First of all, I may buy off or hedge on some of these at some point.
If I am hedging a future, I will note that if I post the play.
I played the first bet last weekend and will simply cut n paste the write-up here.
I did just finally play GT this morning. I have planned on playing them in some form all along but wanted to wait a bit. I do think this number will not get lower. Yes, I could of had a better number early but I simply cannot lock myself into many bowl plays early with all the movement that happens this month that is out of our hands.
There is a good chance I will not get to posting everything but I figure this gives a good fade thread for everyone. I will have an assortment of TT's, sides, live plays and a few props methinks.
Good luck to all, and I'll keep the B1G thoughts in the separate thread.
Florida +7.5 -110 3 units
If this game was played in the regular season, Michigan would win pretty comfortably. This is basically the SEC equivalent of Penn State in my opinion (not exact style but as far as how I would rate them). It would be a comfortable 27-30 to 13-17 kind of game.
But...
Bowls are becoming more and more of an animal nowadays.
So, why do I like Florida as of today?
-Nothing has changed, this team will be motivated. Many of them remember getting smoked in Dallas to begin last season.
-Several players were around for the 2016 Citrus Bowl, which was also a blowout(obviously not a lot, but I am sure this is being used by the staff)
-This bowl game will mean more to them. It is a solid accomplishment to cap off a pretty good season. They have to like how the program arc is going right now.
So, why do I not like Michigan as of today?
-Motivation is big. Now, several players have noted they really want a good bowl showing after last years 2nd half collapse. I am not buying that in totality.
-I expect, as I said, that several players on defense will not play. Gary is announced out. I fully expect Bush, Hill and Long to join along with maybe another one up in the air. That is 4 draft picks right there not playing. The corners will be felt the most out of all this(if they do not play)
-Either way, this defense (throw away the Urban retirement game which they got blasted to another planet) when at full or near full strength is pretty damn good, among the best still. The thing is, they won't be at full strength most likely.
-I would expect you'll hear about one key contributor on offense not playing as well. We shall see.
This line, in my estimation has topped out. I do not see it going much higher or really at all. The initial movement last Sunday was towards the Florida side and I expect it will close below 7.
Now, I am not one that believes in betting too early this time of year due to suspensions/etc. Well, we are really taking a gamble here when it comes to the Gators! lol. They always have some players that cannot keep their nose clean during the break from school.
Either way, I do expect to keep the bet or I can buy off. I want the number and feel good about it in this particular game. I in no way would endorse such a play in a regular season game.
Georgia Tech -4 -110 2 units
My plan, as of now, is to go to this game. The Ramblin Wreck have been a favorite of mine the last few months to analyze. I definitely got on board the 'retro' train of thought after awhile. He is good at planting seeds once in awhile in your head. This is Paul's last game and I think he goes out with a bang. ,Minnesota was much better down the stretch but I do think they will wear down as this game goes on. They will score too, but not nearly enough. I'll get into this game more next week but I see something like 34-21.
If I am hedging a future, I will note that if I post the play.
I played the first bet last weekend and will simply cut n paste the write-up here.
I did just finally play GT this morning. I have planned on playing them in some form all along but wanted to wait a bit. I do think this number will not get lower. Yes, I could of had a better number early but I simply cannot lock myself into many bowl plays early with all the movement that happens this month that is out of our hands.
There is a good chance I will not get to posting everything but I figure this gives a good fade thread for everyone. I will have an assortment of TT's, sides, live plays and a few props methinks.
Good luck to all, and I'll keep the B1G thoughts in the separate thread.
Florida +7.5 -110 3 units
If this game was played in the regular season, Michigan would win pretty comfortably. This is basically the SEC equivalent of Penn State in my opinion (not exact style but as far as how I would rate them). It would be a comfortable 27-30 to 13-17 kind of game.
But...
Bowls are becoming more and more of an animal nowadays.
So, why do I like Florida as of today?
-Nothing has changed, this team will be motivated. Many of them remember getting smoked in Dallas to begin last season.
-Several players were around for the 2016 Citrus Bowl, which was also a blowout(obviously not a lot, but I am sure this is being used by the staff)
-This bowl game will mean more to them. It is a solid accomplishment to cap off a pretty good season. They have to like how the program arc is going right now.
So, why do I not like Michigan as of today?
-Motivation is big. Now, several players have noted they really want a good bowl showing after last years 2nd half collapse. I am not buying that in totality.
-I expect, as I said, that several players on defense will not play. Gary is announced out. I fully expect Bush, Hill and Long to join along with maybe another one up in the air. That is 4 draft picks right there not playing. The corners will be felt the most out of all this(if they do not play)
-Either way, this defense (throw away the Urban retirement game which they got blasted to another planet) when at full or near full strength is pretty damn good, among the best still. The thing is, they won't be at full strength most likely.
-I would expect you'll hear about one key contributor on offense not playing as well. We shall see.
This line, in my estimation has topped out. I do not see it going much higher or really at all. The initial movement last Sunday was towards the Florida side and I expect it will close below 7.
Now, I am not one that believes in betting too early this time of year due to suspensions/etc. Well, we are really taking a gamble here when it comes to the Gators! lol. They always have some players that cannot keep their nose clean during the break from school.
Either way, I do expect to keep the bet or I can buy off. I want the number and feel good about it in this particular game. I in no way would endorse such a play in a regular season game.
Georgia Tech -4 -110 2 units
My plan, as of now, is to go to this game. The Ramblin Wreck have been a favorite of mine the last few months to analyze. I definitely got on board the 'retro' train of thought after awhile. He is good at planting seeds once in awhile in your head. This is Paul's last game and I think he goes out with a bang. ,Minnesota was much better down the stretch but I do think they will wear down as this game goes on. They will score too, but not nearly enough. I'll get into this game more next week but I see something like 34-21.
.
