Louisville-Rutgers Thursday Night

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Just realized i put my play for this gamei n Saturday's thread.

Rutgers +5.5 +`100 2 units
Rutgers +7 -111 2 units.

I truly think the Knights take this outright. Too much respect for UL though so I will ocnsider this game coming down to last few minutes.

UL isn't at the pizza palace. They also will have a tough time garnering last weeks energy. No doubt in my mind. Last week was the biggest game in school history. Now they step into a tough venue 7 nights later in another spotlight game. If UL struggles in red zone again they will lose IMO. Don't count on all those fumbles. Rutgers isn't going to do that. This is going to be a helluva game and i think Rutgers wins late. The humiliating loss last year weighs heavily on Knights still. They have had a few weeks to think about that and simmer while UL had the big game last week.

Rutgers with a late FG 30-28
 
Good health on this BAR... but take into the account that Rutgers can't pass, and Louisville can ALOT, I see a different outcome. I am from DaVille and last week was great for the first 2 days after. Now, the team, coaches, fans are so pissed at the disrespect they are getting. Saying they don't deserve this or that. I can see them actually scoring 45 for spite. And I sure don't see Rutgers scoring 30.

However, this could be a good sign. Everytime I tout my local team I get busted. Either way I win. Either I win a house payment or I don't have to pay $2G's to go to NC game.

Trust me... Petrino now realizes and has mentioned on his local shows that not scoring on that last drive was a big mistake. He will try his damnest to crush Rutgers for vindication and justification of all the big conference snob media.

Fyi, if they can score, they will score big. He said that this week too. He wants to not embarrass Rutgers, but to show everyone that its not the competition, but the scheme they play. But there is serious backlash to that too. Beat Rutgers too badly, well same thing with WV. UL hasn't played anybody and that just shows you how over ranked and weak the Big East is. Don't win, and same thing.

The question really is... Is Rice as good as Slaton and White? Rutger's D good? Yep. Played anyone yet? Not like this machine. They pounded last week with Smith. They will bust the OLB this week with Stripling. Everything has a reason.

Plus, think of it this way. 4 games UL played this year, they either had in the backup QB or a QB at 50%. Now, Brohm is probably 90% and ready to show the world why he is a top 5 pick. FYI, Bush didn't play in last years game against Rutgers either.

But that's just my opinion.
 
usually like your picks but i have to say i think UL just out mans rutgers. big time win for the cards
 
Look for me at ticket windwo tomorrow night fellas..lol

Nice stuff hardball...
 
Just checked out Rutger's previous games. Please see Illinois rout and South Florida. Notice the # of field goals against teams that D's are no where near UL's. Also, notice that 2 scores that Rutger's posted against Illinois were DST (interception and punt return). 2 offensively.

So 2 Offense TD's vs. S. Fla and 2 against Illinois and you think they can play with the Cards... Hmm. Good luck BAR. Have fun. I did last week at WVU/UL game. Drunker that Cooter Brown.

If Rex bet his Johnson last week, surely to goodness he antes up the twins this week.
 
You know I'm against ya bro...my thoughts on in my thread so not going to litter yours..

So I'll wish you health....

:shake:
 
I love it B.A.R.

The public is all over UL on this one to the tune of 90%.

Rutgers is tha play.

DaVille wins a much closer game than it should be.

33-31 louisville
 
too many points for a home dog that is undefeated...

I really don't give a shit about past performances in the prior weeks against whoever they played. Tomorrow is a new day, a new game, bring it.
 
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Key here is Louisville's MASSIVE win last week. Human nature, they cant get up for this game like last week.

You think that game was big at Louisville last Thursday? Just as big tomorrow in New Jersey.....20,000 students camped out for GA tickets this week. Tony Soprnao in the house.

Goes to the wire.....got 7.5
 
Rutgers CAN run the ball. Is Rice 100%? If he's ready to roll I see a tough tough game for UL. WVU was overrated and gave the game away with mistakes...
 
Sort of a response to Hardball...

Louisville can sling it with the best of them but what does yardage have to do with points on the board? I hear this arguement all the timein football...so and so will do this and that versus a team...its like AtL in the NFL running for 300 yards vs TB but scoring 14 pts..nice stats but who cares. Didnt Brohm have 300+ @ Syracuse but how many points? What did Lville do before the gift wrapped 14 points to start the 3rd Q?( I was on the Ville big) Answer drive down the field at home versus a bad defense and kick fg's...to which I say RU doesnt have a QB but they have a very good defense which is playing at home. So if they are struggling to put points up at home see Cincy and even WVU game plus Cuse how is going to get any easier this week? Easy it wont it will be a battle

Disrespect? The Ville is getting disrespected to a degree from the country. You dont think RU feels any different? I am sure they know they are dogs on there home field and getting little chance to win this...so that doesnt apply or washes out.

All I know is WVU moved the ball consistently on the Ville at home so there defense can be scored on. Teel is very average but his RBs are great. I didnt think RU could go to Pitt and win but they dominanted. Where is a decent win for Lville away? KSt? Temple? Mid Tenn ? Syr ? All pretty bad teams with NO OFFENSES yet they really never smoked any one outside of Temple..

I think people are overlooking the fact the Ville lost home field edge here and have not played well away....think we see a 23-20 game.....

I hated on RU all year but that Pitt game showed alot...Palko was fairlyhighly regraded going into that...@ Papa John different story but just lile last weesk game of the decade for the home team its again the same situation but this time its RU with the emotional edge IMO
 
SportsNut said:
I hated on RU all year but that Pitt game showed alot...Palko was fairlyhighly regraded going into that...@ Papa John different story but just lile last weesk game of the decade for the home team its again the same situation but this time its RU with the emotional edge IMO

I'm from NJ, just goto school @ So Car and I have hated on them as well all yr, I take shit from friends all the time but I am happy for this RU team in the fact that its about time RU won some games...I didn't believe in this team after narrow wins against So Fla, No Carolina and Teel's overall play but that Pitt win was impressive that weekend as I had Pitt and thought for sure Palko would be able to throw on them.

Now that Pitt got beat by So Fla, it takes away from that win a little bit thats not important. Palko was hot coming into the game and never had a shot at throwing the ball..

Rutgers must put that kind of pressure on Brohm to cover this game tonight. LVille benefited from a whole bunch of WVU turnovers, 1 for a TD and I don't think Rutgers turns the ball over more than once in this game. I think their offense will be able to grind it out some quality yards..Rice has to be good to go for this offense to have a shot though..

My concerns about RU and teams who generally rely heavy on the run is if they fall down early. LVille is going to get their points, just how many.. 24? 31? 37? Who knows but they will score.. Time is not on the side of RU if LVille jumps out early..Simply put, this offense is not built for a shootout. With that said, LVille is beatable and its Thurs night and there is a homedog.. LVille off biggest win of the yr, emotionally where are they at? You would think they would be focused because they are #3 but we will see.. You know RU will be ready to play and Shiano is a good D-Cord..

I won't be playing this game but I will be rooting for RU to win and mess this BCS crap up..

Goodluck to every1 playing this one!
 
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Good point Nut...

However, if we have a healthy QB and a healthy RB (which we have now), we have a different story. Petrino admitted that he limited his play book prior to WV game so not to give away anything. I was at the WV game. Score was no where near as close as how we played. Even when we went into the HT up 1, we outplayed them tremendously.

If we are talking kickers, well Carmody can flat arse kick. He will set the school scoring record today. He will also probably kick more field goals that Rutgers has TD's. Yes, Rutger's Defense is good. Yes, Louisville didn't score against Cincy, Syracuse and MTSU like they should have (and I lost my arse on those games). Oh yeah, no one is mentioning that UL did have the 5th best pts allowed defense a couple weeks ago in the country. Give up a couple to Cincy and then WVU (who has a top offense in country) and everyone forgets that UL is not hear because of their offense. Defense is what has made us undefeated. Also, no one on UL is content or satisfied. Good health on these. But no way Rutgers can play within 10 pts of UL.
 
Many aspects of these teams are comparable, but there's one very glaring difference: Brian Brohm vs. Mike Teel. One has played in huge games and come up big in those games. The other has never seen any sort of environment or pressure like this, and has thrown 8 picks with only 6 TDs this season. Easy call for me on this game. 34-17 Louisville.
 
Hardball said:
Good point Nut...
........Score was no where near as close as how we played. Even when we went into the HT up 1, we outplayed them tremendously.

......Defense is what has made us undefeated.
you are obviously a homer because these statements couldn't be further from the truth!! if you consider giving up over 540 yards including more than 300 yards rushing great defense then I guess you are right. Also, W. Va. actually out-gained Louisville for the game.
 
sportluver said:
you are obviously a homer because these statements couldn't be further from the truth!! if you consider giving up over 540 yards including more than 300 yards rushing great defense then I guess you are right. Also, W. Va. actually out-gained Louisville for the game.


I wonder what you will think of the phony Rutgers defense after this game?
Rutgers was outgained by So. Fla 347 to 326 and only won that game 22-20 on THREE turnovers by So. FL.
 
G-Man said:
I wonder what you will think of the phony Rutgers defense after this game?
Rutgers was outgained by So. Fla 347 to 326 and only won that game 22-20 on THREE turnovers by So. FL.

never said i was taking rutgers or louisville just pointed this out because it was bad information.
 
love that play Big Al

on RU ML +225


will try and grab +7 later if i can get it...my man is stick on 6.5
 
I just dont see how everyone is talking about an offensive explosion for Lville. Last week at home they scored 30 on offense and most of there drives had pretty solid field position (3TD/3FG). They were never backed up so to speak. They also continued to struggle inside the 10 yard line setting for FGs instead of TDS. Again this is home versus a very average defense. This game and situation is a much tougher task.

Look at Cuse they score only 28 points and get a TD with a minute left to ice the game. They also couldnt score till about 5 minutes before halftime versus a decent defense. That defense simply wore down. Conservative game plan or not you playing an inferior team.

When they played @ KSt and Mid Tenn St it is tough to grade because Brohm was OUT. However those are still medicore talent levels.

Rutgers with Rice and Leonard will run the ball and run it some more. Teel will make about 5 plays in the game.....it will be close because of the RU defense. Nothing has changed about Lville from before the WVU game. They are getting way to much credit. They still have holes on defense and still dont put the ball in teh end zone consistently

Rutgers is scrappy and that doesnt show up in boxscores plus they have improved every step of the way. Winning breeds momentum and they have it...Imore impressed with RU winning at Pitt then Lville winning at home Lville or WVU....People knocking USF...?? I dont get that they have ayoung QB and battled a lack of RB issue for most of the season yet this team played well jsut about every week.

Gonna be a great game where the least mistakes win. Think we see a 23-20 final. There is definetly and edge to RU having some extra time off and being home for the GAME of the DECADE it will be impossible for Lville to get the same type of energy and emotion as it did last week. Dont tell me BCS or anything they simlply arent home and thats all..

GL all
 
I love Rutgers they will win outright tonight!!!


Louisville @ Rutgers
11/9/2006 7:30 PM
NSS 305
Opening Line: LOUISVILLE -5
Opening O/U: 54
Current Line: LOUISVILLE -5
Current O/U: 51
Straight: 71% V 29% H
Teaser: 72% V 28% H
O/U: 57% O 43% U
 
cant mess with this man

20051227.jpg
 
Big Al and HUNT, you two know I respect your thoughts and opinions on games, and I think we are all three on Navy this week, but I can't see Rutgers as a SU win nor a good cover.

These are basically the same teams as last year, yet, last year, Louisville won this game 56-5 and rolled up over 500 yards of offense!! What has changed to make up a 49 point deficit this year on Rutgers part?

The answer is nothing. It is either a bet here for the Cardinals, or no bet. Me, personally, I bet $500 on the Cards -5.5.

Good luck on all your other plays and GO NAVY!!!


beer.gif
 
wow den, huge bet man..I just think anything can happen tonight as a home undefeated 7 point dog....glad we got navy before the line went sky high bro..hope we cash big this weekend.
 
SportsNut said:
I just dont see how everyone is talking about an offensive explosion for Lville. Last week at home they scored 30 on offense and most of there drives had pretty solid field position (3TD/3FG). They were never backed up so to speak. They also continued to struggle inside the 10 yard line setting for FGs instead of TDS. Again this is home versus a very average defense. This game and situation is a much tougher task.

Look at Cuse they score only 28 points and get a TD with a minute left to ice the game. They also couldnt score till about 5 minutes before halftime versus a decent defense. That defense simply wore down. Conservative game plan or not you playing an inferior team.

When they played @ KSt and Mid Tenn St it is tough to grade because Brohm was OUT. However those are still medicore talent levels.

Rutgers with Rice and Leonard will run the ball and run it some more. Teel will make about 5 plays in the game.....it will be close because of the RU defense. Nothing has changed about Lville from before the WVU game. They are getting way to much credit. They still have holes on defense and still dont put the ball in teh end zone consistently

Rutgers is scrappy and that doesnt show up in boxscores plus they have improved every step of the way. Winning breeds momentum and they have it...Imore impressed with RU winning at Pitt then Lville winning at home Lville or WVU....People knocking USF...?? I dont get that they have ayoung QB and battled a lack of RB issue for most of the season yet this team played well jsut about every week.

Gonna be a great game where the least mistakes win. Think we see a 23-20 final. There is definetly and edge to RU having some extra time off and being home for the GAME of the DECADE it will be impossible for Lville to get the same type of energy and emotion as it did last week. Dont tell me BCS or anything they simlply arent home and thats all..

GL all

excellent thoughts Nut
 
Al, what do you think about Rutgers 1h +3.5? I think they have to come out firing and be up at the half if they want any shot in this game. Thoughts?
 
Galt, I like that play too. It won't be some huge rally IMO. Should be tight right throughout.
 
SoonerBS said:
Big Al and HUNT, you two know I respect your thoughts and opinions on games, and I think we are all three on Navy this week, but I can't see Rutgers as a SU win nor a good cover.

These are basically the same teams as last year, yet, last year, Louisville won this game 56-5 and rolled up over 500 yards of offense!! What has changed to make up a 49 point deficit this year on Rutgers part?

The answer is nothing. It is either a bet here for the Cardinals, or no bet. Me, personally, I bet $500 on the Cards -5.5.

Good luck on all your other plays and GO NAVY!!!


beer.gif

Alot has changed though. First that changed is the venue tremendous difference bewteen home and away. While it might NOT be worth 49 points in college the difference of playing at home as to compared to on the road is immeasurable. Why? Anyone can be beaten on the road. Hell the Ville lost @ USF last year who amazingly had a great back in Andre Hall and bad QB in Jumiste...seems similiar doesnt it? USF could NOT go to Papa John and win but on the road anything can happen. So while theoritically we assign 3 or 4 points for home field it can be worth 30 or 40 points in an outcome on a given day. Simply approach it as any medicore team can UPSET someone very good at home. The majority of upsets are home dogs not road dogs. Especially in college sports where we are dealing with young men who dont understand the importance of focus and preparing properly.

Also Teel played that game as Freshman in place of Ryan Hart who we all know could sling it ...see the ASU Bowl Game. The major difference bewteen this RU team and last is the defense. RU had no defense at all last season and couldnt stop anyone and I thought that would be the same this season. Forget about stats just remember for the tough games they played @ USF & @ Pitt the offenses underperformed in those games especially in the Pitt game. For all the big leads RU had the defense still played great football. garbage points..dont see many..Outside of Miami and WVU just who has this Ville team played? Cincy and Syrcause thats all...both teams hung around and we can say well Brohm was coming back from injury but Cincy is a real poor mans RU squad IMO.

What has changed from that game from last season? As well as Teel being a Frosh so was Ray Rice and I think you would agree Rice is a stud this year just not the decent prospect he was last year. Last year that game was 14-5 but Lville managed a TD inside of a minute before half . How? Teel threw a pass that was picked off and returned to the RU 4 with 1 minute remaining before half! How is a freshman throwing in that situation? Awful job by RU there...14-5 game at half is a ball game 21-5 oh what a difference. Also Lville 1st TD was a 29 yard drive after RU kicked a FG the kick return went for 60 yards to set up the short field. The second TD was again setup by a nice return and started them at the 34 would have been 44 but holding penalty. RU had them stopped on 3rd and 5 at the RU 26 but pass interference kept it alive and they later scored. So where is the great Lville offense in the 1st Half??? They needed alot of help on there home field to score there points.

1st H drive Chart
3-4Punt01:56UL 203-4Punt07:35103:11UL 29729Rushing Touchdown03:17102:44UL 34767Rushing Touchdown11:28200:37UL 11314Fumble09:18201:39UL 103-5Safety05:55202:34UL 8527Punt00:55200:05UL 414Rushing Touchdown

They then exploded for 35 2nd H points so a very misleading final. RU didnt have the horses last year to play 60 minutes and the young team went into the lockerroom dejected that I am sure off. They ran 29 plays for 132 yards.... RU never came out of the locker room so that Final couldnt be more mislaeading........ALOT has changed.....

Its talent versus home field ....hope this game is a great as it appears on paper......
 
Go to ESPN.com for the DRIVE Charts for last year

Cardinals Drive Summaries
STARTQTRPOSS.YRDLPLAYSYARDSRESULT
13:00 1 01:56 UL 20 3 -4 Punt
07:35 1 03:11 UL 29 7 29 Rushing Touchdown
03:17 1 02:44 UL 34 7 67 Rushing Touchdown
11:28 2 00:37 UL 11 3 14 Fumble
09:18 2 01:39 UL 10 3 -5 Safety
05:55 2 02:34 UL 8 5 27 Punt
00:55 2 00:05 RU 4 1 4 Rushing Touchdown
 
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Nut, love the points again. I remember having Ville last year and that late TD in first half changed game for sure in my mind. Good cappin as always man.

Ka, I certainly hope so!
 
Thanks Bar. Just didnt think last years game was a very good reference point. You could look at he final and think RU was overmatched but for 30 minutes they didnt appear to be. I remember Teel was playing and he is and was no where near Ryan Hart. Ray Rice was a rook and he surpassed all expecttaions this year.

I expect a dogfight with with little scoring. It svery key for RU to get ahead early and play with the lead even 3-0. I thought it was telling how Lville ran 29 plays in the 1st H at home against RU and managed only 132 yards...GL
 
That last number is certainly telling because of the horrid RU defense last year.
 
See RU wants the ball first to try and get ahead and play with a lead rather then catch up. very happy that Schiano made that choice since I thought it was the obvious move
 
Never enjoyed a game as much as that one....real proud of that program....played with heart and class...no cheapshots when they had many opps to take some.....
 
Congratulations, Big Al and HUNTDOG. Ya'll made the right call tonight . . . .
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