MistaFlava's CFB Saturday Week 13 ***Power Selections*** (Writeups and Analysis)


2006 CFB Record: 69-53-3 (-91.60 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 57-45-3 ATS (-182.80 Units)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-8 (-8.80 Units)

2006 CFB 2nd Half Record: 2-0 (+100.00 Units)

PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 6-5 (+15.50 units)
PLAYS OF THE MONTH: 5-2 (+26.50 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 2-4 (-86.50 Units)

My struggles continue in College Football but I have a feeling that this is going to be a breakout Saturday for me where I either clean sweep the board or come very close to it. I need this big day to have enough cash stashed up for some big Bowl Game plays. Let's try going 10 units on each play. My goal is to stay away from most high profile games because it's been the reason for my downfall lately. LETS DO THIS!


Saturday, November 25

UAB Blazers +3 (10 Units)

The UAB Blazers are only 3-8 on the season and only playing for pride right now but that's not the case with each and every player. Redshirt Freshmen QB Joseph Webb has been named the new starter for this team which is probably the best thing that has happened to these guys all year seeing that he spent countless hours studying this offense with head coach Watson Brown in 2005. Brown taught him the ins and outs so he would be ready to replace current QB Chris Williams who is a Senior and seems to have played his last down as a Blazer. Webb made his debut last week in a very good 25-20 loss to Southern Miss on the road and he passed for 137 yards, one touchdown and 11.4 yards per pass attempt. Webb is also very good on his feet and doesn't shy away from going for the big play. Anyways, the Blazers have not won a game since October 7 against Memphis at home and I don't see how this kid Webb won't give it his all heading into the spring and next season. The Blazers lost to UCF last year at home 27-21 but the loss was because they turned the ball over about 4-5 times in the fourt quarter which pretty much did these guys in and handed UCF a bullshit trip to the Conference Championship game. UAB is averaging 18.5 points per game this season on 303.9 total yards per game and only 5.0 yards per play. I expect some improvements with the young kid playing as UCF is allowing 29.4 points per game this season for 399.7 total yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. On the ground, the Blazers use their QB's to run the ball as they average 128.8 rushing yards per game but only 3.5 yards per carry. I don't doubt that Webb is going to have a lot of running options today because UCF allow 154.5 rushing yards per game on the ground for 4.6 yards per carry this season. In the air, Webb knows this offense inside out and I see him having a lot more success than Chris Williams did with his constant INT's and bad decisions. Webb has a very good arm and he showed great composure against a very good USM defense. This UCF defense is allowing opposing QB's to complete 62.4% of their passes this season for 7.7 yards per pass attempt. This UCF secondary does not have many interceptions this season and Webb should have several opportunities to show his arm strength and his his favorite target last week WR Willie Edwards (who is big, strong and can easily torch this secondary). Like I said, UCF don't have many big playmakers on defense this year and most of those guys just want their season to be over. I expect Webb to run this offense quite nicely in a game that will go a long way into measuring how UAB will be next season. Sure they missed out on a Bowl Game this year but they do have something to build on for next year if Webb can make some plays.

The UCF Golden Knights were being picked at the beginning of the year as the team that would win the CUSA East Division and head back to the Conference Championship game for the second straight year. Not happening. The Knights have lost five of their last six games, are 3-8 on the season and looking a lot like the 2004 team that went 0-11 on the year. The Knights have had all sorts of problems on both sides of the ball and George O'Leary has not been pleased with the way these guys have played. The Knights kicked off the year with a big win over I-AA Villanova but they followed that up with a road blowout loss to the Gators and then another road loss to South Florida and then a home loss to Southern Mississippi. Having never recovered from the poor start, UCF lost conference games against Rice, Houston, East Carolina and last week, the lowly Tulane Green Wave. I mean they managed to beat Memphis by two points on the road a few weeks back and I don't know if the oddsmakers have caught on to how bad this team really is. I mean who the hell goes from being a 2.5 underdog on the road against Tulane to being favored the next week at home against a team playing a hot new QB that wants to play well heading into next season? It's mind boggling but it seems like most of the general public are following the Knights on this one. UCF is averaging 18.3 points per game this season but have done it on 363.2 total yards and only 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, they average 133.5 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry but if they go down early, I don't see them taking advantage of a UAB defense that has allowed 142.2 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry. RB Kevin Smith might miss another game which would be a huge blow to an already hurting UCF team. In the air, QBs Steven Moffet and Kyle Israel are probably going to split time as they are completing 58.1% of their passes this season for 7.1 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line is pretty good and both QB's have managed to stay away from too many INT's but I expect UAB's defense to somewhat step things up in their finale. The Blazers have intercepted 11 passes this season but have allowed some big time plays through the air which could cost them some points in this game. UCF is one of the most disciplined teams in the CUSA this season but never once found the offensive groove needed to win big games and UAB is going take advantage of some UCF mistakes. The UAB defense has forced 19 fumbles this season and recovered 13 of them (UCF have forced 11 but recovered only 2). I don't see UCF shaking off the bad luck and they are only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home finales.

