May Bases

[mrpickem]

THURSDAY [8-6-2 +13.88u]
MAY 2021 [74-64 +22.25u]

• 3/5.04 Cardinals +168
• 3/2.91 Reds / Rockies UNDER 10½ -103
• 3/2.86 Rockies -105
• 3/5.85 Marlins +195
• 3/2.31 Yankees -1½ -130
• 4/1.95 Astros -205
• 3/4.56 Athletics -1½ +152
• 3/3.66 Jays -1½ +122
• 3/2.91 Cubs / Tigers UNDER 8½ -103
• 3/2.33 Cubs -129

Pend;
BOS 1'
MIL U

randoms...

Yankees -1½ -130 ...After early struggles the Yanks are 11-4 in L15 and facing Dean Kremer (0-3,6.23 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) of the O's who are 2-6 in their last 8. NYY are already responsible for two of his three losses this season. He has an 11.05 ERA in 7.1 IP vs NYY. Back in the beginning of April he was pulled with 0 outs in the 4th after the Yankees scored 3 runs on 5 hits. They went on to cover theRL with a score of 7-2. He lasted longer in his second loss against them on the 28th, going 4 and one third but giving up 6 runs on 10 hits. The Yankees also covered the RL in that game, winning 7-0. In 4 of his 5 start this season, he has lasted less than 5 innings and allowed at least 3 runs. This is good news for the NY bullpen as they match up well at 4th in ERA while the O's are at 16th. Kluber (2-2, 3.06 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) is on the mound vs the O's, he faced them once this season. In that start he went 6.2 inn giving up a single run. The Yankees covered the stick in that game winning 5-1. He has also been hot as late, with a 1.33 ERA over his L3. He has been a lot more in control since his first 4 starts this season where he never made it past the fifth inning (15 IP in total) and had a 5.10 ERA with 14 K's. In his 3 starts since then he has lowered his ERA by 2.34 with 21 K's in 20.1 IP. The Yankee bats are also solid vs Balty, averaging 5.4 runs per game against them this season. The O's on the other hand are averaging 2.1 runs per game against the Yanks this season and have been shutout by them twice. I can see the Yankees cruising to a big win here.

​

​

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 3/4.71 Red Sox -1½ +157
• 3/2.78 Braves / Brewers UNDER 8 -108

No Chasin Sides tonight after 2-2 last night for small profit

Chasin unders was 1-0 last night and has hit 5 straight. Fairly amazing +13.1% ROI over 7+ years to show the way as the best performer of the Chasin series...

3 unders indicated tonight

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
FRIDAY [5-7 -6.39u]

• 4/6.40 Orioles +160
• 4/3.54 Orioles +1½ -113
• 4/2.10 White Sox -191
• 4/3.88 White Sox -1½ -103
• 4/6.48 Rangers +162
• 4/5.20 Cardinals +130

Pend;
MIA & U
TB & 1'
AZ

randoms...

White Sox ...Last time out Rodon faced the Royos where the southsiders won 3-0. Minor's last outing was against the Sox where he allowed 5 earned, and KC lost 9-3. I see some value in an alternate -2.5 line, but the -1.5 may be the sweet spot. Rodon comes in boasting a 0.58 ERA and 0.68 WHIP, while Minor has a 5.75 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. CHW is hitting .296 over the last 7 days, with a team .884 OPS. KC's hitting .212 over the last 7 days, with a team .577 OPS. Plus the last 24 times facing a left handed starter, Chicago is 23-1 SU and 21-3 on the RL!
KillerSports.com

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 4/2.82 Rays -142
• 4/5.60 Rays -1½ +140
• 4/4.00 Mets/Rays under 7½ +100
• 4/4.36 Diamondbacks +109
• 4/2.67 Pirates +1½ -150
• 4/3.64 Phillies/Jays under 9½ -110
• 4/3.54 Angels -113

:cheers3:

 

[nawlins51]

awww yeah on those Angels also

 

[Botanical]

A lot of angels love in here...mmmm

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
SATURDAY [5-8 -12.91u]

• 5/5.70 Cardinals +114
• 5/4.55 Cardinals / Padres UNDER 7 -110
• 5/5.10 Giants -1½ +102
• 5/3.23 Giants -155
• 5/5.25 Rockies +105
• 5/4.85 Diamondbacks -103
• 5/3.38 Red Sox -148
• 5/4.63 Angels /Red Sox OVER 9½ -108
• 5/4.42 Rangers / Astros UNDER 8 -113
• 5/5.00 Athletics +100
• 5/4.42 Phillies / Jays OVER 10 -113

Pend;
ATL & U
TB & U
KC
LAD & 1'
BAL 1'


randoms...

• Red Sox TT o4.5 ...With Quintana on the mound, this looks like a perfect opportunity to target a BOS lineup that is one of the best in the majors. The Sox lead the majors in runs, slugging, ops, doubles and hits. they are second in average and third in runs batted in. This is an excellent matchup vs Quintana who has a 9.00 ERA and a 2.14 WHIP through 6 starts this season. He is 0-3 in these starts giving up 21 earned runs in only 21 innings pitched. Players like Xander Bogaerts should have a great day at the plate as X is 6 for 14 (.429) against Quintana. JD Martinez should also perform well at the plate as he is 9 for 30 (.300) in his career versus the lefty. Hunter Renfroe has also homered off Quintana twice in only 8 AB's with a .375 average. I like the Red Sox to have a good offensive day today and win and go over the TT and game TOT.

​

​

​

 

[mrpickem]

adds...

• 5/4.90 Braves -102
• 5/5.00 Braves / Brewers UNDER 7 +100
• 5/5.15 Rays +103
• 5/4.63 Mets / Rays UNDER 7½ -108
• 4/6.00 Royals +150

Pend;
LAD & 1'
BAL 1'

​

TRENDS​

NY YANKEES @ BALTIMORE

• NY Yankees is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
• NY Yankees is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
• The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Baltimore's last 15 games when playing NY Yankees

SAN FRANCISCO @ PITTSBURGH

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
• Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco

PHILADELPHIA @ TORONTO

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
• Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
• Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

LA ANGELS @ BOSTON

• LA Angels is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Boston
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games at home

CHI CUBS @ DETROIT

• Chi Cubs is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 7 games
• Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
• Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

NY METS @ TAMPA BAY

• The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Mets's last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
• NY Mets is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing at home against NY Mets
• Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Mets

KANSAS CITY @ CHI WHITE SOX

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
• Chi White Sox is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games

TEXAS @ HOUSTON

• Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
• Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
• Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

ATLANTA @ MILWAUKEE

• Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games

OAKLAND @ MINNESOTA

• Oakland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
• Oakland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing at home against Oakland
• The total has gone OVER in 12 of Minnesota's last 16 games

CINCINNATI @ COLORADO

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 11 games on the road
• Colorado is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
• Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA

• Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
• Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Washington

MIAMI @ LA DODGERS

• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing LA Dodgers
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games on the road
• LA Dodgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
• LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

CLEVELAND @ SEATTLE

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Seattle
• Cleveland is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
• Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Cleveland

ST. LOUIS @ SAN DIEGO

• St. Louis is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
• San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
• San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

 

[mrpickem]

last few...

• 5/3.45 Dodgers -145
• 4/5.56 Dodgers -1½ +139 for Game
• 4/5.96 Orioles +149

Chasin



Chasin unders

Chasin overs

2-0 Saturday but nothing today

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
SUNDAY [7-11 -18.57u]

• 5/3.79 Reds -132
• 5/7.35 Reds -1½ +147
• 5/9.10 Diamondbacks +182
• 5/3.42 Cubs -146
• 5/7.75 Tigers +155
• 5/3.68 Tigers +1½ -136
• 5/4.76 White Sox -105
• 5/4.17 White Sox Team Total OVER 4½ -120
• 4/9.80 Rangers +245
• 5/4.76 Yankees / Rangers UNDER 8 -105
• 5/7.10 Angels -1½ +142
• 5/3.73 Angels -134

Pend;
CHC 1'
COL

randoms...

• White Sox TT O4½ ...ChiSox are 25-2 in their L27 games vs lefties, as they have been absolutely dominating them. They lead the majors in batting average, on base percentage and wrc+ against lefties. This specific lefty they are facing is J.A Happ. Happ was just recently lit up by this CHW line up last WED. In that start he went 3.1 inn and allowed 9 runs on 9 hits. The Sox went on to win that game by scoring 13 runs. They averaged over 8 runs a game against the twins in that series. Some of the White Sox best hitters have had a successful career vs Happ such as Jose Abreu who is 6 for 18 (.333) while facing him. Tim Anderson has been even better going 11 for 19 (.579) with two homers vs Happ. After the White Sox get through Happ, they should be able to score more runs against a Twins bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA and 24th in WHIP this season. Facing a lefty or not, the White Sox are great at generating offense as they are 3rd in batting average and 2nd in ops across the majors. They score the 5th most runs per game in the league at 5.16, so they really just need to have an average day to cash this team total.

​

 

[mrpickem]

more randoms...

Cincy -132 ...I'm liking this spot for the redlegs coming into this game. They just wrapped a long road trip and will be happy to be home again. They also have Gray on the mound—he has won his last five Monday starts. Cincy has been exceptional at opening the week on a strong note, going 7-0 in its L7 on Monday. The Giants are having to travel to Cincinnati after a road game on Sunday, so this is not an ideal spot for them. They have also struggled over the last few games and are feeling the pressure of their division lead slipping away.
The Reds season has been defined by a pair of long streaks. The Reds opened the season with a six-game winning streak that propelled them to 1st in the division. They then lost four of their next five games and added a separate seven-game losing skid in April. Cincy has been hovering around the .500 mark since then. They lost the first 2 in Colorado before winning the laast 2. They rely on an offense that ranks fifth in the MLB with a team batting average of .251

TRENDS​

SAN FRANCISCO @ CINCINNATI

• Cincinnati is 7-0 in its last seven Monday games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
• Cincinnati is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Francisco

NY METS @ ATLANTA

• NY Mets is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
• The total has gone OVER in 15 of NY Mets's last 22 games on the road
• Atlanta is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing NY Mets
• Atlanta is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against NY Mets

WASHINGTON @ CHI CUBS

• Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
• Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
• Chi Cubs is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
• Chi Cubs is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

CHI WHITE SOX @ MINNESOTA

• Chi White Sox is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
• Chi White Sox is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing Chi White Sox
• The total has gone OVER in 13 of Minnesota's last 17 games

NY YANKEES @ TEXAS

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games at home
• Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees

CLEVELAND @ LA ANGELS

• Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Angels
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing LA Angels
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Angels's last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland

ARIZONA @ LA DODGERS

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
• LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
• LA Dodgers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Arizona

COLORADO @ SAN DIEGO

• Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
• San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
• San Diego is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Colorado

DETROIT @ SEATTLE

• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
• Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
• Seattle is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit

 

[mrpickem]

Chasin report:

Chasin the Line
Sunday: 3-4
2021: 95-78 +0.6% ROI
2014-2021: 59.6% winners for +8.3% ROI
One play indicated today: Yankees



Chasin the Unders
Sunday: 2-0-1 (9-2-1 last 6 days..shown)
2021: 50-25-2 61.5% for +17.8% ROI
2014-2021: 59.1% winners for +13.2% ROI
One play indicated today: Yankees



Chasin the Overs
Sunday: 1-0 (5-1 last 4 days..shown)
2021: 30-26-4 53.6%% for +1.4% ROI
2014-2021: 56.2% winners for +7.7% ROI
No indicated plays today

 

[mrpickem]

last 2, let's rock

• 4/7.48 Rockies +187
• 5/6.60 Cubs -1½ +132

 

[gsro]

goodluck today pickem.

 

[mrpickem]

• 5/4.42 Indians / Angels UNDER 9½ -113
• 4/5.92 Mets +148

Mets +148 ...I get the Mets are very injured but considering how well Taijuan Walker has pitched with a 2.20 ERA / 2.96 FIP its a bit much. Fried will be better moving forward, but that Atlanta bullpen is not reliable at all, and the Braves haven't played particularly well in any facet this year. Not in love with the side as much as the number.
Indians / Angels U9½ ...Neither of these teams is scoring right now. Combined they average about 5 runs over the past five games. There are two lefties starting today and both teams hit worse against lefties. Angels park is more favorable for pitchers (though looks like wind might be blowing out today). Hentges has nice numbers. He hasn’t been going very deep into games, but Cleveland has the best bullpen ERA in baseball right now so that doesn’t worry me. Sandoval’s ERA is scary looking but the number is significantly lower when he pitches at home. All together I can really get behind the the under on this one.

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
MONDAY [11-5 +37.64u] :breakdance:

Action today:

• 5/5.50 Giants +110
• 4/7.72 Rockies +193
• 5/3.50 Rays -143
• 5/5.35 Rays -1½ +107
• 5/4.35 White Sox / Twins UNDER 8½ -115
• 5/7.75 Rangers +155
• 5/5.00 Yankees / Rangers OVER 9 +100
• 5/4.63 Indians / Angels UNDER 8 -108
• 5/5.50 Tigers +110

Pend;
AZ

 

[B.A.R.]

What a day yesterday

 

[mrpickem]

add

• 8.7/6 White Sox (L Lynn - R - Must Start) (B OBER - R - Must Start) -145

Really cant see this kid withh an 88 mph heater fairing well in his big league debut vs this sizzlin sox taem

https://twitter.com/x/status/1394726460246663174

Edit: Just went through every sarting pitcher debut game of 2021. Only 3 Wins out of 13 games. none over 5IP. Most we're relievers being thrown in as starters for rest games. Out of the true 1st game ever started in 2021 debut as a pitcher, they went 1/7 wins. That being Poteet(Mia) 3-2 win over Diamondbacks. Take that as you will. Wind blowing in from right field a bit. WAR SOX $$$
PS...rain very likely and could well be postponed

 

[mrpickem]

few more trend based smallish plays

• 2.5/2.19 Astros -114
• 2.5/2.88 White Sox -1½ +115
• 2.8/2.50 Angels -112
• 2.5/3.95 Royals +158

 

[mrpickem]

Chasin went 3-4 last nite with 4 for today




Chasin unders went 1-0 last nite with 2 tonight



Chasin overs none last night but 2 tonight

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
TUESDAY [6-8 -6.7u]

• 5/4.42 Padres -1½ -113
• 5/4.63 Rockies / Padres UNDER 7½ -108
• 5/4.20 Giants -119
• 4/4.56 Marlins +114
• 4/5.80 Cubs +145
• 5/4.85 Cardinals -1½ -103
• 6/2.94 Cardinals -204
• 5/4.07 Pirates / Cardinals UNDER 7½ -123
• 5/5.20 Red Sox +104
• 5/4.42 Red Sox / Jays OVER 10 -113
• 4/7.28 Athletics -1½ +182
• 5/5.05 Athletics +101
• 5/5.00 Tigers / Mariners OVER 8½ +100
• 5/4.42 Brewers / Royals UNDER 8 -113

Pend;
CHW 1'
ATL O

(CHASIN TUE: 5-1, UND 0-2, OV 1-0-1)
TODAY...
BOS
SL
SD
MIA
TOR O
CHC O




bonus

 

[mrpickem]

TRENDS​

CHI WHITE SOX @ MINNESOTA

• Chi White Sox is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
• Chi White Sox is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games

COLORADO @ SAN DIEGO

• Colorado is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 8 games when playing on the road against San Diego
• San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
• San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

SAN FRANCISCO @ CINCINNATI

• The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
• San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games

TAMPA BAY @ BALTIMORE

• Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• Tampa Bay is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

MIAMI @ PHILADELPHIA

• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games when playing Philadelphia
• Miami is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
• Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing Miami

NY METS @ ATLANTA

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
• NY Mets is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets

BOSTON @ TORONTO

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston's last 9 games
• Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
• Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

WASHINGTON @ CHI CUBS

• Washington is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Chi Cubs
• Washington is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
• Chi Cubs is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
• Chi Cubs is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

PITTSBURGH @ ST. LOUIS

• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
• St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
• St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

NY YANKEES @ TEXAS

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games at home

CLEVELAND @ LA ANGELS

• Cleveland is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Angels
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 7 games when playing Cleveland

MILWAUKEE @ KANSAS CITY

• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 9 games when playing Kansas City
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games

HOUSTON @ OAKLAND

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
• Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
• Oakland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

ARIZONA @ LA DODGERS

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
• Arizona is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing LA Dodgers
• LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
• LA Dodgers is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Arizona

DETROIT @ SEATTLE

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games
• Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
• Seattle is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Detroit
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Seattle's last 10 games at home

