MistaFlava
Cheerleader
MistaFlava's 2007 CFB Record: 64-69-5 (-401.00 Units)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 62-67-4 (-395.10 Units)<o></o>
MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)<o></o>
MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
This Week: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football thread. This has been by far my worst regular season in CFB which probably means I am heading for a GREAT BOWL SEASON. However, I am going to keep at it for the time being and hope to finish the last few weeks strong. I have confidence in my capping and my abilities to turn things around for the season. My goal now is to make it back to +0.00 Units for the season. You can get if you want but nobody asked you to follow. Good Luck!<o></o>
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The Central Michigan Chippewas sure as heck didn't look like they would end up in the MAC Conference Championship game after the first month of the season as they went 1-3 in their first four games of the season losing to Kansas, Purdue and North Dakota State (I-AA). So you mean to tell me that they turned things around the rest of the season, beat six different teams and now find themselves once again playing for the Conference Title? Impressive to say the least for head coach Butch Jones who's job security was already being discussed after the loss to ND State. So the Chippewas won the West Division and finished with a 7-5 straight up record on the year as they also went 5-4-2 ATS in those games and made some people cash by finishing the season 4-2-2 ATS in their last six games. Central Michigan did not come anywhere close to matching the 10 wins they had last season but they did prove themselves as the year went on. We all know how much Central Michigan can control shootouts and how much they can score at will in most games but this is the best defense they have faced since Clemson, a game where they managed to score only 14 points. The Chippewas come into this game averaging 38.0 points per game in their last three games of the season and they did that by also averaging a whopping 500.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play in those games. Miami Ohio's defense has been solid all season and is definitely the best in the MAC Conference as they have allowed only 22.0 points per game in their last three games and have allowed only 275.0 total yards of offense per game and 3.7 yards per play in those games which is outstanding for this Conference. On the ground, Central Michigan has on a tear as of late as they average 212.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have done that on an incredible 5.9 yards per carry. I truly believe that the success of their offense revolves around their ability to run the ball which is why I think they are going to struggle a bit more than usual in this one as Miami Ohio has allowed only 94.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on only 2.8 yards per carry. That is some tight ass run defense. In the air, QB Dan LeFevour has been great this season but in his last three games he has completed 63.6% of his passes for 6.7 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions which is just so-so. Miami Ohio's pass defense has also been outstanding and the last three QB's they have faced have completed only 55.7% of their passes for only 4.6 yards per pass attempt which should containt LeFevour once he decides to throw the ball. The Redhawks have a pretty good pass rush that has 8 sacks in the last three games and if they can get enough penetration on the offensive line of Central Michigan, I expect LeFevour to keep making mistakes in the air like he has done over the last three games. This is an aggressive defense that has forced 3 fumbles and recovered all 3 fumbles in their last three games so the Chippewas (who have fumbled 5 times in their last three games) have something to worry about here. Central Michigan has shown a great lack of discipline the last three games of the seaosn by taking 21 penalties for 65.3 penalty yards per game and if they start doing stuff like that today, they are in some big trouble. The Chippewas are going to score a ton of points but it won't be enough and a few key turnovers will ruin their noon time affaire.
The Miami Ohio Redhawks are an unusual pick (none of the experts had them in the MAC Championship Game prior to the season) to come out of the East Division and play in this game but they got the job done this season, finished tied with Bowling Green for the Division lead and earned this berth by beating that Bowling Green team earlier in the year. Much like the Chippewas, things got off to a rocky start for the Redhawks this season as they opened things up with a 1-3 straight up record losing to Cincinnati, Colorado and Minnesota but they have since recovered nicely and shown the rest of the Conference that they can certainly win and compete. Miami Ohio was pegged as one of the most improved teams in the Country prior to the season by Phil Steele and we will probably see them in a Bowl Game for the first time since the 1994 season when they went to the Independence Bowl. Miami Ohio went 6-6 straight up and ATS this season but they did play well away from home beating both Ball State and Kent State and losing a close one to Vanderbilt late in the season. I know it's tough to bet on a team that went 0-3 ATS to finish off the year but this is Championship Game and Shane Montgomery is a better coach than Butch Jones which is something you have to take into consideration. The Redhawks come into this game today averaging only 22.3 points per game in their last three games of the season but they still managed a very respectable 391.3 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play in those games. Central Michigan's defense has been playing a lot better lately but still allow 37.0 points per game in their last three games and have also allowed 394.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the RedHawks have a decent rushing attack that is averaging 159.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.1 yards per pass carry. In order to win this game, RB Cory Jones has to rush for 100+ yards against this Chippewas defense that has allowed 144.7 rushing yards per game on only 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games played this season. I also want to mention that RB Brandon Murphy is once again going to play after missing all season with an injury. He is averaging 5.9 yards per carry in the three games he has played. That is going to put a bit more emphasis on QB Daniel Raudabaugh who did not start the year as QB1 but who came in for the injured Mike Kokal. Raudabaugh has completed 54.2% of his passes this season for 2177 passing yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Despite the somewhat weak numbers, Raudabaugh has the strongest arm on this team and he is capable of dropping bombs on this Chippewas defense that has allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete 68.5% of their passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt and I have a feeling Raudabaugh is going to have a breakout game in this one. WR Dustin Woods is a big time deep threat and if Raudabaugh can find him in the open, Woods is going to take a few to the house with his speed. Central Michigan has a decent pass rush that has 6 sacks in their last three games but Miami Ohio has not allowed a single sack in their last three games and they are going to give their QB's plenty of time to find open receivers. Now I know Raudabaugh throws a lot of interceptions but he is going to have to be patient and will have his chances to shred this secondary apart if only he is smart with the football. Central Michigan has recovered only one fumble as a team the last three games and they have not been aggressive enough defensively to really pose a threat in this somewhat mediocre Miami Ohio offense. I know they haven't put up big numbers more than a few times this season but the Redhawks offense is well built to face the Chippewas and like I said before, I think some of these guys are really going to step it up and win this Championship Game for the underdogs.
The battle is on and although the points look like an easy taken for Central Michigan, don't count out the Miami Ohio Redhawks just yet because they are not in this game for no reason. Defense wins championships (well in most Conferences) and the Chippewas certainly don't have any defense to speak of. These two schools rarely play against each other despite playing in the same Conference as they have met only once since 1999 and that was for a 38-37 win by Central Michigan in the season opener for both teams. I would like to point out to everyone that doesn't already know...Miami Ohio has the best defense (by far) in the MAC Conference and that could be a problem for the Chippewas. What's funny and what makes this game so interesting is that we have the Conference's best offense versus the Conference's best defense. This game is being played in Detroit's Ford Field and although that somewhat gives the Chippewas an edge because it is in-State for them, I don't see Miami Ohio being intimidated by the atmosphere. My X-Factor in this game is RB Bradon Murphy and I say that because this kid can flat out run, he has missed his entire Senior season because of an injury and now he is back with a chance to win the one thing he has been after his entire career at Miami Ohio. The MAC Conference Championship is Miami Ohio's and they win this in a shootout city baby.
Trend of the Game: Miami Ohio is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
Miami Ohio 56, Central Michigan 42
The Tulsa Golden Hurrican don't know how they did it or how they got here but they did it and they got here and now their one and only goal is to win this game. This is a team with a bunch of Senior stars on it and winnning the CONFERENCE USA Champinship Game is probably the only way they want to go out. Even without the services of one of the best RB's in this Conference Courtenay Tennial this season, this team managed to go 9-3 straight up on the season but for those of you who didn't know, they were only 4-8 ATS in those games and that should be a big concern for those betting on them. However, the Golden Hurrican are probably the hottest team in the CUSA Conference right now as they have won five straight games to finish the season but like I was talking before, they were only 2-3 ATS in those games and should have won some games by a lot more than they did. As a matter of fact, Tulsa's last loss this season was in this very stadium to this very UCF team as they went down 44-23 as +2.5 road underdogs. Tulsa is 4-2 straight up on the road this season but they were only 2-4 ATS in those games and I don't know that I could trust them with my money knowing they beat a pathetic Army team by only 10 points a few weeks ago on the road and lost to both UCF and UTEP on the road. The Golden Hurricane come into this game averaging a whopping 41.8 points per road game this season and they have done that by also averaging 560.7 total yards of offense on the road and 6.9 yards per play in those games. Very impressive. However, Central Florida's defense is pretty good and they have allowed only 21.7 points per game at home this season and in those games have allowed only 356.8 total yards of offense against on 5.0 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Tulsa has managed with Tennial all season and they have still rushed for 190.5 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry away from home. RB Tarrion Adams has led the way but he is going up against a Central Florida defense that has allowed only 115.7 rushing yards per home game this season and in those games has allowed only 3.7 yards per carry. Without a decent rushing attack, Tulsa is probably going to find themselves a bit lost and too much will be left up to QB Paul Smith, who is the #1 QB in this Conference by a mile. Smith comes into this game having completed 62.4% of his passes this season away from home and those passes have gone for 9.4 yards per pass attempt (he loves throwing the unsuspecting home run ball here and there). Central Florida's secondary however has already seen Paul Smith once this season and they have allowed opposing visiting QB's to complete only 56.2% of their passes this season for only 6.0 yards per pass attempt which will help cutdown on Smith's ability to creat long passing plays. The Knights pass rush is as good as it gets at home as they recorded 18 sacks in six home games this season and the added pressure on Smith can only make him react faster and shorter which is a good thing. Smith has thrown an unsual 16 interceptions on the season (he threw only 9 all of last season) and he needs to be careful because the Knights have 10 interceptions at home this season and with all the pass rush success they have had, Smith is going to have be ready to move around. I don't see how Tulsa can really change anything from their last game here in October and I say that because their defense keeps the offense off the field for long periods of time and the Golden Hurrican find themselves playing from behind in almost all their games. I think Tulsa is going to struggle big time and will probably be held to their lowest point total of the season.
