MACtion Title Game and others with Marsski

[Marsski]

YTD: 7-5 last week, pre was about 64%

Well, nothing to write home about last week but managed to eek out a profit in college thanks mainly to the Buckeyes....

This will be my last CFB thread for the year. I normally get killed in bowl games so I won't bother with posting my plays.
I really haven't done my usual prep for hoops season yet, but you can look for me to start getting involved over in that forum beginning sometime this week. MAC hoops is my speciality.

I appreciate very much everyone who came in here and debated, discussed, argued, praised or just said what up. It's been a fun and profitable year.

I hope that if you don't post much that you will consider adding your thoughts to this community. I was a long-time lurker who has got more involved the past two years and I think its made me a better handicapper.

The Big One for me, of course, this week is Kent against NIU. I think its a tough match-up for Kent because the whole running QB, spread option is tough for them to defend. They are stout up the middle (Nix), but weaker in run support on the edges. As I said last week, they much prefer to defend a smash-mouth Rutgers style...
Still, how can you go against Dri Archer? He's had the best season of anyone in college football in my opinion, and certainly is the most explosive player in the MAC. Spencer Keith has been capable, they have a couple of decent WRs and a grinder RB to go with Archer. Turnover margin was leading the country for a while...and they can run stop. Great team. I fear Hazell may be on his way to Purdue or Colorado or somewhere bigger...if so good for him, he deserves it.

The spread I saw was 5, and at that price the bet is Kent...if it dropped under 3 I might reconsider.

Look for Archer to return punts this week.

Leans
Ville +2.5
Kent +5
Cincy -6
Pitt -6
Boise -9
C Fla +1
Bama -8
Wisky +3


Final Week Card goes here:

Dri Archer U. for 2 units-- +5 for 1 unit, +7.5 for 1 unit (-115)
LVille/Butgers Over 43 for 1.5 units
Prop: Dri Archer Over 80.5 rush yards for half unit (-115)
Dri Archer U. over 25 pts for half unit (-115)
Roll Tide -7 for 1 unit (-115)
Pitt Panthers -6.5 for 1 unit
Ok State -4 for 1 unit
Roll Tide (football)/Big Blue (hoops) ML parlay for 1 unit to win .73
Boise -7 for 1 unit (-120)

 

[Elbutre88]

dammit! why am i the only one on here fading kent? i feel like i'm cheating on my spouse or something. But like i was telling hunt, i think the talent gap is just too much for the flashes to over come. Now that our sensai is against me, i'm feeling really foolish.

with you on cincy, bama, and loving wisky here. GL brother. thanks for all the info this year.

 

[Marsski]

dammit! why am i the only one on here fading kent? i feel like i'm cheating on my spouse or something. But like i was telling hunt, i think the talent gap is just too much for the flashes to over come. Now that our sensai is against me, i'm feeling really foolish.

with you on cincy, bama, and loving wisky here. GL brother. thanks for all the info this year.

I don't see a talent gap on defense at all. Very comparable defenses in my opinion.
When you parse the stats, remember that NIU played weaker MAC schedule--the only 2 good teams in the west are Ball and Toledo. Kent's schedule was much tougher in my opinion.
Agree NIU is more talented on offense but they don't have #1...

 

[Marsski]

Thanks for your thoughts this year Elbutre88...I'm liking Wisky as well. Ground game should be there vs Corn.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

dammit! why am i the only one on here fading kent? i feel like i'm cheating on my spouse or something. But like i was telling hunt, i think the talent gap is just too much for the flashes to over come. Now that our sensai is against me, i'm feeling really foolish.

with you on cincy, bama, and loving wisky here. GL brother. thanks for all the info this year.

I like Nilly quite a bit here as well.

 

[Elbutre88]

i'm only talking about the offensive side of the ball. NIU's D is still pretty solid, but Kent D vs the spread? I also think NIU will follow Ohio's D gameplan, without giving Kent 2 touchdowns. I think NIU pulls away closer to the end of the game. Their 3rd down conversion rate is crazy, and really think that'll extend drives and wear Kent St's D down. but again, strength of schedule plays into their 3rd conversion rate. so i hear what you're saying. and so does everyone else, considering the line movement.

--jumponboard, good to see i've got allies!!

 

[JumpOnBoard]

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Jeremy Guy‏<s style="text-decoration: initial; color: rgb(187, 187, 187);">@</s>JGuyMAC
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Orange Bowl reps just called and will be sending representatives to this Friday's Marathon MAC Football Championship. Things just got real.

 

[Marsski]

i'm only talking about the offensive side of the ball. NIU's D is still pretty solid, but Kent D vs the spread? I also think NIU will follow Ohio's D gameplan, without giving Kent 2 touchdowns. I think NIU pulls away closer to the end of the game. Their 3rd down conversion rate is crazy, and really think that'll extend drives and wear Kent St's D down. but again, strength of schedule plays into their 3rd conversion rate. so i hear what you're saying. and so does everyone else, considering the line movement.

--jumponboard, good to see i've got allies!!

I know it was a long time ago, but NIU's defense gave up 40 to Army, 23 to Kansas...makes me wonder about the D line/front 7...Toledo had creases as well

 

[Marsski]

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Jeremy Guy‏<S style="COLOR: rgb(187,187,187)">@</S>JGuyMAC
​

Orange Bowl reps just called and will be sending representatives to this Friday's Marathon MAC Football Championship. Things just got real.

WOW...Orange Bowl is Big East champ vs. At Large?

 

[HUNT]

Marsski, let's get it. Get over in CBB soon.

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Good luck Mars, your MAC insight has been an excellent asset to the site bro

 

[Timh]

Mars - Great job this year, gl this week and look forward to having you over in the CBB forum.

 

[Marsski]

Thanks Hunt, Silk and Tim...

Pulled the trigger on Kent...I think you can make a case for both sides but I have lingering questions about the quality of NIUs defensive front 7 and Kent has been very very good in the turnover battle...I make NIU a slight favorite on a N...and wouldn't be surprised if Kent has more of the crowd in Detroit.

The Play: Kent St +5 for 1 unit

 

[Play2win]

lean Kent St, agree on Wisc. BOL this week Marsski.

 

[bloodhound]

Thank U for being here this season Mars....ur thread has been an interesting read every wk. I have enjoyed our 'back & forth' this yr

At least drop by doing bowl season and help the ole hound out a bit

on Boise, Pitt and Bama with u

GL my friend :tiphat:

 

[Marsski]

BOL to you as well Play2win...

Hound--I have enjoyed it as well old timer. You need some work on your MAC capping but otherwise you are a beast. (That means good nowadays...)

ADD:

Bama -7 for 1 unit (-115)

 

[misschung]

Anyone else from CTG goin to the MAC championship game on Friday? Think im gonna take my 80 yr old grandpa to the game (he started me bettin on sports when i was 5).

Glad to see that you are on KEnt St in the game. I saw a few people I respect playing No Ill but I really wanted to back kent st in the game since they have been cashing for me all year long.

 

[daveniner]

Thanks, for your insight. I was not impressed with the NI defense. Their offense was impressive, but I think Kent can score on them. I just wonder if it will be enough to keep up.

 

[Marsski]

Anyone else from CTG goin to the MAC championship game on Friday? Think im gonna take my 80 yr old grandpa to the game (he started me bettin on sports when i was 5).

Glad to see that you are on KEnt St in the game. I saw a few people I respect playing No Ill but I really wanted to back kent st in the game since they have been cashing for me all year long.

Not me brother, I betcha tickets will be cheap though. I think its great to take your Gramps, I took my Grandpa to a Tribe game last year and had a blast with him.

I think Kent catching the pts is the way to go but opinions seem divided on this board...probably means its a pretty good line.

 

[Marsski]

Thanks, for your insight. I was not impressed with the NI defense. Their offense was impressive, but I think Kent can score on them. I just wonder if it will be enough to keep up.

Wondering that myself as well as how the turnover battle plays out...probably needs to swing Kent's way but they have been very ball hawkish this year...

 

[Marsski]

1 TD in the last 10 quarters for S Fla, and the back-up was not impressive at all vs. Cincy...Pitt has a decent defense and a good running game...Doubt Skip Holtz can get his bunch turned aorund here and Pitt has a .500 season and a bowl game to play for...didnt want it to move to 7

Pick: Pitt -6.5 for 1 unit

 

[Marsski]

ADD: Second unit on Kent State +7.5 (-115)...surprised it went above 7

 

[Marsski]

Louieville games have landed on 46, 42, 63, 49, 38 (played in monsoon), 80, 52, 65, 62, 71 and 43 (3OT).

Bridgewater wrist injury is a concern but on non throwing hand...I think he plays but it does worry me I admit...

I think this is only the second or third total I have played all year but with Lville's explosive offense and somewhat suspect defense I have a hard time seeing this stay under 50...Think we see a better Rutgers on offensive side of the ball with their RB returned tonight

Play: Lville/Butgers over 43 for 1.5 units

 

[Marsski]

Remaining leans

Ok State
Boise St
C Fla
Wisky

 

[Elbutre88]

ADD: Second unit on Kent State +7.5 (-115)...surprised it went above 7

oh goddammit.

 

[cashflowmatters]

Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts, always appreciate & look forward to your threads. Nice work this year & good luck going forward :tiphat:

 

[Marsski]

Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts, always appreciate & look forward to your threads. Nice work this year & good luck going forward :tiphat:

Thanks man. I appreciate it...

Tough break on the total last night, Bridgewater being so hobbled really hurt and LV defense played better than I expected...

ADD:

Prop: Dri Archer Over 80.5 rush yards for half unit (-115)

 

[Marsski]

ADD: Kent State over 25 points for half unit (-115)

 

[HUNT]

flash night.

 

[misschung]

best football game i have saw in person. love me some classic mac football

 

[Marsski]

best football game i have saw in person. love me some classic mac football

It was a doozy wasn't it...kind of thought Kent would win once it got to OT...NIU did a real nice job on Archer but it left 1 on 1s all over the place...

 

[Marsski]

Passing on C Fla...like it but Tim and others prefer Tulsa and game two weeks ago was overwhelmingly Tulsa in the stats. I dont watch these teams.

I got a D3 guy I'm trying to reach today about the playoffs. Stony Brook catching pts seems like a good one considering they beat Army and nearly beat Cuse...I see Bullsheet likes it too

 

[HUNT]

crazy game..gl today brother.

 

[Silkydiamonds]

Good luck today Mars

 

[Marsski]

Thanks Hunt and Silk...good luck to y'all as well...

ADD:

Ok State -4 for 1 unit...Took a bite when I saw a 4...Not a Baylor believer, total is 88.5 LOL...I think Ok State gets to 50

ML Parlay: Roll Tide/Big Blue (CBB) for 1 unit to win .73

 

[Marsski]

ADD:

Boise -7 for 1 unit (-120)

 

[Marsski]

May add Wisky but like to get 3.5 which I haven't seen yet...like Kent in hoops tonight