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Lions ML MNF

Hulu said:
Oh sorry I misunderstood.

Any time you have a parlay where the last leg is heavily influenced by the first leg its correlated. You could wait until GB wins to bet Detroit but you can be sure that the Lions won't be available at -180 if that happens. By parlaying it now, you are essentially getting ahead of the number. That's why Pinny won't allow it. Many other books will though.

I'm sure there's a better way to explain this mathematically but I'm not the guy for that.
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I just did this and others have posted ways here…
 
KJ said:
So the Eagles can't win out and get the bye if Detroit loses the next two games? I'm lost on this stuff.
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Detroit owns the tiebreaker if they both finish with same record. Better conference record.
 
Just wanted to add Dan Campbell goes 100% in practices in pads. Every week. That's part of his culture. This is the same guy who also won't pull Jared Goff or starters up 30 late in a game. Unless there's 5-6 minutes left.
 
HUNT said:
Detroit owns the tiebreaker if they both finish with same record. Better conference record.
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Point is Detroit still needs to win tomorrow

If the Packers win tonight and Detroit loses out (obviously to Minny next week), and Philly wins next week they have the tiebreaker against Minny due to their win against the Rams.

So anyone who says tomorrow night would be a meaningless game isn't correct.
 
Green Bay wins this game, lions will put on a show. That's my prediction. Vikings win, they'll play a little tighter.
 
KJ said:
Point is Detroit still needs to win tomorrow

If the Packers win tonight and Detroit loses out (obviously to Minny next week), and Philly wins next week they have the tiebreaker against Minny due to their win against the Rams.

So anyone who says tomorrow night would be a meaningless game isn't correct.
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Yes, correct. Detroit could end with 4 losses possibly. The only game they can really take off is next week if they win tomorrow and packers win tonight...and they won't even do that, they do not want to be co champions of division.
 
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HUNT said:
Yes, correct. Detroit could end with 4 losses possibly. The only game they can really take off is next week if they win tomorrow and packers win tonight...and they won't even do that, they do not want to be co champions of division.
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Took way more research than I like to do but after everyone was saying it would be a meaningless game tomorrow night, rest the starters, blah blah it didn't sound right. Everyone so focused on the division that it seems they didn't realize that the Lions still need to win to lock up the #1 even if GB wins tonight.
 
KJ said:
Took way more research than I like to do but after everyone was saying it would be a meaningless game tomorrow night, rest the starters, blah blah it didn't sound right. Everyone so focused on the division that it seems they didn't realize that the Lions still need to win to lock up the #1 even if GB wins tonight.
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It is confusing for sure. Thanks for pointing it out though and being 100%.
 
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Basically if Detroit wins tomorrow, Vikings lose tonight it's all over as far as the number 1 seed and securing the bye for playoffs. But there's no way Campbell rests anyone next week either if they win tomorrow. He's not built like that, they'll want that division outright.
 
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HUNT said:
It is confusing for sure. Thanks for pointing it out though and being 100%.
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It's a pretty big deal when laying that much chalk on a ML just in case...I get all the intangibles but knowing the outcome actually matters is more relevant than the rest of it for me as much as I love situations
 
wiseplayer said:
I think what I heard was it eliminates the Vikings-Lions matchup being meaningful in week 18. Was listening to Francesa.
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If the Lions lose tomorrow they would still have to beat the Vikings next week to get the #1 seed if Philly wins. It wouldn't be relevant for the division but that bye would still be up for grabs.
 
KJ said:
If the Lions lose tomorrow they would still have to beat the Vikings next week to get the #1 seed if Philly wins. It wouldn't be relevant for the division but that bye would still be up for grabs.
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Correct.
 
KJ said:
It's a pretty big deal when laying that much chalk on a ML just in case...I get all the intangibles but knowing the outcome actually matters is more relevant than the rest of it for me as much as I love situations
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Right, that's why I wasn't really understanding why Campbell would sit anyone. Glad we got that corrected. Appreciate it.

Playoff scenarios make my head explode and I was pretty sure I went over it a million times before hand but it's easy to question your own sanity when it comes to this stuff.
 
HUNT said:
Just wanted to add Dan Campbell goes 100% in practices in pads. Every week. That's part of his culture. This is the same guy who also won't pull Jared Goff or starters up 30 late in a game. Unless there's 5-6 minutes left.
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You let me know when that strategy wins his team a SB.
 
Loves2kickass said:
If a 1 game, revenge game from last season is more important than maybe trying to get a little more healthy than that coach doesn't have the season's top priority in mind. Just my opinion.
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There is nothing about tomorrow they will help the injuries they have incurred prior to this.

The season is 17 games. You are paid for 17. I honestly want players out there for all 17.

