MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 57-59-5 (-286.00 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 55-57-4 (-180.10 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
This Week: 0-2-1 (-82.50 Units)
Welcome to my College Football thread. This has been by far my worst regular season in CFB which probably means I am heading for a GREAT BOWL SEASON. However, I am going to keep at it for the time being and hope to finish the last few weeks strong. I have confidence in my capping and my abilities to turn things around for the season. My goal now is to make it back to +0.00 Units for the season. You can get if you want but nobody asked you to follow. Good Luck!
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Friday, November 9
Rutgers Scarlet Knights -20 (10 Units)
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights were my play of the year in the BIG EAST CONFERENCE last week against UConn and we all know how that went. Not only did they not win and cover the +1 points against the Huskies but they lost the game 38-19 and pretty much blew their shot at winning this Conference (not like it was gonna happen anyways). I know the big knock on this team was that they had not faced any valid opponents on the road this season and although that remains true (well UConn is good but they lost to them), what Rutgers really needs is to move outside the Big East and pickup where they left off prior to starting play in the Big East. Heading into Conference play, the Scarlet Knights were 3-1 straight up and 2-1 ATS in those games and they had looked good in blowout wins over Buffalo, Navy and Norfolk State. This is a tough team to understand because they have the actual talent to reach a BCS Bowl Game (well they did heading into the season) but they can't seem to string together three straight good games. They went from beating South Florida one week to getting crushed against the Mountaineers another week. The last time Rutgers came here was in 2003 and they won by 16 points but that was a Rutgers team that went 5-7 and doesn't have anywhere near as much fire power as today's team. The Scarlet Knights come into this game averaging 30.6 points per game this season and they have done that on 462.6 total yards of offense per game and a whopping 6.5 yards per play. The scary part for Army is that they have allowed 26.2 points per game this season and have allowed a whopping 413.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play. WOW are they in trouble here. On the ground, we all know what RB Ray Rice can do and he has led this team to 179.3 rushing yards per game this season and 4.6 yards per carry in those games. I have a feeling Rice is going to come close to 200+ yards rushing in this game as Army has allowed 212.7 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry and have one of the worst run defenses in College Football. In the air, QB Mike Teel has not been great but he has completed 58.1% of his passes for 2467 passing yards, 8.8 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. He is up aganist an Army secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 66.1% of thier passes this season for 7.2 yards per pass attempt which is perfect for Teel because he is very accurate with the long ball and the running game should help setup huge passes to WR's Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Britt. Teel makes mistakes but Army has picked off less than one pass per game this season and they don't have a pass rush that could ever get anywhere near this Rutgers offensive line. Army does force a lot of turnovers but even if the Scarlet Knights fumble once or twice in this game, they'll have too much of a lead that it wont matter. Rutgers should have no problems running holes into the Michie Stadium turf and I don't see how this Army defense can come close to stopping these guys at all. Rutgers offense could have its best performance of the season in this one.
The Army Black Knights (funny how they play against the Scarlet Knights) were not supposed to be any better than the 3-9 squad of 2006 and let me tell you that better, they are definitely not. Army comes into this game having already matched the three win total of last season but their remaining games are not really winnable so they can once again forget about going to a Bowl Game. New head coach Stan Brock has done what he can with this team but they have not responded well. Their three wins this season have come against I-AA Rhode Island back in September (barely), they somehow beat Temple as six point favorites back in September and they managed to beat Tulane on homecoming weekend as six points favorites although failing to cover the spread in that game. If you look at some of their games against better teams, you will notice that they lost to Boston College by 20, Central Michigan by 24, Georgia Tech by 24 and Air Force by 20. The last three games listed were the last three games this team has played and they have not been pretty. Looking back on their last meeting with Rutgers in 2003, the score was a lot closer than the actual way the game went as Rutgers completely dominated but gave up a bunch of late points. Army comes into this game averaging only 17.2 points per game this season and they have done it on only 271.8 total yards of offense per game and only 4.1 yards per play which has to be amongst the weakest in the Country. Rutgers has allowed only 22.1 points per game this season and they have also allowed 326.3 total yards of offense per game on 4.8 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Army has absolutely no hope of moving the ball as they average only 76.6 rushing yards per game this season on 2.3 yards per carry. Rutgers has been good against the run as they have allowed 162.2 rushing yards per game but on only 3.9 yards per carry this season. That leaves everything up to QB Carson Williams in a bad spot here because he has completed only 50.9% of his passes this season for only 1281 passing yards, 6.0 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Rutgers secondary has been deadly and has allowed opponents to complete only 52.5% of their passes this season for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt this season. The Army offensive line has had big time problems and injury issues and they have allowed 2.7 sacks per home game which can't be good because Rutgers defensive line is tough and they average almost 3.0 sacks per game this season meaning Williams is in trouble here. Rutgers has not had luck with interceptions this season but I expect them to get a few in this game as Army QB's are throwing 1.7 interceptions per game this season. The Black Knights have also fumbled 17 times this season and lost 8 of those fumbles which means that they are a lock to lose the ball once or twice in this game which should definitely result in quick point scoring strikes by Rutgers. Army has absolutely nothing that can threaten the Scarlet Knights defense for more than a touchdown in this game and I don't think the offense is going to look good at all.
I know what Vegas is doing here guys. This is a freebie for everyone who pushed on Central Michigan Tuesday night, lost on Ohio Wednesday night and lost on West Virginia and TCU on Thursday night. All four of those plays were public plays and all four of them went down the toilet. So this is a gift from Vegas to let bettors regain confidence heading into the weekend. Don't believe my theory? Just sit there and watch and lets see what happens here. We have seen this in the past where the public gets their asses handed to them all week and then come Friday night, they continue to pound away on the obvious play only to finally be rewarded for their effort and given hope heading into the weekend. Rutgers is not looking to come to Toronto to play in the INTERNATIONAL BOWL and that's exactly what's going to happen with the way things are going. They have three very winnable games left on their schedule and this is a great chance to showcase Ray Rice one more time on TV before he takes off for the NFL. Prior to this season, Rutgers had not covered the spread as a road favorite since the 2003 season going 0-5 ATS since then but they broke that streak this year with a win and cover against Syracuse earlier this year. This game should make them 2-0 ATS as road favorites this season. Rutgers has been one of the only teams you can rely on when it comes to non-conference play.
Trend of the Game: Rutgers is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Rutgers 31, Army 7
Saturday, November 10
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +9 (10 Units)
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have been one of the most profitable football wagers over the course of the last two seasons. They were an impressive 8-4 ATS in 2006 and are currently 6-3 ATS this season with three games remaining before a Bowl Game. No matter what you think of this Wake Forest program and no matter how much you think they are badly overachieving like they were last season, you have to respect the fact that they were 5-0 ATS as road underdogs last season and are 1-1 ATS in that spot this season with their only loss coming against Boston College where they had several in-game injury issues and pretty much had that game covered for quite some time. The Demon Deacons are coming off a devastating loss to Virginia last weekend despite covering the +1.5 spread and losing 17-16. Jim Grobe has done a good enough job with this team that they can easily bounce back from this and come out flying in this game. History is not on the Deacons side here seeing how they are 2-21 when playing in Clemson since 1963 and it has been almost 10 years since they last won a game here. I am not concerned at all however because this is a team that doesn't stop surprising and this number is way to high to begin with. Wake Forest comes into this game averaging 28.8 points per game this season and they have done that on 342.0 total yards of offense per game 4.8 yards per play which is not all that impressive but consider that they were without their starting QB for a while. Clemson's defense has been very good allowing 18.8 points per game this season and allowing only 284.7 total yards of offense in those games on 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, Wake Forest has not been as effective running the ball as they have in the past as they average only 149.9 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry this season. They are up against a Clemson defense that has allowed 127.6 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry this season so at least we know Wake can move forward at times. In the air, QB Riley Skinner has been outstanding, completing 73.2% of his passes this season for 1412 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. He is up against a Clemson secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 55.0% of their passes for 5.3 yards per pass attempt this season. Interceptions are going to be key in this game because Skinner tends to make a lot of ill-advised throws, despite the good completion rate, and Clemon has intercepted 11 passes this season so he needs to be careful. Wake Forest has been very good at holding onto the ball and avoiding turnovers as they have lost only 5 fumbles in nine games this season which is huge because it can change a game just like that. Wake Forest is a lot better on offense this season than they were last season and I think this unit can put enough points on the board to keep this game within a touchdown and possibly win the game straight up. We saw the Clemson defense fold a few weeks ago against the Virginia Tech offense and I believe that Wake Forest is capable of putting just as much pressure on the Tigers in this game.
The Clemson Tigers are a team that I have never really gotten along with this season and past seasons but they finally cashed a big winner for me last week as they beat the crap out of Duke as 17 point road favorites and brought home the bacon on that one. Ever since their BYE WEEK back in mid-October, this Clemson team has come out looking like a team on a mission and a team that is going put some serious pressure on Boston College for the ACC Atlantic Division championship. They are currently only one game behind Boston College as they have a 7-2 record on the season. I have concerns for Clemson backers in this game for the simple fact that the Tigers have played only two conference home games all season and one of them was back on the first week of September when they hosted Florida State on a Monday Night. Clemson won that game by only six points and in their latest conference home game, got blown out by Virginia Tech to the tune of 41-23 as five point favorites in that game. So dating back to the last two conference home games of last season, the Tigers have now gone four conference home games without winning by more than six points which really has to concern some of you seeing how the spread is almost at 10. Playing against Duke, Maryland and Central Michigan does not really prepare you for the speedy athletes on this Wake Forest team, that's for sure. Clemson comes into this game averaging 36.2 points per game this season and they have done that on 425.9 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play which is impressive considering they returned only 5 starters on offense this season. Wake Forest has been pretty stingy on defense as they have allowed 22.2 points per game this season and allowed 345.4 total yards of offense in those games on 4.7 yards per play (only 0.3 less than Clemson's defense this season). On the ground, we all know how much Clemson likes to pound away with RB's CJ Spiller and James Davis who have led the team to 167.9 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry. Wake Forest has been pretty good against the run however as they have allowed only 121.0 rushing yards per game this season on only 3.3 yards per carry which should throw off the balance of the Clemson offense. In the air, QB Cullen Harper has completed 65.2% of his passes this season for 2166 passing yards, 7.5 yards per pass attempt, 23 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. Wow that's incredible. He is going up against a Wake Forest defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 53.3% of their passes this season for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt and I strongly think this defense can come up with some big plays. Dean Hood's defense is getting better and better by the week of experience. Clemson's offensive line is one of the weakest in the ACC Conference and they have allowed 26 sacks in only nine games games this season which is almost 3.0 sacks per game. Wake Forest has some very good pass rushers and they are averaging 2.4 sacks per game this season which means Harper is going to have pressure on him all afternoon. The Deacons have forced 19 fumbles this season and recovered an impressive 12 of them so a Clemson team that has fumbled 13 times this season needs to be careful. I think the Clemson offense is going to score some points in this one but this is a Wake Forest team that takes full advantage of their opportunities and I really like their playmaking abilities on the defensive side of things.
You can argue all you want that Clemson is the better team and that Clemson is just too strong for the Deacons. Well it makes sense right? Clemson went to Wake Forest last season and beat the Deacons 27-17 as 16 point road underdogs so since Clemson is better this year and since Wake Forest is not as good as last year, the Tigers should win this one easy right? NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! Wake Forest is averaging 7.2 more points per game this season than they were averaging last season so they have a much better chance of keeping up this time around seeing how their defense has played well enough to win games. This game means everything in the race for the ACC Atlantic Division as both Clemson and Wake Forest trail Boston College in the standings but can easily makeup ground with a win here and some Boston College losses this weekend or down the road. Wake Forest would jump into second place if they can win this game and should Clemson beat Boston College next week and Wake Forest win their game, they could be a in a tie for first place by the end of next weekend. Wake Forest is 4-0 ATS in their last four games and are playing like every game is their last while Clemson is already looking ahead to the Boston College game next weekend. Also keep in mind that Wake Forest blew a 17-3 third quarter lead in last year's game so don't expect that to happen again.
Trend of the Game: Wake Forest is 11-1 ATS the last two seasons as an underdog.
Wake Forest 30, Clemson 27
Michigan Wolverines -2.5 (10 Units)
The Michigan Wolverines as you guys already know have been written off by everyone as potential BCS Bowl contender and as BCS Championship Game Contender. It makes sense right I mean after losing their season opening game against I-AA Appalachian State and then following that up with another loss this time against Oregon, why would anyone care what they have done since? Well to tell you the truth, Appalachian State was defending I-AA champions, Oregon is one of the top five teams in the Country and probably heading to a BCS Game (pending disaster the last few weeks of the season) and believe it or not, the Wolverines have gone 8-0 since that loss to Oregon and are 6-2 ATS in the process. So had it not been for the two losses at the beginning of the year, this Michigan team would probably be ranked #1 or #2 behind Ohio State and that would make the big game next weekend almost as big as last year's meeting when the two teams met as the #1 and #2 teams in the Country. Well that's all in the past but what I do know is that Michigan is surging to that home game against Ohio State next weekend and despite the danger of looking ahead. Michigan has completely dominated this series with Wisconsin whether you like to admit it or not and I don't see why anyone would go against them after they beat both Illinois and Michigan State as road favorites over the span of the last three weeks. The Wolverines come into this game averaging 28.9 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 407.1 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play in those games. Wisconsin's defense has been solid but has also been very beatable this season as they have allowed 22.5 points per game on the year and allowed 338.4 total yards of offense per game on 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, RB Mike Hart continues to lead this team to good things and the Wolverines average 193.1 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry. Wisconsin's defense has had problems stopping the run all season long as they have been rushed on for 148.1 rushing yards per game this season on 4.4 yards per carry which means Hart can really control the tempo of this game. In the air, QB Chad Henne has completed has completed 61.5% of his passes this season for 1469 yards, 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions which is good and pretty much how Henne has been his entire career. Wisconsin's pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 57.5% of their passes this season for only 6.2 yards per pass attempt which means they will probably keep things short in this game and force Michigan to move the sticks many times on drives. That's where the running game comes in because it will soften up this secondary and allow Henne to go play action and hit some deep balls like he loves doing. Wisconsin's defense has been steady but only steady. I mean they don't force turnovers (only 7 interceptions and 5 recovered fumbles all season) and when you don't win the turnover battle in any of your games, you're definitely not getting anywhere fast. Michigan is just too much to handle because they rarely make mistakes with the ball (despite losing 11 fumbles this season and throwing 9 interceptions). Okay Michigan does have a problem holding onto the football but like I said before, Wisconsin just doesn't have any big playmakers on this defense and they won't be able to force the Wolverines into making those mistakes. Michigan beat these guys at home by 14 points last season and seeing how they are a much better road team, I think they get the job done once again.
