From Da Ville
This from a Season ticket holder to the Pizza Box... And will be there tomorrow. And have made a killing of the Cards this year...
I agree with all of you... somewhat... Louisville has yet to face a defense with the likes of Miami.
First, let me say this. Yes, Louisville has had 4 key injuries this year. One being Bush, Heisman candidate. Secondly, they still have the best offense in the country. Third, their team has been zip lipped all week. Also, please remember that 40-50% of the Cards players are from the sunshine state.
Miami has maybe the fastest defense in the country. This will give the Cards issues. Esp, with UL younger OL. UL has to establish the running game. If Stripling can bust an early run for 10+ yards, then it is over. If not, then it could be over.
UL has not used its main threat all year in hopes of this game. Urruitia is the Cards main deep man averaging astronomical numbers per catch. Brohms timing has been off all year, but will try to squeeze it in there to him early and often. Look for Super Mario to catch 5-6 passes on crossing patterns. Get him over top the linebackers in the open field and he has a chance to take it to the house.
Cards defense is definitely down. Miami's offense never was up. I have been playing 8-10 units per game either on UL or UL/over or UL's opponent and over all year. And I will continue to do so. I figure it is a double or nothing situation most of the time. Just for future notes for all you degenerates.
This week tends to be different. I am not sure the Cards can strike early with the running game. Also, the Cards were so terribly defensively last year because their kickoff team ranked in the bottom 20% of 1A. Generally most teams started on average on their own 35. That is 15 yds too many. This year they are better, but probably not up to par. If Miami wins, it wins on Kick returns and two interceptions.
No kick run backs and no pix, then forget about it. Cards walk away by 17 pts and possibly play W. Virginia to get into the Nat'l Championship.
So, imho, miami wins with DST or they lose with DST. Miami will score 24-30. The question is, does UL score more? Doesn't matter.
Smart money takes the over. If the Cards cover, then the over is for sure. If Miami covers, then that means the Cards has more offensive chances to put the biscuit in the basket.
My play, Over for 1 unit. and Cards for 1 unit (just because). I just can't bet that Miami's QB is good enough to throw one close enough to intercept. And I can't bet that Brohm is going to throw 2 pix.
But, smart money buys the $6 beers at the Pizza box and just watches the game. From Da Ville, watch and wish... Better than play and pay.:drinking:
