Lets get started on WEEK Two-NCAA

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
I feel this is a very important part of handicapping. That is, working on the next weeks games at he end of thus weeks handicapping. I am a huge situational capper in anything and feel this helps a lot. Last year RJ, myself and a few others would get things started early. For you newcomers, guys like RJ and Troy would always have a Sunday Morning Thread going so they were ready to hit the lines when Pinny and Cris released them in late afternoon. Now, week 2 is unique because we have to see these teams play a little bit still. That being said looking ahead to week two now helps you get your intial thoughts organized and can still help with handicapping week one(i.e lookaheads).

If you do power ratings, etc feel free to post projected lines in this thread.

I will post about 25-30 matchups that caught my ye with a brief comment after each. Lets let the thread go from there....

(I will submit these 6 at a time so it doesn't look overbearing)

Virginia Tech @ LSU
-This is a much hyped game. Night game in Baton Rouge is always a bitch. The first of this series was 26-8 I believe back in 2003 in favor of the Hokies. LSU defense will smother these guys in my opinion. If its a soft line I will hammer LSU. LSU also will have 2 extra days preperation.

South Florida @ Auburn
-Auburn is not the power that they have been lately. USF is one of the talked about underdog teams. Even though they have been hyped heavily I still like them. I think thi can be an interesting game.

Messy St @ Tulane
-Tulane shaves but thats another story..lol. A game that we need to see Messy play first game to get a general idea. I honestly have no idea here but I guarantee that their is value in some shape or form.

Georgia @ South Carolina
-Well, this should be interesting. For us SC lovers we should hope they kill OkieSt in week one. Spurrier has been shut out twice in career..one was last year to UGA(18-0). Love this Gamecock squad this year and think they win this SU. Hopeing for value on the line.

Troy @ Florida
-I note this game because of this...The Arkansas game will make this a value line in some way I believe. It could be either way I think. In Van's words..overlay perhaps.

Southern Miss @ Tennessee
-Rocky top home opener has many intangibles involved. If they go out there and win we could have value on a solid SO Piss team. If they get hammered they could be in a funk. It could also fall in the middle. Just wanted to point this spot out
 
SC over UGA!

Oh man I can't wait for this game. I would love for them to kill Ok St, I have been saying it all along but as of right now it doesn't appear that way.
 
Cont...

Oregon @ Michigan
-Huge test for Michigans defense. This will tell us a lot. At same time UM will just overpower this team. This is an over I may hit hard. The QB situation(not in camp..striking out in minor league) is interesting.

Notre Dame @ Penn State
-PSU had a fuckin helluva defense last year. They basically did to Ohio State what Florida did. The difference was some defensive scores for the Buckeyes. PSU isn't as fast as Florida but held them down. Last years game at South bend was classic. I hammered(me and Hunt) ND -8. We won easily. It wasn't how I cap but Moreeli was so horrible at that point at Quinn and Co made plays. This year in the Valley I expect a big game outta Morelli and a blowout win. If its single didgits for some reason OH MY!

Wisconsin @ UNLV
-I like good teams. I like good teams with somewhat short numbers. Early in the year I think we may find it here. Even sans Hinds I hope UNLV rolls week one so I can catch some value. Love Wisky this year.

Nevada @ NorthWestern
-Revenge game. Nevadas game at Lincoln will tell me a lot. NW will be better this year..not a bowl team but better. I think Sutton could have a field day.

Indiana @ Western Michigan
-Western is the best team in the MAC. They have to play at the Glass Bowl so they may not win the conference. They have WVU in week one. hey will get hit but do not judge them on that game. Huge thing having a Big ten team coming into Waldo Stadium. Love Hardy and the boys but this has value on it..big time.

Miami(FL) @ Oklahoma
-Good old-fashioned gut check. Two great defenses and which QB makes plays. This line will be interesting to me in all honesty
 
Cont...

TCU @ Texas
-Who knows with Texas injuries. Frogs are getting rated highly. I will prolly stay off but this will be an interesting game betting wise

Missouri @ Ole Miss
-If the Tigers take care of Illy in SL in week one they may become one of those teams. A hot offensive team that Joe Publics bet on road as small chalk. Not saying I would back Miss here but this could be a very public play

Nebraska @ Wake Forest
-A spot I really am looking at week two

SJSU @ Kansas State
-I put this up because I know my boy Gridiron Gems has a lot of SJSU thoughts and goes to K-State

UAB @ FSU
-I expect exactly zero points from UAB. This game I will look at an under for sure
 
Cont..

ULM @ Clemson
-Week one for Warhawks is huge. I know that Clem has line and QB issues and if ULM shows something against Tulsa they may still be value here.

NC State @ Boston College
-O'Briens return. we all know SHSU has hit this already on BC. Situational play? Prolly. NCSU play in week one will be crucial to my selection.

UCLA @ BYU
-I love UCLA this year. laying off week one but as a somewhat short road favorite this may be a really nice spot.

Boise St @ Washington
-Just a very interesting game IMO

West Virginia @ Marshall
-Can already tell you my intial reaction here could be a huge 1H play
 
Very quick thoughts..

LSU/VT: LSU has won over 77% of their home night games.
USF/Auburn: I know a lot of people are going to have USF in this game but this will be a proving game for me. I want to see what they got, prob will be little value in the dog here and a very public side since they are a darling.
MSU/Tulane: If there was ever a time to lay chalk with MSU, its this game. Revenge here for the bulldogs.
Georgia/SC: I have been waiting a very long time for this game. I think it goes without question who I am taking + points here but trust me, legit shot to win SU. Would like UGA victory in wk1.
Troy/UF: I could see Troy getting some crazy number but not sure how much interest I have here.
Southern Miss/Tennessee: Interesting spot you mention here. So Miss def has some talent this yr. Will watch how Cal runs the ball on them since that is the biggest strength of SoMiss.
Oregon/ Michigan: I like the thought of an over here. I personally don't understand all of the love Oregon is getting so I am more of a wait and see type of guy with them this yr. Michigan defense will get a test but do like the total a lot more here.
Notre Dame/Penn State: The Fade ND train starts off in wk1 and continues in wk2. Pay back is a bitch.
Wisconsin/LV: Don't worry, if you have Wisky, the power might go out again after they are up big.
Nevada/NorthWestern: NW prob should of won that game last yr, it was def close. Nevada will be worse than last yr and NW should be better. Another revenge spot and I like NW.
Indiana/Western Michigan: Indiana is one of those teams I like to avoid and prob will do so here. MAC teams for the most part are a huge no-no for me however the ones in the state of Michigan seem to be alright.
Miami(FL)/Oklahoma: A lot of running plays in this game. Two good defenses stepping up here. Like Oky to win this game pretty handily though.
TCU /Texas: Very interesting games here. Frogs have to step up to the plate here. Agree that this is a game I just might watch and not bet.
Missouri/Ole Miss: Could see the public side of this bet but at the same time I am not expect much from Ole Piss and it might be justified.
Nebraska/Wake Forest: I don't know how Wake did it last yr, I don't but I like the Husker and I like what Keller can do at QB.
SJSU/Kansas State: KS is another team I have a tough time with. I know SJSU and I like them in WAC play, not sure how much I like them OOC. The game vs. ASU will tell a lot about how they will matchup OOC since their run defense will be tested often by Torrain.
UAB/FSU: Yea, UAB is going to have a very very tough day here. That team is just terrible this yr. FSU should be able to cover -30 in this game but not sure I am willing to lay it.
ULM/ Clemson: Not sure if I want to deal with Tammy and Clemsux if they are off a loss, they are capable of running the ball 55times for 55 points vs. ULM.
NC State/ Boston College: Ilike this BC team a lot and I like Matt Ryan a lot. The bad part is that NC State plays best in this underdog type role and O'Brien will have them prepared. At the end of the day it is BC or nothing for me in a major revenge situation.
UCLA/BYU: That defense is just nice and they could have a field day with the inexperienced QB. I am on Zona in WK1, with a better defense in WK2, should be interesting what the line is.
Boise St/Washington: I think the Boise train keeps rolling here.
West Virginia/Marshall: Agree on the 1st half play, Marshall does not have much but a TE this yr and losing their DE is crushing to that defense. This is also a little instate bad blood.
 
I'll bet South Florida all day against Auburn. Hope the Tigers take care of business against KSU, so you can catch a decent line. If they struggle, we aren't going to get more than a TD or so here.

