MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 9-11 (-9.60 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 7-9 (-9.20 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
PS2 Simulations: 1-0 ATS (+25.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference but new coaches did (Dantonio was impressive) and I would love to turn things around this week with the help of my new little friend. Anybody remember my PS2 simulations a while back? Almost time to bring them back for good. LOL!
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Saturday, September 8
Marshall Thundering Herd +24 (5 Units)
The West Virginia Mountaineers are no doubt going to make a run at the BCS National Title game this year but to make them favored by 24 points in this kind of environment is as bogus as it gets and almost as comiacl as Louisville being favored by 41 points at home against anybody but a I-AA school. The Mountaineers are coming off a 62-24 season opening win at home against Western Michigan and although they scoring output was impressive, it has to be a bit concerning for some that they allowed the Mustangs to score 24 points on their own turf. I mean we Middle Tennessee expose that with the Cardinals yesterday, could West Virginia be just another BIG EAST team with an overhyped defense? I think so. You also have to keep in mind that Pat White is going to play with an injured wrist and although it shouldn't really affect the offensive gameplan for this team, I think it could have effect on the way he handles himself under pressure. The Mountaineers managed 542.0 total yards of offense on 8.1 yards per play and 25 first downs in their season opener but now have to face a Marshall defense that played considerably well against the Miami Hurricanes. They allowed only 5.6 yards per play but have a weak run defense and that could be their one big problem in this game. Even though they allowed 251.0 yards rushing on 6.4 yards per carry and even though West Virginia ran for 7.0 yards per carry on 316.0 rushing yards last week, the Thundering Herd have a shot. We all know the Mountaineers are going to score at will against anyone this season so its not a problem. With his injured wrist, Pat White probably won't be throwing much in this game but when he does, this Marshall pass defense is going to be ready. They allowed only 42.9% of passes to be completed by Miami last week and allowed only 4.1 yards per pass attempt which means that if the Mountaineers get greedy and go for the air, Marshall will be ready. White passed for 192 yards last week before leaving the game and there is no chance of him duplicating that in this one. WVU will get their fair share on the ground in this one (I say close to 300+ yards rushing again) but it won't be enough to put away the very pesky and annoying Marshall Thundering Herd. The pace of the game should be similar to the Louisville game which means that we see a lot of points, not much defense and some offensive fireworks on both sides of the ball. Remember the 45-24 win over Maryland at home last year? Expect some of that in this game.
The Marshall Thundering Herd don't look all that good on paper but I love the way they matchup with the Mountaineers in this return match from their 42-10 loss last year as +22 underdogs. So this year they are +24 underdogs at home (dont quite understand the difference between last year and this year since this is at home but whatever) and they get to play in Joan C. Edwards Stadium where they are 22-2 in their last 24 home openers. I don't know if you guys know this or not but Marshall is 5-0 ATS in the last seven years as home underdogs and if that's not good enough for you guys to consider this a play...let me tell you a bit more about whats going to happen in this game. Miami's defense is probably better than West Virginia's but even then, this is a home game for Marshall and things change from one week to the other. The Thundering Herd managed only 245.0 total yards of offense on 3.7 yards per play in their opener against the Canes while West Virginia held the Broncos of Western Michigan to only 3.7 yards per play and 277.0 total yards of offense. However, the Mountaineers did allow 60.5% of passes against them to be complete and with Marshall probably trailing for the most part of this game, they are going to have to pass no matter what they want to do. Well QB Bernard Morris completed 62.0% of his passes last season and although he struggled with three interceptions in the season opener, he is very capable of passing for big yardage and getting the job done. He is very strong (benches almost 400lbs.) and has been one of the best runners on this team the last two years. Being a Senior and all, this is his swan song season and last chance to make this a special game for the Huntington faitful. The only way to get some yards on this Mountaineers defense is to have a mobile quarterback because they will come after the QB and they proved that with 3 sacks last week. So although Marshall won't get anything going on the ground all game, expect them to air things out to WR's like Courtney Edmonson and Emmanuel Spann who both have great speed. What Marshall needs to do most though and Mark Snyder knows this...is stay away from penalties. They had 11 last week and it cost them big time when they didn't need it. The crowd is going to have tons of energy in this game and guys like Morris and his talented WR's will be up to the task of scoring as many points as the Mountaineers in this one.
The fans of Huntington have waited 92 years for the return of this game to this city and it couldn't of come at a better time. This game is being played an hour earlier than all the other games and with the intensity of the crowd, I think we are going to see Marshall come out and throw some big time punches with the big boys. This is a very tough place for opponents to play and since the arrival of Mark Snyder, Marshall is 3-0 ATS as home underdogs and they are 5-0 ATS as home underdogs the last seven years. Thats impressive stuff and tough to go against. I know West Virginia is explosive and I know they are going to score somewhat at will in this game but I also like the prospect of the Marshall offense waking up with 7 starters back this year and they should look a lot more like the team that averaged 25.9 points per game in 2006 than the one that looked shell shocked in Miami last week and scored only three points. Marshall flirts with the upset in this one.
PS2 Simulation Result: West Virginia 34, Marshall 31
Oklahoma Sooners -10.5 (5 Units)
Oh how the times have changed. Bring this baby back a few years and you would have one of the best matchups of the week coming into the game and the line would be in the -3/+3 category and not sucking on double digits like it is now. What can you do? Miami comes into this game off an impressive season opener against Marshall as they whiped the floor with them and won 31-3 but don't put too much value into that win because Marshall has always been a better team at home and Miami is only 3-7 ATS on the road the last two seasons. So will bringing in Randy Shannon actually prove to be an effective move right off the bat? Some people seem to think so after their SU and ATS win in the seasons opener but I am not convined they can just walk into Norman and keep things close just like that. My problem with betting on this team is that although they bring back 16 starters from last year, they are not exactly fully accustomed to the new things Shannon wants to do and in the end it could cost them. The Hurricanes averaged only 337.0 total yards of offense in their first game (showing how good Marshall can be too) on 5.6 yards per play. If you think for one second that this kind of pedestrian offense is going to hurt an Oklahoma team that allowed only 247.0 total yards last week on 3.6 yards per play, you're making a big mistake. Miami rushed for 251.0 yards on 6.4 yards per carry last week but Oklahoma's D-Line is outstanding and they allowed only 15.0 rushing yards total last week for 0.5 yards per carry. Wow! I'm a fan of RB Javarris James and Graig Cooper but this could be one hell of a tough game for them. Taking away the run game will force this Miami team to the air and that's a disaster. QB Kirby Freeman was as pathetic as it gets last week passing for only 86 yards, completing only 42.9% of his passes for 4.1 yards per pass attempt and one interception. Oklahoma's has one of the best secondaries in the Nation and they picked off three passes last week and managed to penetrate the line for a whopping six sacks. Miami turned the ball over only once in their game last week against a mediocre Marshall defense I am predicting at least 4-5 turnovers in this game which will cost them big time against the spread. Oklahoma is just too good defensively for Miami to even threaten them in this one. Total mismatch of offense versus defense.
The Oklahoma Sooners came out of the gates with a bang last week as they opened their season with a statement making 79-10 win over North Texas in the very same confines as today's game. Memorial Stadium is going to once again be rocking for this game and that makes me thing Miami is in big time trouble with the kind of offense they bring to the table. Oklahoma is an impressive 27-5 versus current ACC teams (three losses to Miami in the 80's but those were too long ago) and I just love the matchup of teams in this one. Looking at their schedule, the Sooners could very well go without a loss this year which would immediately have them mentioned in BCS talks but they don't have a tough enough schedule to make an impression so the only way to make noise is by blowing out opponents and keeping the peddle to the metal. We saw it last week and don't be surprised if Stoops does it again this week. The Sooners were explosive last week as they managed a whopping 668.0 total yards of offense on 9.2 yards per play with 26 first downs. Miami pretty much shut down Marshall and that was a positive but they are going to be on the field so much in this one that it's going to kill the defense. Oklahoma rushed for 265.0 total yards last week on 5.9 yards per carry and I think DeMarco Murray is going to be a stud this year but Miami's D-Line is outstanding and they allowed only 2.1 yards per carry last week. However, I still expect Murray to rush for close to 100+ yards in this game
which should set things up in the passing game. QB Sam Bradford was sensational in the opener as he passed for 363 yards, completed 90.3% of his passes for 3 touchdowns. Miami allowed 181 passing yards last week and their LB corps is their weakness so expect Oklahoma to run a precise passing attack right up the middle and on shorter routes this week to keep things simple in Bradford's first real test of his career. He doesn't have to do much in this game because the Oklahoma defense will probably hook him up with great field position most of the afternoon and the Sooners will score whenever they can. Provided they can overcome the nervous start, once they get things going, it's going to be tough to stop them.
Turnovers are the key in this game. I think Miami is going to have an impossible time dealing with ths Oklahoma defense all game and I don't see them scoring more than 10 points. It won't take much for Oklahoma to get going on offense and with all the good field position I see them getting in this one, the offense won't have to do much anyways to get points on the board. Randy Shannon is here to do good things with this Miami program but before he can do that he needs to find more than just an effective running attack because those don't work against teams like Oklahoma. The Sooners were 4-1-1 ATS as a home favorite in 2006 so with 15 starters back and with the ball rolling on offense in their first game, I fully expect the Sooners to kick some ass here. Their defense intercepted three passes last week and forced two fumbles which I think they can do again this week and cause all sorts of problems in Randy Shannon's road debut. This won't be as exciting as many think and the Sooners are going to roll big time. The Canes have not been shutout since who knows when but I see it happening in this one.
PS2 Simulation Result: Oklahoma 33, Miami 0
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +8 (10 Units)
The Nebraska Cornhuskers come into this game off an impressive debut both for them as a team and for their new superstar QB Sam Keller. Their 52-10 win over Nevada last weekend as -21 point favorites. Bill Callahan obvisouly has the right guy to run this offense, the kind of guy he has been looking for to replace the now departed Zac Taylor. However, let's not get too crazy about this team just yet. Not only is this a south spot to play on the road and in the ACC but the Cornhuskers are only 2-4 ATS under Callahan as road underdogs and 3-7 ATS as road dogs the last seven seasons. Beating Nevada at home was nice and all but Nevada is in somewhat of a rebuilding mode and they were playing on the road and they had to break in a lot of new players so the end result was of no surprise to anyone. The Cornuskers come into this game having put up the 52 spot last week and they did it on a whopping 624.0 total yards of offense and 6.5 yards per play. Impressive...yes, capable of doing it again in this game...no. Wake Forest did look shady allowing 458.0 yards of offense against Boston College last week but they allowed more than 17 points against at home only twice last season and never allowed more than 30 points at home since the 2005 season. The focus of the Huskers success last week was the surprising running game of RB Marlon Lucky who helped the Huskers to 412.0 rushing yards and 5.9 yards per carry. Well thats not happening again. Wake Forest allowed only 52.0 rushing yards last week and 2.0 which is not what Lucky wants to hear seeing how he had such a good game. Despite allowing so many yards in the air and despite allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt last week, Wake Forest did intercept two Matt Ryan passes and they did get 2 sacks. I know for a fact that throwing on Wake Forest is a good idea (more so than running) so Keller will probably have a big game of 200+ passing yards. However they do have some big playmakers like Alphonso Smith who can really complicate things for Keller and his crew. I know Nebraska is going to be stubborn and want to run the ball after the 400+ yards last week but that's not a good idea. Only once in 2006 did Wake Forest allow more than 100 yards rushing against on home turf so I don't see that happening right here.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are coming off an incredible BCS reaching season that saw them go 11-3 straight up and 8-4 ATS but with only 14 starters back this season, a lot of experts are picking them to finish at the bottom of the ACC barrel...well of course ahead of Duke. What I find interesting about this team though is that despite winning so many games in the ACC play last season they were outplayed in a lot of those games but always seem to find a way to win close games. Of course that came to and end last week against Boston College in a 38-28 loss but did you see how hard they fought to cover the spread? Expect the same intensity at home in their opener as they are 9-2 in their last 11 home openers. I would also like to point out that head coach Jim Grobe 6-2 ATS record leading this team as home underdogs the last three seasons and there is no reason why Wake Forest would not want to compete in this game. They come into the game off quite the offensive performance, despite losing QB Riley Skinner to an injury for the most part of the game. No Riley Skinner today means in comes Brett Hodges who isn't as much of a deep threat but he completed 73.9% of his passes for 129 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Most people are concerned that Wake Forest doesn't have a rushing threat this year but everyone is back and Wake has never really been known for their ground game. They rushed for only 1 yard last week but expect things to change. RB's Kenneth Moore and Kevin Harris combined for 900 yards rushing last year but only 5 total yards combined against Boston College. Nebraska's weakness is definitely on the defensive line so expect Grobe to slow his offense down a few notches, run the ball a lot more than he did last week and get his ground game going to keep Nebraska in check. The Huskers allowed 3.3 yards per carry last week but Wake Forest should pound those numbers with both mentioned RB's averaging at least 4.8 yards per carry last season. The Deacons gameplan didn't make much sense last week seeing how their O-Line is pretty strong but I think we see them play some smashmouth in this game. I think we are in for a low-scoring affaire where defenses are at times going to look good. I think Wake's running game is going to soften up the Huskers secondary and let Hodges go to work on the secondary. This should be a tactical game of making mistakes or holding onto the ball and in the end Wake Forest is going to do like they did last year and win close battles.
A lot of people are calling for a low scoring game in this one and so is the PS2. I read somewhere that Nebraska is 6-3 in non-conference away games as a Big 12 member at that in those games they average a combined 41.0 points per game with the other team included. The PS2 has the final total at 42 points which is a pretty damn funny coincidence. I know its tempting to take Nebraska and their high powered west coast offense but I don't know that it's going to work in this place. Wake Forest has allowed 30+ points at home only 7 times in their last 31 home games and that goes back to the 2002 season (so five seasons deep). It's really rare that teams come into this place and blow the roof off the Deacons. I think Hodges is going to take this chance and really come out firing bullets when he has the chance. Afterall, he was supposed to start last year and not Riley Skinner but he ended up getting hurt and lost the job. Losing Skinner is a big deal but the rest of the Wake team is going to come up huge in this one.
PS2 Simulation Result: Wake Forest 35, Nebraska 7
Boston College Eagles -13.5 (5 Units)
The Tom O'Brien era at North Carolina State kicked off with a big WHAM as the Wolfpack were embarassed by a Central Florida team as -7.5 points favorites in his home debut. Well if they think they can come to Chestnut Hill for this game and do what they did last year against Boston College, they have another thing coming. You all remember the outstanding last second touchdown pass that won the game 17-15 for NC State and I can tell you right now that every player on both teams also remembers that game and either fears or drools at the next time these two meet each other which is today. Despite losing in his opening game as the head coach here O'Brien is back where he coached from 1997 to 2006 and that is not going to be easy. For some reason NC State has been one of the best away underdogs in college football the last seven seasons going 14-4 ATS as away dogs but only 1-3 ATS last season which is an indication that things are changing. So in their loss to UCF last week, NC State managed only 354.0 total yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play which is going to be difficult to duplicate since Boston College held Wake Forest to only 366.0 total yards on 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, NC State really misses the two headed running monster of Andre Brown and Toney Baker (he's out) and it showed as they rushed for only 2.7 yards per carry in the opener. Things won't get much better in this one as BC's offensive line is tough as nails and they held Wake Forest to 0.0 yards per carry holding them to 1.0 total yard on 24 carries...wow! That will force NC State to the air where they completed 63.2% of their passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt and two interceptions. Only problem there is that without an adequate running game it will be tough to fully expose Boston College's very suspect secondary that allowed 75.0% of passes against them to be completed in their opener for 6.1 yards per pass attempt but a nice four interceptions. Boston College goes for home runs on defense and they should do enough to keep this NC State offense off balance all game and wondering how they are going to get things going this season.
The Boston College Eagles were cash money for big daddy in week one and I fully intend on following the money train straight to the bank for the second straight week. The Eagles are coming off a nice 38-28 win over Wake Forest as they avenged a home loss of two years ago and now it's time to avenge what was probably the worst loss of the season in 2006 for Boston College. That last second touchdown killed them and although they recoverd and still finished at 10-3 on the year, things were never the same and the 16 returning starters from last year have all had this day circled on thier calendars. No doubt about it. I know someone said it would be tough to learn new schemes on offense with new head coach Jeff Jagodzinski but things sure as hell looked in place in the first game and I don't see why they wouldn't be once again in this game. Boston College not only scored 38 points in the opener but they also amassed 458.0 total yards of offense for 5.9 yards per play and although they won't duplicate that in this game, they can come very close to the same point total by playing good defense alone. NC State allowed only 4.3 yards per play last week but still lost. On the ground, Boston College really struggled to get anything going and I don't expect them to get more than the 52.0 yards and 2.0 yards per carry they had last week. QB Matt Ryan is good enough that this team can pass all game. Ryan completed 61.5% of his passes last week for 400+ yards and 5 touchdowns so expect him to once again be at it this week. I think he can easily throw for 300+ yards in this game against an NC State defense that looked a bit too comortable last week and that wasn't tested allowing only 3.9 yards per pass attempt. Ryan averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt in the opener and he should have no problems exposing a secondary and linebacking corps that is almost as weak (but not as weak) as Wake Forest's. Ryan did make some ill-advised throws last week that resulted in two interceptions but NC State doens't have enough experience (all three top tackler from 2006 are gone this season) to make them pay and it won't be long before the Eagles start bombing away on this secondary and opening things up on the ground. Boston College has all the tools to score a ton of points in this one and I don't see why they wouldn't with so much revenge on their minds.
We all hate Tom O'Brien Day and we're gonna boo him day has arrived in Chestnut Hill and this could quite possibly be the one home game that these fans will not take lightly or accept a loss. No chance in hell they ever letup with their noise in this one seeing how it's a hate game and a revenge game at the same time. Sure he did a lot for this Boston College team and sure some people still like him but I don't know that they will like his team and this is going to be one tough place to play in today. The Eagles have been one of the most reliable home favorite teams over the last few seasons as they are 5-2-2 ATS at home and have played in some pretty damn good games. Everyone pretty much wrote this team off before the season started but they looked good in the opener and it looks like the new coaching staff is going to help open things up and maybe allowed for a 30+ points per game this season. Revenge is huge and I am taking the Eagles to exact some.
PS2 Simulation Result: Boston College 30, NC State 10
Oregon Ducks +7 (5 Units)
The Oregon Ducks can quack all they want when they come to the Big House but one thing is for sure in this game and that's that they better be ready to weather some kind of Michigan storm at the beginning of this game. We all know why I said that and it's not even a joke. I know Oregon has not played in this stadium since 1973 but the last three times they came here they did not score a single point in any of the three games. Not happening today...no chance. West Coast teams from the PAC 10 don't historically have a lot of luck when they venture this far East but the bottom line is that they can still make a game of this and they were pretty damn impressive offensively in their 48-27 season opening win at home against Houston last week. Mike Bellotti has a great group of kids here and they are very underrated. I say that because they outgained PAC 10 opponents by almost 140 yards per game last season but went only 4-5 in the conference (5-4 ATS) and that doesn't do much more than send you to the Las Vegas Bowl for a date with BYU. In their win against Houston the Ducks managed 468.0 total yards of offense on 7.3 yards per play which could be good seeing how shaky the Wolverines were last week allowing 5.8 yards per play to a I-AA team. On the ground, the Ducks pounded away for 336.0 rushing yards on 6.9 yards per carry last week and you can expect more ground assaults this week against a Michigan team that allowed 160 yards on the ground last week. However, I think QB Dennis Dixon is going to have a pretty damn big week against a Michigan defense that obviously has issues. Dixon is a pretty damn accurate passer with a very good group of receivers and he completed 60.0% of his passes last week for 132 yards while rushing for 141 yards of his own. Does anyone remember what that duel-threat QB from Appalachian State did to Michigan last week? Well meet his twin. Michigan allowed 9.9 yards per pass attempt last week which means that superstar WR's like Jaison Williams (6'5 monster) should have a good time catching some toss ups in this one. Oregon was a very disciplined team last week taking only four penalties and if they can keep their cool in the early going of this game, the combination of their ground and air assaults should be way too much for this Michigan defense to handle.
