Milwaukee @ Miami

[Stew Baker]

Pablo Lopez got exposed in his 2nd big league start by a jacked-up Nationals team. Did cash a Mia. F5 ticket there, benefitting from the misadventures of an overvalued (at this particular moment) Hellickson. Now I think its time to go the other way with Lopez.

I think the best value here is with the Milw. F5 team total over 2 -115. Milwaukee is a decent offensive team, and seems to have a little extra motivation after a loss (with a .649 win % in that situation). In going over the 2 laying 15 cents, the probability of Milw. scoring 3 or more for the first 5 needs to be more than 1.15 times higher than the probability of them scoring 0 or 1 in that time frame, in order for there to be positive expected value. And in this opinion, the number for this is considerably higher than 1.15, so there's good value here.

Milw. F5 TT over 2 -115

 

[Fondybadger]

I like it and I'll probably ride it with you. Wasn't sure what I wanted to do with this one, but was going to do something. Sorry for the kiss of death with me following along.

 

[JROCK1966]

Some mojo for the Marlins...sorry if unwelcomed. Home dogs on Tuesdays in July before the All-Star break, with losing records and hosting a team with a winning record, on 0 rest and won the night before, have profited nicely in the past. They have a 9-2 SU record and a 10-1 RL record (the one printed is incorrect...it should be 10-1). The only time the RL lost for the dog you have to go way back to 2006 and see Thomson starting for the Braves. In pic 2 I looked up his stats for that year and he was woeful in June with an 8.22 ERA and the only game he started in July was this one. It does not look like he started again the rest of the season. Pablo did pitch well in his only start at home. Currently at 5Dimes you can get +1.5 RL for -115 if interested. Cheers!

 

[Stew Baker]

Some mojo for the Marlins...sorry if unwelcomed. Home dogs on Tuesdays in July before the All-Star break, with losing records and hosting a team with a winning record, on 0 rest and won the night before, have profited nicely in the past. They have a 9-2 SU record and a 10-1 RL record (the one printed is incorrect...it should be 10-1). The only time the RL lost for the dog you have to go way back to 2006 and see Thomson starting for the Braves. In pic 2 I looked up his stats for that year and he was woeful in June with an 8.22 ERA and the only game he started in July was this one. It does not look like he started again the rest of the season. Pablo did pitch well in his only start at home. Currently at 5Dimes you can get +1.5 RL for -115 if interested. Cheers!

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Interesting trend. As inferred don't like Lopez starting for Mia. tonight. If Mia. gets down, might be a spot for a live wager. I'm focusing on Lopez, and whoever else, if anyone, might pitch for Mia. in the first five, giving up more than 2, so no conflict seen with the trend.

 

[Stew Baker]

Some mojo for the Marlins...sorry if unwelcomed. Home dogs on Tuesdays in July before the All-Star break, with losing records and hosting a team with a winning record, on 0 rest and won the night before, have profited nicely in the past. They have a 9-2 SU record and a 10-1 RL record (the one printed is incorrect...it should be 10-1). The only time the RL lost for the dog you have to go way back to 2006 and see Thomson starting for the Braves. In pic 2 I looked up his stats for that year and he was woeful in June with an 8.22 ERA and the only game he started in July was this one. It does not look like he started again the rest of the season. Pablo did pitch well in his only start at home. Currently at 5Dimes you can get +1.5 RL for -115 if interested. Cheers!

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If I was playing the trend, rather than take the RL with a 10-1 recent history, I'd go with the ML at 9-2 getting 55 cents or so better price, no?

 

[JROCK1966]

If I was playing the trend, rather than take the RL with a 10-1 recent history, I'd go with the ML at 9-2 getting 55 cents or so better price, no?

I’d do both but that my personal preference. My thinking would be to at least try and win the RL and take a shot at the ML. Good luck in what you decide!!

 

[Fondybadger]

Nice hit on over. Thank you. Thought with the runners left on base and base running it was going to bite us in the ass.