The Wisconsin Badgers came into this season with not only BIG 10 Championship aspirations but also BCS National Title aspirations. That probably makes you laugh now but the were returning 16 starters combined on both sides of the ball and looked like a team that could give both Michigan and Ohio State a good run for their money. Well those aspirations and dreams ended on October 6 when the Badgers went to Illinois and lost to Ron Zook and the Fighting Illini 31-26. That loss was followed by another loss to Penn State in a crushing 38-7 blowout loss which pretty ended both BIG 10 and National Title thoughts. The Badgers showed what they are really made of last week with a 38-17 loss to Ohio State on the road which put the final nails in the conference aspirations coffin. Michigan has been relentless in this series in the past and have won 7 of the last 8 games in this matchup. Had it not been for a lucky last second strile in 2005, the Badgers would not have a win over Michigan in ages. You have to be impressed by Wisconsin in recent home games as they have allowed only 6 points in their last two home games but that was against Indiana and Northern Illinois so playing against Michigan is going to be like a wakeup slap in the face for these guys who allowed 30+ points at home against Michigan State and Citadel this season. The Badgers come into this game averaging 28.8 points per game on the season and they have done that by averaging 404.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play in those games. Michigan's defense has been tremendous since the first two weeks of the season as they have allowed only 19.2 points per game this season and allowed only 320.9 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play in those games. ***INJURY ALERT*** RB PJ Hill is out again this week so his 1066 rushing yards, 5.0 yards per carry and 15 touchdowns will be dearly missed for a team that averages 186.1 rushing yards per game on the season for 4.2 yards per carry. Without Hil it's going to be tough for this team to penetrate a Michigan defense that has allowed 134.8 rushing yards per game this season on 3.7 yards per carry. That leaves the task up to QB Tyler Donovan who has completed 59.1% of his passes this season for 2093 passing yards, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. Michigan's secondary has bounced back nicely and has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 56.0% of their passes this season for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt which means that if Wisconsin goes down early in this game, they probably won't be able to come back against a defense that no longer allows big yardage plays. The Wolverines secondary is very impressive as they have picked off 13 passes this season and that's mainly because of the defensive line and their ability to pressure the QB like they have. The Wolverines have 31 sacks on the season and that's bad news for a Wisconsin offensive line that has allowed 29 sacks in ten games this season. The Wolverines are also relentless in terms of attacking the ball and forcing fumbles as they have forced a whopping 25 fumbles this season and recovered 14 of those fumbles. Wisconsin has had problems against aggressive defenses like that as they have lost 8 fumbles on the season and could be under immense pressure from this defense. I think Wisconsin is going to have all sorts of problems putting points on the board in this game without Hill and the Michigan defense has always showed up to play in this place. Give me the Wolverines to dominate on both sides of the ball in this game.
WISCONSIN HAS NEVER EVER WON TWO STRAIGHT HOME GAMES AGAINST MICHIGAN! As a matter of fact, Michigan is a whopping 48-11-1 straight up all-time versus the Badgers and in those 60 games have managed to hold Wisconsin to an incredible 10.0 points per game. So after beating the Wolverines at home back in 2005, I don't think the odds of Wisconsin doing it agains are that good since they have never done it before against the Wolverines. RB PJ Hill is out for Wisconsin and I'll be honest with you guys...the only reason Wisconsin has 18 wins over the course of the last two seasons is because of Hill and his great ability to power run and move the chains. The offense is based around Hill and he is not going to play in this game (see what happened to them last week against the Buckeyes?). The Badgers have probably packed it in for the season after their loss last weekend and despite heading to another Bowl Game, they are not as motivated as they would usually be for this game. Michigan is one of the hottest teams in the Country right now, they have been one of the best ATS road teams in the Country over the last few years and I am betting on them large to win and cover this game.
Trend of the Game: Michigan is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Michigan 34, Wisconsin 10
Air Force Falcons -3.5 (25 Units)
The Air Force Falcons won't feel the same coming into South Bend this weekend for the first time in ages without Fisher DeBerry. However that might be a good thing for these guys as they had not won many games in South Bend with DeBerry and the new Troy Calhoun era seems to be taking a turn for the good in recent weeks. Air Force is an impressive 7-3 on the season right now and they are automatically going to a Bowl Game as of right now. Air Force has not only won 7 games but they are a very impressive 7-2 ATS on the season and have been misunderstood by oddsmakers all year because of their new coach and because they had only 12 combined returning starters on both sides of the ball. Well the Falcons have now covered the spread in five straight games despite losing to New Mexico in a very close road game a few weeks back. I know it's not too encouraging to bet on these guys because of the way they have played in some road games but they are definitely the play here. They did beat Utah 20-12 in their first road game of the season but then got crushed by BYU the following week and Navy the week after. However, I was impressed with their 45-21 win at Colorado State and impressed with a game they shoulda won in New Mexico. The Falcons come into this game averaging 25.7 points per game this season and they have done that on 395.2 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games. Notre Dame's defense has been decent this season but they have still allowed a whopping 31.4 points per game this season and allowed 368.9 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground, we all know how well Air Force can run the rock as they average 272.8 rushing yards per game this season and have done that on 5.1 yards per carry which is really bad news for Notre Dame because the one thing they can't do is stop the run. The Irish have allowed a whopping 199.0 rushing yards per game this season and have allowed 4.3 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Shaun Carney has completed 62.6% of his passes this season for 1202 passing yards, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. The Notre Dame pass defense has been decent as opposing QB's have completed only 53.7% of their passes against them this season for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt which won't do much against a team that averages only 16.4 pass attempts per game this season. You can stack the box all you want against these guys, Carney will make you pay for it by throwing deep. The Irish defense has 9 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries on the season which should get them one or two turnovers in this game but other than that they just can't stop the run and Air Force is going to have a fun time running all over the Irish defense. It's not like Notre Dame has an offense that can counter with strikes against AF so the defense is going to be tired and allow a bunch of points because of a useless offense...something that has been the case all year long. Air Force actually dominated their meeting last year but somehow lost anyways despite all the time of possession advantage and everything. This should be interesting to see what Calhoun can do in his South Bend debut. I'm willing to bet it's more than DeBerry did here the last 10 years.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish just keep trucking along hoping this season is going to end at some point in the next few weeks. Well it will guys and your sorry asses are not going to a Bowl Game now and not going to a Bowl Game for a long time to come. The Irish have definitely been the biggest disappointment in College Football this season (almost like my betting record in CFB) and I don't see them turning things around before the end of this season. Notre Dame is now a pathetic 1-8 on the season with their one and only win coming on the road agianst a depledted UCLA team but that was more than a month ago. The Irish are a big fat 0-5 straight up at home this season and are an even more pathetic 1-4 ATS in those games having only covered the spread once and that was against Boston College (by 0.5). Like I said before, after losing the heartbreaker in overtime against Navy last week, I don't see why the Irish would be motivated to bounce back and win this game. Navy was +3 last week and they won and covered so I find it a bit strange that the Irish went from -3 last week to +3.5 this week against another service academy when they almost won the game last week. I smell a big time trap for Notre Dame backers in this one. The Irish come into this game averaging a paltry 13.8 points per game despite putting up 44 points last week against Navy. They also average only 208.4 total yards of offense per game this season on 3.1 yards per play and this has to be their worst offensive team ever. Air Force is actually playing good defense this season as they have allowed only 18.5 points per game on the year after allowing 25+ points per game the last three seasons. Wanna know more about Defensive Coordinator Tim DeRuyter...keep reading further down. The Falcons have allowed only 347.6 total yards of offense per game this season on 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, Notre Dame still does not have a running threat to speak of as they average 56.4 rushing yards per game on the season and average only 1.6 yards per carry with only 7 rushing touchdowns all season. Air Force has been good against the run allowing only 141.8 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry this season. In the air, QB Jimmy Clausen is back in as the starter and he has completed 57.4% of his passes this season for 618 passing yards, only 4.4 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 5 interceptions. OUCH. So much for one of the top recruits in the Country. Air Force has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 56.7% of their passes this season for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt but the Irish just can't get things going. The offensive line as probably the worst in the entire Country as they have allowed 45 sacks in only nine games this season while Air Force has a very good pass rush and will probably get to Clausen several times in this game with their 2.1 sacks per game on the season. Clausen has thrown 5 interceptions this season and needs to worry here as Air Force has 1.4 interceptions per game on the year and they have also forced 1.5 fumbles per game. I mention that because Notre Dame has fumbled 20 times this season and lost 10 of those fumbles. Someone has to explain to me how Notre Dame can improve on offense this week? They can't...Air Force is much better defensively than Navy...by a mile and I don't see the Irish getting many points here. Still don't know about DC Tim DeRuyter? Than keep reading guys...
The public will be the public and the squares will continue to bet on Notre Dame thinking that this team has an inch of hope of turning things around this season under Charlie Weiss. Well they don't. Don't be fooled by the big name of the program, look more at what they have done on the field and what they can do on the field this weekend that is different from past games. The answer is...NOTHING! Once again I am giving 100% credit for the Falcons success to Air Force DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR TIM DERUYTER. For those of you who don't know who he is...he has coached at three different school and has 15 years of coaching experience at those schools and of those 15 years, his teams have always been ranked among the National Leaders. Well he's done it again with a bad defense and turned them into the #18 defense in the Nation after they allowed 25+ points per game the last three seasons. Notre Dame has won 16 straight games against Service Academies heading into last week and we all know how that ended up (loss to Navy). The party is over in South Bend and the future is bleak for everyone involved. Air Force is better than Navy this season and there is no way these guys allow 40+ points against the Irish. Mr. DeRuyter...the floor is yours. Don't know why this guy doesn't have a job with a bigger school yet?
Trend of the Game: Notre Dame is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Air Force 27, Notre Dame 10
Utah State Aggies +24 (10 Units)
The Boise State Broncos are not a team I usually fade but that only applies on their smurf turf and not in road game situations like this one. I was fooled by these guys a few weeks back when I thought Fresno State could handle what they in store for them but I was dead wrong and Broncos really proved me wrong on that one. However, I would like to point out that Boise State is 2-8 ATS in road games where they are favored by 10 points or more and that goes all the way back to the 2004 season...so yeah they are not worth the price of admission as road favorites of too many points. How about last year when they were -36 at New Mexico State and won 40-28? How about last year when they were -21 at Idaho and won 42-26? How about last year at San Jose State when they were -14 and won 23-20? How about the year before that at Hawaii where they were -10 and won 44-41? Get my drift here guys...this team should never be favored by this many points away from home and that has been an insiders secret for quite some time now. Another good example would be their game at Louisiana Tech this season where they were -16.5 and won 45-31...once again failing to cover the large road chalk as they have done for many seasons now. The Broncos come into this game averaging 41.8 points per game this season and they have done that on an impressive 481.8 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play in those games. The Utah State defense has been brutal this season allowing 35.3 points per game and allowing a whopping 448.6 total yards of offense on 6.4 yards per play in those games. However, my play is not based on defense for the Aggies, it's based on ability to keep up. On the ground, the Broncos have once again bene prolific running the ball as they average 207.1 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry this season and they should have no problems running the Aggies into the ground as they have allowed 204.3 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry. Not a problem if you ask me. In the air, QB Taylor Tharp has completed 66.8% of his passes this season for 2274 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 21 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions. The Aggies defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 68.1% of their passes this season for 8.1 yards per pass attempt and like I said before, stopping the Broncos won't be an easy thing to do in this game. However there is hope because as well as Tharp has played this season, he still makes mistakes and has thrown a lot of interceptions which can't be good against a secondary that takes a lot of chances and has 10 interceptions in nine games this season. The Aggies have also forced 17 fumbles and do have some players who can cause havoc for opposing teams that have turnover problems like Boise State who have fumbled 15 times in nine games this season. It could be those one or two turnovers that make the difference in this game and besides, Boise State takes 7.6 penalties per game this season and they are just no built to win these games big.
