False Hopes to Keep Michigan Under 2018 Win Total
Michigan is counting on its transfer quarterback Shea Patterson to be some sort of savior. But Patterson will be the first reason why Michigan doesn’t reach 10 wins.
Michigan 2018 Regular Season Win Total
NCAAF Pick: „Under“ 9.5
Top Heisman Candidate: Shea Patterson +2000
Odds to Win Big Ten: +300
Odds to Win National Championship: +1400
2017 Record: 8-5 SU, 5-7-1 ATS, 6-6-1 O/U
Coach:
Jim Harbaugh's college coaching resume is slowly converting into doubters those who had high expectations for him. He led one double-digit win season at Stanford, where he had superstar Andrew Luck at quarterback. He did have two double-digit win seasons at Michigan—in 2015, where Michigan was led by ultra ball-secure transfer quarterback Jake Rudock, who was a perfect fit in Harbaugh’s pro-style offense— and in 2016, where Michigan was favored by double digits in all but one game. So far at Michigan, he is 1-5 against Michigan State and Ohio State (the one win coming in MSU’s disastrous three-win season), 5-9 against ranked teams, 1-7 against top-ten teams, 1-2 in bowl games, 0-6 as an underdog, 0-3 against ranked teams on the road, and 9-8 since destroying Maryland in 2016.
Offense:
The Michigan fanbase seems to view transfer quarterback (from Ole Miss) Shea Patterson as a savior. This viewpoint is only understandable in light of last season's nightmarish quarterback carousel. John O’Korn, (who came from the University of Houston) Brandon Peters, and Wilton Speight averaged a combined 53.5% completion and threw more interceptions than touchdowns. They repeatedly missed simple throws, including many wide open deep routes to its speedy receivers, and cost their team in close and big games.
Patterson is the third transfer quarterback that Harbaugh has brought to Ann Arbor. He’s nothing like the pro-style quarterbacks Luck and Rudock who’ve brought success to Harbaugh. He’s popular because of his relative mobility, which will hopefully offset issues with pass protection. His deep ball is accurate as long as he’s not throwing across his body (to the left side of the field) where he was 3-for-16 with two interceptions. Harbaugh has supposedly studied the Philadelphia Eagles’ use of RPO and he also utilized some read option while at San Francisco with mobile quarterback Colin Kaepernik. So he will probably change the offense some to suit Patterson. Some change is important because Harbaugh likes his quarterbacks to go through his progressions and Patterson isn’t used to doing that.
Michigan’s „savior“ has yet to justify any hype. His numbers are largely skewed by dominating South Alabama, Tennessee-Martin, and Auburn—but Auburn after Ole Miss was down 35-3 at half and Auburn’s defense clearly took its foot off the pedal. Even O’Korn succeeded against the likes of Purdue’s pass defense. The key to understanding Patterson—and even Michigan as a whole—is to assess performance against good teams because Michigan has one of the hardest schedules and will face six teams that finished in the top 52 in opposing passer rating against ranked teams. Patterson faced two pass defenses who ranked in the top 80 in opposing completion percentage, Alabama and LSU, and he failed to complete half his passes against them. His completion percentage against both schools was well below each one’s respective season average of opposing completion. Patterson wasn’t just inefficient, though, he was also dangerous. He threw nine interceptions in seven starts, one fewer than Michigan quarterbacks did all season. He struggled whenever the opposing coverage could take away his pass options so that he had to drop back and go through his progressions. Harbaugh likes to utilize big formations to force defenses to employ big, coverage-inept defenders and Patterson can sometimes set his feet and release the ball quickly enough to make simple throws. But he’s also a notoriously reckless player who makes aggressive mistakes and is also anxious and makes mistakes when he bails too soon from the pocket. He’s a poor fit in Michigan because of his low quarterback IQ in terms of reading coverages and his poor discipline. Not only will he not be Michigan’s savior, he will play worse than he did while at Ole Miss and not be the huge upgrade over O’Korn that Michigan fans pray for. What Harbaugh needs is the complete opposite of Patterson, a Rudock reincarnate.
