Lions vs. Packers: NFL Week 2 Picks & Game Predictions
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field in Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers
Entering this season, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been cast as a has-been or, at the very least, as somebody who used to be elite.
In Week 1, Rodgers tried to dispel doubts by throwing for 364 yards and four touchdowns.
It’s crucial to note the following: according to PFF, he was 26-of-31 with a 126.1 passer rating when attempting passes within 2.5 seconds.
Largely, Rodgers was able to be successful because his wide receivers were able to achieve quick separation.
His receivers — Davante Adams, like always, as well as Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard — helped him tremendously by getting open, which they had an easy time doing against Minnesota’s decimated secondary.
During the offseason, the Vikings lost their three top cornerbacks. In their place, Viking cornerbacks entered last Sunday’s contest with a combined total of nine NFL starts.
These details about Minnesota’s corners are relevant because they resist the legitimacy of praise being accorded to Rodgers.
Detroit’s Secondary
But also, whether Rodgers has truly re-obtained (or never lost?) his elite status is an irrelevant question right now because it won’t be answered on Sunday.
Detroit’s top cornerbacks — Justin Coleman, Desmond Trufant, and Jeff Okudah — all left or missed Sunday’s game with hamstring problems.
Coleman’s absence will be week-long. Okudah, the third pick of the NFL Draft, is back in practice.
However, Trufant still isn’t practicing — hamstring injuries are notoriously pesky -- and backup cornerback Daryl Roberts also remains out of practice with a calf injury.
Their absence is crucial. When Detroit’s top three cornerbacks were playing, through three quarters, Chicago’s dud of a quarterback Mitchell Trubisky was 12-of-26 for 153 yards.
In the fourth quarter, when those three corners were out of the game, Trubisky was 8-of-10 for 89 yards and three touchdowns.
These injury concerns have, clearly for good reason, motivated Detroit to work out four new cornerbacks this week.
This first- and second-half statistical disparity is, it must be said, a bit misleading because Chicago’s wide receivers were open plenty of the time before the fourth quarter, i.e., against Detroit’s top corners. Trubisky simply couldn’t hit them.
So even if Trufant recovers, Detroit’s secondary is going to have a tougher test with Rodgers and his pass-catching crew even beyond Adams.
Lions Defensive Line
Beyond Trey Flowers, the Lions’ defensive line struggled to show any improvement from last year.
Similar to last year, Football Outsider metrics measured the Lions’ defensive line after its effort against Chicago as bottom-five both against opposing run-blockers and against opposing pass-blockers.
This continuity in low quality should not seem too surprising given the losses that the Lions suffered during the offseason in the interior of their defensive line.
Detroit’s defensive interior misses Damon Harrison who had made an immediate, positive impact as soon as he had arrived in the Motor City, and A’Shawn Robinson.
Besides Flowers, there doesn’t seem to be any Lion who can make his presence felt.
This weakness is decisive because Green Bay’s offensive line is reeling and, as such, constitutes a potential achilles heel that the Lions lack the personnel to support.
Matt Stafford
Lion quarterback Matt Stafford’s statistics in Week 1 are deflated in that they are partly a product of a very conservative fourth-quarter game plan in which he attempted short throw after short throw after short throw.
Many want to cite the absence of Kenny Golladay. While his presence would obviously be useful, it’s really not needed especially this Sunday.
The Lions have a deep receiving corps. Last season, they were the only team to have at least three receivers to accumulate at least 60 receptions plus 675 receiving yards.
Those two other receivers — besides Golladay — are Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola. Jones, in particular, is a deep threat with his 4.4-ish speed and size at 6-2.
Former first-rounder TJ Hockenson also made a positive impression against Chicago after catching all five of his targets for 56 yards.
Like last year, the Packers remain one of the worse teams in keeping the ball out of the hands of opposing tight ends as measured by targets caught.
Green Bay Secondary
These receivers — with or without Golladay — will have a significantly easier time against a Green Bay secondary that looks vulnerable especially beyond Jaire Alexander.
Despite missing his top receiver, former teammate Stefon Diggs, Viking quarterback Kirk Cousins completed 76 percent of his passes in the Week 1 opener.
Whereas Detroit’s receiving corps is deep in quality, Green Bay’s secondary is thin.
Trends
Dating to last season, the Lions have lost 10 games in a row.
Meanwhile, Green Bay has won six in a row at home dating to last season.
The Verdict
We’ll see some fireworks with Detroit’s deep receiving corps exploiting the Packers’ thin secondary.
Despite following a conservative fourth quarter game plan, Stafford ranked seventh in Week 1 in terms of average intended air yards.
So Stafford is not afraid to let it fly — even against the Bears’ defense.
He’s aided by a three-headed monster at running back, which the rejuvenated Adrian Peterson led in Week 1 while playing for the man who drafted him in 2007.
Rodgers, too, has an advantage against Detroit’s possibly too beleaguered, but in any case still hapless secondary that will have to confront the elite Davante Adams plus other increasingly respectable pass-catchers.
Like Detroit’s, Green Bay’s ground game is even more loaded thanks to a high draft pick. Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and A.J. Dillon will keep the Lions’ defense honest.
For the above reasons, expect the Packers to win and expect both offenses to take this game „over“ the posted total.
Because I like Detroit’s offense, I would rather parlay Green Bay on the money-line — which is a play supported by two strong trends — with the „over.“
Best Bet: Parlay: Packers ML at -260 with BetOnline & Over 49.5 at -110 with BetOnline at +164 with BetOnline
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field in Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers
Entering this season, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been cast as a has-been or, at the very least, as somebody who used to be elite.