The Utah State Aggies are one of the only winless teams left in the Country right now but that doesn't make them the worst team in the Nation...not by any means. The Aggies have had some tough luck and were supposed to be a lot more competitive than the 1-11 Aggies from one season ago. Competitive they have been and people tend to have misperceive this team a lot. The Aggies opened the season with a very close 23-16 loss to UNLV as home underdogs. They also came very close to beating a San Jose State team on homecoming but coming up short and losing 23-20 as home favorites. Then came the big game at home against Nevada a few weeks ago where the Aggies looked like they had that first win in the bag but somehow still lost 31-28 against the Wolfpack. I was actually impressed with their loss last week at Fresno State as the Aggies were once again able to compete hard in the game and keep things to only 10 points most of the game, losing 38-27 as 20+ points underdogs. So Utah State has lost three games by 7 points or less and they deserve a win. That win won't come until the New Mexico State or the Idaho games coming up but I think they can definitely compete in this game and keep things closer than people think. The Aggies come into this game averaging 20.9 points per game on the year which is a big improvement from the 10.8 points per game they averaged last season. They average 274.7 total yards of offense per game on 4.4 yards per play and they seem to be improving by the week. Boise State has allowed 20.8 points per game this season and they have done that by allowing 306.7 total yards of offense per game and 4.6 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Utah State has averaged only 121.9 rushing yards per game this season on 3.1 yards per carry but QB Leon Jackson III has passed the 1000 rushing yard mark for his career and I see him making big plays against a Broncos defense that has allowed 120.2 rushing yards per game this season on 3.5 yards per carry. In the air, Jackson III has completed 65.7% of his passes this season for 1174 passing yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He is going up against a tough Broncos secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 51.3% of their passes this season for only 5.6 yards per pass attempt which won't make it easy. The offensive line has had problems protecting Jackson III all season and this afternoon should be no different. However, Jackson is a playmaker who was recruited by several PAC 10 schools because of an outstanding high school career. This is his last game at home and I think he is going to lead this team to something good. The Aggies have lost 9 fumbles on the season but Boise State has recovered only 5 fumbles in nine games this season and they don't force enough turnovers to win this game as big as the experts think. Jackson III is not going out without a bang in this game having won only 7 games in his four year career at this school. Seeing how five of those wins have come at home, could there be magic in the Logan, Utah air this afternoon? Would love to see it that's for sure.
Wanna talk inspiration for this game? The Utah State Aggies are winless on the season...yes, but they have played hard and are destined for something good to happen. This is the home finale for the Aggies this season and it also marks the end of an era for 12...yup 12...seniors in the starting lineup who are going to play one last time in Logan before saying goodbye to their football careers (well most of them anyways). When you have 12 guys playing one last time at home for a team that has had no luck but that has competed hard all season, I think they are going to be motivated big time and keep this game very close to a shocker. Could they possibly pull off the upset? I don't know but that would be nice. This team also has 19 combined returning starters on both sides of the ball so experience is not a problem. Boise State has been one of the worst 10+ points road favorites in college football over the span of the last three of four seasons and there is no reason to think they are going to turn things around in this game. It seems like this team takes things lightly against weaker conference opponents and they have paid the ATS price for it in the past. The Aggies are going to play inspired and keep this game a lot close than people think.
Trend of the Game: Boise State is 2-8 ATS since 2004 as a road favorite of 10 or more points.
Boise State 47, Utah State 35
Auburn Tigers +2 (100 Units) ***SEC PLAY OF THE YEAR***
The Auburn Tigers came into this season as complete write-offs for the SEC West Division Title. I didn't see one single expert predict that they would win this Division or come close to winning the division. Although the probably won't win the Divisionw with only two games remaining, the Tigers have come a pretty damn long way since opening the season 1-2 straight up with losses against South Florida and Mississippi State (both at home). The Tigers have since turned things around and have gone 6-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS in those games. They have been one of the hottest spread teams over the last month or so and I am not missing out on this baby. After snapping out of their early season funk and beating the crap out of New Mexico State at home, Auburn went to Florida and somehow beat the Gators in their own swamp 20-17. They followed that up with a blowout win over Vanderbilt while favored by a touchdown. Next game an even more impressive road win over the Arkansas Razorbacks where the Tigers were three point underdogs but managed to win in hostile territory. Oh did I mention that Auburn had a win over LSU a few weeks ago but blew things late and lost the game? They recovered from that and beat both Mississippi and I-AA Tennessee Tech in the last two weeks. So here we are. The Tigers come into this game averaging 25.5 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 343.6 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. Georgia has been stingy on defense once again this season and they have allowed only 22.4 points per game (highest total in many years for them) and they have also allowed 340.9 total yards of offense per game and only 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Auburn has not been as good as when Kenny Irons was here but they still average 160.2 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry in those games and that should be enough to move the chains against a Georgia defense that has allowed 131.8 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry (once again one of their highest yards per carry in years). In the air, QB Brandon Cox has been pretty efficient this season completing 60.9% of his passes for 1619 passing yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. He is going up against a Georgia defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete a whopping and surprisingly high 63.1% of their passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt. The Bulldogs have problems defending the deep pass and the deep pass is what Auburn likes to throw. What I don't like about this Bullgos defense is that they have only 4 interceptions on the season and that's horrendous for any SEC defense to not be able to force more turnovers. On top of that they have forced 18 fumbles this season but have come up with only 8 of those fumbles and that just won't cut it when playing such a big SEC game. Auburn is here and they are here for business. They have been impressive all season on the road and this should be no different. I am taking the Tigers and calling for them to pull off the upset in this game.
The 2007 edition of the Georgia Bulldogs will always be remembered for what they did in their 42-30 win over Florida in the SWAMP a few weeks ago. After scoring their first touchdown of the season and taking the 6-0 lead, the entire Bulldogs team stormed the field and celebrated in the endzone drawing about 20 flags but working magic on the confidence and morale of the Gators team. It had such an impact that the Bulldogs controlled the rest of the game and I expect things could get ugly the next time these two teams meet. The Bulldogs have three games left on their schedule and they currently hold a one game lead in the SEC EAST Division which makes things intense each and every time they hit the field. They somehow managed get over the Florida hangover last week and beat Troy 44-34 but you have to be concerned with them allowing that many points at home on homecoming weekend. Has this team lost focus because they are in first place in the East or what? Don't forget that this is the same Georgia team that lost 16-12 to South Carolina in their first SEC home game of the season and the same Georgia team that has not played against another SEC opponent at home since a win and cover against Ole Miss on September 29. If I can recall, Georgia also lost at home last season against Tennessee and Vanderbilt while beating Mississippi State by only three points as a 17 point favorite and beating Georgia Tech by only three points as well. That would make the Bulldogs 2-7 ATS in their last nine SEC home games. The Bulldogs come into this game averaging a nice 31.4 points per game this season and they have also averaged 379.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play in those games. Auburn's defense is probably one of the best in the SEC right now as they have allowed only 14.5 points per game this season and have allowed only 293.8 total yards of offense per game and only 4.5 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Knowshown Moreno has been outstanding and has led this team to 173.7 rushing yards per game this season on 4.6 yards per carry in those games. Well Auburn is not about to let Moreno or the returning Thomas Brown to do much in this game as they have allowed only 114.0 rushing yards per game this season and only 3.4 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Matthew Stafford is a bit banged up coming into this game but has completed 56.1% of his passes this season for 1798 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 15 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. Auburn's secondary knows how to keep things in check and they have allowed their opposing QB's to complete only 57.2% of their passes this season for only 5.5 yards per pass attempt which is going to be a problem for Georgia as they will struggle to move the ball like they did in this meeting last year. Satfford has been good this season and has not thrown too many interceptions but he has to be careful against an Auburn defense that is very good at confusing opponents and that now has 11 interceptions on the season. Georgia has been very good at holding onto the ball and now turning it over via the fumble but I have to say that I am concerned for this offense. Auburn's defense is pissed off after allowing their highest points and yards total of the year against Georgia and they have had this game circled on their calendars for quite some time now. Auburn has been one of the most consistent defenses in the Nation over the las four seasons and I expect that to continue in this game. The Bulldogs will lose this game and things are going to get interesting in the race for the SEC Title Game in a few weeks.
I don't care what you tell me about Georgia and what they have done, the bottom line is that every single returning player on this Auburn teams remembers the 37-15 home upset loss to the Bulldogs in 2006 where they allowed 446 total yards (the most of any game all season). Believe it or not, AUBURN HAS ALLOWED 30 OR MORE POINTS IN ONLY 3 OF THEIR LAST 68 GAMES and that game against Georgia was one of them. This is a game the Tigers have been looking forward to since this time last year and just to make things better, the visitor is 11-3-1 all-time in this series. Auburn has been one of the best road underdog teams around over the years while Georgia has been a horrendous 2-7 ATS in their last nine SEC conference home games which puts them in a very bad spot here. They looked like trash against Troy last week and I don't see how they could get much better this week. You don't have to look much further than what Georgia has done at home the last two seasons when favored against SEC opponents to know that this is a very bad spot for them. The pressure is on Mark Richt and his guys to hold the lead in the SEC East Division and something tells me that they are going to buckle and lose it to the Gators. This is definitely my PLAY OF THE YEAR in the SEC.
Trend of the Game: Auburn is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
Auburn 31, Georgia 14
Connecticut Huskies +6.5 (10 Units)
The Connecticut Huskies are yet another road team I am betting on this week and I am betting on them because I don't feel they are getting the respect that they deserve from oddsmakers. We are talking about the current leader in the BIG EAST CONFERENCE which means that the Huskies are only three wins away from reaching their second Bowl Game in school history (well that is already done) but I mean reaching a BCS Bowl for the first time ever. They have the Bearcats this week, Syracuse next week and then the big showdown for the BCS with West Virginia. What a game that is going to be and I think both teams are going to go in there with identical records. As long as the Huskies don't look to far ahead, they should be just fine in this game. I was on Rutgers last week for my Big East Play of the Year and boy was I wrong about these Huskies. If you are still doubting what they can, the Huskies beat Duke 45-14 in their first road game of the season, they beat Pittsburgh 34-14 in their second road game of the season, they lost to Virginia 17-16 (only reason they are not undefeated) in their third road game of the season and here we are in Cincinnati. So the Huskies are 3-0 ATS on the road this season and coach Randy Edsall is finally being rewarded for all his hard work over the course of the last nine seasons. UConn has never beat Cincinnati but things are about to change. The Huskies come into this game averaging 31.1 points per game this season and they have done that on 367.3 total yards of offense in those games and 5.3 yards per play. Cincinnati's defense has allowed 17.9 points per game this season and they have done that by also allowing 377.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Huskies have moved the ball effectively and average 174.8 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry. It won't be easy to move the ball however as Cincinnati has allowed only 107.3 rushing yards per game this season on 3.2 yards per carry. In the air, QB Tyler Lorenzen has been the star of this team as he has completed 58.4% of his passes this season for 1723 passing yards, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Cincinnati's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete 60.7% of their passes this season for 6.9 yards per pass attempt which is bad news for Bearcat backers because Lorenzen has a very good arm and he loves hooking up with Terence Jeffers and DJ Hernandez on the deep ball. Cincy can't stop the deep passes and that is going to be a big problem in this game. The offensive line protection is a concern for the Huskies as they allow more than 2.0 sacks per game but Lorenzen is mobile and he is used to it so he won't be surprised when he has Bearcat guys in his face all afternoon. Cincinnati's defense lives and dies by the art of interceptions as they have a whopping 21 interceptions on the season. Well that won't matter much here because Lorenzen rarely throws picks and he has shown great composure in his first season as the starting QB. The Bearcats have also forced 19 fumbles this season but that also won't be a concern for the Huskies who have lost only 6 fumbles in nine games this season. Connecticut is the one team that can do some damage on this Cincinnati defense and I think they are going to surprise them with their ability to pass and throw effectively.
The experts all called for the Cincinnati Bearcats to win no more than six games this season after going 8-5 last season. I don't know if it's because they didn't trust new head coach Brian Kelly or because they didn't like the 16 returning starters but something has to give. Well Cincinnati is currently 7-2 on the season and are only one win away from once again matching that 8 win total from one season ago. So they have already exceeded expectations and all that remains to do is get that win #8 and try to get another before the season ends so they don't have to play in my hometown of Toronto like they did in last years INTERNATIONAL BOWL. But here is my problem with this Cincinnati team. Sure they have won some big games on the road like their 38-33 win over South Florida last week or their 28-23 road win over Rutgers more than a month ago but what about their home schedule? I mean they crushed SE Missouri State in their home opener, crushed Oregon State in their second home game of the season, crushed Marshall in their third home game of the season but lost to their only real home opponent Louisville in their last home game. So seeing how UConn beat the Cardinals a few weeks ago, how is Cincinnati going to win this game having lost their only big home game of the season? The Bearcats come into this game averaging 37.7 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 429.4 total yards of offense per game on 5.9 yards per play in those games. Connecticut's defense has shocked everyone this season and allowed only 13.7 points per game and have allowed only 317.4 total yards of offense per game on 4.6 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Cincinnati has managed to establish a strong running game as they average 167.7 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry in those games. They are going up against a Huskies defense that has been solid and that has allowed only 122.9 rushing yards per game this season on only 3.6 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Benjamin Mauk has been pretty good as he has completed 60.4% of his passes this season for 1757 passing yards, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 18 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions on the season. Connecticut's secondary has been bent but not broken as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 59.0% of their passes this season for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt which should limit how far Mauk can throw and how many times he can risk going deep in this game. The Huskies have a very good pass rush that can pressure Mauk into making mistakes. I know he doesn't make many mistakes but Cincinnati QB's have thrown 9 interceptions this season and the UConn defense has 19 interceptions on the season so Mauk needs to be careful here. Cincinnati's biggest problem in games this season is that they shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers. The Bearcats have managed to fumle the ball 21 times in nine games this season and have lost 10 of those fumbles which could really change the way this game plays out. Cincinnati has the offense to win this game but I don't know that they can solve the Huskies just yet. If Louisville, Pitt, South Florida and Rutgers couldn't do it...what makes you think the Bearcats can get it done? I am calling for a very close games here.
KEEP DISRESPECTING THE HUSKIES! I did it last week and I learned my damn lesson for once. This team is the real deal and they have shown it on more than one occasion this season. Cincinnati won their meeting last year by a final score of 26-23 but let me explain to you how this went down. Connecticut had a 23-16 lead with about 2:00 to go in that game and somehow they messed it up and allowed 10 points in the final minutes of the game to lose and pretty much miss out on any Bowl Game chances they had. That is why I think the Huskies can play like they did last year and once again run the show against the Cincinnati team. UConn has lost both all-time games in Cincinnati but that was when they were 2-9 (2001 season) and 5-6 (2005 season). These boys are 8-1 on the year baby and there is no chance in hell that Cincinnati should be considered this many points better than them. The home crowd advantage at Nippert Stadium is a lot better in night time games and I don't think the fans will be as lous as they could be in this game. Cincinnati has been a very good home team over the years but once again this game is being played in the afternoon and I love my chances here.
