Marsski Week 2

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
YTD 3-4

MAC schedule for the week:

Toledo @ Mizzou -17

Army @ Ball St -9

Nichols State @ W Mich

New Hampshire @ C Mich

E Mich @ Penn State -24.5

BG @ Kent St +7.5

N Texas @ Ohio U -6.5

Buffalo @ Baylor -28

Miami O @ Kentucky -17

James Madison @ Akron

Maine @ UMass



Week 2 Card goes here:

Ball State -6.5 for 1 unit (-125)
Western Kentucky +14 for 1 unit
BG -6.5 for 1 unit (-115)
Ok State -26.5 for 1 unit
San Jose St +25.5 for 1 unit
Ball St/Ky/Kansas St ML 1 unit to win .74
Indiana -12.5 for 1 unit
 
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Well, that was an ass whooping yesterday. Not sure if Bobcats are that bad but LV made em look putrid.

A few intriguing games in the MAC this week including the tilt in Kent. Haven't looked yet to see what the deal is with Archer but gonna be hard to take Kent considering how BGs defense should dominate.

Buffalo continuing to catch big points...I might be on em again. Miami is a good fade based on what I saw Saturday.
 
Lean to Ball State at 9... They should throw a big number up on Army, need to read up more on Army to see what they have
 
Looks like Army handled Morgan State pretty well last week...surprised to see 8 pass attempts...that's throwing the ball all over the yard for Army...No turnovers either for the new QB Santiago.
 
I had Ohio on the other side of the 7 but after that ville game I dunno. check out the two scoring drives for Miami ohio,,,, first one the big pass completion was a bad throw into coverage where Scott just leaped over intercepting defender. Seems a lot of "sharp" money came in on mizzou early. can't wait to hear thoughts
 
So Ball St giving a TD to Army? Ok, I will bite. I expect the ground game and Wenning to have big games vs the Black Knights. Ball St played Army LY so it's not like they haven't seen the triple option. I'm doubting that Army can match the potent offense and score enough to keep this close. Steelman is gone but the new QB played well vs Morgan State. Lets see how he does facing a decent D line.
I bought off the 7 as I like to do.

Play: Ball State -6.5 for 1 unit (-125)
 
Marsski said:
So Ball St giving a TD to Army? Ok, I will bite. I expect the ground game and Wenning to have big games vs the Black Knights. Ball St played Army LY so it's not like they haven't seen the triple option. I'm doubting that Army can match the potent offense and score enough to keep this close. Steelman is gone but the new QB played well vs Morgan State. Lets see how he does facing a decent D line.
I bought off the 7 as I like to do.

Play: Ball State -6.5 for 1 unit (-125)
Click to expand...

leanin your way marsski. like the under too.

GL man.
 
Strange thing about Murray St last week vs Mizzou was that on their first 3 drives they gained 195 yards scoring 2 TDs and missing a FG. The rest of the game they only gained 102 more yards. Whatever they were doing Mizzou found a way to shut it down. Not surprised that Tigers had all those yards and points, Murray didn't play D last year either.

I have strong leans towards Toledo. As much as the offense struggled, which is expected, the defense wasn't bad. Statistically it wasn't pretty, but in the 2nd half either Florida either lost interest or Toledo D started to 'get it'. Florida only gained 7, 9, 7 yards on their first three 2nd half drives and the only Gator score was a 23y drive following a Tol INT. UF did end game at the Tol 4 though.

Toledo emerged healthy and tested and hung in the number. DT Jones and DB Haden are still expected out this week though (neither played last week). Have to figure that the D is going to yield more point this game - I don't see Mizzou only getting 24 pts in this one. Rockets also figure to be able to find more running room and success for Owens. Their weapons are plentiful and the OL should matchup a little better. I think Fluellen will be a bigger part of this game, they barely tried to use him last week. And maybe Reedy can have an impact on punt/kick returns.

My biggest concern would be Rocket D. Nobody is crazy about the Florida offense, Mizzou poses a bigger challenge. The hope for me would just be that Toledo O can get on track and hang.
 
Army DBs really really struggled last year with pass coverage and gave up a TON of big plays. Army is also poor on the road.

