Line Movement Plays 11/17-11/23

E

Eric8923

Pretty much a regular
I will make this a weekly thread. All plays posted ITT outside of CBB, will be one unit plays by me. I update the OP daily to keep track of all plays and win/loss record.

Last Week:
NBA:17-7
NFL/CFB:17-12
Total:34-19
Win Percentage:64.150%
34-19 record probability: 01.321%

This Week:
NBA: 4-12
NFL: 6-0
CFB: 12-7
NHL:1-1
Total: 23-20
Win Percentage: 53.488%


11/17:
DAL/CHA over 199 1/2 Loss
Magic +4 Win
Pelicans +3 Loss

11/18
Ohio +3 Loss
Atlanta -9 1/2 Loss
OKC +3 Loss

11/19
Cavs -2 Loss
Lakers +12 Win
Orlando +5 Loss
Phx/Det under 204 Win
Mil/Bkn over 198 Win

11/20
Oakland +7 Win
UNC +5 1/2 Win
KSU/WVU under 58 1/2 Win
Tex St/Ark St under 58 1/2 Loss
Miami +4 Loss

11/21
SDSU -6 Win
UTEP/Rice under 50 Win
Boston +6 1/2 Loss
Det/Atl over 197 1/2 Loss
OKC -1 Loss
DAL/LAL under 216 Loss
New York Islanders ML Win
Columbus Blue JacketsML Loss

11/22
VT/WF under 38 1/2 Win
USA(South Alabama) +24 Loss
Rutgers +22 Loss
Minn/Neb under 55 1/2 Win
Kan/OU under 54 1/2 Win
Syracuse +7 Loss
Penn St/Ill over 45 1/2 Loss
Old Dominion +12 Win
Tulsa/Houston over 56 1/2 Win
Louisville +3 Win
Org St/Washington under 53 1/2 Win
Cincy/Uconn over 55 1/2 Loss
UNLV +10 Win
Utah +2 1/2 Loss

11/23
Browns +3 Win
Det/NE under 47 Win
Min +8 Win
Miami + 6 1/2
Tampa/Chicago under 46 Win
 
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Magic +4
Pelicans +3
Dal/Char over 199 1/2



Edit: Had the Dallas over at 192 in a teaser as well. The single play is over 199 1/2.
 
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YoungGun, where were you watching the NHL line? It's hard to read on pregame. I checked scoresandodds, and it looks like TB would be a play. Being from Texas I don't watch hockey. So I don't know much about the teams.
 
ERi, I am at work right now and unable to get on my sites. I will post them later.

I chickened out on Florida over Anaheim yesterday. 96% on Anaheim and line remaind at -200. They lose 6-1, I know not a lot of money is wagered on hockey, but anytime Vegas takes 96% of the wagers at -200 juice it is a good damn day.
 
New Orleans under 203 is a play as well 89% on the over and it has gone down from 204 opening line.

NHL tonight
the play wasn't strong enough but it favored Tampa and the under. The under was juiced -110 all the way to -125 even though 69% on the over. 76% on Rangers and it remained at -110
 
NCCAM Late game post sorry Eri if you don't want me posting in your thread.

79% on Oregon/Detroit over. Opened at 152.5 and is 150.5 in some spots, line has never gone up only down or stay the same.
 
Hilarious. I completely jynxed that game. Wow. The Pelicans were outscored 33-13 in the 4th quarter. How is that possible?
 
0-3 tailing today. I'm beyond pissed right now. Atlanta better get it together. I will NOT be ok with losing 5 of 6 or worse today.


Edit: I was so pissed, I put that I would be ok with losing 5 plays today. Fvck that. Atlanta better get it together.
 
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This isn't the same LAL I've been watching this year, Kobe has put up numbers but it doesn't seem like he's controlling the ball very often. Boozer can't miss and Millsap/Teague are the only 2 ATL players worth a damn right now
 
I agree. ATL is playing lazy defense though. Not really contesting shots.

I am swinging for the fences. 5 units on 2H ATL -9.
 
Also, as a Thunder fan. I have always hated Sefolosha. You can hardly count on him to make a basket, much less be a regular part of an offense. Glad he is gone.
 
Yup. Thanks for the pep talk man. I was fuming. I'm not betting CBB for another week though. Atlanta making a nice push. We're still in this.
 
If you haven't been betting long research the Kelly criterion, it's helped a lot with my money management and unit sizes. Takes my judgement out of the process haha.
 
I cover the 2H bet by one point. I completely feel sick. I'll never do that again. Slowed the bleeding though. OKC looking good.
 
Thanks Fondy. I should have tailed you on the TTU play. I tailed some other guys in the CBB section and now I am gun shy in CBB. Thankfully my Thunder are having a solid game. I added N.O +3 as a personal play. I want payback for yesterday.
 
Anyone check covers? In the N.O/Sac matchup, they have Rudy Yag as Rudy "Happy". How can you change someones lastname? Seems pretty stupid to me.
 
u should try this in college hoops i am seeing these lines moving alot of points and all the moves are in the right direction about 75% of the time .. its alarming
 
I did last friday, It went 3-8. I figured Vegas would need some time to figure out a line. We had a solid week last week, just off to a rocky start. Hopefully things start to fall into place.
 