Trend of the Game: Connecticut is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
Connecticut 23, Cincinnati 21
San Jose State Spartans -3.5 (25 Units)
The Nex Mexico State Aggies are not a good football team. Prior to the season starting a bunch of WAC Conference experts called for the Aggies to have a winning season and reach their first BOWL GAME since the 1960 season where they reached the Sun Bowl but that's not going to happen this year. The Aggies come into this game with 4-6 record on the year and unless they can find a way to win against both San Jose State and Utah State and then Fresno State, then they have a chance. I would have no problems betting on this team had this been a home game where they are 4-1 on the season but let's face it, the Aggies are 0-5 straight up away from home this season and they are 1-4 ATS in those games. In their road opener the Aggies went to New Mexico and lost by 10 points. That was followed by a 35 points loss at Auburn and then followed by a 58 point loss at Boise State. Then came a trip to Louisiana Tech where the Aggies came close to winning but blew things late in the game and that was once again followed by a 37 point ass raping at the hands of Hawaii just two weeks ago. So here we are. I know the road team has dominated this series in the past but this is a very bad spot for the Aggies and I don't see them winning this game so why bet on them? The Aggies come into this game averaging 25.5 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 423.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play in those games. San Jose State's defense has been pretty bad this season as they have allowed 31.6 points per game this season and allowed a whopping 406.6 total yards of offense in those games on 5.5 yards per play which is not that bad at all actually. On the ground, Nex Mexico State has had problems moving the ball all season as they average only 92.6 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry in those games. San Jose State's biggest problem is stopping the run as they have allowed 175.4 rushing yards per game this season on 4.7 yards per carry but the Aggies don't have any weapons to expose that. In the air, QB Chase Holbrook is a good one and he has completed 72.4% of his passes this season for a whopping 2858 passing yards, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 22 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. However he is without last year's NCAA leader in receiving yards WR Chris Williams who is out with an injury. San Jose State's pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 63.9% of their passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt so they haven't been burned too many times for deep balls (Holbrook lives and dies by the long ball). The problem with Holbrook is that he makes a lot of mistakes and throws a lot of interceptions, somehting that comes with averaging 46.3 pass attempts per game. Well I think he is in trouble in this game. Not only does he not have his top receiver in the game but San Jose State has 16 interceptions on the season and they have some very sharp (risk takers) defensive backs that feast on INT prone quarterbacks. I don't know what it is that defensive coordinator Dave Fipp does but Spartans opponents average 7.9 penalties per game this season for 65.5 penalty yards lost per game so there is some kind of edge there. The Aggies can score some points no doubt against this defense but I like the playmakers on San Jose State and I like that the top receiver in the Nation last year (and close to it this year) is out for this game.
The San Jose State Spartans came into the season with the same kind of expert expectations as New Mexico State. Both teams were supposed to play really well this year and both teams were supposed to reach a Bowl Game when all was said and done. Well the Aggies are not going to a Bowl Game (pending a miracle) but the Spartans still have a decent chance. I know they are 3-6 on the season and pretty much down and out but all they have to do is win their last three games of the season and a Bowl Game might come calling on the 6-6 Spartans. What sucks for the Spartans is that they have not had enough home games to really get their feet set on the season and it has cost them. They did not play a home game until September 29 against I-AA UC Davis and that was an easy 34-14 win for the home team. Then came another home game against Idaho where they won 28-20 as a 7.5 point favorite on homecoming weekend. I was even more impressed by this team when they hosted Hawaii the following week as a +16 point home underdog and had the Warriors beat until they blew the game late and ended up losing in overtime 42-35. That was a big morale kill on this team and it showed in their 30-0 loss to Fresno State the following week. However, they were still a bit shell shocked last week against Boise State losing 42-7 but now is time to get back to busines at home where they have been at their best. The Spartans come into this game averaging only 16.0 points per game on the season and they have done that by also averaging 307.1 total yards of offense per game on 4.6 yards per play in those games. Not impressed and nothing compared to New Mexico State's offense but there is hope. Nex Mexico State has allowed 35.5 points per game this season and have one of the worst defenses in this Country as they also allow 425.9 total yards per game this season and allow 6.6 yards per play in those games which is a full 1.1 yards more than what San Jose State allows. On the ground, the Spartans are not a good rushing team as they average only 69.3 rushing yards per game this season on 2.3 yards per carry but RB Jacob French has run well in two of the last three games and he could have a big game against a New Mexico State defense that has allowed 156.5 rushing yards per game this season on 5.0 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB and team leader Adam Trafalis is probably out. In comes either QB Sean Flynn or Jordan La Secla. Both have played in games this season. La Secla was 4 for 8 in relief against Boise State last game and will probably start. He has attempted only 18 passes in his career here but does have one touchdown pass. I think La Secla is going to have a coming out party in this game as the QB of the future here. He is up against a defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 57.7% of their passes this season but for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. LaSecla looked good a few times this season and I trust he can get the job done. Looks like Trafalis is passing the torch for now. San Jose State has been very good with the ball this season as they have lost only 1 fumble this season (#1 in the NCAA in lost fumbles) and that can only lead to good things when playing at home against a New Mexico State defense that has recovered only 6 fumbles in 10 games this season and intercepted only 7 passes all season long. I think despite having problems on offense in past games, the Spartans will have a much easier time in this game as they take a big step down in class to face an opponent that is nowhere near as good as their last three opponents (Boise State, Fresno State and Hawaii). It's back to Spartans football tonight after those three losses and the Spartans should have their way in front of the Spartan Stadium faithful.
You wanna talk about injuries and question why I would bet on San Jose State without their starting QB in the lineup? Well how about Nex Mexico State being without WR Chris Williams again who was #1 in the NCAA in receiving yards in 2006 and who has 56 receptions this season for 772 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns? I think that's a pretty big deal. San Jose State has almost always dominated this series as they lead the head to head 12-2 all-time and have won every game by an average margin of 23 points per game (final score 37-14 in most of the game). I don't see why that would be any different today as they take on a very bad road team that doesn't seem to do anything away from home. The Spartans beat New Mexico State last season for their first road in since 2003 and I think they come into this game with the confidence boost of knowing that they can beat this team. The Spartans are 4-1-1 ATS as a home favorite under head coach Dick Tomey and I think coach Tomey really expects his guys to come out and play hard after facing the top three teams in the Conference in recent weeks. This is a home favorite you don't want to miss out on because if you bet on them in this spot in the past, you would be rich by now.
Trend of the Game: San Jose State is 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite.
San Jose State 35, New Mexico State 24
Kansas Jayhawks -6 (100 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Kansas Jayhawks are not only one of the best teams in this Country as they sit at #5 in the rankings but they are also one of the biggest shocks of the 2007 season as pretty much nobody expected them to run the BIG EAST North like they have. I know most experts thought they would come out of the first six games with a 5-1 record but they trumped those thoughts by beating Kansas State on the road 30-24 as 3.5 point underdogs to start the season unbeaten through six. What I find absolute nasty about this team is that they are a perfect 8-0 ATS on the season and have run the table like not many teams have done in the past. What's even more impressive and/or surprising is where the Jayhawks have won and how they have won. I mean for them to walk into Manhattan and beat the Wildcats the way they did was crazy. How about their 19-14 win over the Colorado Buffaloes as -3 point favorites or how about their most recent road win over the Texas A&M Aggies as -2 point favorites? So what the heck makes oddsmakers think they can't cover less than a touchdown against this Oklahoma State team? This is a grudge match. Both teams finished 6-6 last season but because Oklahoma State beat Kansas, they got to go to a Bowl Game and Kansas was left pondering what could have been as they sat at home without a Bowl Game invitation. The Jayhawks come into this game averaging 46.2 points per game this season and that is probably why they have been so good. In those games the Jayhawks average 489.7 total yards of offense per game on 6.4 yards per play. Wow that is some serious offense guys. They are going up against an Oklahoma State defense that has allowed 27.2 points per game this season which is too many points per game. The Cowboys have allowed a whopping 448.3 total yards of offense per game this season on 6.0 yards per play which makes this game look pretty damn dangerous for OSU backers. On the ground, Kansas has one of the best rushing tandems in the Nation as RB's Brandon McAnderson and Jake Sharp have combined for 1464 rushing yards on the season, 6.0 combined yards per carry and 20 combined rushing touchdowns. How do you stop these guys and how do you stop a Kansas team that rushes for 215.3 rushing yards per game this season on 5.1 yards per carry? Oklahoma State has been decent against the run as they have allowed 143.2 rushing yards per game this season on 3.8 yards per carry. The running game is so powerful that QB Todd Reesing should have another big game. Reesing has completed 61.1% of his passes this season for 2339 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 23 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions meaning he has to be considerd for the Heisman. He is going up against a pass defense that is amongst the worst in the Country. The Cowboys have allowed opposing QB's to complete 64.0% of their passes this season for a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt which means that Reesing is going to have an easy time finding Marcus Henry on the deep ball. Oklahoma State is hopeless against dual offensive teams like Kansas and there is no way the Jayhawks don't pound these guys into the ground here. Okie State does have a few playmakers on the defensive side of things but it won't matter here because despite averaging 1.0 interceptions per game this season, Reesing has not thrown any interceptions (barely) and has avoided the turnover bug that plagued him in relief last season. The Cowboys have forced 2.2 fumbles per game this season but that also won't be a problem for Kansas because they have lost only 7 fumbles in nine game this season and they'll be too busy dropping bombs on the secondary. With the Bowl Game already guaranteed this season, the Jayhawks want more...they want BCS and they want it right now....how about an National Title chance should someone mess up and lose?
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are lucky they are getting this much respect from oddsmakers in this game. I would have them as at least 10 point underdogs but I don't know what it is, Vegas seems to have a problem properly lining all the Kansas games this season. Coming into this season, Oklahoma State was being toutes as a team that could easily win more than the 7 games they ended up winning last season but at this point in time, I don't even see them reaching a Bowl Game. The Cowboys did this to themselves however as they opened the season with a blowout loss at the hands of Georgia and followed that with a very embarassing 41-23 road loss against Troy only two weeks later. I have to admit things got better for this team as they spanked around Texas Tech and Sam Houston State before losing by one in College Station the following week. I was impressed by the Cowboys in their homecoming weekend home win over Kansas State as well as their performance against Texas at home last week where they almost won and covered but lost 38-35 late in the game. You see the problem with them keeping it close with Texas and Kansas State is that those two teams don't have a defense worth speaking of...Kansas does so the matchup is totally different. The Cowboys come into this game averaging a whopping 34.6 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 499.3 total yards of offense per game on 6.5 yards per play in those games. Well let me introduce you to the Kansas defense that has allowed only 13.4 points per game this season and that has also allowed only 288.3 total yards of offense per game on 4.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, we all know that Oklahoma State is one of the best rushing teams in the Nation as they average 246.3 rushing yards per game this season on 5.3 yards per carry...thats how this offense work. Well ***RED LIGHT***. Kansas has allowed only 77.7 rushing yards per game this season on 2.8 yards per carry and I doubt Oklahoma State can do much more than that. If thats the case, that will force QB Zac Robinson to make some plays. Robinson has completed 59.3% of his passes this season for 1939 passing yards, 8.8 yards per pass attempt, 15 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. He is going up against a Kansas secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 55.0% of their passes this season for only 5.2 yards per pass attempt so he can forget about all those big plays that he has been enjoying all season as a result of a good running game and some weak ass defenses. This Kansas defense is the real deal and you better be ready for them. Robinson has thrown 6 interceptions and I expect a few in tonight's game as Kansas have 18 interceptions on the season and their secondary is beyond good at this point in the season. The Jayhawks are also very aggressive on their tackles as they have forced 14 fumbles this season and managed to recover 9 of those fumbles which is bad new for the Cowboys who have fumbled 14 times themselves this season. I think that Oklahoma State is going to be frustrated at their lack of production on the ground and that should lead to quite a few mistakes by Zac Robinson who is playing in what is the biggest game of his young career. The Cowboys would normally have enough fire power to ball with just about anyone but Kansas is too good on both sides of the ball and that is not happening. I like Kansas big in this game.
CHOOO CHOOO...CHOOO CHOOO! That's the damn 8-0 ATS Kansas Express straight to MoneyVille leaving the station and im not about to miss out on it. This is the first time I buy a ticket to MoneyVille and I really hope I can keep coming here the next few weeks when these guys play. Kansas is not another South Florida...these guys are the real deal and I don't know of many teams in this Country that can beat them. It will almost surely be Kansas vs. Oklahoma in the BIG 12 TITLE GAME and that is going to be one for the ages. Now forget that Kansas is perfect on the ATS front this season and lets take a look at the situation for both teams. The Jayhawks love playing in this spot. Dating back to last season they have been covering games as the favorite left and right and they enjoy when Vegs gives them the respect they deserve. I know the short point road favorite spot has not been good to them in the past but how can you not bet on this team when they are this red hot? Oklahoma State has never been a good home underdog team and although Boone Pickens Stadium is going to be nuts for this game, it just doesn't provide the home edge needed to win games as home underdogs. I think Kansas is on their way to the BCS and this is only another stepping stone before their games against Missouri and Oklahoma (Title Game).
Trend of the Game: Kansas is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.
Kansas 42, Oklahoma State 19
WEEKLY RECAP
Central Michigan -3
Ohio -3
West Virginia -17
Rutgers -20
Wake Forest +9
Michigan -2.5
Air Force -3.5
Utah State +24
Auburn +2 ***SEC PLAY OF THE YEAR***
Connecticut +6.5
San Jose State -3.5
Kansas -6 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 55-57-4 (-180.10 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
This Week: 0-2-1 (-82.50 Units)
Welcome to my College Football thread. This has been by far my worst regular season in CFB which probably means I am heading for a GREAT BOWL SEASON. However, I am going to keep at it for the time being and hope to finish the last few weeks strong. I have confidence in my capping and my abilities to turn things around for the season. My goal now is to make it back to +0.00 Units for the season. You can get if you want but nobody asked you to follow. Good Luck!
