MACtion with Marsski (week 1 All Hallows Eve)

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
Spreads are out.... NIU has been catching early money...moved off 3

Tuesday
NIU
@CMU +3.5 45.5

Buffalo
@Toledo -16.5 52.5

Wednesday
Ball State
@BG -6 39.5

Kent St
@Akron -4.5 39

Be back in tomorrow for discussion. Always check the weather in MACtion. Everyone is always welcome in my thread to throw in their two cents.
Betting MACtion is for degens only so no crying about bad beats!!
My week 1 card:

NIU -3.5 to win 1 unit (would play up to -6)
NIU/Akron ML parlay +138 1 unit bet
Buffalo LIVE +20.5 to win 1 unit
Akron/UTSA ML parlay 1 unit bet +106
Akron/Kent 1H under 19.5 to win 1 unit
Ball State +5.5 to win 1 unit
Akron Zip #27 Lingard over 53.5 rush yards to win half unit -114
 
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As we start to talk about the MAC, this year has seen a shit ton of QB injuries and benchings. We have a ton of question marks and back-ups/time shares etc.

So here's my QB information on the teams playing this week:

NIU is playing their starter Rocky Lombardi who you may remember from Mich State. He's got to be one of the best active QBs in the MAC right now. He's had good showings in 3 out of 4 MAC games and 5 TDs, 0 picks in league play. He can make plays with his legs too.

CMU is playing Bauer at Qb right now. They opened the year with wildcat QB Bert Emanuel who can make explosive plays running but sucks at passing but went to Bauer in week 3. He's got 5 pass TDs and 6 picks on the year, they have beat S Bama, Eastern and Akron with him and lost to Buffalo and Ball State on the road. He's a dual threat who played in one game last year. OC here is Paul Petrino. He's OK but turnover prone.

Toledo is playing starter DeQuan FInn. He's the best QB in the MAC. Big play guy, he tore up OSU last year with athletic plays. No worries here except I don't really like their choker head coach.

Buffalo is playing Snyder who has been their QB most of the year--he was knocked out during the BG game but came back last week. He's a Rutgers transfer who started last year and is serviceable. 12/7 td/int ratio this year.

Kent State is just fucking awful, brutal team on offense. They are playing both Alaimo who was the original starter (Purdue transfer) and Ulatowski who came off the bench LY to rally them to a win in the last game. I'd play Ulatowski but it doesn't matter that much since they are so fucking terrible its hard to even put into words.

Akron lost DJ Irons at QB and then went to Tahj Bullock at QB and now are on Undercuffler as the starter. He had a shit game last week vs BG but did have two starts last year and actually beat NIU. He's a 6'5 stand in the pocket guy (transferred from Albany) who holds onto the ball too long. He's nothing to write home about but I do like the moxie he showed last year.

Ball State started the year with Semonza for four game before going to Hatcher for 2 games. They are playing Kelly right now...he got the win last week and was 13/16 vs CMU after a terrible first start against Toledo. He's a dual threat freshman from Tampa...he also has worked at WR. Maybe they found something here last week? He's a little bit of a mystery....coming off a good showing. I think they run the option with him somewhat.

BG is mostly playing Bazelak who played at Indiana and Mizzou (they do play Orth a little as well every week especially in wildcat/goal line package). Bazelak is very turnover prone with 5 TDs/6 INTs this year and a ton of picks at previous stops. He's an average to bad MAC QB.


So this week my MACtion QB power ratings would be

Finn TOL
Lombardi NIU

Snyder BUF
Kelly ??? BALL (don't know what to do with him honestly)
Bauer CMU

Undercuffler AKRON
Bazelak BG
Whatever the fuck Kent St is doing
 
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s--k said:
I'm going to the Kent-Akron game. Cold front came in this weekend, just in time for MACtion
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Making someone watch this game is against the Geneva Convention. It is, however, for the Old Wagon Wheel. I'm jelly you get to see the Turnover Tire in person.
 
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Always got to look at weather in MACtion.

High 30s and rain forecast in Mt. Pleasant; 43 and rain with 10mph wind in Toledo; 43 and rain in Akron; 42 and dry in BG.

So other than BG game, it's something to monitor in the other three.
 
Looks like NIU continues to get hammered, up to -5 on draft kings. I did take some NIU -3.5 and would play this up to -6. I trust Lombardi against MAC defenses and CMU is somewhat banged up on the defensive side of the ball (missing top 2 tacklers).
I haven't played anything else yet.

