MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Record: 59-43-2 (+61.90 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 49-35-2 ATS (+70.70 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-8 (-8.80 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 5-5 (-4.50 units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 5-1 (+54.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-3 (-26.50 Units)
49-23-2 ATS (68%) in Football the last six weeks
I am going to be on the road all day Friday and will be too tired to post my picks on Friday Night. I am betting all of them right now at Pinnacle and hopefully for some followers, the line doesn't move too much. I was 4-1 ATS last weekend and now it's time to clean house after the Louisville fiasco last night.
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Saturday, November 11
Iowa Hawkeyes +1.5 (10 Units)
The Wisconsin Badgers have by far been one of the best ATS teams this college football season but the question remains, will this be the time of the year where they start to fizzle a little bit? Wisconsin is 7-1-1 ATS this season and they have been killing people who bet against them. So how does it make sense that the Badgers are only -1.5 in Iowa this weekend when Vegas knows that most of the betting public is going to pound the Badgers? It just doesn't make sense. My line was somewhere around a touchdown and I said to myself if it was anything but at least six points, I was going to be pounding the Hawkeyes. Wisconsin, had it not been for their loss to Michigan, would most definitely be a top team in the Nation and they would definitely be making a great case for the Big 10 Title. Pending some kind of miracle, Wisconsin will be playing for 3rd or 4th in the Big 10 which is much better than what Bret Bielema had expected or even thought of before this season started. However, QB John Stocco has a bum shoulder and he is definitely questionable for this game. Regardless of Stocco playing or not, my play is still definitely on the Hawkeyes to reward the home crowd. Wisconsin is averaging an impressive 31.0 points per road game this season on 387.5 total yards per game and 5.9 yards per play away from home. The Hawkeyes however are allowing 19.0 points per home game on 327.0 total yards and only 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB PJ Hill has been a monster all year. The Badgers should have no problems rushing the ball in this one because Iowa is allowing 149.2 rushing yards per home game on 4.2 yards per carry. However, Iowa D-Line has underachieved all season and I expect a big game. In the air, Stocco is essential to this offense but what can he do with a bad shoulder? He is passing for 8.7 yards per pass attempt on the road with only 2 interceptions thrown. He has been sacked only 6 times away from home. Iowa's pass defense is allowing home opponents to complete only 54.2% of their passes for only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. They are big time ballhawkers who have 8 INT's at home and have made some big plays. It's time for Wisconsin to falter a little bit and Iowa to step things up.
I would like to start off by saying that I love to play the Hawkeyes on their last home game of the season. I have made tons of cash doing this in the past and just realized it when I looked at the schedule and saw that this was their last of the year...coincidence. After researching things a little bit more, I found that Iowa is 13-1 ATS the last 14 years in their last home game of the season and we are about to find out if they play with a little extra spunk for the Iowa City fans in November. The Hawkeyes are coming off one of the most embarassing losses in recent school program history as they lost to the lowly Northwestern Wildcats 21-7 at home last week. The fans and the Hawkeye faithful were not happy at all. I just don't see how Ferentz won't have these guys ready for this game because the game means a lot in terms of Iowa playing in a good Bowl Game as well as Iowa restoring confidence in the Hawkeye football program. Brett Bielema (Wisconsin's head coach) used to play for Iowa back in the 1980's so this game should mean a little bit extra to him. However, what can he do about the performance of his players who don't really give a damn where he used to play or why he wants to win this? The Hawkeyes are averaging 27.2 points per home game this season on 378.3 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play. Wisconsin's defense has been rock solid away from home allowing only 15.3 points per game. They have allowed only 297.3 total yards per road game but wait a minute...those games were against Michigan (they had a bad game), Indiana (horrendous at the time) and Purdue (getting worse by the week). Much like Wisconsin, Iowa loves to run the ball and they do it well at home averaging 140.2 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry at Kinnick Stadium this year. The problem spot in Wisconsin's defense on the road is the run defense and they are allowing a whopping 149.0 rushing yards per road game on 4.2 yards per carry. In the air, QB Drew Tate was way off last week but it was to be expected after missing some time. He is still completing 61.3% of his passes at home this season for 7.4 yards per pass attempt. His O-Line is allowing only 1.8 sacks per home game but Tate has still thrown 6 of his 8 interceptions at home. Often, he has tried to do too much at one time. Wisconsin's pass defense has been good on the road but they don't get much pressure on opposing QB's and don't have many big time playmakers in their secondary. Regardless of what anyone thinks about this Iowa team, they are very good when coming off a loss and they are a very well disciplined at home. I see this as a big bounce back game for the Hawkeyes and I see this a big stepping stone for next season's team. They need this win. This is Drew Tate's last ever home game and he's not about to let it go this easily.
