MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 33-27-2 (+145.90 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 31-24-2 (+151.80 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
Last 3 weeks: 24-15-2 ATS (+180.50 Units)
COLLEGE GAMEDAY PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 4-0 ATS (+130.00 Units)
Week 1: ---
Week 2: Louisiana State -11
Week 3: USC -9.5
Week 4: Georgia +3.5
Week 5: California +6.5
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference, well not yet anyways and every single week that goes by brings a new lesson in the world of college football betting. Best of luck to all this week!
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Wednesday, October 3
Rice Owls +20.5 (10 Units)
The Rice Owls have not looked good at all this season but that doesn't mean they can't cover the spread in this game. Rice comes into this game 0-4 straight up on the season and 0-3 ATS having not once covered the spread as an underdog three times. They have been underdogs of 7.5 points, 27 points and 38 points this season but it didn't matter. What does matter is that this is their first CONFERENCE USA game of the year as opposed to their three lined games all being against schools from the BIG 12. It's not like these two teams have met before so we don't really know what to expect matchup wise but what we can expect is a good game from the Rice Owls because I don't think they are going to go 0-5 without putting up a fight. I mean they did impress by at least putting up 14 points against Texas two weekends ago and they did manage to score 24 points against Texas Tech the week before. This is a team that was 5-1 ATS as an away underdog last season and despite losing twice in this situation this season, you have to think that coach David Bailiff is about to turn the corner with this team that return 14 starters. I mean they have had almost 12 days to prepare for this one and I expect a lot of energy from these players. Rice comes into this game averaging only 17.2 points per game this season on only 286.5 total yards of offense and 4.0 yards per play. However, that was against some top notch Big 12 defenses like the Horns and Red Raiders and the Eagles are not quite there yet. Southern Miss has allowed 27.8 points per game this season and they have done that by allowing 383.0 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. On the ground, Rice has not had success running the football this season averaging a pathetic 2.8 yards per carry on 78.8 rushing yards per game so far. However, things might come a bit easier tonight against a smaller defensive line than their last two opponents as Southern Miss has allowed 140.3 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry. In the air, Rice QB Chase Clement has not played all that well completing only 56.6% of his passes for 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. However, we know that this kid is capable of a lot better than that and he showed it with his 21 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions as last season's starter. Southern Miss has allowed opposing QB's to complete 61.5% of their passes this season for a whopping 7.5 yards per pass attempt so you can expect Clement to have one of his best game this season. When it comes to interceptions, Southern Miss has only 3 picks on the season and they are not an aggressive go get er type of secondary. If you're going to force Clement into making mistakes you have to have an effective pass rush (Owls allow 4.3 sacks per game) but Southern Miss has shown no signs of having a pass rush as they have only 3 sacks on the season. Rice should have their way on more than one occasion in this game.
The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles played less than a week ago on the smurf turf of Boise State and boy did things ever go wrong for them in that game. Not only did they lose the game straight up and fail to cover the -10 point spread as a visitor, but they also lost starting QB Jeremy Young for about a month and that's not good news. Young is a senior and he is the offensive leader of this team with 15 starts under his belt in his career at Southern Miss. Not only is he is a mobile quarterback but he has a decent arm and can make plays happen. Southern Miss is now 2-2 straight up on the season and 1-2 ATS in those games. This is the CONFERENCE USA home opener for the Golden Eagles who have won 18 of their last 24 since 2001 when hosting a conference opponent. Prior to the 38-16 shallacking at the hands of Boise State, the Golden Eagles beatup on a I-AA school in their season opener, went to Tennessee and lost by 20 and then went to East Carolina and won by a touchdown as favorites on the road. Southern Miss is only 15-15 ATS the last seven seasons as a home favorite so their is nothing really special about playing in MM Roberts Stadium on any given night. This is going to be an interesting game for this team. The Golden Eagles come into the game averaging 24.5 points per game, which is not much better than what Rice is averaging, and they have done that on 371.8 total yards of offense this season and 5.0 yards per play. Rice has faced some stiff competiton so it's understandable that they have allowed 43.8 points per game on the season and 488.5 total yards of offense per game on 6.5 yards per play. On the ground, Southern Miss is going to have to run a lot in this one as they try and work in the new quarterback. They are averaging 165.5 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry this season but Rice has been decent against the run allowing only 4.3 yards per carry on 157.5 rushing yards per game. Not bad at all and im sure this defense knows to stack the box tonight. QB Stephen Reaves is a Michigan State transfer who completed only 51.4% of his passes last season for the Eagles on 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. He is going up against a Rice secondary shredded to pieces by much better teams than the Eagles. They have allowed 63.5% of passes to be completed against them for a whopping 9.5 yards per pass attempt. However, that was once again against Texas and Texas Tech and make no mistake about it, the Southern Miss Golden Eagles are not as offensively gifted as either one of those two teams. Not even close. In their four games this season, Rice has forced an incredible 11 fumbles so I think it's safe to assume that they are a very aggressive defense. That should help create a few turnovers tonight as the Eagles have fumbled 8 times this season and lost 4 of those fumbles. I think Southern Miss scores some points but not in an efficient enough matter to keep Rice away.
Don't think for a second that the Rice Owls can't score points. They return 9 starters on offense from last year's team that scored 24+ points in 5 of their 7 road games which is pretty damn impressive. Make no mistake about it, the fact that Southern Miss starting QB Jeremy Young is out for tonight's game is a bigger deal than people think. Because Rice has been demolished by the last two quarterbacks they have faced (Colt McCoy and Graham Harrell) it was most definitely going to take a high powered quarterback to beat them up again tonight. Well Stephen Reaves is not a high powered kinda guy and I think the offensive gameplan is going to be to pound away on the ground and keep things as simple as possible for the Michigan State transfer who struggled to complete 50% of his pass attemts last season. Rice knows that their defense is going to give up some points in the conference openers but they have a good enough offense to keepup with the sometimes ineffective Golden Eagles and for that reason alone the spread is just way too high. I like Rice to keep things close and quite possible steal a win from Southern Miss in this one.
Trend of the Game: Rice is 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.
Rice 28, Southern Miss 27
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 31-24-2 (+151.80 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2 (-0.40 Units)
Last 3 weeks: 24-15-2 ATS (+180.50 Units)
COLLEGE GAMEDAY PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 4-0 ATS (+130.00 Units)
Week 1: ---
Week 2: Louisiana State -11
Week 3: USC -9.5
Week 4: Georgia +3.5
Week 5: California +6.5
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference, well not yet anyways and every single week that goes by brings a new lesson in the world of college football betting. Best of luck to all this week!
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Wednesday, October 3
Rice Owls +20.5 (10 Units)
The Rice Owls have not looked good at all this season but that doesn't mean they can't cover the spread in this game. Rice comes into this game 0-4 straight up on the season and 0-3 ATS having not once covered the spread as an underdog three times. They have been underdogs of 7.5 points, 27 points and 38 points this season but it didn't matter. What does matter is that this is their first CONFERENCE USA game of the year as opposed to their three lined games all being against schools from the BIG 12. It's not like these two teams have met before so we don't really know what to expect matchup wise but what we can expect is a good game from the Rice Owls because I don't think they are going to go 0-5 without putting up a fight. I mean they did impress by at least putting up 14 points against Texas two weekends ago and they did manage to score 24 points against Texas Tech the week before. This is a team that was 5-1 ATS as an away underdog last season and despite losing twice in this situation this season, you have to think that coach David Bailiff is about to turn the corner with this team that return 14 starters. I mean they have had almost 12 days to prepare for this one and I expect a lot of energy from these players. Rice comes into this game averaging only 17.2 points per game this season on only 286.5 total yards of offense and 4.0 yards per play. However, that was against some top notch Big 12 defenses like the Horns and Red Raiders and the Eagles are not quite there yet. Southern Miss has allowed 27.8 points per game this season and they have done that by allowing 383.0 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. On the ground, Rice has not had success running the football this season averaging a pathetic 2.8 yards per carry on 78.8 rushing yards per game so far. However, things might come a bit easier tonight against a smaller defensive line than their last two opponents as Southern Miss has allowed 140.3 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry. In the air, Rice QB Chase Clement has not played all that well completing only 56.6% of his passes for 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 3 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. However, we know that this kid is capable of a lot better than that and he showed it with his 21 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions as last season's starter. Southern Miss has allowed opposing QB's to complete 61.5% of their passes this season for a whopping 7.5 yards per pass attempt so you can expect Clement to have one of his best game this season. When it comes to interceptions, Southern Miss has only 3 picks on the season and they are not an aggressive go get er type of secondary. If you're going to force Clement into making mistakes you have to have an effective pass rush (Owls allow 4.3 sacks per game) but Southern Miss has shown no signs of having a pass rush as they have only 3 sacks on the season. Rice should have their way on more than one occasion in this game.
The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles played less than a week ago on the smurf turf of Boise State and boy did things ever go wrong for them in that game. Not only did they lose the game straight up and fail to cover the -10 point spread as a visitor, but they also lost starting QB Jeremy Young for about a month and that's not good news. Young is a senior and he is the offensive leader of this team with 15 starts under his belt in his career at Southern Miss. Not only is he is a mobile quarterback but he has a decent arm and can make plays happen. Southern Miss is now 2-2 straight up on the season and 1-2 ATS in those games. This is the CONFERENCE USA home opener for the Golden Eagles who have won 18 of their last 24 since 2001 when hosting a conference opponent. Prior to the 38-16 shallacking at the hands of Boise State, the Golden Eagles beatup on a I-AA school in their season opener, went to Tennessee and lost by 20 and then went to East Carolina and won by a touchdown as favorites on the road. Southern Miss is only 15-15 ATS the last seven seasons as a home favorite so their is nothing really special about playing in MM Roberts Stadium on any given night. This is going to be an interesting game for this team. The Golden Eagles come into the game averaging 24.5 points per game, which is not much better than what Rice is averaging, and they have done that on 371.8 total yards of offense this season and 5.0 yards per play. Rice has faced some stiff competiton so it's understandable that they have allowed 43.8 points per game on the season and 488.5 total yards of offense per game on 6.5 yards per play. On the ground, Southern Miss is going to have to run a lot in this one as they try and work in the new quarterback. They are averaging 165.5 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry this season but Rice has been decent against the run allowing only 4.3 yards per carry on 157.5 rushing yards per game. Not bad at all and im sure this defense knows to stack the box tonight. QB Stephen Reaves is a Michigan State transfer who completed only 51.4% of his passes last season for the Eagles on 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. He is going up against a Rice secondary shredded to pieces by much better teams than the Eagles. They have allowed 63.5% of passes to be completed against them for a whopping 9.5 yards per pass attempt. However, that was once again against Texas and Texas Tech and make no mistake about it, the Southern Miss Golden Eagles are not as offensively gifted as either one of those two teams. Not even close. In their four games this season, Rice has forced an incredible 11 fumbles so I think it's safe to assume that they are a very aggressive defense. That should help create a few turnovers tonight as the Eagles have fumbled 8 times this season and lost 4 of those fumbles. I think Southern Miss scores some points but not in an efficient enough matter to keep Rice away.
Don't think for a second that the Rice Owls can't score points. They return 9 starters on offense from last year's team that scored 24+ points in 5 of their 7 road games which is pretty damn impressive. Make no mistake about it, the fact that Southern Miss starting QB Jeremy Young is out for tonight's game is a bigger deal than people think. Because Rice has been demolished by the last two quarterbacks they have faced (Colt McCoy and Graham Harrell) it was most definitely going to take a high powered quarterback to beat them up again tonight. Well Stephen Reaves is not a high powered kinda guy and I think the offensive gameplan is going to be to pound away on the ground and keep things as simple as possible for the Michigan State transfer who struggled to complete 50% of his pass attemts last season. Rice knows that their defense is going to give up some points in the conference openers but they have a good enough offense to keepup with the sometimes ineffective Golden Eagles and for that reason alone the spread is just way too high. I like Rice to keep things close and quite possible steal a win from Southern Miss in this one.
Trend of the Game: Rice is 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.
Rice 28, Southern Miss 27
GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
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