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NickFazekas
Guest
you still havent given any stats that suggest there is value laying -29.5.
Louisville Line Falling... ??
- Thread starter Inspekdah
- Start date
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NickFazekas
Guest
btw that matchup report is legit, its the same one as the SBR one used here on CTG
RickyBoobie
Pretty much a regular
I bought 2 and got down to -27 with Louisville for my big one.
Seperates on Lville at 29 and 29.5.
MTSU is not very good, Lville in a statement game. I hope Im right.
Seperates on Lville at 29 and 29.5.
MTSU is not very good, Lville in a statement game. I hope Im right.
Have been bothered by the 1/2 line. Holding steady at 17.5 Seems books are adverse to lowering, knowing they woukld be killed on $$ going over 16.5. With a 29.5 line, seems 1/2 would be 16. But with a 17.5 line, does this look like a under 14 line (17.5 + 12.5 = 30) 2nd half? And a 17.5 would be more correct for a 33-34 spread, the original openong line.
Have finally played the 17 (buying the hook) and will take a good close look at the 2nd half line. Fully expect this game to get completely out of hand in the 1st half, but subs have a way of screwing up the 2nd half, so will stay away from the full spread of 29.5.
Have finally played the 17 (buying the hook) and will take a good close look at the 2nd half line. Fully expect this game to get completely out of hand in the 1st half, but subs have a way of screwing up the 2nd half, so will stay away from the full spread of 29.5.
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Good debate going on here. UL is laying the chalk for a reason. They can't win this game by 21 and impress anybody. You can say Temple sucks... but people remember the 62-0 beating. Beatings like that catch eyes and will eventually sway voters I believe. Going on the road here and winning 52-10 here will do the same thing. UL will be up almost 28 at half Nick...
tru
Friend of CTG
Inspekdah said:
almost everyone around tha world has tha same thoughts on this game. tha ville big, they will win by much more than tha line vegas put out. dont u think vegas knows by openin this line at tha ville by 4 tds will not even come close to gettin even action? 7 to 9 outa 10 people are thinkin jus like u, louisville by 40+ points or so. dont u think vegas could have opened this line closer to 35 than 28? if they know they can open this line higher than why isnt it higher? why did it go to 33 now down to 29? im not sayin this will be a close game or a close cover for either side or a blow out, but if everyone around tha net has tha same thoughts on this side why didnt it open 5-6 points higher?
Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
Well, 21 out of 24 cappers from this site agree that Louisville will cover 33 points (from the CTG Friday Night poll). I like to think that those who post their picks on here are more knowledgable than most when it comes to playing spreads. That makes me feel more confident on my LOU p
Nick - you make some solid points as to why Louisville IS NOT the side to play. But you still haven't given any reason as to why MTSU IS the side to play. How do you expect them to score? They sure as hell aren't going to pass on Louisville...and their run game hasn't exactly impressed me this year either.
Louisville was @ Kansas State two weeks ago, and they nearly shut out the Cats (if not for a 60 yard run popped by K State toward the end of the game).
I don't think it's a stretch to say that MTSU's offense is comparible, if not worse than K State's. So why would they have any more difficulty shutting out a Sun Belt School? You can ramble on and on about how this is a televised, Friday Night game. But the same argument was made with Marshall the other night, who had every incentive to win and be pumped for the game. What happened?...in the end, a very average UCF team ended up winning the game SU.
Again, I think everybody on MTSU is overvaluing their wins against those other Sun Belt Schools. The Sun Belt is the worst conference in Division 1-A. Louisville's schedule has been much tougher, and they've handled it with greater ease and without their two potential heisman candidates.
We'll all find out soon enough with this one. Less than an hour until kickoff.
Nick - you make some solid points as to why Louisville IS NOT the side to play. But you still haven't given any reason as to why MTSU IS the side to play. How do you expect them to score? They sure as hell aren't going to pass on Louisville...and their run game hasn't exactly impressed me this year either.
Louisville was @ Kansas State two weeks ago, and they nearly shut out the Cats (if not for a 60 yard run popped by K State toward the end of the game).
I don't think it's a stretch to say that MTSU's offense is comparible, if not worse than K State's. So why would they have any more difficulty shutting out a Sun Belt School? You can ramble on and on about how this is a televised, Friday Night game. But the same argument was made with Marshall the other night, who had every incentive to win and be pumped for the game. What happened?...in the end, a very average UCF team ended up winning the game SU.
Again, I think everybody on MTSU is overvaluing their wins against those other Sun Belt Schools. The Sun Belt is the worst conference in Division 1-A. Louisville's schedule has been much tougher, and they've handled it with greater ease and without their two potential heisman candidates.
We'll all find out soon enough with this one. Less than an hour until kickoff.
Hardball
Active Member
Nick,
Let me put it this way... UL can play with any team in the country. Middle Tenn St can't. Middle Tenn St pass defense is in the bottom 15 in country. FYI, Louisville doesn't run to set up pass... They pass to set up run.
Who is Hunter Cantwell, well terrible last game and he caught the shat from coaches and media here in the Ville. By the way, Petrino is freakin pissed. And they had a week off to prepare for this game.
Spread is covered at half time. Laying biggest bet of year because of thoughts like yours. Middle Tenn St. defense is good.. Whopity do. They played 2 teams. One beat the crap out of them... One gave up a few meaningless points...
Pay the dime and lay the points. By the way, Patrick Carter, 3rd stringer came to Louisville to QB.. His arm is strong. Louisville doesn't give up a TD... And if you think Petrino calls off dogs and waste his chance to keep UL #1 in offense country and keep up his recruiting with the schedule coming up, well, bet Mid Ten St. Just don't ask tomorrow why the hell you think the best offense in the country can't beat a Div II caliber team by 30.
Let me put it this way... UL can play with any team in the country. Middle Tenn St can't. Middle Tenn St pass defense is in the bottom 15 in country. FYI, Louisville doesn't run to set up pass... They pass to set up run.
Who is Hunter Cantwell, well terrible last game and he caught the shat from coaches and media here in the Ville. By the way, Petrino is freakin pissed. And they had a week off to prepare for this game.
Spread is covered at half time. Laying biggest bet of year because of thoughts like yours. Middle Tenn St. defense is good.. Whopity do. They played 2 teams. One beat the crap out of them... One gave up a few meaningless points...
Pay the dime and lay the points. By the way, Patrick Carter, 3rd stringer came to Louisville to QB.. His arm is strong. Louisville doesn't give up a TD... And if you think Petrino calls off dogs and waste his chance to keep UL #1 in offense country and keep up his recruiting with the schedule coming up, well, bet Mid Ten St. Just don't ask tomorrow why the hell you think the best offense in the country can't beat a Div II caliber team by 30.
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abcs
Guest
Yea i just read about that k st game. Basicall KST did nothing til they popped that long td. The ville turned it over on 3 straight possessions. Thus the score wasnt as bad as it should have been. Having a week to prepare with the first team will help the offense. If middle tenn scores over 10 i will be shocked
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NickFazekas
Guest
Im not overvaluing anything or even saying these teams are in the same league. Im just pointing out the numbers don't back up a 30+ point win on the road as being close to a 50% probability.
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abcs
Guest
Nick have you seen Middle Tenn ST play? do you know one player on their team? Do you know what city their in? What conf?
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NickFazekas
Guest
Clint Marks, I bet I know more about him than you
Hardball
Active Member
Stat #1... Louisville #2 offense in Country. Stat #2 Louisville Defense against run top tier in country. Stat 3, Mid Tenn St #11 in country in D against the run vs. one strong running team. Stat 4, UL wants Nat'l Championship and Petrino knows you don't get that by winning games... You get that by beating the shat out of the spreads! Stat 5, Cantwell almost completing 65% of passes. Stat 6, UL 3 turnovers against Kansas St. Stat 7, Hunter Cantwell didn't read defenses and locked on #1 pass option entire Kansas St. Game. Stat 8, UL's scoring Defense is top 5 in Country. Stat 9, Midd Tenn St doesn't score a touchdown. Stat 10, Number 1 offense (after tonight) will score at will from starting on their own 40 all night long. And finally stat 10, Hunter has 1.5 games left and he has to perform tonight to beat out Carter in 08. Stat 11, Mario will score 3 times today and regain #1 receiver for Louisville. Stat 12, Rod Council and 2 other starters are back for this game.
Mark my words... Never bet against the best offense in the country against a team that could easily be Div 2.
Mark my words... Never bet against the best offense in the country against a team that could easily be Div 2.
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abcs
Guest
You do realize this isnt at Middle Tenn's stadium. There will more than likely be more louisville fans there than blue raider ones
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NickFazekas
Guest
Its 20 minutes away bro, it's still a road game for Louisville. You still have made no reasonable case for line value on Louisville.
tru
Friend of CTG
Aztec4Life said:
i will agree tha cappers around here at ctg are tha best out there an hate to go against em when theres a huge consensus.
how does marshall on wednesday even in this conversation? marshall was favored in that game, mts is at home an a dog. only thing they are close to tha same in, is they both at home on a nationally televised game. its really like comparin apples an oranges.
Hardball
Active Member
FYI, Patrick Carter only came to Louisville because he was promised a chance to play QB for the Cards. Some of you guys might remember another 4 star athlete that did the same. His name was Micheal Bush. Most people thought Bush was better than Brohm when they faced off in class 4A state championship. And so the arguement continued as Brohm came to Louisville and Petrino kept Bush in the RB position.
By the way, Carter is a QB type player that runs and throws like Randall Cunningham. His arm strength is better than Cantwells.
However, don't listen to me.. I get emotional connected once a year on a game and I pay the price. This one ain't it. It will be Nov 2.
By the way, Carter is a QB type player that runs and throws like Randall Cunningham. His arm strength is better than Cantwells.
However, don't listen to me.. I get emotional connected once a year on a game and I pay the price. This one ain't it. It will be Nov 2.
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abcs
Guest
tru said:
Except they arent at home :spank:
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abcs
Guest
This is a heated debate with neither side bringing much meat to the table. Im ready for kickoff though.