Trend of the Game: Iowa is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings
Iowa 27, Wisconsin 18
Florida Gators -12.5 (20 Units)
Steve Spurrier's much maligned return to Gainesville is about the only way you can summarize this game, or is it? It's not. The talk right now in Gainesville is about Florida playing for the National Title now that the Louisville Cardinals have finally lost a game. Okay who cares about that. South Carolina looked like they had really turned things around mid-season after a big road win in Kentucky followed by a big win at home against Vanderbilt. The cocks were 5-2 on the year at that point and they now had two very crucial SEC home games coming up where they were supposed to prove to everyone that this program was on the rise and that they could pull off some classic home SEC upsets. They failed miserably in both games. Not only did they lose to Tennessee and Arkansas but Spurrier and his guys were never close in either game and in both cases, the game was a waste of the 7:45pm ET time slot for college ball. Making it to a Bowl Game is almost a guarantee for Spurrier and his guys because they have Middle Tennessee at home next week and that would be the Bowl Game clincher. As much as I don't agree with them being in a Bowl Game, that's how things are. Spurrier will most likely overcoach his team for this game wanting to do too much like he did the last two games. South Carolina is averaging 25.0 points per game in their last three games on 354.0 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play. Florida's defense has been stout as usual the last three games, allowing only 20.0 points per game on 307.0 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, the Gamecocks have had success running lately averaging 136.7 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry in their last three games. However, Florida held Auburn, Georgia and Vanderbilt to an average of only 96.6 rushing yards per game for only 3.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Blake Mitchell could possibly be the starter in this game but regardless of Mitchell or Syvell Newton playing, I don't like their chances. They have thrown 5 interceptions in their last three games and although they have a lot of yardage per pass attempt in those games, most of it came when they were already down by a lot and trying to come from behind where things come a lot easier on offense. Florida's defense has played some outstanding football as their last three opposing QB's have completed only 55.8% of their passes. They have 12 sacks in their last three games and 3 interceptions in those games. With South Carolina once again having to play from behind in this game, don't be surprised if this turns into an interception fest. Florida's ability to shut down South Carolina's running attack will be an understatement to the Gators win here and as much as Spurrier wants it, he's not going to come close to winning this game.
In my eyes and in my own personal college football rankings, Florida is currently ranked #11 but that's not the point. Everyone in Gainesville seems to have Florida as the #2 team in the Country but the funny things is, I really don't think they are. Everyone is talking about them being the ones who will now play for the National Title against the winner of Ohio State-Michigan but I can name you about 9 teams who are more deserving than Florida of being in the National Title game (believe it or not I have BYU being a stronger overall team that could definitely beat the Gators). However, like I said before, as long as the Gators believe and as long as their people believe, there is no reason for me not to back this team to the end and bet on them when the opportunity is right. With the Cardinals losing that game to Rutgers on Thursday, the door is wide open for Florida to make a statement and win this game big. Urban Meyer knows that this game is huge for two reasons: a) Steve Spurrier's return to his old stomping grounds is going to have the crowd a little more jolted than usual and his Gators a little big distracted and b) the BCS Computer is watching this game and the Gators need to be impressive before their I-AA oponent next week. Florida is averaging 21.0 points per game in their last three games and considering their opponents, that's not too bad at all. Sure the offense looks a little bit off since the beginning of the year but they still manage 5.5 yards per play in the last three games and are up against a porous South Carolina defense that has allowed 23.3 points per game in their last three on 357.7 total yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. The Gators have done a great job running the ball recently, averaging 4.3 yards per carry for 138.3 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks. Perfect. I say that because the Gamecocks sure as hell can't stop the run and they are allowing almost 160 rushing yards per game in their last three. Once things get dominant on the ground, look for QB Chris Leak to open up the air assault. He is passing for 7.0 yards per pass attempt the last three games (once again against Auburn, Georgia and Vandy) but has been sacked 7 times and thrown 4 interceptions. As well as Leak as Tebow can play together, it's time to pick a QB and stick with him the rest of the year. South Carolina's defense is about as bad as it gets in the SEC and although they haven't been all that exposed as of yet, I think it's time to see some action. The Gamecocks are allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt the last three games and don't have much QB pressuring type of athletes who can get to Leak. Both teams take an immense of amount of momentum killing penalties but I think Florida realizes how big this game is and how much they need to execute and win. South Carolina are the ones who eliminated Florida from SEC Title contention in 2005 with that upset win at home but now it's time for the Gators to get some revenge against Spurrier's Cocks who seem to be fading by the week.
Trend of the Game: The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Florida 30, South Carolina 9
Alabama Crimson Tide +18 (25 Units)
The Alabama Crimson Tide have pretty much been abandoned by most SEC bettors and sharps but that doesn't mean that their season is done and they won't be trying to win every game they play. Sure the Tide are going through a rough patch of the season but that could be in part because the defense is still young and it could be in part because the team has yet to find a groove suited to their playing style. When you look at who the Crimson Tide have beaten this season, only Hawaii looks like a valid opponent and that was the first game of the year. Ever since that time, Bama have struggle in almost all their games. The offense has been horrendous at times and you could never guess that they returned 9 starters on offense this season. The defense, who had been pegged as very bad this year, has done a good job but they have also allowed too many points to mediocre teams which should usually mean that they get blown out in SEC play right? WRONG! Alabama is the type of team you don't want to come near when it comes to betting on them as favorites but they are 2-0-1 ATS as underdogs this season and all three games were SEC road games. So basically Bama have not lost against the spread on the SEC road but they are 0-3 straight up in those games. The Tide are averaging 22.3 points per game in their last three games but they have not done much in terms of scoring points from a uniquely offensive drive. Seeing that LSU are allowing only 10.0 points per game in their last three games on only 228.7 total yards of offense allowed on 4.1 yards per play, this Bama offense is going to have to pull off some miracles. On the ground, RB Ken Darby has not run like we all thought he would this season and the team is averaging only 87.0 rushing yards per game in their last three. LSU is almost impossible to run against but Alabama is averaging a nice 119.5 rushing yards per game in Conference play which could make a difference. In the air, QB John Parker Wilson has done a decent job in Conference play, passing for 6.7 yards per pass attempt and 207 yards per game. Sure he has thrown some picks but LSU is averaging a normal 1.0 interceptions per conference game and Wilson should be fine. LSU is allowing 5.8 yards per pass attempt in Conference play and they should be able to generate some pressure on this anemic Alabama offense. However, I expect the Tide to go all out offensively in this game because LSU might still be a little bit hungover from their huge win in Knoxville last Saturday Night.
The LSU Tigers are ready to roar for this game or are they? I mean LSU are coming off a very grueling and exciting game that took forever to finish last week against Tennnessee and I would be shocked if LSU came into this game and took the Alabama Crimson Tide on a serious note. Not only is this LSU team banged up a bit and tired, but they are battling for what could still be a spot in the National Title Game should they win out and win the SEC Conference. I have LSU pegged as my #4 team in my own personal rankings which means that only Ohio State, Cal and Texas are in front of them right now in the Title hopes pecking order. What I find very interesting about this LSU team is that as much as they are good, they are only 1-4 ATS in SEC Conference play this year and it seems like they have problems covering the spread as the favorite like in this game. I mean to win your games is one thing but to keep everything close and to cover only one of four conference games on the year means that Les Miles and his guys win games, but they don't mind keeping things slow and keeping the scoring down in order to preserve and protect from serious injuries. With a somewhat easy schedule to end the season, LSU may try to stroll through the remaining games and rest up for the SEC Title Game. The Tigers are averaging 27.6 points per conference game on 400+ yards of total offense each time. However, Alabama's defense seems to be stepping things up when it comes time to SEC play and they are allowing only 20.8 points per conference game on only 292.3 total yards and only 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Tigers have used an immense amount of RB's this year and average 147.8 rushing yards per SEC game on 4.2 yards per carry. Alabama is allowing only 3.8 yards per carry in conference play this year which should end drives with punts for LSU. In the air, QB JeMarcus Russell is a question mark and although I think he plays, I don't see LSU going nuts in this one. He has thrown 7 interceptions and been sacked 13 times in SEC play this season. Alabama's defense is allowing conference opponents to complete only 56.7% of their passes this year for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The Tide have intercepted a whopping 10 INT's in conference play. They don't put much pressure on opposing QB's but they do force mistakes by shutting down the run and running some nice defensive schemes by Joe Kines. The Tide will certainly be trying to strip the ball from an LSU team that fumbles 1.8 times per conference game this season. I like LSU a lot but I think they won't take this game seriously and could come out a little bit lazy. Alabama is not a team you want to dog by this many points.
Trend of the Game: The road team is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings
Alabama 24, LSU 14
Oregon Ducks +8 (100 Units) ***SECRET NAME BIG PLAY***
After winning my big 100 unit bet last weekend with Texas A&M, I decided it was time to live the rich and famous kind of life and I asked myself, what was on the menu for this week? Since I had some good old Texas cooking last week, it was time for me to move things up a notch and request that my betting servant bring some DUCK DUCK DUCK BABY! Quack Quack Quack...it's time to get the money train rolling and pounding on the Oregon baby ducks! I was on the Ducks last week to blow the smoke out of Washington and they did. When the season started and the Ducks got off to the start they did, I sincerely thought (and I marked this down on my calendar) that this would be 'THE' game that was going to decide the PAC 10 when all was said and done. Boy was I wrong. Somewhere after marking that down on my calendar, Oregon went on to lose Cal (and I mean they got blown out) and they followed that up a few weeks later with an upset loss to Washington State. What oddsmakers are failing to realize is that this Oregon team easily competed and won against a very good Oklahoma team and they had some big wins over Arizona State and UCLA. Having played that I-AA game a few weeks back really re-energized this team. The Ducks are averaging an incredible 34.5 points per game in PAC 10 play this season and they have done it on a whopping 465.8 total yards of offense per game and 6.4 yards per play in those games. USC's supposedly strong ass defense is allowing 16.5 points per conference game this season but they are still allowing less than 300 yards of offense per game in those games. On the ground is where the Ducks need to win this game with their options by the dozen. Everyone ran well last week and Oregon is averaging an incredible 226.5 rushing yards per PAC 10 conference game on 5.6 yards per carry. Sure USC is allowing only 87.0 rushing yards per conference game but can they stop all the Oregon running options? In the air, QB Dennis Dixon is really going to have to be smart in this game because he has a serious interception problem. He is however completing 60.4% of his passes in PAC 10 play for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line has been outstanding giving him protection and he is mobile enough to move out of the pocket and take it himself. USC are allowing a surprisingly high 6.4 yards per pass attempt in conference play this season and are averaging less than one interception per game in those games. Oregon does have a problem holding onto the ball but USC have recovered only one fumble in PAC 10 play and I think the Oregon Mighty Ducks can win this game straight up and shock the college football world who have not seen USC lose two straight games since God knows when. Don't be scurrrrrrrrrrrrred...Mike Belotti had the Trojans down and out last year but he couldn't hold on and now he has the better team.
The USC Trojans are fading and their upset loss to Oregon State a few weeks back was the #1 indicator that the program is not going to win every game it plays. So a lot of things have gone bad since Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush left so why not add a second consecutive loss to the resume for good measure? I hope so. I mean when was the last time this team lost two straight? They managed to have a good game last week against Stanford (who are one of the worst teams in college football this season) but the 42-0 beating did nothing to soothe the pain of losing a game and as much as I want to think that USC comes out guns blazing in this game, they just don't seem to have that spark needed to play for the National Championship game. Pete Caroll has mentioned over and over again that his team can easily get back to the Title game with the one loss but that will all be put to an end tonight when Oregon walks into this place and hands them their first home loss since 2001. Get ready for this baby! Looking back at their last two home conference games before the Stanford game, the Trojans almost lost to Washington State and they just barely beat Arizona State the following week. Well Oregon is much better than those two teams and it's time to show the world that USC can be beaten at home. USC is averaging 29.2 points per game in PAC 10 play this season and they have done so on 391.7 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play. Oregon's defense has really stepped things up as of late and they allow 22.7 points per game in PAC 10 Conference play. In those games they are allowing only 274.8 total yards of offense per game on 4.5 yards per play. On the ground, USC is averaging 4.2 yards per carry in conference games for almost 140 yards per game. However, Oregon have held their conference opponents to less than 3.9 yards per carry this season and they have some big guys in the middle who will force USC to throw the ball and make mistakes. USC does fumble 2.5 times per conference game this season which means Oregon are bound to have one go their way (something that has rarely happened all season for this team). In the air, QB John David Booty has been outstanding and is not to blame for any of the bad play. He is completing more than 60% of his passes in conference play and is averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt in those games. However, PAC 10 teams are completing only 54.5% of their passes against Oregon this season for only 5.2 yards per pass attempt. They put a lot of pressure on QB's, have great line penetration and have great size and speed up front. This is not a team with many big playmakers in the secondary but they are a good tackling team and they do what they have to do when they have to do it. As long as Oregon can stay out of penalty trouble, this game should be all theirs. The Trojans have to face the reality that they are no longer the same Trojans team as the years past and second consecutive loss should be enough to bring them back down to earth (finally after all this time) and show them that they need to find a new identity since some of their big name players of years past are now gone.
The line is pretty damn high for a USC team that has struggle to beat conference opponents at home this season (slim wins over Arizona State and Washington State). Oregon seem to be paddling nicely in the water again these days and they seem to be wanting to show that they are the top team in the PAC 10 after USC. This is the beginning of the downfall for the Trojans. I am calling for them to lose this game, lost the game to Cal next week as well before everyone starts talking about how this program isn't the same anymore. USC's HOME WINNING STREAK WILL END TONIGHT! QUACK QUACK QUACK!
Trend of the Game: The road team is 4-0 ATS the last four meetings
Oregon 37, USC 20
RECAP:
Iowa +1.5
Florida -12.5
Alabama +18
Oregon +8
Good Luck to all!
:cheers:
2006 CFB ATS Record: 49-35-2 ATS (+70.70 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-8 (-8.80 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 5-5 (-4.50 units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 5-1 (+54.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 1-3 (-26.50 Units)
49-23-2 ATS (68%) in Football the last six weeks
I am going to be on the road all day Friday and will be too tired to post my picks on Friday Night. I am betting all of them right now at Pinnacle and hopefully for some followers, the line doesn't move too much. I was 4-1 ATS last weekend and now it's time to clean house after the Louisville fiasco last night.
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Saturday, November 11
Iowa Hawkeyes +1.5 (10 Units)
The Wisconsin Badgers have by far been one of the best ATS teams this college football season but the question remains, will this be the time of the year where they start to fizzle a little bit? Wisconsin is 7-1-1 ATS this season and they have been killing people who bet against them. So how does it make sense that the Badgers are only -1.5 in Iowa this weekend when Vegas knows that most of the betting public is going to pound the Badgers? It just doesn't make sense. My line was somewhere around a touchdown and I said to myself if it was anything but at least six points, I was going to be pounding the Hawkeyes. Wisconsin, had it not been for their loss to Michigan, would most definitely be a top team in the Nation and they would definitely be making a great case for the Big 10 Title. Pending some kind of miracle, Wisconsin will be playing for 3rd or 4th in the Big 10 which is much better than what Bret Bielema had expected or even thought of before this season started. However, QB John Stocco has a bum shoulder and he is definitely questionable for this game. Regardless of Stocco playing or not, my play is still definitely on the Hawkeyes to reward the home crowd. Wisconsin is averaging an impressive 31.0 points per road game this season on 387.5 total yards per game and 5.9 yards per play away from home. The Hawkeyes however are allowing 19.0 points per home game on 327.0 total yards and only 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB PJ Hill has been a monster all year. The Badgers should have no problems rushing the ball in this one because Iowa is allowing 149.2 rushing yards per home game on 4.2 yards per carry. However, Iowa D-Line has underachieved all season and I expect a big game. In the air, Stocco is essential to this offense but what can he do with a bad shoulder? He is passing for 8.7 yards per pass attempt on the road with only 2 interceptions thrown. He has been sacked only 6 times away from home. Iowa's pass defense is allowing home opponents to complete only 54.2% of their passes for only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. They are big time ballhawkers who have 8 INT's at home and have made some big plays. It's time for Wisconsin to falter a little bit and Iowa to step things up.
I would like to start off by saying that I love to play the Hawkeyes on their last home game of the season. I have made tons of cash doing this in the past and just realized it when I looked at the schedule and saw that this was their last of the year...coincidence. After researching things a little bit more, I found that Iowa is 13-1 ATS the last 14 years in their last home game of the season and we are about to find out if they play with a little extra spunk for the Iowa City fans in November. The Hawkeyes are coming off one of the most embarassing losses in recent school program history as they lost to the lowly Northwestern Wildcats 21-7 at home last week. The fans and the Hawkeye faithful were not happy at all. I just don't see how Ferentz won't have these guys ready for this game because the game means a lot in terms of Iowa playing in a good Bowl Game as well as Iowa restoring confidence in the Hawkeye football program. Brett Bielema (Wisconsin's head coach) used to play for Iowa back in the 1980's so this game should mean a little bit extra to him. However, what can he do about the performance of his players who don't really give a damn where he used to play or why he wants to win this? The Hawkeyes are averaging 27.2 points per home game this season on 378.3 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play. Wisconsin's defense has been rock solid away from home allowing only 15.3 points per game. They have allowed only 297.3 total yards per road game but wait a minute...those games were against Michigan (they had a bad game), Indiana (horrendous at the time) and Purdue (getting worse by the week). Much like Wisconsin, Iowa loves to run the ball and they do it well at home averaging 140.2 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry at Kinnick Stadium this year. The problem spot in Wisconsin's defense on the road is the run defense and they are allowing a whopping 149.0 rushing yards per road game on 4.2 yards per carry. In the air, QB Drew Tate was way off last week but it was to be expected after missing some time. He is still completing 61.3% of his passes at home this season for 7.4 yards per pass attempt. His O-Line is allowing only 1.8 sacks per home game but Tate has still thrown 6 of his 8 interceptions at home. Often, he has tried to do too much at one time. Wisconsin's pass defense has been good on the road but they don't get much pressure on opposing QB's and don't have many big time playmakers in their secondary. Regardless of what anyone thinks about this Iowa team, they are very good when coming off a loss and they are a very well disciplined at home. I see this as a big bounce back game for the Hawkeyes and I see this a big stepping stone for next season's team. They need this win. This is Drew Tate's last ever home game and he's not about to let it go this easily.
Trend of the Game: Iowa is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings
Iowa 27, Wisconsin 18
Florida Gators -12.5 (20 Units)
Steve Spurrier's much maligned return to Gainesville is about the only way you can summarize this game, or is it? It's not. The talk right now in Gainesville is about Florida playing for the National Title now that the Louisville Cardinals have finally lost a game. Okay who cares about that. South Carolina looked like they had really turned things around mid-season after a big road win in Kentucky followed by a big win at home against Vanderbilt. The cocks were 5-2 on the year at that point and they now had two very crucial SEC home games coming up where they were supposed to prove to everyone that this program was on the rise and that they could pull off some classic home SEC upsets. They failed miserably in both games. Not only did they lose to Tennessee and Arkansas but Spurrier and his guys were never close in either game and in both cases, the game was a waste of the 7:45pm ET time slot for college ball. Making it to a Bowl Game is almost a guarantee for Spurrier and his guys because they have Middle Tennessee at home next week and that would be the Bowl Game clincher. As much as I don't agree with them being in a Bowl Game, that's how things are. Spurrier will most likely overcoach his team for this game wanting to do too much like he did the last two games. South Carolina is averaging 25.0 points per game in their last three games on 354.0 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play. Florida's defense has been stout as usual the last three games, allowing only 20.0 points per game on 307.0 total yards of offense and 4.8 yards per play. On the ground, the Gamecocks have had success running lately averaging 136.7 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry in their last three games. However, Florida held Auburn, Georgia and Vanderbilt to an average of only 96.6 rushing yards per game for only 3.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Blake Mitchell could possibly be the starter in this game but regardless of Mitchell or Syvell Newton playing, I don't like their chances. They have thrown 5 interceptions in their last three games and although they have a lot of yardage per pass attempt in those games, most of it came when they were already down by a lot and trying to come from behind where things come a lot easier on offense. Florida's defense has played some outstanding football as their last three opposing QB's have completed only 55.8% of their passes. They have 12 sacks in their last three games and 3 interceptions in those games. With South Carolina once again having to play from behind in this game, don't be surprised if this turns into an interception fest. Florida's ability to shut down South Carolina's running attack will be an understatement to the Gators win here and as much as Spurrier wants it, he's not going to come close to winning this game.
In my eyes and in my own personal college football rankings, Florida is currently ranked #11 but that's not the point. Everyone in Gainesville seems to have Florida as the #2 team in the Country but the funny things is, I really don't think they are. Everyone is talking about them being the ones who will now play for the National Title against the winner of Ohio State-Michigan but I can name you about 9 teams who are more deserving than Florida of being in the National Title game (believe it or not I have BYU being a stronger overall team that could definitely beat the Gators). However, like I said before, as long as the Gators believe and as long as their people believe, there is no reason for me not to back this team to the end and bet on them when the opportunity is right. With the Cardinals losing that game to Rutgers on Thursday, the door is wide open for Florida to make a statement and win this game big. Urban Meyer knows that this game is huge for two reasons: a) Steve Spurrier's return to his old stomping grounds is going to have the crowd a little more jolted than usual and his Gators a little big distracted and b) the BCS Computer is watching this game and the Gators need to be impressive before their I-AA oponent next week. Florida is averaging 21.0 points per game in their last three games and considering their opponents, that's not too bad at all. Sure the offense looks a little bit off since the beginning of the year but they still manage 5.5 yards per play in the last three games and are up against a porous South Carolina defense that has allowed 23.3 points per game in their last three on 357.7 total yards per game and 5.9 yards per play. The Gators have done a great job running the ball recently, averaging 4.3 yards per carry for 138.3 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks. Perfect. I say that because the Gamecocks sure as hell can't stop the run and they are allowing almost 160 rushing yards per game in their last three. Once things get dominant on the ground, look for QB Chris Leak to open up the air assault. He is passing for 7.0 yards per pass attempt the last three games (once again against Auburn, Georgia and Vandy) but has been sacked 7 times and thrown 4 interceptions. As well as Leak as Tebow can play together, it's time to pick a QB and stick with him the rest of the year. South Carolina's defense is about as bad as it gets in the SEC and although they haven't been all that exposed as of yet, I think it's time to see some action. The Gamecocks are allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt the last three games and don't have much QB pressuring type of athletes who can get to Leak. Both teams take an immense of amount of momentum killing penalties but I think Florida realizes how big this game is and how much they need to execute and win. South Carolina are the ones who eliminated Florida from SEC Title contention in 2005 with that upset win at home but now it's time for the Gators to get some revenge against Spurrier's Cocks who seem to be fading by the week.
Trend of the Game: The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Florida 30, South Carolina 9
Alabama Crimson Tide +18 (25 Units)
The Alabama Crimson Tide have pretty much been abandoned by most SEC bettors and sharps but that doesn't mean that their season is done and they won't be trying to win every game they play. Sure the Tide are going through a rough patch of the season but that could be in part because the defense is still young and it could be in part because the team has yet to find a groove suited to their playing style. When you look at who the Crimson Tide have beaten this season, only Hawaii looks like a valid opponent and that was the first game of the year. Ever since that time, Bama have struggle in almost all their games. The offense has been horrendous at times and you could never guess that they returned 9 starters on offense this season. The defense, who had been pegged as very bad this year, has done a good job but they have also allowed too many points to mediocre teams which should usually mean that they get blown out in SEC play right? WRONG! Alabama is the type of team you don't want to come near when it comes to betting on them as favorites but they are 2-0-1 ATS as underdogs this season and all three games were SEC road games. So basically Bama have not lost against the spread on the SEC road but they are 0-3 straight up in those games. The Tide are averaging 22.3 points per game in their last three games but they have not done much in terms of scoring points from a uniquely offensive drive. Seeing that LSU are allowing only 10.0 points per game in their last three games on only 228.7 total yards of offense allowed on 4.1 yards per play, this Bama offense is going to have to pull off some miracles. On the ground, RB Ken Darby has not run like we all thought he would this season and the team is averaging only 87.0 rushing yards per game in their last three. LSU is almost impossible to run against but Alabama is averaging a nice 119.5 rushing yards per game in Conference play which could make a difference. In the air, QB John Parker Wilson has done a decent job in Conference play, passing for 6.7 yards per pass attempt and 207 yards per game. Sure he has thrown some picks but LSU is averaging a normal 1.0 interceptions per conference game and Wilson should be fine. LSU is allowing 5.8 yards per pass attempt in Conference play and they should be able to generate some pressure on this anemic Alabama offense. However, I expect the Tide to go all out offensively in this game because LSU might still be a little bit hungover from their huge win in Knoxville last Saturday Night.
The LSU Tigers are ready to roar for this game or are they? I mean LSU are coming off a very grueling and exciting game that took forever to finish last week against Tennnessee and I would be shocked if LSU came into this game and took the Alabama Crimson Tide on a serious note. Not only is this LSU team banged up a bit and tired, but they are battling for what could still be a spot in the National Title Game should they win out and win the SEC Conference. I have LSU pegged as my #4 team in my own personal rankings which means that only Ohio State, Cal and Texas are in front of them right now in the Title hopes pecking order. What I find very interesting about this LSU team is that as much as they are good, they are only 1-4 ATS in SEC Conference play this year and it seems like they have problems covering the spread as the favorite like in this game. I mean to win your games is one thing but to keep everything close and to cover only one of four conference games on the year means that Les Miles and his guys win games, but they don't mind keeping things slow and keeping the scoring down in order to preserve and protect from serious injuries. With a somewhat easy schedule to end the season, LSU may try to stroll through the remaining games and rest up for the SEC Title Game. The Tigers are averaging 27.6 points per conference game on 400+ yards of total offense each time. However, Alabama's defense seems to be stepping things up when it comes time to SEC play and they are allowing only 20.8 points per conference game on only 292.3 total yards and only 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Tigers have used an immense amount of RB's this year and average 147.8 rushing yards per SEC game on 4.2 yards per carry. Alabama is allowing only 3.8 yards per carry in conference play this year which should end drives with punts for LSU. In the air, QB JeMarcus Russell is a question mark and although I think he plays, I don't see LSU going nuts in this one. He has thrown 7 interceptions and been sacked 13 times in SEC play this season. Alabama's defense is allowing conference opponents to complete only 56.7% of their passes this year for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The Tide have intercepted a whopping 10 INT's in conference play. They don't put much pressure on opposing QB's but they do force mistakes by shutting down the run and running some nice defensive schemes by Joe Kines. The Tide will certainly be trying to strip the ball from an LSU team that fumbles 1.8 times per conference game this season. I like LSU a lot but I think they won't take this game seriously and could come out a little bit lazy. Alabama is not a team you want to dog by this many points.
Trend of the Game: The road team is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings
Alabama 24, LSU 14
Oregon Ducks +8 (100 Units) ***SECRET NAME BIG PLAY***
After winning my big 100 unit bet last weekend with Texas A&M, I decided it was time to live the rich and famous kind of life and I asked myself, what was on the menu for this week? Since I had some good old Texas cooking last week, it was time for me to move things up a notch and request that my betting servant bring some DUCK DUCK DUCK BABY! Quack Quack Quack...it's time to get the money train rolling and pounding on the Oregon baby ducks! I was on the Ducks last week to blow the smoke out of Washington and they did. When the season started and the Ducks got off to the start they did, I sincerely thought (and I marked this down on my calendar) that this would be 'THE' game that was going to decide the PAC 10 when all was said and done. Boy was I wrong. Somewhere after marking that down on my calendar, Oregon went on to lose Cal (and I mean they got blown out) and they followed that up a few weeks later with an upset loss to Washington State. What oddsmakers are failing to realize is that this Oregon team easily competed and won against a very good Oklahoma team and they had some big wins over Arizona State and UCLA. Having played that I-AA game a few weeks back really re-energized this team. The Ducks are averaging an incredible 34.5 points per game in PAC 10 play this season and they have done it on a whopping 465.8 total yards of offense per game and 6.4 yards per play in those games. USC's supposedly strong ass defense is allowing 16.5 points per conference game this season but they are still allowing less than 300 yards of offense per game in those games. On the ground is where the Ducks need to win this game with their options by the dozen. Everyone ran well last week and Oregon is averaging an incredible 226.5 rushing yards per PAC 10 conference game on 5.6 yards per carry. Sure USC is allowing only 87.0 rushing yards per conference game but can they stop all the Oregon running options? In the air, QB Dennis Dixon is really going to have to be smart in this game because he has a serious interception problem. He is however completing 60.4% of his passes in PAC 10 play for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line has been outstanding giving him protection and he is mobile enough to move out of the pocket and take it himself. USC are allowing a surprisingly high 6.4 yards per pass attempt in conference play this season and are averaging less than one interception per game in those games. Oregon does have a problem holding onto the ball but USC have recovered only one fumble in PAC 10 play and I think the Oregon Mighty Ducks can win this game straight up and shock the college football world who have not seen USC lose two straight games since God knows when. Don't be scurrrrrrrrrrrrred...Mike Belotti had the Trojans down and out last year but he couldn't hold on and now he has the better team.
The USC Trojans are fading and their upset loss to Oregon State a few weeks back was the #1 indicator that the program is not going to win every game it plays. So a lot of things have gone bad since Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush left so why not add a second consecutive loss to the resume for good measure? I hope so. I mean when was the last time this team lost two straight? They managed to have a good game last week against Stanford (who are one of the worst teams in college football this season) but the 42-0 beating did nothing to soothe the pain of losing a game and as much as I want to think that USC comes out guns blazing in this game, they just don't seem to have that spark needed to play for the National Championship game. Pete Caroll has mentioned over and over again that his team can easily get back to the Title game with the one loss but that will all be put to an end tonight when Oregon walks into this place and hands them their first home loss since 2001. Get ready for this baby! Looking back at their last two home conference games before the Stanford game, the Trojans almost lost to Washington State and they just barely beat Arizona State the following week. Well Oregon is much better than those two teams and it's time to show the world that USC can be beaten at home. USC is averaging 29.2 points per game in PAC 10 play this season and they have done so on 391.7 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play. Oregon's defense has really stepped things up as of late and they allow 22.7 points per game in PAC 10 Conference play. In those games they are allowing only 274.8 total yards of offense per game on 4.5 yards per play. On the ground, USC is averaging 4.2 yards per carry in conference games for almost 140 yards per game. However, Oregon have held their conference opponents to less than 3.9 yards per carry this season and they have some big guys in the middle who will force USC to throw the ball and make mistakes. USC does fumble 2.5 times per conference game this season which means Oregon are bound to have one go their way (something that has rarely happened all season for this team). In the air, QB John David Booty has been outstanding and is not to blame for any of the bad play. He is completing more than 60% of his passes in conference play and is averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt in those games. However, PAC 10 teams are completing only 54.5% of their passes against Oregon this season for only 5.2 yards per pass attempt. They put a lot of pressure on QB's, have great line penetration and have great size and speed up front. This is not a team with many big playmakers in the secondary but they are a good tackling team and they do what they have to do when they have to do it. As long as Oregon can stay out of penalty trouble, this game should be all theirs. The Trojans have to face the reality that they are no longer the same Trojans team as the years past and second consecutive loss should be enough to bring them back down to earth (finally after all this time) and show them that they need to find a new identity since some of their big name players of years past are now gone.
The line is pretty damn high for a USC team that has struggle to beat conference opponents at home this season (slim wins over Arizona State and Washington State). Oregon seem to be paddling nicely in the water again these days and they seem to be wanting to show that they are the top team in the PAC 10 after USC. This is the beginning of the downfall for the Trojans. I am calling for them to lose this game, lost the game to Cal next week as well before everyone starts talking about how this program isn't the same anymore. USC's HOME WINNING STREAK WILL END TONIGHT! QUACK QUACK QUACK!
Trend of the Game: The road team is 4-0 ATS the last four meetings
Oregon 37, USC 20
RECAP:
Iowa +1.5
Florida -12.5
Alabama +18
Oregon +8
Good Luck to all!
:cheers:
