Los Angeles/Washington Total




BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
Under 213.5

- all my stats based on opening lines & regulation totals.


Los Angeles

- Kobe enters this game off a 53 pt personal haul in his last game. Since losing Shaq, LA off a Kobe 50+ points game is...

6-1 to Under, average of 190.1 points, in all games.
5-0 to Under, average of 188.0 points, in home games.
4-0 to Under, average of 188.0 points, in all games off 1 days rest
3-0 to Under, average of 195.0 points, vs teams like WAS (those being GDS & PHX)

- is U/O 4-2-1 at an average of 190.8 points vs Eastern teams this season, as opposed to U/O 5-11 an an average of 203.3 points vs Western teams.

- is U/O 8-8-1 at an average of 196.6 points in home games this season, as opposed to U/O 1-5 at an average of 207.6 points in road games.

- is expressing their total results in clear streaks this season....

4-0 to Over, average of 219.0 points
6-0 to Under, average of 181.1 points
4-0-1 to Over, average of 213.6 points
2-0 to Under, average of 186.5 points
5-0 to Over, average of 201.4 points
1-0 to Under, 178 regulation points

While their Under streaks have varied in length, their Over stretches have been a tight 4-5 games.



Washington

- Has been involved in 200+ point totals for 8 straight games (incl. 3 road games). Their longest previous stretches, over this season to date and last, have been (road games in brackets) - 4(1), 4(2), 5(1), 7(3) & 5(3).
Not one instance of any stretch involving 4 or more road games. This of course is their 4th road game for this current run to contend with.

- is U/O 5-1 at an average of 194.5 points vs Western teams this season, as opposed to U/O 5-11 at an average of 207.1 points vs Eastern teams.

- is U/O 3-0 at an average of 176.6 points on the road vs Western teams, as opposed to U/O 2-1 at an average of 212.3 points at home vs Western teams, this season.

- vs LA since Shaq left, have totaled 185, 188, 176 & 208 points (bolded games in LA).

- is expressing their total results in clear streaks this season....

4-1 to Over, average of 215.2 points
7-2 to Under, average of 189.5 points
5-1 to Over, average of 214.6 points
2-0 to Under, average of 206.0 points

...like LA, Washington's Over streaks have been condensed (5/6 games), while one has to doubt whether the present run lasts the only other Under streak's duration.



It must be hard for someone to have missed the talk by now of LA's prior results bias when last were without the services of Odom - ATS losses and Overs ruled the day. Thats because LA conceded boatloads of points (= ATS losses), and teams scoring easily (as their opposition was on them) arent being asked to bring their best defense, its always the way (= Overs). But there is clear daylight psychologically between that team, in its 1st season without Shaq, and this team, which has playoff experience under it's belt. Not saying they wont miss Odom, but I think its pie in the sky stuff to expect a similar collapse.
These 2 teams show a clear bias for (1) lower scoring games against opposite Conference teams, and (2) for delivering their total results in bunches, of which both teams are either in, or indicating the beginning of, such streaks aligned to Unders. To underscore that fact their history with each other since Shaq went East is to the tune of 3-1 to Under, not once having surpassed this game's total (Odom's absence excepted), and Kobe beef enters this game off a 50+ personal point haul: with no Odom, the Lakers go where he goes, and the stats for this spot for him off such a game clearly show where he & the Lakers go. The only reason I play this small is a rather large Over run is in place in the trend thread. A similar total for my play yesterday got done by a 70 point period - I dont see these teams managing that here.
 
gpcyan - if the trend thread was in a better situation, I'd go larger. But I'm rapidly learning most my total losses are coming when the trend is either undecided or I'm backing against it.

GL to us:cheers:
 
Went 1st Half here...

This is also there 1st West Coast trip I believe...so maybe trouble adjusting...just a guess...last year same spot , nearly same date felw to LA for the 1st West Coast game and lost 97-91 in LA
 
Another interesting fact - all the games today have gone over the total or pushed (Pistons). I like this as I believe o/u's seem to even out at the end of the day... along with the trend and some situational information this is a play for me.
 
gpcyan3 said:
Another interesting fact - all the games today have gone over the total or pushed (Pistons). I like this as I believe o/u's seem to even out at the end of the day... along with the trend and some situational information this is a play for me.

Stay away from that mentality....trust me its useless...take that from a veteran...
 
tee*dub said:
Under 53.5, -110, 1Q... One word. Sluggish... Gl All

Sluggish:smiley_acbe:

money;

Seems like a lot of disinterest on the court.. Nice insight BC
 
tee*dub - a while longer before my bet is concluded. The refs have decided to dish out FTs like candy this 2nd period, keeping things interesting.
 
3 FTs in the 1st - 46 pts
22 FTs in the 2nd - 62 pts

16 pts more, 19 FTs more.

This bet will not survive a 44 FT 2nd half. But the Fakers down 10 off their double OT, 18 pt come from behind win, I seriously wonder at their desire/ability to put in the effort needed to haul this one in.
Could be a blowout Under: at least still have 105 points to work with in light of that.
 
j3p - I dont bet halves. If I did, I wouldnt take Over here. I dont believe this FT rate will keep at 22/period pace, and I still like my bet w/LA down 10.

My guess is LA pushes it in the 3rd to see if they can make headway, and if they dont (which I dont believe they will) they'll quit in the 4th, and neither team will be unhappy to see the end of the game asap. But if LA do make it close it could still go Under, but thats more likely to present the way an Over result gets recorded.
 
Officials: Courtney Kirkland, Dan Crawford, Jason Phillips im just going to bet the over on everygame they call i seen so many soft fouls in this game almost 80 free throw attempts
 
This bet will not survive a 44 FT 2nd half.

There wasnt 44. There was 50, lol.

That and crazy 3-ball shooting. Shit happens.

LA will be playing at Chicago off an OT 230/100-100 game. I've another Under coming with them yet.
 
thecakeoff said:
Officials: Courtney Kirkland, Dan Crawford, Jason Phillips im just going to bet the over on everygame they call i seen so many soft fouls in this game almost 80 free throw attempts

All of the games had a lot of FTs (except for SEA/DET). Maybe Stern sent a memo to call the games tight after the brawl at MSG last night?
 
I hit the alternate total Under 312.5..What was I thinking...Wiz offense is just clicking now go back since they returned home after that failed road trip...like 106 ++

Shit happens...
 
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