MACtion Week 1 with Marsski

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
Good morning lads.

The greatest show on Earth is back. MACtion baby. Degenerates only!

I will be in with some breakdowns later today. Everyone is welcome to chime in.



Tuesday

BG
Chips +12.5 49

Miami O
Ball State +12 49


Wednesday

Ohio U
Kent State +18 52

NIU
W Mich +1.5 52
 
OK first game up is Bowling Green @ Chips. Seeing 14s on the board, o/u 48.5

BG has probably been the class of the league so far only losing to Penn State by 7, Texas A&M by 6 in the non conference.
Their lone MAC loss was when their QB got hurt in the first half vs NIU. Bazelak is back at QB and they spanked Toledo last week. Historically, he's pretty turnover prone but they have a complimentary running game with Stewart and Patterson. Fannin is a Mackey Finalist at TE who they will target a bunch.
Tough D but you can run on them a little bit especially the DL. Lockdown corner in Oladukon.

Central Michigan is playing a freshman QB Jefferson now after Labas and Bert Emannuel both went down. He's not very good and they will struggle against BG secondary. I do think they run it a little on BG but looking for BG to stack the box and dare the freshman to do something he hasn't shown he can do (132, 92, 62 passing yards with him in). The Chips D is frontloaded with a stronger front 7 and I think they can get some sacks and some tackles for loss to let them hang around for a while.

Rain is forecast for Mount Pleasant but the wind shouldn't be bad...


With the QB problems at CMU and BG's general excellent play, I'm not really interested in the dog. Not sure I want to lay the 14 though....I don't really love this game so gonna try a few half unit plays.

My plays:
CMU under 17 TT -115 half unit
BG/CMU under 48.5 half unit
Prop: #0 BG Fannin over 100 rec yards +112 (half unit)
 
Damn that a big number for te! The kid Gadsden from cuse bout only one I think I’ve played even above 80. I can get 90.5. Im assuming he one these hybrid types they split out and line up all over the field?

100+ is +118 on FanDuel)
 
Next game up: Miami Oh @ Ball State -11.5 to the away team, o/u 48.5

Miami has one of the two defenses in the MAC that is actually good along with NIU. Gabbert is playing in his 14th year for Miami at QB and if he gets a clean pocket he can be deadly. HOWEVAH, under pressure he pretty much crumbles. They have a conservative coach who loves to punt and play defense. I like their running game alot but the WRs really struggle to get separation--they just aren't that good.

Not gonna spend a lot of time breaking down Ball State other than to say they are LAST in the country in defensive yards per play given up at 7.4. They caught Vandy in a super flat spot otherwise given up 34,62,37,63,45,23...with the last game NIU -4 in turnovers or they would have scored more.

We're probably going to get some rain here as well.

I will lay the lumber here.

My play:
Miami OH -11.5 to win 1 unit
 
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They have the cmu qb Jefferson listed at 36.5 rush yards, if BG can get sacks which it looks like they should, and if they stacking box to make him throw the under might not be a bad play here?
 
2daBank said:
Damn that a big number for te! The kid Gadsden from cuse bout only one I think I’ve played even above 80. I can get 90.5. Im assuming he one these hybrid types they split out and line up all over the field?

100+ is +118 on FanDuel)
Click to expand...
I took 100+ because he has five games this year with 135 or better. He runs great routes, they split him out a little. I think he gets at least 10 targets.
 
2daBank said:
They have the cmu qb Jefferson listed at 36.5 rush yards, if BG can get sacks which it looks like they should, and if they stacking box to make him throw the under might not be a bad play here?
Click to expand...
They do try and run zone read with him some....the Bobcats were spying on him and kept him bottled him. I lean that way especially with the sack yardage...
 
Marsski said:
I took 100+ because he has five games this year with 135 or better. He runs great routes, they split him out a little. I think he gets at least 10 targets.
Click to expand...

The wr Malcom Johnson is interesting to me as well, his number only 40.5, he has hit that 3 of last 4 and cmu has given up some huge games to wrs.
 
