Louisville Line Falling... ??
- Thread starter Inspekdah
- Start date
Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
Wow...it's down to 30, and could even drop lower...
I'm wishing I would've waited on this one.
I'm wishing I would've waited on this one.
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
-29.5 at pinny..
I got Louie - 19 1st half.. I am really considering the full game now.. Comeon, How could you seriously make a reasonable decision and bet Middle Tenn St? Anyone here that bet Midd Tenn please let me know why.. I don't want to come off the wrong way bout saying that but in my opinion its Louie or No bet..
I got Louie - 19 1st half.. I am really considering the full game now.. Comeon, How could you seriously make a reasonable decision and bet Middle Tenn St? Anyone here that bet Midd Tenn please let me know why.. I don't want to come off the wrong way bout saying that but in my opinion its Louie or No bet..
Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
everythingthatsgreen - I agree 100% bro. :shake:
Hardball
Active Member
Pound that Shat!
Let it keep falling. Like money from the sky... All this is because of the defense Middle Tenn put up against Oklahoma and Maryland. Just a note, UL isn't even in those leagues. They are a top 5 team in the Nation playing a team with an offense ranked in the bottom 10 out of 119. If you think you can stop Louisville from scoring when they start at mid field everytime, your nuts.
Mid tenn st. defense ranked top 20 in nation, but come on. Look at who they have played. Take out OK, and what do you have... And look at their final scores. Mid Tenn state lucky to score 10.
Louisville is pissed. Just on the nightly radio show. They aren't getting any respect. You'll see. Seriously, Mid Tenn crosses 50 maybe, just maybe 3 times.
Let it keep falling. Like money from the sky... All this is because of the defense Middle Tenn put up against Oklahoma and Maryland. Just a note, UL isn't even in those leagues. They are a top 5 team in the Nation playing a team with an offense ranked in the bottom 10 out of 119. If you think you can stop Louisville from scoring when they start at mid field everytime, your nuts.
Mid tenn st. defense ranked top 20 in nation, but come on. Look at who they have played. Take out OK, and what do you have... And look at their final scores. Mid Tenn state lucky to score 10.
Louisville is pissed. Just on the nightly radio show. They aren't getting any respect. You'll see. Seriously, Mid Tenn crosses 50 maybe, just maybe 3 times.
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NickFazekas
Guest
Why would anyone bet middle tenn st? Because 30 points is alot of fucking points. Thats 10 Fg's. I have +32, I can lose 35-3 and still push. Who is Louisville?
and middle tenn st is WAAAY better than temple lol thats another reason:smiley_acbe:
and middle tenn st is WAAAY better than temple lol thats another reason:smiley_acbe:
RickyBoobie
Pretty much a regular
Im really not seeing it. An average OU offense put 60 on them.
DiceMan
Pretty much a regular
The Team Total O/U for MTSU for the first half is only 4 points? Are they really that bad? I mean, that's just a couple field goals in an entire first half. One TD! I know I'm new to college football and all, but this just seems silly to me. Does anyone think taking Over 4 is at all sensible?
I picked up 1 unit at -32.5 if the line keeps falling I might get 2 more. At the very least I'm picking up one for the first half. Louisville is in another class no question. If the line goes below 27 I would wonder who is throwing the cash in a big way against Louisville. It could be this line goes back up to 32 by game time, what does everyone think?
Mugg
Dawg Fan
Already hit the 1st hf @ -18.5 & now the game @ -29.5
Only thing I can think of is Lville calling off the dogs after getting a big lead.........but that doesn't mean MTS won't cough up the ball for pts. ........& to be honest, I can't see Lville risking a mediocre performance after getting waxed by SFlor LY.
Only thing I can think of is Lville calling off the dogs after getting a big lead.........but that doesn't mean MTS won't cough up the ball for pts. ........& to be honest, I can't see Lville risking a mediocre performance after getting waxed by SFlor LY.
Diceman-
This Louisville defensive unit has been underrated the entire year and has yet to receive proper recognition through the media. As someone has already stated, I'll be able to count on one hand the amount of times MTSU will be in Louisville territory tonight. As for getting to the red zone.... I'd be very surprised, to say the least. The additions of CB Rod Council and DE Jonathon Holston from injury will make this unit stronger than ever.
