Let's start discussing some games.

Jimmydafreak

Jimmydafreak

Pretty much a regular
After doing some preliminary research, I have identified 11 games in week 1 that I have some interest in. I'm not necessarily going to bet all of these games. Please feel free to express your opinions about any of them, or point out games that aren't on my list that you think should be.

I will post some of my thoughts on each game as time permits. Please feel free to do the same.

I realize some of these lines may be a bit off. I can adjust them as I go.

Thursday Night Games:

UNLV +17 @ Minnesota

Mississippi +2.5 @ Vanderbilt

Friday Night Games:

No games of interest at this time

Saturday Games:

Toledo @ Florida -21.5

Louisiana Monroe +23 @ Oklahoma

Rice +28 @ Texas A&M

Purdue +14 @ Cincinnati

Buffalo @ Ohio State -33

Alabama -18 @ Virginia Tech *** Max Bet @ anything under 21 ***

Miami (Ohio) @ Marshall -10.5

LSU -5.5 @ TCU

Sunday Games:

No games of interest at this time

Monday Night Game:

Florida State -7 @ Pittsburgh

 
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Good to see you back, Jimmy... Solid job last year, especially on those big bangers. Looks like I'll definitely be on Bama.
 
unlv's road results are concerning. they just can't score. and while minny didn't blow anybody out last year, my gut tells me that is a route.
 
how does phil steele have logan thomas as his 6th rated draft eligible qb? says a lot about him right there. va tech's defense has a better chance to score than the offense. easy one there.

looking for more info on the redhawks offense. herd should roll.

also found out that cato isn't loved by his teammates and is sort of aloof. similar to geno actually. shouldn't matter early or as long as they're winning the ones they should but it is something to keep in mind.
 
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How can there possibly be a good feel for anything on July 11th? Love the idea though! Lol
 
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Some quick thoughts on Ole Miss +2.5 @ Vanderbilt

Being a SEC conference game, this game falls into my handicapping wheelhouse so to speak. Initially I was very torn on this game because I have a tremendous amount of respect for both coaches. Both do a terrific job of getting the most out of their players, getting them to play extremely hard for 60 minutes, and getting them to believe they can beat anyone. I watched the game between these two teams last season in which Vanderbilt overcame a 17-point 3rd quarter deficit to win 27-26 in the waning moments of the game. Afterwards I remembered feeling that Ole Miss was the better team, but let one get away.

Good coaches often make huge strides from year 1 to year 2 and there are many reasons for that. In the case of Hugh Freeze, everything seemingly sets up perfectly for him to make a huge sophomoric jump. I say that because Freeze returns almost his entire team from last season, and I think that continuity will be huge particularly on the defensive side of the ball where they played almost all freshman and sophomores last season. I know defensive coordinator Dave Wommack had to keep things very simple for his young defense last season, and has been working hard in the off season to implement more of his defensive playbook.

Entering James Franklin's 3rd season, Vandy also has a lot of confidence and continuity heading into this season. But with Vandy losing their two most vital cogs from their offense from a year ago (Jordan Rogers & Zac Stacy), I think Vandy will struggle to move the ball against Ole Miss. Actually, save for some long passes that broke Ole Miss' back, Ole Miss' defense did a pretty good of shutting Vandy's offense down last season.

Vandy returns 6 starters from a defense that ranked 15th in the country by allowing just 18.7 ppg. I expect this unit to be very stout again this season, and I also expect them to keep Vandy competitive in this game.

I think this will be a close hard-fought game between two scrappy and well-coached teams, but in the end I am very confident that, despite being the road team, Ole Miss will emerge from this game victorious.

This game is a definite play for me.
 
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tru said:
At those numbers I do like ole piss, rice, bama
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Yeah, "at those numbers" is the key. Every year I do a ton of off season prep, and then when the real lines come out they are no longer where I capped them. That is very frustrating.

I will be happier than a lesbian with a liquor license if I can get any substantial amount of money on Alabama at anything below 21. I'm not overly confident that will happen however. If I were lining this game, I would set the number at 24.

I am very confident Ole Miss will beat Vandy, so I'm delighted to see them getting points. If the Ole Miss' line stays in the black, I'll be happy to jump on the ML for a little extra payout.

I am very confident that Rice will score points against what figures to be a very suspect TAMU defense. The problem is I'm not sure if TAMU's punter need dress for this game. This could be a game where Rice gets in the end zone 4 times and still loses 58-28. What I like more than the 28 points is the OVER provided the number doesn't fly too far north of 70.
 
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Schrute said:
Hard to argue against Bama in week 1 but I'll be all over Colo St against them
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The time to fade Alabama is when they play inferior teams like Colorado State. They rarely cover those 40+ lines. Saban usually pulls the plug before it gets too far out of hand.
 
dickydunn said:
unlv's road results are concerning. they just can't score. and while minny didn't blow anybody out last year, my gut tells me that is a route.
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This is a game I have not looked at closely yet. It is more of a reaction to my initial impression. I will get deeper into it at some point.

It took the Golden Gophers 3 OTs last season to dispatch of a very pesky UNLV team - a team that returns virtually everyone of note. The first 4 quarters of that game were absolutely dreadful, only to give way to three relatively exciting overtime periods. As much as anything else, I'm just not sure how Minnesota could be favored by 17 over anyone. The line seems unprecedented. I just don't see it. I think Bobby Hauck's team will keep this game competitive again, and cash my ticket.

This game would seem to be right up VK's alley. Curious as to what his thoughts are on UNLV, Bobby Hauck, and this ball game.
 
dickydunn said:
how does phil steele have logan thomas as his 6th rated draft eligible qb? says a lot about him right there. va tech's defense has a better chance to score than the offense. easy one there.

looking for more info on the redhawks offense. herd should roll.

also found out that cato isn't loved by his teammates and is sort of aloof. similar to geno actually. shouldn't matter early or as long as they're winning the ones they should but it is something to keep in mind.
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My main concern with the Thundering Herd is their defense. It has been on an umpromising downward trajectory. Can they stop anyone??? The OVER is a viable option here as well.
 
I lean Buffalo to cover a 30+ spread over OSU. Buffalo has a stud running back who had a nice game vs Georgia LY so you know he can play vs real teams. OSU returns zero on the DL and the LB situation last year was a fucking joke.
That front 7 is gonna be soft early in the year.
I think Buffalo will chew some clock and score a few times.
Hard to see Braxton putting up more than 40ish which means Buffalo should get the cover.
 
Marsski said:
I lean Buffalo to cover a 30+ spread over OSU. Buffalo has a stud running back who had a nice game vs Georgia LY so you know he can play vs real teams. OSU returns zero on the DL and the LB situation last year was a fucking joke.
That front 7 is gonna be soft early in the year.
I think Buffalo will chew some clock and score a few times.
Hard to see Braxton putting up more than 40ish which means Buffalo should get the cover.
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Thanks for your thoughts Marsski.

This is a game of second impression. I have not delved into this game deeply, but my first impression was to like Buffalo plus the 33, so I really have no disagreement with you. All indications are that Buffalo will be a much improved team this season and may make a push for the Eastern Division championship. My only reason for thinking about taking OSU is that Meyer absolutely loves to run the score up whenever possible just as he did in last season's opener against Miami (Ohio) (scoring 21 meaningless points in the 4th quarter). I agree that OSU will probably have to hit the half century mark to cover the spread, and if Buffalo can successfully eat some clock, Meyer probably won't cover.
 
Marsski said:
I lean Buffalo to cover a 30+ spread over OSU. Buffalo has a stud running back who had a nice game vs Georgia LY so you know he can play vs real teams. OSU returns zero on the DL and the LB situation last year was a fucking joke.
That front 7 is gonna be soft early in the year.
I think Buffalo will chew some clock and score a few times.
Hard to see Braxton putting up more than 40ish which means Buffalo should get the cover.
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Help is on the way, brotha.
 
I'm dropping Florida as a potential bet. This line would have to get down to 17 for me to consider putting money on the Gators.
 
Ole Miss will be a very crowded boat....That line should rocket up to something wild imo

Ill go another way and say I like the Boilermakers at that number as do you Jimmy

Also LSU under a TD is easy for me....maybe easier will be a suspect o/u number....what u make that freak?
 
Jimmydafreak said:
Something like that. What is your take? I know several people that like the UNC side.
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It'll come down to UNC stopping the USC run game and QB scramble. No question the UNC secondary is getting better, but what they need in this game will be the front 7 or 8 as they'll be vulnerable. Nobody takes the clock away from the opposing team these days like Spurrier.

Heels can score and they'll test that USC secondary mixed in with some really good talent coming out of the back field. Your avg Joe thinks bc Gio is gone UNC has no talent. Simply not the case.

Match-up to watch will be James Hurst vs Jadaveon Clowney. One superb talent vs a really good talent.

I like the Heels to cover this game, but so does a lot of others so you know what that usually means. O/U will be low to mid 50's I imagine and I'll pull the trigger on an over.

USC 37
UNC 28

thats the way I see it today, July 12th.
 
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Carolina Guy said:
It'll come down to UNC stopping the USC run game and QB scramble. No question the UNC secondary is getting better, but what they need in this game will be the front 7 or 8 as they'll be vulnerable. Nobody takes the clock away from the opposing team these days like Spurrier.

Heels can score and they'll test that USC secondary mixed in with some really good talent coming out of the back field. Your avg Joe thinks bc Gio is gone UNC has no talent. Simply not the case.

Match-up to watch will be James Hurst vs Jadaveon Clowney. One superb talent vs a really good talent.

I like the Heels to cover this game, but so does a lot of others so you know what that usually means. O/U will be low to mid 50's I imagine and I'll pull the trigger on an over.

USC 37
UNC 28

thats the way I see it today, July 12th.
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Outside of TAMU and Piss, seems to be SEC-wide

just makin sure I aint missing something, but I would say Scary more balanced than the LSUs, no?

Or are you meaning in this game and vs ACC ball?
 
an uptempo offense like the one UNC runs - dies when the other team plays the time of possession game.

ie: clemson last 2 years vs. USC.

However I think USC can be pretty decent on O this year and this wont be a game where they just sit on the ball.




This USC OL had some struggles in 2012 but they were fairly young. They avg 320 across the OL and if they can't push defenders backwards this year maybe Shawn Elliott should scoop up the next job that comes calling.


When USM came to USC a few years ago under Fedora, every passing play was a 3 step drop. USC did not sack the QB one time in that game but they never really had a chance when every passing playing was 10yds or less. But you fall behind and this defense knows you have to pass they will get after you. However, there is potential to take advantage of matchups in the secondary if the play gets off.

Clowney is now a 275lb man that will not be blocked by anyone 1 on 1 when he wants to make a big play. His strength has now caught up to his physical abilities but even he can't get to the QB when its a quick passing attack like that.

I think UNC scores some points, USC scores more. Interested to see the O/U cause I think it may go over 60pts.

41-24
 
Looks like we see it as close as eye-to-eye as we ever have. Lol. But Hurst vs Clowney is a match-up of two early 2014 1st round picks in the NFL. Toughest match-up Clowney will see all year. Yes, I did say that.
 
E.T.G. said:
an uptempo offense like the one UNC runs - dies when the other team plays the time of possession game.

ie: clemson last 2 years vs. USC.

However I think USC can be pretty decent on O this year and this wont be a game where they just sit on the ball.




This USC OL had some struggles in 2012 but they were fairly young. They avg 320 across the OL and if they can't push defenders backwards this year maybe Shawn Elliott should scoop up the next job that comes calling.


When USM came to USC a few years ago under Fedora, every passing play was a 3 step drop. USC did not sack the QB one time in that game but they never really had a chance when every passing playing was 10yds or less. But you fall behind and this defense knows you have to pass they will get after you. However, there is potential to take advantage of matchups in the secondary if the play gets off.

Clowney is now a 275lb man that will not be blocked by anyone 1 on 1 when he wants to make a big play. His strength has now caught up to his physical abilities but even he can't get to the QB when its a quick passing attack like that.

I think UNC scores some points, USC scores more. Interested to see the O/U cause I think it may go over 60pts.

41-24
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I zero feel for that game, which is why I won't touch it. I certainly don't see it being as high scoring as you, but what the hell do I know???
 
Carolina Guy said:
Looks like we see it as close as eye-to-eye as we ever have. Lol. But Hurst vs Clowney is a match-up of two early 2014 1st round picks in the NFL. Toughest match-up Clowney will see all year. Yes, I did say that.
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Disagree here. Tiny Richardson of UTk will be the best OT he faces all year. Hurst is good but not elite.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
I'm dropping Florida as a potential bet. This line would have to get down to 17 for me to consider putting money on the Gators.
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Wouldnt touch it above 3 scores. 17 possibly I agree. They gotta prove they can get up on and put a team away. They should be able to run all over Toledo with only 4 returning for Toledo on d but they gotta prove they can first to get my money. Jmo
 
cudder said:
Wouldnt touch it above 3 scores. 17 possibly I agree. They gotta prove they can get up on and put a team away. They should be able to run all over Toledo with only 4 returning for Toledo on d but they gotta prove they can first to get my money. Jmo
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I agree. The games posted are ones that initially piqued my interest. I have not fully broken most of these games down yet. As I looked at the Toledo/Florida game in depth, I decided it wasn't for me.

Last year my final Week 1 card bore little resemblance to the list of games I was initially interested in.
 
*rumor* has it, Clowney ran a 4.46 in testing yesterday at 272lbs.

No I do not believe its a legit 4.46 but he probably runs mid 4.5's at the combine
 
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