Wondering how Ball St's OL would do vs ILL ST, they gave up 3 sacks...but ILL St was a good sacking team last year.

I wouldn't be surprised, we'd have to check, but playing Army in week 2 might mean that Ball was able to spend more time vs option prep in fall camp.

good luck, Ball would seem to be the way to go.
 
I didn't get a chance to see any of the Toledo game vs. Fla so my opinion may not be the most valid...But I wonder about traveling to Mizzou and facing a much better offense than Fla. Second big travel trip in a row...Mizzou with Franklin is going to put up some points and not as fresh Toledo squad is going to probably need to score at least 17-20 to cover.
They were 1-13 on third down and basically got stuffed all game except for Reedy who had 7 catches. 17-38 from Owens, 205 yards total. And Fla had some defensive guys suspended. This score probably should have been worse than 24-6, Fla stopped near goalline at end for example..
I guess it comes down to how good you think Florida's defense is...but those offensive numbers seem bad. There's no way to dress it up. I'm not sure they are ready to put up enough points to stay within the tariff this Saturday.
I lean to MIzzou but I won't play it cuz I got other games I like much more...
 
So welcome back to college football Bobby Petrino. You old motorcycle riding dawg.

His ability to pilot a bike notwithstanding, let's not forget that Bobby knows a thing or two about coaching at the college level especially QBs.
Now, he must have a pretty decent little team this year because W Ky handled Ky. just fine. QB Doughty went 27-34 with at least four drops (per AP) and woulda had 2 TDs but only got 1. Two running backs near 100 yards. Held the ball for 35 minutes. This wasn't any fluky win, W Ky has a nice little team.
Tennessee is starting a true freshman Db and has 2 others in the two-deep...they had 3 DL miss last week...and they lost their top 4 pass catchers from LY, new QB...they have some questions marks and beating the snot out of Austin Peay doesn't mean shit to me. Vk in his thread points out that W Ky also spanked Austin Peay last year.
Butch Jones is a good coach but I think Petrino is better...this seems like a live dog to me...when it hit 14 I took it.

Play: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +14 for 1 unit
 
I watched Buffalo in person in the Shoe last week, and came away fairly impressed. I thought the QB Licata was pretty decent and Neutz gave the Buckeyes problems with his size as I thought he would. Oliver didn't have a great game but he's got good strength inside the tackles and a nose for the first down marker. The Buckeyes really didn't control the line of scrimmage that much and I think Buffalo Ol did a nice job with the BUcks DL. Only 1 sack.
I also like that they didn't panic once they were down 23-0.
LB Mack was the best defensive player on the field I thought. He is a stud.

They go into Baylor this week who beat the tarnation out of Wofford. So who knows what that means, but they are breaking in a new QB and figure to be a middle of the pack Big 12 team...I think the bookies are underrating Buffalo a little bit...I'm gonna wait and hope the 28 comes back. Lean Buffalo, will play at 28...
 
s--k said:
Army DBs really really struggled last year with pass coverage and gave up a TON of big plays. Army is also poor on the road.

Wondering how Ball St's OL would do vs ILL ST, they gave up 3 sacks...but ILL St was a good sacking team last year.

I wouldn't be surprised, we'd have to check, but playing Army in week 2 might mean that Ball was able to spend more time vs option prep in fall camp.

good luck, Ball would seem to be the way to go.
Click to expand...

yeah, I think Army does well when someone hasn't seen the option at all AND has little to no time to prepare...not the case here.
 
s--k said:
Strange thing about Murray St last week vs Mizzou was that on their first 3 drives they gained 195 yards scoring 2 TDs and missing a FG. The rest of the game they only gained 102 more yards. Whatever they were doing Mizzou found a way to shut it down. Not surprised that Tigers had all those yards and points, Murray didn't play D last year either.

I have strong leans towards Toledo. As much as the offense struggled, which is expected, the defense wasn't bad. Statistically it wasn't pretty, but in the 2nd half either Florida either lost interest or Toledo D started to 'get it'. Florida only gained 7, 9, 7 yards on their first three 2nd half drives and the only Gator score was a 23y drive following a Tol INT. UF did end game at the Tol 4 though.

Toledo emerged healthy and tested and hung in the number. DT Jones and DB Haden are still expected out this week though (neither played last week). Have to figure that the D is going to yield more point this game - I don't see Mizzou only getting 24 pts in this one. Rockets also figure to be able to find more running room and success for Owens. Their weapons are plentiful and the OL should matchup a little better. I think Fluellen will be a bigger part of this game, they barely tried to use him last week. And maybe Reedy can have an impact on punt/kick returns.

My biggest concern would be Rocket D. Nobody is crazy about the Florida offense, Mizzou poses a bigger challenge. The hope for me would just be that Toledo O can get on track and hang.
Click to expand...

I didn't see the Fla game but is Toledo really ready to score 17 to 20 to 24? Cuz I think Mizzou will put up some numbers
 
Miami O is a bad bad team, and I was happy that I bet against them last week at halftime even though the halftime score was close.
Marshall went through them like a knife through butter in the second half. I think they are really going to struggle this year. Their QB is shitty and their running game isn't much either.
Not sure what to think about Ky...seems like the box score is indicating that the Hilltoppers handled them pretty well...Can Ky. cover the 17?

I'd have Ky or nobody in this one, still thinking about it...
 
Marsski said:
I didn't see the Fla game but is Toledo really ready to score 17 to 20 to 24? Cuz I think Mizzou will put up some numbers
Click to expand...

To weigh in on your earlier comment as it relates to Toledo, I think the Florida defense is very good and handcuffed Toledo all day long. They split time at QB last year so Owens didn't face Utah St for the whole game, but clearly the game at Florida was the toughest defense he has had to play.

Owens is seasoned, he's played at the Shoe, he's played against Boise and he's played against Gators now. He didn't perform well in any of those games. I do see the Missouri D as a good step down and unless his head isn't straight there shouldn't be any reason their OL, RB and WRs can't find the EZ in this game. If Owens is seeing ghosts or pressing then Rockets will be in trouble. Ideally I would have liked for him to have played better last week for confidence reasons (both his and mine).

About the travel, not apples-to-apples of course, but Toledo did do a back-to-back road trip in Arizona and Wyoming last year. They also came off a tough OT loss at Syracuse in 2011 (the game with the x-pt that was called good, but it wasn't) and then won straight up as 8 pt dog at Temple the next week. Not comparable in terms of talent or physicalness they have or will face here coming off Gators and now facing Mizzou, but those prior situations does speak to their mental resolve I think.

Ultimately, I'd be surprised if they don't atleast get into the 24-28 range. I'd also be surprised if Mizzou doesn't clear 40.
 
GL Marski, I dont cap the MAC. I am glad someone does so I can buzz through your thread and see if I can make a case for a play

Great stuff:shake:
 
Dri Archer status for BG sounds iffy. He was in a walking boot after getting hurt in the first series and apparently he had some kind on ankle issue prior to kick.

You can't bet Kent without Archer playing and showcasing his usual burner speed. Kent just doesn't have enough weapons as Durham their big bruising back will be running right into the teeth of what was a pretty tough run D for BG. I think BGs secondary is exploitable but I don't think Kent sans Archer can do it.

BG is pretty weak on offense but the freshman QB did look marginally better than Schilz. They will win some ugly games thus year just like last year as this will probably be one of them. I would have BG or nobody in this one but I don't think I will lay it unless I can get 7 flat...
 
s--k said:
To weigh in on your earlier comment as it relates to Toledo, I think the Florida defense is very good and handcuffed Toledo all day long. They split time at QB last year so Owens didn't face Utah St for the whole game, but clearly the game at Florida was the toughest defense he has had to play.

Owens is seasoned, he's played at the Shoe, he's played against Boise and he's played against Gators now. He didn't perform well in any of those games. I do see the Missouri D as a good step down and unless his head isn't straight there shouldn't be any reason their OL, RB and WRs can't find the EZ in this game. If Owens is seeing ghosts or pressing then Rockets will be in trouble. Ideally I would have liked for him to have played better last week for confidence reasons (both his and mine).

About the travel, not apples-to-apples of course, but Toledo did do a back-to-back road trip in Arizona and Wyoming last year. They also came off a tough OT loss at Syracuse in 2011 (the game with the x-pt that was called good, but it wasn't) and then won straight up as 8 pt dog at Temple the next week. Not comparable in terms of talent or physicalness they have or will face here coming off Gators and now facing Mizzou, but those prior situations does speak to their mental resolve I think.

Ultimately, I'd be surprised if they don't atleast get into the 24-28 range. I'd also be surprised if Mizzou doesn't clear 40.
Click to expand...

You might be right about Floridas Defense being that good...the problem with Owens is that he lacks touch on the ball at times and can be erratic with his accuracy. That's a problem when he is the man instead of in a platoon situation. Good luck with it I would love to see the Rockets give em a good fight. It's a fair point about how they have done in back to back roadies LY etc
 
Sooo BG down to 6.5 and I had to grab it. Only worry is Archer, but hard to see him going from walking boot to 100 percent in 6 days. Not seeing kent moving the ball on the ground, and without Archer they don't have big play capability in the passing game....BG gets revenge for last year's loss..

Play: BG -6.5 for 1 unit (-115)
 
Rex says the line movement is Rooster betting both sides or Walters fuckery...I can't see taking Kent without KNOWING Archer is 100 percent
 
If Rex, VK and Silky all like something...that's good enough for me.

Play: Ok State -26.5 for 1 unit
 
E Michigan @ Penn State -24

E Michigan was a 17 point fave to Howard last week and had to come from behind to win by 10. Its Ron English's fifth year and he's won 0, 2, 6, and 2 so any hopes he had turned the corner with this program I think have been dashed.
English is his own DC and they seem to have good schemes but last year were plagued by poor tackling. Last year vs. the Big Ten they lost to Purdue by 38 as 24 point dogs and lost to Michigan State by 17 as 32 point dogs.
In the Michigan State game, they were outgained 428-183 and out first downed 21-8. They were actually leading in the third quarter of this game somehow 7-6 before Michigan State separated.

Penn State came back int he 4th quarter last week to beat Syracuse but were just 1-16 on third down. The freshman Hackenberg threw for nearly 300 yards which bodes well as he takes on E Michigan's rather pedestrian secondary. (Gave up 182 to Howard)...I think Penn State should have their way with E Michigan in this one and I would expect that they get mid 30s at least. That means E Michigan is going to have to get into double digits to be covering and last year they had 16 on Purdue and and 7 on Michigan State...Benz is serviceable at best at Qb and I just don't see the firepower other than the little back they have Hill. It's going to be tough sledding for him against Penn State big interior lineman.
Lean Penn State, don't see how you could play EMU...they will need to come in the back door to cover...
 
Good looking card for wk two. I think we agree so far. I know ur a winner and expect a big week from U

GL old friend :shake:
 
bloodhound said:
Good looking card for wk two. I think we agree so far. I know ur a winner and expect a big week from U

GL old friend :shake:
Click to expand...

Thank you old timer, I sure hope so...

Not sure I quite understand the spread in Palo Alto this week as San jose visits Stanford. Last year's game between these two was nip and tuck and Stanford won by 3 as a 24 point favorite. Yards were even and Stanfrod was +2 in turnovers so it really wasn't a misleading score or anything...a year later and Nunes, Stepfan Taylor and top 5 WRs are gone and the spread is 25.5. I guess its the losses on defense for the Spartans and the new coach factor...still I would say 17-20ish.

I was very impressed with QB Fales for SJ State down the stretch...he throws a very accurate ball and moves in the pocket nicely. He threw for more than 300 six games in a row to end the year including BYU and BG who have decent defenses.
Grisby is a big play WR and with 80 starts back on the OL I think they will be adequate against a very tough DL for Stanford.
I do expect Stanford to control the line of scrimmage but I think their offense will be a little rusty as we have opening game jitters from a part time QB and an all new receiving core. I know San Jose has a new coach but hard to see this one getting out of hand with Fales playing...if Stanford does blow their doors off...the back door should be wide open for San Jose late in the game. Little bit of a chip on the shoulder here for San Jose I'm sure after last year's tight loss...

Play: San Jose St +25.5 for 1 unit
 
Adding from this list tonight/tomorrow

Kentucky
Tulane
Indiana
Ohio U.
Michigan
Buffalo

Will be back to talk a little Bobcats at some point...
 
Marsski said:
Thank you old timer, I sure hope so...

Not sure I quite understand the spread in Palo Alto this week as San jose visits Stanford. Last year's game between these two was nip and tuck and Stanford won by 3 as a 24 point favorite. Yards were even and Stanfrod was +2 in turnovers so it really wasn't a misleading score or anything...a year later and Nunes, Stepfan Taylor and top 5 WRs are gone and the spread is 25.5. I guess its the losses on defense for the Spartans and the new coach factor...still I would say 17-20ish.

I was very impressed with QB Fales for SJ State down the stretch...he throws a very accurate ball and moves in the pocket nicely. He threw for more than 300 six games in a row to end the year including BYU and BG who have decent defenses.
Grisby is a big play WR and with 80 starts back on the OL I think they will be adequate against a very tough DL for Stanford.
I do expect Stanford to control the line of scrimmage but I think their offense will be a little rusty as we have opening game jitters from a part time QB and an all new receiving core. I know San Jose has a new coach but hard to see this one getting out of hand with Fales playing...if Stanford does blow their doors off...the back door should be wide open for San Jose late in the game. Little bit of a chip on the shoulder here for San Jose I'm sure after last year's tight loss...

Play: San Jose St +25.5 for 1 unit
Click to expand...

I tend to agree.You know that the Cardinal are aware of fact that they scored no TDs in final 49:23 in LY's squeaker vs Blazers (23-pt spread loss),and they won't be looking ahead to Army. Spartans coming in with a game-under-belt and SJSt managed a 15 FDs vs SacramentoSt, with QB Fales just 16-of-32. Stanford held 10 foes below 18 pts in '12, but Blazers have covered 18-of-23. So a slight dog call on the side small but I dolike this Under 49 quite a bit
 
Thanks Hunt...

It sounds weird to say this about an out of conference week 2 game but I think it might be circle the wagons time in Athens tonight when the Green machine comes calling to the not so mighty Bobcats. Coach Solichs bunch got absolutely boat raced last week in Louisville on national TV. They executed poorly on offense, couldn't get off the field on third down on defense and were non competitive in every facet of the game. Kickoff return team got a lot if reps though.

Is that the team they have? Do they rally at home this week or let a middle to lower tier Conference USA squad take em down? I really don't know but the betting public has been betting North Texas all week driving the spread from 6.5/7 down to 4...seems like a lot of line value on the Bobcats at home where they are 10-2 the last 2 years with all the wins by at least 4.

NT has talent especially at RB and they whipped Idaho last week but not sure what that is saying...

Ohio has a bunch of seniors on this team (13 starters by Steeles depth chart) including Tettleton and Blakenship...I think the year could start slipping away if they don't win this game...I lean towards the Bobcats getting it done but I don't know if I stomach laying the points after last weeks debacle.
 
Ohio sort of is an enigma, but I think that it's just Louisville is that good. That team is a title contender imo. Almost everyone back on both sides of ball and Bridgewater might be the best qb in CFB.
 
HUNT said:
Ohio sort of is an enigma, but I think that it's just Louisville is that good. That team is a title contender imo. Almost everyone back on both sides of ball and Bridgewater might be the best qb in CFB.
Click to expand...

Bridgewater is definitely nails. Not sure about quality of LV defense ultimately. I agree OU is just a big question mark right now... I think tonight's game is oddly defining though...
 
4-3 day, also had Ohio unposted so the acct at least moved forward...Bobcats showed a little something last night in gutting out that win...BGs offense looked better than I expected...pass D is problematic for them when they get Wenning or Tettleton...Ball St game was true to form...Toledo hung around and got the cover...EMU got destroyed as expected. Fairly by the book MAC week

I took Tampa -3 today, love to bet against a rookie QB making his first start and the Jets are fucking wretched.
 
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