Looking @ YOU CTG Members For Help... niners VS Philly...Your Thoughts Appreciated!

Vapster

Vapster

Awesome1#1
Long story short.. and I will be honest with you. I can't do it. So…Long Story… I like to listen to local radio broadcasts, radio broadcasts over the internet, podcasts, all about sports. and all I have heard all week is how Philadelphia is going to win. Most of them say… ‘Philadelphia wins by double digits, maybe one or two guys here are there said they win in a close game.

I have been gambling since I was 21, let's just say 30 plus years, And I always say things are going to be different this time. I am not going to let Vegas fool me. and by now, after all this talk on every radio station and podcast about Philly winning, the line has stayed at two and a half.

We all know about the 3 point (because you're at home line.) yet and still…we're still at two and a half. Everybody and their brother and sister is playing Philadelphia here because the line seems too small. if Vegas was not smart, you wouldn't see all the massive amount of casinos and online gambling sites that we do… They stay in business because sometimes we are not all that bright when it comes to gambling.

If A Line Seems “Too Good 2 B True, It Probably Is…” This Is All About…”A Rookie QB Has Never Done ‘This Or That.’” Yet…Still Only 2.5… 9ers D Is Legit. McCaffrey Is Legit. Ground And Pound…9ers Faced A Better D vs Dallas. East Coast Bias, Blah Blah Blah…

As A Die Hard Raider Fan, I F’n Hate The niners, But I Love My Benjamins. I Was All About 9ers +125 vs Philly…Now I’m Thinking…

Niners Win SB +350

Niners Beat KC In SB +650

Niners Beat CINN In SB +750

This Is Where My “Years Of Gambling” Lacks…How Do I Allot My Ducats?!

½ Unit Here, A Unit There… Ya Know?!

Thanks In Advance CTG… I’m Asking A Serious Question… NOT…”Hey Vapster, Save Your Money…” How Do I Go About This Wager If I’m ALL IN On My Hated Niners?!
 
Vapster said:
Long story short.. and I will be honest with you. I can't do it. So…Long Story… I like to listen to local radio broadcasts, radio broadcasts over the internet, podcasts, all about sports. and all I have heard all week is how Philadelphia is going to win. Most of them say… ‘Philadelphia wins by double digits, maybe one or two guys here are there said they win in a close game.

I have been gambling since I was 21, let's just say 30 plus years, And I always say things are going to be different this time. I am not going to let Vegas fool me. and by now, after all this talk on every radio station and podcast about Philly winning, the line has stayed at two and a half.

We all know about the 3 point (because you're at home line.) yet and still…we're still at two and a half. Everybody and their brother and sister is playing Philadelphia here because the line seems too small. if Vegas was not smart, you wouldn't see all the massive amount of casinos and online gambling sites that we do… They stay in business because sometimes we are not all that bright when it comes to gambling.

If A Line Seems “Too Good 2 B True, It Probably Is…” This Is All About…”A Rookie QB Has Never Done ‘This Or That.’” Yet…Still Only 2.5… 9ers D Is Legit. McCaffrey Is Legit. Ground And Pound…9ers Faced A Better D vs Dallas. East Coast Bias, Blah Blah Blah…

As A Die Hard Raider Fan, I F’n Hate The niners, But I Love My Benjamins. I Was All About 9ers +125 vs Philly…Now I’m Thinking…

Niners Win SB +350

Niners Beat KC In SB +650

Niners Beat CINN In SB +750

This Is Where My “Years Of Gambling” Lacks…How Do I Allot My Ducats?!

½ Unit Here, A Unit There… Ya Know?!

Thanks In Advance CTG… I’m Asking A Serious Question… NOT…”Hey Vapster, Save Your Money…” How Do I Go About This Wager If I’m ALL IN On My Hated Niners?!
Click to expand...

My only question would be why would you take SF to win SB at +350 when they can only play either KC or Cin and either of those will yield you more than +350 by taking both of them. If you end up with KC in the SB and SF wins, you would get +550 (after the lost unit taking SF/Cin), and if you end up with Cin in the SB and SF wins, you would net +650 (again after losing a unit on the SF/KC option).

The only downside I guess would be SF doesn't make it to the SB and you lose 2 units instead of 1...but if you're going with SF to win the SB, you should leave that +350 alone imo.
 
jedi ninja said:
My only question would be why would you take SF to win SB at +350 when they can only play either KC or Cin and either of those will yield you more than +350 by taking both of them. If you end up with KC in the SB and SF wins, you would get +550 (after the lost unit taking SF/Cin), and if you end up with Cin in the SB and SF wins, you would net +650 (again after losing a unit on the SF/KC option).

The only downside I guess would be SF doesn't make it to the SB and you lose 2 units instead of 1...but if you're going with SF to win the SB, you should leave that +350 alone imo.
Click to expand...
Agree... Why After Looking At It... Why Play 9ers +125 vs Philly? Take The +350 To Win SB...

But Then I See +650 & +750...

This Is Where I Hit My Head Against The Wall...
 
$100 To WIn $650

$100 To Win $750...

If I'm Going With '9ers Beat Philly"

Bet $200 Win At Least $550 Or $450 (If My Math Is Correct...)

I Suck At Math...

Hahahaha
 
Vapster said:
$100 To WIn $650

$100 To Win $750...

If I'm Going With '9ers Beat Philly"

Bet $200 Win At Least $550 Or $450 (If My Math Is Correct...)

I Suck At Math...

Hahahaha
Click to expand...

Well you’d win $550 or $650 (probably a typo with the 450) but you can also lose $200 if Philly beats them Sunday.

So you have 2 units on SF to win on Sunday. If that wins, you win 5.5 units, 6.5 units, or lose the original 2 units in the Super Bowl. If you’re willing to risk the 2 units anyway, the way you’re doing it is the way to play it.
 
Vapster said:
Long story short.. and I will be honest with you. I can't do it. So…Long Story… I like to listen to local radio broadcasts, radio broadcasts over the internet, podcasts, all about sports. and all I have heard all week is how Philadelphia is going to win. Most of them say… ‘Philadelphia wins by double digits, maybe one or two guys here are there said they win in a close game.

I have been gambling since I was 21, let's just say 30 plus years, And I always say things are going to be different this time. I am not going to let Vegas fool me. and by now, after all this talk on every radio station and podcast about Philly winning, the line has stayed at two and a half.

We all know about the 3 point (because you're at home line.) yet and still…we're still at two and a half. Everybody and their brother and sister is playing Philadelphia here because the line seems too small. if Vegas was not smart, you wouldn't see all the massive amount of casinos and online gambling sites that we do… They stay in business because sometimes we are not all that bright when it comes to gambling.

If A Line Seems “Too Good 2 B True, It Probably Is…” This Is All About…”A Rookie QB Has Never Done ‘This Or That.’” Yet…Still Only 2.5… 9ers D Is Legit. McCaffrey Is Legit. Ground And Pound…9ers Faced A Better D vs Dallas. East Coast Bias, Blah Blah Blah…

As A Die Hard Raider Fan, I F’n Hate The niners, But I Love My Benjamins. I Was All About 9ers +125 vs Philly…Now I’m Thinking…

Niners Win SB +350

Niners Beat KC In SB +650

Niners Beat CINN In SB +750

This Is Where My “Years Of Gambling” Lacks…How Do I Allot My Ducats?!

½ Unit Here, A Unit There… Ya Know?!

Thanks In Advance CTG… I’m Asking A Serious Question… NOT…”Hey Vapster, Save Your Money…” How Do I Go About This Wager If I’m ALL IN On My Hated Niners?!
Click to expand...

The book I use most has SF to beat Cin at +585 and SF to beat KC at +765.

I only mention it as it’s the opposite of what you have available, with Cin/SF being more likely to happen as opposed to KC/SF, which is what your odds would prognosticate.
 
jedi ninja said:
The book I use most has SF to beat Cin at +585 and SF to beat KC at +765.

I only mention it as it’s the opposite of what you have available, with Cin/SF being more likely to happen as opposed to KC/SF, which is what your odds would prognosticate.
Click to expand...
So Many Books, So Many Different Lines...
 
Vapster said:
$100 To WIn $650

$100 To Win $750...

If I'm Going With '9ers Beat Philly"

Bet $200 Win At Least $550 Or $450 (If My Math Is Correct...)

I Suck At Math...

Hahahaha
Click to expand...
It is late so I may be mistaken…

If the +650 outcome occurs you end up winning +550 with the -100 on the other team losing

If the +750 outcome occurs you end up winning +650 with the same reasoning as before

Why wouldn’t you bet the 200 at +350 and take +700? It seems to be the most profitable wager… you’d have a down payment on the first night at OYO when you go to Vegas
 
RBTrojan said:
It is late so I may be mistaken…

If the +650 outcome occurs you end up winning +550 with the -100 on the other team losing

If the +750 outcome occurs you end up winning +650 with the same reasoning as before

Why wouldn’t you bet the 200 at +350 and take +700? It seems to be the most profitable wager… you’d have a down payment on the first night at OYO when you go to Vegas
Click to expand...
Thanks @RBTrojan That Makes Sense.
 
Vapster said:
$0.00. Have Not Bet On The Game

Only Looking At SB Wager
Click to expand...
Was just trying to figure your scenarios and all look like they involve Niners winning today and the Bowl

Didn't see if you have an out if they win today but lose in the SB
 
I WAS Thinking 100 On 9er ML Today. But Saw The Higher Odds For SB. I Figured If I Like Em Today, Why Not Just Bet The SB Itself With Higher Odds.
 
Vapster said:
I WAS Thinking 100 On 9er ML Today. But Saw The Higher Odds For SB. I Figured If I Like Em Today, Why Not Just Bet The SB Itself With Higher Odds.
Click to expand...
split the bet in 1/2? SF beats Cincy and SF beats KC (if you get better payout)
 
Odds Went From +750 to +775 9ers Beat Cinn...

Still +650 9ers Beat kc...

kc beats 9ers? +725

Cinn beats 9ers? +750

Those Are Some Tasty Odds!
 
If it were me, I would have bet the 200 on San Fran on the ML today at +130 or so... gives you 460 to bet on the SB if they get there. I would be shocked if the niners are not dogs to either cincy or kc. Even if the niners are +100 in the SB the parlay would pay 920 total for a +720 profit. I have no idea what the future lines are for the SB but niners could be a fg dog? So the comeback would be again +130 on the ML. In that scenario, 460 at +130 and the niners win would be a return of 1058 for +858.
 
RBTrojan said:
If it were me, I would have bet the 200 on San Fran on the ML today at +130 or so... gives you 460 to bet on the SB if they get there. I would be shocked if the niners are not dogs to either cincy or kc. Even if the niners are +100 in the SB the parlay would pay 920 total for a +720 profit. I have no idea what the future lines are for the SB but niners could be a fg dog? So the comeback would be again +130 on the ML. In that scenario, 460 at +130 and the niners win would be a return of 1058 for +858.
Click to expand...
@RBTrojan I See +140 Right Now For 9ers Today.

SB Lines...

2001Cincinnati Bengals+1-106Ov47-110
2002San Francisco 49ers-1-114

2003Kansas City Chiefs-2½-115Ov48-110
2004San Francisco 49ers+2½-105
 
RBTrojan said:
If it were me, I would have bet the 200 on San Fran on the ML today at +130 or so... gives you 460 to bet on the SB if they get there. I would be shocked if the niners are not dogs to either cincy or kc. Even if the niners are +100 in the SB the parlay would pay 920 total for a +720 profit. I have no idea what the future lines are for the SB but niners could be a fg dog? So the comeback would be again +130 on the ML. In that scenario, 460 at +130 and the niners win would be a return of 1058 for +858.
Click to expand...
I Wish I Could Do Numbers Like You! I'm About A Level 5th Grade Math! HAHA
 
No worries @Vapster I am sorry I did not see your thread until last night. Obviously it is a moot point since you have already bet. That being said, You could just write down what the payoff would have been if you bet the niners are on the ML, the parlay it to the SB and compare the payoffs. You can still use the situation as a learning experience for future bets if a similar situation arises. For what it's worth, I lean towards Philly today. That means you are in good shape because if I lean philly that means san fran wins by DD... Good luck with your bets!
 
RBTrojan said:
No worries @Vapster I am sorry I did not see your thread until last night. Obviously it is a moot point since you have already bet. That being said, You could just write down what the payoff would have been if you bet the niners are on the ML, the parlay it to the SB and compare the payoffs. You can still use the situation as a learning experience for future bets if a similar situation arises. For what it's worth, I lean towards Philly today. That means you are in good shape because if I lean philly that means san fran wins by DD... Good luck with your bets!
Click to expand...
Thanks! I Can Do SOME Math. Like I Know What Tip On A Restaurant Bill Or How Much 30% Off Is On A Jacket I Like...Everything Else I'm Lost. Have A Good Day!
 
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