Marsski Week 3 Going Back to Cali

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
YTD: 7-7

Headed out for a few days in Frisco with the Buckeyes this weekend so I will probably have to have everything in by early Saturday. Feel a little unlucky to be 7-7, hoping to turn it up a notch now that we are starting to get a feel for what teams can do and can't do...

MAC Schedule:

Marshall at Ohio +8

Akron at Michigan -37

W Michigan at Northwestern -31.5

Ball St at N Texas +3

E Michigan at Butgers -27.5

Bowling Green at Indiana -3

U Mass at Kansas St -38.5

Kent St at LSU -37

C Mich at UNLV -7

Stonybrook at Buffalo


Card goes here:

W Ky. -9.5 for 1 unit
Maryland -6.5 for 1 unit (-120)
UCLA +4.5 for 1 unit
Ball State -3 for 1 unit (-115)

Teaser: Marshall -2/Bama -1.5 for 1 unit (-120)
Marshall -2.5/NE Pats -5 for half unit (-120). L
Marshall -2/ W Ky -2.5 for 1 unit (-120)
 
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Not saying I want to lay 8, but it's Marshall or nobody in Athens this weekend. OU laid an ass beating on these guys 2 years ago and it should be payback time. This is a big rivalry even though they are in different leagues. JUMP you best hide the womenfolk and children down in the holler.
 
Going back to the well for W Ky. Goddamn you Bobby Keep The Bike On The Road...

Play: W Ky. -9.5 for 1 unit
 
twinkie13 said:
Flashes suck....you entertaining taking the points tho?

quite alot
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They surprised me some last week with how well they moved the ball in the first half before the wheels fell off...but no, not really. If it moved to 41 I would consider it. I will be not betting that game.
 
Speaking of Kent at LSU, I think UAB was the right side last week. LSU is damn damn tough. But I think UAB got screwed on the spot 3rd down their last drive in the red zone. They went for it on 4th and were stopped. That and LSU had that damn 100y short FG return for TD. But UAB could have come in.

So just thinking how does Kent compare to UAB? UAB offensively has alot more to offer. I would imagine that game would need to be like 45-7 with Kent scoring the back door. It is hard to not see LSU scoring 50+ again unless their heads are just completely somewhere else. If Archer is a go it makes it more interesting, but why would Kent want to risk reinjury here? They need him for MAC play.
 
No way I lay it....LSU wound up covering, but yes the 100 yd fg runback and then the 4th down inside the 10 not being converted

Flashes are worse than UAB by a bit I say....hard to see LSU gettin up for rd 2 here.....I expect the team hits the town Friday night hard...

Gun to head I play Kent....likely no play tho
 
If it was less than 35 I would consider laying it again but it will be a no play for me also. Obviously the FG return was a fluke but even without it LSU takes over in the middle of the field with 20 minutes left in the game and an offense that was doing whatever it wanted to.
 
s--k said:
Speaking of Kent at LSU, I think UAB was the right side last week. LSU is damn damn tough. But I think UAB got screwed on the spot 3rd down their last drive in the red zone. They went for it on 4th and were stopped. That and LSU had that damn 100y short FG return for TD. But UAB could have come in.

So just thinking how does Kent compare to UAB? UAB offensively has alot more to offer. I would imagine that game would need to be like 45-7 with Kent scoring the back door. It is hard to not see LSU scoring 50+ again unless their heads are just completely somewhere else. If Archer is a go it makes it more interesting, but why would Kent want to risk reinjury here? They need him for MAC play.
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yeah, I can't see Archer playing...they know they are gonna get smashed and have MAC aspirations still...for now at least.
If #1 was going to play, I would consider playing Kent.
 
Got Maryland, Marshall and Ball State under consideration...hoping to see movement my way off of key numbers... may buy .5 with Maryland, Ball...might have to suck it up on Marshall and give more than 7
 
mrob said:
curious about cmu getting the TD...seems too much to me
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Zurlon Tipton likely out for year with broken ankle and QB Kater broke his collarbone. Tipton is huge mega loss...back up QB was shitty vs Michigan...would not take CMU on the road under these circumstances personally. UNLV generally decent at home as well.
 
Got itchy on Terps and went ahead and bought off the 7...

Play: Maryland -6.5 for 1 unit (-120)...will be back to discuss this a bit later
 
Marsski said:
Zurlon Tipton likely out for year with broken ankle and QB Kater broke his collarbone. Tipton is huge mega loss...back up QB was shitty vs Michigan...would not take CMU on the road under these circumstances personally. UNLV generally decent at home as well.
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thx for the response
 
Ohio showed some mettle in pulling out the win last week after NT had come back from trailing by 14. Prior to two FG drives to close the game, the Bobcats had been less than impressive throughout much of the second and entire third quarter scoring 0 points. That kind of a lull will be deadly against Marshall who looks to have success through the air on Ohio. Keep in mind Ohio had a pick run back in the second quarter so they had 14 pts on offense in 51 minutes.
In the LV game it looked like Ohio was afraid to go man to man and sat in zone because of LV athletic speed...I think Marshall has similar speed and athletes in the passing game.
The only way Ohio can stay in this game is if they match scores with Marshall. Based on the NT game, I don't think Ohio is ready. Marshall's defense is not stellar but they are improved.
Ohio really kicked Marshall's ass 2 years ago and got a little lucky last year in eeking out a win. Marshall has had this one circled for a long time. Plenty of Herd fans will be making the short trip across the river. I would love to lay 7 here...not sure I will see it....would make for a good teaser half sitting at 8...
 
Tettleton threw 2 picks vs NT which is very uncharacteristic for him. Looked like he was forcing the ball a little. Just something to watch...
 
Real flat spot for Michigan Saturday with the lowly Zips coming to town after the Irish at night. I wish Akron had something to hang their hat on. It's not defense as they gave up 31 to James Madison last week and offense isn't much to write home about either with Bowden talking about playing 2 QBs... I still sorta lean Akron based on spot and the fact that 37 is such a big number... But really Michigan should hit 50 here if the Dukes got 31...no bet for me.
 
Watched most of N Texas game last week and came away not very impressed. Defense looked small and the Run D was porous allowing 203 at 5 a clip for Ohio. They couldn't pop anything on the ground and while Cancellor has scary speed they really didn't get him many touches. Their QB is pedestrian.
Ball St has the best throwing QB in the MAC in Wenning and a stable full of backs. The question was really the offense line which wore down Army as the Cards coasted. If NT couldn't handle OUs running game, I can't see them handling Ball St. I just don't see the firepower on NT to compete with a very good QB and a decent running game.
 
Marsski said:
Real flat spot for Michigan Saturday with the lowly Zips coming to town after the Irish at night. I wish Akron had something to hang their hat on. It's not defense as they gave up 31 to James Madison last week and offense isn't much to write home about either with Bowden talking about playing 2 QBs... I still sorta lean Akron based on spot and the fact that 37 is such a big number... But really Michigan should hit 50 here if the Dukes got 31...no bet for me.
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It's not enough to really get me to play Akron, but they are getting sacks and tfl this year pretty good. They have James and Capi from CSU (remember kicked off CSU before 2012 started). Akron has 6 sacks in two games including 4 vs UCF, last year they just had 16 in 12 games. They also have 17 tfl, 8.5 pg, last season they avg 4.9 pg. I think I've been kind of waiting for a big ah-ha moment on offense, but the real improvement with the team might be on the defensive side of the ball. We can't expect for that to be a big impact vs Michigan, they might make some plays in the backfield of course, but if the D has an impact in terms of outcomes of games we'll have to see it in the MAC schedule.
 
As I mentioned earlier, the injury situation for Central is quite dire. I got to think they will be deflated with Tipton knocked out for the year and the QB gone as well. I admit to you I don't know much about UNLV but I do know they are usually a classic home/road split type team (opponents partying maybe?)...gotta take UNLV here or stay away in my opinion
 
s--k said:
It's not enough to really get me to play Akron, but they are getting sacks and tfl this year pretty good. They have James and Capi from CSU (remember kicked off CSU before 2012 started). Akron has 6 sacks in two games including 4 vs UCF, last year they just had 16 in 12 games. They also have 17 tfl, 8.5 pg, last season they avg 4.9 pg. I think I've been kind of waiting for a big ah-ha moment on offense, but the real improvement with the team might be on the defensive side of the ball. We can't expect for that to be a big impact vs Michigan, they might make some plays in the backfield of course, but if the D has an impact in terms of outcomes of games we'll have to see it in the MAC schedule.
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974 yards and 71 points in 2 games...not that improved on D...
 
Marsski said:
974 yards and 71 points in 2 games...not that improved on D...
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Right, yet, we'll have to see if it comes out in MAC play, but they are making plays in the backfield at a much better rate than they were before. UCF is quite good and JMU is pretty good as well. Of course so is Michigan, ULL, BGSU and on down the line so if and when we see the D improvement and if it effects outcomes of games (or covers) I'm not sure. I'm just saying that Akron is doing positive things on D that they were not doing before.
 
Ok, fair enough.

I love me some Ohio football coaches especially from the Valley but big time coaching mismatch out in Lincoln this weekend. I don't like the Noon start for UCLA but I know I get the better coach and defense and the more physical team. Lean Bruins
 
Just read that the Bruins never punted vs Nevada in week 1 while Nebraska gave up 600 yards to Wyoming last week. Hundley went for 3 bills last year on Nebraska, I see him having another big day. Also like the extra week for UCLA and the fact that Huney spread the ball to 12 receivers in his first game. I know Nebraska is tough at home but I think UCLA is clearly the better team here.
 
I don't do teasers a lot but when I can move through 3 and 7 with teams I like, it makes sense...find 2 that fit the bill this week...

Teased Bama down to -1.5 and Marshall to -2 for 1 unit (-120)
 
Ball State 9-1-1 vs. the spread in last 11 road games spanning last season and half. Tough road trip to North Texas but Wenning has played at USF, Oklahoma, Clemson, Indiana so I don't think NT's crowd will matter too much...Ball has been at home for first two weeks so its not a bad travel spot...

Played: Ball State -3 for 1 unit (-115)
 
I'd love to fade USC because it feels like a meltdown situation but BC is tough to play...bad match-up for Eagles in my opinion
 
Tim has some very good Md thoughts in his thread but to basically state the case for them, they have a QB who can effectively run the zone read and a game breaking WR and another guy who is very very good to take the pressure off Diggs. They have more than 500 yards offense in both games and now go face punch less UConn who couldn't run in Towson and gave up five sacks. I think Maryland gets minimum upper 20s here and rolls by 14plus... Not thinking we see a robust Conn crowd considering that they lost to fucking Towson
 
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BG is a tricky game to figure out because Indiana struggled so much last week with Navy. I thought they would handle the Middies and bet it so obviously I don't have them figured out...I think Indiana should throw all over BG as skilled passing teams including shitty Kent did last week. I also think Johnson puts up points on Indiana... If I played anything in this game it would be the over.
 
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Just saw over is 63 for ball state , geez, never mind. I will sit it out...other MAC games are pretty shit this week slight lean to UMass, slight lean to Western...
 
well, if u need that crew to win by 4 touchdowns, its safe to just not lean mars

enjoy your trip to the north coast man, sounds like fun
 
AS Always...Good info and thoughts and an enjoyable read While we may be on different side on a few, I understand the reasoning.

BOL on them all my friend
 
Thanks KJ, looking forward to it. Got an apartment in the Mission for four days with some old college buddies...
 
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