Looking for some feedback--Week 3 writeups

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Hello Gents,

Always appreciate this site, and I'm going to try to be a little more active this year. I'm working on my card, but I wanted to get a few thoughts down. Had a good week in week one(6-3), then took a couple of terrible beats in week 2 (Minnesota, Michigan St) to end up even for that week.

Boise St -16 @ UCONN: I've been skeptical of Boise and was against them in week one, but I think they are going to be a solid play when facing their usual competition. Super athletic teams like Ole Miss will give their offense problems, but they are going to bludgeon some of these lesser lights with the Grant Hedrick/Jay Ajayi/Matt Miller combo. 676 yards last week against CSU was a precursor, and I doubt UCONN will fare any better this week. The real reason to fade UCONN however is that they no longer have the somewhat competent Casey Cochrane at QB. Illini reject Chandler Whitmer goes in his place, and that usually means a lot of punts and turnovers. UCONN has no chance to run on Boise (see CSU's 23 rush 28 yard performance last week), so it will be up to Whitmer to move the ball through the air. Not a good scenario for the Huskies. Slight concern about the early east coast start for Boise, but if they play their game this one won't be close.
 
Indiana -7(buy it) @ Bowling Green: Believe it or not, I got this game at a pick when the lines came out on Sunday afternoon, but I'm still an advocate of laying a TD with the Hoosiers here. BG will probably continue to get better under 1st year coach Dino Babers (EIU last year) but I'm fading them here. Western Kentucky completely destroyed their defense in week one, and even VMI was able to top 400 yards against them last week. Since he's gotten to Bloomington, Kevin Wilson has fashioned some pretty good offenses. If you check the box scores, when IU goes up against teams with similar talent levels to them, they score, and BG has no shot of stopping them consistently on Saturday. Typically, IU's defense is nothing to write home about either, but in the game last year between these teams, even with Matt Johnson and the Clawfense, BG only managed 10 points and 4.7 yards per play. Rumors are that IU's D is much better, and with the backup and a new offense, we can assume BG's offense is worse too. Another road favorite, but I think IU wins this one going away.
 
@Ohio State -32 v Kent State: Kent State is an embarassment on offense. They've played two home games and they've yet to crack 300 yards of offense against either team. Their only offensive weapon, RB Trayion Durham is injured and probably won't play in this one. Ohio State is in desperate need of some good feelings after last week's loss to Va Tech, so they'll be looking to get the offense going, and by now, I would assume that JT Barrett will be making some strides with that offense. They'll probably only need to find 35 to cover this, and they'll probably get a couple scores on defense and special teams to boot.
 
Georgia Southern +18 @Georgia Tech: Willie Fritz and co should have beaten NC State on the road in week one, and then hung 83 points on some sad sack FCS school. A lot of the familiar names are gone from GT, so they are finding their way with new skill guys. Last week at Tulane they put up 38 points, but 21 of those were directly off TOs and they only had 359 total yards off offense. Defensively, they gave up 271 yards rushing against Wofford in week 1 and Tulane's rushing attack was 22-109 last week.. Offensively, GS is solid with QB Kevin Ellison, who might be the best player on the field and although the Savannah St contributes heavily, they do lead the nation in ypp by a country mile(9.29 ypp). This team is seasoned and experienced, having beaten Florida in the swamp last year as well. If GT is going to cover this number, their defense will have to be very effective while the offense gets the kinks worked out, and I doubt that'll happen, based on their pedigree.



 
Yup yup yup and yup. Our fates are tied so chsering for you even more thN normal. Bg was -3 at wynn. Smh. I laid 6 and expexct a 17 pt drubbing
 
Thanks, for the writeups.

I don't have a feel for any of those teams because except for Boise State I never bet any of them.

Your writeup on Indiana interests me though, and has me thinking about that one. I know Wilson is doing a sound job of rebuilding that team and I like your conclusions.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Georgia Southern +18 @Georgia Tech: Willie Fritz and co should have beaten NC State on the road in week one, and then hung 83 points on some sad sack FCS school. A lot of the familiar names are gone from GT, so they are finding their way with new skill guys. Last week at Tulane they put up 38 points, but 21 of those were directly off TOs and they only had 359 total yards off offense. Defensively, they gave up 271 yards rushing against Wofford in week 1 and Tulane's rushing attack was 22-109 last week.. Offensively, GS is solid with QB Kevin Ellison, who might be the best player on the field and although the Savannah St contributes heavily, they do lead the nation in ypp by a country mile(9.29 ypp). This team is seasoned and experienced, having beaten Florida in the swamp last year as well. If GT is going to cover this number, their defense will have to be very effective while the offense gets the kinks worked out, and I doubt that'll happen, based on their pedigree.



Click to expand...

I know nothing of Southern, but I was at Tulane game and GT didn't impress me much
 
clowncar said:
Yup yup yup and yup. Our fates are tied so chsering for you even more thN normal. Bg was -3 at wynn. Smh. I laid 6 and expexct a 17 pt drubbing
Click to expand...

Of course I am with you on Houston tonight...we'll see what happens there. We went over that in the best thread on the internet. The books quickly realized their mistakes on the BG/IN open. I was lucky I saw it when I did. It's still a steal though IMO.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Of course I am with you on Houston tonight...we'll see what happens there. We went over that in the best thread on the internet. The books quickly realized their mistakes on the BG/IN open. I was lucky I saw it when I did. It's still a steal though IMO.
Click to expand...

Thoughts on BYU TT? Think it's the best play. Worried about dual QB talk outta HOU
 
Canes1 said:
Thoughts on BYU TT? Think it's the best play. Worried about dual QB talk outta HOU
Click to expand...

Last I saw it was 38. Seems about right, maybe a bit on the high side. No play for me. Didn't hear about the dual QB talk....hope that doesn't happen and O'Korn gets a chance to settle in. Can't imagine they have an upgrade over him on their roster.
 
Am I the only one who can envision Boise coming out dead, being boring and winning 24-10 or so. I know BYU eventually got the job done but this one seems a lot like BYU UCONN to me
 
Thanks for reading Hound and Tahoe.

Tahoe-- The Indiana spread keeps climbing, but I really don't see a scenario in which they can stop Indiana.
 
Schrute said:
Am I the only one who can envision Boise coming out dead, being boring and winning 24-10 or so. I know BYU eventually got the job done but this one seems a lot like BYU UCONN to me
Click to expand...

Definitely a valid concern, especially with the early start, but Boise typically pours it on and this is a bad matchup for UCONN. UCONN has some athletes, but their offense has little chance of moving the ball. Even when they've stunk, they'd at least have a serviceable back like McCombs to grind out yards here and there, but they don't even have that anymore.
 
Most teams in Ohio State's situation come out flat. Kent is probably my favorite play of the week, although TAMU and Louisville also look really good.

Georgia Southern is also in a negative general situation, although the excitement of playing Tech may offset the general tendency.

Situations also favor Bowling Green. BGSU will probably be a play for me.
 
M.W. said:
Most teams in Ohio State's situation come out flat. Kent is probably my favorite play of the week, although TAMU and Louisville also look really good.

Georgia Southern is also in a negative general situation, although the excitement of playing Tech may offset the general tendency.

Situations also favor Bowling Green. BGSU will probably be a play for me.
Click to expand...

Well MW that doesn't do much for my confidence, especially considering this:

@Virginia +7(buy if necessary) v Louisville. The Cards make their maiden voyage on the road in the ACC in this one, and although I'll always give full respect to Bobby Petrino and his offensive acumen, I don't see the value in Louisville with this one. Virginia more than held their own in the opening week against UCLA, actually winning the battles on the line of scrimmage throughout the game. Louisville handled Miami, but didn't look particularly impressive while doing so. I've always been underwhelmed by Louisville QB Will Gardner during his time mopping up for Teddy Bridgewater. I'm sure Petrino has as well, as he is prone to turnovers and has limited skills. The turnover part is especially alarming, considering that UVA is coming off a game with Richmond in which they forced 7 Spider turnovers. (The total yardage numbers in that game were skewed as a result)Also keep in mind that Louisville is still without their top 2 offensive threats(Devante Parker, Michael Dyer), and the end result is that these two teams have very similar talent levels coming into the game. Given that, I'll take my chances with the home team catching a TD.
 
Pittsburgh -25.5 @Florida International: Poor Ron Turner can't ever seem to catch a break, but maybe it has something to do with the fact that he's not a very good coach anymore, and probably never was. Last year, his offense cracked 300 yards or more twice. This year, Hallelujah!...he was able to do it in game 2 against that football juggernaut Wagner, but only after being held to 186 total yards by another immortal squad, the Bethune Cookman Wildcats(I looked it up). Now Pitt comes in off a road win at Boston College in which they held the Eagles to 276 yards. The over under on total yards for FIU would have to be set at about 150, and I'm tiptoeing toward the under. On the flip side, Pitt's beast of a running back James Conner will probably have the FIU defense begging for mercy by the 2nd quarter. I'll be really surprised if FIU does anything other than embarrass themselves.
 
@South Florida +1.5 v Nc State: There are some trends that are iron clad chainsaw locks, but this one is the king of them all. Since 2002, Nc State is 0-14 as a road favorite. Obviously, it can be argued that Dave Doeren hasn't been around long enough to prove any trends correct, but he was favored on the road once last year, and he too shit the bed in that role, losing 28-13 as a TD favorite at Wake Forest. NC State is ranked 106th in FBS in defensive yards per play after playing 2 bona-fide heavyweights in Georgia Southern and Old Dominion, and they are unlikely to run effectively on an athletic USF front 7. I'll take my chances fading the Pack here, as my degenerate conscience would never allow me to pass on a game in this situation. Hopefully the Pack is still favored when it kicks off.
 
Really like that UVA play

Sets up well for them and if they can score 14 points I think they cover. It's not all that far fetched for them to win the game SU
 
Yep, nice thoughts on the games!

Indiana and Georgia Southern for me. Spreads have definitively moved against us though. BOL.
 
Half falling asleep as I write these, so please excuse the typos.

@South Carolina +7 v Georgia: now that a full TD can generally be found on this, I have to pull the trigger. Obviously, Georgia looked very good in week 1 at home against Clemson, holding what should end up being a pretty potent offense to only 15 yards the entire 2nd half. It was also the Todd Gurley show, as he unleashed the pain on Clemson repeatedly in the second half. Doing something like that to Clemson probably doesn't impress the Gamecocks much though, since they've used the Tigers as their personal roll of toilet paper over the past several years. Georgia actually played that role pretty well in their last trip to Williams Brice Stadium, when the Georgia team that eventually was one snap away from the MNC game assumed the fetal position and dropped a 35-7 laugher that wasn't even remotely that close. South Carolina has spent the first two weeks of the season getting ridiculed(the direct opposite of Georgia), mostly due to the huge amount of yards they've given up on defense in the first two games. Having said that, if A&M had been on Georgia's schedule rather than South Carolina, we'd have a whole different outlook. South Carolina's primary issue has been stopping uptempo passing attacks, but that's not Georgia's strength. QB Hutson Mason's ok, but he only accounted for 131 yards on 18 completions in their game with Clemson, and he faces a much tougher venue here. South Carolina has also looked surprisingly good offensively and should be comfortable at home. Motivation is rampant for USC as their season is still right in front of them if they pull this off, the spot is good and Spurier has owned Richt over the years. I'll definitely take the TD, and I think despite how good Georgia has looked, the Cocks have a good shot at the outright.
 
Schrute----Thanks..UVA just needs to avoid turnovers IMO.

JUMP, Twink, GoIrish Hammer and HAMMER: :shake:
 
@Washington -13 v Illinois: I generally like the direction the Illini are going in as a program, but i don't know if they're ready to compete in this scenario. In the first two games against defensive stalwarts Youngstown State and Western Kentucky, they accounted for 2.49 yards per carry. Their offensive line, thought in the preseason to perhaps be a strength, hasn't been able to bust a grape this year so far. This line has dropped from the original open due to Washington's struggles in the first two weeks, but they were without their QB in week 1 @ Hawaii, and they were lit up in their glorified walk through vs Eastern Washington, who is actually a very strong FCS program. The Illini, in addition to not being able to run, also can't stop the run, much like last year when Washington romped and stomped their way to 600+ total yards(282 of them on the ground). The Illini can throw, but Washington will be ready for it, and they'll being a ton of pressure. So far, they have done well against the run and have sacked the QB 9 times already, good for 6th in the country. The Illini appear to be at risk of being manhandled on both sides of the line. Washington will run at will while Illini bright spot Wes Lunt runs for his life from that Huskie pass rush. It's a very tough road trip all the way out there, and this might be one of the most severe head coaching mismatches(Chris Petersen v Tim Beckman) possible in today's FBS. Also keep in mind that under Beckman, Illinois is 1-9 ATS in road games
 
UTSA +14(buy) @ Oklahoma St: Shame on me for fading Mike Gundy, but this has some value. The discrepancy in returning starters is immense in this one, as UTSA has about everyone back from last year while Okie State has almost no one back, including starting QB JW Walsh, who apparently broke his foot. True Freshman Daxx Garman will take over for him. He's highly regarded, but with any true freshman, it's a crapshoot, especially when facing a defense that has proven that they can play with some salty offenses. Okie State looked good in week 1, but FSU was disinterested, something OSU might be this week. UTSA will need to find some road offense, but if they do, they have a decent shot of winning the game outright.
 
Kentucky +18.5 @Florida: If Kentucky's defense has a chance to be anything resembling the outfit that dominated Ohio last week, they have a shot to cover this. We all know that Florida is better off with Jeff Driskill at QB, but even against EMU, he wasn't trusted to go downfield, as he completed 31 passes for only 245 yards. I think the chances are pretty good that Florida looks very pedestrian on offense, and if Kentucky can get some semblance of an offense going, it's likely that the game will be closer than it's been in recent years. I'm just not a believer in this Florida offense, and it'll take more than a blitzkrieg of Eastern Michigan to make me one.
 
@Oklahoma -21 v Tennessee: It's been a nice little start for Butch Jones and his youngsters, but the early euphoria about the Vols is likely to wear off. First, OU's defense is among the toughest in FBS, with All Americans in every level of the defense. Tennessee is extremely young in all areas, and they have 14 true freshmen in the two deep. So that means for many of these guys their first road trip will be to one of the most intimidating venues in America.I foresee no offensive success at all for the Vols, and they'll have little hope of keeping the Sooners off the scoreboard. Throw in Bob Stoops well publicized desire to stick it to the SEC whenever he can, and you've got a recipe for disaster at least in the short term for Tennessee.
 
@Texas A&M -31 v Rice: Rice's defense is God -Awful...A&M will name the score in this one. Rice's secondary can't cover a soul, and if the ND game is any indication, they can't tackle either. Also, offensively,this Rice squad does not live up to the David Bailiff squads of the past couple of year...call me unconvinced on the quarterbacking prowess of the great Driphus Jackson. A&M is improving rapidly on defense as the high level recruits start flowing in to College Station. I also doubt that Sumlin will have much interest in calling off the dogs, as running up the score will only help in the eyes of the committee, and they'll need style points because they are only 1 of 5 top 10 teams in the SEC West.
 
Arizona State -15 @Colorado: The only good thing about Colorado over the past couple of years was their former receiver Paul Richardson, probably the fastest guy in the country, but in the words of the immortal Hawk Harrelson, "He gone." Last week Colorado played the Massachusetts Minutemen to a standstill for 4 quarters. UMass is one of the 3-5 worst teams in the country. (Note: they are getting 16 points from VANDY this week, and it's stillnot enough for me to bet them...that's how bad UMass is)The Buffs were bludgeoned by Colorado State the run game in Week 1 and then gave up 38 points to UMass. On offense, they have no playmakers, and their QB is something called Sefo Liufau .Arizona State has a 3rd year of Taylor Kelly on tap, so they'll be plenty potent offensively, and more than the Buffs can handle.
 
Br@ssknux said:
@South Florida +1.5 v Nc State: There are some trends that are iron clad chainsaw locks, but this one is the king of them all. Since 2002, Nc State is 0-14 as a road favorite. Obviously, it can be argued that Dave Doeren hasn't been around long enough to prove any trends correct, but he was favored on the road once last year, and he too shit the bed in that role, losing 28-13 as a TD favorite at Wake Forest. NC State is ranked 106th in FBS in defensive yards per play after playing 2 bona-fide heavyweights in Georgia Southern and Old Dominion, and they are unlikely to run effectively on an athletic USF front 7. I'll take my chances fading the Pack here, as my degenerate conscience would never allow me to pass on a game in this situation. Hopefully the Pack is still favored when it kicks off.
Click to expand...

From what I've noticed, NC State has played terrible in the first half. They seem to play better after halftime. Their defense is not very good and it doesn't look like Doeren has his system clicking there, yet.
 
Daveniner...it ended up being the second and third quarter for NC State. At least now that they got off the road favorite scneid, I won't have to bet on scrub teams like USF on principal anymore. They made 1 play of note all game...a lucky 75 yard TD pass early. Other than that play, they totalled 84 total yards. Mike White went 3-15 for 7 yards. I guess when you're facing a team that pathetic, you're going to break any unfortunate streak you're on.

As always, thanks for the kind words BAR
 
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