The Central Florida Knights have everything going for them right now and the only way they can lose this game today is if they come here having lost focus on the end goal of winning the Conference USA Championship on their own home turf. They have to forget about the last time they whoopped Tulsa's ass because if anythign the Golden Hurricane are going to come in here motivated to win and get some revenge. It has to be nice to play for the Conference Championship at home because the Knights are going to have 45 000+ in attendance for this and there is no doubt in my mind that the stadium is going to be as loud as it ever has been. This new stadium is on-campus and you couldn't ask for more than that when it comes to having the best possible atmosphere for this afternoon's game. The Knights are 9-3 straight up on the season and that is quite the accomplishment for a team that went 4-8 last season and 0-11 just a few seasons ago back in 2004. They are a very respectable 7-5 ATS in their games this season, are 5-1 straight up at home and home is where they love to play as they are 4-2 ATS in this stadium. So the stage is set and the Knights do not want a repeat of the 2005 CUSA Conference Title Game where they got blown out at home to Paul Smith and these Golden Hurricane. Central Florida comes into this game averaging 42.0 points per game at home this season and they have done that by averaging 466.3 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play in those games. Even better for UCF is the fact that Tulsa is horrendous on defense and they have allowed 36.0 points per road game this season and in those games have allowed 482.2 total yards of offense per game on a crazy 6.0 yards per play. On the ground, RB Kevin Smith has rushed for a ridiculous 2164 yards this season and 5.8 yards per carry with 25 rushing touchdowns and he should have no problems demolishing this Tulsa defense that has allowed 182.7 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.3 yards per carry. Smith's running ability is going to soften up the secondary like it did in the first meeting and QB Kyle Isreal can shred this secondary apart. Isreal has completed 62.0% of his passes at home this season for a whopping 8.5 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown only 3 interceptions at home all season and has been sacked only 4 times in six games. Tulsa's secondary has been torn to bits on the road this season as opposing QB's have completed 62.8% of their passes against themf or a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt and the big plays should be there all day for Central Florida if they want them. The Golden Hurricane just don't have a defense that makes enough plays to win this game as they have only 3 interceptions all season on the road and have recovered only 3 fumbles all season in six away games. That's just not good enough to win. Despite fumbling 13 times in six home games this season, Central Florida is probably going to run the ball a lot in this one, controlling the clock and avoiding a possible explosion by the Tulsa offense. Seeing how Tulsa has been playing so well, I expect the Knights to slow down the pace of this game, score some points of their own early in this one and then just shut things down and win this by a comfortable margin. I have no problems backing this team to win by more than a touchdown against this atrocious road defense of Tulsa's.
This is a case where you have to put everything down on the table, try and make some sense of the hard facts and come up with a big winner for this game. What I see is a Central Florida team that is very quickly rising to the top ranks of this Conference and what I see is a Central Florida team that has an opportunity to win the CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP in their brand new Bright House Networks Stadium. Not only that, they already have the confidence coming into this game knowing that they have slapped around this Tulsa team in this very place back on October 20 and I don't see why or how things could be much different this time around. This is also ironically a re-match from the 2005 Conference USA Championship Game where Tulsa beatup on the Knights 44-27. I have talked about it time and time again, more often that not, the team with the better defense in a Conference Championship Game is going to win and cover the game and there is no doubt who has the better defense coming into this game. No doubt whatsoever. The game won't be as high scoring as most of you thin because George O'Leary doesn't want to wakeup this Tulsa offense so expect a lot of running, clock wasting and all that good stuff from the Knights in this game...CUSA Conference Champs.
Trend of the Game: Tulsa is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Central Florida 28, Tulsa 10
The Virginia Tech Hokies lost only two games this season and let me tell you right now that they can only remember one of those games. The first was a blowout loss to LSU early on in the season and they had no problems bouncing back from that loss. However, the loss they clearly remember is loss against this very Boston College team as they had 10-0 lead pretty much the entire game at home until Boston College somehow scored two touchdowns in the final 2:11 of the game and beat the Hokies to stay perfect on the season. That was one of the most shocking outcomes I have witnessed in a very long time to be honest with you. The Hokies are playing with purpose and with heavy hearts this season and that has most definitely helped them recover from losses and play some good football. The Hokies went 4-1 straight up on the road this season and were an equally impressive 4-1 ATS in those games with their lone loss coming against LSU. Other than that they beat Clemson by 18, the beat Duke by 29, the beat Georgia Tech by 24 and just last week they managed to beat Virginia by 12 points...all of those games on the road and away from home. Virginia Tech comes into this game averaging a whopping 39.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games they have managed to average 394.7 total yards of offense per game on 5.5 yards per play which is impressive for a team that was once considered offensively challenged this season. Boston College has allowed 24.3 points per game in their last three games of the season and in those games they have allowed 344.3 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play which is a bit high for them. The Hokies have really focused on running the ball the last three games as they average 47.7 carries per game for 167.0 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. Now I know Boston College has allowed only 88.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 2.4 yards per carry but RB Brandon Ore has really picked up the pace in his last five games and I think he is going to have a big game this afternoon. In the air, the Hokies are once again turning the the born-again decent player QB Sean Glennon who has completed 62.2% of his passes this season for 1462 passing yards, 8.1 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. Glennon is going up against a Boston College defense that has allowed their last three QB opponents to complete 64.5% of their passes for a whopping 7.0 yards per pass attempt and I think the Eagles are in trouble. I say that because the top three receivers on this Hokies team are Justin Harper, Eddie Royal and Josh Morgan and all three are deep threats and all three are Seniors playing for one last title. The protection has been a bit iffy the last three games as the Hokies have allowed 6 sacks in those games but Glennon has not thrown any interceptions in his last three games and he has looked much better since getting the bulk of the playing time. If you are going to win big games like this, your defense better be making some big plays and making plays this Eagles defense is not. They have forced 0 fumbles in their last three games, they have intercepted only 2 passes and are up against a Hokies team that has lost only one fumble in their last three games. I think Sean Glennon and Brandon Ore are both going to lead the way in this game with big performances against a Boston College defense that has overachieved for the most part of this season. With so many Seniors on offense, you can't help but think that this is going to be one of their best performances in a long time and I really like the Hokies to play a strong second half and seal the deal (and cover) with some late touchdown scores. I know most of you think Boston College is too good to allow more than 30 points but the bottom line is that they have allowed some big plays lately and the Hokies have been all about big plays in their last three games showing some real signs of life on offense. Beamer Ball it is and ACC Championship it is.