This Louisville defensive unit has been underrated the entire year and has yet to receive proper recognition through the media. As someone has already stated, I'll be able to count on one hand the amount of times MTSU will be in Louisville territory tonight. As for getting to the red zone.... I'd be very surprised, to say the least. The additions of CB Rod Council and DE Jonathon Holston from injury will make this unit stronger than ever.
I just picked up another unit for the first half at -17.5, my thinking is that even if they call off the dogs, it won't happen until the second half. This way if they don't cover my 32.5 for the game they certainly will for the first half. If they do for the game,I pick up two units. If they don't I push.
Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
Just put another unit on Louisville -30
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NickFazekas
Guest
Yeah im serious, who is Louisville? They havent beat anybody to my recolection. They have never really done anything if you wanna get technical. I really dont give a damn if they can beat Miami at home or temple 62-0. It's painfully obvious somebody knows something here in this game, I would be very careful laying this whale of a spread even with Petrino.:shake:
Laying -30 with Hunter Fucking Cantwell is a joke and a half!!!
Laying -30 with Hunter Fucking Cantwell is a joke and a half!!!
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
LOL...cmon dude....if you wanna take the points, take the points...but it needs to be something about MDST, not "who is Lville" and who have they beat....cause that means jackshit in this game, IMO...
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NickFazekas
Guest
they scored 21 points with cantwell running the show last game, now you all wanna lay -30 lol.
*edit they scored 24 excuse me
*edit they scored 24 excuse me
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NickFazekas
Guest
I don't mean to slam anyone either you guys are the shit, but checking the CTG consensus on this game im one of 4 people apparently on MTSU but I just can't see any value in laying THAT many points with a backup QB, in what is still a road game??
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
I get that bro...but MDST gave up 59 to OU....does KState's D give up 59 to OU this year??
The talent difference here is substantial....this is the type of game that Petrino gets Cantwell healthy...numbers wise...KState was a game they survived....and it wasn't even as close as that score showed..
The talent difference here is substantial....this is the type of game that Petrino gets Cantwell healthy...numbers wise...KState was a game they survived....and it wasn't even as close as that score showed..
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abcs
Guest
NickFazekas said:
This has to be the dumbest comment i have ever seen :shake: Who is middle tenn st? Who have they beaten? You must put a lot of value in that 7 - 6 win over fl intl. Dude you just posted a whole bunch of crap with nothing to back up your point. Are you telling me middle tenn st will be a tough road game for UL?
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NickFazekas
Guest
ok well then they are wasting all our time even putting a line out for this game and I don't even know why the fuck espn2 would wanna broadcast the game.
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NickFazekas
Guest
abcs--thelegend said:
Wow, dumbest comment ever? I sure win alot to be so damn stupid.
Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
Nick - I have to agree with Jump on this one. Miami may not be the powerhouse they have been in recent past, but it was still damn impressive the way the Cardinals roughed them up a few weeks ago. That alone gives me enough reason to think they're legit.
Do you really think MTS has much of a chance to score more than 10? Their offense is ridicuously limited/one dimensional. They average almost as many passing yards/game (130) as they do rushing yards/game (121). The only reason their rush defense looks so good is due to their matchups against...
Fla. International - 97 yards
Tennessee Tech - 10 yards
North Texas - 40 yards
Maryland rushed for 140 and Oklahoma for 190. But the reason Oklahoma was able to blow them out so bad was MTS's lack of a passing attack. MTS's defense is decent, but they can only do so much. Sooner or later, their inconsistency and one dimensional offense will result in turnovers, giving Louisville shorter fields and easier opportunities to score.
MTS beat up North Texas pretty bad last week, but they were +3 in the turnover margin. The same goes with their early rout of Tennessee Tech, when they were +4 in the turnover margin. When they played superior opponents this season, they were minus in the turnover margin both games...Maryland (-2) and Oklahoma (-3).
I will be surprised if Louisville isn't up by 20+ at halftime.
GL fellas. :cheers:
Do you really think MTS has much of a chance to score more than 10? Their offense is ridicuously limited/one dimensional. They average almost as many passing yards/game (130) as they do rushing yards/game (121). The only reason their rush defense looks so good is due to their matchups against...
Fla. International - 97 yards
Tennessee Tech - 10 yards
North Texas - 40 yards
Maryland rushed for 140 and Oklahoma for 190. But the reason Oklahoma was able to blow them out so bad was MTS's lack of a passing attack. MTS's defense is decent, but they can only do so much. Sooner or later, their inconsistency and one dimensional offense will result in turnovers, giving Louisville shorter fields and easier opportunities to score.