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Friday, November 9
Rutgers Scarlet Knights -20 (10 Units)
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights were my play of the year in the BIG EAST CONFERENCE last week against UConn and we all know how that went. Not only did they not win and cover the +1 points against the Huskies but they lost the game 38-19 and pretty much blew their shot at winning this Conference (not like it was gonna happen anyways). I know the big knock on this team was that they had not faced any valid opponents on the road this season and although that remains true (well UConn is good but they lost to them), what Rutgers really needs is to move outside the Big East and pickup where they left off prior to starting play in the Big East. Heading into Conference play, the Scarlet Knights were 3-1 straight up and 2-1 ATS in those games and they had looked good in blowout wins over Buffalo, Navy and Norfolk State. This is a tough team to understand because they have the actual talent to reach a BCS Bowl Game (well they did heading into the season) but they can't seem to string together three straight good games. They went from beating South Florida one week to getting crushed against the Mountaineers another week. The last time Rutgers came here was in 2003 and they won by 16 points but that was a Rutgers team that went 5-7 and doesn't have anywhere near as much fire power as today's team. The Scarlet Knights come into this game averaging 30.6 points per game this season and they have done that on 462.6 total yards of offense per game and a whopping 6.5 yards per play. The scary part for Army is that they have allowed 26.2 points per game this season and have allowed a whopping 413.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play. WOW are they in trouble here. On the ground, we all know what RB Ray Rice can do and he has led this team to 179.3 rushing yards per game this season and 4.6 yards per carry in those games. I have a feeling Rice is going to come close to 200+ yards rushing in this game as Army has allowed 212.7 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry and have one of the worst run defenses in College Football. In the air, QB Mike Teel has not been great but he has completed 58.1% of his passes for 2467 passing yards, 8.8 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. He is up aganist an Army secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 66.1% of thier passes this season for 7.2 yards per pass attempt which is perfect for Teel because he is very accurate with the long ball and the running game should help setup huge passes to WR's Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Britt. Teel makes mistakes but Army has picked off less than one pass per game this season and they don't have a pass rush that could ever get anywhere near this Rutgers offensive line. Army does force a lot of turnovers but even if the Scarlet Knights fumble once or twice in this game, they'll have too much of a lead that it wont matter. Rutgers should have no problems running holes into the Michie Stadium turf and I don't see how this Army defense can come close to stopping these guys at all. Rutgers offense could have its best performance of the season in this one.
The Army Black Knights (funny how they play against the Scarlet Knights) were not supposed to be any better than the 3-9 squad of 2006 and let me tell you that better, they are definitely not. Army comes into this game having already matched the three win total of last season but their remaining games are not really winnable so they can once again forget about going to a Bowl Game. New head coach Stan Brock has done what he can with this team but they have not responded well. Their three wins this season have come against I-AA Rhode Island back in September (barely), they somehow beat Temple as six point favorites back in September and they managed to beat Tulane on homecoming weekend as six points favorites although failing to cover the spread in that game. If you look at some of their games against better teams, you will notice that they lost to Boston College by 20, Central Michigan by 24, Georgia Tech by 24 and Air Force by 20. The last three games listed were the last three games this team has played and they have not been pretty. Looking back on their last meeting with Rutgers in 2003, the score was a lot closer than the actual way the game went as Rutgers completely dominated but gave up a bunch of late points. Army comes into this game averaging only 17.2 points per game this season and they have done it on only 271.8 total yards of offense per game and only 4.1 yards per play which has to be amongst the weakest in the Country. Rutgers has allowed only 22.1 points per game this season and they have also allowed 326.3 total yards of offense per game on 4.8 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Army has absolutely no hope of moving the ball as they average only 76.6 rushing yards per game this season on 2.3 yards per carry. Rutgers has been good against the run as they have allowed 162.2 rushing yards per game but on only 3.9 yards per carry this season. That leaves everything up to QB Carson Williams in a bad spot here because he has completed only 50.9% of his passes this season for only 1281 passing yards, 6.0 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Rutgers secondary has been deadly and has allowed opponents to complete only 52.5% of their passes this season for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt this season. The Army offensive line has had big time problems and injury issues and they have allowed 2.7 sacks per home game which can't be good because Rutgers defensive line is tough and they average almost 3.0 sacks per game this season meaning Williams is in trouble here. Rutgers has not had luck with interceptions this season but I expect them to get a few in this game as Army QB's are throwing 1.7 interceptions per game this season. The Black Knights have also fumbled 17 times this season and lost 8 of those fumbles which means that they are a lock to lose the ball once or twice in this game which should definitely result in quick point scoring strikes by Rutgers. Army has absolutely nothing that can threaten the Scarlet Knights defense for more than a touchdown in this game and I don't think the offense is going to look good at all.
I know what Vegas is doing here guys. This is a freebie for everyone who pushed on Central Michigan Tuesday night, lost on Ohio Wednesday night and lost on West Virginia and TCU on Thursday night. All four of those plays were public plays and all four of them went down the toilet. So this is a gift from Vegas to let bettors regain confidence heading into the weekend. Don't believe my theory? Just sit there and watch and lets see what happens here. We have seen this in the past where the public gets their asses handed to them all week and then come Friday night, they continue to pound away on the obvious play only to finally be rewarded for their effort and given hope heading into the weekend. Rutgers is not looking to come to Toronto to play in the INTERNATIONAL BOWL and that's exactly what's going to happen with the way things are going. They have three very winnable games left on their schedule and this is a great chance to showcase Ray Rice one more time on TV before he takes off for the NFL. Prior to this season, Rutgers had not covered the spread as a road favorite since the 2003 season going 0-5 ATS since then but they broke that streak this year with a win and cover against Syracuse earlier this year. This game should make them 2-0 ATS as road favorites this season. Rutgers has been one of the only teams you can rely on when it comes to non-conference play.
Trend of the Game: Rutgers is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Rutgers 31, Army 7
Saturday, November 10
Wake Forest Demon Deacons +9 (10 Units)
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have been one of the most profitable football wagers over the course of the last two seasons. They were an impressive 8-4 ATS in 2006 and are currently 6-3 ATS this season with three games remaining before a Bowl Game. No matter what you think of this Wake Forest program and no matter how much you think they are badly overachieving like they were last season, you have to respect the fact that they were 5-0 ATS as road underdogs last season and are 1-1 ATS in that spot this season with their only loss coming against Boston College where they had several in-game injury issues and pretty much had that game covered for quite some time. The Demon Deacons are coming off a devastating loss to Virginia last weekend despite covering the +1.5 spread and losing 17-16. Jim Grobe has done a good enough job with this team that they can easily bounce back from this and come out flying in this game. History is not on the Deacons side here seeing how they are 2-21 when playing in Clemson since 1963 and it has been almost 10 years since they last won a game here. I am not concerned at all however because this is a team that doesn't stop surprising and this number is way to high to begin with. Wake Forest comes into this game averaging 28.8 points per game this season and they have done that on 342.0 total yards of offense per game 4.8 yards per play which is not all that impressive but consider that they were without their starting QB for a while. Clemson's defense has been very good allowing 18.8 points per game this season and allowing only 284.7 total yards of offense in those games on 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, Wake Forest has not been as effective running the ball as they have in the past as they average only 149.9 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry this season. They are up against a Clemson defense that has allowed 127.6 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry this season so at least we know Wake can move forward at times. In the air, QB Riley Skinner has been outstanding, completing 73.2% of his passes this season for 1412 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. He is up against a Clemson secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 55.0% of their passes for 5.3 yards per pass attempt this season. Interceptions are going to be key in this game because Skinner tends to make a lot of ill-advised throws, despite the good completion rate, and Clemon has intercepted 11 passes this season so he needs to be careful. Wake Forest has been very good at holding onto the ball and avoiding turnovers as they have lost only 5 fumbles in nine games this season which is huge because it can change a game just like that. Wake Forest is a lot better on offense this season than they were last season and I think this unit can put enough points on the board to keep this game within a touchdown and possibly win the game straight up. We saw the Clemson defense fold a few weeks ago against the Virginia Tech offense and I believe that Wake Forest is capable of putting just as much pressure on the Tigers in this game.
The Clemson Tigers are a team that I have never really gotten along with this season and past seasons but they finally cashed a big winner for me last week as they beat the crap out of Duke as 17 point road favorites and brought home the bacon on that one. Ever since their BYE WEEK back in mid-October, this Clemson team has come out looking like a team on a mission and a team that is going put some serious pressure on Boston College for the ACC Atlantic Division championship. They are currently only one game behind Boston College as they have a 7-2 record on the season. I have concerns for Clemson backers in this game for the simple fact that the Tigers have played only two conference home games all season and one of them was back on the first week of September when they hosted Florida State on a Monday Night. Clemson won that game by only six points and in their latest conference home game, got blown out by Virginia Tech to the tune of 41-23 as five point favorites in that game. So dating back to the last two conference home games of last season, the Tigers have now gone four conference home games without winning by more than six points which really has to concern some of you seeing how the spread is almost at 10. Playing against Duke, Maryland and Central Michigan does not really prepare you for the speedy athletes on this Wake Forest team, that's for sure. Clemson comes into this game averaging 36.2 points per game this season and they have done that on 425.9 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play which is impressive considering they returned only 5 starters on offense this season. Wake Forest has been pretty stingy on defense as they have allowed 22.2 points per game this season and allowed 345.4 total yards of offense in those games on 4.7 yards per play (only 0.3 less than Clemson's defense this season). On the ground, we all know how much Clemson likes to pound away with RB's CJ Spiller and James Davis who have led the team to 167.9 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry. Wake Forest has been pretty good against the run however as they have allowed only 121.0 rushing yards per game this season on only 3.3 yards per carry which should throw off the balance of the Clemson offense. In the air, QB Cullen Harper has completed 65.2% of his passes this season for 2166 passing yards, 7.5 yards per pass attempt, 23 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. Wow that's incredible. He is going up against a Wake Forest defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 53.3% of their passes this season for only 6.1 yards per pass attempt and I strongly think this defense can come up with some big plays. Dean Hood's defense is getting better and better by the week of experience. Clemson's offensive line is one of the weakest in the ACC Conference and they have allowed 26 sacks in only nine games games this season which is almost 3.0 sacks per game. Wake Forest has some very good pass rushers and they are averaging 2.4 sacks per game this season which means Harper is going to have pressure on him all afternoon. The Deacons have forced 19 fumbles this season and recovered an impressive 12 of them so a Clemson team that has fumbled 13 times this season needs to be careful. I think the Clemson offense is going to score some points in this one but this is a Wake Forest team that takes full advantage of their opportunities and I really like their playmaking abilities on the defensive side of things.
You can argue all you want that Clemson is the better team and that Clemson is just too strong for the Deacons. Well it makes sense right? Clemson went to Wake Forest last season and beat the Deacons 27-17 as 16 point road underdogs so since Clemson is better this year and since Wake Forest is not as good as last year, the Tigers should win this one easy right? NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! Wake Forest is averaging 7.2 more points per game this season than they were averaging last season so they have a much better chance of keeping up this time around seeing how their defense has played well enough to win games. This game means everything in the race for the ACC Atlantic Division as both Clemson and Wake Forest trail Boston College in the standings but can easily makeup ground with a win here and some Boston College losses this weekend or down the road. Wake Forest would jump into second place if they can win this game and should Clemson beat Boston College next week and Wake Forest win their game, they could be a in a tie for first place by the end of next weekend. Wake Forest is 4-0 ATS in their last four games and are playing like every game is their last while Clemson is already looking ahead to the Boston College game next weekend. Also keep in mind that Wake Forest blew a 17-3 third quarter lead in last year's game so don't expect that to happen again.
Trend of the Game: Wake Forest is 11-1 ATS the last two seasons as an underdog.
Wake Forest 30, Clemson 27
Michigan Wolverines -2.5 (10 Units)
The Michigan Wolverines as you guys already know have been written off by everyone as potential BCS Bowl contender and as BCS Championship Game Contender. It makes sense right I mean after losing their season opening game against I-AA Appalachian State and then following that up with another loss this time against Oregon, why would anyone care what they have done since? Well to tell you the truth, Appalachian State was defending I-AA champions, Oregon is one of the top five teams in the Country and probably heading to a BCS Game (pending disaster the last few weeks of the season) and believe it or not, the Wolverines have gone 8-0 since that loss to Oregon and are 6-2 ATS in the process. So had it not been for the two losses at the beginning of the year, this Michigan team would probably be ranked #1 or #2 behind Ohio State and that would make the big game next weekend almost as big as last year's meeting when the two teams met as the #1 and #2 teams in the Country. Well that's all in the past but what I do know is that Michigan is surging to that home game against Ohio State next weekend and despite the danger of looking ahead. Michigan has completely dominated this series with Wisconsin whether you like to admit it or not and I don't see why anyone would go against them after they beat both Illinois and Michigan State as road favorites over the span of the last three weeks. The Wolverines come into this game averaging 28.9 points per game this season and they have done that by averaging 407.1 total yards of offense per game and 5.4 yards per play in those games. Wisconsin's defense has been solid but has also been very beatable this season as they have allowed 22.5 points per game on the year and allowed 338.4 total yards of offense per game on 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, RB Mike Hart continues to lead this team to good things and the Wolverines average 193.1 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry. Wisconsin's defense has had problems stopping the run all season long as they have been rushed on for 148.1 rushing yards per game this season on 4.4 yards per carry which means Hart can really control the tempo of this game. In the air, QB Chad Henne has completed has completed 61.5% of his passes this season for 1469 yards, 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions which is good and pretty much how Henne has been his entire career. Wisconsin's pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 57.5% of their passes this season for only 6.2 yards per pass attempt which means they will probably keep things short in this game and force Michigan to move the sticks many times on drives. That's where the running game comes in because it will soften up this secondary and allow Henne to go play action and hit some deep balls like he loves doing. Wisconsin's defense has been steady but only steady. I mean they don't force turnovers (only 7 interceptions and 5 recovered fumbles all season) and when you don't win the turnover battle in any of your games, you're definitely not getting anywhere fast. Michigan is just too much to handle because they rarely make mistakes with the ball (despite losing 11 fumbles this season and throwing 9 interceptions). Okay Michigan does have a problem holding onto the football but like I said before, Wisconsin just doesn't have any big playmakers on this defense and they won't be able to force the Wolverines into making those mistakes. Michigan beat these guys at home by 14 points last season and seeing how they are a much better road team, I think they get the job done once again.