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 5/4.55 New York Mets / Braves OVER 7½ -110
• 5/5.00 Washington Nationals / Cubs OVER 9 +100
• 4/6.72 Mets +168
• 4/4.16 Rays +104
• 4/3.70 Rangers +1½ -108
• 4/4.44 Indian +111

randoms

White Sox -120 ... gonna try this again and hope LaRussa doesn't fuck it up..Shoemaker is getting crushed this season with a 6.62 ERA/6.75 FIP and a very high barrel rate. Giolito has not been good, but I have a lot more faith in him to turn it around, and he should get plenty of run support.
Mets +170 ...Even with half the Mets lineup in the hospital ward I think it's too much..New York has the significantly better bullpen so far, Morton probably getting a little unlucky to have an ERA of 5+ but still below average by FIP and after a down 2020 season he might just be getting old.
Astros -105 ...Both starters been pretty up and down..Montas diminishing strikeout rate is a little concerning but mostly I think the hotter Astros lineup will be the big difference, they've got 6 regulars at a 130 wRC+ or better plus Carlos Correa who is heating up

 

[mrpickem]

quite a few more qualifiers after all lines were posted and/or moved

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
WEDNESDAY [11-9-1 +7.95u]

• 5/3.07 Giants +1½ -163
• 5/2.63 Marlins +1½ -190
• 4/7.12 Pirates +178
• 5/4.07 Pirates / Braves UNDER 9 -123
• 5/4.42 Rays / Orioles OVER 9 -113
• 5/3.97 Yankees -126
• 5/5.25 Yankees / Rangers UNDER 8 +105

Pend;
LAD 1'

Lean;
TOR
LAD U
NYY TT O4

(CHASIN WED: 4-0/5-2, UND 1-1, OV 1-1)
TODAY...
TEX
ATL
ATL U
CHC U
TEX U
BAL O

randoms...

Rays / O's OVER 9 ...These two played to a total of 16 last night and 19 on Tuesday. I don’t see how tomorrow is going to be any different with these starters. Orioles will start Kramer who is 0-3 with an era of 5.81 while TB bats have been hot. Rays start Rich Hill who has an era of 4.26 and hasn't shown much for years.

TRENDS​

TAMPA BAY @ BALTIMORE

• Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• Tampa Bay is 14-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games

SAN FRANCISCO @ CINCINNATI

• San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
• San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing at home against San Francisco

NY YANKEES @ TEXAS

• NY Yankees is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 7 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games

WASHINGTON @ CHI CUBS

• The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Washington's last 16 games
• Washington is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Chi Cubs
• Chi Cubs is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
• Chi Cubs is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

HOUSTON @ OAKLAND

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
• The total has gone OVER in 9 of Oakland's last 11 games when playing Houston

MINNESOTA @ LA ANGELS

• Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Angels's last 11 games at home

MIAMI @ PHILADELPHIA

MIAMI​

• Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
• Miami is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
• Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games

PITTSBURGH @ ATLANTA

• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
• Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh

BOSTON @ TORONTO

• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Boston's last 13 games on the road
• Boston is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
• Toronto is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
• Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

MINNESOTA @ LA ANGELS

• Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Angels's last 11 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
• LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
• LA Dodgers is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Arizona

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 4/5.80 Orioles +145
• 5/5.25 Dodgers -1½ +105
• 5/3.76 Jays -133
• 5/5.50 Yankees Team Total OVER 4½ +110

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [6-5 +2.46u]

• 4/4.40 Reds +110
• 4/2.67 Reds +1½ -150
• 4/4.40 Cardinals +110
• 4/3.81 Pirates / Braves UNDER 8 -105
• 4/3.31 Astros -121
• 4/3.48 Astros / Rangers OVER 8½ -115
• 4/2.63 Royals -152
• 4/3.70 Athletics -108
• 4/2.04 Padres -196

Pend;
MIA
TB
CHW TT O4

Lean;
SF

(CHASIN THU: 0-2, UND 1-0, OV 2-2)
TODAY...
ATL U
CLE U

randoms...

• White Sox TT O4 ...CHW is 26-2 L28 games vs lefties, as they have been cruching them. The Sox lead the majors in batting average, on base percentage and wrc+ against lefties. This lefty; Jordan Montgomery last faced a relatively weak BAL lineup and he gave up 5 runs on 6 hits before getting pulled with 0 outs in the 4th. Since 2020 CHW have the 7th lowest whiff rate against lefties and lead the majors with a 10.8% barrel rate. They also lead the majors in xwOBA against lefties at .358. Facing a lefty or not, the White Sox are great at generating offense as they are 3rd in batting average and 2nd in ops across the majors. They score the 2nd most runs per game in the league at 5.29, so they really just need to have an average day. Last time a lefty started against them they put up 16 runs. I'm backing the TT at 4 or 4.5 when its posted.
• Friday totals are the outlier as they cash over the total 57% in the COVID era(since 2020 season). If you only look at games lined at 8 or more that number grows to 58.4% over the total for +10.6% ROI. Thurs is the only other day of week over 50% to the over at 53.7%...so I'm proclaiming Friday "Over" day :-D

 

[mrpickem]

TRENDS​

BALTIMORE @ WASHINGTON

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games
• Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Baltimore

CHI WHITE SOX @ NY YANKEES

• Chi White Sox is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
• NY Yankees is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

BOSTON @ PHILADELPHIA

• Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
• Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 10 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 13 games when playing Boston

MILWAUKEE @ CINCINNATI

• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Milwaukee's last 14 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
• Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
• Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee

MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND

• The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 9 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games
• Cleveland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
• Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

NY METS @ MIAMI

• NY Mets is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
• NY Mets is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
• Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Mets
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets

PITTSBURGH @ ATLANTA

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

TAMPA BAY @ TORONTO

• Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
• Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
• Toronto is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games at home

HOUSTON @ TEXAS

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
• Houston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games when playing Houston
• Texas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Houston

DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY

• The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Detroit's last 10 games when playing Kansas City
• Detroit is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
• The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City's last 10 games when playing Detroit
• Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

CHI CUBS @ ST. LOUIS

• Chi Cubs is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
• Chi Cubs is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
• St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs

ARIZONA @ COLORADO

• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
• Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 9 of Colorado's last 12 games at home

OAKLAND @ LA ANGELS

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
• Oakland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games
• LA Angels is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

LA DODGERS @ SAN FRANCISCO

• LA Dodgers is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
• LA Dodgers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
• San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
• San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

SEATTLE @ SAN DIEGO

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
• San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 4/3.81 Marlins -105
• 4/3.85 White Sox -104
• 4/4.20 White Sox Team Total OVER 4½ +105
• 4/3.25 Indians -123
• 4/2.68 Rays -149
• 4/4.08 Rays OVER 9 +102
• 3/5.22 Orioles +174
• 4/4.56 Giants +114

randoms...

• White Sox -104 ...Rodon finally had a shaky start last time out but he should be alright. The Sox have the better lineup especially against lefties, Montgomery is getting a little more back to his pre- Tommy John form which is ultimately about average and he will be challenged by this lineup tonight.
• Orioles +174 ...The Nats aren't really that good and who knows what you get from Strasburg who has made 4 starts since the start of 2020 with only one good one. Don't have anything nice to say about Jorge Lopez or the Orioles but their record isn't that much worse than Washington's and this is a huge number.
• Cardinals +110 ..I think Hendricks will probably be fine but he hasn't been good so far...this won't be an easy challenge. Martinez was generally pitching alright before going on the IL and is backed by some solid bullpen depth. I still think St Loo is the better team overall even with the Cubs recent success.

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [7-10 -15.95u]

• 4/3.77 Cardinals -106
• 6/3.19 Astros -188
• 6/3.73 Indians -161
• 5/4.63 Twins / Indians UNDER 7½ -108
• 5/5.25 Rays +105
• 4/5.76 Orioles +144
• 5/4.24 Orioles / Nationals UNDER 9½ -118

Pend;
MIL 1'
PIT
SEA 1'
OAK

Lean;
NYY
SF

(CHASIN FRI: 1-1, UND 0-1, OV 0-0)
TODAY...
CLE
BAL
HOU
NYY
CLE U
WAS O

randoms...

Friday "over" day was 11-4 to the over in all games and 9-3 in games >=8 total

TRENDS​

CHI WHITE SOX @ NY YANKEES

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi White Sox's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
• Chi White Sox is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 7 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
• NY Yankees is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home

ARIZONA @ COLORADO

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
• Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
• Colorado is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games

BALTIMORE @ WASHINGTON

• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baltimore's last 8 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games at home
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore

HOUSTON @ TEXAS

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games when playing Houston
• Texas is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Houston

MILWAUKEE @ CINCINNATI

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games on the road
• Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
• Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee

MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND

• The total has gone OVER in 9 of Minnesota's last 10 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
• Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota

NY METS @ MIAMI

• NY Mets is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
• NY Mets is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
• Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Mets
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Mets

DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY

• Detroit is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
• Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Kansas City's last 17 games when playing Detroit
• Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

PITTSBURGH @ ATLANTA

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

LA DODGERS @ SAN FRANCISCO

• LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• LA Dodgers is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
• San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
• San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

BOSTON @ PHILADELPHIA

• Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
• Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 11 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 14 games when playing Boston

CHI CUBS @ ST. LOUIS

• Chi Cubs is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
• Chi Cubs is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
• St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

TAMPA BAY @ TORONTO

• Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
• Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home

SEATTLE @ SAN DIEGO

• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Diego
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
• San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
• San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

OAKLAND @ LA ANGELS

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
• Oakland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Angels's last 7 games
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games at home

 

[mrpickem]

adding...

• 4/6.96 Pirates +174
• 6/3.02 Yankees -199
• 5/5.25 Yankees -1½ +105
• 6/3.87 Brewers +1½ -155
• 5/3.68 Athletics -136
• 5/4.17 Mariners +1½ -120
• 3/3.30 Rays +110 for 1st 5 Innings
• 4/6.16 Rays -1½ +154 RRL

Lean;
SF

(CHASIN FRI: 1-1, UND 0-1, OV 0-0)
TODAY...
LAD
CLE
BAL
HOU
NYY
CLE U
WAS O
ATL O

randoms...

• Rays -1.5 +154 ...Rays currently on an 8 game win streak during which the total runs vs allowed are 72-30. They are simply outplaying opponents massively on both sides of the ball. They have airtight defense, and I'm too lazy to calculate the exact numbers but they have an ERA for both overall and the bullpen that's a low 2 in May. Taylor Walls is all around a significantly better player than Adames in my opinion as a Rays fan(.976 OPS in AAA). The only reason I can see the Rays being slight dogs today is the ERAs of the starting pitchers. McClanahan has a 4.67 ERA to Robbie Ray's 3.79 and the Ray's have some struggles against left handed pitchers. I doubt this will be too big of an issue though as McClanahan is ranked 46th according to The List 5/17: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2021 - Week 8 - Pitcher List and that ranking is heavily backed by some advanced statistics such as his xFIP and SIERA (3.06 and 3.20 respectively). Would honestly be fairly surprised if the Rays came out of the 5th inning without a lead considering how hot they have been recently as well as how nasty McClanahan's stuff looks at least with the eye test(Fastball that averages 97.4, 4 pitch arsenal with a really nasty slider in particular). Let's go!

 

[mrpickem]

Chasin the Line

7+ year total for all Chasin games shows 58.8% wins for 596.97u at +7.8% ROI



However if you limit favorites to -300 af the most and dog +175 or less, then

Win % increases to 59.7% but you lose a few units to +582.06u and the ROI grows to +8.3%



Personally I think since you're only losing ~3% of total profit while increasing win % and ROI by decent percentages, I will use these line parameters moving forward.