The Junior only had seven starts due to injury, but durability is crucial for a Michigan quarterback because he'll have to take hits. Michigan’s o-line ranked 111th in sacks allowed last season. The offensive line should benefit from increased simplicity and a new coach from Ohio State, but it’s also a case of „it can’t get any worse.“ It suffered missed assignments and other blunders that left them ill-prepared against stunts and blitzes. The interior should improve if sophomore Cesar Ruiz transitions smoothly from right guard to center, which is his natural position. The biggest questions remain at both tackle positions, where different players are in the mix to start. Tackle Jalen Mayfield, rated a three-star recruit by ESPN, could become Michigan's second ever freshman offensive lineman to start the season opener.
The transfer quarterback will see a downgrade in support, especially at wide receiver. He’ll have to develop chemistry with a new crew that utterly lacks the proven resume of his former teammates, first of all A.J. Brown, who caught 75 passes for 1252 yards and is perhaps the nation’s top receiver. Tarik Black showed promise as a deep threat. The freshman led the receiving crew before his injury in the third game. On the one hand, he didn’t get a full season of work under his belt. On the other, he was the most reliable freshman in terms of catch and drop rates and his speed (mid-4.4 40-yard dash) allowing him to get open. Donovan Peoples-Jones was a five-star recruit because of his athleticism. He put up poor numbers, but improved his confidence and decisiveness off the line as the season progressed. Like fellow then-freshman Nico Collins, he showed inconsistency in terms of drops and route running. The tight ends were the main weapons and found the most, but still modest, success with their combination of size and athleticism. The whole receiving crew returns. It would benefit from continuity and by eventually developing chemistry with its new quarterback, but it also needs to help Patterson by polishing its skill-set and improving in 50-50 balls.
The Wolverine running backs form a talented committee, led by Karan Higdon’s 994 yards and 6.1 yards per carry. But, as is the case with Patterson, the brunt of his success came against bad teams—Rutgers, Minnesota, and Indiana. Overall, Michigan averaged 2.8 rushing yards or fewer against Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, finishing below the defense’s opposing average yards per carry in each game. Michigan’s offensive line was strong in short-yardage situations, ranking seven in power success rate and 47 in stuff rate, because of its interior, which still comprises its strength. But the problem was that Michigan averaged 7.3 yards-to-go on third down and therefore struggled to convert third downs.
Defense:
Michigan’s defense flopped once at Penn State—but an off-week happens. Otherwise, it held the two best opposing rush attacks that it faced, Wisconsin and Ohio State, well below its season average in terms of yards per carry. Michigan returns four of five defensive linemen from last season, including two first-team Big 10—Chase Winovich, who led the team with 10 tackles for loss and eight sacks — and Rashan Gary, who had six sacks and six tackles for loss as both defensive tackle and defensive end and led UM with seven quarterback hits despite repeatedly facing double and triple teams. Granted, replacing current Oakland Raider Maurice Hurst at defensive tackle will be tough with the current batch of more inexperienced, less proven players at that position.
The linebackers also return two All-Big 10, Devin Bush, who led UM with 100 tackles, and Khaleke Hudson, who contributed 82 tackles, 8 sacks, and 9.5 tackles for loss. Not only were they disruptive behind the line of scrimmage, but they were versatile enough to be effective in pass coverage, combining for 17 pass breakups and three interceptions. They helped Michigan have the best pass defense in terms of opposing yards allowed. They held every regular season opponent under 200 pass yards except Penn State. This entire secondary returns, led by lockdown cornerback Lavert Hill, who was second team all-Big Ten with seven pass breakups and two interceptions, and David Long, who added six broken passes and two interceptions.
Michigan’s defense was great despite its stagnant offense repeatedly putting them in bad field position—a problem that the interception-prone Patterson will exacerbate. Despite their strong numbers against opposing rush and pass attacks, they held Ohio State to its points-per-game average against winning teams, held Wisconsin below its inflated (by a cupcake schedule) average by four points, and failed to hold PSU. I’m discounting the effort against Michigan State because the weather was disgusting. Because of Michigan’s offensive inefficiency, the opposing offense didn’t have to do too much to win. In Michigan’s losses, the opponent averaged 4.5 yards per carry—its stronger opponents, Ohio State’s JK Dobbins and Mike Weber and Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor easily exceeded this number.
Michigan is counting on its transfer quarterback Shea Patterson to be some sort of savior. But Patterson will be the first reason why Michigan doesn’t reach 10 wins.
Michigan 2018 Regular Season Win Total
NCAAF Pick: „Under“ 9.5
Top Heisman Candidate: Shea Patterson +2000
Odds to Win Big Ten: +300
Odds to Win National Championship: +1400
2017 Record: 8-5 SU, 5-7-1 ATS, 6-6-1 O/U
Coach:
Jim Harbaugh's college coaching resume is slowly converting into doubters those who had high expectations for him. He led one double-digit win season at Stanford, where he had superstar Andrew Luck at quarterback. He did have two double-digit win seasons at Michigan—in 2015, where Michigan was led by ultra ball-secure transfer quarterback Jake Rudock, who was a perfect fit in Harbaugh’s pro-style offense— and in 2016, where Michigan was favored by double digits in all but one game. So far at Michigan, he is 1-5 against Michigan State and Ohio State (the one win coming in MSU’s disastrous three-win season), 5-9 against ranked teams, 1-7 against top-ten teams, 1-2 in bowl games, 0-6 as an underdog, 0-3 against ranked teams on the road, and 9-8 since destroying Maryland in 2016.
Offense:
The Michigan fanbase seems to view transfer quarterback (from Ole Miss) Shea Patterson as a savior. This viewpoint is only understandable in light of last season's nightmarish quarterback carousel. John O’Korn, (who came from the University of Houston) Brandon Peters, and Wilton Speight averaged a combined 53.5% completion and threw more interceptions than touchdowns. They repeatedly missed simple throws, including many wide open deep routes to its speedy receivers, and cost their team in close and big games.
Patterson is the third transfer quarterback that Harbaugh has brought to Ann Arbor. He’s nothing like the pro-style quarterbacks Luck and Rudock who’ve brought success to Harbaugh. He’s popular because of his relative mobility, which will hopefully offset issues with pass protection. His deep ball is accurate as long as he’s not throwing across his body (to the left side of the field) where he was 3-for-16 with two interceptions. Harbaugh has supposedly studied the Philadelphia Eagles’ use of RPO and he also utilized some read option while at San Francisco with mobile quarterback Colin Kaepernik. So he will probably change the offense some to suit Patterson. Some change is important because Harbaugh likes his quarterbacks to go through his progressions and Patterson isn’t used to doing that.
Michigan’s „savior“ has yet to justify any hype. His numbers are largely skewed by dominating South Alabama, Tennessee-Martin, and Auburn—but Auburn after Ole Miss was down 35-3 at half and Auburn’s defense clearly took its foot off the pedal. Even O’Korn succeeded against the likes of Purdue’s pass defense. The key to understanding Patterson—and even Michigan as a whole—is to assess performance against good teams because Michigan has one of the hardest schedules and will face six teams that finished in the top 52 in opposing passer rating against ranked teams. Patterson faced two pass defenses who ranked in the top 80 in opposing completion percentage, Alabama and LSU, and he failed to complete half his passes against them. His completion percentage against both schools was well below each one’s respective season average of opposing completion. Patterson wasn’t just inefficient, though, he was also dangerous. He threw nine interceptions in seven starts, one fewer than Michigan quarterbacks did all season. He struggled whenever the opposing coverage could take away his pass options so that he had to drop back and go through his progressions. Harbaugh likes to utilize big formations to force defenses to employ big, coverage-inept defenders and Patterson can sometimes set his feet and release the ball quickly enough to make simple throws. But he’s also a notoriously reckless player who makes aggressive mistakes and is also anxious and makes mistakes when he bails too soon from the pocket. He’s a poor fit in Michigan because of his low quarterback IQ in terms of reading coverages and his poor discipline. Not only will he not be Michigan’s savior, he will play worse than he did while at Ole Miss and not be the huge upgrade over O’Korn that Michigan fans pray for. What Harbaugh needs is the complete opposite of Patterson, a Rudock reincarnate.