In Week 1, Rodgers tried to dispel doubts by throwing for 364 yards and four touchdowns.
It’s crucial to note the following: according to PFF, he was 26-of-31 with a 126.1 passer rating when attempting passes within 2.5 seconds.
Largely, Rodgers was able to be successful because his wide receivers were able to achieve quick separation.
His receivers — Davante Adams, like always, as well as Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard — helped him tremendously by getting open, which they had an easy time doing against Minnesota’s decimated secondary.
During the offseason, the Vikings lost their three top cornerbacks. In their place, Viking cornerbacks entered last Sunday’s contest with a combined total of nine NFL starts.
These details about Minnesota’s corners are relevant because they resist the legitimacy of praise being accorded to Rodgers.
Detroit’s Secondary
But also, whether Rodgers has truly re-obtained (or never lost?) his elite status is an irrelevant question right now because it won’t be answered on Sunday.
Detroit’s top cornerbacks — Justin Coleman, Desmond Trufant, and Jeff Okudah — all left or missed Sunday’s game with hamstring problems.
Coleman’s absence will be week-long. Okudah, the third pick of the NFL Draft, is back in practice.
However, Trufant still isn’t practicing — hamstring injuries are notoriously pesky -- and backup cornerback Daryl Roberts also remains out of practice with a calf injury.
Their absence is crucial. When Detroit’s top three cornerbacks were playing, through three quarters, Chicago’s dud of a quarterback Mitchell Trubisky was 12-of-26 for 153 yards.
In the fourth quarter, when those three corners were out of the game, Trubisky was 8-of-10 for 89 yards and three touchdowns.
These injury concerns have, clearly for good reason, motivated Detroit to work out four new cornerbacks this week.
This first- and second-half statistical disparity is, it must be said, a bit misleading because Chicago’s wide receivers were open plenty of the time before the fourth quarter, i.e., against Detroit’s top corners. Trubisky simply couldn’t hit them.
So even if Trufant recovers, Detroit’s secondary is going to have a tougher test with Rodgers and his pass-catching crew even beyond Adams.
Lions Defensive Line
Beyond Trey Flowers, the Lions’ defensive line struggled to show any improvement from last year.
Similar to last year, Football Outsider metrics measured the Lions’ defensive line after its effort against Chicago as bottom-five both against opposing run-blockers and against opposing pass-blockers.
This continuity in low quality should not seem too surprising given the losses that the Lions suffered during the offseason in the interior of their defensive line.
Detroit’s defensive interior misses Damon Harrison who had made an immediate, positive impact as soon as he had arrived in the Motor City, and A’Shawn Robinson.
Besides Flowers, there doesn’t seem to be any Lion who can make his presence felt.
This weakness is decisive because Green Bay’s offensive line is reeling and, as such, constitutes a potential achilles heel that the Lions lack the personnel to support.
Matt Stafford
Lion quarterback Matt Stafford’s statistics in Week 1 are deflated in that they are partly a product of a very conservative fourth-quarter game plan in which he attempted short throw after short throw after short throw.
Many want to cite the absence of Kenny Golladay. While his presence would obviously be useful, it’s really not needed especially this Sunday.
The Lions have a deep receiving corps. Last season, they were the only team to have at least three receivers to accumulate at least 60 receptions plus 675 receiving yards.
Those two other receivers — besides Golladay — are Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola. Jones, in particular, is a deep threat with his 4.4-ish speed and size at 6-2.
Former first-rounder TJ Hockenson also made a positive impression against Chicago after catching all five of his targets for 56 yards.
Like last year, the Packers remain one of the worse teams in keeping the ball out of the hands of opposing tight ends as measured by targets caught.
Green Bay Secondary
These receivers — with or without Golladay — will have a significantly easier time against a Green Bay secondary that looks vulnerable especially beyond Jaire Alexander.
Despite missing his top receiver, former teammate Stefon Diggs, Viking quarterback Kirk Cousins completed 76 percent of his passes in the Week 1 opener.
Whereas Detroit’s receiving corps is deep in quality, Green Bay’s secondary is thin.
Trends
Dating to last season, the Lions have lost 10 games in a row.
Meanwhile, Green Bay has won six in a row at home dating to last season.
The Verdict
We’ll see some fireworks with Detroit’s deep receiving corps exploiting the Packers’ thin secondary.
Despite following a conservative fourth quarter game plan, Stafford ranked seventh in Week 1 in terms of average intended air yards.
So Stafford is not afraid to let it fly — even against the Bears’ defense.
He’s aided by a three-headed monster at running back, which the rejuvenated Adrian Peterson led in Week 1 while playing for the man who drafted him in 2007.
Rodgers, too, has an advantage against Detroit’s possibly too beleaguered, but in any case still hapless secondary that will have to confront the elite Davante Adams plus other increasingly respectable pass-catchers.
Like Detroit’s, Green Bay’s ground game is even more loaded thanks to a high draft pick. Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and A.J. Dillon will keep the Lions’ defense honest.
For the above reasons, expect the Packers to win and expect both offenses to take this game „over“ the posted total.
Because I like Detroit’s offense, I would rather parlay Green Bay on the money-line — which is a play supported by two strong trends — with the „over.“
Best Bet: Parlay: Packers ML at -260 with BetOnline & Over 49.5 at -110 with BetOnline at +164 with BetOnline
