MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 52-48-3 (-31.10 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 50-45-2 (-25.10 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
This Week: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference, well not yet anyways and every single week that goes by brings a new lesson in the world of college football betting. Best of luck to all this week!
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Friday, October 26
Fresno State Bulldogs +3 (5 Units)
The Boise State Broncos are most certainly not having the same kind of season as they were having last year and despite sitting at 6-1 straight up on the season, don't look like they are going to come anywhere near the BCS standings this time around. This is only Boise State's third away game of the season and they haven't exactly looked sharp in either one of their road games. In their road opener they were favored against Washington and lost 24-10 (doesn't look so good anymore does it? The Huskies are terrible) and in their second road game last week they looked sluggish and had problems beating Louisiana Tech. I don't know if you guys know this but Boise State went 1-4 ATS as a road favorite last season and are now 0-2 ATS in that spot this year so what makes anybody like them here is beyond me. You have to understand that when a team has so much of a home advantage like Boise State does with their blue colored smurf turf, they tend to get away from the basics of football when playing on the road. Boise State have really dominated this series the last five or six years but they lost by 20 in their last visit to Fresno and they haven't looked good enough yet this season for me to lay points with them on the road when favored. Boise State comes into this game averaging a whopping 42.9 points per game this season (27.5 on the road) and they have done that by also averaging 494.4 total yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play in those games. Fresno State's defense is young and lacks experience with only 4 returning starters but they have done a decent job in this conference and allowed 24.7 points per game on 393.7 total yards of offenser per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Ian Johnson (3rd Team All-American in 2006) is out for this game with some kind of kidney problem and I don't think it should impact the way you cap this game. Sure he is a great running back but his backup RB Jeremy Avery has been just as good if not better averaging 6.4 yards per carry with four rushing touchdowns on the season. Boise State is going to have success running the ball in this one no matter what because Fresno has too many second level problems (LB corps is weak) and they have allowed 199.0 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry this season. In the air, QB Taylor Tharp has played well completing 65.3% of his passes this season for 1858 passing yards, 8.5 yards per pass attempt, 18 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Despite allowing a lot on the ground, Fresno State has been good against the pass as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete only 52.1% of their passes this season for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt which means they keep things short and force small yardage plays...something Boise State does not like to do. The Bulldogs have a pretty good pass rush but the Broncos offensive line is pretty damn good and getting to Tharp in this one might not be easy. Somehow the Bulldogs have only one interception this season but that could change tonight as Tharp has thrown 8 interceptions in 8 career games for the Broncos (one in his 13 pass attempts in 2006 and the other 7 this year). The key to the Fresno State defense holding ground when it matters most in this one is the amount of fumbles they have forced. In seven games this season, Fresno State has forced 14 fumbles (recovered six of them) while Boise State has had problems holding on to the ball and have fumbled 11 times (lost 4 of them) on the season. Boise State will score some points with an effective running attack but in the end it won't be enough to match what Fresno State can do in a shootout on home turf. Anywhere else I would be on Boise State but not in Bulldog stadium.
The Fresno State Bulldogs are not even close to being out of the WAC Conference Title run despite having two losses on the season. I know they have to play in Hawaii and I know the spread is going to be ridiculous for that game (I really like Fresno if it climbs higher than 10) but the Bulldogs have a fighting chance and their season is on the line tonight. They cannot afford to lose anymore games because of their losses to Oregon on the road and Texas A&M on the road. You have to also consider that the returning 11 starters on this team (ya its a low number but Boise State is in the same hole) remember going down 35-0 last year on the smurf turf before somewhat rallying and making it a 45-21 final. That was a bad loss for this team but now they get the chance to avenge it at home where Bulldog Stadium is the reason I bet on the Bulldogs. Ever since the two losses and the BYE WEEK, Fresno has looked like a team on a mission as they beat Louisiana Tech at home, went on the road and beat both Nevada and Idaho by a combined 21 points and then came home last week and dropped a bomb on San Jose State with a 30-0 Homecoming win. So it's been a huge stretch of games for this team and they are 3-0 ATS in their last three games. This is the big one for this team and you can fully expect one of the best coaches in this conference, Pat Hill to have his guys ready to roll. The Bulldogs come into this game averaging 31.9 points per game this season and they have done that on 391.0 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. Boise State does not have the kind of defense that they had last year as they returned only six starters this season and have allowed 22.7 points per game and 322.3 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play. On the ground, Fresno State loves to run just as much as Boise State does and they are just as good at hit averaging 204.4 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. They have scored 20 rushing touchdowns (4 different players with 2 or more) this season and Boise State has only been so-so against the run this season, allowing 134.4 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry. In the air, the Bulldogs have a good one in QB Tom Brandstater who has completed 60.2% of his passes this season for 1248 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Boise State has been very good against the pass allowing 50.2% of passes to be completed against them this season for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt but that's a bit different away from the blue turf as they have allowed road opponents to complete 55.9% of their passes for a whopping 6.8 yards per pass attempt in two games away from home this season. Although Fresno runs in most of their touchdowns, Brandstater does not throw a lot of interceptions (compared to last year's 14 in 10 starts) and has thrown only three this season which is good against a Boise State defense that has 8 interceptions this season. Fresno State's biggest problem this season has been fumbles as they have fumbled the ball 13 times and lost 11 of those fumbles. However, let it be known that Boise State's defense is not all that aggressive and they don't have knack for forcing fumbles having forced only 7 all season and recovered only 5 of those fumbles. Fresno State will score some points in this game but it's their defense that will come up with big plays late to win this football game. Expect this to come down to the end.