:cheers3:

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [8-6-1 +5.73u]

• 5/4.07 Pirates +1½ -123
• 5/5.85 Rockies -1½ +117
• 5/3.68 Rockies -136
• 5/6.05 Giants +121
• 5/3.52 Giants +1½ -142
• 5/4.76 Dodgers / Giants UNDER 7½ -105
• 5/3.91 Cardinals -128
• 5/4.55 Pirates / Braves UNDER 8½ -110
• 5/5.85 White Sox +117
• 5/4.76 Twins / Indians OVER 9 -105
• 4/5.68 Athletics -1½ +142
• 5/4.07 Orioles / Nationals under 9½ -123
• 4/6.68 Rays +167
• 5/4.17 Rays / Blue Jays OVER 9 -120
• 5/5.25 Red Sox / Phillies UNDER 8 +105

Pend;
*SD & 1' & U

Lean;
CLE
BOS

(CHASIN SAT: 3-2, UND 0-1, OV 1-1)
TODAY...
LAA
PIT
SF
MIN
WAS
SD
CHW
ATL U
PHI U
CLE O
NYY O

RANDOMS...

• Brewers F5 ...Brewers currently in ohio finishing a series. Today they face Castillo, who is one of the least profitable F5 pitchers with an F5 record of 2-6-1. He was the 4th least profitable pitcher in the MLB in terms of the F5 ML. This could be due to his 7.44 ERA and 1-6 record this season. He has at least 3 earned runs in 7 out of 9 starts, and has been responsible for disasters as well as two of those starts resulted in 8 earned runs. I expect MIL to lead by at least one after 5 as they have been a relatively solid F5 team on the road with a record of 9-7-5. The Reds have the overall worst F5 record in the league at 13-21-7. The MIL also has a strong starter on the mound in Freddy Peralta who has a 2.40 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. He has not allowed a run in his last two starts in which he lasted 13 innings total, so i wouldn't expect the Reds to put up any big numbers. I'll be backing MIL FF ML

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 5/4.17 Padres -1½ -120
• 6/2.28 Padres -263
• 5/5.00 Mariners / Padres UNDER 7 +100
• 6/4.29 Indians -140
• 5/6.00 Red Sox +120

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 5/5.75 Brewers -½ +115 for 1st 5 Innings
• 5/4.24 Brewers / Reds OVER 8 -118
• 5/5.10 Astros -1½ +102

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [9-13-1 -24.72u]

• 5/4.20 Marlins -119
• 5/4.90 Padres -102
• 5/4.76 Rays / Blue Jays OVER 10½ -105
• 5/4.85 Orioles -103
• 5/5.00 Orioles / Twins OVER 9 +100
• 5/6.00 Athletics -1½ +120
• 5/3.38 Athletics -148
• 5/6.35 White Sox -1½ +127
• 5/5.00 Cardinals / White Sox UNDER 8 +100

Pend;
SD 1'

(CHASIN SUN: 5-3, UND 1-0, OV 1-1)
TODAY...
OAK
LAA
CHW U
TOR O

RANDOMS...

• Rays TT OVER 5 ...Rays are on fire, they have won their last 10 in a row, and have scored at least 6 runs in 8 out the L10. They are closing out a series against Toronto going for a sweep and have scored at least 6 runs in 2 out of 3 games. This scoring is due to the fact that they are raking against righties lately. Over the last 10 days they lead the majors in OPS against right handers at .955 the right hander they are facing tomorrow is Ross Stripling who has a 7.20 ERA and is 0-3 on the season. he is coming off a rough start where he did not make it through 4 innings and gave up 6 runs on 8 hits. Expect players such as Margot to have a great day at the plate, as he has a .462 average with two home runs and two doubles in 13 plate appearances against Stripling. The Jays bullpen has also been subpar lately, giving up 16 runs over the last 4 games, 3 of those games were against these rays. 5 is a big number but I'm backing the Rays to rake as they are averaging 7 runs over their last 3 against this team.

Trends

Baltimore:	Over is 9-1 in BAL last 10 overall. Over is 9-1 in BAL last 10 on grass. Over is 8-1 in BAL last 9 games following a loss.
Minnesota:	Over is 13-2-1 in MIN last 16 games as a favorite. Over is 20-5-1 in MIN last 26 overall. Over is 20-5-1 in MIN last 26 on grass.

Chi. White Sox:	CHW are 6-2 in their last 8 Mon. games. CHW are 43-17 in their last 60 games as a favorite. CHW are 30-12 in their last 42 home games.

 

[Inspekdah]

GL. Probably ride that early over with you!

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 5/4.76 Rays Team Total OVER 5½ -105
• 6/4.00 Tigers -150 for 1st 5 Innings

Tigers -150 FF ...As someone who watched the entire no-hitter from Spencer Turnbull's last game, I can tell you he's built differently right now. His FIP of 2.77 backs up his juicy WHIP of 0.96 and ERA of 2.88. The opponent Sam Hentges, on the other hand, is built fragilely. Because of the lack of minors in 2020, checking his stats back to 2019, he pitched an underwhelming 5.11 ERA over 26 starts. Although he had a decent K:BB ratio in minor league career, his rather abrupt transition to MLB has not done any favors for his stats. Currently, he's got an ERA of 6.46 with an even more abysmal FIP of 7.19, so he hasn't been unlucky either. I also don't like his nearly 2 homers per 9 innings, even if Comerica is one of the deeper parks. His last start? Went 1.2 innings, giving up 6 runs, 3 walks, to only 1 K. Are the Tigers offense worth a fuck...Hell no! Do I think the Indians offense is any better, at 29th in AVG and OBP? HELL NO. All in all, from the eye test of Turnbull lately, as well as the supporting data, I believe there is good value in this spread and confidently believe the Tigers will be ahead or at least tied by the end of the 5th, as Hentges shouldn't last long and is significantly worse than his supporting bullpen.​