The Junior only had seven starts due to injury, but durability is crucial for a Michigan quarterback because he'll have to take hits. Michigan’s o-line ranked 111th in sacks allowed last season. The offensive line should benefit from increased simplicity and a new coach from Ohio State, but it’s also a case of „it can’t get any worse.“ It suffered missed assignments and other blunders that left them ill-prepared against stunts and blitzes. The interior should improve if sophomore Cesar Ruiz transitions smoothly from right guard to center, which is his natural position. The biggest questions remain at both tackle positions, where different players are in the mix to start. Tackle Jalen Mayfield, rated a three-star recruit by ESPN, could become Michigan's second ever freshman offensive lineman to start the season opener.
The transfer quarterback will see a downgrade in support, especially at wide receiver. He’ll have to develop chemistry with a new crew that utterly lacks the proven resume of his former teammates, first of all A.J. Brown, who caught 75 passes for 1252 yards and is perhaps the nation’s top receiver. Tarik Black showed promise as a deep threat. The freshman led the receiving crew before his injury in the third game. On the one hand, he didn’t get a full season of work under his belt. On the other, he was the most reliable freshman in terms of catch and drop rates and his speed (mid-4.4 40-yard dash) allowing him to get open. Donovan Peoples-Jones was a five-star recruit because of his athleticism. He put up poor numbers, but improved his confidence and decisiveness off the line as the season progressed. Like fellow then-freshman Nico Collins, he showed inconsistency in terms of drops and route running. The tight ends were the main weapons and found the most, but still modest, success with their combination of size and athleticism. The whole receiving crew returns. It would benefit from continuity and by eventually developing chemistry with its new quarterback, but it also needs to help Patterson by polishing its skill-set and improving in 50-50 balls.
The Wolverine running backs form a talented committee, led by Karan Higdon’s 994 yards and 6.1 yards per carry. But, as is the case with Patterson, the brunt of his success came against bad teams—Rutgers, Minnesota, and Indiana. Overall, Michigan averaged 2.8 rushing yards or fewer against Michigan State, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State, finishing below the defense’s opposing average yards per carry in each game. Michigan’s offensive line was strong in short-yardage situations, ranking seven in power success rate and 47 in stuff rate, because of its interior, which still comprises its strength. But the problem was that Michigan averaged 7.3 yards-to-go on third down and therefore struggled to convert third downs.
Defense:
Michigan’s defense flopped once at Penn State—but an off-week happens. Otherwise, it held the two best opposing rush attacks that it faced, Wisconsin and Ohio State, well below its season average in terms of yards per carry. Michigan returns four of five defensive linemen from last season, including two first-team Big 10—Chase Winovich, who led the team with 10 tackles for loss and eight sacks — and Rashan Gary, who had six sacks and six tackles for loss as both defensive tackle and defensive end and led UM with seven quarterback hits despite repeatedly facing double and triple teams. Granted, replacing current Oakland Raider Maurice Hurst at defensive tackle will be tough with the current batch of more inexperienced, less proven players at that position.
The linebackers also return two All-Big 10, Devin Bush, who led UM with 100 tackles, and Khaleke Hudson, who contributed 82 tackles, 8 sacks, and 9.5 tackles for loss. Not only were they disruptive behind the line of scrimmage, but they were versatile enough to be effective in pass coverage, combining for 17 pass breakups and three interceptions. They helped Michigan have the best pass defense in terms of opposing yards allowed. They held every regular season opponent under 200 pass yards except Penn State. This entire secondary returns, led by lockdown cornerback Lavert Hill, who was second team all-Big Ten with seven pass breakups and two interceptions, and David Long, who added six broken passes and two interceptions.
Michigan’s defense was great despite its stagnant offense repeatedly putting them in bad field position—a problem that the interception-prone Patterson will exacerbate. Despite their strong numbers against opposing rush and pass attacks, they held Ohio State to its points-per-game average against winning teams, held Wisconsin below its inflated (by a cupcake schedule) average by four points, and failed to hold PSU. I’m discounting the effort against Michigan State because the weather was disgusting. Because of Michigan’s offensive inefficiency, the opposing offense didn’t have to do too much to win. In Michigan’s losses, the opponent averaged 4.5 yards per carry—its stronger opponents, Ohio State’s JK Dobbins and Mike Weber and Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor easily exceeded this number.
Last edited:
