Louisville vs. UCONN

[mwwebb81]

I am coming into this game off of my first loss on a Louisville TOTAL this season. The offenses showed up for the 1st and 4th quarters of that game, but just werent around in the middle two quarters. I did however pick up the victory on Louisville +10, and even posted in my thread that I was wanting to play Louisville on the ML, however, I never managed to getting around to doing so, which I ended up regretting.

Louisville finally showed up and played a complete game this past weekend! The fact that I had to be surrounded by UK fans after they beat LSU kind of put a damper on the evening, but at least the Cards won a meaningful game for the first time all year.

On to this week:

The Cards are finally starting to get healthy again on offense. Brohm has been unstopable as usual, Douglas got back into action last week, and Urrutia should be good to go for the UCONN game.

Louisville posted 48 against UCONN last year, and I see no reason why the shouldnt approach that number again in this game. Sure, UCONN has allowed a very impressive 12 points per game this season, but the real question is, WHO IN THE HELL HAVE THEY PLAYED? Noone. Their schedule has been Duke, Maine, Temple, Pitt, Akron, and Virginia. I am pretty sure I could pick out a few of the guys from CTG, go out there, and limit those teams to 12 points per game. Their defensive numbers are impressive because of the weak schedule, and this week, they get exposed.

UCONN does however have a pretty decent offensive unit, especially rushing the football. They are averaging 170 rushing yards per game, and another 210 per game through the air. Louisville's defense is not nearly as good as the unit that allowed 17 to UCONN last year at home. UCONN should be able to put up some point here as well.

This is the point in the year where UCONN comes crashing back down to earth, and following their 5-1 start due to the cupcake schedule, they will close out the year 1-5, barely becoming bowl eligible, and that all starts with a loss to Louisville this weekend. Louisville has won both meetings since their entrance into the Big East, and will move to 3-0 with a victory on Friday.

Final Score:

Louisville 41, UCONN 28

My Suggestions:

Make two plays on this game, both for 1 unit.

Louisville -3
OVER 62.5

Good Luck to everyone this week!

WEBB

 

[pags11]

I'm thinking this one's going to be a lot closer than your prediction bud...

 

[husky17]

comparing this game, or UConn as a defense to last year, is like comparing my 40 speed with a broken ankle to my 40 speed at full health. You simply CANT. I know its easy to, and your not a follower of Uconn, but there defense is totally different than last years.




Thats all I'll say for now, because I have yet to cap the game.



But remember last year, without a Passing game at all, Uconn TORCHED Louisville with the ground game.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

on the Ville w/ ya bro..

GL this week.

 

[STEED]

I think Ville is gonna put on a clinic here too...I'll probably be on this. Good luck.

 

[mwwebb81]

We will see. All I am saying is that you really cant judge UCONN's D by the numbers, because they havent played anyone even worth mentioning. This is the first good Offense that they have faced this season, and they will be tested. Like I said, they will get their points, but they are not going to be able to stop Louisville's offense, and if this turns into a track meet, they are not going to be able to keep up.

 

[OBsec12]

GL... I got the Ville as well.

 

[mwwebb81]

Just an injury update:

Reports out of Louisville are that Mario Urrutia has been practicing all week, and looks like he is back to full speed. He is listed as Probable, and should be a go for this game. As if Brohm isnt good enough already, this will give him yet another big play option.

 

[RJ Esq]

on the Ville w/ ya bro..

GL this week.

Tailing the guy who has dial-up.

 

[DJFadeAway]

so the over lookz like money then. no?

 

[mwwebb81]

Im on the Over, and think its a solid play.

 

[xpression syst_m]

severe thunderstorms are forecasted for late afternoon tomorrow

 

[mwwebb81]

Where are you seeing that forecast?

I am seeing 30% chance for a light afternoon thundershower, and everything is expected to be out of the area by about 2 hours prior to kickoff.

 

[Qdog]

Local forecast for Friday night in East Hartford:

Friday night: Windy...showers and thundershowers in the evening, then cloudy with rain overnight...perhaps a rumble of thunder as well. Low near 65F. Winds S at 15 to 25 mph. Rainfall may reach one inch.

I would think the adverse weather would favor the under and the Huskies, but we will see. Should be a good game regardless.

 

[Ahambone]

I've also read about some pretty bad weather on Friday night, and the field that UConn plays on apparently doesn't hold up too well as it is.

 

[mwwebb81]

Oh well, my experience tells me that these "Weather Guessers" are rarely right anyways. I will look for 72 degree and calm at game time, and a great night for an OVER!!!

 

[Houghton Chemical]

This site is from my area, about 40 minutes away from UConn. You can personally ask any weather question regarding any sporting events and this weatherman will respond.

It also has continuous updating doppler radar. www.cbs3springfield.com/weather

 

[Houghton Chemical]

Oh well, my experience tells me that these "Weather Guessers" are rarely right anyways. I will look for 72 degree and calm at game time, and a great night for an OVER!!!

MWebb, seriously, email over a question and he'll usually respond in 12 hours or so.

 

[mwwebb81]

thats awesome, will do!

 

[Houghton Chemical]

thats awesome, will do!

On the Ville too -3, so GL to us both.

 

[mwwebb81]

Lets Cash It!

 

[husky17]

Loooking rainy in CT

 

[mwwebb81]

I hate rain..........

 

[redbearde]

I love rain.

 

[DJFadeAway]

u think the over play is f'd bc of the rain or what?

 

[mwwebb81]

I dont think its a bad play just because of the rain.........but I certainly dont think the rain helps it.

You know what though, in my gambling lifetime I have cancelled out too many overs due to weather forecast, and the majority of those ended up hitting anyways. So I say FUCK THE RAIN, I am sticking with the OVER regardless.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Go Cards.

 

[E.T.G.]

good luck to us tonight and good thoughts

 

[mwwebb81]

Wow, that weather map looks nasty. Not a good forecast for the game.

 

[Ahambone]

Oh well, my experience tells me that these "Weather Guessers" are rarely right anyways. I will look for 72 degree and calm at game time, and a great night for an OVER!!!

I'm almost strictly a totals player myself, and can tell you that rain is usually a good thing for overs. However, rain AND wind can really hurt an over, and it looks like there are going to be 15-20mph winds during the game.

There is one "weather guesser" out there who I respect (he posts at the other site) due to his past record and how selective he is. He's on the under tonight, and when he plays a total, I listen.

 

[TheShadyNFL]

I am an hour away from the stadium, I am having light rain here, imo Rain isnt always bad for an over, in fact its often good with defenders slipping and WR's getting wide open, if its windy that could pose a problem for Louisville tonight

No play for me in this one, lots of money on the fav though, could spell an upset for UCONN, I hope for arguments sake Brohm still looks good if they somehow manage to lose. imo they are the better team and should be fav by more

 

[JPicks]

Good luck tonight Webb. Hopefully the weather doesn't screw ya over here.

 

[BetTheRent$]

I like Louisville too and I agree with your "fuck the rain" assessment, so I'm going to take the over and I got it at 58.

 

[mwwebb81]

I just added an additional unit on Louisville -3, which makes it a 2 unit play for me tonight.

 

[mwwebb81]

I like Louisville too and I agree with your "fuck the rain" assessment, so I'm going to take the over and I got it at 58.

Congrats on getting that over at 58, it is even lower now, and I am kind of pissed that I took it early at 62.5. Amazing what a little weather can do! Hopefully it will go over regardless, and all will be right with the world!