MTS beat up North Texas pretty bad last week, but they were +3 in the turnover margin. The same goes with their early rout of Tennessee Tech, when they were +4 in the turnover margin. When they played superior opponents this season, they were minus in the turnover margin both games...Maryland (-2) and Oklahoma (-3).
I will be surprised if Louisville isn't up by 20+ at halftime.
GL fellas. :cheers:
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NickFazekas
Guest
Who is Louisville?
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abcs
Guest
Through four games, the University of Louisville is ranked No. 5 in the nation in rushing defense and among the nation's top 10 in scoring defense at just 10 points allowed per game. Not bad for a school more known for offense. The Cards' defense is about to get even stronger for Friday night's match-up with Middle Tennessee.
Louisville coach Bobby Petrino said starting linebacker Abe Brown and safety Jonathan Russell will be back in the line-up for No. 8 U of L's game with MTSU. In addition to Brown and Russell, the Cards could be getting a pair of defensive linemen back into the action.
By the way Oklahoma could have run up 100 on Middle Tenn ST. The score was 45 - 0 at half, they called it off in the second half only scoring 2 td's. OU's defense isnt as good as tha villes imo. Good luck trying to score points here against a team who has had a whole week to game plan and get back players.
Louisville coach Bobby Petrino said starting linebacker Abe Brown and safety Jonathan Russell will be back in the line-up for No. 8 U of L's game with MTSU. In addition to Brown and Russell, the Cards could be getting a pair of defensive linemen back into the action.
By the way Oklahoma could have run up 100 on Middle Tenn ST. The score was 45 - 0 at half, they called it off in the second half only scoring 2 td's. OU's defense isnt as good as tha villes imo. Good luck trying to score points here against a team who has had a whole week to game plan and get back players.
jimmymo
Beer and Betting Belong Together
Dr. Bob released MTSU as a play -- I wouldn't touch MTSU personally -- not sure if this is OK to post this, but thought you guys may find it interesting -- if it is agaisnt the rules, I apologize and won't do it again.:shake:
2 Star Selection
MIDDLE TENN (+32.5) 13 Louisville 35
06-Oct-06 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Louisville has rolled to a 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS start, but Louisville applies to a negative 9-32 ATS game 5 road favorite situation that is based on that success. Middle Tennessee State, meanwhile, is a solid defensive team coming off a 35-0 upset win over North Texas and the Blue Raiders apply to a 92-40-3 ATS home underdog momentum situation and a solid 79-41-2 ATS situation that is based on shutting out their last opponent (that angle is 18-3-1 for dogs of 8 points or more). It’s the Middle Tennessee defense that is likely to keep them under a huge number, as the Blue Raiders have allowed just 4.4 yards per play in 5 games against teams that would combine to average 4.8 yppl against an average defense. Oklahoma did manage to score 59 points against that unit, but a lot of that had to do with 5 turnovers by the offense. Middle Tennessee isn’t as good defending the pass as they are at defending the run and Oklahoma torched them for 267 aerial yards on just 21 pass plays, but overall they’ve been average against the pass (5.1 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppp against an average team). My math model projected 8.2 yppp for Louisville in this game, but I noticed that Middle Tennessee dominated bad pass attacks and were exploited a bit by the better teams that they faced. So, I ran a regression between level of opponent’s pass rating and what they actually gave up to each team and the result was a prediction of 9.9 yppp for the Cardinals in this game, which I believe is more realistic. The good news is that Louisville probably won’t feel the need to keep airing it out and the Blue Raiders are very good against the run (3.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.4 yprp) and they limited Oklahoma and Adrian Peterson to just 4.7 yprp a few weeks ago (Oklahoma would average 5.6 yprp at home against an average defense). Louisville has a great rushing attack, but the Blue Raiders should slow them down a bit. Middle Tennessee isn’t much offensively (4.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team), but Louisville is just average defensively (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yppl against an average team) so the Raiders should have a few scoring chances. My math model, after adjusting Louisville’s pass average up to 9.9 yppp, only favors the Cardinals by 25 ½ points and they’re likely to simply run the ball when they secure a big lead. Big underdogs with good run defenses are usually pretty good bets since it’s tougher to run up the score by simply running the ball late in the game against such teams. In fact, dogs of 25 points or more are 57.7% ATS since 1980 if they allow less than 4.0 ypr (from game 4 on). The situation and the line value favor the big dog in this game and I’ll take Middle Tennessee State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +30 points or more.
2 Star Selection
2 Star Selection
06-Oct-06 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Louisville has rolled to a 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS start, but Louisville applies to a negative 9-32 ATS game 5 road favorite situation that is based on that success. Middle Tennessee State, meanwhile, is a solid defensive team coming off a 35-0 upset win over North Texas and the Blue Raiders apply to a 92-40-3 ATS home underdog momentum situation and a solid 79-41-2 ATS situation that is based on shutting out their last opponent (that angle is 18-3-1 for dogs of 8 points or more). It’s the Middle Tennessee defense that is likely to keep them under a huge number, as the Blue Raiders have allowed just 4.4 yards per play in 5 games against teams that would combine to average 4.8 yppl against an average defense. Oklahoma did manage to score 59 points against that unit, but a lot of that had to do with 5 turnovers by the offense. Middle Tennessee isn’t as good defending the pass as they are at defending the run and Oklahoma torched them for 267 aerial yards on just 21 pass plays, but overall they’ve been average against the pass (5.1 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 5.1 yppp against an average team). My math model projected 8.2 yppp for Louisville in this game, but I noticed that Middle Tennessee dominated bad pass attacks and were exploited a bit by the better teams that they faced. So, I ran a regression between level of opponent’s pass rating and what they actually gave up to each team and the result was a prediction of 9.9 yppp for the Cardinals in this game, which I believe is more realistic. The good news is that Louisville probably won’t feel the need to keep airing it out and the Blue Raiders are very good against the run (3.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.4 yprp) and they limited Oklahoma and Adrian Peterson to just 4.7 yprp a few weeks ago (Oklahoma would average 5.6 yprp at home against an average defense). Louisville has a great rushing attack, but the Blue Raiders should slow them down a bit. Middle Tennessee isn’t much offensively (4.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team), but Louisville is just average defensively (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yppl against an average team) so the Raiders should have a few scoring chances. My math model, after adjusting Louisville’s pass average up to 9.9 yppp, only favors the Cardinals by 25 ½ points and they’re likely to simply run the ball when they secure a big lead. Big underdogs with good run defenses are usually pretty good bets since it’s tougher to run up the score by simply running the ball late in the game against such teams. In fact, dogs of 25 points or more are 57.7% ATS since 1980 if they allow less than 4.0 ypr (from game 4 on). The situation and the line value favor the big dog in this game and I’ll take Middle Tennessee State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +30 points or more.
2 Star Selection
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
NickFazekas....L'ville game aside...I would like you to weigh in on this thread...haven't heard much Wolfpack people's opinions from your or pags on this one...
http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4207
http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=4207
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NickFazekas
Guest
so matchup report says Louisville -26 (with numbers based on Brohm, not Cantwell)
How does this lead you to believe if they played this game 1,000 times >50% of them would be louie winning by 30+ with Cantwell? Just doesn't add up.
How does this lead you to believe if they played this game 1,000 times >50% of them would be louie winning by 30+ with Cantwell? Just doesn't add up.
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
BTW - the reason for the drop is that Petrino signaled in his radio address that he will play his back up QB (not Hunter, but the other guy) early in the game (his name is Carter)...
I think that's the reason for the drop...
I think that's the reason for the drop...
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
This from a covers article.. When a team cares that much about being #1 in offense, you have to think their going to try anything they have to, to ensure they are #1 after 2night...Correct?
Cardinals want to be No. 1
For most of this season, Louisville had the top rated offense in college football. But at the conclusion of last weekend, New Mexico State overtook the Cardinals as the nation’s top offense, pushing Louisville to number two.
This isn’t sitting well with the Cardinals. Despite averaging 523 total yards and 44 points a game so far, Louisville desperately wants to up these numbers tonight.
“Every week we have to get back to the No. 1 offense in the nation,” Cardinals receiver Mario Urrutia told the media. “We do thrive on that. That`s a big thing for us, really.” Against Division I-A opponents this year, Middle Tennessee State has given up an average of 22.25 points a game and 271.5 total offensive yards per game.
Cardinals want to be No. 1
For most of this season, Louisville had the top rated offense in college football. But at the conclusion of last weekend, New Mexico State overtook the Cardinals as the nation’s top offense, pushing Louisville to number two.
This isn’t sitting well with the Cardinals. Despite averaging 523 total yards and 44 points a game so far, Louisville desperately wants to up these numbers tonight.
“Every week we have to get back to the No. 1 offense in the nation,” Cardinals receiver Mario Urrutia told the media. “We do thrive on that. That`s a big thing for us, really.” Against Division I-A opponents this year, Middle Tennessee State has given up an average of 22.25 points a game and 271.5 total offensive yards per game.
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NickFazekas
Guest
NickFazekas said:
I mean that somewhat tongue-in-cheek but the fact is USC they are not.
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NickFazekas
Guest
you are definitly a nobody if you dont beat temple by 35-0 or worse, so lets throw that outlier game out since even D-1 bottom feeders crush temple. That shaves their "real" stats to 38 ppg while allowing 14 ppg. Obviously Middle tenn st is a step down from kentucky, K state, Miami, but this is going to be somewhat offset by Petrino playing his punt returner at QB right?
Matchup report, along with every other stat actually points to this being too many points. Cmon abcs give me some stats that says this should be a 40 point win since your all into the stats.
Matchup report, along with every other stat actually points to this being too many points. Cmon abcs give me some stats that says this should be a 40 point win since your all into the stats.
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NickFazekas
Guest
I guess I better get ready to hear 59-0 to oklahoma, but would you have wanted to go play at oklahoma that game?
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
about as much as playing L'Ville this game and losing money doing it...
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abcs
Guest
Looking at the sagarin rating.. Middle Tenn's big wins have come against
Tenn Tech was 196
Fl International is 148 (a 1 pt win at home)
N Texas is 126
Oh yea temple is 169 so lets throw out the tenn tech game right ?
Tenn Tech was 196
Fl International is 148 (a 1 pt win at home)
N Texas is 126
Oh yea temple is 169 so lets throw out the tenn tech game right ?
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NickFazekas
Guest
throw out the tenn tech game be my guest man.
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NickFazekas
Guest
they are coming off a 35-0 road win at no texas man you cant just sit here and say they suck. This is a real team lol.
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NickFazekas
Guest
abcs--thelegend said:
I think your the one who is just posting crap without anything to back it up (in this game atleast)
Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
Nick - I have to agree with abcs on this one. Of course, this is all just my opinion, but I think this game is very similar to Cal @ Oregon State last week. For one, Oregon State's numbers were very misleading (their total defense was like in the top 10 or top 15). Pts for and against also looked great, but after looking at the competition they had faced, it was clear they hadn't clashed with a solid team yet. Cal was favored by 10, and ended up rolling OSU by like 30 points.
I'm not drawing comparisons to Cal & Louisville in this situation...just the spots they are in and the opponents they are facing. I honestly feel that MTSU is overrated...and not just a little bit. We all saw how a one dimensional offense (Miami) fared against Louisville. The difference is, Miami has a very good defense. MTSU's is perhaps below average, at best. Louisville SHOULD have just as much success running the ball as Oklahoma did.
If you don't mind...could you provide your reasons why MTSU is the right side? How do you expect MTSU to score points? :shake:
I'm not drawing comparisons to Cal & Louisville in this situation...just the spots they are in and the opponents they are facing. I honestly feel that MTSU is overrated...and not just a little bit. We all saw how a one dimensional offense (Miami) fared against Louisville. The difference is, Miami has a very good defense. MTSU's is perhaps below average, at best. Louisville SHOULD have just as much success running the ball as Oklahoma did.
If you don't mind...could you provide your reasons why MTSU is the right side? How do you expect MTSU to score points? :shake:
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NickFazekas
Guest
well heres the matchup report
http://www.oobg.com/stats/statfeed.php?page=cfb/expanded&gameid=20061006MIDDLETENNST&sit=1&back=1
I might be too dumb to read, but I make it out to be Louisville -26. And the matchup report uses power ratings of which 3/4 of the results are Brian Brohm as QB.
MTSU the more overated of these two teams, that has to be a joke right?:shake:
http://www.oobg.com/stats/statfeed.php?page=cfb/expanded&gameid=20061006MIDDLETENNST&sit=1&back=1
I might be too dumb to read, but I make it out to be Louisville -26. And the matchup report uses power ratings of which 3/4 of the results are Brian Brohm as QB.
MTSU the more overated of these two teams, that has to be a joke right?:shake:
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abcs
Guest
So your relying on the stats of some website, or some touts breakdown of the game? You have yet to give us any information on middle tenn st, or explain how they are gonna score.