I wouldn't hope for UGA to beatdown OSU in Week 1, because I don't want them to gain a ton of confidence coming into the SC game. I'd love to see them struggle, maybe win by a TD or so, but not real convincingly. I don't want them to lose, but I don't want them to blow out the Pokes either. I'm sure I'll be on SC here though.

Southern Miss should be money. Gotta love this team and they'll be catching plenty of points. Tennessee really struggles against shitty competition at home, it seems like.

Miami will be a good bet at Oklahoma. They were MONEY before last year as underdogs. I think they'll hang tight here, as there's pretty much no way the Sooners blast that D with a new QB.

I hope I catch more than 4 with Wake. Less than 4, and it's a tough play, but I think it could be great if they're catching more. What a horrible spot for the Huskers.
 
Virginia Tech @ LSU
-Looking AT LSU hard ONLY b/c Glennon is a pussy and LSU will shut them down. VT doesn't se speed like LSU ever. They are faster than Miami. LSU also is great on both sides of the ball. I see a 17-6 game IMO
South Florida @ Auburn
-AU is still a really solid team despite losses and underacheiving last year.The secret is out on USF but they never have played in SEC county especially in the state of bama. Despite forum belief this is all AU in abreakout old fashioned ass whooping. Tuberville will have his boys ready for this public dog of just under DD.
Messy St @ Tulane
-Who cares?
Georgia @ South Carolina
-This will be a near pickem if things pan out the way I think they will, maybe even a small home dog if the public money comes in fast enough. Although I wouldn't be surprised to a public dog situation in UGA. SC -2.5 is what I cap it at. 20-13
Troy @ Florida
-Florida should be able to break out the whipping sticks on this one. Way tooooooo much speed on defense and the recievers. Teebow will feel more comfortable afte rthe ass beatng they put on WKY and confidence will play high. Teebow -20.5 after Troy shows they can hang with Arkie, hahaha I laugh though for this game. 43-13
Southern Miss @ Tennessee
-Too early to cap this one IMO
Oregon @ Michigan
-UM should be laying around 8 at this point. Just enough to get action on both sides. Gimme UM. This one isn't close guys UM has a lot to prove this year especially with OSU rebuilding/reloading early on. 34-17

Notre Dame @ Penn State
-We will not see DD in this game as far as a spread. PSU will lay 9 and it will get knocked down to 6 by game time.Fucking hom(o)ers. lol. maybe not that much movement but you get what I'm saying. I think this game shoudl be at 7 though. PSU will win by 10 ATLEAST IMO. Maybe even a semi shutout....27-13
Wisconsin @ UNLV
-Wisky all day running and the occasional deep PA ball. No analysis needed. Spread will be around 15-19 range I believe and we should be so thankful..... 38-10
Nevada @ NorthWestern
-Lucky for NW Nevada lost their QB. NW rolls.....29-14
Indiana @ Western Michigan
-Possible home dog? Who klnows too early to see where teams will be in in week 2 and what the linesmakers are doing this year. I too like WMU and think they win the MAC over toledo. Might see a high scoring game, too early though I think lets go... 24-27 either way today and after week one i'll refine that.
Miami(FL) @ Oklahoma
-Defense v defense. Lets look at an over play. With 2 mediocre QBs defenses will get TOs and even scoreor give the offense a short field to work with. I like the U though if they can get a TD. I don't play MLs but I'd take a shot here I think Okie is so overrated this year. 33-27 either way at this point.
TCU @ Texas
-HORN ???????? Texas should beat that ass. Defense will be too much.
Missouri @ Ole Miss
-MIzzo rolls...31-14
Nebraska @ Wake Forest
-Lets see week one first

SJSU @ Kansas State
-I rode sjsu last year but I think everyone knows about them may justfade them afte KSU gets their asses beat at AU.
UAB @ FSU
-Everyyear FSU blpows someone out of the water here it is get it early guys....49-13
ULM @ Clemson
-Warhawks if I can catch around 2 TDs
NC State @ Boston College
-BC by DD I like BC a lot this year while the "experts" hate...23-7
UCLA @ BYU
-Can we get single digits? I hope....27-10
Boise St @ Washington
-?????????????
West Virginia @ Marshall
-1H play then watch the young bucks finish the job. 28-3 at half!...45-16 final
 
Linde - I was thinking if UGA won big over OSU, the line would be a little more inflated but I understand what that could do for UGA from a confidence standpoint. Regardless of how much they win by, there is 1 thing I am sure about, I don't want them to lose. That just brings a situation I don't want to have to bet against in WK2. I am taking SC ML in this game unless there are some major injuries on the SC side before the game but I also want to take the points so I would welcome as many as the book will give. I don't know if I agree about USF, the game is just a no bet for me and they will have to show me something that game.

Troy - I think outside of this forum and the state of SC, no one believes SC is going to beat UGA so I just see no way this line ever gives points to the home team. I think it is going to be around SC+4 or something unless OSU just beats the piss outa them in WK1. Key to watch in the OSU/UGA game is how effective they are running the ball vs. the new front 7 from UGA. Like PSU, just hope the line is a little short as well as UCLA and BC.
 
just got chills from watching this..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYOWErPXO-c&NR=1


I remember the game they show highlights of Williamson and Ko both breaking for TD's.. UGA came in at #3 with David Greene...Up 16-0 late in the 3rd and lose 20-16, terrible and it all unfolded right infront of the student section. I don't think I ate for a week
 
Awesome stuff so far.

As a homer, here is my thoughts on Oregon St. @ Cincy:

To be honest, I have no clue where this line is gonna end up, but I am convinced that there will be value somewhere. I believe that someone earlier in the summer projected it at Oregon St. -6, and Troy said that he would love Oregon St at that line (that was before the Strougher stuff). While I can't blame him, I have a tough time seeing this line much higher than a TD (assuming that both teams take care of business in Week 1)

This is also a Thursday night degen special, so it should get action. This is kind of an unusual game considering the match-up and the distance Oregon St. will be travelling.

All I can say is keep an eye on Cincy's QB situation, their adjustment to the spread offense, and the Strougher situation. Something tells me that there may be value on Oregon St., especially if they struggle with Utah. Also, a Cincy win over SE Mizzou will mask any difficulties they are having at QB and/or with the spread.
 
Some info about the Cincy QB situation from Kelly himself:

Coach Kelly's diary

University of Cincinnati football coach Brian Kelly is doing a daily diary for The Enquirer during the Bearcats' preseason. This installment is from Friday's practice at the Higher Ground Retreat Center in West Harrison, Ind.

This quarterback race is like the Olympics in swimming. They're going to be separated by 1/100th of a second. This is that close.

I've never been in such a competitive quarterback situation before with four guys. I don't know if we're going to be able to separate them by evaluation - grade, completion percentage, all the things that you try to do objectively to try to make those decisions. It may have to come down to playing them in a game to figure out who the best guy is.

Just as you think you're gaining some kind of handle on it, somebody else does something. Ben Mauk's arm was bothering him today and he wasn't able to do as much. Craig Carey looked good today.

The scrimmage will help us, but I'm leaning more toward thinking that this process won't clear up until we actually play a game.

Some of it might be a gut feeling. You want to be able to look a guy in the eye and say, "I know where he's coming from."

The battle at running back is heating up, too, particularly with sophomore Jacob Ramsey. He's 222 pounds, and he's running hard inside. Last year, his reputation was that he played a little soft, but he is running physical and we all know when he turns the corner he's got speed that the other guys don't have. He has really put himself in a position to challenge to be a starter.



It really seems to me that Mauk's injury is simply not improving fast enough. On the Cincy message board, many people attend some of the practices/scrimmages, and most of them do not want Dustin Grutza to win the job. They are saying that his arm strength is still not there and he has a difficult time reading the secondary.
 
Thanks for starting this up BAR, or else I probably wouldn't have looked at this stuff for another week. Good to get a head start of these things. Here are my thoughts on the games you listed:

VT-LSU
Edge for LSU at QB with Flynn over Glennon. One problem I could see is VT d-line disrupting a bit. If looking at SEC play, VT lost to Georgia by 7 in the bowl game last year. LSU speed too much however and homefield, LSU by 7-10

USF-Auburn
A bit concerned with the RB play of USF and don't want Auburn to make them one dimensional, but Grothe mobility helps out there too. But overall I will probably lean to USF and the points (whatever they are)

Miss St - Tulane
Miss St d-line poor, Croom only 3 road wins in his first 3 years, but I believe 2 were last year. Tulane has new coaches and QB trouble. Miss St plays LSU week 1 while this matchup will be Tulanes first. I don't really have a lean here.

