Alright,
The NBA season is just about ready to start and this is like the Holidays for some of us. The NBA was my first love all the way back in 1987-1988 or so and I have followed it ever since. It is a bit different to me the last 10 years with less of an emotional local attachment but nothing can be as intriguing as the NBA. The changes in the scheduling over the last several years have made me change my methods to where I went from mostly situational betting to mostly live betting. One thing we always say, you have to adjust on the fly and there is never such a truer phase than NBA LIVE BETTING!
One thing we talked about the last several months is to try and get more Live-betting discussion around the site to both help ourselves and the members. There are several proficient cappers here in this area and just engaging with them and picking their brains is invaluable. I don't want anyone telling you that you cannot win gambling this way because they are simply wrong or the 'get off my lawn' types who refuse to hear anything else.
What I am going to do here is get this started by going over how I personally set up a night of live-betting and also one of my favorite situations to look before. Please note, everything is ever-evolving. In fact, each season in the last 2.5 I have had to evolve at certain junctures...
Be PREPARED:
-Have all your sides and totals written down before all the games start. Update these for later starts
-Know your injuries. This year will be nice because they are required to turn in the lists earlier than in years past
-Write down any notes you may need as the games go
-As the season goes, know paces and tendencies
-If you know rotations, this is big in some instances
-Know when your books start/stop etc Live betting for halves and games
Here are my main focuses when Live Betting:
-Totals for the most part
-Underdog ML's
-Trading ML's
-Middling
So, this thread will keep going for awhile. Everyone has their own ways to do live-betting. Once @HUNT gets in here he'll go into quarters more. He loves him some quarters and he is damn good at them. My strength is full game totals and shockingly enough I love middles. I hope we get a few people in here to discuss theories etc and make this a great thread. Ask questions... before I get this out to an open forum I will go over two things...
Rotations:
Some coaches are very stringent with their rotations. My favorite two examples are Stotts and Donovan. I knew when Raymond Felton and the crew would be in for OKC at all times. If it was a high-scoring 1st quarter or a high-scoring game in general by end of 3rd, time to pop the under... then you can come back Over for the middle if need be. I've used this for trading ML's a few times as well. That is riskier though, obviously.
Large variances:
Lets think about it, the oddsmakers(human and computers) are pretty good. So, in a game I expect that they are not going to be way off on a total. Now, when it comes to betting totals I do it in so many forms but my favorite and the one I will allocate the most unit to is the large variances. I'll give you an example...I am using just base numbers for this exercise. I adjust my up n down for certain teams and match-ups.
Washington @ Atlanta Total = 219.5
-I will look for a 25 point variance in the Live total.
-At 4:53 left 2nd quarter the total is now set at 193.
-This is a variance of 26.5
-I fire on this
-Now, this will be a low-scoring game but I am confident that the scoring will pick up.
-This also gives me options...
1.) Keep it and cash
2.) Eventually try to middle all or some
3.) Play bigger if it dips down more
This isn't going to cash each time, but the probability is much higher than betting a game from the tip.
Again, this is ever evolving... you have to adjust to each new season, etc.
So, we'll open this up now for further discussion. I'm looking forward to the thread...
The NBA season is just about ready to start and this is like the Holidays for some of us. The NBA was my first love all the way back in 1987-1988 or so and I have followed it ever since. It is a bit different to me the last 10 years with less of an emotional local attachment but nothing can be as intriguing as the NBA. The changes in the scheduling over the last several years have made me change my methods to where I went from mostly situational betting to mostly live betting. One thing we always say, you have to adjust on the fly and there is never such a truer phase than NBA LIVE BETTING!
One thing we talked about the last several months is to try and get more Live-betting discussion around the site to both help ourselves and the members. There are several proficient cappers here in this area and just engaging with them and picking their brains is invaluable. I don't want anyone telling you that you cannot win gambling this way because they are simply wrong or the 'get off my lawn' types who refuse to hear anything else.
What I am going to do here is get this started by going over how I personally set up a night of live-betting and also one of my favorite situations to look before. Please note, everything is ever-evolving. In fact, each season in the last 2.5 I have had to evolve at certain junctures...
Be PREPARED:
-Have all your sides and totals written down before all the games start. Update these for later starts
-Know your injuries. This year will be nice because they are required to turn in the lists earlier than in years past
-Write down any notes you may need as the games go
-As the season goes, know paces and tendencies
-If you know rotations, this is big in some instances
-Know when your books start/stop etc Live betting for halves and games
Here are my main focuses when Live Betting:
-Totals for the most part
-Underdog ML's
-Trading ML's
-Middling
So, this thread will keep going for awhile. Everyone has their own ways to do live-betting. Once @HUNT gets in here he'll go into quarters more. He loves him some quarters and he is damn good at them. My strength is full game totals and shockingly enough I love middles. I hope we get a few people in here to discuss theories etc and make this a great thread. Ask questions... before I get this out to an open forum I will go over two things...
Rotations:
Some coaches are very stringent with their rotations. My favorite two examples are Stotts and Donovan. I knew when Raymond Felton and the crew would be in for OKC at all times. If it was a high-scoring 1st quarter or a high-scoring game in general by end of 3rd, time to pop the under... then you can come back Over for the middle if need be. I've used this for trading ML's a few times as well. That is riskier though, obviously.
Large variances:
Lets think about it, the oddsmakers(human and computers) are pretty good. So, in a game I expect that they are not going to be way off on a total. Now, when it comes to betting totals I do it in so many forms but my favorite and the one I will allocate the most unit to is the large variances. I'll give you an example...I am using just base numbers for this exercise. I adjust my up n down for certain teams and match-ups.
Washington @ Atlanta Total = 219.5
-I will look for a 25 point variance in the Live total.
-At 4:53 left 2nd quarter the total is now set at 193.
-This is a variance of 26.5
-I fire on this
-Now, this will be a low-scoring game but I am confident that the scoring will pick up.
-This also gives me options...
1.) Keep it and cash
2.) Eventually try to middle all or some
3.) Play bigger if it dips down more
This isn't going to cash each time, but the probability is much higher than betting a game from the tip.
Again, this is ever evolving... you have to adjust to each new season, etc.
So, we'll open this up now for further discussion. I'm looking forward to the thread...