The Boston College Eagles were a big time cash cow for me most of the early season but after getting luck on their miracle win and cover against these same Virginia Tech Hokies, I vowed to stay away from them the remainder of the season and that turned out to be pretty smart as they finished off the year 1-3 ATS failing to cover the spread against Florida State, Maryland and Miami this past week. So was the loss to Florida State on November 3rd the end of a very impressive run by the Eagles or was it just a small blunder combined with another blunder the following week against Maryland? It's hard to tell at this point but one thing I do know is that this team does not come into this game playing good football at all. When you take into consideration the fact that they probably shoulda lost that game against Virginia Tech and the fact that they did lose to both Florida State and Maryland the following two weeks and the fact that the beat the Hurricanes by only 14 last week, I think it's safe to say that the Eagles are back from Cloud Nine and playing the way we all thought they would play before this season started. You have a rookie head coach with some experienced players who went 3-2 ATS away from home this season but the magnitude of this game is so big that I would never fancy backing a rookie head coach in such circumstances. The Eagles come into this game averaging 27.7 points per game in their last three games this season and in those games they managed to average 440.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games. Virginia Tech however is playing some of the best defense they have played all season as they have allowed only 18.7 points per game in their last three games and in those games have allowed only 240.3 total yards of offense on 3.8 yards per play which is as impressive as it gets. On the ground, Boston College is having all sorts of problems running the ball as they have rushed for only 72.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and they are going up against a Hokies defensive front that has allowed only 70.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games for only 2.3 yards per carry. Huge trouble for the Eagles is all I have to say about that. However, they do have one of the best QB's in the Nation in Matt Ryan so you can never count them out because he is the only reason Boston College beat Virginia Tech in the first place. Ryan has completed 61.6% of his passes the last three games for 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions which is good but he needs to be better to have a shot in this game. However, Virginia Tech's secondary has been outstanding the last three games as they have allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete only 52.6% of their passes for only 5.3 yards per pass attempt. The Eagles offensive line has been brutal and Matt Ryan has been sacked 9 times in his last three games which means we will probably see a lot of blitzing from Bud Foster in this game in an attempt to throw Ryan off and keep him off rythm. The Hokies have 4 interceptions in their last three games and as I mentioned before, Ryan has been making a lot of mistakes the last three games. The Hokies are playmakers on defense and playmaking defenses win championships. They have forced 6 fumbles the last three games and recovered 4 of them and if they can keep creating turnovers, winning this game by 7 or more is very likely. Although I think Boston College has the potential of being blownout in this game, I think they find a way to keep it close for one reason and one reason only...Matt Ryan. He is that good that he can keep his team in this game even though the Hokies are probably going to pullout all stops. In the end though, Ryan won't have the heroics of that rainy Thursday in October and there ain't gonna be any of that magic in the Jacksonville air.
There is no other way to go. The line is a bit fishy I think because Boston College already proved once this season that they can do whatever it takes to beat this Virginia Tech team yet they are the underdogs on a neutral field and they are absolutely inviting the late public money for bettors to jump on. DESTINY...that is the word everyone has to remember when betting on this game. Don't forget that unless you like an underdog to win a game straight up, there is no point taking the points and betting on them hoping they lose by a certain amount. I talk about destiny because we all know that the Hokies season is dedicated to the victims of last April's massacre on the Virginia Tech campus and things have been going too well for this team to lose now. There are a ton of Seniors heading for the NFL on this team and they know what it takes to win big games like this one. A spot in the Orange Bowl is more likely than not on the line in this one and as much as Matt Ryan would love to end his career on a BCS Bowl note, there are just too many Senior leaders on the Virginia Tech offense and defense that are not about to let this happen. I trust Frank Beamer and Bud Foster and I trust that the Hokies win and cover this game as ACC Conference Champions.
Trend of the Game: Virginia Tech is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 ACC Conference games.
Virginia Tech 31, Boston College 24
The Tennessee Volunteers showed the world what they were made of last week and that led them straight to the SEC Championship Game. You know things didn't look good for the Vols when they opened the season in Berkeley and got blown out of California by 14 points as seven point underdogs. Things looked even worse a couple of weeks later when the Vols went back on the road and got blown out in the Swamp by a score of 59-20. So how is it possible that a team who started off the season 1-2 straight up having allowed a combined 123 points in their first three games, somehow end up playing for the SEC Title in Atlanta, Georgia? Well for starters their season took a turn for the good after their late September BYE WEEK as some players got healthy and the team got a 35-14 home win over the Georgia Bulldogs. Since that BYE WEEK, the Volunteers have gone 7-1 straight up and 6-2 ATS in those games. Anyone who saw this team's resiliance in their MUST-WIN victory over Kentucky last week knows that this is a team that fights to the very end and a team that is not about to accept their role as 7.5 point underdogs in this game. You don't just beat Georgia, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Kentucky to show up in Atlanta and look like you don't have a clue what happened. The Volunteers come into this game averaging 37.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games the Vols have also averaged 383.0 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play which is good and but could be better. LSU's defense has really baffled many people over the course of the last month and if you don't believe me that they have sucked, look no further than the 28.0 points per game they have allowed in their last three games and the 411.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play they have allowed in those games. That most certainly does not sound like a team that should be playing for the BCS Championship at the end of the season. On the ground, the Vols have not really had much success running the ball as they average only 126.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 3.5 yards per carry in those games RB Arian Foster better be ready to make some noise in this game because as we saw last week, LSU's run defense has problems and they have allowed 217.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on a whopping 5.6 yards per carry which means Foster could have a huge day in this one. In the air, QB Erik Ainge is playing some outstanding football these days as he has completed 61.1% of his passes the last three games for 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 257.0 passing yards per game, 12 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions (all against Kentucky). The Tigers have allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete only 49.0% of their passes for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Ainge has one of the best offensive lines protecting him as he has not been sacked once in the last three games and he should have all the time in the world to operate in this game. What I find even more impressive about this offense is that the Vols have lost only 1 fumble the last three games while fumbling only 2 times. LSU's defense has not had success on the pass rush like they did earlier this season and they have only 3 sacks in their last three games but have managed to intercept 5 passes in those games and force 7 fumbles (5 of them recovered by the team). The key for the Volunteers in this game is to continue winning the turnover battles and holding onto the ball on offense. I think the Vols can run Arian Foster a lot early in this game and setting up some play action and some big plays downfield. However, if the passing game is not working like they would want it to, Phillip Fulmer can continue pounding away with his 1000+ yard rusher and this could very well be Erik Ainge's official coming out party, despite this being his second to last game of college football. I don't think the Vols have to score 30 points to win this game, I just think they need to be effective on offense and create turnovers of their own to win this football game.
The LSU Tigers have pissed me off more than once this season and there is no way I am backing a team and I can't and have not trusted all season. The Tigers had everything going their way heading into last week's home game against Darren McFadden and the Arkansas Razorbacks but that automatic BCS Title Game bid went down the toilet with their loss in triple overtime and the pressure is back on these guys big time to win this game. If they lose this game, they can forget about the National Title game and they can start thinking about what the hell is going to happen next season. I think that's exactly what happens in this game. LSU has been playing with fire for a long time now. They barely beat Florida 28-24 earlier this season, they lost against Kentucky, they barely beat Auburn 30-24 the following week, they had problems against Alabama in their 31-24 road win and most recently they lost last week to Arkansas. Yes this is a 10-2 team and yes most people are saying that they are the best team in the Nation but betting wise they are 5-7 ATS on the season and only 2-3 ATS away from home. I am very concerned about their road games versus Alabama and Kentucky because the Volunteers are better than both those teams and they could give LSU just as many problems. The Tigers come into this game averaging a whopping 49.0 points per game in their last three games this season and they have done that by averaging 468.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play in those games. However, Tennessee's defense has played a lot better than they have gotten credit for lately as they have allowed 29.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games have allowed 374.0 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play which is pretty damn good considering how wild this conference has been all season. On the ground, LSU has completely dominated their opponents the last three games averaging 251.0 rushing yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry but they might run into some problems in this game as Tennessee has been very stiff against the run and the Vols have allowed only 130.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 3.1 yards per carry and a battle tested 41.7 run attempts per game. That could force LSU to pass a lot more than they planned in this game and who knows if that is going to workout with QB Matt Flynn being hurt and QB Ryan Perilloux being the possible starter. Either way, the LSU QB's have completed only 53.9% of their passes the last three games for only 6.4 yards per pass attempt and that can't be good news against this Tennessee defense that has allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete only 58.1% of their passes for only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. LSU's offensive line has allowed 6 sacks in the last three games and although the Volunteers have not shown much of a pass rush in their last three games, they do have 5 interceptions and they do have some guys who can make big plays. The problem I have with the LSU offense in this game is that in recent weeks, they have rellied way too heavily on their running game averaging 42.7 carries per game and that is something that is probably not going to work at all against the Volunteers defense. The quarterback situation is in a cloud of haze right now and I don't know that this is good heading into a game like this. LSU is not the kind of team that is going to lose because they turn the ball over but I think the Tigers are going to make some mistakes in this game and I think they are going to get caught sleeping after their loss to Arkansas last week. This is by no means an easy win for this team because they are back away from home where they have sucked all season against better teams and they are up against a Tennessee team that is out to prove something.