Trend of the Game: UCF is 1-7-1 ATS their last 9 games as a favorite.

UAB 24, UCF 21

Mississippi State Bulldogs +3 (10 Units)

The Bulldogs head into Oxford for their annual in-state rivalry game with the Ole Miss Rebels and as much as the line looks juicy on the Rebels for this one, I just don't see it happening. Okay I know starting QB Mike Henig is out but is that really a bad thing for this Bulldogs team? Henig was completing only 44.0% of his passes, had thrown only 7 touchdown passes to his 9 interceptions. His backup QB Tray Rutland, is completing 41.7% of his passes for 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The good news? They are both out this week so Sylvester Croom turns to WR/QB Omarr Conner who was the QB here last year and completed more than 50% of his passes for 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in 2005. Now you tell me who you would rather have at the QB spot because im pretty sure I would rather have the better of the QB and Conner definitely knows how to run this offense. You also can't tell me that you have not been impressed with this Bulldogs defense at times this season. I mean Croom's guys went on the road and beat UAB (which is by no means a tough task) but they also had a respectable 17 points against LSU's great defense and they lost by only three points against Georgia on the road and they went into Alabama and beat the Crimson Tide on the road. I mean that just can't be overlooked. For whatever reason, this team has played well on the road and I expect them to be fired up for this game as well. The Bulldogs are averaging 18.5 points per game in their last three games and they have done it on 284.4 total yards of offense and 4.6 yards per play. Mississippi's defense is allowing 23.5 points per game this season but are also allowing 357.5 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Bulldogs have not done much this season but they have rushed for 103.0 yards in their last three games which is a start. Ole Miss are allowing 159.9 rushing yards per game ithis season on 4.1 yards per carry so I can see the Bulldogs using Conner with his legs to get some yardage. In the air, QB Omar Conner is completing 57.7% of his passes for 781 yards on the year and a 2-2 ratio. Conner is a big play guy who can make something out of nothing. The Ole Miss defense is allowing 61.1% of opponents passes to be completed for 7.1 yards per pass attempt so expect Conner to use the deep ball. Ole Miss have no pass rush to speak of and their weak secondary has only 2 interceptions all season. ALL SEASON! That's incredible because that will probably cut down on the Mississippi State Bulldog mistakes. The Bulldogs have done a good enough job of holding onto the ball this season so I expect them to capitalize on a weak Ole Miss defense to possibly exceed expectations and win their fourth game of the year (they haven't done it since 2000).

The Ole Miss Rebels were supposed to be somewhat better than last year's 3-8 squad but as we all know, things didn't workout for them and they are once again missing out on the Bowl Season. This is a team that never found it's groove on either side of the ball and that could possibly be attributed to returning only 10 starters. Well it all comes down to one game before everyone can head to the off-season and rest for a little with another disappointing season. This game is for the BATTLE OF THE GOLDEN EGG which started back in 1927. All I know is that up until last season, the Rebels had badly dominated this series but it seems like the Mississippi State 35-14 win last season may have turned the tide in this rivalry. All it takes is one big win to break trends and a new team usually has no problems taking over. Well that big win came last year from Croom and his guys but I do have to admit that if they play a perfect game, the Rebels have a shot at this. Ole Miss has covered 5 of their last 6 lined games but most of those came as underdogs and I would never trust them as favorites, let alone three point favs. The Rebels were favored in two games this year. The first was against Memphis and they lost and the second was against Wake Forest and they got smoked 27-3. So it's safe to assume that Ed Orgeron's guys have no clue what they are doing as favs. Ole Miss is averaging only 15.3 points per game for only 267.0 total yards per game and only 4.5 yards per play. This offense sucks. The Mississippi State defense is allowing 26.3 points per game this season but they allowed only 332.4 total yards per game and only 5.5 yards per play. On the ground, the Rebels averaged some decent yardage per game (131.5) but managed only 3.5 yards per carry which won't do much against a solid Mississippi State defense that allows only 120.6 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. In the air, QB Brent Schaefer has completed only 47.1% of his passes for only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. 8 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Mississippi State have done a good job on the number of completions against them but they allow a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt and the big plays have killed them all year. Their secondary has picked 11 passes which is 9 more than the Rebels and Schaefer is very interception prone. I expect both teams to trade shots at this game gets older but in the end, Omar Conner makes bigger plays than Brent Schaefer which means that if playing from behind, the Rebels are going to be in trouble. I see this game coming down to the wire with Mississippi State having a lead and possibly winning or losing this game by one or two points. Regardless, Ole Miss doesn't have what it takes to win this game three points or more so I am taking the points and running.

Trend of the Game: Ole Miss is 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite of 3 or less points.

