Louisville vs. Cincinnati

mwwebb81

Pretty much a regular
Also posted this in DMoney's thread, because he had already started a Louisville/Cincy discussion, but just because I always make a thread, here goes:

I think both teams are going to be throwing the ball a lot, and with a lot of success. From what I am hearing, both Douglas and Urrutia should be ready for this weeks game. Douglas is almost as much of a lock to play as you can get, and Urrutia has a good chance. Honestly, I dont think it will make that much of a difference if Urrutia takes the field or not, but the Cards can not afford to play another game without Douglas. His speed and ability to get open are by far the best on the team, and the offense is so much better when he is in there.

Anthony Allen has been a good back, but I dont think he is nearly as good as his numbers suggest. Calling him "Baby Bush" is a pretty big overstatement in my opinion. I truly believe the best two RB's on the roster have not played a snap yet, and probably wont until next year. Watch out for Victor Anderson and Dale Martin, as they will be names you will get use to hearing over the next few years.

Cincinnati has done nothing but impress me all year long. Any team that goes to Rutgers and wins, especially when Rutgers was in a revenge spot, is a team to be reckoned with. They have the weapons to get it done on offense, and can play some pretty good defense, especially at home.

Louisville has surprisingly looked better better to me on the road this season than at home! I have watched all the games, and the best two games they have played were at UK in a loss, and at NC State. In that NC State game, we would have put up quite a few more points if healthy, so the offense in that game wasnt a big deal. The defense actually played decent in that game.

What does that tell me? Maybe they are feeling a little more pressure to produce from the home crowd, and when they go on the road, they have noone to answer to but themselves. This factor could play a roll in this game at Cincy.

Cincinnati is the better team here, but Louisville will keep it close. I think this game will top 80 total points, think it gets done relatively easy. There would certainly be value in any TOTAL that is less than 70, and I will strongly consider playing it at less than 77.

My suggestion: Play Louisville with the 10 points, and check back later in the week for the TOTAL.

Final Score:

Cincinnati 49, Louisville 45
 
This is definitely going to be an interesting game. Lou +10.5 does look appealing but their defense is what worries me. Utah embarrassed the hell out of them last week. With Lou you really don't know what you are going to get. A total play might be the way to go. Nice writeup.
 
Great stuff - looks like we agree for the most part, thought you have the score a bit higher. GL this week.
 
I do not trust the Louisville defense either, but I do trust a healthy Louisville offense, and thats all it will take to keep this game within the number!

I really think that both defenses are going to get lit up this week. Its going to be a shoot out!

Good Luck to everyone this week!
 
Added Another:

Louisville/Cincinnati OVER 66 (2 Units)

Like I said, I really just dont see this game being under. Unlike Rutgers, Louisville can throw the ball on Cincy. Cincy put up 28 on the Road against a Rutgers team that is much better defensively than Louisville. Both teams air it out in this one, and the OVER covers easily.
 
RJ, Have you ever actually watched a Louisville game?

Because I have. I am a season ticket holder, and have watched every game for the last 15 years or so to be exact. If you think for one second that Louisville isnt going to put up points in this game, you are absolutely nuts. The last time I checked, Louisville still has the best QB in the country, a potential first round WR or two, and a RB that is averaging nearly 6 YPC. This isnt the Ohio State defense we are talking about here in Cincinnati, and they sure as hell arent going to stop Louisville from getting their points.

Cincinnati will put up plenty of points as well due to the horrible Louisville defense. If you would like, you can not listen to me like everyone last week who bet on Louisville, and played the Under, and end up wrong just like they were.

At last count, I have correctly predicted the total play on every Louisville game this year, and sure as hell dont plan on stopping this week.

This game goes OVER the posted total, because BOTH offenses are going to have their way. Period.
 
wow, easy there tiger. Don't pop a blood vessel. I answered you about how I saw the total in the other thread.

Basically I think the Cincy D can limit Brohm, and maybe get a pick or two. And the Cincy offense is good, but they ain't world beaters. One fo their scores was an INT return for a touchdown last week. I don't think they will get one of those this week as Louisvill has fast enough receivers to run the Cincy defenders down :)

Brian Kelly knows he needs to keep the ball outta Brohm's hands cause he does not want to start trading scores. The bread and butter of the Cincy team is their defense so the better rested they are, the better they can defend what is a very good passing attack.

I don't know that there is much I can really say. It's just how I see it. I hate to be against you casue you know your team very well. GL on the play, and may there be 67 or 68 points scored so we both win.
 
Not popping a blood vessel, I just feel very strongly about this play. And if Syracuse can put up 38 on Louisville at Louisville, I am scared to see how much Cincy can score! I really dont believe Brohm will be limited in this game at all. 67 or 68 would be just fine with me, but I really feel this game has a good chance to get into the 80's.
 
RJ, Have you ever actually watched a Louisville game?

Because I have. I am a season ticket holder, and have watched every game for the last 15 years or so to be exact.

Yep, I've watched a number this year. At least 3, but more likely 4. I've also watched them intently over the last 3 years. I can tell you that this L-ville team is a shadow of its' former self--not only defensively, but offensively.

If you think for one second that Louisville isnt going to put up points in this game, you are absolutely nuts. The last time I checked, Louisville still has the best QB in the country, a potential first round WR or two, and a RB that is averaging nearly 6 YPC. This isnt the Ohio State defense we are talking about here in Cincinnati, and they sure as hell arent going to stop Louisville from getting their points.

Of course, L-ville is going to score points. But how many? I don't think enought to help contribute to an over 66 result.

L-ville was forecasted to average 44-45 ppg prior to the year's start. With the exception of Murray St and MTSU, they haven't exceeded that number. In fact, if you look at the average since those first two games, L-ville is only averaging 33 pts or so. Against Big East defensive powerhouse Syracuse, they only scored 35.

Now they are facing a much tougher defense than any they have faced and they are going on the road--granted Cincinnati's HFA isn't equivalent to WVU or tOSU. Are they going to put up 35? Are they going to meet their average? Are they going to break 30?

Cincinnati will put up plenty of points as well due to the horrible Louisville defense. If you would like, you can not listen to me like everyone last week who bet on Louisville, and played the Under, and end up wrong just like they were.

You may be right, you may be wrong. Same with me. God doesn't ask you for the winning side so he can decide it for the rest of us.

As for Cincy getting points, of course they will, and I'm curious how many that will be. To me, the over will be dependent upon how dynamic the Cincy offense is and how bad the L-ville D is. To me, Cincy will need to get to about 40 go cover the over. Thankfully for your pick, L-ville has been giving up about 40 the last 4 games (except NC State). And against VERY poor defenses, Cincy has scored over 40 (Marshall, Miami, and SDSU). However, those were also not in conference with the added motivation. So maybe they get there and maybe they don't.

At last count, I have correctly predicted the total play on every Louisville game this year, and sure as hell dont plan on stopping this week.

This game goes OVER the posted total, because BOTH offenses are going to have their way. Period.

Congratulations and I hope you cover.

But those are my thoughts.
 
Please keep in mind, Louisville's offense has been injured, and they have been without their top WR for the last two games (Including the top 2 WR's last game) and still averaged 32 points per game in those contests. Both guys should be good to go this weekend, which makes that offense much better. Harry Douglas is the key to opening things up for Louisville. He has great speed, great hands, and the ability to get open and dominate a secondary. He has truly been missed the last two weeks. He nearly played last week, and is almost certain to play in this game.

I do agree with one thing you said. Cincy will probably have to get close to 40 to cover the over. I dont think they have any problem doing so against the defense that I have been watching all year long!

I also want to say something else about this Louisville team. This Louisville team is not really a shadow of its former self. They have every bit as much talent as the team that won the Orange Bowl last year, and maybe even more.

The Problem? Coaching. Kragthorpe has done an absolutely terrible job before these games in game planning. I am sure that you have noticed the same thing since you have been watching our games this year, but just take a look at the starts we have had against teams this season:

Murray State: Tied 7-7
MTSU: Tied 7-7
UK: Kentucky up 13-0
Syracuse: Syracuse up 21-7
NC State: Louisville up 13-3
Utah: Utah up 21-0

You can see right there what the problem is. With the exception of that NC State game, absolutely horrible starts to games.

In every game this season Louisville has had a MUCH better 2nd half. So I guess if nothing else, I guess it shows the coaching staff can make corrections at halftime, but what good does it do if we fall far enough behind in the first half? NONE. I dont know what Kragthorpe is doing all week long, but it sure as hell isnt preparing his team for the opening kickoff of these football games. They look like a deer in headlights throughout the first half, and the coaches have to do a better job of game planning, its that simple. The bad first quarters and bad first halves are what have cost us this season.

I always love a good debate though, so everyone keep the thoughts on this game coming!
 
I am starting to really think about putting a play on Louisville for the ML. I just have a gut feeling that they are all going to show up for this game, and play their best one of the year. Might add it when I wake up...........
 
Love it! Maybe Cincy can come to Papa Johns and stomp on the cardinal.

I am starting to really think about putting a play on Louisville for the ML. I just have a gut feeling that they are all going to show up for this game, and play their best one of the year. Might add it when I wake up...........
 
Well, not so great call on the over, missed my first Louisville total of the year. The offenses showed up for the first and fourth quarter, and not much in between. The thing that really surprised me was the way Louisville's D played. Never in a million years would I have bet that Cincy would have scored that few points in this game.

Oh well, lose the bet, but at least my team got a big win, and maybe can get back on track now!

Plus I did win the side bet on Louisville +10, BUT I SHOULD HAVE PLAYED THE ML LIKE I WANTED TO!!!
 
Well, not so great call on the over, missed my first Louisville total of the year. The offenses showed up for the first and fourth quarter, and not much in between. The thing that really surprised me was the way Louisville's D played. Never in a million years would I have bet that Cincy would have scored that few points in this game.

Oh well, lose the bet, but at least my team got a big win, and maybe can get back on track now!

Plus I did win the side bet on Louisville +10, BUT I SHOULD HAVE PLAYED THE ML LIKE I WANTED TO!!!

Told you, so! ;)

Congrats on the win and the win against the books too.
 
Yeah, but you also told me that Cincy would be the ones scoring the points if anyone did, and Louisville outscored them! I also recall something being said about Brohm being limited by the Cincy defense, and he completed 74% of his passes for 350 yards and 3 TD's, lol.

I was wrong and take responsibility for that, but you were wrong on some things too!!! LOL. All in good fun though!

If the same two teams played again tommorow, and the Total was still at 66, I would bet the over again, even though I was wrong this time.

Louisville pissed away 10 more points they should have had in the game, and I just couldnt see them holding Cincy to 24 if they played again.

You were correct though on this one, and I will give you that, but I still dont regret the play, because I think it would be over 8 times out of 10. I just got unlucky that this was one of the ones that wasnt.

I am a lot more pissed that I didnt go with my gut and play Louisville on the ML like I posted I was thinking about doing prior to the game. That would have made up for an otherwise less than stellar week.

Always love the debate though!
 
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