MAC 6U play

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
Time doesn't allow me to post much last couple years. For newbies,was pretty active on here in the glory days.

two teams and two conferences I follow closely. Wrong team favored for sure:

NoIlly +3.5, TU WIN
No Illy 2h ML -125; 4 units (24-17 Iowa at half) WIN
ohio +21.5, -120; 4u
Colly st -2.5, -120; 4 units
Colly st 1h -0.5, -120; 2.5 units


(many notes and musings below but those with ADD go to post 18 for summary)


there will be a time to play SGU, this is not it. have some smaller stuff on ml and different ml combo's and would endorse it but big play is on ATS.

Can discuss more if there is interest. Gl to all
 
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Glad to see you posting dub. Hope you can find the time to post more this season, GL bro.
 
Expect high skies and temps near the mid nineties in Iowa city at kickoff.. hmm

Inexperienced QB making first collegiate start with no threats at WR trying to run an all new no huddle offense in 95 degree heat?:thinking: Where you think No Illy's safeties will be playing?

just getting started..
 
so on the SGU side:

SGU nation is gonna be put to the test in the early going IMO.. Ferentz will be patient and this team will improve and for the Ferentz haters out there which membership is growing--- don't bother cause he aint going anywhere and his 19 million buyout should tell you all you need to know..

musings:

SGU just has so many question marks and continuity issues but you have to start at QB (especially as it relates to this matchup).. Ruduck won the three way QB competition or did he? whats the saying-- If you have a three way QB competition, you don't have one QB.. Explain to me this. After redshirting 2011, Ruduck backed up the mighty JVB last year. AND DIDNT GET A SINGLE SNAP? how is the possible? or better question, why did it happen?. Late in a nightmare season you would think one of two things would happen, 1) Ruduck would relieve an often struggling Vandenberg to try to provide a spark, 2) or two, if you don't think he can provide a spark, which obviously they didn't, why not plug Ruduck in late in a lost season and get him some experience if you thought he was your '13 QB, which also didn't happen... Makes you wonder.. My take, with few vertical threats at WR and inexperience on his side, teams will load the box early in the schedule (sounds like 2012 all over again) and Ruduck will struggle badly.. Say it here now, Iowa will have JC transfer Cody Sokol at QB by game 4 or 5..

more coming
 
No Illy is gonna have fun with this Iowa defense IMO..

on defense Iowa is veteran and stout at linebacker and the stats will tell you those guys made a ton of tackles LY. What the stats won't tell is how far down field those tackles were made. The defensive backfield is a work in progress replacing micah hyde and the two deep is littered with new names.. Where they are really weak is the defensive line and their ability to get to the passer. this will be a weakness all year and it will be no more glaring then in this contest vs a stud QB (Jordan Lynch, 3000+ YP, 1800+ YR LY) with a veteran Offensive line (all starters return) in 95 degree heat.
 
Iowa offensive line will be very strong at tackle with both guys Sunday league type players.. They will have question marks at center and Guard however.. All three Qb's in the QB derby are the immobile dropback passer variety.. Iowa in their last scrimmage open to reporters ran almost exclusively out of the no huddle and it didn't go well are the reports I am reading.. I'm wondering if Ferentz is being sly or if he really thinks Ruduck can run that offense with absolutely no experience and no vertical threats.. Doubt it.. More likely Iowa will try to pound at the No Illy interior.. No Illy has a stout defense and the new HC comes from the defensive side of the ball.. I see them gameplanning the rookie very well with a box full and two corners saying, "try it"..

There is a scenario however, in which Iowa pounds away offensively and wears down the No Illy defense in the heat, but I don't see it mainly because I don't think they will have the ball that much..
 
situational--

Iowa won the opener LY against NIU 18-17 at Soldier Field in Chicago.. No Illy then went on to run the table in the regular season before losing their coach and getting embarrassed in Bowl game.. 16 starters back.. two themes. revenge on Iowa and the "we need to start beating the lower level BCS teams" to move to the next level.. They believe that next level is achievable (I don't, for cripes sakes you are a MAC team) but for them to keep the dream alive the first step is to beat up on a vulnerable Big Ten team in which you out talent almost everywhere, especially at the most important position on the field (QB and its not even close) on the road... Plenty of motivation for very veteran team..
 
so I have multiple notes and scribbles and could write a book, but for my ADD brotherhood, in summary... Love my veteran highly skilled QB vs non pass rushing, questionable pass covering defense against QB making his first start, in a new offense with no weapons, in the heat. Add in a little revenge and give me the hook over a FG at normal vig and, Top Unit..