The Wisconsin Badgers came into this season with not only BIG 10 Championship aspirations but also BCS National Title aspirations. That probably makes you laugh now but the were returning 16 starters combined on both sides of the ball and looked like a team that could give both Michigan and Ohio State a good run for their money. Well those aspirations and dreams ended on October 6 when the Badgers went to Illinois and lost to Ron Zook and the Fighting Illini 31-26. That loss was followed by another loss to Penn State in a crushing 38-7 blowout loss which pretty ended both BIG 10 and National Title thoughts. The Badgers showed what they are really made of last week with a 38-17 loss to Ohio State on the road which put the final nails in the conference aspirations coffin. Michigan has been relentless in this series in the past and have won 7 of the last 8 games in this matchup. Had it not been for a lucky last second strile in 2005, the Badgers would not have a win over Michigan in ages. You have to be impressed by Wisconsin in recent home games as they have allowed only 6 points in their last two home games but that was against Indiana and Northern Illinois so playing against Michigan is going to be like a wakeup slap in the face for these guys who allowed 30+ points at home against Michigan State and Citadel this season. The Badgers come into this game averaging 28.8 points per game on the season and they have done that by averaging 404.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play in those games. Michigan's defense has been tremendous since the first two weeks of the season as they have allowed only 19.2 points per game this season and allowed only 320.9 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play in those games. ***INJURY ALERT*** RB PJ Hill is out again this week so his 1066 rushing yards, 5.0 yards per carry and 15 touchdowns will be dearly missed for a team that averages 186.1 rushing yards per game on the season for 4.2 yards per carry. Without Hil it's going to be tough for this team to penetrate a Michigan defense that has allowed 134.8 rushing yards per game this season on 3.7 yards per carry. That leaves the task up to QB Tyler Donovan who has completed 59.1% of his passes this season for 2093 passing yards, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 14 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. Michigan's secondary has bounced back nicely and has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 56.0% of their passes this season for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt which means that if Wisconsin goes down early in this game, they probably won't be able to come back against a defense that no longer allows big yardage plays. The Wolverines secondary is very impressive as they have picked off 13 passes this season and that's mainly because of the defensive line and their ability to pressure the QB like they have. The Wolverines have 31 sacks on the season and that's bad news for a Wisconsin offensive line that has allowed 29 sacks in ten games this season. The Wolverines are also relentless in terms of attacking the ball and forcing fumbles as they have forced a whopping 25 fumbles this season and recovered 14 of those fumbles. Wisconsin has had problems against aggressive defenses like that as they have lost 8 fumbles on the season and could be under immense pressure from this defense. I think Wisconsin is going to have all sorts of problems putting points on the board in this game without Hill and the Michigan defense has always showed up to play in this place. Give me the Wolverines to dominate on both sides of the ball in this game.
WISCONSIN HAS NEVER EVER WON TWO STRAIGHT HOME GAMES AGAINST MICHIGAN! As a matter of fact, Michigan is a whopping 48-11-1 straight up all-time versus the Badgers and in those 60 games have managed to hold Wisconsin to an incredible 10.0 points per game. So after beating the Wolverines at home back in 2005, I don't think the odds of Wisconsin doing it agains are that good since they have never done it before against the Wolverines. RB PJ Hill is out for Wisconsin and I'll be honest with you guys...the only reason Wisconsin has 18 wins over the course of the last two seasons is because of Hill and his great ability to power run and move the chains. The offense is based around Hill and he is not going to play in this game (see what happened to them last week against the Buckeyes?). The Badgers have probably packed it in for the season after their loss last weekend and despite heading to another Bowl Game, they are not as motivated as they would usually be for this game. Michigan is one of the hottest teams in the Country right now, they have been one of the best ATS road teams in the Country over the last few years and I am betting on them large to win and cover this game.
Trend of the Game: Michigan is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Michigan 34, Wisconsin 10
Air Force Falcons -3.5 (25 Units)
The Air Force Falcons won't feel the same coming into South Bend this weekend for the first time in ages without Fisher DeBerry. However that might be a good thing for these guys as they had not won many games in South Bend with DeBerry and the new Troy Calhoun era seems to be taking a turn for the good in recent weeks. Air Force is an impressive 7-3 on the season right now and they are automatically going to a Bowl Game as of right now. Air Force has not only won 7 games but they are a very impressive 7-2 ATS on the season and have been misunderstood by oddsmakers all year because of their new coach and because they had only 12 combined returning starters on both sides of the ball. Well the Falcons have now covered the spread in five straight games despite losing to New Mexico in a very close road game a few weeks back. I know it's not too encouraging to bet on these guys because of the way they have played in some road games but they are definitely the play here. They did beat Utah 20-12 in their first road game of the season but then got crushed by BYU the following week and Navy the week after. However, I was impressed with their 45-21 win at Colorado State and impressed with a game they shoulda won in New Mexico. The Falcons come into this game averaging 25.7 points per game this season and they have done that on 395.2 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games. Notre Dame's defense has been decent this season but they have still allowed a whopping 31.4 points per game this season and allowed 368.9 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. On the ground, we all know how well Air Force can run the rock as they average 272.8 rushing yards per game this season and have done that on 5.1 yards per carry which is really bad news for Notre Dame because the one thing they can't do is stop the run. The Irish have allowed a whopping 199.0 rushing yards per game this season and have allowed 4.3 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Shaun Carney has completed 62.6% of his passes this season for 1202 passing yards, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. The Notre Dame pass defense has been decent as opposing QB's have completed only 53.7% of their passes against them this season for only 5.9 yards per pass attempt which won't do much against a team that averages only 16.4 pass attempts per game this season. You can stack the box all you want against these guys, Carney will make you pay for it by throwing deep. The Irish defense has 9 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries on the season which should get them one or two turnovers in this game but other than that they just can't stop the run and Air Force is going to have a fun time running all over the Irish defense. It's not like Notre Dame has an offense that can counter with strikes against AF so the defense is going to be tired and allow a bunch of points because of a useless offense...something that has been the case all year long. Air Force actually dominated their meeting last year but somehow lost anyways despite all the time of possession advantage and everything. This should be interesting to see what Calhoun can do in his South Bend debut. I'm willing to bet it's more than DeBerry did here the last 10 years.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish just keep trucking along hoping this season is going to end at some point in the next few weeks. Well it will guys and your sorry asses are not going to a Bowl Game now and not going to a Bowl Game for a long time to come. The Irish have definitely been the biggest disappointment in College Football this season (almost like my betting record in CFB) and I don't see them turning things around before the end of this season. Notre Dame is now a pathetic 1-8 on the season with their one and only win coming on the road agianst a depledted UCLA team but that was more than a month ago. The Irish are a big fat 0-5 straight up at home this season and are an even more pathetic 1-4 ATS in those games having only covered the spread once and that was against Boston College (by 0.5). Like I said before, after losing the heartbreaker in overtime against Navy last week, I don't see why the Irish would be motivated to bounce back and win this game. Navy was +3 last week and they won and covered so I find it a bit strange that the Irish went from -3 last week to +3.5 this week against another service academy when they almost won the game last week. I smell a big time trap for Notre Dame backers in this one. The Irish come into this game averaging a paltry 13.8 points per game despite putting up 44 points last week against Navy. They also average only 208.4 total yards of offense per game this season on 3.1 yards per play and this has to be their worst offensive team ever. Air Force is actually playing good defense this season as they have allowed only 18.5 points per game on the year after allowing 25+ points per game the last three seasons. Wanna know more about Defensive Coordinator Tim DeRuyter...keep reading further down. The Falcons have allowed only 347.6 total yards of offense per game this season on 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, Notre Dame still does not have a running threat to speak of as they average 56.4 rushing yards per game on the season and average only 1.6 yards per carry with only 7 rushing touchdowns all season. Air Force has been good against the run allowing only 141.8 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry this season. In the air, QB Jimmy Clausen is back in as the starter and he has completed 57.4% of his passes this season for 618 passing yards, only 4.4 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown pass and 5 interceptions. OUCH. So much for one of the top recruits in the Country. Air Force has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 56.7% of their passes this season for only 6.6 yards per pass attempt but the Irish just can't get things going. The offensive line as probably the worst in the entire Country as they have allowed 45 sacks in only nine games this season while Air Force has a very good pass rush and will probably get to Clausen several times in this game with their 2.1 sacks per game on the season. Clausen has thrown 5 interceptions this season and needs to worry here as Air Force has 1.4 interceptions per game on the year and they have also forced 1.5 fumbles per game. I mention that because Notre Dame has fumbled 20 times this season and lost 10 of those fumbles. Someone has to explain to me how Notre Dame can improve on offense this week? They can't...Air Force is much better defensively than Navy...by a mile and I don't see the Irish getting many points here. Still don't know about DC Tim DeRuyter? Than keep reading guys...
The public will be the public and the squares will continue to bet on Notre Dame thinking that this team has an inch of hope of turning things around this season under Charlie Weiss. Well they don't. Don't be fooled by the big name of the program, look more at what they have done on the field and what they can do on the field this weekend that is different from past games. The answer is...NOTHING! Once again I am giving 100% credit for the Falcons success to Air Force DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR TIM DERUYTER. For those of you who don't know who he is...he has coached at three different school and has 15 years of coaching experience at those schools and of those 15 years, his teams have always been ranked among the National Leaders. Well he's done it again with a bad defense and turned them into the #18 defense in the Nation after they allowed 25+ points per game the last three seasons. Notre Dame has won 16 straight games against Service Academies heading into last week and we all know how that ended up (loss to Navy). The party is over in South Bend and the future is bleak for everyone involved. Air Force is better than Navy this season and there is no way these guys allow 40+ points against the Irish. Mr. DeRuyter...the floor is yours. Don't know why this guy doesn't have a job with a bigger school yet?
Trend of the Game: Notre Dame is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Air Force 27, Notre Dame 10
Utah State Aggies +24 (10 Units)
The Boise State Broncos are not a team I usually fade but that only applies on their smurf turf and not in road game situations like this one. I was fooled by these guys a few weeks back when I thought Fresno State could handle what they in store for them but I was dead wrong and Broncos really proved me wrong on that one. However, I would like to point out that Boise State is 2-8 ATS in road games where they are favored by 10 points or more and that goes all the way back to the 2004 season...so yeah they are not worth the price of admission as road favorites of too many points. How about last year when they were -36 at New Mexico State and won 40-28? How about last year when they were -21 at Idaho and won 42-26? How about last year at San Jose State when they were -14 and won 23-20? How about the year before that at Hawaii where they were -10 and won 44-41? Get my drift here guys...this team should never be favored by this many points away from home and that has been an insiders secret for quite some time now. Another good example would be their game at Louisiana Tech this season where they were -16.5 and won 45-31...once again failing to cover the large road chalk as they have done for many seasons now. The Broncos come into this game averaging 41.8 points per game this season and they have done that on an impressive 481.8 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play in those games. The Utah State defense has been brutal this season allowing 35.3 points per game and allowing a whopping 448.6 total yards of offense on 6.4 yards per play in those games. However, my play is not based on defense for the Aggies, it's based on ability to keep up. On the ground, the Broncos have once again bene prolific running the ball as they average 207.1 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry this season and they should have no problems running the Aggies into the ground as they have allowed 204.3 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry. Not a problem if you ask me. In the air, QB Taylor Tharp has completed 66.8% of his passes this season for 2274 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 21 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions. The Aggies defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 68.1% of their passes this season for 8.1 yards per pass attempt and like I said before, stopping the Broncos won't be an easy thing to do in this game. However there is hope because as well as Tharp has played this season, he still makes mistakes and has thrown a lot of interceptions which can't be good against a secondary that takes a lot of chances and has 10 interceptions in nine games this season. The Aggies have also forced 17 fumbles and do have some players who can cause havoc for opposing teams that have turnover problems like Boise State who have fumbled 15 times in nine games this season. It could be those one or two turnovers that make the difference in this game and besides, Boise State takes 7.6 penalties per game this season and they are just no built to win these games big.
The Utah State Aggies are one of the only winless teams left in the Country right now but that doesn't make them the worst team in the Nation...not by any means. The Aggies have had some tough luck and were supposed to be a lot more competitive than the 1-11 Aggies from one season ago. Competitive they have been and people tend to have misperceive this team a lot. The Aggies opened the season with a very close 23-16 loss to UNLV as home underdogs. They also came very close to beating a San Jose State team on homecoming but coming up short and losing 23-20 as home favorites. Then came the big game at home against Nevada a few weeks ago where the Aggies looked like they had that first win in the bag but somehow still lost 31-28 against the Wolfpack. I was actually impressed with their loss last week at Fresno State as the Aggies were once again able to compete hard in the game and keep things to only 10 points most of the game, losing 38-27 as 20+ points underdogs. So Utah State has lost three games by 7 points or less and they deserve a win. That win won't come until the New Mexico State or the Idaho games coming up but I think they can definitely compete in this game and keep things closer than people think. The Aggies come into this game averaging 20.9 points per game on the year which is a big improvement from the 10.8 points per game they averaged last season. They average 274.7 total yards of offense per game on 4.4 yards per play and they seem to be improving by the week. Boise State has allowed 20.8 points per game this season and they have done that by allowing 306.7 total yards of offense per game and 4.6 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Utah State has averaged only 121.9 rushing yards per game this season on 3.1 yards per carry but QB Leon Jackson III has passed the 1000 rushing yard mark for his career and I see him making big plays against a Broncos defense that has allowed 120.2 rushing yards per game this season on 3.5 yards per carry. In the air, Jackson III has completed 65.7% of his passes this season for 1174 passing yards, 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He is going up against a tough Broncos secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 51.3% of their passes this season for only 5.6 yards per pass attempt which won't make it easy. The offensive line has had problems protecting Jackson III all season and this afternoon should be no different. However, Jackson is a playmaker who was recruited by several PAC 10 schools because of an outstanding high school career. This is his last game at home and I think he is going to lead this team to something good. The Aggies have lost 9 fumbles on the season but Boise State has recovered only 5 fumbles in nine games this season and they don't force enough turnovers to win this game as big as the experts think. Jackson III is not going out without a bang in this game having won only 7 games in his four year career at this school. Seeing how five of those wins have come at home, could there be magic in the Logan, Utah air this afternoon? Would love to see it that's for sure.
Wanna talk inspiration for this game? The Utah State Aggies are winless on the season...yes, but they have played hard and are destined for something good to happen. This is the home finale for the Aggies this season and it also marks the end of an era for 12...yup 12...seniors in the starting lineup who are going to play one last time in Logan before saying goodbye to their football careers (well most of them anyways). When you have 12 guys playing one last time at home for a team that has had no luck but that has competed hard all season, I think they are going to be motivated big time and keep this game very close to a shocker. Could they possibly pull off the upset? I don't know but that would be nice. This team also has 19 combined returning starters on both sides of the ball so experience is not a problem. Boise State has been one of the worst 10+ points road favorites in college football over the span of the last three of four seasons and there is no reason to think they are going to turn things around in this game. It seems like this team takes things lightly against weaker conference opponents and they have paid the ATS price for it in the past. The Aggies are going to play inspired and keep this game a lot close than people think.
Trend of the Game: Boise State is 2-8 ATS since 2004 as a road favorite of 10 or more points.
Boise State 47, Utah State 35
Auburn Tigers +2 (100 Units) ***SEC PLAY OF THE YEAR***
The Auburn Tigers came into this season as complete write-offs for the SEC West Division Title. I didn't see one single expert predict that they would win this Division or come close to winning the division. Although the probably won't win the Divisionw with only two games remaining, the Tigers have come a pretty damn long way since opening the season 1-2 straight up with losses against South Florida and Mississippi State (both at home). The Tigers have since turned things around and have gone 6-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS in those games. They have been one of the hottest spread teams over the last month or so and I am not missing out on this baby. After snapping out of their early season funk and beating the crap out of New Mexico State at home, Auburn went to Florida and somehow beat the Gators in their own swamp 20-17. They followed that up with a blowout win over Vanderbilt while favored by a touchdown. Next game an even more impressive road win over the Arkansas Razorbacks where the Tigers were three point underdogs but managed to win in hostile territory. Oh did I mention that Auburn had a win over LSU a few weeks ago but blew things late and lost the game? They recovered from that and beat both Mississippi and I-AA Tennessee Tech in the last two weeks. So here we are. The Tigers come into this game averaging 25.5 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 343.6 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. Georgia has been stingy on defense once again this season and they have allowed only 22.4 points per game (highest total in many years for them) and they have also allowed 340.9 total yards of offense per game and only 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Auburn has not been as good as when Kenny Irons was here but they still average 160.2 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry in those games and that should be enough to move the chains against a Georgia defense that has allowed 131.8 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry (once again one of their highest yards per carry in years). In the air, QB Brandon Cox has been pretty efficient this season completing 60.9% of his passes for 1619 passing yards, 7.2 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. He is going up against a Georgia defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete a whopping and surprisingly high 63.1% of their passes this season for 7.0 yards per pass attempt. The Bulldogs have problems defending the deep pass and the deep pass is what Auburn likes to throw. What I don't like about this Bullgos defense is that they have only 4 interceptions on the season and that's horrendous for any SEC defense to not be able to force more turnovers. On top of that they have forced 18 fumbles this season but have come up with only 8 of those fumbles and that just won't cut it when playing such a big SEC game. Auburn is here and they are here for business. They have been impressive all season on the road and this should be no different. I am taking the Tigers and calling for them to pull off the upset in this game.
The 2007 edition of the Georgia Bulldogs will always be remembered for what they did in their 42-30 win over Florida in the SWAMP a few weeks ago. After scoring their first touchdown of the season and taking the 6-0 lead, the entire Bulldogs team stormed the field and celebrated in the endzone drawing about 20 flags but working magic on the confidence and morale of the Gators team. It had such an impact that the Bulldogs controlled the rest of the game and I expect things could get ugly the next time these two teams meet. The Bulldogs have three games left on their schedule and they currently hold a one game lead in the SEC EAST Division which makes things intense each and every time they hit the field. They somehow managed get over the Florida hangover last week and beat Troy 44-34 but you have to be concerned with them allowing that many points at home on homecoming weekend. Has this team lost focus because they are in first place in the East or what? Don't forget that this is the same Georgia team that lost 16-12 to South Carolina in their first SEC home game of the season and the same Georgia team that has not played against another SEC opponent at home since a win and cover against Ole Miss on September 29. If I can recall, Georgia also lost at home last season against Tennessee and Vanderbilt while beating Mississippi State by only three points as a 17 point favorite and beating Georgia Tech by only three points as well. That would make the Bulldogs 2-7 ATS in their last nine SEC home games. The Bulldogs come into this game averaging a nice 31.4 points per game this season and they have also averaged 379.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.6 yards per play in those games. Auburn's defense is probably one of the best in the SEC right now as they have allowed only 14.5 points per game this season and have allowed only 293.8 total yards of offense per game and only 4.5 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Knowshown Moreno has been outstanding and has led this team to 173.7 rushing yards per game this season on 4.6 yards per carry in those games. Well Auburn is not about to let Moreno or the returning Thomas Brown to do much in this game as they have allowed only 114.0 rushing yards per game this season and only 3.4 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Matthew Stafford is a bit banged up coming into this game but has completed 56.1% of his passes this season for 1798 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 15 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. Auburn's secondary knows how to keep things in check and they have allowed their opposing QB's to complete only 57.2% of their passes this season for only 5.5 yards per pass attempt which is going to be a problem for Georgia as they will struggle to move the ball like they did in this meeting last year. Satfford has been good this season and has not thrown too many interceptions but he has to be careful against an Auburn defense that is very good at confusing opponents and that now has 11 interceptions on the season. Georgia has been very good at holding onto the ball and now turning it over via the fumble but I have to say that I am concerned for this offense. Auburn's defense is pissed off after allowing their highest points and yards total of the year against Georgia and they have had this game circled on their calendars for quite some time now. Auburn has been one of the most consistent defenses in the Nation over the las four seasons and I expect that to continue in this game. The Bulldogs will lose this game and things are going to get interesting in the race for the SEC Title Game in a few weeks.
I don't care what you tell me about Georgia and what they have done, the bottom line is that every single returning player on this Auburn teams remembers the 37-15 home upset loss to the Bulldogs in 2006 where they allowed 446 total yards (the most of any game all season). Believe it or not, AUBURN HAS ALLOWED 30 OR MORE POINTS IN ONLY 3 OF THEIR LAST 68 GAMES and that game against Georgia was one of them. This is a game the Tigers have been looking forward to since this time last year and just to make things better, the visitor is 11-3-1 all-time in this series. Auburn has been one of the best road underdog teams around over the years while Georgia has been a horrendous 2-7 ATS in their last nine SEC conference home games which puts them in a very bad spot here. They looked like trash against Troy last week and I don't see how they could get much better this week. You don't have to look much further than what Georgia has done at home the last two seasons when favored against SEC opponents to know that this is a very bad spot for them. The pressure is on Mark Richt and his guys to hold the lead in the SEC East Division and something tells me that they are going to buckle and lose it to the Gators. This is definitely my PLAY OF THE YEAR in the SEC.
Trend of the Game: Auburn is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
Auburn 31, Georgia 14
Connecticut Huskies +6.5 (10 Units)
The Connecticut Huskies are yet another road team I am betting on this week and I am betting on them because I don't feel they are getting the respect that they deserve from oddsmakers. We are talking about the current leader in the BIG EAST CONFERENCE which means that the Huskies are only three wins away from reaching their second Bowl Game in school history (well that is already done) but I mean reaching a BCS Bowl for the first time ever. They have the Bearcats this week, Syracuse next week and then the big showdown for the BCS with West Virginia. What a game that is going to be and I think both teams are going to go in there with identical records. As long as the Huskies don't look to far ahead, they should be just fine in this game. I was on Rutgers last week for my Big East Play of the Year and boy was I wrong about these Huskies. If you are still doubting what they can, the Huskies beat Duke 45-14 in their first road game of the season, they beat Pittsburgh 34-14 in their second road game of the season, they lost to Virginia 17-16 (only reason they are not undefeated) in their third road game of the season and here we are in Cincinnati. So the Huskies are 3-0 ATS on the road this season and coach Randy Edsall is finally being rewarded for all his hard work over the course of the last nine seasons. UConn has never beat Cincinnati but things are about to change. The Huskies come into this game averaging 31.1 points per game this season and they have done that on 367.3 total yards of offense in those games and 5.3 yards per play. Cincinnati's defense has allowed 17.9 points per game this season and they have done that by also allowing 377.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Huskies have moved the ball effectively and average 174.8 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry. It won't be easy to move the ball however as Cincinnati has allowed only 107.3 rushing yards per game this season on 3.2 yards per carry. In the air, QB Tyler Lorenzen has been the star of this team as he has completed 58.4% of his passes this season for 1723 passing yards, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Cincinnati's pass defense has allowed opponents to complete 60.7% of their passes this season for 6.9 yards per pass attempt which is bad news for Bearcat backers because Lorenzen has a very good arm and he loves hooking up with Terence Jeffers and DJ Hernandez on the deep ball. Cincy can't stop the deep passes and that is going to be a big problem in this game. The offensive line protection is a concern for the Huskies as they allow more than 2.0 sacks per game but Lorenzen is mobile and he is used to it so he won't be surprised when he has Bearcat guys in his face all afternoon. Cincinnati's defense lives and dies by the art of interceptions as they have a whopping 21 interceptions on the season. Well that won't matter much here because Lorenzen rarely throws picks and he has shown great composure in his first season as the starting QB. The Bearcats have also forced 19 fumbles this season but that also won't be a concern for the Huskies who have lost only 6 fumbles in nine games this season. Connecticut is the one team that can do some damage on this Cincinnati defense and I think they are going to surprise them with their ability to pass and throw effectively.
The experts all called for the Cincinnati Bearcats to win no more than six games this season after going 8-5 last season. I don't know if it's because they didn't trust new head coach Brian Kelly or because they didn't like the 16 returning starters but something has to give. Well Cincinnati is currently 7-2 on the season and are only one win away from once again matching that 8 win total from one season ago. So they have already exceeded expectations and all that remains to do is get that win #8 and try to get another before the season ends so they don't have to play in my hometown of Toronto like they did in last years INTERNATIONAL BOWL. But here is my problem with this Cincinnati team. Sure they have won some big games on the road like their 38-33 win over South Florida last week or their 28-23 road win over Rutgers more than a month ago but what about their home schedule? I mean they crushed SE Missouri State in their home opener, crushed Oregon State in their second home game of the season, crushed Marshall in their third home game of the season but lost to their only real home opponent Louisville in their last home game. So seeing how UConn beat the Cardinals a few weeks ago, how is Cincinnati going to win this game having lost their only big home game of the season? The Bearcats come into this game averaging 37.7 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 429.4 total yards of offense per game on 5.9 yards per play in those games. Connecticut's defense has shocked everyone this season and allowed only 13.7 points per game and have allowed only 317.4 total yards of offense per game on 4.6 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Cincinnati has managed to establish a strong running game as they average 167.7 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry in those games. They are going up against a Huskies defense that has been solid and that has allowed only 122.9 rushing yards per game this season on only 3.6 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Benjamin Mauk has been pretty good as he has completed 60.4% of his passes this season for 1757 passing yards, 7.8 yards per pass attempt, 18 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions on the season. Connecticut's secondary has been bent but not broken as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete 59.0% of their passes this season for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt which should limit how far Mauk can throw and how many times he can risk going deep in this game. The Huskies have a very good pass rush that can pressure Mauk into making mistakes. I know he doesn't make many mistakes but Cincinnati QB's have thrown 9 interceptions this season and the UConn defense has 19 interceptions on the season so Mauk needs to be careful here. Cincinnati's biggest problem in games this season is that they shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers. The Bearcats have managed to fumle the ball 21 times in nine games this season and have lost 10 of those fumbles which could really change the way this game plays out. Cincinnati has the offense to win this game but I don't know that they can solve the Huskies just yet. If Louisville, Pitt, South Florida and Rutgers couldn't do it...what makes you think the Bearcats can get it done? I am calling for a very close games here.
KEEP DISRESPECTING THE HUSKIES! I did it last week and I learned my damn lesson for once. This team is the real deal and they have shown it on more than one occasion this season. Cincinnati won their meeting last year by a final score of 26-23 but let me explain to you how this went down. Connecticut had a 23-16 lead with about 2:00 to go in that game and somehow they messed it up and allowed 10 points in the final minutes of the game to lose and pretty much miss out on any Bowl Game chances they had. That is why I think the Huskies can play like they did last year and once again run the show against the Cincinnati team. UConn has lost both all-time games in Cincinnati but that was when they were 2-9 (2001 season) and 5-6 (2005 season). These boys are 8-1 on the year baby and there is no chance in hell that Cincinnati should be considered this many points better than them. The home crowd advantage at Nippert Stadium is a lot better in night time games and I don't think the fans will be as lous as they could be in this game. Cincinnati has been a very good home team over the years but once again this game is being played in the afternoon and I love my chances here.
Trend of the Game: Connecticut is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
Connecticut 23, Cincinnati 21
San Jose State Spartans -3.5 (25 Units)
The Nex Mexico State Aggies are not a good football team. Prior to the season starting a bunch of WAC Conference experts called for the Aggies to have a winning season and reach their first BOWL GAME since the 1960 season where they reached the Sun Bowl but that's not going to happen this year. The Aggies come into this game with 4-6 record on the year and unless they can find a way to win against both San Jose State and Utah State and then Fresno State, then they have a chance. I would have no problems betting on this team had this been a home game where they are 4-1 on the season but let's face it, the Aggies are 0-5 straight up away from home this season and they are 1-4 ATS in those games. In their road opener the Aggies went to New Mexico and lost by 10 points. That was followed by a 35 points loss at Auburn and then followed by a 58 point loss at Boise State. Then came a trip to Louisiana Tech where the Aggies came close to winning but blew things late in the game and that was once again followed by a 37 point ass raping at the hands of Hawaii just two weeks ago. So here we are. I know the road team has dominated this series in the past but this is a very bad spot for the Aggies and I don't see them winning this game so why bet on them? The Aggies come into this game averaging 25.5 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 423.3 total yards of offense per game and 5.8 yards per play in those games. San Jose State's defense has been pretty bad this season as they have allowed 31.6 points per game this season and allowed a whopping 406.6 total yards of offense in those games on 5.5 yards per play which is not that bad at all actually. On the ground, Nex Mexico State has had problems moving the ball all season as they average only 92.6 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry in those games. San Jose State's biggest problem is stopping the run as they have allowed 175.4 rushing yards per game this season on 4.7 yards per carry but the Aggies don't have any weapons to expose that. In the air, QB Chase Holbrook is a good one and he has completed 72.4% of his passes this season for a whopping 2858 passing yards, 7.4 yards per pass attempt, 22 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. However he is without last year's NCAA leader in receiving yards WR Chris Williams who is out with an injury. San Jose State's pass defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete 63.9% of their passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt so they haven't been burned too many times for deep balls (Holbrook lives and dies by the long ball). The problem with Holbrook is that he makes a lot of mistakes and throws a lot of interceptions, somehting that comes with averaging 46.3 pass attempts per game. Well I think he is in trouble in this game. Not only does he not have his top receiver in the game but San Jose State has 16 interceptions on the season and they have some very sharp (risk takers) defensive backs that feast on INT prone quarterbacks. I don't know what it is that defensive coordinator Dave Fipp does but Spartans opponents average 7.9 penalties per game this season for 65.5 penalty yards lost per game so there is some kind of edge there. The Aggies can score some points no doubt against this defense but I like the playmakers on San Jose State and I like that the top receiver in the Nation last year (and close to it this year) is out for this game.
The San Jose State Spartans came into the season with the same kind of expert expectations as New Mexico State. Both teams were supposed to play really well this year and both teams were supposed to reach a Bowl Game when all was said and done. Well the Aggies are not going to a Bowl Game (pending a miracle) but the Spartans still have a decent chance. I know they are 3-6 on the season and pretty much down and out but all they have to do is win their last three games of the season and a Bowl Game might come calling on the 6-6 Spartans. What sucks for the Spartans is that they have not had enough home games to really get their feet set on the season and it has cost them. They did not play a home game until September 29 against I-AA UC Davis and that was an easy 34-14 win for the home team. Then came another home game against Idaho where they won 28-20 as a 7.5 point favorite on homecoming weekend. I was even more impressed by this team when they hosted Hawaii the following week as a +16 point home underdog and had the Warriors beat until they blew the game late and ended up losing in overtime 42-35. That was a big morale kill on this team and it showed in their 30-0 loss to Fresno State the following week. However, they were still a bit shell shocked last week against Boise State losing 42-7 but now is time to get back to busines at home where they have been at their best. The Spartans come into this game averaging only 16.0 points per game on the season and they have done that by also averaging 307.1 total yards of offense per game on 4.6 yards per play in those games. Not impressed and nothing compared to New Mexico State's offense but there is hope. Nex Mexico State has allowed 35.5 points per game this season and have one of the worst defenses in this Country as they also allow 425.9 total yards per game this season and allow 6.6 yards per play in those games which is a full 1.1 yards more than what San Jose State allows. On the ground, the Spartans are not a good rushing team as they average only 69.3 rushing yards per game this season on 2.3 yards per carry but RB Jacob French has run well in two of the last three games and he could have a big game against a New Mexico State defense that has allowed 156.5 rushing yards per game this season on 5.0 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB and team leader Adam Trafalis is probably out. In comes either QB Sean Flynn or Jordan La Secla. Both have played in games this season. La Secla was 4 for 8 in relief against Boise State last game and will probably start. He has attempted only 18 passes in his career here but does have one touchdown pass. I think La Secla is going to have a coming out party in this game as the QB of the future here. He is up against a defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 57.7% of their passes this season but for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. LaSecla looked good a few times this season and I trust he can get the job done. Looks like Trafalis is passing the torch for now. San Jose State has been very good with the ball this season as they have lost only 1 fumble this season (#1 in the NCAA in lost fumbles) and that can only lead to good things when playing at home against a New Mexico State defense that has recovered only 6 fumbles in 10 games this season and intercepted only 7 passes all season long. I think despite having problems on offense in past games, the Spartans will have a much easier time in this game as they take a big step down in class to face an opponent that is nowhere near as good as their last three opponents (Boise State, Fresno State and Hawaii). It's back to Spartans football tonight after those three losses and the Spartans should have their way in front of the Spartan Stadium faithful.
You wanna talk about injuries and question why I would bet on San Jose State without their starting QB in the lineup? Well how about Nex Mexico State being without WR Chris Williams again who was #1 in the NCAA in receiving yards in 2006 and who has 56 receptions this season for 772 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns? I think that's a pretty big deal. San Jose State has almost always dominated this series as they lead the head to head 12-2 all-time and have won every game by an average margin of 23 points per game (final score 37-14 in most of the game). I don't see why that would be any different today as they take on a very bad road team that doesn't seem to do anything away from home. The Spartans beat New Mexico State last season for their first road in since 2003 and I think they come into this game with the confidence boost of knowing that they can beat this team. The Spartans are 4-1-1 ATS as a home favorite under head coach Dick Tomey and I think coach Tomey really expects his guys to come out and play hard after facing the top three teams in the Conference in recent weeks. This is a home favorite you don't want to miss out on because if you bet on them in this spot in the past, you would be rich by now.
Trend of the Game: San Jose State is 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite.
San Jose State 35, New Mexico State 24
Kansas Jayhawks -6 (100 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
The Kansas Jayhawks are not only one of the best teams in this Country as they sit at #5 in the rankings but they are also one of the biggest shocks of the 2007 season as pretty much nobody expected them to run the BIG EAST North like they have. I know most experts thought they would come out of the first six games with a 5-1 record but they trumped those thoughts by beating Kansas State on the road 30-24 as 3.5 point underdogs to start the season unbeaten through six. What I find absolute nasty about this team is that they are a perfect 8-0 ATS on the season and have run the table like not many teams have done in the past. What's even more impressive and/or surprising is where the Jayhawks have won and how they have won. I mean for them to walk into Manhattan and beat the Wildcats the way they did was crazy. How about their 19-14 win over the Colorado Buffaloes as -3 point favorites or how about their most recent road win over the Texas A&M Aggies as -2 point favorites? So what the heck makes oddsmakers think they can't cover less than a touchdown against this Oklahoma State team? This is a grudge match. Both teams finished 6-6 last season but because Oklahoma State beat Kansas, they got to go to a Bowl Game and Kansas was left pondering what could have been as they sat at home without a Bowl Game invitation. The Jayhawks come into this game averaging 46.2 points per game this season and that is probably why they have been so good. In those games the Jayhawks average 489.7 total yards of offense per game on 6.4 yards per play. Wow that is some serious offense guys. They are going up against an Oklahoma State defense that has allowed 27.2 points per game this season which is too many points per game. The Cowboys have allowed a whopping 448.3 total yards of offense per game this season on 6.0 yards per play which makes this game look pretty damn dangerous for OSU backers. On the ground, Kansas has one of the best rushing tandems in the Nation as RB's Brandon McAnderson and Jake Sharp have combined for 1464 rushing yards on the season, 6.0 combined yards per carry and 20 combined rushing touchdowns. How do you stop these guys and how do you stop a Kansas team that rushes for 215.3 rushing yards per game this season on 5.1 yards per carry? Oklahoma State has been decent against the run as they have allowed 143.2 rushing yards per game this season on 3.8 yards per carry. The running game is so powerful that QB Todd Reesing should have another big game. Reesing has completed 61.1% of his passes this season for 2339 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 23 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions meaning he has to be considerd for the Heisman. He is going up against a pass defense that is amongst the worst in the Country. The Cowboys have allowed opposing QB's to complete 64.0% of their passes this season for a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt which means that Reesing is going to have an easy time finding Marcus Henry on the deep ball. Oklahoma State is hopeless against dual offensive teams like Kansas and there is no way the Jayhawks don't pound these guys into the ground here. Okie State does have a few playmakers on the defensive side of things but it won't matter here because despite averaging 1.0 interceptions per game this season, Reesing has not thrown any interceptions (barely) and has avoided the turnover bug that plagued him in relief last season. The Cowboys have forced 2.2 fumbles per game this season but that also won't be a problem for Kansas because they have lost only 7 fumbles in nine game this season and they'll be too busy dropping bombs on the secondary. With the Bowl Game already guaranteed this season, the Jayhawks want more...they want BCS and they want it right now....how about an National Title chance should someone mess up and lose?
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are lucky they are getting this much respect from oddsmakers in this game. I would have them as at least 10 point underdogs but I don't know what it is, Vegas seems to have a problem properly lining all the Kansas games this season. Coming into this season, Oklahoma State was being toutes as a team that could easily win more than the 7 games they ended up winning last season but at this point in time, I don't even see them reaching a Bowl Game. The Cowboys did this to themselves however as they opened the season with a blowout loss at the hands of Georgia and followed that with a very embarassing 41-23 road loss against Troy only two weeks later. I have to admit things got better for this team as they spanked around Texas Tech and Sam Houston State before losing by one in College Station the following week. I was impressed by the Cowboys in their homecoming weekend home win over Kansas State as well as their performance against Texas at home last week where they almost won and covered but lost 38-35 late in the game. You see the problem with them keeping it close with Texas and Kansas State is that those two teams don't have a defense worth speaking of...Kansas does so the matchup is totally different. The Cowboys come into this game averaging a whopping 34.6 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 499.3 total yards of offense per game on 6.5 yards per play in those games. Well let me introduce you to the Kansas defense that has allowed only 13.4 points per game this season and that has also allowed only 288.3 total yards of offense per game on 4.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, we all know that Oklahoma State is one of the best rushing teams in the Nation as they average 246.3 rushing yards per game this season on 5.3 yards per carry...thats how this offense work. Well ***RED LIGHT***. Kansas has allowed only 77.7 rushing yards per game this season on 2.8 yards per carry and I doubt Oklahoma State can do much more than that. If thats the case, that will force QB Zac Robinson to make some plays. Robinson has completed 59.3% of his passes this season for 1939 passing yards, 8.8 yards per pass attempt, 15 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. He is going up against a Kansas secondary that has allowed opposing QB's to complete only 55.0% of their passes this season for only 5.2 yards per pass attempt so he can forget about all those big plays that he has been enjoying all season as a result of a good running game and some weak ass defenses. This Kansas defense is the real deal and you better be ready for them. Robinson has thrown 6 interceptions and I expect a few in tonight's game as Kansas have 18 interceptions on the season and their secondary is beyond good at this point in the season. The Jayhawks are also very aggressive on their tackles as they have forced 14 fumbles this season and managed to recover 9 of those fumbles which is bad new for the Cowboys who have fumbled 14 times themselves this season. I think that Oklahoma State is going to be frustrated at their lack of production on the ground and that should lead to quite a few mistakes by Zac Robinson who is playing in what is the biggest game of his young career. The Cowboys would normally have enough fire power to ball with just about anyone but Kansas is too good on both sides of the ball and that is not happening. I like Kansas big in this game.
CHOOO CHOOO...CHOOO CHOOO! That's the damn 8-0 ATS Kansas Express straight to MoneyVille leaving the station and im not about to miss out on it. This is the first time I buy a ticket to MoneyVille and I really hope I can keep coming here the next few weeks when these guys play. Kansas is not another South Florida...these guys are the real deal and I don't know of many teams in this Country that can beat them. It will almost surely be Kansas vs. Oklahoma in the BIG 12 TITLE GAME and that is going to be one for the ages. Now forget that Kansas is perfect on the ATS front this season and lets take a look at the situation for both teams. The Jayhawks love playing in this spot. Dating back to last season they have been covering games as the favorite left and right and they enjoy when Vegs gives them the respect they deserve. I know the short point road favorite spot has not been good to them in the past but how can you not bet on this team when they are this red hot? Oklahoma State has never been a good home underdog team and although Boone Pickens Stadium is going to be nuts for this game, it just doesn't provide the home edge needed to win games as home underdogs. I think Kansas is on their way to the BCS and this is only another stepping stone before their games against Missouri and Oklahoma (Title Game).
Trend of the Game: Kansas is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.
Kansas 42, Oklahoma State 19
WEEKLY RECAP
Central Michigan -3
Ohio -3
West Virginia -17
Rutgers -20
Wake Forest +9
Michigan -2.5
Air Force -3.5
Utah State +24
Auburn +2 ***SEC PLAY OF THE YEAR***
Connecticut +6.5
San Jose State -3.5
Kansas -6 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
