MAC Conference Discussion

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
This league is generally unpredictable every season, so let's see if we can pinpoint the strengths and weaknesses of some of these teams.
 
Ill just start it off simple. CMU gets a new coach who used to be their OC. Just came over from West Virginia where he was there WR coach.

LeFevour stepped in last year at QB and impressed the hell out of me. As a true frosh coming in and tearing up and looking poise like he did against some very good defenses I think hes going to have another great year. RB Ontario Sneed also has played 2 full seasons already and has shown he can be a factor in the MAC.
 
signal, sorry but something came up which is why I didn't come back to the thread. I'll be back tomorrow morning for some discussion.
 
Thats cool D. Hope everythings all right. Ill talk to you tommorow
 
Western Michigan is gonna win the West Division. Central lost a good portion of both their offensive and defensive lines. We'll get more into western i'm sure later. But the division will probably come down to their meeting in kalamazoo in november and I would be suprised if Western lost at home where they were 5-0 last year, especially to a rival like cmu.
 
I like Toledo's team a lot this season. With even average QB play they will win the division and conference. They were -4 in TOs against both aforementioned directional schools which lead to their demise. That will not happen again. WMU can't score so I would take it with a grain of salt that all their major pieces are back and Hiller won't look as good w/o Jennings and Scheffler. I do prefer their defense to anyone else in the conference though. While I agree with PS that they are probably the most complete team, I disagree with some of his unit rankings, namely the fact that nobody else's OL is as good as the Rockets let alone two in the division (NIU and WMU) being on par with them. I also have a serious objection to the Huskies backers being listed as the best in the conference. CMU, I will grant you but not Novak's group, they're a bunch of turds. Off the top of my head I can think of 3 LB corps that I would prefer to NIU. Akron being at the top of the list.
 
Garf--Have to agree on Toledo. I have them picked to finish as good as 10-2 with wins over 2 non-conf opponents.

Is it me or is the top of the MAC West a whole lot stronger than the top of the East?
 
Few thoughts on this shadeball conference. I don't have the stats but I am sure someone knows it. Last yr, Underdogs in the MAC were something like 26-14 in conference play at one point in the season. Don't know where they finished but I am pretty positive the stat is overwhelming.

I think the MAC East is a complete joke. You know what you are getting with Temple and Buffalo. Akron has just one starter back on the OL and a new QB. Ohio lacked any type of dominant offense last yr, despite outgaining opponents by 60yards a game (a stat I am surprised to read). They have the fewest starters back in the MAC but have a solid RB and play tough defense. BGSU is going to be a little tough for teams to defend, Turner can run and throw, they have their RB back, lost 2 of top 3 receivers but also get 8 guys back on defense. Should be one of the tougher teams in the MAC and a shot to win the East. Miami(OH) was an inexperienced group last yr and it showed in their 2-6 finished in MAC play. They were hit a little hard at WR, they need a RB to step up, and their defense was weak against the rush last yr and only returns 6 guys this year. I think they are #3-4 in this side of the conference. Kent ST is the last team in this division and they prob have one of the top 2 qb's in the league with Julian Elderman, a dangerous threat with his feet but needs to improve on his 10td-11int ratio and 55.4% completion percentage. Kent ST also loses their best receiver, leading receiver with experience has 222yards and they lost 5 of their top 10 tacklers but do return 8 starters back on defense. The defense was tough last yr and gave up an avg of 20.1 points a game so they will be one of the better defenses this yr with 8 starters back. Maybe a good under team in MAC play. They will be tough on defense and the majority of their offense will come on the ground.

Thoughts on the tougher MAC West later
 
Garf--Have to agree on Toledo. I have them picked to finish as good as 10-2 with wins over 2 non-conf opponents.

Is it me or is the top of the MAC West a whole lot stronger than the top of the East?

Yeah, its really not even close. Tol, WMU, and CMU could all win the East with NIU and even Ball State competitively challenging. EMU might be the worst team in the conference though regardless of division.
 
Few thoughts on this shadeball conference. I don't have the stats but I am sure someone knows it. Last yr, Underdogs in the MAC were something like 26-14 in conference play at one point in the season. Don't know where they finished but I am pretty positive the stat is overwhelming.

I'm glad you said that, because it made me go back and check. And yes it was very one-sided, dogs won outright at almost 40% and covered at about 60%.
 
I'm glad you said that, because it made me go back and check. And yes it was very one-sided, dogs won outright at almost 40% and covered at about 60%.

Ya, I do remember seeing that stat for sure just don't have the numbers. I will say that if you take CMU out of the mix it prob makes the numbers even more lopsided since they were always a favorite and an ATS machine
 
Pags-you should get scared. This and the Belt are the two most crooked conferences around.

RJ-the divisional imbalance is horrid this year.

Personally I have spent a solid 15 minutes total on this conference so far. I hate it and hate betting on it other than the Chips last year. We all know the history. Either way though I'll be back in a few with some general thoughts.
 
I'll have my thoughts as we get closer to kickoff but I am much more in-tune with this league than I have been since I moved to Costa Rica and I am now back in good contact with most media people at the major outlets in Ohio and Mishitgan ...

One thing - and it was touched upon earlier.

I see Toledo, Northern, Western, Central and Ball State as all better than ANYONE from the East.

The new conference scheduling puts emphasis on division games - which it should, considering you have 13 teams now. Get to 14 for fuck's sake. You'd think this commissioner is about as inept as Jerry Jackass (see late 90s).... So the non-division games are only good for a tie-breaker if the first 3 or 4 don't decide the division winners... if I'm not mistaken....
 
Garf--Have to agree on Toledo. I have them picked to finish as good as 10-2 with wins over 2 non-conf opponents.

Is it me or is the top of the MAC West a whole lot stronger than the top of the East?

I think Toledo will be very solid this year as well. My only worry is Assmunch doesn't put a lot of credence into OOC games. He is much more concerned with a league title. That has shown over the years.
 
Alright, I don't get to write about these teams, so I will contribute here...

I'm a big fan of Toledo to win the West, just like Garfather. I think they will more than likely lose at CMU (I think they'd have a much better chance if this game was played late in the season), but they get NIU and Western Michigan at home, where they are an unbelievable 30-4 under Amstutz. According to PS, they will have 6 senior starters on both offense and defense, so it's clear leadership will be there. I anticipate their return to the top of the conference.

Western Michigan is the best overall team IMO, but they have to travel to Toledo. That kills them, especially considering Toledo has a little revenge after a WMU blowout last year. Their D does look damn good, and I think they'll be very tough. I just think it kills them that they travel to Toledo (they also go to NIU).

I expect a disappointing year from CMU. Yeah, yeah, the offense returns quite a bit, but the defense will be weaker and they take a big hit with the loss of Kelly. They'll still be good, but I don't see a division title in their future.

Maybe I'm an idiot, but Ohio's coaching advantage is so big over everyone else in the MAC East I have to give them consideration for winning the division. I think Bower will be a suitable replacement at QB and they return McRae, so I don't see them falling off much on offense, and the defense should be okay if they can just get decent LB play from the new guys. They only lost 1 conference game before the MAC title game last year, so they've got a little bit of swagger coming into this year I would think.

I expect both Miami and Bowling Green to be much better than last year, although their schedules aren't exactly walks in the park. I'm absolutely not a believer in Kent State - yeah, they went on a little run in the middle of last year, but started to show their true colors again late when they were hammered by Ohio, Buffalo, and Ball State. I think they finish 3rd or 4th in the division.
 
B.A.R.,

I completely agree. I only bet two games involving MAC teams all year last year and took Troy in the Bowl game...I just don't see a whole lot of reason to bet the Sun Belt and the MAC...
 
B.A.R.,

I completely agree. I only bet two games involving MAC teams all year last year and took Troy in the Bowl game...I just don't see a whole lot of reason to bet the Sun Belt and the MAC...

No doubt. I like the belt..have a good feel for thoe shavin kids..not as much for MAC
 
I dug the stats up, look at this bullshit..(I am a chalk lover)..I may never in my life lay chalk in this conference again and I am considering blindly betting every dog.

I did not include games with Temple since this yr is their first in the MAC.I also did not include games CMU was a favorite as they were actually a legit ATS team. Here is the breakdown..

ATS: Underdogs were 27-13-2
Straight Up: Underdogs were 18-9

Road Favs ATS: 6-8-2
Road Favs SU: 5-7-2
 
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looks like dog days in the mac lately eh greeny ?
this was the one conference that kicked my booty last year. was on wrong side of eastern michigan every game it seemed.
 
Ya know who is another team impossible to get a read on.. Toledo. They have some of the most bizarre games.

Lose by 2 in double OT to Iowa St 45-43
Lose as 10 point favorite to West Mich 31-10
Beat Kansas as 4 point favorite in OT 37-31
Lose to CM as 2 point favorite 42-20
Lose to Kent St 40-14 as 7point dog
Lose to Eastern Michigan as 1point dog 17-13.
Beat Akron 35-20 as 4point dogs
Beat No Ill 17-13 as 12 point dogs

They were the only team Eastern Michigan beat.
 
that is a weird looking set of games and outcomes.
did you see the toledo kansas gamel ast year? kansas beat the living shit out of them. kansas should have won by atleast 14 in that one but toledo not only won the game but covered the 4 in ot. strange game
 
Here is my outlook:

I think that the East is being under rated here. They will be much better this year and will have a few solid teams....I will discuss more team that I know a lot about- all Ohio teams(Akron, Kent, BGSU, Toledo, Ohio).

One thing that I disagree with Linde, is the coaching asepct you talked about. You said that Ohio has a HUGE advantage in this department (as far as East teams). Kent and Akron have two of the best young coaches around. J.D. Brookhart has brought the top recruiting classes in the MAC (East or West) the last 3 years. He was a recruiter/assistant at Pitt before coming to Akron a few years back. He has taken a team that was the laughing stock of the MAC(let alone the nation) and turned them into a good program. In his short 3 years, they have won the MAC East (and championship) and went to a bowl game. Also, they traveled and beat NC State in front of a hostile crowd. Yes, they were 5-7 last year but you have to expect that with a new team. They have some very solid parts returning. Also, they might have the best defense in the MAC. You throw these things in with the ammount of young talent, they will be a tough opponent....

Akron


All over I see people saying how Akron is over hyped every year. They are not really over hyped but undervalue by the public IMO. When I say undervalued I mean because a lot of people do not see what is going on in the AK Rowdy. You guys, this program has been building the last three years (ever since JD Brookhardt took over). Yes, last years 5-7 mark was a slipup BUT that happens to programs that are building. They have sent 2 QB to the NFL in the L4 years. Brookhardt is one of the best young coaches in the MAC/NCAA IMO. 2 years ago, they won the MAC East and made their first bowl appearance ever. They have had a Top 70 recruiting class in each of the L3 years (#1 in the MAC since Brookhardt has been there). On campus they have built a brand new training facility/Rec Center. When it was built it was said to be a top 3 Rec Center in the natinon (as far as features and technology). http://www3.uakron.edu/onat/srwc/home/reccenter.html Anyways, expectations around this football team are big again…

OFFENSE

QB Supposedly, this is still a 3 man race between Freshmen Sean Hakes, and Sophomores Carlton Jackson and Chris Jaquemain. All of these guys have plenty of talent and showed it throughout the Spring. Hakes is a strong armed kid that was pretty highly touted after wining back to back state titles in high school. Jaquemain lost out to Jackson last year (when they were freshies) for the number 2 slot. The guy I like the most is Jackson- he is fast as hell and has a decent arm. He got a little PT last year but often worked with the number 1s. From what I hear, he is going to start Game one against Army but I wouldn’t rule out multiple QB s getting an opportunity.

RB Dennis Kennedy is the main man in a talented backfield. He ran for nearly 1000 yards and caught 39 balls for nearly 200 yards (11 games). Andre Walker, last years backup, will see a push from Bryan Williams and Alex Allen. Allen missed the majority (maybe all?) with an injury. Williams is a beast! He is a local kid from Akron’s west side who was a pretty touted recruit of Pitt. After getting in some trouble and not having the grades he went to a military academy. He seems to have his shit together and should get many touches. Though Akron struggled, as a team, on the ground last year I expect much more success this season.
WR Jabari Arthur (was a QB, I think he should start at that spot but it is irrelevant what I think) returns after leading the Zips in receptions a year ago. He was player of the year in Canada his senior year. David Harvey seems to be the big question mark coming into this season. He was a beast last year (120 all purpose yards per game) as a freshman. He led the team with nearly 1000 receiving yards. His status to return is in question right now…At TE the Zips have two very viable players: Merce Poindexter and Kris Kasperek

OL After losing Andy Alleman to the Saints (3<SUP>rd</SUP> round pick), the Zips have questions upfront. One thing is sure Chris Kemme will be back (Second Team All MAC). They do have 3 starters back and they also have a couple of seniors that have played multiple positions, as backups, throughout their careers. There is also 3 or 4 true freshman that will compete for spots. The chemistry of these guys upfront will be key for this offense…
KICKER This was an area of trouble for the Zips last year. They do have one of the top kickers in the nation coming in this year. He is from Serbia or Bosnia or somewhere like that….

DEFENSE

This defense returns 8 starters and should do a great job…
DL They have a tackle and end back that did well a year ago. With young talent (the recruits from past), this should be a pretty completive line
LB The best core in the MAC are back and ready to rock Doug Williams (LB the DL last year) as slimmed down and will be back at LB this season. He will team up with two players that had phenomenal seasons a year ago (SAM Brion Stokes 79 Tackles and MIDDLE Kevin Grant 87 Tackles). Behind these 3, the Zips return 2 backups from a season ago. Akron also have 3 incoming Freshmen that expect to see some action.

DB The cupboard is stocked at this spot too. My boy John Mackey (many of you might remember DeAngelo Williams breaking him 2 years ago lol) is a Mike Doss type Safety/Rover. Not saying he is Doss but he is a big hitter that lead this team in tackles a season ago…blitzes a lot. Reggie Corner, (who plays corner) Davanzo Tate, and Andre Jones are all returning starters in this secondary. Once again they have 3 backups with experience and plenty of young freshmen that will help.

CONCLUSION

Ultimately Akron’s success will rely on it’s offensive line. IF they can take care of the ball and run the ball they will have a chance to have a very good season. The pieces are in order, it is just about execution now. This defense is loaded guys. I can see a couple of shutouts with this schedule (meaning the MAC). Akron has a very interesting schedule: They open up against Army (will be played at Cleveland Browns Stadium) the have to go right to Columbus and play O State. They then travel to Indiana. After finally getting a home game against rival and a tough team Kent State they are back on the road. At UCONN and Western Michigan will be their next two…The Zips got unlucky with their schedule (they have to play 2 of the top west teams Western and Central Michigan). 2 games I have targeted right now are @ Indiana and @ UCONN. Akron has played and won in tough situations before. They won at NC State last year in front of a hostile crowd. I believe this will give them the confidence to beat both these foes SU.

Prediction

8-4 or 9-3 5-2 in the MAC

What to Bet

ATS in select games and UNDER




Doug Martin is the coach at Kent...He has been there for a couple of years, after being an assistant to the former coach. The attitude around this program, like AKrons, has changed drastically. They also have the tools to be a solid player in the MAC East...

Kent State


This is a team that we must watch early IMO. Doug Martin has done wonders with this team. They are no longer the bottom dwellers of year’s past. Locally, they have done a tremendous job with advertisements and getting some fans to the games. It is amazing how the attitude about Kent State has changed. They went from a basketball pipeline, where people around here did not know they had a football team, to in contention for a MAC East Title. Last season the Flashes had their first non-losing season since 2001! Their last five season win totals look like 3 5 5 1 and then 6 last year. The amazing thing is that they started 5-2 last year before finishing 1-3. It was not that they faced tougher opponents, they just choked. All off season they have stressed finishing the job and expecting to win.

OFFENSE

QB Julian Edelman is back and will once again be one of the more exciting players in the MAC. He is a junior JUCO transfer that is a very good runner. Last season, after taking the starting job, he ran for nearly 700 yards. What is unknown is how strong Edelman’s arm is. People I have talked to, within the KSU program, have told be that he has a very strong arm. The reason we did not see it much last season was because he played the whole second half of the season with a torn labrum. He has had surgery and has rehabbed to 100%. I look for him to have a big year in this weak defensive conference.

RB Eugene Jarvis will once again be back for the Flashes. If you have not seen this kid, you need to. No he did not have HUGE stats last year, but he was a freshman and he was very productive. He is listed at 5’5” 158 lbs. I have played basketball with him and my 8 year old nephew seems bigger than he is. Regardless, his size is the only reason that he is not at a bigger school (no pun intended). Also at back, sophomore Greg Keys has switched back to RB from safety and Michigan State transfer (last year) Tony Howard will get some touches.

WR, KSU lost their top 2 targets. With that being said they only had 10 TD s threw the air, a year ago. They have many young WR s, so it will be interesting who will start and who will earn PT. Gray-shirt Freshman Aaron Robinson has been slotted at the X slot. Luneric Mundrow is another smaller guy that has some speed. He is only 5’6” but is explosive.
OL will definitely be a very strong part of this KSU offense. They performed well last year and return 4 out of 5 starters.

Kicker appears to be Nate Reed this year. If you bet for KSU, I am sure you lost a bet or two because of their kicking game. From what I have heard/read Reed has been working very hard had hit about 90% in the Spring….we will see

DEFENSE

The DL should once again be pretty strong. They lost a big time player that is in camp with the Lions or Packers or somewhere. Collin Ferrell will once again start at NG…he is a beast.

LB return 2 starters but depth seems to be the question….Jameson has started and will do well

DB s were the strength of this KSU team a year ago. They lost 4 of their main players….many people think their will be a major drop off, but from what I hear it will not be a huge drop off. They were very deep last year and should be adequate this year.

CONCLUSION

Kent State has one that MAC East just one time ever! That was in the 70s! I expect them to compete for a league title this year. They have to play Iowa State at night to open the season, before going to Kentucky. I look for week to be a strong ATS and maybe SU play. Martin graduated from Kentucky and it would mean a lot to beat his former school.

Prediction (7-5) 8-4 if the ball really bounces their way 5-2 in the MAC

What to look to bet?
ATS early- I do not see this team getting much love early because of the way the finished last season. I am targeting that week 2 game at Kentucky as a big play.
 
B.A.R.,

I completely agree. I only bet two games involving MAC teams all year last year and took Troy in the Bowl game...I just don't see a whole lot of reason to bet the Sun Belt and the MAC...


I love betting totals in the MAC...Also, I feel I can get a good gauge on Akron and Kent....
 
One thing that I disagree with Linde, is the coaching asepct you talked about. You said that Ohio has a HUGE advantage in this department (as far as East teams). Kent and Akron have two of the best young coaches around. J.D. Brookhart has brought the top recruiting classes in the MAC (East or West) the last 3 years. He was a recruiter/assistant at Pitt before coming to Akron a few years back. He has taken a team that was the laughing stock of the MAC(let alone the nation) and turned them into a good program. In his short 3 years, they have won the MAC East (and championship) and went to a bowl game. Also, they traveled and beat NC State in front of a hostile crowd. Yes, they were 5-7 last year but you have to expect that with a new team. They have some very solid parts returning. Also, they might have the best defense in the MAC. You throw these things in with the ammount of young talent, they will be a tough opponent.....

I didn't exactly put down these coaches, and I don't think Brookhart is bad at all - but Solich is leaps and bounds ahead of all of them. This guy coached at NEBRASKA before Ohio...and led them to the title game in 2001. To say any of these coaches are even close to his level is crazy.

As I said, not putting down these guys, but Solich is the best coach in the division by far.
 
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