Boise State is definitely the best team in the WAC Conference so far this season but this is the one conference where home field advantage means so much to the top three teams (Hawaii, Boise State and Fresno State) because they are so close in talent. Right now Boise State is my #50 team in the Country with Hawaii two spots back and Fresno State not far behind the two. Despite lacking the same reputation as the Broncos (probably why the public is on Boise State), Fresno State has faced a TOP 25 opponent in Oregon and Boise State has not. I think you also have to look at discipline in a game like this where big play matter and I say that because Boise State is averaging 7.1 penalties per game this season for 65.6 penalty yards per game while Fresno State has been a bit more disciplined and averaged 6.1 penalties per game for only 50.9 penalty yards per game this season. Boise takes 8.5 penalties per road game, Fresno State only 5.3 per home game. Trust me that could make a huge difference in the outcome of tonight's game. This is a very close game to call and it's a real handicappers challenge to see if you can get it right. I strongly believe I am on the right side and home field advantage is what made the difference for me. There is no blue turf this time around and the Bulldogs are looking for revenge.
Trend of the Game: Boise State is 1-6 ATS as an away favorite with Chris Petersen as head coach.
Fresno State 39, Boise State 27
Weekly Recap
Boston College +3 ***ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Air Force +5.5
Fresno State +3
GOOD LUCK TO ALL! I will be releasing my play for Saturday sometime after tonight's game.
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 50-45-2 (-25.10 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
This Week: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football threads for the 2007-2008 season. Not the kind of start I was looking for but after observing and watching things play out this past weekend, I think it helped a lot of grow as cappers and Im a big believer in the 'watch and learn' type of theory. The rule changes didn't make much of a difference, well not yet anyways and every single week that goes by brings a new lesson in the world of college football betting. Best of luck to all this week!
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Friday, October 26
Fresno State Bulldogs +3 (5 Units)
The Boise State Broncos are most certainly not having the same kind of season as they were having last year and despite sitting at 6-1 straight up on the season, don't look like they are going to come anywhere near the BCS standings this time around. This is only Boise State's third away game of the season and they haven't exactly looked sharp in either one of their road games. In their road opener they were favored against Washington and lost 24-10 (doesn't look so good anymore does it? The Huskies are terrible) and in their second road game last week they looked sluggish and had problems beating Louisiana Tech. I don't know if you guys know this but Boise State went 1-4 ATS as a road favorite last season and are now 0-2 ATS in that spot this year so what makes anybody like them here is beyond me. You have to understand that when a team has so much of a home advantage like Boise State does with their blue colored smurf turf, they tend to get away from the basics of football when playing on the road. Boise State have really dominated this series the last five or six years but they lost by 20 in their last visit to Fresno and they haven't looked good enough yet this season for me to lay points with them on the road when favored. Boise State comes into this game averaging a whopping 42.9 points per game this season (27.5 on the road) and they have done that by also averaging 494.4 total yards of offense and 6.4 yards per play in those games. Fresno State's defense is young and lacks experience with only 4 returning starters but they have done a decent job in this conference and allowed 24.7 points per game on 393.7 total yards of offenser per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, RB Ian Johnson (3rd Team All-American in 2006) is out for this game with some kind of kidney problem and I don't think it should impact the way you cap this game. Sure he is a great running back but his backup RB Jeremy Avery has been just as good if not better averaging 6.4 yards per carry with four rushing touchdowns on the season. Boise State is going to have success running the ball in this one no matter what because Fresno has too many second level problems (LB corps is weak) and they have allowed 199.0 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry this season. In the air, QB Taylor Tharp has played well completing 65.3% of his passes this season for 1858 passing yards, 8.5 yards per pass attempt, 18 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Despite allowing a lot on the ground, Fresno State has been good against the pass as they have allowed opposing QB's to complete only 52.1% of their passes this season for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt which means they keep things short and force small yardage plays...something Boise State does not like to do. The Bulldogs have a pretty good pass rush but the Broncos offensive line is pretty damn good and getting to Tharp in this one might not be easy. Somehow the Bulldogs have only one interception this season but that could change tonight as Tharp has thrown 8 interceptions in 8 career games for the Broncos (one in his 13 pass attempts in 2006 and the other 7 this year). The key to the Fresno State defense holding ground when it matters most in this one is the amount of fumbles they have forced. In seven games this season, Fresno State has forced 14 fumbles (recovered six of them) while Boise State has had problems holding on to the ball and have fumbled 11 times (lost 4 of them) on the season. Boise State will score some points with an effective running attack but in the end it won't be enough to match what Fresno State can do in a shootout on home turf. Anywhere else I would be on Boise State but not in Bulldog stadium.