We are ASSUMING that he plays starters all game. That's just how we see it. Look at week 18 two seasons ago. That's how you build a culture.

I want guys sharp for next week. The loser of that game I feel may not even make it past the WC game (unless Atlanta is the opponent).

This game next Sunday is wildly huge.

Hopefully they race out and can then rest guys.
 
KJ said:
Took way more research than I like to do but after everyone was saying it would be a meaningless game tomorrow night, rest the starters, blah blah it didn't sound right. Everyone so focused on the division that it seems they didn't realize that the Lions still need to win to lock up the #1 even if GB wins tonight.
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Now that GB lost, tomorrow night has no meaning once again.

Imagine that before the season?
 
Early in the week some media put that out that MNF didn't matter. That was corrected by Christmas Day..
 
B.A.R. said:
There is nothing about tomorrow they will help the injuries they have incurred prior to this.

The season is 17 games. You are paid for 17. I honestly want players out there for all 17.

We are ASSUMING that he plays starters all game. That's just how we see it. Look at week 18 two seasons ago. That's how you build a culture.

I want guys sharp for next week. The loser of that game I feel may not even make it past the WC game (unless Atlanta is the opponent).

This game next Sunday is wildly huge.

Hopefully they race out and can then rest guys.
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I don't even think it's a question for people that follow the Lions but I can understand it being a question for anyone who doesn't follow them religiously.
 
B.A.R. said:
There is nothing about tomorrow they will help the injuries they have incurred prior to this.

The season is 17 games. You are paid for 17. I honestly want players out there for all 17.

We are ASSUMING that he plays starters all game. That's just how we see it. Look at week 18 two seasons ago. That's how you build a culture.

I want guys sharp for next week. The loser of that game I feel may not even make it past the WC game (unless Atlanta is the opponent).

This game next Sunday is wildly huge.

Hopefully they race out and can then rest guys.
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Actually the season is 20-21 games. It's Championship or bust.
 
I can’t get over the fact Detroit players give it 100% now with Minn winning - pointless game Monday night and all goes to the last game with Minny - Line sitting at 3.5 and never got taken off the board during Minn game when they were up DD

GL Hunt!!! Gonna be cheering for Lions
 
wizardofodd said:
I can’t get over the fact Detroit players give it 100% now with Minn winning - pointless game Monday night and all goes to the last game with Minny - Line sitting at 3.5 and never got taken off the board during Minn game when they were up DD

GL Hunt!!! Gonna be cheering for Lions
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That's how we roll in Detroit. Every day, all day. Gl bro
 
wizardofodd said:
I can’t get over the fact Detroit players give it 100% now with Minn winning - pointless game Monday night and all goes to the last game with Minny - Line sitting at 3.5 and never got taken off the board during Minn game when they were up DD

GL Hunt!!! Gonna be cheering for Lions
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Lions fans hold your breathe in this game.
 
HUNT said:
Sure am.
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giphy.gif
 
HUNT said:
Biggest pre game regular season bet in my career.

No live bets in this one, this is the only bet.

If you like it, follow with me.

If you don't, good luck.

Lions ML -180

50/27.7

Forecast looks good. No wind. No rain.

Happy Holidays.
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@HUNT I cannot quite grasp this bold prediction. (I have Lions to finish 2 ML parlays).

Why would Campbell start and play everyone when this game does not matter? He has to rest some players.

I know you have factored all this in. Are you confident that (a) Campbell will play the starters or (b) thinkjing the back-ups can beat niners?

Admire your faith
 
bones said:
@HUNT I cannot quite grasp this bold prediction. (I have Lions to finish 2 ML parlays).

Why would Campbell start and play everyone when this game does not matter? He has to rest some players.

I know you have factored all this in. Are you confident that (a) Campbell will play the starters or (b) thinkjing the back-ups can beat niners?

Admire your faith
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Hi bones, Happy Holidays brother. Dan Campbell will not rest his players because the worst loss of his career was last year's NFC championship. He talks about it often as a learning experience. It was a painful game for the Lions, they knew they gave that game away.

There were 3 red panty games besides division rivals this year for Dan Campbell. Dallas, Seattle, and the Niners.

Those losses last year he wanted to avenge before the season even started. Even if it wasn't a red panty game, he wouldn't rest his starters. But the fact it is a red panty game he's gonna go all the fuck out.
 
bones said:
@HUNT I cannot quite grasp this bold prediction. (I have Lions to finish 2 ML parlays).

Why would Campbell start and play everyone when this game does not matter? He has to rest some players.

I know you have factored all this in. Are you confident that (a) Campbell will play the starters or (b) thinkjing the back-ups can beat niners?

Admire your faith
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I don't think I answered all of your question, sorry. If the backups play I take my L like a man and will be the dumbass of the year.
 
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