Oh the embarassment of being a Michigan booster, players, fan, coach, analyst, resident...whatever you name it. I still cannot believe that Michigan lost to I-AA defending champs Appalachian State in the Big House last week and I don't know that this team is ever going to recover this season. It's almost impossible to do it and it's even tougher to do it against a very good PAC 10 team that probably has more raw talent and potential than a team like California. Lloyd Carr's is currently in the state of grass and rumors are swirling around Ann Arbor that the lawnmower man is not too far behind. Making things worse for the Wolverines in this game is that Carr is only 2-5 lifetime as a head coach versus the PAC 10. Either way, Carr has been doing some damage control all week and with the media completely killing this team in the papers, on the radio and on tv, you really have to question the morale in the locker room. I mean after all they are the laughing stock of college football and will be for the remainder of this season. The Wolverines did manage 479.0 total yards of offense last week for 6.2 yards per play. Oregon's defense looked very shady last week against Houston allowing all those points but I expect some improvements in this game. We all know RB Mike Hart is probably going to have his way with the ground game today as the Wolverines averaged 6.2 yards per carry last week while Oregon was torched for 310.0 rushing yards and 6.3 yards per carry. However, you can't run forever against this pathetic defensive line and if you're Michigan, you have to throw the ball. That could be fatal. Oregon has a very strong and athletic secondary that allowed only 5.8 yards per pass attempt last week and that intercepted two passes. Chad Henne completed only 51.4% of his passes against Appalachian State and averaged only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. I think Henne is going to have a decent game in the air here but Oregon will adapt a bend but dont break system for this game and I see them holding Michigan to quite a few field goals. Again my concern with this team though is that they are up against a very similar opponent to last week and they might have to play from behind most of the game. Oregon is going to tighten things up on defense after last week's debacle and you can expect Michigan to continue having problems getting points on the board before their opponent.
Did you know that Michigan has won 10 straight games the week prior to playing against Notre Dame? Well did you also know that Michigan is coming off a loss to Appalachian State at home last week. Yeah that's right guys...toss those stats right out the window and let's focus on what works. Oregon comes into this game with a ton more offensive weapons than Appalachian State last week as they have a 1000+ yard rusher in Jonathan Stewart, a very dangerous passing and running threat QB in Dennis Dixon and some pretty damn good wide receivers to go with it (watch this Jaison Williams kid). Oregon is one of the most underrated teams in the Country and they are a very nice 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as the away underdog (last three seasons). The Big House is going to be rocking, maybe booing so the Ducks have to come out flying if they want a chance. I think they can pull off another upset and yes Michigan can go 0-2 to start the year.
PS2 Simulation Result: Oregon 16, Michigan 14
Georgia Bulldogs -3.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
The South Carolina Gamecocks are apparently ready to go to war in this SEC East division battle that could very well determined which one of these two teams plays for the Title against LSU at the end of the year. Steve Spurrier is not one to forget about bad things that happened to him in seasons past so you can expect him to be fired up in this one after suffering only only his second shutout loss of his head coaching career the last time these two teams met (which was last year in Columbia). It was embarassing for him and he won't let it happen again...or will he? I don't want to start talking about it now but Spurrier better be ready for much of the same treatment as he got last year against SEC East opponents and although he is 10-6 ATS in SEC play the last two seasons and 5-1 ATS as a road underdog since his arrival at this school, I just don't think he has what it takes to win this game. This is one of the matchups that has always been dominated by the one team and this year should be no different. The Gamecocks only so-so in their 28-14 season opening win over LA Lafayetter as -28.5 points favorites so again the line seems a bit weird in this game. The cocks amassed 415.0 total yards of offense last week and they did it on 6.1 yards per play. However, they are up against a very tough Georgia defense (despite only four returning starters) who allowed only 264.0 total yards against Oklahoma State last week on only 4.1 yards per play. The Gamecocks had a ton of success running the ball last week which is the only reason they won that game as they rushed for 188.0 yards on 4.6 yards per carry. However, Georgia is almost impossible to run as they allowed only 2.0 yards per carry last week on 67.0 total yards rushing. I just don't see how Spurrie can run that much in this spot anyways. QB Blake Mitchell is back after his one game suspension but it that a good thing? I mean he was pretty damn good at getting yardage last year and competing his passes but he passed for only 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions while amassing over 1750 yards of passing. Georgia allowed only 54.8% of their passes against to be completed last week and allowed only 6.4 yards per pass attempt which could spell trouble for the incoming QB. The Gamecocks have scored only 22 points combined in their last two visits here and with Georgia coming off such a dominating defensive performance, I don't see how Spurrier is going to fair any better this time around.
The Georgia Bulldogs really impressed me in their season opener against Oklahoma State (I was convinced the Cowboys were capable of pulling off the upset but boy was I wrong) and they did it so much that I am going to back them once again this week. I know the games in this series are usually decided by less than 10 points and despite winning 5 straight games in this series and taking a bunch out of the last 10 years, the margin of victory has only been 6.0 points per game for almost all those games so the Bulldogs are going to have to pull off some special stuff to break that trend. I wouldn't worry about it too much. They have 9 starters back on offense this season and thats coming off a season where they scored 25.2 points per game with only four guys back. So no matter who they are playing you should expect at least 30 points from these guys on any given night. The Bulldogs are coming off a huge 35-14 win over Oklahoma State last week and in that game they managed to get only 381.0 total yards of offense on 5.4 yards per play. However their defense was tough as nails and gave them good field position almost all game. South Carolina has a whopping 10 starters back on defense this year so expect them to be good but they looked anything but good last week allowing 5.5 yards per play against a team from the Sun Belt conference. Georgia seems to love to run the ball as they rushed it 46 times last week for only 3.2 yards per carry. That's good news though because South Carolina was torched for 311.0 rushing yards and 6.2 yards per carry last week which is of great concern for that coaching staff. I mean RB's Thomas Brown and Kregg Lumpkin have both averaged 4.9 yards per carry their careers at Georgia and despite the quiet game last week should both have huge games in this one against a South Carolina team that got creamed last week. Even if they don't have a big game, all they have to do is loosen things up for QB Matthew Stafford as is going up against one of the weakest secondaries in the SEC. Stafford was great last week completing 75.0% of his passes for 9.8 yards per pass attempt. The Gamecocks were not tested last week as Lafayette attempted only 17 passes all game and things are going to be different. Ultimately though this comes down to the running game's ability to gain some yards on first down which should then in turn let Stafford work away and connect with guys like WR Sean Bailey who is a big time home run threat.
When I first saw this line, I literally had to borrow a pair of glasses, phone one of my buddies up and ask him that the fuck was going on because it's almost impossible that the line be set so low after what happened last week. Jesus Christ is it Christmas yet or what? History is everything and the fact that South Carolina has almost never been able to beat Georgia is a clear cut sign that they are not worthy of winning this matchup and I don't see why people keep backing them with money knowing things like this. Sure the fact that the line has dropped almost two full points since it opened and the fact that the public is backing the same side as me are two concerns but this is college football and sometimes you have to understand that the better team usually comes out on top which should happen in this game. Steve Spurrier does not often react well to getting shutout or almost shutout the year before and this should be no different. However, scoring on this much improved and revamped Georgia defense doesn't look like its going to come easy.
PS2 Simulation Result: Georgia 55, South Carolina 7
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +17.5 (5 Units)
So most of you guys are going to give up that fast on a coach that has won two recent Super Bowls and a coach that led this team to a 10-3 record in 2006 and apperance in a BCS Bowl Game? So what if a few players are gone from last years team and so what if they sucked ass in their season opening game against Georgia Tech at home. Did you expect the young quarterbacks to all be ready for the nerves that come with playing in South Bend? I know I didn't and although University Park is one of the toughest places to play in all of America with their 107 000+ fans that come out to each every game, teams have still won here in the past and Notre Dame last won here back in 1989 so nothing is impossible. The and Charlie Weiss were both ripped apart by the media coverage around the entire Country but like I said before, lets give the young guys a chance to settle down here and show us what they are all about. In their opener against a very defensively sound Georgia Tech team, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish had big time problems on offense and lost 33-3. Things can't possibly get any worse than that game as they managed only 121.0 yards of offense and a pathetic 1.9 yards per play. Good coaches make adjustments and you can bet your bottom dollar Charlie has made some adjustments. Penn State comes into this season having lost the heart and soul of their defense (Poz is with my Bills now) so they might be vulnerable. The running game was non existant for Notre Dame last week so don't expect it to show in this one either and it doesn't matter because Penn State allowed only 4 total rushing yards in their first game. All eyes are on QB sensation Jimmy Claussen who is making his first ever start. Sure he was nervous last week coming in relief and sure he was as ineffective as it gets but this could be his breakout week. Penn State doesn't have as much pressure coming at QB's as they used to so Claussen should get a break from the all the sacks from the Georgia Tech defense. I think Claussen can move the ball on a simpler gameplan designed by Weiss himself and that should let him settle down. Penn State's defense is good but they are beatble and they are not going to hold Notre Dame to only three total yards of offense like they did last week with Florida International. Claussen has a big chance to live up to the hype here and WR Georges West is probably going to be his main target in this game. Regardless though Weiss is not about to put up a three spot again this week so expect some simpler stuff and a whole lot more points.
The Penn State Nittany Lions have a wide open door to the Big 10 Title now that Michigan has already dropped a game and although nothing is guaranteed in the rankings, winning games like this one mean a lot and I have no doubt that's what they'll be trying to accomplish. In their matchup last season Penn State had some horrendous turnovers and ended up getting crushed 41-17 in South Bend. Whether you like it or not a lot of guys from that Notre Dame team of 2006 are back again this season so they know what it feels like to be in that position against this team. Penn State has always played well in Beaver Stadium and they do have their best team in a long time but if they come in to this game underestimating the Irish, they are going to find themselves in big time trouble by the end of the night. Penn State pitched a goose egg in their 59-0 opening night win over Florida International but it's tough to get impressed when they beat one of the BOTTOM 5 teams in all of I-A college football. Nonetheless, the offense looked great as they amassed 577.0 total yards of offense for 6.6 yards per play. Notre Dame didn't play all that poorly on defense but it's their offense that kept going three and out and that put a lot of strain on the defenders (only five of them are back). Penn State ran for 238 rushing yards in their opener on 5.3 yards per carry which is a concern because Notre Dame allowed 260.0 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per carry. However, with the ND offense getting things going a bit I think the Irish will be fine against the run and QB Anthony Morelli is going to find himself throwing a lot more than he did last week. Against Florida International he passed for 7.9 yards per pass attempt. I was actually impressed by the Tommy Z led secondary of Notre Dame last week as they held Georgia Tech to only a 45.8% completion rate and only 5.0 yards per pass attempt. As long as the Irish can keep this Penn State offense off the field long enough to breathe, they will most definitely have a shot. I think the defensive line is good enough to get pressure on Morelli who depsite playing so well the last few years is still prone to mistakes and has thrown only 11 touchdown passes to 8 interceptions. Penn State is going to be good this season but they are catching the Irish at the wrong time and I think their automatic 'W' is going to be in jeopardy for the most part of this game.
Since Charlie Weiss took over this Notre Dame football team, they have gone 3-1 ATS as away underdogs and this seems to be the kind of roll Weiss loves to be in. With all eyes on Penn State for this game, he can calm down his team, get their heads focused on what they set out to do and control this game on both sides of the ball. Im telling you guys that the only reason Notre Dame allowed that many yards defensively last week is because the defense spent the most part of the game on the field after a bunch of three and outs by the offense. Well with Claussen having full control of this team this week and having worked so closely with Weiss the past week in practice, I think the defense and its captains are going to make an impact and hold some drives in this game. Apparently this is going to be one of those back and forth affaires that makes us wonder where this Notre Dame offense was last week. Well for starters (literally) we know who is starting at QB1 this week and second of all, Penn State has to come back down to earth and try to avenge last year's big loss to the Irish.
PS2 Simulation Result: Penn State 42, Notre Dame 37
South Florida Bulls +6.5 (10 Units)
The South Florida Bulls are not to be underestimated by anyone in this Country and they have proven that time and time again over the last few years. This is one of the most upcoming programs in college football and I give it another few years before they make a serious run at the Big East Title. Right now head coach Jim Leavitt is the king of this team and I say that because he really started from scratch with nothing and has built this into a great group of guys. Every single game on their schedule is winnable this year as they have wins over Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville, Rutgers, Cincinnati and TCU over the last three seasons and can easily pull off the same kinds of upsets against the likes of Auburn, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Louisville and Rutgers. I know the Bulls have not faired well in the past against SEC teams going 0-4 since their big move up from I-AA but this is their best team ever with 16 starters back on both sides of the ball combined. In their opener against Elon they looked pretty out of sketch but that should be fixed by this week when the real games begin. In that game, South Florida managed 375.0 total yards of offense for 5.4 yards per play and they are up against an Auburn defense that allowed 320.0 total yards last week against Kansas State for 4.4 yards per play. The key to this game for South Florida will be to get the running game going. They averaged 4.8 yards per carry on 148 total rushing yards last week and RB Mike Ford had a big coming out party after cancelling his signing with Alabama. Auburn allowed only 2.5 yards per carry last week but South Florida is just so aggressive with the ground game that they can hurt you for one or two big plays and that's all it takes. QB Matt Grothe had a bit of a tough time getting going last week and he needs to be careful here because Auburn had two interceptions last week and their secondary is pretty damn good. His 6.0 yards per pass attempt could be good enough to expose a very weak Auburn linebacking corps that might get caught out of position in coverage. I really like some of the athletes this team has on both offense and defense. The Bulls were one of the teams that lost the most man games to injuries in 2006 but they still went 9-4 and they still pulled off some big upsets. Auburn just doesn't have what it used to have in years past and South Florida should take advantage big time.
The Auburn Tigers burned a lot of people's money last week when they lost the ATS cover by 0.5 points against Kansas State in a game they could have easily lost in the end. I talked about this before the season, this is not one of Auburn's best teams over the last decade or so and they aren't going to come anywhere close to the 11-2 record and Cotton Bowl berth they had last season. Auburn has a nice history of winning the second of back-to-back home games (10-1 in their last 11 tries or something like that) and they are 5-1-1 versus current Big East teams but once again this team has only five starters back on offense and have to go up against one of the most underrated defenses in all of college football. The Tigers did win the opener but it didn't come without a nice little scare. With all the talent they had the last two seasons, Auburn was 9-3-1 ATS as home favorites but since the squad is a lot different this time around, things have already taken a turn for the worse as the Tigers failed to cover the -13.5 last week. Auburn has only five starters back on offense this year and it showed in the 295.0 total yards they had in their opener on only 4.6 yards per play. South Florida didn't look awake last week against the I-AA Elon team but expect some of their top notch stuff in this one as they have the absolute best secondary and best LB corps in the Big East this season. The Bulls allowed only 261.0 total yards of offense last week for 3.1 yards per play. Auburn had a horrendous time running the ball in their opener as they averaged only 2.1 yards per carry and are up against a South Florida defense that allowed only 41 rushing yards for 1.3 yards per carry last week. In the air, QB Brandon Cox looked almost as shaky as he did at times last year passing for one touchdown, two interceptions while completing 56.7% of his passes for 7.5 yards per pass attempt. That's not too bad but the South Florida Bulls are very talented in the secondary and despite allowing Elon to complete more than 60.0% of their pass attempts, still held them to 4.2 yards per pass attempt while picking off one pass. The Bulls are ready for anything Auburn has to throw at them. The Tigers have way too many question marks on offense and special teams to make an impact right away at the beginning of the season. I know they can score some points against most teams but once again if you underestimate the South Florida defense they are going to make you pay for it with their talent and speed. Auburn struggles and South Florida takes advantage of their mistakes in this one.
Judging by the line they have put out for this game, this Bulls team from South Florida is no longer one of the best kept secrets in college football. They have had winning ATS seasons in four of the six years since joining I-A football back in 2001 and if that isnt impressive enough, I dont know what is. Since their move up to the big show, South Florida has a very good ATS record but they also have a very good ATS record against non-conference opponents, going 18-9 ATS since 2002. Auburn averaged only 24.8 points per game in 2006 which is a big problem because they returned 6 starters then and return only five starters this time around. They have a pedestrian offense that has yet to set an identity aside for games like this and South Florida is not about to back down from a big name SEC opponent like this. The convenient bet for most of you is to take the Tigers hoping they bounce back nicely from last week's mediocre game but give your heads a shake and do some homework guys...this South Florida team is the real deal and I say they win this game.
PS2 Simulation Result: South Florida 41, Auburn 17
Louisiana State Tigers -11 (5 Units)
The Virginia Tech go from one madhouse to the other after opening the season on an emotional note last week and then heading south for yet another big game in Baton Rouge. The Hokies somehow survived the first test and looked very sketchy in doing so but so called experts are giving them the benefit of the doubt and hoping it was only a bad performance somehow related to the tragic events and the high emotions. Well linesmakers seem to think otherwise because this is a pretty damn high line for such a top notch matchup and somebody out there probably knows how good LSU really is. The Hokies come into the game off that 17-7 win over East Carolina last week. Virginia Tech has not lost a road opening game since way back in the early 1990's but every trend or streak has to come to an end and the fact that they have won only 26 of 79 lifetime meetings with teams from the SEC is definitely cause for concern. The Hokies managed a paltry 278.0 total yards last week on only 4.3 yards per play and things most definitely don't get easier this week as LSU allowed only 146.0 total yards of offense in their season opener (two extra days of rest by the way) for only 2.5 yards play. Its scary to think that if VTech scored only 17 last week, they probably won't score more than that this week against the Nation's best defense. Mississippi State tried to run 26 times on LSU last week and managed only 10 total yards rushing. That's a big problem for a Hokies team that looked dormant in the running attack with 33.0 total yards and 1.1 yards per carry last week. The Hokies looked a lot better passing the ball as QB Sean Glennon completed 66.7% of his passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt but the offensive line allowed 4 sacks and that's bad news against an LSU defense that is very aggressive and that had 4 sacks of their own last week. The Tigers also allowed only 42.4% of passes to be completed, allowed only 4.1 yards per pass attempt and had a whopping 6 interceptions in that one game. I think it's safe to say that if Virginia Tech is going to fix their offensive issues it's not gonna happen in this game or in Baton Rouge. With teams like Ohio, William & Mary and North Carolina coming up the next three weeks, I have a feeling Virginia Tech won't brother trying when they go down by a lot.
The LSU Tigers looked very much like a team that should be #1 in the rankings and they looked very much like a team that is not going to lose a game this season. Their 45-0 romp of Sylvester Croom and the Mississippi State Bulldogs on National TV was a bold statement that this team is sick of finishing in the TOP 5 but not winning the BCS Championship and this team is here once again to prove something. Les Miles wasn't around when Virginia Tech spanked around LSU in Blacksburg back in 2002 so he doesn't really know what it's like but some LSU fans are sure to have that in mind and im sure it was talked about this week. I would not be taking all these points had this been an SEC Conference game because those usually finish within a few points of each other but in non-conference action, LSU is 5-1 ATS the last two seasons under Les Miles and this is when the Tigers let loose...against teams that don't know them that well and teams that don't play some SEC smashmouth football. As impressive as LSU was in their opener, this will be bit different tonight as they take on Bud Foster's defense, which has been among the Nation's best the last few years. LSU had 347.0 total yards in their opener for 4.8 yards per play so they have yet to prove themselves other than scoring when being handed good field position by the defense. Virginia Tech allowed 142 rushing yards last week for 4.1 yards per carry which is why I think RB Keiland Williams could have a big time game here today as the Tigers rushed for 198.0 total yards and 4.0 yards per carry. The ability to run the ball so well against this Hokies type of defense is going to open air attack options. The Tigers senior QB Matt Flynn looked just fine in the season opener but things might get a bit tougher tonight as Virginia Tech held East Carolina to only 3.8 yards per pass attempt and allowed them to complete only 51.6% of their passes. Flynn kept things simple last week but don't be surprised if the offense takes quite a few shots on the deep ball to WR Early Doucet once Williams and company have softened up the pass defense. There is no other big game in sight until October 6 against Florida for LSU so there is no looking ahead and I think we see these kids show why everyone is talking about them in National Title talks this season.
The big College GameDay matchup of the day has arrived and what a doozy this could turn out to be. However, I don't think Virginia Tech's lacklustre performance against East Carolina last week was a fluke, I actually think that they are not as good as everyone thinks on either side of the ball. On one note you have the Hokies who have won 16 straight road opers but who can't beat SEC opponents for crap and on the other note you have LSU who are playing in a rare non-conference game (they are 5-1 ATS under Les Miles against non-conference teams). Virginia Tech is probably still somewhat drained from all the happenings of last week and like I mentioned earlier, they have a much easier schedule once they are done with this game so most of the players are probably looking forward to blowing out a few opponents before getting into what they just got into with this game. Should be a good one but I dont see how Virginia Tech can keep up with the pace LSU brings to every game...the Tigers should be rolling by halftime. I'll put the Tigers headgear on.
PS2 Simulation Result: Louisiana State 38, Virginia Tech 20
RECAP
Rutgers -16
Marshall +24
Oklahoma -10.5
Wake Forest +8
Boston College -13.5
Oregon +7
Georgia -3.5 ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
Notre Dame +17.5
South Florida +6.5
Louisiana State -11
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 7-9 (-9.20 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
PS2 Simulations: 1-0 ATS (+25.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference but new coaches did (Dantonio was impressive) and I would love to turn things around this week with the help of my new little friend. Anybody remember my PS2 simulations a while back? Almost time to bring them back for good. LOL!