Marsski said:
They do try and run zone read with him some....the Bobcats were spying on him and kept him bottled him. I lean that way especially with the sack yardage...
Click to expand...

When I was mostly using draft kings they weren’t offering unders just jacked up overs so I just avoided the hell out a qb rushing if I was concerned w sacks but now that I have a number I can play unders I been hunting for qb’s I think have potential to take some sacks. Coulda killed for this last couple years with Milroe as he was the worst about not just taking sacks but making them huge negative yards as he keep running backwards. Actually I think that when DK stopped offering unders, lol.
 
2daBank said:
The wr Malcom Johnson is interesting to me as well, his number only 40.5, he has hit that 3 of last 4 and cmu has given up some huge games to wrs.
Click to expand...
You're pretty big play dependent with him....he just doesnt get that many touches. They have a deep rotation and Fannin is #1 option so just hard to predict who gets the ball after him.
 
Marsski said:
You're pretty big play dependent with him....he just doesnt get that many touches. They have a deep rotation and Fannin is #1 option so just hard to predict who gets the ball after him.
Click to expand...

Thst prob a problem w rain also. Thanks.

One more question :)

am I crazy or does 92.5 feel very doable for mozee? Ball st giving up freaking 6ypc. Only thing that I don’t love while he been smashing that number he has busted a big run in a lot those games, he doesn’t appear to be a volume runner but I gotta think to give up 6ypc ball st has prob given up some long ones!
 
2daBank said:
Thst prob a problem w rain also. Thanks.

One more question :)

am I crazy or does 92.5 feel very doable for mozee? Ball st giving up freaking 6ypc. Only thing that I don’t love while he been smashing that number he has busted a big run in a lot those games, he doesn’t appear to be a volume runner but I gotta think to give up 6ypc ball st has prob given up some long ones!
Click to expand...
Yes. He will need to break off a big one but Ball D is trash.
 
2-2 last night. We probably should have got the Fannin prop home for a winning night but such is life in MACtion.


NIU @ W Michigan, Home dog +2, o/u 52

Tricky little game in Kalamazoo with the MAC's only undefeated team in Western Michigan against one of the unluckiest in NIU.

Western has got to 4-0 by beating the absolute dregs of Ball State, Akron, Buffalo and Kent while collecting +9 overall in turnovers across the four games. They have a decent QB Wolfe who has a 15-3 TD/INT ratio and they run it very well (top 20 in rushing). They seem on paper to have one of the best offenses in the MAC but is it a function of who they have played? WMich defense is nothing to get excited about as they are 100 vs run and 118 vs pass. Classic MAC over team here with good offense, bad defense.


NIU had one of the league's best wins in winning at Notre Dame when QB Hampton played terrific. He's been banged up and missed some time as have some other key players like RB Brown and TE Rudolph. Those guys are all back now and healthy and will be a big part of a rush heavy attack that likes to line up multiple TEs. NIU has lost all four games by 7 or less but outgained Buffalo, NC State and Toledo in doing so. They have an actual good defense that held up well vs NC state and ND. They will be definitely the toughest test in the MAC that Western has seen.

One note that could be big: NIU special teams has been awful, they have given up 5 blocked kicks.

I think you can make a case for either team here, but NIU clearly has the MUCH better defense. I like that Hampton is back to playing after getting knocked out vs. BG as well as Brown and Rudolph.

Lean to NIU -2 as I get the better D and an offense that should match up decent with Western; gonna watch the lines for now.
Possibly look to play Brown over 82 rush yards vs. 100th ranked rush defense.

ADDED: NIU -2.5 to win 1 unit
 
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Marsski said:
2-2 last night. We probably should have got the Fannin prop home for a winning night but such is life in MACtion.


NIU @ W Michigan, Home dog +2, o/u 52

Tricky little game in Kalamazoo with the MAC's only undefeated team in Western Michigan against one of the unluckiest in NIU.

Western has got to 4-0 by beating the absolute dregs of Ball State, Akron, Buffalo and Kent while collecting +9 overall in turnovers across the four games. They have a decent QB Wolfe who has a 15-3 TD/INT ratio and they run it very well (top 20 in rushing). They seem on paper to have one of the best offenses in the MAC but is it a function of who they have played? WMich defense is nothing to get excited about as they are 100 vs run and 118 vs pass. Classic MAC over team here with good offense, bad defense.


NIU had one of the league's best wins in winning at Notre Dame when QB Hampton played terrific. He's been banged up and missed some time as have some other key players like RB Brown and TE Rudolph. Those guys are all back now and healthy and will be a big part of a rush heavy attack that likes to line up multiple TEs. NIU has lost all four games by 7 or less but outgained Buffalo, NC State and Toledo in doing so. They have an actual good defense that held up well vs NC state and ND. They will be definitely the toughest test in the MAC that Western has seen.

One note that could be big: NIU special teams has been awful, they have given up 5 blocked kicks.

I think you can make a case for either team here, but NIU clearly has the MUCH better defense. I like that Hampton is back to playing after getting knocked out vs. BG as well as Brown and Rudolph.

Lean to NIU -2 as I get the better D and an offense that should match up decent with Western; gonna watch the lines for now.
Possibly look to play Brown over 82 rush yards vs. 100th ranked rush defense.
Click to expand...
Really looking forward to this one. WMU also at Bowling Green next week so could be in for a couple dumps in the road.
Would like a weather report if possible . GL!
 
I can’t bet Illinios schools so that kinda sucks.

i blame me for our te not getting over his yards, I was acting like it was in the bag in 2nd qrtr! Fuck he had 70ish yards before half. Nothing after I ran my mouth.

They got me with Jefferson rush yards. They didn’t let him throw enough to get sacked then put another qb in when it was must throw time!

I did get mozee even tho his longest run was 25! Luckily he got way more volume than usual!

So im stuck looking at this garbage kent st game. Obviously Ohio props the only place to look but shit they don’t have any running backs that consistently get ball., the qb the runner, his total around 70, Kent st d so bad it seems like they can do whatever they want. His passing total under 200 but he doesn’t consistently throw a ton. Kent gives up freaking 280 rush yards a game, dunno how Navarro doesn’t get his? Dicey to trust Ohio passing game week to week but again they playing what has to be the worst defense in the ncaa! How does owen not have a huge game? Ohio has to put up the points somehow. Navarro rushing, Owen rec yards and td. Dunno what else to do with that game?
 
2daBank said:
I can’t bet Illinios schools so that kinda sucks.

i blame me for our te not getting over his yards, I was acting like it was in the bag in 2nd qrtr! Fuck he had 70ish yards before half. Nothing after I ran my mouth.

They got me with Jefferson rush yards. They didn’t let him throw enough to get sacked then put another qb in when it was must throw time!

I did get mozee even tho his longest run was 25! Luckily he got way more volume than usual!

So im stuck looking at this garbage kent st game. Obviously Ohio props the only place to look but shit they don’t have any running backs that consistently get ball., the qb the runner, his total around 70, Kent st d so bad it seems like they can do whatever they want. His passing total under 200 but he doesn’t consistently throw a ton. Kent gives up freaking 280 rush yards a game, dunno how Navarro doesn’t get his? Dicey to trust Ohio passing game week to week but again they playing what has to be the worst defense in the ncaa! How does owen not have a huge game? Ohio has to put up the points somehow. Navarro rushing, Owen rec yards and td. Dunno what else to do with that game?
Click to expand...
I don't really like Navarro props because he doesn't pass downfield that much or that consistently. And I don't like his rushing number because it's high and sack yardage could come into play. I think they will load up the wagon for RB Rickey Hunt anyway with the starter Tyus out.
If you made me play a Bobcats prop, I would take Coleman Owen over 67 receiving yards. He's a shifty transfer who they play in the slot and he can get a high volume of touches. His numbers have fallen off a little but I would expect big plays in the passing game tonight given Kent's awful defense and he's the most likely recipient.
To be clear, I'm not betting it but that's the route I would take if I wanted to play something props-wise...
 
Ohio U. at Kent, Home dog catching +20.5, O/U 52.5


OK, lets talk about my Bobcats.
We pretty much lost everyone to graduation and the transfer portal as $1 Coors Light on Court Street aren't exactly the draw they once were for today's athletes.
It was hard to know what to expect from the Bobcats, but they have shown a capable running game and a defensive front 7 that is top 40 in line yards and rush success rate. Tyus is out possibly for the year and I would expect Rickey HUnt to get the carries. He had a HUGE bowl game last year as an early enrollee and has been splitting carries in a rotation. He's very talented so not worried about a dropoff here from Tyus.
QB Navarro is more of a running QB than a passer, and he is just very inconsistent in the pocket. He's not very trustworthy but may hold up OK considering the quality of the defense he is facing this week. He's been benched a few times this year already and has a 7 TD, 7 INT ratio.
This feels like a game to me when OU gets a big lead and just sits on the ball. I will be looking to play a 2H under if OU is up a full score or more at half.

Kent is total trash--they are last in the NCAA in rushing at 2.4 yards per carry, and will get stuffed by the Bobcats run D. Their bright spot is probably WR McCray on the outside but they are now playing their 3rd QB in Ulatowski who is wildly inconsistent. To be fair, whoever is playing QB is pretty much always running for his life. I just don't see how Kent can muster much offense here as the Bobcats DL should dominate in the trenches.

I could only have the Bobcats but do I really want to lay the 20.5? It's a gross number....

My Play;
Under 52.5 for a half unit. And look to come in with a second half under bet if the Bobcats have a lead.
 
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Marsski said:
I don't really like Navarro props because he doesn't pass downfield that much or that consistently. And I don't like his rushing number because it's high and sack yardage could come into play. I think they will load up the wagon for RB Rickey Hunt anyway with the starter Tyus out.
If you made me play a Bobcats prop, I would take Coleman Owen over 67 receiving yards. He's a shifty transfer who they play in the slot and he can get a high volume of touches. His numbers have fallen off a little but I would expect big plays in the passing game tonight given Kent's awful defense and he's the most likely recipient.
To be clear, I'm not betting it but that's the route I would take if I wanted to play something props-wise...
Click to expand...

Appreciate it buddy
 
I've been burned too many times by these big chalks on the road who come out blazing and then proceed to lay down in the 2nd half just to get the win.
 
Marsski said:
I don't really like Navarro props because he doesn't pass downfield that much or that consistently. And I don't like his rushing number because it's high and sack yardage could come into play. I think they will load up the wagon for RB Rickey Hunt anyway with the starter Tyus out.
If you made me play a Bobcats prop, I would take Coleman Owen over 67 receiving yards. He's a shifty transfer who they play in the slot and he can get a high volume of touches. His numbers have fallen off a little but I would expect big plays in the passing game tonight given Kent's awful defense and he's the most likely recipient.
To be clear, I'm not betting it but that's the route I would take if I wanted to play something props-wise...
Click to expand...

I had to play Navarro rushing I just couldn’t help it, wouldn’t think he get sacked! they didn’t have a number for hunt but I played him to score a td. Put the most on Owen rec since we both liked, played his reg number and 100+ for nice payout, he has had several games over 100. Navarro been running 10+ times most games, against Kent st d he should bust at least one for big yardage. It just seems like they been putting a great deal the offense on Navarro shoulders and fuck, I’m not sure there a duel threat qb in the country that couldn’t put up monster numbers on this Kent st d! Your bobcats going for over 200 a game on ground, Kent st gives up well over 200, and Navarro has really been the most consistent producer in the run game. I’ll feel like a total idiot if he don’t get it cause I respect your opinion on the Mac more than even my own!! Thanks for taking the time and hope all your plays cash brotha
 
skanless13 said:
First time actually checking out this thread. Won’t be my last time. Good shit!
Click to expand...

Oh yea, mars knows the Mac! When they take over Tuesday and wed i gotta pick his brain cause outside when they play a big boy early I don’t know shit bout these teams,,few more Tuesdays and maybe I’ll have some idea! Not like Mars knows these guys tho
 
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