MAC Champ Discussion

scdoggy

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Figured its not too soon to start a thread for this one. I'm one of the few that likes BG and will probably go ML for 1/4 of my play and spread with the rest. Just think that defense will allow them to hang around in this one and the longer they keep it close, the better chance they have to pull off a win.

I think this line opening where it did was telling. Going to be a close game.
 
Northern Ill got hammered today. This moved to 4.5 this afternoon. Wonder if Huskies were a big service release?
 
You seen who BG has played? Their D numbers are impressive but I think theyve played 0 bowl teams.

I played UNI at Toledo -3 when it looked too easy....gonna do it again here. BCS conspiracy aside I think Lynch gets em to the window.
 
Regarding the BCS conspiracy, don't forget about last year when Kent State came in ranked #17 against a #21 ranked Northern Illinois. Kent State had the shortest path to a top-16 ranking and invitation to the Orange Bowl, which would have secured $8M in revenue for the MAC. They ended up losing the game, and the MAC's odds of generating $8M in revenue took a hit. But it wasn't before a 21-point 4Q and a subsequent overtime. As luck would have it though, Northern Illinois won the game - was helped out with a loss from Texas and UCLA that Saturday - and ended up finishing #15 in the BCS rankings, earning the MAC a trip to the Orange Bowl after all. Conspiracy theorists have a leg to stand on considering the explosion of points from the Flashes in the 4Q, but if the fix was in you can argue the Flashes probably would have won in OT.

For the trend guys, it's notable that MAC Championship faves are 4-10-2 ATS since 1997 (which seems arbitrary but is as far as my database goes). And the favorite in this game hasn't covered the spread since 2007.
 
*BGSU leads the MAC in 11 different team statistical categories.
*The Falcons lead the MAC in scoring defense, total defense, rushing defense, passing defense, pass defense efficiency, punt return average, first down defense, third down offense, time of possession, and red zone defense.
*BGSU ranks first in the nation in pass defense and red zone defense.
*The Falcons also rank in the FBS top 10 for scoring defense, total defense, punt return average, first down defense, fourth down defense, and time of possession.
 
*BGSU leads the MAC in time of possession, possessing the ball for 34:16 per game. That is the best mark in all of FBS football.
*Bowling Green is 9-1 this season when they win the time of possession battle, and 0-2 when they lose it.
 
FALCONS DOMINATE SECOND HALF
*BGSU has not allowed a second-half point during the last four games.
*In fact, the Falcons have allowed just seven second-half points during the last six games.
*Dating all the way back to the final eight regular season games, Bowling Green has allowed just 21 second-half points, only 14 of which came with the first-team defense on the field.
 
You seen who BG has played? Their D numbers are impressive but I think theyve played 0 bowl teams.

I played UNI at Toledo -3 when it looked too easy....gonna do it again here. BCS conspiracy aside I think Lynch gets em to the window.
That doesnt matter. We cannot look at who teams have played
 
If a team can stop lynch it's BG in the MAC

i wasn't impressed with NIU last year with a better team vs kent. Lucky to win
 
Back when Buffalo played Toledo, Buffalo had a comparable SOS to Toldeo. And Toledo had the advantage in rushing offense, 238.9 to 181.4. And they converted better on 3rd down, 41% to 37%. And Buffalo was 10th in RZ defense at 70%, compared to Toledo who ranked 103rd at 90% scoring allowed in the red zone. And Buffalo was better defensively on 4th down, passes picked, rush defense, 3rd down defense, and scoring defense. And Buffalo ranked 2nd in the nation in turnovers lost and turnover margin. But Toledo was not far behind them at 14th and 19th in those categories. Regardless, Toledo kicked the shit out of Buffalo.
 
I was on Toledo in that game. Buffalo was the better team after spotting Toledo 28. A lot of points but long story short what BG did last week on the road was super impressive. Stuffing one of the best RBs in the nation over and over.
 
I just have to side with the points and a lil ML in this one. At 4.5, and prices over +170, a defense like this is an autoplay.

Should be a great game to watch. hopefully it comes down to the last kick...
 
I just have to side with the points and a lil ML in this one. At 4.5, and prices over +170, a defense like this is an autoplay.

Should be a great game to watch. hopefully it comes down to the last kick...

I wonder what the line will look like tomorrow. I imagine NIU will be a huge public play, and I wonder if this could go even higher.
 
At +4.5, a move to 6 doesn't mean much to me. No chance it gets any higher than that. I think at some point before kick, you'll see BG get hammered by people waiting to get max value on the dog..
 
Anybody know the status of the NIU WRs? They have some legit speed and this game is indoors in a dome on turf. They might be playing and that could've affected the line move. It's an angle that I just thought of, with this game being played at Ford Field (home of the Lions).
 
Figured its not too soon to start a thread for this one. I'm one of the few that likes BG and will probably go ML for 1/4 of my play and spread with the rest. Just think that defense will allow them to hang around in this one and the longer they keep it close, the better chance they have to pull off a win.

I think this line opening where it did was telling. Going to be a close game.

:shake:
 
I just have to side with the points and a lil ML in this one. At 4.5, and prices over +170, a defense like this is an autoplay.

Should be a great game to watch. hopefully it comes down to the last kick...

I hope it does too, and NIU wins by a FG. I have NIU -2.5 large, and BG +4.5 small. Would love to middle it obviously.
 
Anybody know the status of the NIU WRs? They have some legit speed and this game is indoors in a dome on turf. They might be playing and that could've affected the line move. It's an angle that I just thought of, with this game being played at Ford Field (home of the Lions).

TommyLee Lewis is a go. He's their leading WR and deep threat. 74 catches. Not sure about the 2nd WR.
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I'm sitting on a 3 teamer with BG +165 left that pays a little over three units, and a teaser that pays one unit with BG 11.5 left to cash.

Still think BG wins this game outright, so I'll probably watch the first half and see what kind of options I've got at halftime. Good luck fellas.
 
How high is bg going to get? Seeing 5 now....I have niu +3.5 to finish a teaser...gonna take bg at some point just waiting to get the best #
 
Nice grab on the -2.5 Jimmy. Is that what this opened at, or did you pay to get it under 3?

I bought it down to 2.5 when the line hit -3 @ -105 Monday evening at BM. It had been -3 @ 110. I wanted to get a bet in Monday night before the line moved. When I went to actually place the bet, the vig had dropped to 105 so I decided to buy it down to 2.5.

Because I made a very substantial bet on NIU, when the line hit 4.5, I thought that was too juicy of a middle opportunity to pass up. I'll still lose money if NIU doesn't hit, so I need NIU to cover the -2.5 first and foremost.
 
Can't argue with that. Covering 3 AND 4 in this game could prove to be a very wise move. Is it wrong that I'm more hyped to watch this game than anything that is being played on Saturday.

Dinner tonight: Big Mac, Mac and Cheese, Macaroons for dessert...
 
Great info here. I took NIU last night but now rethinking...

Here is some info I found interesting, take it however you choose:

NIU averages nearly 48 rushing attempts per game.

BG has had three games where their defense faced more than 40 attempts. Here are the games:

[TABLE="class: game-log"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: date"]Date[/TH]
[TH="class: opponent"]Opponent[/TH]
[TH="class: surface"]Surface[/TH]
[TH="class: result"]Result[/TH]
[TH="class: rush-att"]Att[/TH]
[TH="class: rush-yard"]Yards[/TH]
[TH="class: rush-avg"]Avg.[/TH]
[TH="class: rush-td"]TD[/TH]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: game-log"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: date"]09/14/13[/TD]
[TD="class: opponent"]@ Indiana[/TD]
[TD]Turf[/TD]
[TD="class: result"]L 10-42[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD]266[/TD]
[TD]5.54[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

[TABLE="class: game-log"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: date"]10/12/13[/TD]
[TD="class: opponent"]@ Mississippi St.[/TD]
[TD]Grass[/TD]
[TD="class: result"]L 20-21[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]245[/TD]
[TD]5.98[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

[TABLE="class: game-log"]
<tbody>[TR="class: even-row"]
[TD="class: date"]10/26/13[/TD]
[TD="class: opponent"]Toledo[/TD]
[TD]Turf[/TD]
[TD="class: result"]L 25-28[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]242[/TD]
[TD]5.90[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

All three losses, their only three losses of the season. Notice two of them were actually on turf as well, just like Ford Field tonight. Two they kept close. In those three games, ATS and O/U:

Toledo L 25-28 Week 9 L -4 U 53.5
MSU L 20-21 Week 7 W 11.5 U 52
Indiana L 10-42 Week 3 L 2.5 U 61

3-0 to the under, 1-2 ATS.

BU 9-3 to the under, NIU 5-7 to the under. Some other stats to help under: Under is 10-2 in Northern Illinois' last 12 neutral site games, Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Trying to find O/U for MAC Championship games, anyone?
 
MAC Championships O/U since 2004, when game has been played at Ford Field.

2012, O 60 (NIU)
2011, U 71 (NIU)
2010, U 55 (NIU)
2009, U 56.5
2008, O 63.5
2007, U 63.5
2006, U 47
2005, O 54 (NIU)
2004, U 65
 
Can't argue with that. Covering 3 AND 4 in this game could prove to be a very wise move. Is it wrong that I'm more hyped to watch this game than anything that is being played on Saturday.

Dinner tonight: Big Mac, Mac and Cheese, Macaroons for dessert...

Little McCallums 12-year to wind things down?
 
yep, flat 3 all over...the ol' reverse line mvmt.

already on BG @ +4.5...but will contemplate middling/buying out if any NIU -2.5's show up today.
 
I fell for Toledo against this team, not doing it again.
 
ruhroe...

cincy backers were Langed last nite. tonight, he's on BG.

do we run to NIU? or do we go with the blind squirrel theory? ;)
 
Concerning that BG is fast becoming the premier 'faux sharp' play of the day. Not too mention MAC conspiracies.

May buy off.
 
Bg defensive stats a bit of fools gold IMO . Offensive talent in Mac has evolved down and there are several easy outs for a decent defense, which bg is. Ignore schedule comparisons . Niu best offense by far bg will face and I think we will see they are pretty average vs dynamic offense.
 
The conspiracy theories are always so crazy and interesting to think about. Like tee is right, BG makes A LOT of money if they lose. How can they justify winning? Someone has to be talking about this behind closed doors. HAS TO, no? Yes? Drives me crazy thinking about it.
 
Public meter at ESPN...

NCF MAC Championship (Detroit, MI): Who will WIN the championship?
[TABLE="class: mg-gametableQ spons-mg-gametableQ, width: 0"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: mg-column1 start, align: center"]8:03 PM
ESPN2
[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column2 sport, align: center"]
icon_football.gif

NCF
[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column3 opponents"] Bowling Green Falcons (9-3)[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column4 result, align: center"]--[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column5 status, align: center"]Preview[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column6 wpw, align: center"]1.4%[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column7 heat, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column8 pick borderRight, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: mg-column3 opponents last"] #14 Northern Illinois Huskies (12-0)[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column4 result last, align: center"]--[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column6 wpw, align: center"]98.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column8 pick borderRight last, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
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Public meter at ESPN...

NCF MAC Championship (Detroit, MI): Who will WIN the championship?
[TABLE="class: mg-gametableQ spons-mg-gametableQ, width: 0"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: mg-column1 start, align: center"]8:03 PM
ESPN2[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column2 sport, align: center"]
icon_football.gif

NCF
[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column3 opponents"] Bowling Green Falcons (9-3)[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column4 result, align: center"]--[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column5 status, align: center"]Preview[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column6 wpw, align: center"]1.4%[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column7 heat, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column8 pick borderRight, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: mg-column3 opponents last"] #14 Northern Illinois Huskies (12-0)[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column4 result last, align: center"]--[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column6 wpw, align: center"]98.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column8 pick borderRight last, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

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That is pretty alarming. But it was like that for the Toledo game too. Plus those folks aren't gamblers. I'm betting on NIU.
 
I don't see the books getting middled tonight. They could have easily opened this game above the key 3. NIU rolls or BG wins outright.
 
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