I don't think it will be close but Ferentz will still have a 19 million buyout. :confused2:
 
tee*dub said:
so I have multiple notes and scribbles and could write a book, but for my ADD brotherhood, in summary... Love my veteran highly skilled QB vs non pass rushing, questionable pass covering defense against QB making his first start, in a new offense with no weapons, in the heat. Add in a little revenge and give me the hook over a FG at normal vig and, Top Unit..

I don't think it will be close but Ferentz will still have a 19 million buyout. :confused2:
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Fantastic stuff as usual Tee...GL this year. Look forward to a profitable year.
 
One question...Do you think this number is gonna head back upwards or will it stay stuck at 3?
 
xyzky said:
One question...Do you think this number is gonna head back upwards or will it stay stuck at 3?
Click to expand...

I think it will stay at 3 and the vig will move around on that number.. I still see some 115 buys to 3.5 out there, which I would jump.. the bigger risk is it moving down not up IMO.. hard to believe Iowa is favored is my stance so I wouldn't quibble too much with the movement if you like the play. gl X
 
on the MLB side-- hard to ignore Leake giving up 16 ERs last 23 innings as his season IP totals pile up> seems to be pitching a little different to me and Cards pounded him for 7ER in 5 innings 3 weeks ago to start the skid.. Wonder if he will be car pooling with Harvey to Dr Andrews office next week:badass:.... Reds absolutely atrocious vs lefties and tho Lyons MLB numbers look bad he was lights out in his AAA numbers after demotion, cards at home, even money is a must play IMO..

Look at middle of cards lineups numbers vs Leake in career.. Freese , Holliday, Moilna all crush him..

Don't get me wrong, I love Leake, I just question the stretch he is in and wonder about the workload and his health. Coming right to the MLB from college may be catching up to him IMO.. just a hunch. I play hunches often and lose but when the numbers support it, and I get the home team, flat--- play it..
 
Tee - I was giving you until Wednesday amd then I was going to email you. I hope all is well with you and the family. Great seeing/hearing from you. We all appreciate the insight, keep it coming. What's the word in Coral Gables, do I finally have my team back? Or at least on the verge? High expectations. I'll be in your ear. Be well, best of luck, come out of the gates hard! Boom. BOL
 
Good Luck. May add this as well. I did hear rumblings of a deep threat WR that might be decent for Iowa though.. not sure they are without wr threats. One real playmaker on the field and it is Lynch. Game Revenge and off of the bowl embarrassment.... and this is sort of the opposite of last year where niu had the somewhat inexperienced qb starting on the road vs a veteran qb ... and now it is completely opposite. Plus second year Greg Davis should mean the talented players start getting worse :thinking:
 
VK said:
Good Luck. May add this as well. I did hear rumblings of a deep threat WR that might be decent for Iowa though.. not sure they are without wr threats. One real playmaker on the field and it is Lynch. Game Revenge and off of the bowl embarrassment.... and this is sort of the opposite of last year where niu had the somewhat inexperienced qb starting on the road vs a veteran qb ... and now it is completely opposite. Plus second year Greg Davis should mean the talented players start getting worse :thinking:
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ya JC powell is getting a bunch of twitter hype. We'll see.. stretch to think this offense can get him the ball in playmaking situations this early in season.. you know me VK, fade SGU early then when they are beat down garbage, play them mid to late as dogs. could be wrong. Neutral field last year btw. hope you are well my man. NoIlly has been good to us as I recall.'an_horse'
 
Mags said:
Tee - I was giving you until Wednesday amd then I was going to email you. I hope all is well with you and the family. Great seeing/hearing from you. We all appreciate the insight, keep it coming. What's the word in Coral Gables, do I finally have my team back? Or at least on the verge? High expectations. I'll be in your ear. Be well, best of luck, come out of the gates hard! Boom. BOL
Click to expand...

all is well Mags. hope you are well and gl this season my man
 
GL this season tee, hope to see you post all season

I will definitely look at this game now to see you favor it heavily

:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
how did you do that? can you summon the pervert too? lol
Click to expand...

I googled "dancing emoticon" and it was one of the results. Not sure how we can get it back on here though.

I'm not sure what the pervert emoticon looks like, but I'll do a search and see what I come up with.
 
Lareux said:
I googled "dancing emoticon" and it was one of the results. Not sure how we can get it back on here though.

I'm not sure what the pervert emoticon looks like, but I'll do a search and see what I come up with.
Click to expand...

circa 2007-2009 pervert guy was the fella who was in fitness mode doing the "step class" but as we all know had a much more devious and dark past. he stalked the stripper gal and the dancing blue guy was his alter ego..
 
Good to see U on NoIlly. I bought it to 4 but think goes to the buzzer. Would love to see NoIlly win it going away.
Good to see u tee GL on the season
 
tee*dub said:
circa 2007-2009 pervert guy was the fella who was in fitness mode doing the "step class" but as we all know had a much more devious and dark past. he stalked the stripper gal and the dancing blue guy was his alter ego..
Click to expand...

Either one of these guys?

exercise-steps.gif


View attachment 32361
 
tee*dub said:
ya JC powell is getting a bunch of twitter hype. We'll see.. stretch to think this offense can get him the ball in playmaking situations this early in season.. you know me VK, fade SGU early then when they are beat down garbage, play them mid to late as dogs. could be wrong. Neutral field last year btw. hope you are well my man. NoIlly has been good to us as I recall.'an_horse'
Click to expand...


Ya when both on niu it has been good. I have good history with them dating back many years actually... don't recall how I fared last year with them off top of the head. My biggest or second biggest ( sjsu at boise state ? ) cfb bet ever was TCU against NIU in a bowl game .. want to say in the Wolfe days. Easy cheesy ( unlike frigging sjsu at boise state ? ). Oh and ya .. I guess I should spell shit out clearer sometimes.. neutrals are road games for both teams to me except in rare circumstances where one team has an edge for the venue. Best of luck.
 
More likely Iowa will try to pound at the No Illy interior.. No Illy has a stout defense and the new HC comes from the defensive side of the ball.. I see them gameplanning the rookie very well with a box full and two corners saying, "try it"..

There is a scenario however, in which Iowa pounds away offensively and wears down the No Illy defense in the heat, but I don't see it mainly because I don't think they will have the ball that much..
Click to expand...

At first glance one might think that NILL D will not be up to 2012 standards. We all saw how good that DL was last year when they played Iowa. But that DL only returns 1 starter. However, the guys who step into starting roles had a combined 10.5 sacks and 9 tfl not including the lone DL returner who accounted for 2 sacks and 7.5 tfl himself. Not often do you have a 4 man LD return just 1 starter but have that much production coming back.

NIU fans feel pretty good about their LB situation too with Bass potential for All MAC honors and the others have some starting experience. They aren't all green.

I think quietly the NIU players might feel that they have not gotten the respect they deserve and with a week 2 bye and with week 3 and 4 being against only Idaho and East ILL I can't help but think that Iowa is the only thing the players and coaches have had on their mind since fall camp opened.

I was on the fence in this game, maybe because I thought Iowa was in for something of a bounce-back season. I figured they were so bad at QB last year that Rudock could only be an improvement, but as you point out, the fact that he did not once replace a struggling Vanderberg last year says alot. Maybe I need to examine this further.

Thanks.
 
VK said:
.. I guess I should spell shit out clearer sometimes.. neutrals are road games for both teams to me except in rare circumstances where one team has an edge for the venue..
Click to expand...

that's actually a very interesting discussion/debate because it relates to my favorite time of the year as well, bowl season..For me neutrals are neutrals. From Noilly's perspective, big difference from where they played last year compared to where they are playing this year, so to call both games roadies from a power rating perspective is tricky IMO... but I think I know where you are coming from.. GL to you this week. You always crush opening few weeks so you don't need the luck.
 
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