Matchday 2 Discussion

GWarner27

GWarner27

Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
We ought to see a bunch of the best teams in the world angry after performing poorly in their openers, which sounds very scary to me as someone who lives on the underdog side of life.

My first interest was Peru as I was very impressed by them and thought they deserved at worst a result vs DEN. However, they lost because they lacked balance on an attack and that sounds like a nightmare vs the talent of FRA.

Queiroz had IRAN play so disciplined in the opener, but running into ESP who blew their three points on a bad foul and an incredible set piece that followed is unfortunate. ESP should be out for blood and I have no faith in Iran to score so they'd have to hold a furious Furia Roja to a single goal for 95 minutes, which is even less likely when ESP will be pushing forward until they have the game more than in hand.

Croatia won thanks to their defense, offense didn't do much and i think that got lost in the shuffle because they won so easily. A lot of me thinks that was more NGR being bad than CRO being great, which works along the same lines of my theory that CRO will never put it together. They have so much talent, but have not done much with it and until they do it's hard to trust them. On the other hand, ARG should be livid with their draw. A lot of me wonders if they are terrible defensively, CRO should have a fair amount of possession and ISL had great success with very little. The defense is old, GK is weak and Messi commands dominant lines despite his poor international performances.

SRB-SUI is a battle for advancement plain and simple. SRB probably thought it did more than hold serve with the win vs CRC, but the SUI draw with the tournament's favorite has completely soured that accomplishment. SRB now probably is concerned that they didn't defeat the bottom of the group by more, knowing they are in trouble if it comes down to goal differential. That should put a solid offensive team even more on its front foot, which SUI should be prepared for as they've always been a defensive team who eyes winning on the counter-attack. If you're SUI, you gotta think a result here puts you through when considering BRA smacking SRB around on Matchday 3 while they finish with the bottom. I don't think that leads to parking the bus for 90 minutes, but I'm not sure they overexpose their attack despite seeing three-points as a near guaranteed advancement because a result is likely to be enough.

Leans:
Peru +1
Iran +2
CRO +0.5
SRB pk
 
GWarner27 said:
We ought to see a bunch of the best teams in the world angry after performing poorly in their openers, which sounds very scary to me as someone who lives on the underdog side of life.

My first interest was Peru as I was very impressed by them and thought they deserved at worst a result vs DEN. However, they lost because they lacked balance on an attack and that sounds like a nightmare vs the talent of FRA.

Queiroz had IRAN play so disciplined in the opener, but running into ESP who blew their three points on a bad foul and an incredible set piece that followed is unfortunate. ESP should be out for blood and I have no faith in Iran to score so they'd have to hold a furious Furia Roja to a single goal for 95 minutes, which is even less likely when ESP will be pushing forward until they have the game more than in hand.

Croatia won thanks to their defense, offense didn't do much and i think that got lost in the shuffle because they won so easily. A lot of me thinks that was more NGR being bad than CRO being great, which works along the same lines of my theory that CRO will never put it together. They have so much talent, but have not done much with it and until they do it's hard to trust them. On the other hand, ARG should be livid with their draw. A lot of me wonders if they are terrible defensively, CRO should have a fair amount of possession and ISL had great success with very little. The defense is old, GK is weak and Messi commands dominant lines despite his poor international performances.

SRB-SUI is a battle for advancement plain and simple. SRB probably thought it did more than hold serve with the win vs CRC, but the SUI draw with the tournament's favorite has completely soured that accomplishment. SRB now probably is concerned that they didn't defeat the bottom of the group by more, knowing they are in trouble if it comes down to goal differential. That should put a solid offensive team even more on its front foot, which SUI should be prepared for as they've always been a defensive team who eyes winning on the counter-attack. If you're SUI, you gotta think a result here puts you through when considering BRA smacking SRB around on Matchday 3 while they finish with the bottom. I don't think that leads to parking the bus for 90 minutes, but I'm not sure they overexpose their attack despite seeing three-points as a near guaranteed advancement because a result is likely to be enough.

Leans:
Peru +1
Iran +2
CRO +0.5
SRB pk
Click to expand...


I was thinking the exact same thing my friend.

In particular I was thinking what is the (KEY)

Find the correct key and find the Winner.

A key is a single fact or piece of information that when analyzed will lead you to the WHY a certain result happened.

KEY- As you eloquently pointed out certain favorited who didn’t perform well in game 1 like Germans Spain and Brazil will be out for a rebound.

Brazil today wasn’t overly focussed. They showed up and played, they had a player on the bench practicing his dance moves during the game!!!

What is the Key?

1- Don’t read too much into game 1- Look at the performance and potential.
Spain tied 3-3 gave up 2 weird goals but on offense the Ball was moving fast. Like fast like old Barcelona before Messi and xavi got old.

2- Sometimes it isn’t your night. Things don’t always go your way in soccer. Spain out played Portugal in the opener. Brazil totally outplayed Swiss in the last 20/25 minutes showing their class.
I didn’t watch Germany but assuming they outplayed Mexico I’m assuming?
 
Key- Doninant teams can be scored on these days!

What’s up with ball possession teams dominating the match but giving up easy goals?
Spain looked very weak in the Portugal goals.

This Swiss goal wasn’t magic. Bad Brazil defense.

I’m noticing the supposed elite teams are not strong at the back. It almost looks to me that since they aren’t defending much they lose focus on defense.
De gea misplay on Ronaldo’s shot proved he was bored in nets.

How many shots did the Brazil goalie stop?

I thin the elite teams need to focus more on defense.
They seem to be lackadaisical on defense and the opponents seem to score on the only shot they get during a half.
 
I don’t see any angle on betting any of the 2 games in Group A , maybe a flyer on Egypt ML??

-Group B is tough as well, but Morocco really pushed up against Iran leaving them exposed a lot , And they absolutely need a result probably a win so will we see more of the same? Leaning over

Group C- think Croatia presents problems for Argentina defensively, but I don’t know if they are as disciplined defensively as Iceland . I kinda feel like Messi is going have more room to operate In this one .lean Argentina ml.
I don’t think Iceland can play any other way then how they did on Saturday , but they probably need a win here, maybe a -1/4 handicap

Group D- I’ll be on Both dogs I’m pretty sure

Group E - Costa Rica seem very unlikely to get any results , and I’m not sure they even score . I wish I would have taken their group points under bet. Serbia are ok, but they just aren’t disciplined enough for my liking to get results against quality teams . Swiss / Serbia under seems like a decent bet

Group F- Mexico is not getting 9 pts and they are not a lock to win this group , when Low said Germany will still advance , he is right they will and they still may win this group. Mexico’s gameplan was outstanding , they pulled Kroos up high leaving acres of space in the middle and Lozano just wrecked them . My worry for Germany is there are no less than 10 teams in this tourney who have wingers like Lozano ( a lot of teams with better and on both sides ) . SK and Sweden don’t , but I’d have concerns if I was a Germany fan about advancing far. They gotta consider having their CMs deeper against higher quality teams . They also could not really unlock Mexico in the second half . Low got out coached at least in the first half of this one

Anyone that knows about Osorio is that he is the ultimate tinkerer , he just loves to change lineups . Im still not convinced he won’t fuck this up . I gotta see what Sweden and SK have to offer , but I’m prolly going be against Mexico in their next game
 
bravos you flipped C and D i think, but thanks. I think GER still wins the group, but they will need help now and who knows how that shakes out. I expect their advancement odds to still be ridiculously high, but there could be some value in that as I think MEX was a perfect storm (though I do think we should drop GER PRs a bit for that all-around disaster of a performance)

Forgot i'm on EGY +0.25 and really hope Salah is in the starting lineup or else the +107 i got is going to be like +130 and i'm gonna be in trouble
 
Last 4 teams to win World Cup have not qualified out of the group stage.

Not sure if Germany will follow suit here.

With Tom cruise as Germany manager anything is possible.
 
As I mentioned Germany is very deep team.

But playing vs quicker smaller teams with fast guys like 5’6 5’7 has been a disadvantage to Germany.

Germany has lots of bigger guys who are tall and physical. They are fast also but NOT QUICK.

the Mexican goal the smaller Mexican guy turned in a dime and fired a shot last Meier.

I find that this is an issue for teams.

I think Germany should field a smaller quicker lineup. Get rid of Meuller and field a lineup with a bunch of speedsters between 5’5 to 5’7.
 
Yeah, I mean to be fair it wasn’t like they drew and lost against Saudi Arabia.

I think Swiss, Portugal , and Mexico are top 15ish teams ( Portugal probably top 10)
 
How did Germany not look bad? No order in defense. Couldn‘t even see the final pass much less execute it (Werner sucks on this level)
 
i agree GER looked bad, but i think MEX is pretty adept and they had lots of opportunities. Neuer and his defense have something to say about keeping their GD at only -1
 
with the accumulation of 2 yellow cards and you are out next the next match going be interesting to see how many of these managers rotate squads

This doesn’t reset until semifinals , which is just ridiculous

I saw Vertonghen picked up 1 for Belgium, Walker for England any other big names out there who are sitting on 1?

Germany has a couple, Mexico, Croatia, Spain-Busquets, Swiss
 
Last edited:
After seeing Swedes /SK highlights and reading on the game today, I think Germany fans can breathe a little easier , should be 6 pts for them
 
GWarner27 said:
i agree GER looked bad, but i think MEX is pretty adept and they had lots of opportunities. Neuer and his defense have something to say about keeping their GD at only -1
Click to expand...

I think they will be fine , I don’t think they will be fine if they have to play Brazil in the first stage of the knockout rounds , but I’d love to see the matchup
 
braves said:
with the accumulation of 2 yellow cards and you are out next the next match going be interesting to see how many of these managers rotate squads

This doesn’t reset until semifinals , which is just ridiculous

I saw Vertonghen picked up 1 for Belgium, Walker for England any other big names out there who are sitting on 1?

Germany has a couple, Mexico, Croatia, Spain-Busquets, Swiss
Click to expand...

explains why KDB was so angry
 
I think everyone is basically correct about Germany.

1. They were outcoached for a half. Germany should have found a way to be a little more conservative after Mexico failed on several other quality chances on the counterattack before they finally converted (deservedly so). He should have found a way to get a message into his team to adjust to that. It didn't happen. You could see throughout the game (not just after the goal when Mexico went into a complete shell) Germany was going to control the ball in standard alignments. They just needed to prevent the counter.
2. Germans were slower than the Mexicans. The back was particularly lazy about aggressively running to balls and aggressively challenging the Mexicans in space. Made it too easy for them on the counters.
3. Germany looked bad but they weren't awful .. which is basically the argument between Sammy and GW. I thought of all the quality teams (allegedly), I thought Germany played the worst, along with France. I just got the feeling that France has a better shot at finishing.
4. Germany appears to lack a great finisher to the eye of this casual fan. They were trying to be too cute ... spent all that time in the box and had only a handful of real chances. That is hard to do with that amount of ball possession in that area of the field where the defenders (all be it many of them) can't even challenge you the way they can in the midfield. The Germans had no one who seemed to want to put it on net.
5. Someone made the point of Germany needing to get smaller and faster. Eh. I think they have proven they are fast enough but they really pushed forward from the midfield and back and left themselves vulnerable. They did short corners the whole game which was really bizarre considering their height advantage. Again, it's almost like they lack confidence in anyone finishing, which they shouldn't I assume (but again don't follow close enough).
6. Mexicans owned that stadium and Germany has bad history on Russian soil. I was a bit shocked that the defending champs were so outnumbered in Moscow. Probably rich Americans and friends of Donovan with a few rich drug cartel guys and some paid off Mexican Federales in the stands cheering for Mexico.
7. Their next two opponents are dog poo. They should advance.
8. The final of that game should have been somewhere in the range of 1-1 to 3-0 Mexico. The 1-0 finish was not as bad as it could have been for Germany.
9. You can't just go through the motions when the other team has a lot of emotions. Just cannot. You have to try just as hard as they do. These are not bums, particularly the Mexican team but even the lessers they play in the next two. You have to match the intensity. Germany not a country that traditionally plays with an entitled, lazy attitude but it sure looked like it to me.
 
1 disagree about going into a shell. Seems to me that the underdogs know they're underdogs and go ultra-conservative late in games if they have a result in hand, but MEX still tried to score (just less of an effort forward)
4 don't think they have a goalscorer
5 should have used the air (yes, tougher), but never adjusted and instead Low just hoped they'd find a goal
9 don't think it was lacking emotion, just think they were too proud and overlooked MEX a bit

everything else was pretty well said
 
I wouldn't be in a hurry to fade the Croats. I thought they were as dominant as any team I watched. I think they can play loosely in this game with a +2 in the opener, while Argentina might be gripping a bit. I would be disappointed were I the Argentinian players, so not judging them, but their body language at the end of that game was not pleasant. A ton of pressure on the coach, a ton of pressure on their star, a lot of pressure on their keeper, and i think croatia is capable of putting some pressure on their back line (which from what the better soccer guys say, might be a little on the weak side). Croatia defense is not an easy nut to crack and I could see Argentina getting frustrated .. also thought Croatia looked good on the counter attack in their last game and that could come into play as well. They just need a result here to advance most likely. Argentina the better club but there isn't a huge gap here. In some of these games, I think the pressure works for the favorite because they can afford to take chances against lessers but here, it could get dicey for Argentina. Maybe Nigeria is just that bad but that game was complete domination. I get wanting to back Argentina but I dunno at the same time.
 
I would like to ask you guys traditionally how the loser of a 0-5 result approaches the second game when they are the lesser team.
 
I mean, you have to go for the win given Uruguay has 3.

Russia 3
Uruguay 3
Egypt 0
SA 0

Without a win .... if you draw .... you need egypt to beat Russia and then beat Egypt while Russia and Uruguay don't take the ungentlemanly draw.

Seems a tough road. So do you go all out aggressive at the beginning and park it if you score first .. or just park it and pray for a result? Maybe you don't have a ton of choice given opponent?

Just curious what the general consensus strategy is
 
vk said:
I would like to ask you guys traditionally how the loser of a 0-5 result approaches the second game when they are the lesser team.
Click to expand...

my guess is they play as they would because they don't want to finish the tournament with the worst GD in its history. Part of me wanted to say they try to win, but I think they realize (now more than ever) that they are outclassed and will try to win a defensive game
 
Have to think they will try to stay more organized defensively than the 1st game and hope to keep the 0-0 as long as possible and then get lucky on a counter/corner/free kick. They had so many weaknesses I don't think they have a chance doing that.

But it's always better than going all out and leaving all kind of space for the quick Uruguayans to pick them apart with ease.

Either way they choose to set up I think Uruguay win convincingly
 
The group C matches are the most compelling to me. Thought Australia played very well against France and were a bit unfortunate to not get the draw, though they were outplayed on the whole. I thought Denmark were the luckiest team in round 1. So it makes for an interesting set up in that game ... and meanwhile, France looked a little sketchy compared to what I expected while Peru played really well but were unfortunate. I mean, if France played as they did in round 1 and Peru played like they did in Round 1, I would Expect Peru to win or draw at worst. Another round, another day, another game but those two games are really interesting to me.
 
I would think under in the Russia game is worth a look or Egypt plus a half goal, given Russia just needs a draw to advance.
 
Would be shocked if Spain and Portugal both don't roll, particularly on a step down in class from the game a few days ago.
 
I can't unsee what I saw in the last Nigeria game. I could only take Iceland. I know in football, when a team has a really bad game and I know they are better than that, I often get value on them the next time out .. .not sure if that is the case with Nigeria ... but man, they looked listless and confused ... unable to string together anything. Corrected in less than a week?
 
i feel like i'm in a very dangerous position as a heavy dog player when none of the overwhelming favorites look like they deserve anything close to this much respect. I think ARG had questions coming in, as did FRA, and ARG did nothing to change that

My PRs from what I've seen so far:
1. BRA +1
1. ESP +1
3. GER 0
4. FRA +3
5. BEL +3
6. POR +1
7. ENG +3
8. ARG +1
9. URU +3
 
vk said:
The group C matches are the most compelling to me. Thought Australia played very well against France and were a bit unfortunate to not get the draw, though they were outplayed on the whole. I thought Denmark were the luckiest team in round 1. So it makes for an interesting set up in that game ... and meanwhile, France looked a little sketchy compared to what I expected while Peru played really well but were unfortunate. I mean, if France played as they did in round 1 and Peru played like they did in Round 1, I would Expect Peru to win or draw at worst. Another round, another day, another game but those two games are really interesting to me.
Click to expand...

i like Peru coming in, took them to advance, and they did nothing besides foolishly not start their stud scorer to change that. My fear is they have no fear of FRA and will play an open game instead of trying to ugly it up and defend. They're tiny and that only exposes them to a talent discrepancy, but at +1 catching odds it'll be hard for me to say no. As of right now i am
 
vk said:
I can't unsee what I saw in the last Nigeria game. I could only take Iceland. I know in football, when a team has a really bad game and I know they are better than that, I often get value on them the next time out .. .not sure if that is the case with Nigeria ... but man, they looked listless and confused ... unable to string together anything. Corrected in less than a week?
Click to expand...

Yeah I agree I'll be on Iceland. More organized, better defensively, just the better team.

Good to see you've become a futbol aficionado =)
 
GWarner27 said:
i like Peru coming in, took them to advance, and they did nothing besides foolishly not start their stud scorer to change that. My fear is they have no fear of FRA and will play an open game instead of trying to ugly it up and defend. They're tiny and that only exposes them to a talent discrepancy, but at +1 catching odds it'll be hard for me to say no. As of right now i am
Click to expand...


Yeah I fear the same for Peru. France may find it easier in the 2nd game if Peru leave them a lot of space. At least they should have more than vs Australia. Could be a fun match to watch but I think France will win with not too much trouble unfortunately
 
over probably worth a look, but why trust anybody to score with all these fouls and no cards to stop it
 
GWarner27 said:
i feel like i'm in a very dangerous position as a heavy dog player when none of the overwhelming favorites look like they deserve anything close to this much respect. I think ARG had questions coming in, as did FRA, and ARG did nothing to change that

My PRs from what I've seen so far:
1. BRA +1
1. ESP +1
3. GER 0
4. FRA +3
5. BEL +3
6. POR +1
7. ENG +3
8. ARG +1
9. URU +3
Click to expand...

I’d have England ahead of Belgium , probably flip flop Germany and France , but pretty much agree with others
 
Unless I have more to drink, the over in the first game is the only thing I like.
And considering what is out there for the dogs, that bothers me.
Maybe when I'm sober.
 
All three favorites should try to put up a number tomorrow but not likely to touch anything Spain until I know the Portugal result...also, if Uruguay don't score early and often, can see them just trying to get out with any victory. Agree, first match should see goals
 
GWarner27 said:
i feel like i'm in a very dangerous position as a heavy dog player when none of the overwhelming favorites look like they deserve anything close to this much respect. I think ARG had questions coming in, as did FRA, and ARG did nothing to change that

My PRs from what I've seen so far:
1. BRA +1
1. ESP +1
3. GER 0
4. FRA +3
5. BEL +3
6. POR +1
7. ENG +3
8. ARG +1
9. URU +3
Click to expand...

An inquiring Canadian mind ( albeit shoe border smuggler) wants to know are you making money being a heavy underdog player.?
 
coming back to the idea that Peru +1 is worth a stab, but don't like the juice climbing to -119 on 5d. Think I need the full goal to get involved, but my fears that they would give an open game to FRA and they would pay for it would require FRA to put a solid game together. Can they do that?

Giroud's forehead is scary against the shortest team in the field, Pogba is slippery and Griezmann just finishes. If Peru struggled so much on so many chances vs DEN, why would they be able to do any better here?

With a +1 if Peru scores then they just need to prevent picking the ball out of their own net three times, that seems doable if they possess the ball a fair amount. I can't imagine they switch attitudes completely and start to play for the counter, so this game may see some goals thus diminishing the value of a +1 compared to what it'd be in a nail-biter.

Also expect money to flow into FRA, anybody see that differently?
 
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