Call me crazy or call me an idiot with my predicted scoreline. The bottom line is that I like the way Tennessee matches up with the Tigers in this game and I have seen LSU play with fire one too many times this season to know better than to bet on them at this kind of number. The Tigers defense has been M.I.A. for about a month now and I refuse to bet on a team that cannot keep opponents to under 20 points on a consistant basis (LSU has allowed 20+ points in 5 of their last 6 games). This is an interesting matchup however because it pits two of the most overrated coaches in this Conference, it pits the #1 and #2 rated offensive lines, it pits two of the best LB corps in this Conference and we get to see the most underrated QB in the SEC (Erik Ainge) play one more in-conference game before the end of his career. I don't know what the hell is going on at LSU but there has been all that talk about Les Miles moving to Michigan (talking anyways), the Tigers don't have a clue who their QB1 is tomorrow and the list goes on. I don't know how good your memories are but Tennessee beat LSU on the road in 2005 and the Volunteers lost to LSU by 4 points in their home meeting with them in 2006. So since almost every game in the SEC (big games that is) have come down to overtime or game winning field goals this season, I am calling for this game to be a bit more out of hand and I am calling for the Volunteers to shock the Nation, mess up the BCS and beat the crap out of the LSU Tigers. Tennessee are the new SEC Champions.
Trend of the Game: LSU is 1-6 ATS in their last seven SEC Conference games.
Tennessee 28, LSU 14
The Oklahoma Sooners think they are the best team in this Country, they know they are the best team in this Country and they have a one time chance of showing everyone that they ARE the best team in this Country. Well that's how it works right? You beat the #1 team in the Country and you should become the best team. Well not exactly but seeing how Oklahoma was being talked about for the BCS Championship Game all season long until their second loss of the season a few weeks ago against Texas Tech, it's only fitting that the Sooners earn that spot if they prove themselves and win. Oklahoma is and has been a powerhouse team all season long whether you like to believe it or not and again I would like to mention that their two losses were complete flukes and that on both occasions the Sooners were the better team but for some reason they fell asleep at the wheel (late in the Colorado loss and early in the Texas Tech loss). Other than those two losses, unlike LSU, the Sooners proved themselves by winning games big and in convincing fashion. Yes both losses came on the road and yes the Sooners are 1-4 ATS away from home this season but this is a team they have already beat and this is another chance for Oklahoma to sneak into that BCS Title Game with or without some controvery. The Sooners come into this game averaging 43.8 points per game this season (good for #3 in the Nation) and they have done that by averaging 458.4 total yards of offense per game on 6.6 yards per play in those games. Missouri's defense plain and simply cannot handle that kind of offense. The Tigers have allowed 23.4 points per game this season and in those games they have allowed 380.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, losing RB DeMarco Murray for the season was and is a big blow to this team, however RB Allen Patrick is just as good and has just as much of a devastating impact on other teams. The Sooners have rushed for 194.8 rushing yards per game this season on 4.8 yards per carry in those games and they should have no problems once again running all over a Missouri defense that has been solid and allowed only 114.7 rushing yards per game this season on 3.6 yards per carry. The run game is only going to set things up for the air attack of QB Sam Bradford who has completed 70.2% of his passes this season for 2670 passing yards, 9.5 yards per pass attempt, 32 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. And why is he not being talked about for the Heisman? He is up against a Missouri defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 61.9% of their passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt which could help contain some Oklahoma big yardage plays but it is doubtful that the Tigers can hold Oklahoma to under 40 points. The Tigers rely heavily on their pass rush abilities which will be useless in this game because the Sooners O-Line has allowed less than one sack per game this season and Bradford has been comfortable all season. Much like the Tigers, Oklahoma has been successful because they have turned the ball over less than twice per game this season and they are one of the best disciplined teams in this Conference. Missouri has looked half decent on defense all season but I just can't trust them in a big game like this. With so much on the line I think the Sooners are going to pullout all the stops on both sides of the ball and once they go up early, they won't look back and will get stronger as the game moves along. You can argue all you want that missing DeMarco Murray is a big deal but he carried the ball only 4 times in the first meeting so he is a non-factor. Oklahoma is too good, too strong and they are not losing this game. Not here, not now. PLAY OF THE YEAR!
The Missouri Tigers know what they are in for in this BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP game because they were leading Oklahoma heading into the 4th quarter in the first meeting but it didn't take long for things to drastically change and before they knew it, the Tigers were down 41-24 with not much time left to play in the game. Like I mentioned a few times already, I was on Missouri in the first meeting because the spread was right and because the situation was a bit different. I am well aware that the Tigers were in that game for the most part and that the outcome could have been totally different but I am also aware that Oklahoma is a very good team and Missouri now has all the pressure in the world on their shoulders as the #1 ranked team in the Nation. Yes the win over Kansas last weekend was very impressive but I have Kansas down as a bit of a 'Pretender' team while the Sooners are the real deal. Missouri is 6-0 straight up since their loss to Oklahoma and they are 4-2 ATS in those games. Looking back at some of the games the 11-1 Tigers played on the road, it is clear that this team will probably outyard every opponent they face and it is clear that despite being 3-1 straight up away from home, the one and only time the Tigers were tested on the road was their loss to these Sooners. Beating Mississippi and Colorado on the road doesn't mean too much to me. The Tigers come into this game tonight averaging 41.9 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 506.9 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play in those games. Impressive stuff for sure. However, Oklahoma's defense is pretty damn good and they have allowed only 18.3 points per game this season and allowed 324.6 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play in those games. Bear in mind that the Sooners have allowed 21 or less points in 8 games this season and that is pretty damn good. On the ground, RBs Tony Temple and Jeremy Macclin were held to 54 yards rushing combined in the first meeting and there is no reason to believe that will change seeing how the Tigers average 170.1 rushing yards per game this season on 4.5 yards per carry. However, they have to once again face this Sooners defense that has allowed only 91.4 rushing yards per game this season on 2.8 yards per carry and neither RB will do better than last time. In the air, QB Chase Daniel is damn good and he has completed 70.5% of his passes this season for 3951 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 33 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. Oklahoma's pass defense has only allowed a lot of yardage because teams always play from behind against them as opponents have completed 60.8% of their passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt against them this season. Despite playing so well this season, Daniel could be in trouble in this game (3 interceptions in the first meeting) as the Sooners bring a lot of pressure packages and the Sooners force a lot of mistakes (from opposing QBs). The Sooners have 28 sacks on the season while Daniel has been sacked 16 times in 12 games so the smart to do for Oklahoma is going to be come at Daniel with even more pressure than the last time to keep him off balance and keep him uncomfortable. We already know the Tigers running game won't work so why let them pass? It is going to be very interesting to see what Missouri can do differently than the first meeting here. I actually thought they played way above thier heads in that game but still came up short. The Tigers have won me some cash this season but it's time to let them go and it's time to watch them lose to the team I believe should be playing for the National Title come next month.
FOOLS FOOLS FOOLS! All of you betting on Missouri because of what they did against Kansas last week are complete fools. Oklahoma is hands down and by far the best team in the BIG 12 this season and this is coming from someone who bet on Missouri +13.5 the first time these two teams met this season. Yes I was on the Tigers because the spread was way too high, the Sooners were at home and the circumstance was different. So can you please explain to me once again how the Sooners went from -13.5 to -3 in a matter of a month a half despite beating these Tigers by 10 points in the first meeting? What the hell has Missouri done since that game (they beat some mediocre in-conference opponents) to earn such respect? I cannot believe that more than 50% of wagerliners are on Missouri in this game because that makes them blind sheeps to the fact that absolutely nothing has really changed from the last time these two teams met. Did you all forget that this is Bob Stoops (82% career win percentage) versus Gary Pinkel (62% career win percentage) and that there is no really comparing the two when it comes to guys who know how to win? I will be brutally honest. If the season ended before today, I would pick Oklahoma and Florida as the two best teams and have them play for the National Title. However that is not the case and the only way the Sooners can get into that Title game is by winning this one big and with a bit of luck from oh say Tennessee or something. Oklahoma wins this baby large.
Trend of the Game: Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in their last five December games.
Oklahoma 45, Missouri 27
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND THANKS FOR ALL THE WELL WISHES THIS SEASON! I APOLOGIZE TO THOSE WHO TAILED ME THIS YEAR, I WAS SIDE-TRACKED WAY TOO MANY TIMES AND HAD MY WORSE YEAR EVER IN CFB! SEE YOU ALL IN THE BOWL SEASON!