The Fresno State Bulldogs are not even close to being out of the WAC Conference Title run despite having two losses on the season. I know they have to play in Hawaii and I know the spread is going to be ridiculous for that game (I really like Fresno if it climbs higher than 10) but the Bulldogs have a fighting chance and their season is on the line tonight. They cannot afford to lose anymore games because of their losses to Oregon on the road and Texas A&M on the road. You have to also consider that the returning 11 starters on this team (ya its a low number but Boise State is in the same hole) remember going down 35-0 last year on the smurf turf before somewhat rallying and making it a 45-21 final. That was a bad loss for this team but now they get the chance to avenge it at home where Bulldog Stadium is the reason I bet on the Bulldogs. Ever since the two losses and the BYE WEEK, Fresno has looked like a team on a mission as they beat Louisiana Tech at home, went on the road and beat both Nevada and Idaho by a combined 21 points and then came home last week and dropped a bomb on San Jose State with a 30-0 Homecoming win. So it's been a huge stretch of games for this team and they are 3-0 ATS in their last three games. This is the big one for this team and you can fully expect one of the best coaches in this conference, Pat Hill to have his guys ready to roll. The Bulldogs come into this game averaging 31.9 points per game this season and they have done that on 391.0 total yards of offense and 5.7 yards per play. Boise State does not have the kind of defense that they had last year as they returned only six starters this season and have allowed 22.7 points per game and 322.3 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play. On the ground, Fresno State loves to run just as much as Boise State does and they are just as good at hit averaging 204.4 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. They have scored 20 rushing touchdowns (4 different players with 2 or more) this season and Boise State has only been so-so against the run this season, allowing 134.4 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry. In the air, the Bulldogs have a good one in QB Tom Brandstater who has completed 60.2% of his passes this season for 1248 passing yards, 7.1 yards per pass attempt, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Boise State has been very good against the pass allowing 50.2% of passes to be completed against them this season for only 5.7 yards per pass attempt but that's a bit different away from the blue turf as they have allowed road opponents to complete 55.9% of their passes for a whopping 6.8 yards per pass attempt in two games away from home this season. Although Fresno runs in most of their touchdowns, Brandstater does not throw a lot of interceptions (compared to last year's 14 in 10 starts) and has thrown only three this season which is good against a Boise State defense that has 8 interceptions this season. Fresno State's biggest problem this season has been fumbles as they have fumbled the ball 13 times and lost 11 of those fumbles. However, let it be known that Boise State's defense is not all that aggressive and they don't have knack for forcing fumbles having forced only 7 all season and recovered only 5 of those fumbles. Fresno State will score some points in this game but it's their defense that will come up with big plays late to win this football game. Expect this to come down to the end.
Boise State is definitely the best team in the WAC Conference so far this season but this is the one conference where home field advantage means so much to the top three teams (Hawaii, Boise State and Fresno State) because they are so close in talent. Right now Boise State is my #50 team in the Country with Hawaii two spots back and Fresno State not far behind the two. Despite lacking the same reputation as the Broncos (probably why the public is on Boise State), Fresno State has faced a TOP 25 opponent in Oregon and Boise State has not. I think you also have to look at discipline in a game like this where big play matter and I say that because Boise State is averaging 7.1 penalties per game this season for 65.6 penalty yards per game while Fresno State has been a bit more disciplined and averaged 6.1 penalties per game for only 50.9 penalty yards per game this season. Boise takes 8.5 penalties per road game, Fresno State only 5.3 per home game. Trust me that could make a huge difference in the outcome of tonight's game. This is a very close game to call and it's a real handicappers challenge to see if you can get it right. I strongly believe I am on the right side and home field advantage is what made the difference for me. There is no blue turf this time around and the Bulldogs are looking for revenge.
Trend of the Game: Boise State is 1-6 ATS as an away favorite with Chris Petersen as head coach.
Fresno State 39, Boise State 27
Weekly Recap
Boston College +3 ***ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Air Force +5.5
Fresno State +3
GOOD LUCK TO ALL! I will be releasing my play for Saturday sometime after tonight's game.
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