Mississippi State 22, Ole Miss 21

Rice Owls pk (10 Units)

The SMU Mustangs have not been to a Bowl Game since 1984 when they went to the Aloha Bowl and somehow beat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Yes those were the days but these are the new days and things have chanced. SMU already has the six wins necessary to be considered for a Bowl Game but with so many six win teams making it to six wins this season, it will probably take 7 wins for teams who want to play in Bowl Games out of smaller conferences like the CUSA. SMU has been on quite the roll as of late and I don't know how to explain it. I see that they have won three of their last five games but when I take a closer look, most of those were home games and I have yet to see anything from this team outside of Dallas and Gerald J. Ford Stadium. The Mustangs have been on the road for 5 games this season. The first one was a loss to Texas Tech by 32 points, the second road loss was to the pathetic North Texas team that i'm not sure has won a game since, the third road game was against Tulane where the Mustangs barely escaped with a five point win as a three point favorite, the fourth game on the road was in UTEP where the Mustangs lost the game as 13 point underdogs and last but not least, their last road game was against East Carolina and they lost by 17. So that means that SMU is 0-4 straight up against in-state teams and 1-3 ATS in those games. The Mustangs are averaging 27.1 points per game this season and have done it on 323.4 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play. Rice's defense has never been all that good and they allow 33.1 points per game this season for 430.5 total yards and 6.5 yards per play. On the ground, SMU is averaging 123.9 rushing yards per game on only 3.7 yards per carry. Rice is a team you really need to attack on the ground because they allow a whopping 5.5 yards per carry this season on 195.8 rushing yards per game. The only problem here is that QB Justin Willis is their leading rusher with 344 yards on the year and he alone won't be enough to attack this Rice defense. Willis is completing 65.7% of his passes this season for 7.4 yards per pass attempt. He has not thrown many INT's and has not been sacked all that much which means that SMU might have a good chance in this one. However, Rice's secondary allows big plays here and there but they also hold opponents to a 57.1% completion rate on the season which means we will see several third and long situation for Willis. This Rice team is very good at forcing turnovers as they have recovered 15 fumbles this season and that could play a big part in this game. SMU can score but the lack of rushing attack could hurt them and I don't like them if they have to come from behind. This is just not their year to reach a Bowl Game.

The Rice Owls have everything on the line today as they bid farewell to their Seniors and take on their cross-state rivals for one last time. Rice has dominated this series over the years and with so much on the line and such a juicy line, I don't see how the hot streak won't continue into the evening and into the Bowl Season. Rice are 6-5 on the year but as I was explaining earlier in this writeup, 7 wins are needed by teams from the CUSA who don't win the conference because so many teams are Bowl Eligible with six wins that they most likely won't be invited. So this is the biggest game the program has seen in several years. The Owls have not been to a Bowl Game since 1961 and losing this game is pretty much not an option. I know only about 10 000 fans come out every game to see the Owls but this is even more reason to come see them because not playing in a Bowl Game for 45 years is a big deal and winning this game could quite easily change the face of this program forever. Rice is coming off an impressive home win over East Carolina and even more impressive is the roll this team is on having won 5 straight games and turning their season around to the point of no return. Along the way they beat UAB, UCF, UTEP, TULSA and last week East Carolina. Those are some big time wins and it should have them ready. The Owls are averaging 27.5 points per game this season and have done that on 350.8 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play. SMU's defense has been quite solid as they have allowed only 23.9 points per game this season but their schedule was nowhere near as tough as Rice's schedule which is something people tend to forget about this team. SMU has allowed 359.7 total yards per game on 5.2 yards per play this season. On the ground, Rice are averaging a nice 144.2 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry. RB Quinton Smith has been a superstar on this team rushing for 1000 yards and 9 touchdowns. SMU's run defense is pretty good as they allow only 3.4 yards per carry and something like 110 rushing yards per game. However, Smith is playing his last game as an Owl and playing one more time after this would mean a lot. The concern is that QB Chase Clement could miss this game but I have a feeling he'll be ready. Clement is very underrated and has passed for 21 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions in the school's first year of option to spread conversion offense. Clement is a key piece to this Rice puzzle because although he doesn't make huge plays, he is a very good short pass passer. SMU's pass defense is horrendous as opponents are completing 64.2% of their passes against them for 6.9 yards per pass attempt which is right up the Rice ally for the type of QB they want in there. Rice have lost only 6 fumbles all season and in a game where turnovers are going to be the difference, I am glad that I have bet on a team that controls the ball and takes good care of it. The first Bowl Bid in 45 years for this school is on the line here and I don't think Todd Graham wants to miss out on this. Major Applewhite (ex Texas QB) has made a huge difference for this offense as the O-Coordinator and I expect him to lead these guys to one more win from the bench.

Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Rice 26, SMU 25

Arkansas State +6 (10 Units)

The Arkansas State Indians would have needed one more game to have a great chance at winning the Sun Belt Conference but their 6-5 record isn't worth very much heading into this thing considering that they have already lost to Conference leaders Middle Tennessee. To put this in a nutshell, this team is currently Bowl Eligible which means jack squat because they only have six wins and as I have mentioned many times before, I don't think those six wins are enough to get small conference teams into the Bowl Season. Seven wins will definitely help their cause but once again, nothing is sure because so many big conference teams ended up with six wins this season. Arkansas State were supposed to have a losing season in 2006 but that hasn't been the case and the worst that can happen now is them finishin a .500 with a loss. The Indians had lost three straight games and been shutout twice before they shocked Troy on the road last week with a 33-26 win. It seems like this team has been rejuvenated out of nowhere and hopefully they are back in the same mood as they were in when they won against North Texas, Memphis, ULM and Florida International. We can't forget that the Indians beat a decent Army team to open the season and they do have a lot of talent. The Indians are averaging only 15.4 points per game this season but they have done it on a decent 307.5 total yards of offense and 4.6 yards per play. Louisiana Lafayette's defense has allowed 24.4 points per game this season on 319.1 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, Arkansas State average a nice 161.7 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry as freshman Reggie Arnold is 80 yards shy of the 1000 yard mark which would indicate that the team has had no problems replacing Antonio Warren. UL Lafayette are allowing only 3.5 yards per carry this season but expect Arnold to keep them honest and open things up for the passing attack. QB Corey Leonard is also a freshman who has done a decent job after taking over the starting duties mid-season. He is completing 50.0% of his passes for 6.2 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. UL Lafayette's secondary is pretty damn bad as they allow opposing QB's to complete 63.8% of their passes this season for 7.5 yards per pass attempt. They have intercepted only 7 passes all year and their pass rush is not vicious enough to get through to the freshman QB and his pathetic offensive line. As long as this Arkansas State team, led by two freshmen rising stars, can avoid the costly fumbles and interceptions (I don't think they can do it with perfection but still), the Indians should win a very close game against a team that really isn't better than them.

I don't know what everyone is talking about when they want to pound U-LA-LA because the last time I checked, the last seven times these two teams have played against each other, the game has been decided by six points or less which makes it completely ridiculous to have such a spread on a game like this. What have the Ragin Cajuns done to deserve being favored in a game like this anyways? I mean apart from having only five wins and being one of the biggest disappointments in this conference this season, I don't see a reason for them to be favored by this many points. They were expected to win at least seven games this season if not more but pathetic losses have shattered those dreams and now it's to settle for what's there. They too can play in a Bowl Game should they win this game and the next game but thats seem quite unlikely at this point. UL Lafayette managed to beat Florida Atlantic by only six points about a month ago and then followed that up with a homecoming home loss to Middle Tennessee. That was then followed by an ass whipping at the hands of Troy in Troy and then came the even more pathetic home loss to a North Texas team that has looked atrocious all season long. Did I mention that they looked horrendous last week against Florida International and I just don't buy this crap that they will play well here. The favorite in this series has covered only once in the last eight meetings. The Ragin Cajuns are averaging 20.0 points per game this season on 307.7 total yards per game and 5.0 yards per play. Arkansas State's defense has allowed 23.7 points per game this season on 303.7 total yards per game and 5.5 yards per play which is not all that bad. On the ground, UL Lafayette is averaging 182.3 rushing yards per game this season on 4.2 yards per carry and should RB Tyrell Fenroy rush for 103 yards in this one, he too will reach 1000 yards. Arkansas State's rush defense has sucked all year as they allow 4.3 yards per carry but unless the Cajuns can thrown the ball as well, they won't get anything special done with the ground attack. In the air, QB Jerry Babb has not played well at all. He is completing 50.9% of his passes on the season for 5.8 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown 10 interceptions on the season so far which could be a big problem against an Arkansas State defense that has a whopping 18 interceptions on the year and that is allowing opposing QB's to complete 57.1% of their passes for big yardage. This is another one of those defense that take big risks and love playing the do or die kind of game. Those are always fun because they result in several turnovers caused for if the opposing team has problems, which UL Lafayette does. I don't know where this line comes from but what I do know is that this another Louisiana versus Arkansas matchup and seeing that the Tigers won the big game, it's time for the Indians to salvage a little pride and win a game of their own to complete a very good season.

Trend of the Game: The Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

UL Lafayette 21, Arkansas State 20

Arizona State Sun Devils +3 (10 Units)

The Arizona State Sun Devils have been as Jeckyll and Hyde as it gets this season and it's pretty much impossible to predict what they will do on any given. However, I was reading an article that indicated that this is a team that wins games where nobody in the world thinks they can win the game and this is a team that loses games where nobody in the world thinks they can lose the game. Funny how things workout but their season has been so up and down that Dirk Koetter is most likely going to be fired after the year after coaching here for seven seasons. The 6-5 Sun Devils had been predicted as one of the 8+ win teams in the PAC 10 this season but if only they had played up to their abilities in important games, they could easily have 8 or 9 wins right now but that's evidently not the case. I mean out of their six wins this season, the win over Washington State at home was probably the biggest but other than that they have not shown any signs of life against better teams and they will need to be hot in this game if they want to win against their in-state rivals. This is a team that beat Colorado on the road, lost to Cal on the road, had a great showing against USC on the road losing by only seven points and most recently that got demolished on the road in Corvallis by the Beavers. It's time for a shocker. The Sun Devils average 26.9 points per game this season on 359.5 total yards of offense and 5.5 yards per play which is a lot less than most expected and the lowest point total in three years. Arizona's defense has allowed only 18.8 points per game this season on 316.9 total yards per game and 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, RB Ryan Torrain has been on a tear and he needs only 70 yards in this game to reach the 1000 rushing yards plateau. That would be huge for this team because they love to run the ball and are averaging 161.9 rushing yards per game this season on 4.3 yards per carry. Arizona's run defense should have some success stopping these guys as they allow only 3.8 yards per carry on the year but expect Torrain to have some big league plays in this one. In the air, QB Rudy Carpenter is completing only 53.9% of his passes this season for a nice 7.3 yards per pass attempt and the big play possibility is always there for this team. He has been sacked one too many times this season but luckily for him, Arizona don't have much of a pass rush and we don't have to worry. However, Carpenter needs to cutdown on the long passes and hit receivers on shorter routes because the Arizona secondary has interception ability and Carpenter tends to get careless in many games this season. Carpenter has thrown 4 INTs while trying to do too much the last three weeks so it's back to basics for him and coack Koetter. I seriously think they have a great chance to win this game straight up like they did last year.

The Arizona Wildcats are definitely living up to the name as one of the most improved teams from last season in college football. Mike Stoops and his troops were a pathetic 3-8 last year but they have turned things around in the second half of this season and they are now currently sitting pretty at 6-5 and heading back to a Bowl Game for the first time since 1998 is almost a lock right now. They have covered three straight games and won four of their last five and all of that can be attributed to the (finally!) emergence of QB Willie Tuitama who seems to have taken half the year off but is now considered one of the best QB's in the PAC 10. The recent Arizona wins over Washington State, California and last week Oregon are quite possibly one of the most impressive stretch of three wins the PAC 10 has seen all season which brings me back to the question of why is this team only favored by three points in this game? I mean I know Tuitama is banged up and all but there is no way he missed this game. Even then, overall on the season, I think Arizona State has been the better team overall which gives them a great shot of winning this game. The Wildcats are averaging only 16.8 points per game on the year and they managed to do that by averaging 260.5 total yards per game and only 4.3 yards per play. Arizona State's defense is allowing 24.6 points per game this season which could be their best defensive output and performance in almost six or seven years if it stands. They allow 310.5 total yards of offense on only 5.0 yards per play this season and the defense is probably the only reason this team has six wins. On the ground, the Wildcats average only 88.8 rushing yards per game this season on 2.7 yards per carry which is sad because it would really compliment the passing attack. Arizona State have allowed only 3.7 yards per carry this season so expect them to shutdown RB Chris Henry here. That would make Tuitama throw the ball a lot more. We can't forget that as good as Willie has been, he is still completing only 55.5% of his passes this season for 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He has been sacked quite a few times which is not good news because the Sun Devils bring a lot of four man or five man pressure rushes and they have 28 sacks on the year. They also have 12 interceptions and if Tuitama gets careless with the ball again, the Sun Devils will make him pay for his young mistakes. The Arizona State defense has forced 24 fumbles this season and their defenders are mostly taught to reach for the ball while tackling and try to pry that thing out of there. Arizona has not done well in home finales and seeing that Arizona State beat these guys last season in a close game, I don't see why they can't walk into Arizona Stadium and do the same thing all over again.

Trend of the Game: Arizona is 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home finales.

Arizona State 23, Arizona 20

East Carolina Pirates +3 (10 Units)

This game couldn't have come at a better time for the East Carolina Pirates because they are currently 6-5 on the year, there is still a small chance that they could play in CUSA Conference Championship game next weekend if Southern Miss were to lose today and Skip Holtz finally gets to show everyone that his team can beat a big conference middle of the pack team. The Pirates, don't forget, are not a bad team. They came within 5 points of beating Navy on the road in their season opener and they lost by only 17 to West Virginia in the same month. ECU also beat Virginia by 10 points at home, creamed SMU at home, went on the road and beat Southern Miss by a field goal and then came the two wins against UCF and Marshall. After coming out of the gates pretty damn slowly last week, ECU somehow lost to Rice by one point but now it's time get things back on track. Did you know that East Carolina was 4-0 ATS this season when coming off a loss? They are 9-2 ATS on the year and although this line does look a little bit shaddy because the size of the two programs is so different, you have to believe in the power of the pirate because keep in mind, they beat Virginia at home as a favorite. ECU is averaging 24.3 points per game in their last three games and they have done it on 330.0 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play. NC State's defense is no pushover as they have allowed 24.7 points per game in their last three games and have done it by allowing 346.0 total yards per game and 5.3 yards per play. On the ground, East Carolina doesn't have much of a rushing attack as they average 154.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 3.8 yards per carry. NC State for whatever reason have allowed 180.0 rushing yards per game in their last three on 4.4 yards per carry. RB Brandon Fractious has run the ball quite well lately so I see him having a good day on the ground. In the air, QB James Pinkney knows this is his last regular season game so it's time to make it a good one. He is completing 62.8% of his passes for 6.8 yards per pass attempt the last three weeks but has been sacked 11 times and thrown 4 interceptions. NC State's pass defense is pretty good as the last three opposing QB's have completed less than 50% of their passes for 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Seeing that NC State have only 4 sacks in their last three games, it seems like Pinkney might have more time than we think to get rid of the ball. As long as he can stay away from making that one stupid mistakes, the East Carolina Pirates are going to flex some offensive power and win this game on a late drive and game winning FG.

The NC State Wolfpack were picked as one of the team's that would be fighting for the basement spot in the ACC Atlantic Division and although that seems to be the case here, don't try telling Chuck Amato that. The Wolfpack returned only 10 starters at the beginning of the year but some other experts were calling for them to possibly overachieve like last year's group and somehow make it into a Bowl Game. That's not happening this year because the Wolfpack couldn't handle the tough schedule and they now find themselves with a 3-8 record on the year. The Wolfpack have not won a game since October 5 when they upset Florida State at home but that really seems like ages ago. Since that win, they Wolfpack lost to Wake Forest, Maryland, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Clemson and last week to North Carolina on the road. You would think that a schedule featuring so many TOP 25 teams would do a team good but it has done this team some bad because they are beatup, tired and looking for a way to end this damn season. Their home loss to Akron in their second game of the year pretty much set the wrong tone for this team all season long and I don't think they ever really recovered from that loss. NC State is averaging 15.3 points per game in their last three games and have done it by averaging 314.0 total yards per game and only 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, the two headed RB monster still hasn't developped into anything special as this team has rushed for 105.3 yards the last three games on 3.4 yards per carry. East Carolina are good against the run as they have allowed only 90.7 rushing yards per game in their last three for only 3.5 yards per carry in those games. In the air, QB Daniel Evans has looked pretty bad, completing only 44.5% of his passes the last three weeks for 5.3 yards per pass attempt. He has been sacked 6 times and thrown 5 interceptions in those games. Although ECU don't have many blitz packages that could pressure Evans in this game, they do have a good secondary that has allowed only 52.8% of passes to be completed the last three weeks for only 6.3 yards per pass attempt and a very nice 5 interceptions. This is not a flashy group of players but they do what it takes to win as a team and NC State's season from hell is almost done and the players probably won't give it their all in this one. Just in case going to the CUSA Title game doesn't workout for ECU, they badly need this win to almost assure themseleves of a Bowl Bid. The Pirates slay the Wolfpack!

Trend of the Game: East Carolina is 5-0 ATS their last give games that follow a straight up loss.

East Carolina 25, NC State 16

Florida International Golden Panthers +4 (10 Units)

The Florida International Panthers are probably being called the worst team in Division I-A college football but let me ask you this...do you really rate Florida Atlantic anywhere above these guys? I mean the Panthers are 0-10 on the year and have not had much luck on their side. They have however kept some games very close like their season opening 7-6 loss to Middle Tennessee or their 21-20 loss to South Florida and how about the 5 point loss to Bowling Green and the 4 point road loss against Maryland? I mean come on guys...this team is not all that bad with or without all their players. This game is being played in Dolphin Stadium so the field is even and there are no Florida Atlantic home fans to make a little noise for their boys. In fact, I expect this Florida International squad to be on their best behavious because of what happened the last time they were playing in high profile Miami stadium. The Panthers are coming off a respectable 17-7 loss against Louisiana Lafayette and for whatever reason, I feel like this team is about to explode with a great performance to salvage some of the very bad season. They are 0-6 ATS in their last six games but it's time to shake things off against their easiest opponents of the season. The Panthers are averaging only 10.2 points per game this season but have been unlucky agaist some big conference teams. Sure they average only 4.0 yards per play but this game today should be a lot easier seeing that Florida Atlantic's defense is allowing 27.2 points per game this season on 346.0 total yards per game and 5.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB A'Mod Ned has not done much all year but we could see a breakout performance today against a Florida Atlantic run defense that is allowing a whopping 173.6 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry this season. The Panthers average only 61.2 rushing yards on the year but you always have to start somewhere for next year. In the air, QB Josh Padrick has passed for 1500+ yards, completed 54.7% of his passes for 5.7 yards per pass attempt but has only 4 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. The Owls defense has been pretty good at times this season as they allow opposing QB's to complete only 54.0% of their passes for 6.9 yards per pass attempt but have no pass rush to speak of. However, the Owls defense does have 17 interceptions on the season so if Padrick isn't careful he could be in trouble. I expect the running attack to open things up in this game. Ned had 78 yards on only 9 carries in the blowout win over Florida Atlantic last year so Padrick may not have to do as much as we think which can only be good. The Panthers should be pumped for this one because it's in Miami (their hometowns) and its a great chance to get win #1.