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fficeffice" /><o></o>MistaFlava's 2007 ATS Record: 62-67-4 (-395.10 Units)<o
></o>MistaFlava's 2007 O/U Record: 0-1 (-5.50 Units)<o
></o>MistaFlava's 2007 2nd Half Record: 2-2-1 (-0.40 Units)
This Week: 2-0 ATS (+35.00 Units)
Welcome to my College Football thread. This has been by far my worst regular season in CFB which probably means I am heading for a GREAT BOWL SEASON. However, I am going to keep at it for the time being and hope to finish the last few weeks strong. I have confidence in my capping and my abilities to turn things around for the season. My goal now is to make it back to +0.00 Units for the season. You can get if you want but nobody asked you to follow. Good Luck!<o
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Saturday, December 1
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP
Miami Ohio Redhawks +3 (25 Units)
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP
The Central Michigan Chippewas sure as heck didn't look like they would end up in the MAC Conference Championship game after the first month of the season as they went 1-3 in their first four games of the season losing to Kansas, Purdue and North Dakota State (I-AA). So you mean to tell me that they turned things around the rest of the season, beat six different teams and now find themselves once again playing for the Conference Title? Impressive to say the least for head coach Butch Jones who's job security was already being discussed after the loss to ND State. So the Chippewas won the West Division and finished with a 7-5 straight up record on the year as they also went 5-4-2 ATS in those games and made some people cash by finishing the season 4-2-2 ATS in their last six games. Central Michigan did not come anywhere close to matching the 10 wins they had last season but they did prove themselves as the year went on. We all know how much Central Michigan can control shootouts and how much they can score at will in most games but this is the best defense they have faced since Clemson, a game where they managed to score only 14 points. The Chippewas come into this game averaging 38.0 points per game in their last three games of the season and they did that by also averaging a whopping 500.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play in those games. Miami Ohio's defense has been solid all season and is definitely the best in the MAC Conference as they have allowed only 22.0 points per game in their last three games and have allowed only 275.0 total yards of offense per game and 3.7 yards per play in those games which is outstanding for this Conference. On the ground, Central Michigan has on a tear as of late as they average 212.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and have done that on an incredible 5.9 yards per carry. I truly believe that the success of their offense revolves around their ability to run the ball which is why I think they are going to struggle a bit more than usual in this one as Miami Ohio has allowed only 94.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on only 2.8 yards per carry. That is some tight ass run defense. In the air, QB Dan LeFevour has been great this season but in his last three games he has completed 63.6% of his passes for 6.7 yards per pass attempt, 4 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions which is just so-so. Miami Ohio's pass defense has also been outstanding and the last three QB's they have faced have completed only 55.7% of their passes for only 4.6 yards per pass attempt which should containt LeFevour once he decides to throw the ball. The Redhawks have a pretty good pass rush that has 8 sacks in the last three games and if they can get enough penetration on the offensive line of Central Michigan, I expect LeFevour to keep making mistakes in the air like he has done over the last three games. This is an aggressive defense that has forced 3 fumbles and recovered all 3 fumbles in their last three games so the Chippewas (who have fumbled 5 times in their last three games) have something to worry about here. Central Michigan has shown a great lack of discipline the last three games of the seaosn by taking 21 penalties for 65.3 penalty yards per game and if they start doing stuff like that today, they are in some big trouble. The Chippewas are going to score a ton of points but it won't be enough and a few key turnovers will ruin their noon time affaire.
The Miami Ohio Redhawks are an unusual pick (none of the experts had them in the MAC Championship Game prior to the season) to come out of the East Division and play in this game but they got the job done this season, finished tied with Bowling Green for the Division lead and earned this berth by beating that Bowling Green team earlier in the year. Much like the Chippewas, things got off to a rocky start for the Redhawks this season as they opened things up with a 1-3 straight up record losing to Cincinnati, Colorado and Minnesota but they have since recovered nicely and shown the rest of the Conference that they can certainly win and compete. Miami Ohio was pegged as one of the most improved teams in the Country prior to the season by Phil Steele and we will probably see them in a Bowl Game for the first time since the 1994 season when they went to the Independence Bowl. Miami Ohio went 6-6 straight up and ATS this season but they did play well away from home beating both Ball State and Kent State and losing a close one to Vanderbilt late in the season. I know it's tough to bet on a team that went 0-3 ATS to finish off the year but this is Championship Game and Shane Montgomery is a better coach than Butch Jones which is something you have to take into consideration. The Redhawks come into this game today averaging only 22.3 points per game in their last three games of the season but they still managed a very respectable 391.3 total yards of offense and 5.4 yards per play in those games. Central Michigan's defense has been playing a lot better lately but still allow 37.0 points per game in their last three games and have also allowed 394.0 total yards of offense per game and 5.2 yards per play in those games. On the ground, the RedHawks have a decent rushing attack that is averaging 159.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 4.1 yards per pass carry. In order to win this game, RB Cory Jones has to rush for 100+ yards against this Chippewas defense that has allowed 144.7 rushing yards per game on only 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games played this season. I also want to mention that RB Brandon Murphy is once again going to play after missing all season with an injury. He is averaging 5.9 yards per carry in the three games he has played. That is going to put a bit more emphasis on QB Daniel Raudabaugh who did not start the year as QB1 but who came in for the injured Mike Kokal. Raudabaugh has completed 54.2% of his passes this season for 2177 passing yards, 6.6 yards per pass attempt, 11 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Despite the somewhat weak numbers, Raudabaugh has the strongest arm on this team and he is capable of dropping bombs on this Chippewas defense that has allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete 68.5% of their passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt and I have a feeling Raudabaugh is going to have a breakout game in this one. WR Dustin Woods is a big time deep threat and if Raudabaugh can find him in the open, Woods is going to take a few to the house with his speed. Central Michigan has a decent pass rush that has 6 sacks in their last three games but Miami Ohio has not allowed a single sack in their last three games and they are going to give their QB's plenty of time to find open receivers. Now I know Raudabaugh throws a lot of interceptions but he is going to have to be patient and will have his chances to shred this secondary apart if only he is smart with the football. Central Michigan has recovered only one fumble as a team the last three games and they have not been aggressive enough defensively to really pose a threat in this somewhat mediocre Miami Ohio offense. I know they haven't put up big numbers more than a few times this season but the Redhawks offense is well built to face the Chippewas and like I said before, I think some of these guys are really going to step it up and win this Championship Game for the underdogs.
The battle is on and although the points look like an easy taken for Central Michigan, don't count out the Miami Ohio Redhawks just yet because they are not in this game for no reason. Defense wins championships (well in most Conferences) and the Chippewas certainly don't have any defense to speak of. These two schools rarely play against each other despite playing in the same Conference as they have met only once since 1999 and that was for a 38-37 win by Central Michigan in the season opener for both teams. I would like to point out to everyone that doesn't already know...Miami Ohio has the best defense (by far) in the MAC Conference and that could be a problem for the Chippewas. What's funny and what makes this game so interesting is that we have the Conference's best offense versus the Conference's best defense. This game is being played in Detroit's Ford Field and although that somewhat gives the Chippewas an edge because it is in-State for them, I don't see Miami Ohio being intimidated by the atmosphere. My X-Factor in this game is RB Bradon Murphy and I say that because this kid can flat out run, he has missed his entire Senior season because of an injury and now he is back with a chance to win the one thing he has been after his entire career at Miami Ohio. The MAC Conference Championship is Miami Ohio's and they win this in a shootout city baby.
Trend of the Game: Miami Ohio is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
Miami Ohio 56, Central Michigan 42
CUSA CHAMPIONSHIP
Central Florida Knights -7.5 (10 Units)
The Tulsa Golden Hurrican don't know how they did it or how they got here but they did it and they got here and now their one and only goal is to win this game. This is a team with a bunch of Senior stars on it and winnning the CONFERENCE USA Champinship Game is probably the only way they want to go out. Even without the services of one of the best RB's in this Conference Courtenay Tennial this season, this team managed to go 9-3 straight up on the season but for those of you who didn't know, they were only 4-8 ATS in those games and that should be a big concern for those betting on them. However, the Golden Hurrican are probably the hottest team in the CUSA Conference right now as they have won five straight games to finish the season but like I was talking before, they were only 2-3 ATS in those games and should have won some games by a lot more than they did. As a matter of fact, Tulsa's last loss this season was in this very stadium to this very UCF team as they went down 44-23 as +2.5 road underdogs. Tulsa is 4-2 straight up on the road this season but they were only 2-4 ATS in those games and I don't know that I could trust them with my money knowing they beat a pathetic Army team by only 10 points a few weeks ago on the road and lost to both UCF and UTEP on the road. The Golden Hurricane come into this game averaging a whopping 41.8 points per road game this season and they have done that by also averaging 560.7 total yards of offense on the road and 6.9 yards per play in those games. Very impressive. However, Central Florida's defense is pretty good and they have allowed only 21.7 points per game at home this season and in those games have allowed only 356.8 total yards of offense against on 5.0 yards per play in those games. On the ground, Tulsa has managed with Tennial all season and they have still rushed for 190.5 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry away from home. RB Tarrion Adams has led the way but he is going up against a Central Florida defense that has allowed only 115.7 rushing yards per home game this season and in those games has allowed only 3.7 yards per carry. Without a decent rushing attack, Tulsa is probably going to find themselves a bit lost and too much will be left up to QB Paul Smith, who is the #1 QB in this Conference by a mile. Smith comes into this game having completed 62.4% of his passes this season away from home and those passes have gone for 9.4 yards per pass attempt (he loves throwing the unsuspecting home run ball here and there). Central Florida's secondary however has already seen Paul Smith once this season and they have allowed opposing visiting QB's to complete only 56.2% of their passes this season for only 6.0 yards per pass attempt which will help cutdown on Smith's ability to creat long passing plays. The Knights pass rush is as good as it gets at home as they recorded 18 sacks in six home games this season and the added pressure on Smith can only make him react faster and shorter which is a good thing. Smith has thrown an unsual 16 interceptions on the season (he threw only 9 all of last season) and he needs to be careful because the Knights have 10 interceptions at home this season and with all the pass rush success they have had, Smith is going to have be ready to move around. I don't see how Tulsa can really change anything from their last game here in October and I say that because their defense keeps the offense off the field for long periods of time and the Golden Hurrican find themselves playing from behind in almost all their games. I think Tulsa is going to struggle big time and will probably be held to their lowest point total of the season.
The Central Florida Knights have everything going for them right now and the only way they can lose this game today is if they come here having lost focus on the end goal of winning the Conference USA Championship on their own home turf. They have to forget about the last time they whoopped Tulsa's ass because if anythign the Golden Hurricane are going to come in here motivated to win and get some revenge. It has to be nice to play for the Conference Championship at home because the Knights are going to have 45 000+ in attendance for this and there is no doubt in my mind that the stadium is going to be as loud as it ever has been. This new stadium is on-campus and you couldn't ask for more than that when it comes to having the best possible atmosphere for this afternoon's game. The Knights are 9-3 straight up on the season and that is quite the accomplishment for a team that went 4-8 last season and 0-11 just a few seasons ago back in 2004. They are a very respectable 7-5 ATS in their games this season, are 5-1 straight up at home and home is where they love to play as they are 4-2 ATS in this stadium. So the stage is set and the Knights do not want a repeat of the 2005 CUSA Conference Title Game where they got blown out at home to Paul Smith and these Golden Hurricane. Central Florida comes into this game averaging 42.0 points per game at home this season and they have done that by averaging 466.3 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play in those games. Even better for UCF is the fact that Tulsa is horrendous on defense and they have allowed 36.0 points per road game this season and in those games have allowed 482.2 total yards of offense per game on a crazy 6.0 yards per play. On the ground, RB Kevin Smith has rushed for a ridiculous 2164 yards this season and 5.8 yards per carry with 25 rushing touchdowns and he should have no problems demolishing this Tulsa defense that has allowed 182.7 rushing yards per road game this season on 4.3 yards per carry. Smith's running ability is going to soften up the secondary like it did in the first meeting and QB Kyle Isreal can shred this secondary apart. Isreal has completed 62.0% of his passes at home this season for a whopping 8.5 yards per pass attempt. He has thrown only 3 interceptions at home all season and has been sacked only 4 times in six games. Tulsa's secondary has been torn to bits on the road this season as opposing QB's have completed 62.8% of their passes against themf or a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt and the big plays should be there all day for Central Florida if they want them. The Golden Hurricane just don't have a defense that makes enough plays to win this game as they have only 3 interceptions all season on the road and have recovered only 3 fumbles all season in six away games. That's just not good enough to win. Despite fumbling 13 times in six home games this season, Central Florida is probably going to run the ball a lot in this one, controlling the clock and avoiding a possible explosion by the Tulsa offense. Seeing how Tulsa has been playing so well, I expect the Knights to slow down the pace of this game, score some points of their own early in this one and then just shut things down and win this by a comfortable margin. I have no problems backing this team to win by more than a touchdown against this atrocious road defense of Tulsa's.
This is a case where you have to put everything down on the table, try and make some sense of the hard facts and come up with a big winner for this game. What I see is a Central Florida team that is very quickly rising to the top ranks of this Conference and what I see is a Central Florida team that has an opportunity to win the CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP in their brand new Bright House Networks Stadium. Not only that, they already have the confidence coming into this game knowing that they have slapped around this Tulsa team in this very place back on October 20 and I don't see why or how things could be much different this time around. This is also ironically a re-match from the 2005 Conference USA Championship Game where Tulsa beatup on the Knights 44-27. I have talked about it time and time again, more often that not, the team with the better defense in a Conference Championship Game is going to win and cover the game and there is no doubt who has the better defense coming into this game. No doubt whatsoever. The game won't be as high scoring as most of you thin because George O'Leary doesn't want to wakeup this Tulsa offense so expect a lot of running, clock wasting and all that good stuff from the Knights in this game...CUSA Conference Champs.
Trend of the Game: Tulsa is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Central Florida 28, Tulsa 10
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP
Virginia Tech Hokies -4.5 (10 Units)
The Virginia Tech Hokies lost only two games this season and let me tell you right now that they can only remember one of those games. The first was a blowout loss to LSU early on in the season and they had no problems bouncing back from that loss. However, the loss they clearly remember is loss against this very Boston College team as they had 10-0 lead pretty much the entire game at home until Boston College somehow scored two touchdowns in the final 2:11 of the game and beat the Hokies to stay perfect on the season. That was one of the most shocking outcomes I have witnessed in a very long time to be honest with you. The Hokies are playing with purpose and with heavy hearts this season and that has most definitely helped them recover from losses and play some good football. The Hokies went 4-1 straight up on the road this season and were an equally impressive 4-1 ATS in those games with their lone loss coming against LSU. Other than that they beat Clemson by 18, the beat Duke by 29, the beat Georgia Tech by 24 and just last week they managed to beat Virginia by 12 points...all of those games on the road and away from home. Virginia Tech comes into this game averaging a whopping 39.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games they have managed to average 394.7 total yards of offense per game on 5.5 yards per play which is impressive for a team that was once considered offensively challenged this season. Boston College has allowed 24.3 points per game in their last three games of the season and in those games they have allowed 344.3 total yards of offense and 4.7 yards per play which is a bit high for them. The Hokies have really focused on running the ball the last three games as they average 47.7 carries per game for 167.0 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. Now I know Boston College has allowed only 88.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games for 2.4 yards per carry but RB Brandon Ore has really picked up the pace in his last five games and I think he is going to have a big game this afternoon. In the air, the Hokies are once again turning the the born-again decent player QB Sean Glennon who has completed 62.2% of his passes this season for 1462 passing yards, 8.1 yards per pass attempt, 8 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. Glennon is going up against a Boston College defense that has allowed their last three QB opponents to complete 64.5% of their passes for a whopping 7.0 yards per pass attempt and I think the Eagles are in trouble. I say that because the top three receivers on this Hokies team are Justin Harper, Eddie Royal and Josh Morgan and all three are deep threats and all three are Seniors playing for one last title. The protection has been a bit iffy the last three games as the Hokies have allowed 6 sacks in those games but Glennon has not thrown any interceptions in his last three games and he has looked much better since getting the bulk of the playing time. If you are going to win big games like this, your defense better be making some big plays and making plays this Eagles defense is not. They have forced 0 fumbles in their last three games, they have intercepted only 2 passes and are up against a Hokies team that has lost only one fumble in their last three games. I think Sean Glennon and Brandon Ore are both going to lead the way in this game with big performances against a Boston College defense that has overachieved for the most part of this season. With so many Seniors on offense, you can't help but think that this is going to be one of their best performances in a long time and I really like the Hokies to play a strong second half and seal the deal (and cover) with some late touchdown scores. I know most of you think Boston College is too good to allow more than 30 points but the bottom line is that they have allowed some big plays lately and the Hokies have been all about big plays in their last three games showing some real signs of life on offense. Beamer Ball it is and ACC Championship it is.
The Boston College Eagles were a big time cash cow for me most of the early season but after getting luck on their miracle win and cover against these same Virginia Tech Hokies, I vowed to stay away from them the remainder of the season and that turned out to be pretty smart as they finished off the year 1-3 ATS failing to cover the spread against Florida State, Maryland and Miami this past week. So was the loss to Florida State on November 3rd the end of a very impressive run by the Eagles or was it just a small blunder combined with another blunder the following week against Maryland? It's hard to tell at this point but one thing I do know is that this team does not come into this game playing good football at all. When you take into consideration the fact that they probably shoulda lost that game against Virginia Tech and the fact that they did lose to both Florida State and Maryland the following two weeks and the fact that the beat the Hurricanes by only 14 last week, I think it's safe to say that the Eagles are back from Cloud Nine and playing the way we all thought they would play before this season started. You have a rookie head coach with some experienced players who went 3-2 ATS away from home this season but the magnitude of this game is so big that I would never fancy backing a rookie head coach in such circumstances. The Eagles come into this game averaging 27.7 points per game in their last three games this season and in those games they managed to average 440.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play in those games. Virginia Tech however is playing some of the best defense they have played all season as they have allowed only 18.7 points per game in their last three games and in those games have allowed only 240.3 total yards of offense on 3.8 yards per play which is as impressive as it gets. On the ground, Boston College is having all sorts of problems running the ball as they have rushed for only 72.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games and they are going up against a Hokies defensive front that has allowed only 70.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games for only 2.3 yards per carry. Huge trouble for the Eagles is all I have to say about that. However, they do have one of the best QB's in the Nation in Matt Ryan so you can never count them out because he is the only reason Boston College beat Virginia Tech in the first place. Ryan has completed 61.6% of his passes the last three games for 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 7 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions which is good but he needs to be better to have a shot in this game. However, Virginia Tech's secondary has been outstanding the last three games as they have allowed their last three opposing QB's to complete only 52.6% of their passes for only 5.3 yards per pass attempt. The Eagles offensive line has been brutal and Matt Ryan has been sacked 9 times in his last three games which means we will probably see a lot of blitzing from Bud Foster in this game in an attempt to throw Ryan off and keep him off rythm. The Hokies have 4 interceptions in their last three games and as I mentioned before, Ryan has been making a lot of mistakes the last three games. The Hokies are playmakers on defense and playmaking defenses win championships. They have forced 6 fumbles the last three games and recovered 4 of them and if they can keep creating turnovers, winning this game by 7 or more is very likely. Although I think Boston College has the potential of being blownout in this game, I think they find a way to keep it close for one reason and one reason only...Matt Ryan. He is that good that he can keep his team in this game even though the Hokies are probably going to pullout all stops. In the end though, Ryan won't have the heroics of that rainy Thursday in October and there ain't gonna be any of that magic in the Jacksonville air.
There is no other way to go. The line is a bit fishy I think because Boston College already proved once this season that they can do whatever it takes to beat this Virginia Tech team yet they are the underdogs on a neutral field and they are absolutely inviting the late public money for bettors to jump on. DESTINY...that is the word everyone has to remember when betting on this game. Don't forget that unless you like an underdog to win a game straight up, there is no point taking the points and betting on them hoping they lose by a certain amount. I talk about destiny because we all know that the Hokies season is dedicated to the victims of last April's massacre on the Virginia Tech campus and things have been going too well for this team to lose now. There are a ton of Seniors heading for the NFL on this team and they know what it takes to win big games like this one. A spot in the Orange Bowl is more likely than not on the line in this one and as much as Matt Ryan would love to end his career on a BCS Bowl note, there are just too many Senior leaders on the Virginia Tech offense and defense that are not about to let this happen. I trust Frank Beamer and Bud Foster and I trust that the Hokies win and cover this game as ACC Conference Champions.
Trend of the Game: Virginia Tech is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 ACC Conference games.
Virginia Tech 31, Boston College 24
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP
Tennessee Volunteers +7.5 (25 Units)
The Tennessee Volunteers showed the world what they were made of last week and that led them straight to the SEC Championship Game. You know things didn't look good for the Vols when they opened the season in Berkeley and got blown out of California by 14 points as seven point underdogs. Things looked even worse a couple of weeks later when the Vols went back on the road and got blown out in the Swamp by a score of 59-20. So how is it possible that a team who started off the season 1-2 straight up having allowed a combined 123 points in their first three games, somehow end up playing for the SEC Title in Atlanta, Georgia? Well for starters their season took a turn for the good after their late September BYE WEEK as some players got healthy and the team got a 35-14 home win over the Georgia Bulldogs. Since that BYE WEEK, the Volunteers have gone 7-1 straight up and 6-2 ATS in those games. Anyone who saw this team's resiliance in their MUST-WIN victory over Kentucky last week knows that this is a team that fights to the very end and a team that is not about to accept their role as 7.5 point underdogs in this game. You don't just beat Georgia, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Kentucky to show up in Atlanta and look like you don't have a clue what happened. The Volunteers come into this game averaging 37.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games the Vols have also averaged 383.0 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play which is good and but could be better. LSU's defense has really baffled many people over the course of the last month and if you don't believe me that they have sucked, look no further than the 28.0 points per game they have allowed in their last three games and the 411.7 total yards of offense per game and 5.7 yards per play they have allowed in those games. That most certainly does not sound like a team that should be playing for the BCS Championship at the end of the season. On the ground, the Vols have not really had much success running the ball as they average only 126.0 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 3.5 yards per carry in those games RB Arian Foster better be ready to make some noise in this game because as we saw last week, LSU's run defense has problems and they have allowed 217.7 rushing yards per game in their last three games on a whopping 5.6 yards per carry which means Foster could have a huge day in this one. In the air, QB Erik Ainge is playing some outstanding football these days as he has completed 61.1% of his passes the last three games for 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 257.0 passing yards per game, 12 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions (all against Kentucky). The Tigers have allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete only 49.0% of their passes for only 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Ainge has one of the best offensive lines protecting him as he has not been sacked once in the last three games and he should have all the time in the world to operate in this game. What I find even more impressive about this offense is that the Vols have lost only 1 fumble the last three games while fumbling only 2 times. LSU's defense has not had success on the pass rush like they did earlier this season and they have only 3 sacks in their last three games but have managed to intercept 5 passes in those games and force 7 fumbles (5 of them recovered by the team). The key for the Volunteers in this game is to continue winning the turnover battles and holding onto the ball on offense. I think the Vols can run Arian Foster a lot early in this game and setting up some play action and some big plays downfield. However, if the passing game is not working like they would want it to, Phillip Fulmer can continue pounding away with his 1000+ yard rusher and this could very well be Erik Ainge's official coming out party, despite this being his second to last game of college football. I don't think the Vols have to score 30 points to win this game, I just think they need to be effective on offense and create turnovers of their own to win this football game.
The LSU Tigers have pissed me off more than once this season and there is no way I am backing a team and I can't and have not trusted all season. The Tigers had everything going their way heading into last week's home game against Darren McFadden and the Arkansas Razorbacks but that automatic BCS Title Game bid went down the toilet with their loss in triple overtime and the pressure is back on these guys big time to win this game. If they lose this game, they can forget about the National Title game and they can start thinking about what the hell is going to happen next season. I think that's exactly what happens in this game. LSU has been playing with fire for a long time now. They barely beat Florida 28-24 earlier this season, they lost against Kentucky, they barely beat Auburn 30-24 the following week, they had problems against Alabama in their 31-24 road win and most recently they lost last week to Arkansas. Yes this is a 10-2 team and yes most people are saying that they are the best team in the Nation but betting wise they are 5-7 ATS on the season and only 2-3 ATS away from home. I am very concerned about their road games versus Alabama and Kentucky because the Volunteers are better than both those teams and they could give LSU just as many problems. The Tigers come into this game averaging a whopping 49.0 points per game in their last three games this season and they have done that by averaging 468.0 total yards of offense per game and 6.1 yards per play in those games. However, Tennessee's defense has played a lot better than they have gotten credit for lately as they have allowed 29.0 points per game in their last three games and in those games have allowed 374.0 total yards of offense and 4.9 yards per play which is pretty damn good considering how wild this conference has been all season. On the ground, LSU has completely dominated their opponents the last three games averaging 251.0 rushing yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry but they might run into some problems in this game as Tennessee has been very stiff against the run and the Vols have allowed only 130.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games on 3.1 yards per carry and a battle tested 41.7 run attempts per game. That could force LSU to pass a lot more than they planned in this game and who knows if that is going to workout with QB Matt Flynn being hurt and QB Ryan Perilloux being the possible starter. Either way, the LSU QB's have completed only 53.9% of their passes the last three games for only 6.4 yards per pass attempt and that can't be good news against this Tennessee defense that has allowed their last three opponent QB's to complete only 58.1% of their passes for only 6.2 yards per pass attempt. LSU's offensive line has allowed 6 sacks in the last three games and although the Volunteers have not shown much of a pass rush in their last three games, they do have 5 interceptions and they do have some guys who can make big plays. The problem I have with the LSU offense in this game is that in recent weeks, they have rellied way too heavily on their running game averaging 42.7 carries per game and that is something that is probably not going to work at all against the Volunteers defense. The quarterback situation is in a cloud of haze right now and I don't know that this is good heading into a game like this. LSU is not the kind of team that is going to lose because they turn the ball over but I think the Tigers are going to make some mistakes in this game and I think they are going to get caught sleeping after their loss to Arkansas last week. This is by no means an easy win for this team because they are back away from home where they have sucked all season against better teams and they are up against a Tennessee team that is out to prove something.
Call me crazy or call me an idiot with my predicted scoreline. The bottom line is that I like the way Tennessee matches up with the Tigers in this game and I have seen LSU play with fire one too many times this season to know better than to bet on them at this kind of number. The Tigers defense has been M.I.A. for about a month now and I refuse to bet on a team that cannot keep opponents to under 20 points on a consistant basis (LSU has allowed 20+ points in 5 of their last 6 games). This is an interesting matchup however because it pits two of the most overrated coaches in this Conference, it pits the #1 and #2 rated offensive lines, it pits two of the best LB corps in this Conference and we get to see the most underrated QB in the SEC (Erik Ainge) play one more in-conference game before the end of his career. I don't know what the hell is going on at LSU but there has been all that talk about Les Miles moving to Michigan (talking anyways), the Tigers don't have a clue who their QB1 is tomorrow and the list goes on. I don't know how good your memories are but Tennessee beat LSU on the road in 2005 and the Volunteers lost to LSU by 4 points in their home meeting with them in 2006. So since almost every game in the SEC (big games that is) have come down to overtime or game winning field goals this season, I am calling for this game to be a bit more out of hand and I am calling for the Volunteers to shock the Nation, mess up the BCS and beat the crap out of the LSU Tigers. Tennessee are the new SEC Champions.
Trend of the Game: LSU is 1-6 ATS in their last seven SEC Conference games.
Tennessee 28, LSU 14
BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP
Oklahoma Sooners -3 (100 Units)
***CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY OF THE YEAR****
***CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY OF THE YEAR****
The Oklahoma Sooners think they are the best team in this Country, they know they are the best team in this Country and they have a one time chance of showing everyone that they ARE the best team in this Country. Well that's how it works right? You beat the #1 team in the Country and you should become the best team. Well not exactly but seeing how Oklahoma was being talked about for the BCS Championship Game all season long until their second loss of the season a few weeks ago against Texas Tech, it's only fitting that the Sooners earn that spot if they prove themselves and win. Oklahoma is and has been a powerhouse team all season long whether you like to believe it or not and again I would like to mention that their two losses were complete flukes and that on both occasions the Sooners were the better team but for some reason they fell asleep at the wheel (late in the Colorado loss and early in the Texas Tech loss). Other than those two losses, unlike LSU, the Sooners proved themselves by winning games big and in convincing fashion. Yes both losses came on the road and yes the Sooners are 1-4 ATS away from home this season but this is a team they have already beat and this is another chance for Oklahoma to sneak into that BCS Title Game with or without some controvery. The Sooners come into this game averaging 43.8 points per game this season (good for #3 in the Nation) and they have done that by averaging 458.4 total yards of offense per game on 6.6 yards per play in those games. Missouri's defense plain and simply cannot handle that kind of offense. The Tigers have allowed 23.4 points per game this season and in those games they have allowed 380.5 total yards of offense per game and 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, losing RB DeMarco Murray for the season was and is a big blow to this team, however RB Allen Patrick is just as good and has just as much of a devastating impact on other teams. The Sooners have rushed for 194.8 rushing yards per game this season on 4.8 yards per carry in those games and they should have no problems once again running all over a Missouri defense that has been solid and allowed only 114.7 rushing yards per game this season on 3.6 yards per carry. The run game is only going to set things up for the air attack of QB Sam Bradford who has completed 70.2% of his passes this season for 2670 passing yards, 9.5 yards per pass attempt, 32 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. And why is he not being talked about for the Heisman? He is up against a Missouri defense that has allowed opposing QB's to complete 61.9% of their passes this season for 6.4 yards per pass attempt which could help contain some Oklahoma big yardage plays but it is doubtful that the Tigers can hold Oklahoma to under 40 points. The Tigers rely heavily on their pass rush abilities which will be useless in this game because the Sooners O-Line has allowed less than one sack per game this season and Bradford has been comfortable all season. Much like the Tigers, Oklahoma has been successful because they have turned the ball over less than twice per game this season and they are one of the best disciplined teams in this Conference. Missouri has looked half decent on defense all season but I just can't trust them in a big game like this. With so much on the line I think the Sooners are going to pullout all the stops on both sides of the ball and once they go up early, they won't look back and will get stronger as the game moves along. You can argue all you want that missing DeMarco Murray is a big deal but he carried the ball only 4 times in the first meeting so he is a non-factor. Oklahoma is too good, too strong and they are not losing this game. Not here, not now. PLAY OF THE YEAR!
The Missouri Tigers know what they are in for in this BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP game because they were leading Oklahoma heading into the 4th quarter in the first meeting but it didn't take long for things to drastically change and before they knew it, the Tigers were down 41-24 with not much time left to play in the game. Like I mentioned a few times already, I was on Missouri in the first meeting because the spread was right and because the situation was a bit different. I am well aware that the Tigers were in that game for the most part and that the outcome could have been totally different but I am also aware that Oklahoma is a very good team and Missouri now has all the pressure in the world on their shoulders as the #1 ranked team in the Nation. Yes the win over Kansas last weekend was very impressive but I have Kansas down as a bit of a 'Pretender' team while the Sooners are the real deal. Missouri is 6-0 straight up since their loss to Oklahoma and they are 4-2 ATS in those games. Looking back at some of the games the 11-1 Tigers played on the road, it is clear that this team will probably outyard every opponent they face and it is clear that despite being 3-1 straight up away from home, the one and only time the Tigers were tested on the road was their loss to these Sooners. Beating Mississippi and Colorado on the road doesn't mean too much to me. The Tigers come into this game tonight averaging 41.9 points per game this season and they have done that by also averaging 506.9 total yards of offense per game and 6.3 yards per play in those games. Impressive stuff for sure. However, Oklahoma's defense is pretty damn good and they have allowed only 18.3 points per game this season and allowed 324.6 total yards of offense per game on 4.7 yards per play in those games. Bear in mind that the Sooners have allowed 21 or less points in 8 games this season and that is pretty damn good. On the ground, RBs Tony Temple and Jeremy Macclin were held to 54 yards rushing combined in the first meeting and there is no reason to believe that will change seeing how the Tigers average 170.1 rushing yards per game this season on 4.5 yards per carry. However, they have to once again face this Sooners defense that has allowed only 91.4 rushing yards per game this season on 2.8 yards per carry and neither RB will do better than last time. In the air, QB Chase Daniel is damn good and he has completed 70.5% of his passes this season for 3951 passing yards, 8.0 yards per pass attempt, 33 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. Oklahoma's pass defense has only allowed a lot of yardage because teams always play from behind against them as opponents have completed 60.8% of their passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt against them this season. Despite playing so well this season, Daniel could be in trouble in this game (3 interceptions in the first meeting) as the Sooners bring a lot of pressure packages and the Sooners force a lot of mistakes (from opposing QBs). The Sooners have 28 sacks on the season while Daniel has been sacked 16 times in 12 games so the smart to do for Oklahoma is going to be come at Daniel with even more pressure than the last time to keep him off balance and keep him uncomfortable. We already know the Tigers running game won't work so why let them pass? It is going to be very interesting to see what Missouri can do differently than the first meeting here. I actually thought they played way above thier heads in that game but still came up short. The Tigers have won me some cash this season but it's time to let them go and it's time to watch them lose to the team I believe should be playing for the National Title come next month.
FOOLS FOOLS FOOLS! All of you betting on Missouri because of what they did against Kansas last week are complete fools. Oklahoma is hands down and by far the best team in the BIG 12 this season and this is coming from someone who bet on Missouri +13.5 the first time these two teams met this season. Yes I was on the Tigers because the spread was way too high, the Sooners were at home and the circumstance was different. So can you please explain to me once again how the Sooners went from -13.5 to -3 in a matter of a month a half despite beating these Tigers by 10 points in the first meeting? What the hell has Missouri done since that game (they beat some mediocre in-conference opponents) to earn such respect? I cannot believe that more than 50% of wagerliners are on Missouri in this game because that makes them blind sheeps to the fact that absolutely nothing has really changed from the last time these two teams met. Did you all forget that this is Bob Stoops (82% career win percentage) versus Gary Pinkel (62% career win percentage) and that there is no really comparing the two when it comes to guys who know how to win? I will be brutally honest. If the season ended before today, I would pick Oklahoma and Florida as the two best teams and have them play for the National Title. However that is not the case and the only way the Sooners can get into that Title game is by winning this one big and with a bit of luck from oh say Tennessee or something. Oklahoma wins this baby large.
Trend of the Game: Oklahoma is 4-1 ATS in their last five December games.
Oklahoma 45, Missouri 27
GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND THANKS FOR ALL THE WELL WISHES THIS SEASON! I APOLOGIZE TO THOSE WHO TAILED ME THIS YEAR, I WAS SIDE-TRACKED WAY TOO MANY TIMES AND HAD MY WORSE YEAR EVER IN CFB! SEE YOU ALL IN THE BOWL SEASON!
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