MistaFlava's CFB 90% ATS Formula ***WEDNESDAY Selection*** (Writeup and Analysis)


90% ATS System/Formula (Last Week)

Week 5

Wisconsin -11 WON
Missouri -14 WON
Bowling Green +6.5 WON
Idaho -3 WON
Clemson -30.5 WON
UAB -5.5 WON
North Texas -3.5 LOSS
Michigan -10 WON
New Mexico State +17.5 WON

Week 6

Marshall -3 PENDING


Last week was a disaster for me and my picks. However, I did come up with a brand new system/formula. I was studying common trends between all ATS winner last week and in prior weeks and found a combination of intangibles that would have resulted in a 9-1 ATS Week. It combined yards per pass attempt and yards per pass attempt allowed but also included 2-3 other variables. I am solely going to be using those system picks this and see how things go both in College and NFL. Good Luck to all!

2006 CFB Record: 29-26-2 (+1.10 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 19-19-2 ATS (-1.10)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-7 (+2.20 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 1-2 (-6.00 units)


Marshall Thundering Herd -3 (2 Units)

The UCF Golden Knights have never been one of my favorite teams to bet on the ATS level and that hasn't changed coming into this game. We all witnessed the Golden Knights pathetic loss at home to Southern Miss last week and I personally got screwed on the OVER. This is a team that several well respected experts were calling for to reach the CUSA Title Game at the end of the year but a 1-3 start to the season pretty has those dreams dashed for George O'Leary and his crew. I mean they still have to play against Pittsburgh, Houston, Rice, East Carolina and I would be shocked if they came out of those games with more than two wins. There is no doubt that with 17 returning starters this is a very experienced UCF team but they experience has been overshadowed by underachievement and unless things took a turn for the better in the last 8 days, don't expect to see a better UCF team on the field tonight. The loss to Southern Miss pretty much did this team in and team morale can't be very high right now. UCF went on the road once this year and they got spanked by Florida to the tune of 42-0 in Week 2 of the season. You can't say this team is coming off a BYE week because they aren't as they played last Tuesday and have been off for the usual 7-8 days between games. I know O'Leary was working on new things in practice this week but he didn't sound confident in his guys tonight and that usually carries around when it comes to team attitude. The Golden Knights are averaging only 10.3 points per game in their last three games and have done on only 279.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.0 yards per play. Now many have called Marshall's defense a swiss cheese type of defense because of all the holes but don't forget that Marshall is coming off a BYE week and they have worked had to improve on the 29.0 points per game they have allowed in their last three games on 351.0 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play over that same period of games. As beatable as Marshall is through the air, they have one of the best LB units in the CUSA. On the ground, UCF is averaging 98.3 rushing yards per game on a measly 3.0 yards per carry over their last three games. That's a big problem tonight because when UCF can't establish a running game, they don't do much through the air. If anything, Marshall have been good at stopping the run, allowing only 90.0 rushing yards per game on 3.9 yards per carry over their last three games which leads me to believe that their secondary is going to have some success tonight. In the air, QB Steven Moffett has looked pretty damn bad this year, completing only 52.0% of his passes for five touchdowns and three interceptions. Over his last three games, he is completing 48.6% of his passes, is averaging only 4.9 yards per pass attempt and has thrown one interception per game. Marshall's weak secondary is going to be well rested and very ready for Moffett. Over their last three games they have been a lot better than I thought, allowing opposing QB's to complete only 56.3% of their passes and sacking opposing QB's 2.7 times per game. What people always seem to forget about Marshall is that their defense is good and their DC Jim Collins is very underrated. The knock on the defense is their youth, but they have done a decent job so far and with so much time to prepare, should be ready for this game. The UCF offense is too ineffective this year and I don't see how they can walk into Huntington and change things around that quickly. UCF might have some success throwing the ball but it won't be enough as Marshall is going to match every score and do a little more themselves.

The Marshall Thundering Herd opened at -3.5 and had been at -3.5 until yesterday. To be honest with you guys, I would have still bet on Marshall without buying the hook because I don't see them winning this game by only four points. We are talking about a team that is only 13-15-2 ATS as a home favorite over the last seven seasons but we are also talking about a team that is coached by Mark Snyder, a Mark Snyder that has finally had an off-season with young team unlike last season when they brought him in very late to coach these guys. Anyways, Marshall are coming off a BYE week and that is a huge advantage in college football because practice time and video tape room time is precious for students and the Thundering Herd have had about 10 more sessions together to prepare for this game than UCF have had. Okay, Marshall is 1-3 on the season but did anyone really expect anything else? Everyone keeps talking about how their only big win this season came against Hofstra at home by a margin of 54-31 but what did everyone expect seeing that they had to play against West Virginia, Tennessee and Kansas State? Lets get real people. They lost to three good teams while UCF lost to Florida, USF and Southern Miss. If you combine all three and the fact that Marshall lost all three of those on the road, there is a huge difference between the two teams. The Marshall offense has been pretty quiet apart from the Hofstra game but expect an explosion of points tonight as they are finally unleashed. The Thundering Herd come into this game averaging 22.7 points per game in their last three games and they have done so on 299.0 total yards of offense per game and 4.9 yards per play. Not too bad for having played against Tennessee and Kansas State during that span. UCF's defense is horrendous. They have one of the worst D-Lines in the CUSA and one of the weakest Linebacking crews. They are allowing 28.3 points per game over their last three games and over those three games, have allowed a whopping 447.7 total yards of offense on 6.6 yards per play (ouch that's tough). On the ground, RB Ahmad Bradshaw has been all that the coaching staff expected him to be this season, averaging 5.1 yards per carry with four touchdowns and and 349 total yards. As a team, the Thundering Herd are rushing for 163.0 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry over their last three games and that includes their QB who has rushed for over 200 yards on the season. UCF is allowing 131.0 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry over their last three games and Bradshaw is going to give them problems all night with his game breaking speeding and spectacular dump pass receiving ability. Marshall's QB is Bernard Morris who has played quite well despite tough opponents and is completing 61.5% of his passes this season but has thrown for only three touchdowns. Morris is a decent scrambler/runner and often likes to run for the first down himself. In the air, he is completing 65.3% of his passes over the last three games and he has done so passing for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt. However, UCF's secondary has been getting torched and seeing that Marshall have had tons of time to study this UCF defense, they should come out guns blazing in this one. UCF have allowed their last three opponent QB's to completed 61.4% of their passes for a whopping 9.4 yards per pass attempt which tells me they are going to get destroyed through the air. The key in this game for Marshall is going to be to avoid the costly turnovers that haunted them the last three games (about 3 fumbles per game) and make sure their offense gets in a groove early against a bad UCF defense. This is a revenge game for Marshall because they went to UCF last season and lost 23-13 but won the three meetings prior to that game. Morris and Bradshaw should both have success in this game while some of the younger players should also have breakout games in what looks to me like a big Marshall win.

Trend of the Game: Marshall are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Wednesday games.

Marshall 24, UCF 16

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I really like them at 3, but if Im gonna lay it on em big I may get the line to 2.

Do you think the line will move more towards even as game time gets closer?

My only concern is the loss last year.
I dont see this line dropping anymore than it has already and the loss last year only enhances my liking for Marshall.

GL Ricky.
In absolute agreement with Mistaflava here. I know that last yeras game can be a concern but 2005 was UCF's season. They came out of nowhere to play in the title game and a Bowl. This year they had 'expectations' and seem to not be getting any breaks. I do believe in 2005 due to there youth they overacheived and this season we will look back and say they underacheived.

Last year UCF did win but remember this was as 3pt home dogs that clearly tells us Marshall was the BETTER TEAM...just not on that day. GL all
I disagree SN...it was UCF's first conf home game of the year....you can't judge a team's season's worth on one line in late September...this line was based on expectation, not that Marshall was the better team last year...

But of course the same premise can be made this year...neither one of these teams are supposed to have winning records yet...hence the 3 pt line for home field...

They'll determine who's going to be better in conference starting tonight...and UCF will have to play better than last week if it's to be them...but I think the upside certainly lays w/ the Knights.
I agree with that Jump especially since UCF was winless I believe in 2004. Its not entirely based on that never is...its just a starting point or reference point. Alot of things can cause line adjustments...heck look at the Marshall number at home vs UCF in 2004. Marshall hasnt had the offense to win on the road for years now but generally dont get blown out cause they play sound football. More weight is given to the fact this UCF team is being pegged as a home dog to young teams. Two teams with young QB's gett pegged as road chalk. UCF from what I saw has talent but IMO seems poor fundamentally. UCF has declined considerably IMO from 2005 in regard to level of team play. There OL wasnt impressive and there team couldnt tackle and had mental lapses....on the road where they have to win I just dont like it..

I can see that....they are really missing the WR they lost last year who had 1100 yds receiving and 11 TD's seemed to me...they also really can
't protect the QB...they have their entire OL back from a young unit last year, but haven't showed improvement really...

Both of these teams have potential, UCF a little more than Marshall w/ a marginal talent increase IMO....
Would def agree with that...seems they have just 1 option in the passing game now. Probably part of the reason why Moffeet was 36 of 75 past 2.That RB..Kenny Smith I believe really pissed me off last week. Remember he fumbled and the ESPN crew made it sound like they had to force him back in the game.....thats clearly lack of heart . He didnt seem to run as hard after that fumble. You wonder if early success ruined them mentally...like they expect to just show up and win.
Good discussion guys...good luck tonight. I would love to comment but I'm already tailgaiting for the Leafs opener tonight!