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Saturday, September 8
Marshall Thundering Herd +24 (5 Units)
The West Virginia Mountaineers are no doubt going to make a run at the BCS National Title game this year but to make them favored by 24 points in this kind of environment is as bogus as it gets and almost as comiacl as Louisville being favored by 41 points at home against anybody but a I-AA school. The Mountaineers are coming off a 62-24 season opening win at home against Western Michigan and although they scoring output was impressive, it has to be a bit concerning for some that they allowed the Mustangs to score 24 points on their own turf. I mean we Middle Tennessee expose that with the Cardinals yesterday, could West Virginia be just another BIG EAST team with an overhyped defense? I think so. You also have to keep in mind that Pat White is going to play with an injured wrist and although it shouldn't really affect the offensive gameplan for this team, I think it could have effect on the way he handles himself under pressure. The Mountaineers managed 542.0 total yards of offense on 8.1 yards per play and 25 first downs in their season opener but now have to face a Marshall defense that played considerably well against the Miami Hurricanes. They allowed only 5.6 yards per play but have a weak run defense and that could be their one big problem in this game. Even though they allowed 251.0 yards rushing on 6.4 yards per carry and even though West Virginia ran for 7.0 yards per carry on 316.0 rushing yards last week, the Thundering Herd have a shot. We all know the Mountaineers are going to score at will against anyone this season so its not a problem. With his injured wrist, Pat White probably won't be throwing much in this game but when he does, this Marshall pass defense is going to be ready. They allowed only 42.9% of passes to be completed by Miami last week and allowed only 4.1 yards per pass attempt which means that if the Mountaineers get greedy and go for the air, Marshall will be ready. White passed for 192 yards last week before leaving the game and there is no chance of him duplicating that in this one. WVU will get their fair share on the ground in this one (I say close to 300+ yards rushing again) but it won't be enough to put away the very pesky and annoying Marshall Thundering Herd. The pace of the game should be similar to the Louisville game which means that we see a lot of points, not much defense and some offensive fireworks on both sides of the ball. Remember the 45-24 win over Maryland at home last year? Expect some of that in this game.
The Marshall Thundering Herd don't look all that good on paper but I love the way they matchup with the Mountaineers in this return match from their 42-10 loss last year as +22 underdogs. So this year they are +24 underdogs at home (dont quite understand the difference between last year and this year since this is at home but whatever) and they get to play in Joan C. Edwards Stadium where they are 22-2 in their last 24 home openers. I don't know if you guys know this or not but Marshall is 5-0 ATS in the last seven years as home underdogs and if that's not good enough for you guys to consider this a play...let me tell you a bit more about whats going to happen in this game. Miami's defense is probably better than West Virginia's but even then, this is a home game for Marshall and things change from one week to the other. The Thundering Herd managed only 245.0 total yards of offense on 3.7 yards per play in their opener against the Canes while West Virginia held the Broncos of Western Michigan to only 3.7 yards per play and 277.0 total yards of offense. However, the Mountaineers did allow 60.5% of passes against them to be complete and with Marshall probably trailing for the most part of this game, they are going to have to pass no matter what they want to do. Well QB Bernard Morris completed 62.0% of his passes last season and although he struggled with three interceptions in the season opener, he is very capable of passing for big yardage and getting the job done. He is very strong (benches almost 400lbs.) and has been one of the best runners on this team the last two years. Being a Senior and all, this is his swan song season and last chance to make this a special game for the Huntington faitful. The only way to get some yards on this Mountaineers defense is to have a mobile quarterback because they will come after the QB and they proved that with 3 sacks last week. So although Marshall won't get anything going on the ground all game, expect them to air things out to WR's like Courtney Edmonson and Emmanuel Spann who both have great speed. What Marshall needs to do most though and Mark Snyder knows this...is stay away from penalties. They had 11 last week and it cost them big time when they didn't need it. The crowd is going to have tons of energy in this game and guys like Morris and his talented WR's will be up to the task of scoring as many points as the Mountaineers in this one.
The fans of Huntington have waited 92 years for the return of this game to this city and it couldn't of come at a better time. This game is being played an hour earlier than all the other games and with the intensity of the crowd, I think we are going to see Marshall come out and throw some big time punches with the big boys. This is a very tough place for opponents to play and since the arrival of Mark Snyder, Marshall is 3-0 ATS as home underdogs and they are 5-0 ATS as home underdogs the last seven years. Thats impressive stuff and tough to go against. I know West Virginia is explosive and I know they are going to score somewhat at will in this game but I also like the prospect of the Marshall offense waking up with 7 starters back this year and they should look a lot more like the team that averaged 25.9 points per game in 2006 than the one that looked shell shocked in Miami last week and scored only three points. Marshall flirts with the upset in this one.
PS2 Simulation Result: West Virginia 34, Marshall 31
Oklahoma Sooners -10.5 (5 Units)
Oh how the times have changed. Bring this baby back a few years and you would have one of the best matchups of the week coming into the game and the line would be in the -3/+3 category and not sucking on double digits like it is now. What can you do? Miami comes into this game off an impressive season opener against Marshall as they whiped the floor with them and won 31-3 but don't put too much value into that win because Marshall has always been a better team at home and Miami is only 3-7 ATS on the road the last two seasons. So will bringing in Randy Shannon actually prove to be an effective move right off the bat? Some people seem to think so after their SU and ATS win in the seasons opener but I am not convined they can just walk into Norman and keep things close just like that. My problem with betting on this team is that although they bring back 16 starters from last year, they are not exactly fully accustomed to the new things Shannon wants to do and in the end it could cost them. The Hurricanes averaged only 337.0 total yards of offense in their first game (showing how good Marshall can be too) on 5.6 yards per play. If you think for one second that this kind of pedestrian offense is going to hurt an Oklahoma team that allowed only 247.0 total yards last week on 3.6 yards per play, you're making a big mistake. Miami rushed for 251.0 yards on 6.4 yards per carry last week but Oklahoma's D-Line is outstanding and they allowed only 15.0 rushing yards total last week for 0.5 yards per carry. Wow! I'm a fan of RB Javarris James and Graig Cooper but this could be one hell of a tough game for them. Taking away the run game will force this Miami team to the air and that's a disaster. QB Kirby Freeman was as pathetic as it gets last week passing for only 86 yards, completing only 42.9% of his passes for 4.1 yards per pass attempt and one interception. Oklahoma's has one of the best secondaries in the Nation and they picked off three passes last week and managed to penetrate the line for a whopping six sacks. Miami turned the ball over only once in their game last week against a mediocre Marshall defense I am predicting at least 4-5 turnovers in this game which will cost them big time against the spread. Oklahoma is just too good defensively for Miami to even threaten them in this one. Total mismatch of offense versus defense.
The Oklahoma Sooners came out of the gates with a bang last week as they opened their season with a statement making 79-10 win over North Texas in the very same confines as today's game. Memorial Stadium is going to once again be rocking for this game and that makes me thing Miami is in big time trouble with the kind of offense they bring to the table. Oklahoma is an impressive 27-5 versus current ACC teams (three losses to Miami in the 80's but those were too long ago) and I just love the matchup of teams in this one. Looking at their schedule, the Sooners could very well go without a loss this year which would immediately have them mentioned in BCS talks but they don't have a tough enough schedule to make an impression so the only way to make noise is by blowing out opponents and keeping the peddle to the metal. We saw it last week and don't be surprised if Stoops does it again this week. The Sooners were explosive last week as they managed a whopping 668.0 total yards of offense on 9.2 yards per play with 26 first downs. Miami pretty much shut down Marshall and that was a positive but they are going to be on the field so much in this one that it's going to kill the defense. Oklahoma rushed for 265.0 total yards last week on 5.9 yards per carry and I think DeMarco Murray is going to be a stud this year but Miami's D-Line is outstanding and they allowed only 2.1 yards per carry last week. However, I still expect Murray to rush for close to 100+ yards in this game
which should set things up in the passing game. QB Sam Bradford was sensational in the opener as he passed for 363 yards, completed 90.3% of his passes for 3 touchdowns. Miami allowed 181 passing yards last week and their LB corps is their weakness so expect Oklahoma to run a precise passing attack right up the middle and on shorter routes this week to keep things simple in Bradford's first real test of his career. He doesn't have to do much in this game because the Oklahoma defense will probably hook him up with great field position most of the afternoon and the Sooners will score whenever they can. Provided they can overcome the nervous start, once they get things going, it's going to be tough to stop them.
Turnovers are the key in this game. I think Miami is going to have an impossible time dealing with ths Oklahoma defense all game and I don't see them scoring more than 10 points. It won't take much for Oklahoma to get going on offense and with all the good field position I see them getting in this one, the offense won't have to do much anyways to get points on the board. Randy Shannon is here to do good things with this Miami program but before he can do that he needs to find more than just an effective running attack because those don't work against teams like Oklahoma. The Sooners were 4-1-1 ATS as a home favorite in 2006 so with 15 starters back and with the ball rolling on offense in their first game, I fully expect the Sooners to kick some ass here. Their defense intercepted three passes last week and forced two fumbles which I think they can do again this week and cause all sorts of problems in Randy Shannon's road debut. This won't be as exciting as many think and the Sooners are going to roll big time. The Canes have not been shutout since who knows when but I see it happening in this one.