My play: NIU -3.5 to win 1 unit
 
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I'm already on NIU -3.5 for a unit but decided to double dip here as the NIU side is my strongest opinion this week.
IN the Wagon Wheel, Kent hasn't played anyone in D1 within 14 points and it just a complete mess on offense. I don't think Akron is good, but Lingard is a decent back and they do have a deep threat in #7 Alex Adams--he was really coming on at the end of last year. You really aren't going to score that much on Akron (5 of 8 games with 24 points or less) , and KSU's anemic offense will have problems in this game.
Turnovers will probably decide this game but I'll take my chances with the more talented and better coached Zips to get the W.

By the way, do we get to see the Turnover Tire? LOL. The greatest turnover accessory of all time....

My play: NIU/Akron ml parlay +138
 
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I think I'm going to end up being on Buffalo catching a bunch of points but gonna wait and let the steam push this number as everyone and their Mom will probably be on Toledo. If Boone really is hurt, it would be a huge loss for Toledo...weather here could impact passing depending on the wind/intensity of rain which would hurt Toledo more. I think Buffalo can run it a little bit with their inside zone and Toledo is well-known in recent years for choking in can't lose spots like this. Can I get a +17? Maybe...

No play yet but possibly Buffalo....
 
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I don't think we will see a 6 here again...so went ahead and took Ball State +5.5 for 1 unit.
The way to exploit Ball is through the air and I just don't think Bazelak can do it. Cards run D is decent so expecting BG to being running into the teeth of the D. Meanwhile, I think Ball State might have found something in the zone read with this new QB Kelly. They played Toledo tough and beat CMU so thinking maybe they have turend a corner here as they get some class relief here with shitty BG. I liked RB Cooper last year when he was at Kent, he puts his foot in the ground and gets upfield.

My play: Ball State +5.5 to win 1 unit
 
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Classic hold your nose play here: Expecting a stinker in Akron so why not play 1H under when both defenses are fresh and playcalling may be a little tight as both coaches know this may be their best chance to win a D1 game this year.

My play: Gross but give me Kent/Akron 1H under 19.5 to win 1 unit

Alright I think that's it for now....
 
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Inspekdah said:
Got to be inspiration to put up a big score for Toledo on national tv?
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Sure. But they didn't score at all on Miami in the second half and only 13 against Ball State's bad secondary...something ain't right...
I've seen this movie before with Jason Candle late in the year....
2022: Lost at home to BG as 15 point favs, lost to WMU as 8 point favs
2021: Lost at home to EMU as 9 point favs, lost to CMU as 5 point favs
2019: Lost last 3 games

Should be a rainy and raw night in The Dildo Bowl.
 
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I took Akron 1H ML and game ML, just didn't want to worry how close it might be but assuming the coaching and roster turnover at Kent vs some stability at Akron positions them to win this game. As a disclaimer I've only watched a few minutes of each of these teams play like 7 weeks ago, so I really have no idea. Just assuming Akron is in a better place compared to Kent. And Akron hasn't won this game in 4 or 5 years so they know this has to be the year to get that wheel back.
 
Any thoughts on the health of Antario Brown? I guess he left last game early. Thinking of playing his backup, Gavin Williams, over 43.5 rushing yds. Seems like he only needs about 8 chances to hit it. If Brown is out or slowed, that could happen early.
 
T-Squared said:
Any thoughts on the health of Antario Brown? I guess he left last game early. Thinking of playing his backup, Gavin Williams, over 43.5 rushing yds. Seems like he only needs about 8 chances to hit it. If Brown is out or slowed, that could happen early.
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I don’t know anything more than he went out in the third Q last week and didn’t return.
I very much agree with your thinking about liking the matchup vs CMUs shoddy Run D. Williams is from Iowa so he’s fully capable. I’ll post in here if I find out anything.
 
Looks like just cold tonight. It snowed some last night, but tonight no precipitation. Not sure we'll make it the whole game or not. I think enduring the weather is part of the experience, the people I;m going with may think otherwise. Go Zips!
 
s--k said:
Looks like just cold tonight. It snowed some last night, but tonight no precipitation. Not sure we'll make it the whole game or not. I think enduring the weather is part of the experience, the people I;m going with may think otherwise. Go Zips!
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Have fun man, layer up… Look for the turnover tire…
 
1-2 start last night.

Not the start I was looking for but NIU couldn’t stop the run so just a flat out bad call despite the comeback. I probably didn’t even deserve the live cover with the Bulls considering all the Toledo turnovers in the red zone. Gonna try and find a new partner for my Zips ML this morning…
 
Some low ass totals tonight.

I usually like to go under when they're this low, but this IS the Mac.

Any leans on those Mars?
 
inZane said:
Some low ass totals tonight.

I usually like to go under when they're this low, but this IS the Mac.

Any leans on those Mars?
Click to expand...
Akron and Kent are just really bad teams with bad offenses. Maybe there's a bunch of turnovers with short fields but I don't see these teams making sustained drives. It's a stinker under bet or nothing. Other game I don't have a great feel for the total, probably small lean to the over just because its below 41 and I don't think weather will be an issue....
 
Kent State is 89th in stopping the run and has given up to the top back each week: 100 to UCF, 82 to Ark, 71 to Fresno, 65 to Ohio, 54 to Miami O, 47 to EMU, 84 to Buffalo.

#27 RB Lorenzo Lingard for Akron is a former Gator who had 113 vs Indiana and has been averaging about 49 in MAC play against better than what Kent trots out there...given that Kent has a bad run defense who has allowed every team to get a back to 54 except EMU...I don't think it's asking much for him to get to 54 here. Lingard will be the best offensive player in this game....faint praise but there you have it.

My prop play: Akron Zip #27 Lingard over 53.5 rush yards to win half unit -114
 
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I bet it after reading Mars opinion on DK and it was 50.5 -115 then and it still 50.5 -115 now on their app.
 
Marsski said:
Kent State is 89th in stopping the run and has given up to the top back each week: 100 to UCF, 82 to Ark, 71 to Fresno, 65 to Ohio, 54 to Miami O, 47 to EMU, 84 to Buffalo.

#27 RB Lorenzo Lingard for Akron is a former Gator who had 113 vs Indiana and has been averaging about 49 in MAC play against better than what Kent trots out there...given that Kent has a bad run defense who has allowed every team to get a back to 54 except EMU...I don't think it's asking much for him to get to 54 here. Lingard will be the best offensive player in this game....faint praise but there you have it.

My prop play: Akron Zip #27 Lingard over 53.5 rush yards to win half unit -114
Click to expand...

Now you speaking my language! Im assuming the low number of carry’s a result of they are typically getting their asses kicked? I don’t love his rather low number of carry’s a game and he gets lot his yards breaking off one nice run, that said I like the fact his team favored tonight as I def prefer rb’s in the fav roll, you think they more likely to have more rushing attempts playing a team as bad as them? Obviously I’d think if they have a lead late he should get more attempts. I don’t know shit bout these teams but in theory I can def see the merit in this one. This what I love bout props, sometimes we get numbers that set based off a guys avg but circumstances/matchup dictate it could be way low here!

Im super greedy so I’m eying some alt numbers. If you think he could have closer to 20 carry’s tonight opposed to the 10-15 he usually gets I’ll be all bout some 80+ at +370 and even a little 100+ at a lovely +900!!! You think he likely to get extra carry’s, the ones at end assuming they running out clock or will that amderson guy hog those?
 
2daBank said:
Now you speaking my language! Im assuming the low number of carry’s a result of they are typically getting their asses kicked? I don’t love his rather low number of carry’s a game and he gets lot his yards breaking off one nice run, that said I like the fact his team favored tonight as I def prefer rb’s in the fav roll, you think they more likely to have more rushing attempts playing a team as bad as them? Obviously I’d think if they have a lead late he should get more attempts. I don’t know shit bout these teams but in theory I can def see the merit in this one. This what I love bout props, sometimes we get numbers that set based off a guys avg but circumstances/matchup dictate it could be way low here!

Im super greedy so I’m eying some alt numbers. If you think he could have closer to 20 carry’s tonight opposed to the 10-15 he usually gets I’ll be all bout some 80+ at +370 and even a little 100+ at a lovely +900!!! You think he likely to get extra carry’s, the ones at end assuming they running out clock or will that amderson guy hog those?
Click to expand...
HE's the main back, Anderson just spells him...they have never had the lead so not sure what happens then (only slightly kidding)....I think gets 15-18 carries
 
Marsski said:
HE's the main back, Anderson just spells him...they have never had the lead so not sure what happens then (only slightly kidding)....I think gets 15-18 carries
Click to expand...

Sounds like a good spot to take a shot at a few alt numbers! I love getting that fat plus money!
 
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