 

[AtlHawks]

I will take 5 in the 1st :cheers3:

 

[AtlHawks]

And 1 in the 10th

:danceparty:

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [7-4 +14.07u]

• 5/4.07 Marlins -123
• 6/3.57 Nationals -168
• 5/4.85 Reds / Nationals UNDER 7½ -103
• 7/2.76 Mets -254
• 5/3.07 Giants -163
• 6/3.70 Yankees 162
• 4/7.48 Orioles +187
• 6/3.80 Athletics -158
• 5/4.85 Mariners / Athletics OVER 8½ -103
• 5/4.35 Braves -115

Strange, but I got a lot of indicators on (AZ & 1', BOS) but went other way based on more data I liked better...will be interesting to see how they pend out.

Pend;
MIL 1'
PIT 1'

Lean;

(CHASIN MON: 1-1, UND 2-0, OV 1-0)
TODAY...
NYM
SL
WAS U
OAK O

RANDOMS...

• SF F5 ML ...The Giants face the D-backs tonight, one of the worst teams in the majors lately. They are 1-9 in their last 10 (2-7-1 F5 in these games) A big part of this could be due to their .566 OPS over the last 7 days, which ranks 28th in the league. The Giants meanwhile are in the top half of the league in this same span. AZ also has a .183 batting average over the past 7 days which is 27th in the league and have 35 hits over the last week which is 27th in the MLB. In this same span they are bottom 5 across the majors in OBP, slugging, home runs, and RBIs. This lineup will struggle more vs Gausman who is the 2nd most profitable F5 ML pitcher with a 7-1-1 record. The Giants are one of the best F5 teams in general with a record of 26-14-7. Gausman has been unreal this season with an ERA of 1.66. He's given up 1 run in 4 of his last 6 starts, while giving up no runs in the other 2. Two of those runs were scored after the 5th. Corbin Martin starts for zona and has only had one start this year and is already 0-1 as he lasted 5 innings while giving up 3 runs on 4 hits. He didn't pitch in 2020 and did not have a great 2019 as he had a 5.59 ERA in just 19.1 IP. I doubt he has a great game or gets any run support, so I'm back SF F5 as POD

SF 19-7 RL this year.​

SF 23-16 (+15u) vs lefties since last year.​

SF 11-3 in L14 on TUE​

AZ 7-19 in L26 overall.​

​

PHI 3-7 in their last 10 Tue. games.​

PHI 19-40 in their last 59 road games.​

MIA 8-3 in their last 11 home games.​

Over 5-2-1 in Alcantaras last 8 on grass.​

​

COL 3-14 in Freelands last 17 road starts.​

NYM 8-2 in their last 10 games as a favorite.​

Under 15-4-2 in NYM last 21 home games.​

NYM 6-2 in their last 8 Tue. games.​

​

NYY 11-4 SU & 12-3 RL this year on TUE​

NYY 16-5 in L21 after a win​

NYY 22-8 in L30 overall​

NYY 5-0 in Kluber'S L5 (35ip / 21 H / 8 ER)​

​

SEA 9-19 in L27 overall​

SEA 1-7 in L8 road games​

OAK 16-7 in L23 games as fav​

OAK 24-11 SU vs lefties since last year​

​

BOS 14-3 in L17 games as dog​

BOS 8-2 in L10 Tue. games​

BOS 77-36 in L113 interleague games​

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 2.5/2 Giants -½ -125 for 1st 5 Innings
• 4/2.16 Giants -185 for 1st 5 Innings
• 4/7.40 Brewers -1½ +185
• 5/4.00 Pirates +1½ -125

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [7-7 -12.06u]

• 6/3.68 Reds +1½ -163
• 5/5.95 Rockies +119
• 4/5.60 Giants -1½ +140
• 5/4.42 Jays / Yankees UNDER 9½ -113
• 5/5.10 Rays -1½ +102
• 5/5.00 Orioles / Twins UNDER 9 +100
• 5/4.42 Cardinals / White Sox UNDER 8½ -113
• 5/4.35 Red Sox -115
• 5/3.73 Dodgers -134

Pend;
MIN F5 ML


(CHASIN MON: 1-1, UND 1-0, OV 0-1)
TODAY...
TEX
AZ
COL
CIN
TB
CHW
MIL O
WAS O


RANDOMS...

• Twins F5 ML ...Twinks face righty Jorge Lopez today at home. Lopez is one of the least profitable F5 pitchers in the majors with an F5 record of 1-6-2. Probably due to his 6.00 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. He has only made it past the 5th in 3 of 9 starts. Thats good news for MIN as the Balty bullpen is subpar with the 21st ranked ERA in the league. Lopez faces a Twins lineup that over the last 15 days against righties ranks top 5 in the majors in hits, runs, RBI,and home runs. The O's lineup has been struggling against right handers lately, placing in the bottom half of the majors in all of these categories over the last 15 days. Baltimore in general is not a great F5 team going 3-6-1 in their last 10 and 16-22-9 on the season. The Twins also have a solid starter on the bump in Michael Pineda who has a 3.97 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. I can see the Twins getting out to an early lead, if you want better value I recommend the RL but i like the ML just because there's opportunity for a push...may split half/half depending on the numbers..not posted yet on any of my 3 books

 

[mrpickem]

adds

• 3/2.31 Twins -½ -130 for 1st 5 Innings
• 4/2.16 Twins -185 for 1st 5 Innings

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [3-4-4 -2.23u]

• 5/3.70 Cubs -135
• 6/3.49 Indians -172
• 5/6.60 Angels +132
• 6/2.67 White Sox -225

(CHASIN WED: 1-3, UND 1-0, OV 1-1)
TODAY...
CIN
KC
CLE
CHW


RANDOMS...

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 4/6.48 Royals +162
• 4/2.96 Cubs -135
• 5/4.35 Padres -115

RANDOMS...

• Padres -110 ...Houser is god awful and the Pads have the bullpen edge. It seems like a cheap price considering Houser is in the bottom percentile of most pitching stats. Weathers isn't great himself but if he can give the Padres 3 good innings, the bullpen backing him should be able to shut down this offense which has only scored 1 run in the past two games.
• Royals +165 ...Singer is a better pitcher than his stats indicate. He pitches to soft contact but he doesn't have a high K rate and he has an average walk rate. McClanahan is the opposite, as he primarily a fastball pitcher who has a pretty high K rate and a decent walk rate. However, he gives up a lot of hard contact and the Royals have a WRC+ of 100 against lefties, above the league average. The price seems good enough to back the Royals and Singer, who if he can limit the walks should be able to keep the royals in the game. Bullpen edge slightly favors the Rays so if you want to go with F5, I wouldn't stop you.

CHC 18-7 vs lefties since 2020 +10.8u

 

[mrpickem]

---- MLB ----
YESTERDAY [4-2-1 +2.73u]

So Ohtani getting caught in traffic and missing the start cost me a loss
All my plays are listed unless otherwise noted, like last year 5D had action only due to COVID but this year I play everything listed, well 90% or more

• 5/3.31 Cubs -151
• 4/4.40 Brewers / Nationals OVER 9½ +110
• 4/4.20 Cardinals / Diamondbacks OVER 9½ +105
• 5/2.79 Dodgers -179
• 6/2.64 Yankees -227
• 4/2.96 Yankees -1½ -135
• 3/4.50 Rockies -1½ +150
• 5/3.27 Blue Jays -153
• 4/4.20 Blue Jays -1½ +105
• 4/5.36 Royals +134
• 4/4.00 Royals / Twins OVER 8½ +100
• 6/2.79 White Sox -215
• 4/4.28 Orioles / White Sox OVER 9 +107
• 4/3.64 Rangers / Mariners OVER 8½ -110
• 4/3.81 Marlins / Red Sox OVER 9 -105
• 4/4.20 Padres / Astros OVER 8½ +105

CHASIN LINE YESTERDAY 4-2, UNDER 0-1, OVER 0-0)
TODAY...
LAA
MIL
KC
COL
WAS O


RANDOMS...

CIN 13-3 in L16 Fri. games
CHC 8-1 in L9 games as a fav
CHC 8-2 in L10 home games
CIN 17-37 in L54 at Chicago
CHC best home bet this year +7.3u (16-9)
CHI 54-32 in FRI DAY games since 2014

Under 22-10 in MIL L32 away
Under 6-2-1 in Andersons L9
Under 17-4 in WAS L21 home
Under 24-9-3 in WAS L36
This sets up too easy for under, play over or stay away

SF 7-1 in L8 road games
Over 11-3 in SF L14 games as dog
LAD 42-13 in L55 home games
Over 18-7-2 in LAD L27 Fri. games
LAD 19-7 L26 meetings
SF RunLine #1 best bet on season at 33-17 +19.2u
LAD 6-2 SU and 5-3 RL vs Gints in Fri-Home games since '14 KillerSports.com
Buehler > improved Desclafani

NYY 31-18 to UNDER on season(league best)
Under 7-1 in NYY L8
Under 6-2-1 in DET L9 @home
DET 14-39 L53 Fri games
DET 35-83 L118 @home
Over 8-2-1 L11 meetings in Detroit
NYY 11-4 L15 meetings in Detroit
Since 2000 NYY 8-0 SU & RL vs DET on FRI @home KillerSports.com
Huge starter mismatch but Mize has looked better than advertised

CHW 46-18 L64 as fav
BAL 6-18 SU and 8-16 RL this season @home
BAL 6-20 overall last 30 days

MIN on season 20-29 ML & 18-31 RL both league best profit to fade
MIN 32-16 to OVER on season (league best)
Over 22-6-1 in MIN L29 overall
Over 15-5-1 in MIN L21 as fav
KC 3-8 L11 road games
KC 7-16 L23 overall

BOS 8-3 L11 after win
MIA 3-13 L16 meetings in BOS
MIA 7-20 L27 meetings

SD 8-1 L9 after a loss
SD 11-2 L11 overall
SD 12-3 L15 FRI games
SD 20-7 L27 interleague games
SD/HOU combined L10 are 15-5 to OVER

 

[mrpickem]

Like I mentioned last week...Friday is ver" day as overs have cashed almost 60% since last year including 9-3 last Friday. Seems to setup well this week with mostly 3rd or 4th level starters going as well as 2-3 making first start of the year. This only includes games with totals of at least 8 to eliminate special situations. If you're wondering, this has performed even better for 2021 only at 59.5% wins / 14.2% ROI albeit slightly

 

[inZane]

Thanks for your posts Mr. P.

Do you ever figure in weather conditions with your picks? I see there's a few games that have temps in the 40's with drizzle and some pretty decent winds blowing in today.

 

[mrpickem]

Thanks for your posts Mr. P.

Do you ever figure in weather conditions with your picks? I see there's a few games that have temps in the 40's with drizzle and some pretty decent winds blowing in today.

Usually I do, but I didn't look today. Usually totals are sharply adjusted for temp/wind but I will back track with weather in mind. Thanks :shake: