Marshall vs Texas State...

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
The CTG forum is aware that the Texas State Bobcats have been adopted as my second team over the past two years. I found this offense and have clinged to this team heavily the past few years via team totals and game overs. They are a fun bunch to watch, and they are never out of a bet. Some of these games have been so wild the past few years. I'll never be surprised at anything that happens in their affairs.

This week, they head to Marshall for a pivotal conference game.

Entering this game, these two teams are coming off emotional outcomes last time out.

Marshall was a 14+ point underdog to CTG Forum favorites, the Old Domination Monarchs. The Herd forced a lot of turnovers early in the 1st half to race out to a double-digit HT lead. ODU couldn't score in the 3rd quarter and became prone to turnovers on downs. Marshall converted many more of those short fields into scores and ran away with the win.

The Thundering Herd were off a bye entering last week. Their previous game was a 54-51 overtime loss to Louisiana. They started the year with losses to Georgia and Mo State (shoutout @cubsker ) before rebounding with two DD wins. Another bye ensues after this Texas State game for the Herd.

Texas State came into this season with a new QB and high expectations. The offense has been as potent as in the past few years in the Sun Belt, and they are excited to join the Pac-12 conference next July 1st. High-scoring wins in the first few weeks set up the Bobcats with a lot of confidence as they faced Arizona State. This was a pretty competitive game until the 4th when the Sun Devils pulled away. They rebounded the next weeks vs FCS foe Nichols before a well-deserved bye week.

The next step was heading into the meat of the conference season. This is where things have taken a turn...

First was a very close game vs the Arkansas State squad. This was actually one of the lower-scoring games for the Bobcats and came down to a wild 4th quarter and a missed XP to take the loss. Next up was a familiar rival -- Troy. The Bobcats came out on fire and scored 31 points by halftime. They led by DDs and seemed to be cruising to a crucial conference win. Troy is very tough, though -- and raced back to force OT with a two-point conversion late in the game. Texas St proceeded to miss a field goal at the end of regulation. Overtime was all Troy and another heartbreaker for the Bobcats.

So, this is where we stand heading into this big one. The Texas State squad is off two tough finishes. Meanwhile, Marshall is riding high after last week!




Let's look at the stats

Marshall:

34.3 ppg
177.8 passing/game
197.8 rushing/game
4.4 ypc
5.5 ypp
6.5 opp ypp

5 total turnovers this year
+6 Turnover Ratio

Texas State:

36.0 ppg
226.3 passing/game
250.2 rushing/game
5.5 ypc
6.7 ypp
5.88 opp ypp

5 total turnovers
-4 Turnover Ratio

*Both teams rank in the middle of the Sun Belt in defense
*Both teams give up 29.8 ppg





 
This is a pretty even match-up, looking at things as a whole. The total is likely a bit higher than it should be due to recent trends both ways.

I really like to focus on the Texas State yards per play vs Marshall yards per play given up. That is the first big advantage I have seen. That is critical for a guy who likes to focus on TTs with these Bobcats!

I am doing a lot of reading, trying to figure out the mindset of the Texas State team. These last two weeks have been very tough. Conversely, Marshall is coming in very confident.

Currently, Texas State is -2.5 and 65.

The TT's we'll likely see...

Texas State = 34
Marshall = 31.5

1H Texas State = 17.5 to 18.5
1H Marshall = 15 to 16.5

Texas State tends to start stronger and fade later, for what it's worth.

Looking forward to capping this one more. We'll peek at the weather as well. Any Marshall guys/gals, please chime in!
 
You know my initial look is into the situations of each and it could easily be said that fading Marshall off the big win would be easy. But what to do with the demoralizing defeat by TXSt? I'm not positive that's one you just up and bounce back from really quickly. I lean towards a more sluggish type game if you take away the x and o. That said I'd have a hard time just betting under with these two based on that but that's the gut.
 
Team Totals currently...

Texas State 34 full game

Texas State 17 first half.

Checking weather now.
 
Texas State 1h tt o17 -115 1.5 units

I'm going to start this game small. I'm a bit worried how they react after the past few weeks. That being said, they come out strong so I want to have the number.

Stay tuned ...
 
I am oddly fascinated by your fascination with Texas State.

San Marcos is a great little college town 15 minutes from Austin. You'd love it.
 
I am oddly fascinated by your fascination with Texas State.

San Marcos is a great little college town 15 minutes from Austin. You'd love it.
Basically for years now...

Look for schools that play pace --

Sort of a derivative of Hunt finding good QBs at smaller schools with PACE.

Discovered Texas State offense 2.5 years ago ... When Kinne took over.
 
Other than one big pass play early this is a slower offensive start.

Waiting for some value.

I honestly would try and middle the 1st half but the juice is a tad too much.
 
Reevaluate at the half but the Bobcats offense looks bad right now.

Might be a week to stay away from further action.

Time shall tell...
 
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