Today was below average day using this system. Not all days are going to be great but I was using it today and I went

NHL: 2-2 +150 winner +105 loser. Split the o/u's
NBA: 1-1 OKC ML loser and NO ML +130
NCAAB: 4-3
NCAAFB: 0-1
 
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Cleveland -2
Phx/Det under 204
Lakers +12
Orlando +5 Beware, they have hit 7 straight ATS. I will still make them a play though.
Mil/bkn over 198


YoungGun, post the freaking NHL plays!!
 
Eric can you post the percentages, opener, and current lines please as you have in the past.

I can't post the NCAAB and NHL tonight as I normally take those two on for the RLM system. The webiste I use in tracking RLM which also displays puck is www.scoresandodds.com I can't pull it up at work, and on my phone it won't show me the percentages only the opener and the current. If you want to be a single mom and post the strongest plays in RLM from NCCAB and NHL tonight, I would appreciate it. I know you ain't got shit going on at Texas Tech.
 
PS I am not seeing the Lakers as a play, I have a friend running the RLM for me and he says it shows 49% on the lakers tonight. Not sure if we have same system Eric, but by my standards that is not a play. I see the Wolves as a play 71% on knicks yet line gone from -1.5 to +1.5
 
We play in the same league, but we don't ball the same.


Lakers a play for me because 60% on Houston, yet drops from -13, to -11 1/2.
 
My site shows only 51% on Houston

Here are my other plays I found
71% on Knicks go from -1.5 to +1.5
88% on the badgers tonight and line stays the same.... fishy.

Cleveland and Lakers no longer fit in the criteria I have been using. Cleveland line dsown to -1.5. Good luck Eric, bounce back from last night.

In NHL tonight, I am not playing but would be plays.
87% of money on Vancouver -140 opened and stayed at -140, play would be Edmonton.
 
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75% on KC -7, line remains at -7. Oakland +7 will be a play
58% on LAC -4, line floats between -3 to -4. Miami +4 will be a play.
59% on Duke -7, line drops to -5 1/2. UNC +5 1/2 will be a play
69% on Tex State/Ark State over 59, line drops to 58 1/2. Under 58 1/2 will be a play.
76& on KSU/WVU over 58 1/2, line remains at 58 1/2. Under 58 1/2 will be a play.
 
Here are the NHL Plays I am following, in my opinion the trend is quite obvious.

NHL:
Toronto- 98% on Tampa and the line has remained at -135 WIN
Montreal- 92% on Saint Louis and line has remained at -120 WIN
Ottawa- 99% on Nashville and line has moved from -120 to -110 WIN
Winnipeg- 94% on Detroit and line has moved from -115 Detroit to -110 Winnipeg LOSS
Washington-94% on Colorado line has moved from Colo -110 to Washington -120 in spots LOSS

NBA:
Bulls/kings UNDER 196 WIN

NCAAF:
UNC +5 WIN
UNC under 66 WIN

NFL:
KC -7 LOSS
KC under 42 LOSS

NCAAB
Alabama -13 WIN
Loyola +12 LOSS
California +5 WIN
Denver +10 LOSS
 
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TheCashMan said:
Those hockey % are large...
could post earlier .., like before they start.. :)
Click to expand...

I totally agree. I usually work until 4-6 then I get home do my research, put in my plays and then relay them on here. Some are early most often they are just prior or just after as I try to wait until the end for accuracy. I will make a conscious effort to post before they start, however I believe I posted before most had started at 7. Hockey was 4-1, the other plays I posted were my own personal plays.
 
77% on Air Force +6, line moves from +3 to +6. SDSU -6 will be a play.
58% on UTEP/Rice over 53 1/2, line drops to 50. Under 50 will be a play.
71% on Memphis -7 1/2, line drops to -6 1/2. Boston +6 1/2 will be a play.
88% on Det/Atl under 197 1/2, line remains at 197 1/2. Over 197 1/2 will be a play.
88% on Brooklyn PK, line moves from PK to +1. OKC -1 will be a play.
64% on Dal/LAL over 217 1/2, line drops to 216. Under 216 will be a play.

Going to give NHL a shot:
89% on Pitt -175, juice drops from -175 to -165. NY Islanders ML will be a play.
92% on Boston ML -140, juice drops from -140 to -129. Columbus ML will be a play.
 
Glad you posted before I did saved me some time. Just spent the last few hours reviewing the plays. I will try to add some I also see fit.

NHL:
Islanders +140
Islanders UNDER 5.5 EVEN
Blue jackets +105
Oilers -115

NCAAF:
Rice UNDER 49.5
SDSU -5
SDSU under 49

NBA:
Orlando +4
Hawks Over 198
Cleveland under 204.5
Boston +7
Boston under 199
OKC -2
Dallas under 217
Jazz under 207
Jazz +11
 
TheCashMan said:
Those hockey % are large...
could post earlier .., like before they start.. :)
Click to expand...

The hockey %s are large because there is most likely very, very limited action on the games. It would seem that hockey would be the sport that these percentages are least valuable.
 
Lareux,

I agree but they also are the sport with arguable the most upsets, and I have found to be the most profitable using this system at this time.
 
YoungGun11 said:
Lareux,

I agree but they also are the sport with arguable the most upsets, and I have found to be the most profitable using this system at this time.
Click to expand...

What do upsets have to do with using percentages to make wagers? You're simply using what you perceive to be accurate percentages (based on the limited volume to begin with), coupled with little or no line movement to make a wager...and the number of bets doesn't necessarily mean anything if you don't know how much is being wagered to begin with.

And forgive me if I've missed a whole bunch of your NHL plays with this system, but there have only been a handful of plays in this thread in the NHL...what makes it the "most profitable?"
 
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