MistaFlava's CFB Week 10 ***Power Selections*** (Writeups and Analysis)


2006 CFB Record: 55-42-2 (-49.60 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 45-34-2 ATS (-51.80 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-7 (+2.20 Units)

PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 5-4 (+23.00 units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 5-1 (+54.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 0-3 (-126.50 Units)

43-21-2 ATS (67%) in Football the last five weeks

Let's forget about the Army game, think positive about the Saturday and get back on track with some big winners. I am not jinxing myself with any POY's so I changed the name.


Saturday, November 4

Nebraska Cornhuskers -5 (25 Units)

The Missouri Tigers are in a very difficult position this week. They have to try to find a way to focus on the task at hand here knowing that their off week is in the shadows and knowing that they are coming off their most embarassing loss since the loss to the Longhorns in Columbia early in the 2005 season. It seems like the Tigers just can't get that big home win that will catapul this program into big things. They had every chance in the world to prove the football world that they are worthy of playing in the Big 12 Title game but the pathetic home loss at home against the Sooners last week may have just completely shattered all their dreams for the season. The last two games of the year against Iowa State and Kansas are very winnable but the point is that this team believed in itself before the Oklahoma game and now they must not be so sure. After covering 4 of the first 5 games of the season, the Tigers have now dropped two of their last three on the ATS and SU level. Making things worse? The Missouri Tigers have not won in Lincoln, Nebraska since 1978 and the way this game has set itself up to be, I don't see how that could change anytime soon. The Tigers are averaging a very nice 28.0 points per game on the road this season and have done it on 360.7 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play in those road games. However, things are about to get a lot tougher against a Nebraska defense that is allowing 14.2 points per home game on only 310.8 total yards and 4.8 yards per play (that includes the Texas game). On the ground, the Tigers have not done a good job running the ball on the road. They average only 3.8 yards per carry away from home and things won't be easier today as Nebraska is allowing only 119.8 rushing yards per game at home on 3.5 yards per carry. In the air, QB Chase Daniel is going to be a star, but it seems like he is getting rattled a bit lately. In the road games this season, he has been great completing almost 60% of his passes for a whopping 7.6 yards per pass attempt. He has been sacked only three times and thrown only 2 interceptions away from home. However, Nebraska's secondary has 5 interceptions at home this season and opposing QB's are completing only 52.6% of their passes in this Tom Osbourne nut house. Missouri have a big time problem holding onto the ball, as they have fumbled 6 times on the road this season. Nebraska has a surprising 23 forced fumbles at home this season and it's time for the Big Red defense to flex a little muscle.

The Nebraska Cornuskers are currently on their worst stretch of games they have been on all season and it's time to put an end to the madness. Bill Callahan is quite pissed off at the effort his team has given in recent week, losing on a blown lead against Texas at home and following that up last week with a horrendous effort against Oklahoma State that saw the Huskers loser by 12 points. However, they have never played well against Okie State and that was a known fact and seeing that this same Huskers team is still a nice 5-2 ATS on the season and 4-1 ATS at home this year, I would like to think this is going to be one of their best showings in a long time. They completely deserved to win the game against Texas two weeks ago but some late blunders made things tough and now it's time for redemption. The Huskers got smashed by Brad Smith and these Missouri Tigers last year in Columbia and now it's time to bring things back to Lincoln where the Tigers have traditionally struggled and as I mentioned above, have not won here since 1978. You also have to realize that this game will most likely determine the North Division's representative in the Big 12 Conference Title game which is going to be played at the end of November. With the possibility of Nebraska losing next week in College Station, I would say this is their must win of the year. The Huskers are averaging an incredible 44.0 points per game at home this season on a whopping 506.0 total yards of offense and 7.3 yards per play. The Missouri Tigers are very solid defensively and allow only 21.0 points per game on the road. In those road games they have allowed only 5.0 yards per play but how tough can they be following a roush ass home battle with the Sooners and their physical presence? On the ground, the Huskers love to run some big plays at home. They average 196.6 rushing yards per home game on 4.9 yards per carry. Missouri's D-Line is much better than Nebraska's O-Line so the Tigers will have success slowing down the run game as they have done all season. However, QB Zac Taylor is in his last year at Nebraska and 3rd year under Bill Callahan's system. He is completing 62.6% of his passes at home this season for 10.5 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown only 3 interceptions at home and been sacked 8 times. Missouri's secondary is very exposable and they are allowing opposing home QB's to complete 69.6% of their passes this season for 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Nebraska's passing game will have to be spot on in this game and Taylor is going to have to hit a few Home Runs which I know he can do. I'll go ahead and say that this is going to be a huge win for the Huskers, their fans and the program...against a Mizzou team that has not recovered from last week.

Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 4-0 ATS the last four meetings.

Nebraska 33, Missouri 21

Maryland Terrapins +20 (10 Units)

It doesn't get much hotter than the Terps if you are looking for a team that is going to give it their all each and every week like they have been doing the past month or so. Maryland kicked off their season with Bowl Game aspirations after being left out in 2004 and 2005 and big boy Fridge came as close as it gets to guaranteeing a Bowl Game. Well things looked so-so through the first 5 games but Maryland was not playing to their full potential and Fridge was getting impatient. The Terps had problems beating teams like Middle Tennessee, Florida International and William and Mary in their four games of the season and let me tell you that the prospective on the season didn't look great. However, things seem to have turned the corner after the BYE week at the end of September and it seems like the Terps are now playing their asses off in each and every game. The Terps gave Georgia Tech a good run for their money, eventually losing 27-23, and followed that with a decent effort to get by a very tough Al Groh team that almost never loses as home underdogs. Then came the great win over NC State followed by the landmark win last week against FSU at home. You now have a Terrapins team that has 6 wins on the season and that is now Bowl Eligible. Goal accomplished right? Wrong. Maryland is breating down Clemson's neck in the division and they realize that they could pull off a miracle and possibly win the Atlantic Division. The Terps average 27.0 points per game in their last three games and have somehow done so on only 282.7 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play in those games. Clemson's defense has been great all year and they are allowing only 13.3 points per game in their last three games. They are also allowing only 4.0 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Maryland have done a great job running the ball recently, averaging 143.7 rushing yards on 4.0 yards per carry in their last three games. Clemson's D-Line is tough but as Brandon Ore showed us last week, they are starting to get tired. In the air, QB Sam Hollenbach is finally coming out of his shell after all this time. He is completing 63.2% of his passes the last three games for 7.3 yards per pass attempt. In those games he was sacked only 5 times and threw only 1 interception. Clemson's defense is tough as nails but they have not been making the big plays needed to win games. They have only 1 interception their last three games and have not been jumping on loose balls. Maryland have really turned things around and I think we see it again this week as they keep this game close.

The Clemson Tigers thought the world of themselves before going to Blacksburth last Thursday and getting spanked by the home dog Hokies. What can you do anyways? Life moves on and the next game comes but does the confidence you had before carry over into this game? I don't know. I mean apart from their big home win against Georgia Tech about two weeks ago, the Clemson Tigers have not beat any valid teams along the way and their home opponents have been horrendous. They have beatup on Florida Atlantic, North Carolina and Louisiana Tech at home and as much as I would like to think positive for this team coming into this game, I just have that loss against Virginia Tech still fresh on my mind and giving them the benefit of the doubt is tough. I mean they are laying a huge 20 points which is almsot unheard of considering how Maryland has been playing and considering that Ralph Friedgen knows how to play good football in Clemson. With NC State and South Carolina coming up at home for Clemson, I think it's safe to say that the division is theirs. However, they could easily be overlooking this Maryland team and thinking they are just another Terrapins team that will struggle and fold. The Tigers are averaging 33.7 points per game in their last three (that includes the Temple game) and they also average 6.9 yards per play in those games. Maryland's defense is by no means all that good but they are tough and they do have heart. They are allowing 23.3 points per game in their last three on 393.7 total yards per game. Clemson will most likely run all day as they have amassed huge yards on the ground the last three games and Maryland is allowing 4.7 yards per carry in their last three games. In the air, QB Will Proctor looked horrendous against Virginia Tech. He has actually been playing some bad football the last three weeks, completing only 52.6% of his passes for 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Maryland's secondary is undersized and they don't have much speed but they do make some big plays. I also like the Terps pass rush that has 8 sacks in their last three games and the secondary who have 3 INT's in their last three. Sure they allow big plays in the air, but their heart and intensity makes up for it. I like the Terps to keep things close and Clemson to have some stalled drives.

Trend of the Game: Maryland is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Clemson 29, Maryland 20

Oregon Ducks -16 (15 Units)

The Washington Huskies looked pretty damn good under Tyrone Willingham and the reason I say 'looked' is because they have a big problem. QB Isaiah Stanback went down a few weeks ago and it looked like the season was all said and done for these guys. However, backup QB Carl Bonnell stepped in and did a tremendous job almost beating Cal on the road and almost beating Arizona State at home last year. However, Bonnell was rocked last week and there is a possibility that he sees limited time in this game. That would mean that the Huskies are down to their third stringer and having your 2nd or 3rd string guy (whoever it is that is playing QB for Washington today) playing in Eugene in front of the homecoming fans is a disaster waiting to happen. Washington have been killing lines all season but seeing that have never really had a great ATS season in the past, I don't see how they could improve on their already impressive 5-3-1 ATS record to this point. Looking back at some of their games, the Huskies had some great chances to beat some big name programs but once Stanback went down, all hope went down with him and it seems like the Huskies might be in a tailspin now. Washington has 4 wins on the year, needing to be Bowl Eligible. They can beat Stanford next week and would then play Washington State for the chance to play in a Bowl Game. The Huskies average 21.3 points per game in their last three and have done so on 325.3 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play. Oregon's defense has been rock solid lately, allowing 22.0 points per game in their last three on only 264.0 total yards and 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, the Huskies will have to run run and run if Bonnell is out. Problem is they average only 3.4 yards per carry in their last three games while Oregon's defense is weak against the run allowing 4.0 yards per carry in those games. In the air, Bonnell might play but his replacement would be Johnny Durocher who would get demolished in this one. Washington are completing only 48.4% of their passes the last three games for 6.5 yards per pass attempt. They have thrown 7 interceptions in those games been sacked 7 times. Oregon's defense is allowing their last three QB opponents to pass for only 5.1 yards per pass attempt and they have collected 8 sacks (most against the D-IAA team) in those games and 5 interceptions. Once Washington goes down early (they average only 10 points per first half the last three games), Oregon will make sure they don't come back on Homecoming.

The Oregon Ducks looked like they had it all earlier this season, getting all the right calls and bogus ones from the refs and beating some high profile teams to make it look like they were definitely going to be contenders in the PAC 10. However, since their big loss to Cal back at the beginning of October, it seems like the Ducks have lost their identity and it seems like they forgot how to win games big. Well they got to get rid of the cobwebs last week against Portland State in a 55-12 rout which led them into Homecoming week in Eugene which means a lot of good parties and a lot of good moods around campus. Oregon is 9-5 ATS in their last 12 Homecoming games but this is one is a little bit different because it's the team's yearly traditional ass whipping of the Washington Huskies. Oregon was upset a few weeks back when they went to Washington State but seeing how those Cougars have been playing and seeing how they could easily make a run for the 3rd spot in the PAC 10, Oregon needs to win this game and win it big in order to climb the PAC 10 Bowl pecking order. The big game against USC (who are very beatable) is next week. I don't think Bellotti's guys will be looking ahead. The Ducks are averaging 36.0 points per game in their last three on 435.3 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play. Washington's defense is weakening by the week and they are allowing 28.0 points per game in their last three on 444.7 total yards and 7.1 yards per play. Ouch...could this game be easier than Portland State? I think so. On the ground, the Ducks have had some big time running by RB Jeremiah Johnson as they average 185.3 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry in the last three. This should be a monster game for the rushing attack as Washington is allowing a crazy 188.3 rushing yards per game in their last three on 5.2 yards per carry. Johnson should have the game of his life. In the air, QB Dennis Dixon needed last week. He is completing 56.2% of his passes the last three weeks for 7.1 yards per pass attempt and only 3 interceptions. He has been sacked only 2 times the last three games. Washington don't have a pass rush to speak of and they don't have big playmakers in their secondary. In fact, they are allowing a whopping 9.6 yards per pass attempt in their last three games which means that Dixon can go deep anytime he wants. This game will get ugly fast and Oregon will look like the Ducks team we knew in the first half of the season.

Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Oregon 45, Washington 13

Oklahoma State-Texas 'OVER' 63 (10 Units)

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are ready to rock, roll and kick some dirty Longhorn ass in this game. Well maybe not but if you thought Texas Tech gave it a good run last week, wait until you see what Mike Gundy's guys are capable of this week. The Cowboys are quite possibly the most underrated team in the entire Nation and people don't realize how dangerous they are and how good they have looked. Apart from some shaddy road losses earlier in the year when the Cowboys had not found a way to get their groove on...I would like to think this team is capable of scoring a huge amount of points against just about anybody. I mean they did return 9 starters on offense this season and they did put up 40+ points in 1,2,3,4 games this season. So what's next? Well...the team is currently 5-3 on the season needing one more win to make it to a Bowl Game. However, with Baylor on deck, this is the big game for the Cowboys and their offense and this is their chance to showcase what they do best and that is sling mud back and forth with other teams. The 41-29 win over Nebraska last week should give these guys a huge confidence booster coming into this game. The Cowboys are averaging 38.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done so on 486.0 total yards and a whopping and incredible 7.3 yards per play. The Longhorns defense has not been all that solid and they are allowing 27.3 points per game in their last three on 401.7 total yards of offense and a shocking 6.4 yards per play. So much for that Hook them D-Boys. On the ground, Okie State is averaging 5.7 yards per carry for 220+ rushing yards per game in their last three but Texas has allowed 64 total rushing yards in their last three games (thats total for three games). This should force QB Bobby Reid to throw the ball like he loves to do. He is completing almost 60% of his passes the last three weeks for 9.9 yards per pass attempt. He does throw the occasional interception which I expect Texas to return for six when he does. However, the big plays will be available for Reid as Texas is allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt and their defense has not done anything impressive in almost a month now. Okie State love to fumble the ball a lot and Texas loves to punch the ball out. Look for several Okie State drives to end in turnovers in their own zone which should be automatic points for Texas.

The Texas Longhorns are almost the same gun slinging bandits they were last season when they won the National Title but the only difference between this year and last year is that the 2005 edition was allowing 16.4 points per game while the 2006 edition is allowing 27.3 points per game in their last three games (still only 16 points per game on the year). Texas, had they not lost to Ohio State would almost definitely be defending their title come January. However, who said the dream was dead? We are possibly staring at a bunch of one loss teams and once the Ohio State-Michigan battle is all said and done with later this month, someone is going to sneak into that Title game and I would love for it to be the Longhorns. I would love to say that Texas and their defense have been tough as nails at home but that was the case earlier this season and now teams like Baylor are walking into Austin and putting up 30+ points on the Horns. I mean I know losing Lokey is huge for the Horns but that most certainly cannot be the one and only problem with this defense. You also have to consider in this one that Punter Greg Johnson is being a pussy again this week and should it get to fourth down, Mack Brown will most likely go for it from just about anywhere on this field. Don't expect to see any punts from Texas in this game. The Horns are averaging 40.0 points per game in their last three games. They have done it on a whopping 422.7 total yards of offense and 5.8 yards per play while the Oklahoma State defense is allowing 31.7 points per game in their last three on 413.3 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. Did I mention that the Longhorns hate every team from Oklahoma? On the ground, Texas should have a field day busting out big runs against an Okie State defense that is allowing a whopping 206.7 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry in their last three games. Ouch...Texas should be able to break quite a few big ones in this game. In the air, Colt McCoy is a machine. He is completing 65.0% of his passes the last three weeks for 7.3 yards per pass attempt. Oklahoma State is not bad at defending the pass but they will be once Texas runs the ball down their throats. The Cowboys are allowing 6.7 yards per pass attempt the last three games which should give McCoy tons of time to get rid of the ball when not running. He has big time numbers on the year and those should grow just as much as they did when Baylor came into this place earlier last month. Texas and Mack Brown are the kind of team that will shove extra TD's down your throat at the end of games and I see that happening in this game to ensure the OVER. Texas is going to blaze while Okie State will put up their fair share.

Trend of the Game: The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Texas 44, Oklahoma State 28

Texas A&M Aggies +2.5 (100 Units) ***SECRET NAME BIG PLAY***

The Oklahoma Sooners have been the shocking story of the 2006 season and I say that because everything has been thrown at them in an attempt to derail their season and their program and the Sooners have done everything to throw it right back in the face of their opponents. First of all, QB Rhett Bomar was kicked off the team before the season even started and WR Paul Thompson had to fill in. Well Thompson has done an outstanding job leading this team. Next was the screw job in Oregon where the Sooners really won that game but the referees and the replay guys had cash on Oregon to win ML and they completely screwed the Sooners over. What did they do next? They trucked on withouth letting it bother them too much and beat Middle Tennessee 59-0 the following week. Then came the loss of Heisman Trophy candidate RB Adrian Peterson in the game against Iowa State. The loss of Peterson should have been the final nail in the Oklahoma season coffin but it wasn't. The Sooners came out and beat Colorado and Missouri to show the world that they are still a solid team. However....THEIR LUCK HAS RUN OUT THIS WEEK. You can't go into College Station without a full head of steam because you are going to get knocked back silly. Oklahoma is averaging 29.5 points per game on the road this season on 369.5 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play. Well the Aggies defense (including the 12th man) is always loud and proud and they are allowing only 16.3 points per game at home on only 308.5 total yards and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB Allen Patrick has done a great job filling in for Peterson but he is still having field vision issues that will come with time. Regardless, the Aggies are allowing only 107.2 rushing yards per home game this season on only 3.8 yards per carry. In the air, QB Paul Thompson is completing only 55.8% of his passes on the road for 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 0 interceptions. My take on that is that Thompson has been a little too cool on the road and the Aggies defense is due for some big plays at home. In five home games this season, the Aggies have only 3 interceptions but that's all about to change. Road teams are completing only 55.0% of their passes in College Station and Oklahoma won't be getting away with things this time around. I say this is the week were things finally start to head down the gutter for the Sooners.

The Texas A&M Aggies have always been one of the toughest home teams to beat anywhere in the Country. Their fans are out of control, loud and obnoxious which makes things too crazy for opposing teams who have never experienced this before. We saw it with Texas Tech earlier this year. The Red Raiders and several of their players had already played in this house and they knew what they had to do to win this game. Next came Missouri who strolled in here as a +1 point underdog only to get sent packing by a very resiliant A&M team. Now did I mention that even though this is not the Longhorns, every team from Texas absolutely hates the Sooners just as much as the Longhorns. This is one of those where the entire state bands together and unites demanding a victory from their rivals over an even bigger out of State rival in Oklahoma. The Aggies have not lost ATS as home dogs since the 2003 season and that was a year where they returned only 11 starters total. This year they returned 14 starters total and ever since the home loss to Texas Tech (a game the Aggies blew), most of the team vowed to not lose again at home this season. The Aggies average 35.2 points per game at home this season and they have done it on 414.8 total yards of offense and 6.2 yards per play. Oklahoma's defense is very solid but they are allowing a surprising 22.0 points per game on the road this season and allowing an incredibly high 430.5 total yards per road game on 5.9 yards per play. This opens the door for the Aggies to really blow this thing open. On the ground, whether in the option or not, the Aggies average 209.0 rushing yards per home game on 4.9 yards per carry. Oklahoma's defense was solid against the run but they allow 4.0 yards per carry on the road this season. In the air, QB Stephen McGee is completing 66.2% of his passes at home this season for 8.5 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown only 1 inteception at home all season and been sacked only 5 times. Oklahoma's defense is allowing 7.1 yards per pass attempt on the road this season and they have not been getting the pressure on opposing QB's. It seems like the line is a little slower on the road and they have only 2-3 sacks away from home. Sure they have a lot of interceptions but McGee is an outstanding talent that is going to make huge plays in this game. I really like how the Aggies play at home and although a lot of people will probably be on Oklahoma for this game, I just don't see how they can win or even keep up with what should be a very pumped up Aggies team that is gaining confidence by the week. Aggies to the bank in my PLAY OF THE _______!

Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Texas A&M 38, Oklahoma 20


Nebraska -5
Maryland +20
Oregon -16
Oklahoma State-Texas 'Over' 63
Texas A&M +2.5

Good Luck to all!

opposite opinion on ou/tamu , but the rest to me look like def winners however i cannot wish a loss on you for 100 units good heath bro
Love your plays except for A&M. Oklahoma is playing as well as anyone in the conference, and is far and away the best team A&M has seen. Aggies get an edge playing at home, but that's about it in this game. OU's much better all-around.
Like some others I think OU covers and aTm will lose this and out on a limb I think they will lose their next two games too. I think A&Ms coaching will get too predictable under the pressure, will get outcoached by Stoops and Co, OUs faster defense than previous A&M opponents will stop aTm, lots of distractions, and turnovers will factor in today.

I'm with you on all the other plays, always look forward to your picks, good luck to all
Off to a solid start love the card. Ya got big balls with the A&M play, so best of luck and hope ya nail it bro!
Still pisses me off to lose the total. There is a reason I stopped playing totals.

A&M BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
hey flava what you got for pro ball tomorrow? i'm eaving early to goto the tb/no game and i'm curious as to what your playing drop me a line bro
TroyStacks said:
hey flava what you got for pro ball tomorrow? i'm eaving early to goto the tb/no game and i'm curious as to what your playing drop me a line bro

About to drop a big play...should be out soon.
mistaflava. just wanted to say helluva day. u the man. gl tomm in pros. see you then. NICE HIT ON A&M too!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Excellent job flav. And while you certainly are the happy recipient of its benefits, you now know what we in Texas have known for awhile: that the idiocy of A&M coaching knows no boundaries. Nonetheless, kicking that FG instead of going for the TD was your ticket.
3 words. Francione. Pussy. Shady.
That's how that game ended, fucking pathetic. What a disgrace to the Aggie faithful and what a momentum builder that would have been to have the sack to believe in your team going in to next week vs NU. 3rd and goal from the 2 in the 4th Q. Unfucking believeable.
Mista: We got lucky with the cover on the A&M game, but I will take it!! I already liked them and when I saw how much you liked them I dbled up. Just keep the winners coming!! GL today and always.