The Florida Atlantic Owls are not playing at home this week. Just to clear that up because I have seen so many people writting about them winning this home game quite easily over the Golden Panthers. This is by far more of a home game for the Panthers because they are playing in Miami (where their Campus is located anyways) and the fans in attendance will be from both sides. How quickly everyone has forgotten about the 52-6 win last year by Florida International over these Owls. So they call this the SHULA BOWL which is quite funny if you ask me because this is by far the closes either team will get to a Bowl Game in the next 10-15 years of college football. The Owls, unlike the Golden Panthers, have won four games this season but have not done nearly as well against non-conference teams as Florida International did. The Owls got demolished by Clemson, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and South Carolina to open their season 0-4 as expected. Their wins came against UL Monroe, Southern Utah (I-AA), Arkansas State and most recently a one point win on the road over North Texas. The win over NT was huge so this could be a nice letdown situation for these guys. The Owls are 0-2 in home finales in either Lockhart or Dolphin Stadium. The Owls are averaging only 13.6 points per game this season on only 291.5 total yards of offense and 4.4 yards per play. Florida International's defense is allowing 25.6 points per game on the year but have done a great job and have held opponents to only 295.2 total yards of offense and only 4.4 yards per play. On the ground, Florida Atlantic average 106.5 rushing yards per game this season but those rushes amounted to only 2.9 yards per carry. FIU are very stout against the run allowing only 3.5 yards per carry so you can forget about the Florida Atlantic running game being explosive in any which way. In the air, QB Rusty Smith is in for the Owls and he has completed 54.6% of his passes for 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. The offensive line is allowing 2.2 sacks per game this season and they will be pressured by FIU's pass rush that has 23 sacks on the season and some big kids that will be all over Smith today. The Panthers also have 11 interceptions on the year so that pressure could be useful if the secondary is going to need big plays. FIU is allowing only 6.0 yards per pass attempt this season and their defense has quite nicely improved since last season and the season before. Both teams take a lot of penalties but I just don't see how this game has such a high number attached to it when the Panthers will do everything it takes to try and get their first win of the season. Today is not the day of the Owl...

Trend of the Game: Florida Atlantic is 0-4 ATS their last four games as a favorite.

Florida International 19, Florida Atlantic 18

Wake Forest Demon Deacons +1.5 (10 Units)

Okay I will have to right off the bat admit that I made a big mistake by backing the the Decons last week because Virginia Tech is and always was the better team but the oddsmakers are not fooling me twice here. As much as the Deacons got manhandled last weekend against the Hokies, I still feel that they are the better team than Maryland. You know this Wake Forest team still has a shot at the ACC Title game but they need to win this game first and worry about other teams later. This is one of the last game's of the night and hopefully their chances are still very much alive once gametime shows up. Regardless of what happened last week, this is still a Wake Forest team that plays with energy and that is 9-2 on the season. Their five road game this season were all wins which is probably one of the most impressive assets belonging to this Jim Grobe team. In their first road game of the season, the Deacons managed to beat UConn by 11 points and then followed that up with a 27-3 win in Ole Miss. Then came the impressive 25-23 road win against NC State which was followed by a big seven point win against conference rivals North Carolina who are playing some great football now. To top things off, the Deacons beat Florida State 30-0 on the road two weeks ago and it's hard to ignore something like that. The Demon Deacons are averaging 26.0 points per game on the road this season and average 270.8 total yards per game and 4.9 yards per play in those games. Maryland's defense is allowing 15.2 points per game at home this season and they have done so by allowing 336.3 total yards of offense and 5.0 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the Deacons have 5 running backs with 150+ rushing yards on the season and all of them average at least 4.1 yards per carry and have have a combined 12 touchdowns. The team is averaging 170.0 rushing yards per road game on 4.0 yards per carry and they get to face a Maryland defense that allows 130.7 rushing yards per home game on 3.9 yards per carry. In the air, QB Riley Skinner has been outstanding filling in for Mauk this season. He is completing 63.5% of his passes on the road this year for 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line does a great job of protecting Skinner and he has yet to throw an interception away from home this season. Maryland's secondary is allowing 6.0 yards per pass attempt at home this season but don't have much of a pass rush that can pressure Skinner into mistakes like last week. Sure they are allowing only 55.0% of passes to be completed against them at home but Wake Forest has the ability to run all over the Terps and make them keep things honest once they decided to pass the ball. The Terps have only 5 interceptions at home and have forced only 6 fumbles on home turf. Wake Forest is going to come out hard in this game because their critics were out in full force after the loss to Virginia Tech and this team wants to prove that their 9-2 record is legit and that they can play for the Conference Championship next weekend. I just don't see the Deacons playing as poorly as they did last weekend because they are truly a decent team and they have a lot to prove.

The Maryland Terrapins had quite the run going until they lost to Boston College on the road last week. The loss doesn't do anything to hamper their chances of playing in a Bowl Game but the loss ensured that they would not be playing for a Conference Title so this game doesn't have much meaning to it. Maryland is a perfect 7-0 ATS and straight up against Wake Forest the last seven meetings but this is by far the best Wake Forest that has faced Maryland the last seven years and seeing that they are that good, they will surely want to break this curse. The Terps had won five straight games heading into the Boston College game but that quickly turned to disaster and the team morale could be a little bit off today. This is still the same Maryland team that struggled to beat I-AA William and Mary at the beginning of the year, that struggled to beat Middle Tennessee in their second game of the year and that almost lost to Florida International right here in Byrd Stadium on the fourth Saturday of the season. The Terps are 1-3 ATS as home favorites this season and although this game might reach a PK by the time I bet on it, I have no doubts that Wake Forest should be favored here and not Maryland. History aside, the Deacons are the more talented and the more inspired team right now which goes a long way in games like this. The teams are quite even and we could be in for one hell of a game. Maryland is averaging 22.0 points per home game this season and they have done it by averaging only 279.3 total yards of offense and 5.3 yards per play at home. Wake Forest have come a long way defensively since the last few times these two teams have met and the Deacons are allowing only 11.2 points per road game this season on 280.8 total yards per game and only 4.2 yards per play. On the ground, the Terps average 129.7 rushing yards per game this season on 3.7 yards per carry at home which is good but not good enough against Wake Forest. The Deacons are allowing 89.4 rushing yards per road game this season and have allowed only 2.6 yards per carry in those games. That puts this game squarely on the shoulders of QB Sam Hollenbach who has been great at home, completing 60.4% of his passes for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown only 2 interceptions at home this season and is getting good protection from his line when playing in College Park. However, Wake's defense plays with a lot of heart and they have held road opponents to a 53.3% pass completion rate away from home for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt. The Deacons have a vicious pass rush that has given them 16 sacks in five road games this season and they have intercepted 10 passes away from home. Hollenbach hasn't made that many mistakes at home but with the pressure up front and the ability for the Wake Forest secondary to disguise safeties in schemes, I look for this defense to make some big time game changing plays. The Wake Forest defense has also forced 11 fumbles in only five road games and I expect them to create turnovers putting them in a great position to win this game. Maryland had their run this year but the magic is gone and I don't see them recovering from a loss as well as Jim Grobe's guys who have a lot more to play for in this game. Wake Forest is going to go 6-0 on the road after this one.

Trend of the Game: Wake Forest is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog 3 points or less.

Wake Forest 24, Maryland 13

UCF sucks dick (obviously), I still can't figure out that line. GL bro
NickFazekas said:
UCF sucks dick (obviously), I still can't figure out that line. GL bro

Hey man, have you seen or were you there for the fighting between UNLV and Nevada fans after the football game earlier this year? I saw the videos on YouTube and it's hilarious....were you involved? LOL
Yeah I was there, things got a little heated. I wasn't near the Nevada section, so I made it out unscathed. Do you have a link to the youtube lol?
Holy Crap man, I never saw those fights lol. Thats kick ass!!!
That one dude trying to jump those big guys doesn't have a clue that those guys could knock him inside out...what a douchebag. LOL!
I have you know abcs, Nevada Reno is a third tier school on par with Oregon st, Arizona st, Texas Tech. It's UNLV thats a joke.
NickFazekas said:
I have you know abcs, Nevada Reno is a third tier school on par with Oregon st, Arizona st, Texas Tech. It's UNLV thats a joke.

Its cool Nick.. I would love to go there just for the girls :cheers:

:bow: Nick F's PPG
51 yard FG missed, Miss State pushes.

I cant catch a break today...still without a penny to show for the early games.
I'll only be happy if I can finish 6-1-1 on the day. It all starts with Rice winning this game...CMON!

Finally a winner to celebrate about.

1-1-1 on the day, looking to finish 6-1-1 when all is said and done. LETS HAVE A GOOD NIGHT!

:wacka wacka:
Trust me guys, betting on FIU was a mistake of a lifetime...I have never seen a football team play like that and shame on me for betting on two Sun Belt games...thanks god those are done.
Anyways, looks like it might be a 4-3-1 day which is once again pretty damn average but I'll keep doing what I do and see what happens. Lets make some mad cash in the NFL tomorrow. I think the reason I do better in weekday games is because I can concentrate on one game to cap to the extreme while days like Saturday I don't dedicate as much time capping each game. Anyways, disappointing day, time for some NFL pounders.
thats fact flava how about 5-0 tomorrow. if i know you like i think i do i already have your card made as i will be on them as well