PS2 Simulation Result: Oklahoma 33, Miami 0
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +8 (10 Units)
The Nebraska Cornhuskers come into this game off an impressive debut both for them as a team and for their new superstar QB Sam Keller. Their 52-10 win over Nevada last weekend as -21 point favorites. Bill Callahan obvisouly has the right guy to run this offense, the kind of guy he has been looking for to replace the now departed Zac Taylor. However, let's not get too crazy about this team just yet. Not only is this a south spot to play on the road and in the ACC but the Cornhuskers are only 2-4 ATS under Callahan as road underdogs and 3-7 ATS as road dogs the last seven seasons. Beating Nevada at home was nice and all but Nevada is in somewhat of a rebuilding mode and they were playing on the road and they had to break in a lot of new players so the end result was of no surprise to anyone. The Cornuskers come into this game having put up the 52 spot last week and they did it on a whopping 624.0 total yards of offense and 6.5 yards per play. Impressive...yes, capable of doing it again in this game...no. Wake Forest did look shady allowing 458.0 yards of offense against Boston College last week but they allowed more than 17 points against at home only twice last season and never allowed more than 30 points at home since the 2005 season. The focus of the Huskers success last week was the surprising running game of RB Marlon Lucky who helped the Huskers to 412.0 rushing yards and 5.9 yards per carry. Well thats not happening again. Wake Forest allowed only 52.0 rushing yards last week and 2.0 which is not what Lucky wants to hear seeing how he had such a good game. Despite allowing so many yards in the air and despite allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt last week, Wake Forest did intercept two Matt Ryan passes and they did get 2 sacks. I know for a fact that throwing on Wake Forest is a good idea (more so than running) so Keller will probably have a big game of 200+ passing yards. However they do have some big playmakers like Alphonso Smith who can really complicate things for Keller and his crew. I know Nebraska is going to be stubborn and want to run the ball after the 400+ yards last week but that's not a good idea. Only once in 2006 did Wake Forest allow more than 100 yards rushing against on home turf so I don't see that happening right here.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are coming off an incredible BCS reaching season that saw them go 11-3 straight up and 8-4 ATS but with only 14 starters back this season, a lot of experts are picking them to finish at the bottom of the ACC barrel...well of course ahead of Duke. What I find interesting about this team though is that despite winning so many games in the ACC play last season they were outplayed in a lot of those games but always seem to find a way to win close games. Of course that came to and end last week against Boston College in a 38-28 loss but did you see how hard they fought to cover the spread? Expect the same intensity at home in their opener as they are 9-2 in their last 11 home openers. I would also like to point out that head coach Jim Grobe 6-2 ATS record leading this team as home underdogs the last three seasons and there is no reason why Wake Forest would not want to compete in this game. They come into the game off quite the offensive performance, despite losing QB Riley Skinner to an injury for the most part of the game. No Riley Skinner today means in comes Brett Hodges who isn't as much of a deep threat but he completed 73.9% of his passes for 129 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Most people are concerned that Wake Forest doesn't have a rushing threat this year but everyone is back and Wake has never really been known for their ground game. They rushed for only 1 yard last week but expect things to change. RB's Kenneth Moore and Kevin Harris combined for 900 yards rushing last year but only 5 total yards combined against Boston College. Nebraska's weakness is definitely on the defensive line so expect Grobe to slow his offense down a few notches, run the ball a lot more than he did last week and get his ground game going to keep Nebraska in check. The Huskers allowed 3.3 yards per carry last week but Wake Forest should pound those numbers with both mentioned RB's averaging at least 4.8 yards per carry last season. The Deacons gameplan didn't make much sense last week seeing how their O-Line is pretty strong but I think we see them play some smashmouth in this game. I think we are in for a low-scoring affaire where defenses are at times going to look good. I think Wake's running game is going to soften up the Huskers secondary and let Hodges go to work on the secondary. This should be a tactical game of making mistakes or holding onto the ball and in the end Wake Forest is going to do like they did last year and win close battles.
A lot of people are calling for a low scoring game in this one and so is the PS2. I read somewhere that Nebraska is 6-3 in non-conference away games as a Big 12 member at that in those games they average a combined 41.0 points per game with the other team included. The PS2 has the final total at 42 points which is a pretty damn funny coincidence. I know its tempting to take Nebraska and their high powered west coast offense but I don't know that it's going to work in this place. Wake Forest has allowed 30+ points at home only 7 times in their last 31 home games and that goes back to the 2002 season (so five seasons deep). It's really rare that teams come into this place and blow the roof off the Deacons. I think Hodges is going to take this chance and really come out firing bullets when he has the chance. Afterall, he was supposed to start last year and not Riley Skinner but he ended up getting hurt and lost the job. Losing Skinner is a big deal but the rest of the Wake team is going to come up huge in this one.
PS2 Simulation Result: Wake Forest 35, Nebraska 7
Boston College Eagles -13.5 (5 Units)
The Tom O'Brien era at North Carolina State kicked off with a big WHAM as the Wolfpack were embarassed by a Central Florida team as -7.5 points favorites in his home debut. Well if they think they can come to Chestnut Hill for this game and do what they did last year against Boston College, they have another thing coming. You all remember the outstanding last second touchdown pass that won the game 17-15 for NC State and I can tell you right now that every player on both teams also remembers that game and either fears or drools at the next time these two meet each other which is today. Despite losing in his opening game as the head coach here O'Brien is back where he coached from 1997 to 2006 and that is not going to be easy. For some reason NC State has been one of the best away underdogs in college football the last seven seasons going 14-4 ATS as away dogs but only 1-3 ATS last season which is an indication that things are changing. So in their loss to UCF last week, NC State managed only 354.0 total yards of offense on 5.1 yards per play which is going to be difficult to duplicate since Boston College held Wake Forest to only 366.0 total yards on 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, NC State really misses the two headed running monster of Andre Brown and Toney Baker (he's out) and it showed as they rushed for only 2.7 yards per carry in the opener. Things won't get much better in this one as BC's offensive line is tough as nails and they held Wake Forest to 0.0 yards per carry holding them to 1.0 total yard on 24 carries...wow! That will force NC State to the air where they completed 63.2% of their passes for 7.1 yards per pass attempt and two interceptions. Only problem there is that without an adequate running game it will be tough to fully expose Boston College's very suspect secondary that allowed 75.0% of passes against them to be completed in their opener for 6.1 yards per pass attempt but a nice four interceptions. Boston College goes for home runs on defense and they should do enough to keep this NC State offense off balance all game and wondering how they are going to get things going this season.
The Boston College Eagles were cash money for big daddy in week one and I fully intend on following the money train straight to the bank for the second straight week. The Eagles are coming off a nice 38-28 win over Wake Forest as they avenged a home loss of two years ago and now it's time to avenge what was probably the worst loss of the season in 2006 for Boston College. That last second touchdown killed them and although they recoverd and still finished at 10-3 on the year, things were never the same and the 16 returning starters from last year have all had this day circled on thier calendars. No doubt about it. I know someone said it would be tough to learn new schemes on offense with new head coach Jeff Jagodzinski but things sure as hell looked in place in the first game and I don't see why they wouldn't be once again in this game. Boston College not only scored 38 points in the opener but they also amassed 458.0 total yards of offense for 5.9 yards per play and although they won't duplicate that in this game, they can come very close to the same point total by playing good defense alone. NC State allowed only 4.3 yards per play last week but still lost. On the ground, Boston College really struggled to get anything going and I don't expect them to get more than the 52.0 yards and 2.0 yards per carry they had last week. QB Matt Ryan is good enough that this team can pass all game. Ryan completed 61.5% of his passes last week for 400+ yards and 5 touchdowns so expect him to once again be at it this week. I think he can easily throw for 300+ yards in this game against an NC State defense that looked a bit too comortable last week and that wasn't tested allowing only 3.9 yards per pass attempt. Ryan averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt in the opener and he should have no problems exposing a secondary and linebacking corps that is almost as weak (but not as weak) as Wake Forest's. Ryan did make some ill-advised throws last week that resulted in two interceptions but NC State doens't have enough experience (all three top tackler from 2006 are gone this season) to make them pay and it won't be long before the Eagles start bombing away on this secondary and opening things up on the ground. Boston College has all the tools to score a ton of points in this one and I don't see why they wouldn't with so much revenge on their minds.
We all hate Tom O'Brien Day and we're gonna boo him day has arrived in Chestnut Hill and this could quite possibly be the one home game that these fans will not take lightly or accept a loss. No chance in hell they ever letup with their noise in this one seeing how it's a hate game and a revenge game at the same time. Sure he did a lot for this Boston College team and sure some people still like him but I don't know that they will like his team and this is going to be one tough place to play in today. The Eagles have been one of the most reliable home favorite teams over the last few seasons as they are 5-2-2 ATS at home and have played in some pretty damn good games. Everyone pretty much wrote this team off before the season started but they looked good in the opener and it looks like the new coaching staff is going to help open things up and maybe allowed for a 30+ points per game this season. Revenge is huge and I am taking the Eagles to exact some.
PS2 Simulation Result: Boston College 30, NC State 10
Oregon Ducks +7 (5 Units)
The Oregon Ducks can quack all they want when they come to the Big House but one thing is for sure in this game and that's that they better be ready to weather some kind of Michigan storm at the beginning of this game. We all know why I said that and it's not even a joke. I know Oregon has not played in this stadium since 1973 but the last three times they came here they did not score a single point in any of the three games. Not happening today...no chance. West Coast teams from the PAC 10 don't historically have a lot of luck when they venture this far East but the bottom line is that they can still make a game of this and they were pretty damn impressive offensively in their 48-27 season opening win at home against Houston last week. Mike Bellotti has a great group of kids here and they are very underrated. I say that because they outgained PAC 10 opponents by almost 140 yards per game last season but went only 4-5 in the conference (5-4 ATS) and that doesn't do much more than send you to the Las Vegas Bowl for a date with BYU. In their win against Houston the Ducks managed 468.0 total yards of offense on 7.3 yards per play which could be good seeing how shaky the Wolverines were last week allowing 5.8 yards per play to a I-AA team. On the ground, the Ducks pounded away for 336.0 rushing yards on 6.9 yards per carry last week and you can expect more ground assaults this week against a Michigan team that allowed 160 yards on the ground last week. However, I think QB Dennis Dixon is going to have a pretty damn big week against a Michigan defense that obviously has issues. Dixon is a pretty damn accurate passer with a very good group of receivers and he completed 60.0% of his passes last week for 132 yards while rushing for 141 yards of his own. Does anyone remember what that duel-threat QB from Appalachian State did to Michigan last week? Well meet his twin. Michigan allowed 9.9 yards per pass attempt last week which means that superstar WR's like Jaison Williams (6'5 monster) should have a good time catching some toss ups in this one. Oregon was a very disciplined team last week taking only four penalties and if they can keep their cool in the early going of this game, the combination of their ground and air assaults should be way too much for this Michigan defense to handle.
Oh the embarassment of being a Michigan booster, players, fan, coach, analyst, resident...whatever you name it. I still cannot believe that Michigan lost to I-AA defending champs Appalachian State in the Big House last week and I don't know that this team is ever going to recover this season. It's almost impossible to do it and it's even tougher to do it against a very good PAC 10 team that probably has more raw talent and potential than a team like California. Lloyd Carr's is currently in the state of grass and rumors are swirling around Ann Arbor that the lawnmower man is not too far behind. Making things worse for the Wolverines in this game is that Carr is only 2-5 lifetime as a head coach versus the PAC 10. Either way, Carr has been doing some damage control all week and with the media completely killing this team in the papers, on the radio and on tv, you really have to question the morale in the locker room. I mean after all they are the laughing stock of college football and will be for the remainder of this season. The Wolverines did manage 479.0 total yards of offense last week for 6.2 yards per play. Oregon's defense looked very shady last week against Houston allowing all those points but I expect some improvements in this game. We all know RB Mike Hart is probably going to have his way with the ground game today as the Wolverines averaged 6.2 yards per carry last week while Oregon was torched for 310.0 rushing yards and 6.3 yards per carry. However, you can't run forever against this pathetic defensive line and if you're Michigan, you have to throw the ball. That could be fatal. Oregon has a very strong and athletic secondary that allowed only 5.8 yards per pass attempt last week and that intercepted two passes. Chad Henne completed only 51.4% of his passes against Appalachian State and averaged only 6.3 yards per pass attempt. I think Henne is going to have a decent game in the air here but Oregon will adapt a bend but dont break system for this game and I see them holding Michigan to quite a few field goals. Again my concern with this team though is that they are up against a very similar opponent to last week and they might have to play from behind most of the game. Oregon is going to tighten things up on defense after last week's debacle and you can expect Michigan to continue having problems getting points on the board before their opponent.
Did you know that Michigan has won 10 straight games the week prior to playing against Notre Dame? Well did you also know that Michigan is coming off a loss to Appalachian State at home last week. Yeah that's right guys...toss those stats right out the window and let's focus on what works. Oregon comes into this game with a ton more offensive weapons than Appalachian State last week as they have a 1000+ yard rusher in Jonathan Stewart, a very dangerous passing and running threat QB in Dennis Dixon and some pretty damn good wide receivers to go with it (watch this Jaison Williams kid). Oregon is one of the most underrated teams in the Country and they are a very nice 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as the away underdog (last three seasons). The Big House is going to be rocking, maybe booing so the Ducks have to come out flying if they want a chance. I think they can pull off another upset and yes Michigan can go 0-2 to start the year.
PS2 Simulation Result: Oregon 16, Michigan 14
Georgia Bulldogs -3.5 (25 Units) ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
The South Carolina Gamecocks are apparently ready to go to war in this SEC East division battle that could very well determined which one of these two teams plays for the Title against LSU at the end of the year. Steve Spurrier is not one to forget about bad things that happened to him in seasons past so you can expect him to be fired up in this one after suffering only only his second shutout loss of his head coaching career the last time these two teams met (which was last year in Columbia). It was embarassing for him and he won't let it happen again...or will he? I don't want to start talking about it now but Spurrier better be ready for much of the same treatment as he got last year against SEC East opponents and although he is 10-6 ATS in SEC play the last two seasons and 5-1 ATS as a road underdog since his arrival at this school, I just don't think he has what it takes to win this game. This is one of the matchups that has always been dominated by the one team and this year should be no different. The Gamecocks only so-so in their 28-14 season opening win over LA Lafayetter as -28.5 points favorites so again the line seems a bit weird in this game. The cocks amassed 415.0 total yards of offense last week and they did it on 6.1 yards per play. However, they are up against a very tough Georgia defense (despite only four returning starters) who allowed only 264.0 total yards against Oklahoma State last week on only 4.1 yards per play. The Gamecocks had a ton of success running the ball last week which is the only reason they won that game as they rushed for 188.0 yards on 4.6 yards per carry. However, Georgia is almost impossible to run as they allowed only 2.0 yards per carry last week on 67.0 total yards rushing. I just don't see how Spurrie can run that much in this spot anyways. QB Blake Mitchell is back after his one game suspension but it that a good thing? I mean he was pretty damn good at getting yardage last year and competing his passes but he passed for only 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions while amassing over 1750 yards of passing. Georgia allowed only 54.8% of their passes against to be completed last week and allowed only 6.4 yards per pass attempt which could spell trouble for the incoming QB. The Gamecocks have scored only 22 points combined in their last two visits here and with Georgia coming off such a dominating defensive performance, I don't see how Spurrier is going to fair any better this time around.
The Georgia Bulldogs really impressed me in their season opener against Oklahoma State (I was convinced the Cowboys were capable of pulling off the upset but boy was I wrong) and they did it so much that I am going to back them once again this week. I know the games in this series are usually decided by less than 10 points and despite winning 5 straight games in this series and taking a bunch out of the last 10 years, the margin of victory has only been 6.0 points per game for almost all those games so the Bulldogs are going to have to pull off some special stuff to break that trend. I wouldn't worry about it too much. They have 9 starters back on offense this season and thats coming off a season where they scored 25.2 points per game with only four guys back. So no matter who they are playing you should expect at least 30 points from these guys on any given night. The Bulldogs are coming off a huge 35-14 win over Oklahoma State last week and in that game they managed to get only 381.0 total yards of offense on 5.4 yards per play. However their defense was tough as nails and gave them good field position almost all game. South Carolina has a whopping 10 starters back on defense this year so expect them to be good but they looked anything but good last week allowing 5.5 yards per play against a team from the Sun Belt conference. Georgia seems to love to run the ball as they rushed it 46 times last week for only 3.2 yards per carry. That's good news though because South Carolina was torched for 311.0 rushing yards and 6.2 yards per carry last week which is of great concern for that coaching staff. I mean RB's Thomas Brown and Kregg Lumpkin have both averaged 4.9 yards per carry their careers at Georgia and despite the quiet game last week should both have huge games in this one against a South Carolina team that got creamed last week. Even if they don't have a big game, all they have to do is loosen things up for QB Matthew Stafford as is going up against one of the weakest secondaries in the SEC. Stafford was great last week completing 75.0% of his passes for 9.8 yards per pass attempt. The Gamecocks were not tested last week as Lafayette attempted only 17 passes all game and things are going to be different. Ultimately though this comes down to the running game's ability to gain some yards on first down which should then in turn let Stafford work away and connect with guys like WR Sean Bailey who is a big time home run threat.
When I first saw this line, I literally had to borrow a pair of glasses, phone one of my buddies up and ask him that the fuck was going on because it's almost impossible that the line be set so low after what happened last week. Jesus Christ is it Christmas yet or what? History is everything and the fact that South Carolina has almost never been able to beat Georgia is a clear cut sign that they are not worthy of winning this matchup and I don't see why people keep backing them with money knowing things like this. Sure the fact that the line has dropped almost two full points since it opened and the fact that the public is backing the same side as me are two concerns but this is college football and sometimes you have to understand that the better team usually comes out on top which should happen in this game. Steve Spurrier does not often react well to getting shutout or almost shutout the year before and this should be no different. However, scoring on this much improved and revamped Georgia defense doesn't look like its going to come easy.
PS2 Simulation Result: Georgia 55, South Carolina 7
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +17.5 (5 Units)
So most of you guys are going to give up that fast on a coach that has won two recent Super Bowls and a coach that led this team to a 10-3 record in 2006 and apperance in a BCS Bowl Game? So what if a few players are gone from last years team and so what if they sucked ass in their season opening game against Georgia Tech at home. Did you expect the young quarterbacks to all be ready for the nerves that come with playing in South Bend? I know I didn't and although University Park is one of the toughest places to play in all of America with their 107 000+ fans that come out to each every game, teams have still won here in the past and Notre Dame last won here back in 1989 so nothing is impossible. The and Charlie Weiss were both ripped apart by the media coverage around the entire Country but like I said before, lets give the young guys a chance to settle down here and show us what they are all about. In their opener against a very defensively sound Georgia Tech team, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish had big time problems on offense and lost 33-3. Things can't possibly get any worse than that game as they managed only 121.0 yards of offense and a pathetic 1.9 yards per play. Good coaches make adjustments and you can bet your bottom dollar Charlie has made some adjustments. Penn State comes into this season having lost the heart and soul of their defense (Poz is with my Bills now) so they might be vulnerable. The running game was non existant for Notre Dame last week so don't expect it to show in this one either and it doesn't matter because Penn State allowed only 4 total rushing yards in their first game. All eyes are on QB sensation Jimmy Claussen who is making his first ever start. Sure he was nervous last week coming in relief and sure he was as ineffective as it gets but this could be his breakout week. Penn State doesn't have as much pressure coming at QB's as they used to so Claussen should get a break from the all the sacks from the Georgia Tech defense. I think Claussen can move the ball on a simpler gameplan designed by Weiss himself and that should let him settle down. Penn State's defense is good but they are beatble and they are not going to hold Notre Dame to only three total yards of offense like they did last week with Florida International. Claussen has a big chance to live up to the hype here and WR Georges West is probably going to be his main target in this game. Regardless though Weiss is not about to put up a three spot again this week so expect some simpler stuff and a whole lot more points.
The Penn State Nittany Lions have a wide open door to the Big 10 Title now that Michigan has already dropped a game and although nothing is guaranteed in the rankings, winning games like this one mean a lot and I have no doubt that's what they'll be trying to accomplish. In their matchup last season Penn State had some horrendous turnovers and ended up getting crushed 41-17 in South Bend. Whether you like it or not a lot of guys from that Notre Dame team of 2006 are back again this season so they know what it feels like to be in that position against this team. Penn State has always played well in Beaver Stadium and they do have their best team in a long time but if they come in to this game underestimating the Irish, they are going to find themselves in big time trouble by the end of the night. Penn State pitched a goose egg in their 59-0 opening night win over Florida International but it's tough to get impressed when they beat one of the BOTTOM 5 teams in all of I-A college football. Nonetheless, the offense looked great as they amassed 577.0 total yards of offense for 6.6 yards per play. Notre Dame didn't play all that poorly on defense but it's their offense that kept going three and out and that put a lot of strain on the defenders (only five of them are back). Penn State ran for 238 rushing yards in their opener on 5.3 yards per carry which is a concern because Notre Dame allowed 260.0 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per carry. However, with the ND offense getting things going a bit I think the Irish will be fine against the run and QB Anthony Morelli is going to find himself throwing a lot more than he did last week. Against Florida International he passed for 7.9 yards per pass attempt. I was actually impressed by the Tommy Z led secondary of Notre Dame last week as they held Georgia Tech to only a 45.8% completion rate and only 5.0 yards per pass attempt. As long as the Irish can keep this Penn State offense off the field long enough to breathe, they will most definitely have a shot. I think the defensive line is good enough to get pressure on Morelli who depsite playing so well the last few years is still prone to mistakes and has thrown only 11 touchdown passes to 8 interceptions. Penn State is going to be good this season but they are catching the Irish at the wrong time and I think their automatic 'W' is going to be in jeopardy for the most part of this game.
Since Charlie Weiss took over this Notre Dame football team, they have gone 3-1 ATS as away underdogs and this seems to be the kind of roll Weiss loves to be in. With all eyes on Penn State for this game, he can calm down his team, get their heads focused on what they set out to do and control this game on both sides of the ball. Im telling you guys that the only reason Notre Dame allowed that many yards defensively last week is because the defense spent the most part of the game on the field after a bunch of three and outs by the offense. Well with Claussen having full control of this team this week and having worked so closely with Weiss the past week in practice, I think the defense and its captains are going to make an impact and hold some drives in this game. Apparently this is going to be one of those back and forth affaires that makes us wonder where this Notre Dame offense was last week. Well for starters (literally) we know who is starting at QB1 this week and second of all, Penn State has to come back down to earth and try to avenge last year's big loss to the Irish.
PS2 Simulation Result: Penn State 42, Notre Dame 37
South Florida Bulls +6.5 (10 Units)
The South Florida Bulls are not to be underestimated by anyone in this Country and they have proven that time and time again over the last few years. This is one of the most upcoming programs in college football and I give it another few years before they make a serious run at the Big East Title. Right now head coach Jim Leavitt is the king of this team and I say that because he really started from scratch with nothing and has built this into a great group of guys. Every single game on their schedule is winnable this year as they have wins over Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville, Rutgers, Cincinnati and TCU over the last three seasons and can easily pull off the same kinds of upsets against the likes of Auburn, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Louisville and Rutgers. I know the Bulls have not faired well in the past against SEC teams going 0-4 since their big move up from I-AA but this is their best team ever with 16 starters back on both sides of the ball combined. In their opener against Elon they looked pretty out of sketch but that should be fixed by this week when the real games begin. In that game, South Florida managed 375.0 total yards of offense for 5.4 yards per play and they are up against an Auburn defense that allowed 320.0 total yards last week against Kansas State for 4.4 yards per play. The key to this game for South Florida will be to get the running game going. They averaged 4.8 yards per carry on 148 total rushing yards last week and RB Mike Ford had a big coming out party after cancelling his signing with Alabama. Auburn allowed only 2.5 yards per carry last week but South Florida is just so aggressive with the ground game that they can hurt you for one or two big plays and that's all it takes. QB Matt Grothe had a bit of a tough time getting going last week and he needs to be careful here because Auburn had two interceptions last week and their secondary is pretty damn good. His 6.0 yards per pass attempt could be good enough to expose a very weak Auburn linebacking corps that might get caught out of position in coverage. I really like some of the athletes this team has on both offense and defense. The Bulls were one of the teams that lost the most man games to injuries in 2006 but they still went 9-4 and they still pulled off some big upsets. Auburn just doesn't have what it used to have in years past and South Florida should take advantage big time.
The Auburn Tigers burned a lot of people's money last week when they lost the ATS cover by 0.5 points against Kansas State in a game they could have easily lost in the end. I talked about this before the season, this is not one of Auburn's best teams over the last decade or so and they aren't going to come anywhere close to the 11-2 record and Cotton Bowl berth they had last season. Auburn has a nice history of winning the second of back-to-back home games (10-1 in their last 11 tries or something like that) and they are 5-1-1 versus current Big East teams but once again this team has only five starters back on offense and have to go up against one of the most underrated defenses in all of college football. The Tigers did win the opener but it didn't come without a nice little scare. With all the talent they had the last two seasons, Auburn was 9-3-1 ATS as home favorites but since the squad is a lot different this time around, things have already taken a turn for the worse as the Tigers failed to cover the -13.5 last week. Auburn has only five starters back on offense this year and it showed in the 295.0 total yards they had in their opener on only 4.6 yards per play. South Florida didn't look awake last week against the I-AA Elon team but expect some of their top notch stuff in this one as they have the absolute best secondary and best LB corps in the Big East this season. The Bulls allowed only 261.0 total yards of offense last week for 3.1 yards per play. Auburn had a horrendous time running the ball in their opener as they averaged only 2.1 yards per carry and are up against a South Florida defense that allowed only 41 rushing yards for 1.3 yards per carry last week. In the air, QB Brandon Cox looked almost as shaky as he did at times last year passing for one touchdown, two interceptions while completing 56.7% of his passes for 7.5 yards per pass attempt. That's not too bad but the South Florida Bulls are very talented in the secondary and despite allowing Elon to complete more than 60.0% of their pass attempts, still held them to 4.2 yards per pass attempt while picking off one pass. The Bulls are ready for anything Auburn has to throw at them. The Tigers have way too many question marks on offense and special teams to make an impact right away at the beginning of the season. I know they can score some points against most teams but once again if you underestimate the South Florida defense they are going to make you pay for it with their talent and speed. Auburn struggles and South Florida takes advantage of their mistakes in this one.
Judging by the line they have put out for this game, this Bulls team from South Florida is no longer one of the best kept secrets in college football. They have had winning ATS seasons in four of the six years since joining I-A football back in 2001 and if that isnt impressive enough, I dont know what is. Since their move up to the big show, South Florida has a very good ATS record but they also have a very good ATS record against non-conference opponents, going 18-9 ATS since 2002. Auburn averaged only 24.8 points per game in 2006 which is a big problem because they returned 6 starters then and return only five starters this time around. They have a pedestrian offense that has yet to set an identity aside for games like this and South Florida is not about to back down from a big name SEC opponent like this. The convenient bet for most of you is to take the Tigers hoping they bounce back nicely from last week's mediocre game but give your heads a shake and do some homework guys...this South Florida team is the real deal and I say they win this game.
PS2 Simulation Result: South Florida 41, Auburn 17
Louisiana State Tigers -11 (5 Units)
The Virginia Tech go from one madhouse to the other after opening the season on an emotional note last week and then heading south for yet another big game in Baton Rouge. The Hokies somehow survived the first test and looked very sketchy in doing so but so called experts are giving them the benefit of the doubt and hoping it was only a bad performance somehow related to the tragic events and the high emotions. Well linesmakers seem to think otherwise because this is a pretty damn high line for such a top notch matchup and somebody out there probably knows how good LSU really is. The Hokies come into the game off that 17-7 win over East Carolina last week. Virginia Tech has not lost a road opening game since way back in the early 1990's but every trend or streak has to come to an end and the fact that they have won only 26 of 79 lifetime meetings with teams from the SEC is definitely cause for concern. The Hokies managed a paltry 278.0 total yards last week on only 4.3 yards per play and things most definitely don't get easier this week as LSU allowed only 146.0 total yards of offense in their season opener (two extra days of rest by the way) for only 2.5 yards play. Its scary to think that if VTech scored only 17 last week, they probably won't score more than that this week against the Nation's best defense. Mississippi State tried to run 26 times on LSU last week and managed only 10 total yards rushing. That's a big problem for a Hokies team that looked dormant in the running attack with 33.0 total yards and 1.1 yards per carry last week. The Hokies looked a lot better passing the ball as QB Sean Glennon completed 66.7% of his passes for 7.4 yards per pass attempt but the offensive line allowed 4 sacks and that's bad news against an LSU defense that is very aggressive and that had 4 sacks of their own last week. The Tigers also allowed only 42.4% of passes to be completed, allowed only 4.1 yards per pass attempt and had a whopping 6 interceptions in that one game. I think it's safe to say that if Virginia Tech is going to fix their offensive issues it's not gonna happen in this game or in Baton Rouge. With teams like Ohio, William & Mary and North Carolina coming up the next three weeks, I have a feeling Virginia Tech won't brother trying when they go down by a lot.
The LSU Tigers looked very much like a team that should be #1 in the rankings and they looked very much like a team that is not going to lose a game this season. Their 45-0 romp of Sylvester Croom and the Mississippi State Bulldogs on National TV was a bold statement that this team is sick of finishing in the TOP 5 but not winning the BCS Championship and this team is here once again to prove something. Les Miles wasn't around when Virginia Tech spanked around LSU in Blacksburg back in 2002 so he doesn't really know what it's like but some LSU fans are sure to have that in mind and im sure it was talked about this week. I would not be taking all these points had this been an SEC Conference game because those usually finish within a few points of each other but in non-conference action, LSU is 5-1 ATS the last two seasons under Les Miles and this is when the Tigers let loose...against teams that don't know them that well and teams that don't play some SEC smashmouth football. As impressive as LSU was in their opener, this will be bit different tonight as they take on Bud Foster's defense, which has been among the Nation's best the last few years. LSU had 347.0 total yards in their opener for 4.8 yards per play so they have yet to prove themselves other than scoring when being handed good field position by the defense. Virginia Tech allowed 142 rushing yards last week for 4.1 yards per carry which is why I think RB Keiland Williams could have a big time game here today as the Tigers rushed for 198.0 total yards and 4.0 yards per carry. The ability to run the ball so well against this Hokies type of defense is going to open air attack options. The Tigers senior QB Matt Flynn looked just fine in the season opener but things might get a bit tougher tonight as Virginia Tech held East Carolina to only 3.8 yards per pass attempt and allowed them to complete only 51.6% of their passes. Flynn kept things simple last week but don't be surprised if the offense takes quite a few shots on the deep ball to WR Early Doucet once Williams and company have softened up the pass defense. There is no other big game in sight until October 6 against Florida for LSU so there is no looking ahead and I think we see these kids show why everyone is talking about them in National Title talks this season.
The big College GameDay matchup of the day has arrived and what a doozy this could turn out to be. However, I don't think Virginia Tech's lacklustre performance against East Carolina last week was a fluke, I actually think that they are not as good as everyone thinks on either side of the ball. On one note you have the Hokies who have won 16 straight road opers but who can't beat SEC opponents for crap and on the other note you have LSU who are playing in a rare non-conference game (they are 5-1 ATS under Les Miles against non-conference teams). Virginia Tech is probably still somewhat drained from all the happenings of last week and like I mentioned earlier, they have a much easier schedule once they are done with this game so most of the players are probably looking forward to blowing out a few opponents before getting into what they just got into with this game. Should be a good one but I dont see how Virginia Tech can keep up with the pace LSU brings to every game...the Tigers should be rolling by halftime. I'll put the Tigers headgear on.
PS2 Simulation Result: Louisiana State 38, Virginia Tech 20
RECAP
Rutgers -16
Marshall +24
Oklahoma -10.5
Wake Forest +8
Boston College -13.5
Oregon +7
Georgia -3.5 ***PLAY OF THE DAY***
Notre Dame +17.5
South Florida +6.5
Louisiana State -11
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