Georgia - South Carolina
This game is usually really close. SC got shutout by Georgia last year, look for some revenge and I like SC here. Oh and BIG game as the winner of this could win the SEC East.

Troy - Florida
young OL for Troy concerns me a bit as Harvey could have a couple sacks and disrupt. If line is high enough though, I'd lean to Troy.

Southern Miss - Tenn
Ainge should be able to throw on the Southern Miss secondary, but Tenn WR problem. OL could bea problem for Southern Miss. Tenn barely beat Air Force last year (31-30) after the Cal game last year. Not much of a lean here either.

Oregon - Michigan
The front 7 not being as good for Michigan as last year, raise concern for Michigan. Stewart one of top RB in country along with Johnson could give Mich some trouble. Then that could open up something for Dennis Dixon. Right now I lean with Oregon and the points.

ND - Penn St
Don't think I need to say much... hate ND this year.. love Penn St. So Penn St most likely be a play

Wisky - UNLV
Like Wisky here...have to watch Rocky Hinds situation also.

Nevada - NW
like NW here as they had 5 turnovers in last year game which led to 24 of Nevadas 31 points. Sutton could run like hell in this game.

Indiana - WM
This is a close game for me to call... not really any lean. By the way, who is Indiana coach now?

Miami - OU
I love Miami here if the line is 9. Have to see the QB play of both teams in week 1. But almost could call a Miami SU win even.

TCU - Texas
Lean towards TCU and the points. TCU DL vs Texas OL , I like TCU to win this matchup. Jackson mobility help TCU. Just need to know Tommy Blake's situation.

Mizzou - Ole Miss
LB and DB problems for Ole Miss .. Mizzou will take advantage of it. Like Mizzou here

San Jose St - Kansas State
Thanks for putting this one up there BAR. Really like San Jose St here, interested to see the line, could be a big play. Only concern I have for SJS is their WR play. People here in Manhattan are only talking about the Auburn game as the team is only thinking about the Auburn game also. People here in Manhattan, KS don't even know SJS is a good team, they figure b/c of their name, it'll be an easy win. Not so fast....I wouldn't even be surprised to see a SJS straight up win in a low scoring game.

UAB - FSU
Like FSU of course

ULM - Clemson
If get enough points, lean ULM

NC St - BC
Both pretty good defenses, both good RB combos. Close game here and not really any lean. Could go either way in my opinion

UCLA - BYU
with BYU losing their top 2 tacklers and key positions on offense, I like UCLA here

Boise St - Washington
Not really any lean here either...will be a good, close game.

WV - Marshall
Love WV 1h here.

I will look at more matchups tomorrow or later on this week.
 
Situational plays for Week 2.

BC revenge game against O'Brien vs. NC State
Clemson in a potential letdown spot against ULM
Florida State in a sandwich spot against UAB
Georgia Tech in a sandwich spot against Samford
Maryland in a lookahead spot against FIU
UNC in a lookahead spot against ECU
L-ville in a lookahead spot against MTSU
Syracuse in a revenge game against Iowa
NW in a revenge game against Nevada
Wisconsin in a letdown spot against UNLV
Colorado in a revenge game against ASU
KSU in a possible let down spot against SJSU
Nebraska in a look ahead spot against Wake Forest
UTEP in a revenge game against TTech
Memphis in a revenge game against Ark St
Tulane in a revenge game against Miss St
Navy in a revenge game against Rutgers
Temple in a revenge game against Buffalo
Ohio in a possible look ahead against ULL
Air Force in a revenge game against Utah
UNM in a revenge game against NMSU
Wyoming in a sandwich game against Utah St
Florida in a possible look ahead spot against Troy
Georgia and South Carolina in a rivalry game
Kentucky in a possible look ahead spot against Kent St
Tennessee in a sandwich game against USM
 
i like LSU only if they win by 7-15 points, only because this signifies that they are looking forward.

I also like penn state, if this game is in the single digits then christmas come early for us all, b/c PSU is one of the loudest stadiums out there. The capacity for the stadium is at 104,000 but i'll be surprised if there is less than 110,000 there. This should end up being a confidence booster for Morelli.

I am in complete agreement with you for a under in the FSU game, also depending on the QB play an under might be inline for the miami&oklahoma game.

WVU, i lean this way only if Noel Devine dosen't redshirt, he is a 4.29 40 guy that can make scheming defense that much more difficult.

Michigan Under, only because when two potent offenses get together it usually ends up being a under game unless boise st or hawaii are playing. I will have to see what this line is at.
 
LSU only beat MSU by 7-15 points? That doesn't signify that they are looking forward. That signifies that they suck.

LSU should destroy MSU without much effort.
 
UM/Oregon will be close...UM defense is not that great imo and Oregon will expose this, plus it is before ND and Oregon has had all summer to prepare for this one with a shoddy Houston team breaking in a new qb in week 1. I will be on oregon and the over, but over bigger.
 
Hunt--My appreciation for LSU is the great D and an offense that will put up point especially against lesser competition.

Only question in my mind is QB. However, Flynn should do just fine.
 
I understand those things guys,,makes sense.

My thing is this, You have a great VT defense and they get around 8 or 9 points for a game nobody expects tem to win, that's a lot of points. I know they will cause some turnovers from Flynn and that will lead to some good field position. Glennon is the x factor though.
 
Not trying to be a party pooper on the Oregon/ Michigan OVER...
my initial reaction is basically the same as most in that it SHOULD
produce plenty of points but w/o knowing the number we can only
speculate.... lets say.....

- Books open it at 57 and it gets hammered up to 62 ( always a scary
prop following the flow ) or......

- It opens at 63 and we're left wondering whether or not its a fair number
early in the week w/o possible injs,susps, or inclement weather...in other
words how high is too high ??

Couple other thoughts -

Ducks D could very well be one of their best in years and not so sure we
will get a good read from the opener vs Houston

Oregon QB Dixon tends to struggle in road games...either way it shapes up
as a very attractive out of conference matchup....should be a dandy
 
IMGN..the number should be interesting

This UM offense can score on anyone..its how they play the game. I trhink Hunt and myself see them having to attack as the tyoung defense may struggle and it turns into shootout...

we'll see..
 
...

Virginia Tech @ LSU
I really think this game should be a very low scoring affair. The players should be tight early on and these may be the two best defenses in the country. If the total is 39 or over it has to be a huge under play.
South Florida @ Auburn
USF may be over their heads here
MSU @ Tulane
If MSU has confidence from the LSU game, they could play well in this spot. If they get killed, I would not touch them
Georgia @ South Carolina
South Carolina will be a very nice dog in this situation. Four or more is automatic, 3 or 3.5 also looks very appetizing.
Oregon @ Michigan
A lot of people here are underestimating the Oregon defense here. Oregon gave up a ton of points last year but it is my strong opinion that that happened due to a ton of turnovers (-16 vs. 1-A teams), horrendous special teams (some of the worst punting in the nation) and an offense that struggled at times and massive injuries to the DLine. If you isolate how the defense actually played by itself, it was very solid. Now ther is no guarantee that these problems will be fixed but it is dangerous to completely discount this Duck's defense. The secondary is probably among the nation's best and if you cap this game with the mindest that Oregon has no D, you may be in trouble. As for the line, it should open around 8, which is probably spot on.
Notre Dame @ Penn State
You have to love PSU here. Pound early and often, especially if ND beats Tech.
Nevada @ NorthWestern
Nevada should be overvalued.
Missouri @ Ole Miss
Both of these team's openers will tell us a lot about this game.
Nebraska @ Wake Forest
Fade Wake Forest is my mindest even though there probably wont be much value here.
UAB @ FSU
Beatdown city
UCLA @ BYU
If BYU can't beat Arizona, they won't beat the Bruins.
Boise St @ Washington
As much as it pains me to say it, I think Washington might be decent this season. Boise State may be the most overrated team in all of college football this year. This could be a really tough spot for them as a road favorite against a Pac-10 team.
 
Figured I would chime in with some week 2 under the radar games that I will have my eye on when the lines break. These are just thoughts off the top of my head as I don't have prelim lines or anything for these, so take em with a grain of salt. Feel free to post your thoughts on anything below as now that my week 1 card is set, I am just beginning to starting thinking about week 2 to be honest.


Oregon State v Cincinnati -
May be some value in Oregon State if Utah gives them a run in week 1 as Cincy should cruise to an easy victory vs SEMO. Would love to get Oregon State laying no more than -2.5 here (a Utah upset in week 1 could make this possible) as I think they can outscore the Bearcats, even though Nippert should be jumping for this Thursday night matchup.

Louisville v MTSU -
Would love to get the Ville at 28 or less but would probably need MTSU to pull off a win in week 1 for this to happen. Line will probably end up being too high to make it a play as MTSU is a decent squad that should be able to score a couple in this one.

UVA v Duke -
Really like UVA in this one but would love a Wyoming upset in week 1 so that I can get this one around -6.5. Otherwise I think it will be too high for me to make it a play.

MSU v BGSU -
I think BG is going to put up a decent fight vs Minny so that should help with the value on this line as while I would like to get a line at less than DD, I would still probably like MSU at anything up to -13.5 or less.

Fresno v A&M -
I think both teams will win big in week 1 (Fresno MOV should be higher than A&M's though), but would like to get Fresno with DD points as I think they have the guns this year to hang with A&M. Actually would not be shocked if Fresno took em into the 4th quarter in a tight back and forth battle.

Boise v Washington
I know many will be looking to fade Boise on the road, but I look for them to surprise against what may be a light line. Would love to see a pk type of line as Washington should beat the Cuse and Boise will cruise in week 1. I actually like Boise as long as the line is -2.5 or less. A dominating performance by UW in week 1 would help me here.

FSU v UAB -
Would like to get an MSU type of line in this one as I like FSU up to about -19.5 in this one. UAB may be good for 7 to 10 at the most so as long as FSU comes to play, covering anything up to 24 shouldn't be an issue.

Arkie State v Memphis
Actually like the potential value I may get with the Indians in this one as I think Memphis upsets Ole Miss in week 1 and Arkie will get smoked. Arkie has a decent lil bro v big bro rivalry going vs Memphis so they always play em tough. Would love to get DD in this one as that would make Arkie worth a serious look.

Hawaii v LT -
Would take Hawaii at anything up to about 35 but I think the line will be higher after they dismember Northern Colorado in week 1.

WMU v Indiana -
Really like WMU in this one as Indiana will probably be laying points after ripping Indy State in week 1. WMU should put up a fight vs WVU but I hope they lose by 20+ so that I get value in this one as I think WMU can win SU at home vs the Hoosiers. +7.5 would be a number I would like to have here.

That's all I have for now, most of the marquee games don't interest me from a value standpoint, as most of you guys know, so that is why I don't have anything on VT v LSU, SC vs UGA, Texas v TCU, PSU v ND, etc
 
FSU v UAB -
Would like to get an MSU type of line in this one as I like FSU up to about -19.5 in this one. UAB may be good for 7 to 10 at the most so as long as FSU comes to play, covering anything up to 24 shouldn't be an issue.

I doubt UAB ever scores in this one. If its somehow a Sparty like line its a gift. I will prolly play it higher.
 
WMU v Indiana -
Really like WMU in this one as Indiana will probably be laying points after ripping Indy State in week 1. WMU should put up a fight vs WVU but I hope they lose by 20+ so that I get value in this one as I think WMU can win SU at home vs the Hoosiers. +7.5 would be a number I would like to have here.


That number would be great IMO. Huge game having a big-ten club come up to k-zoo.
 
+7.5? WMU will be favored, or catching less than a FG. No way will we see that line, although that would be sweeeeet....
 
lindetrain said:
+7.5? WMU will be favored, or catching less than a FG. No way will we see that line, although that would be sweeeeet....
Click to expand...

I agree thats high as I would love to see it but know we won't.

Anyones power ratings numbers showing anything on some of these games?
 
I'll help you out BAR...

LSU -7
Auburn -5.5
Georgia -4
Michigan -8.5
Penn State -11
Oklahoma -11
Texas -14
Nebraska -1.5
Western Michigan -5
 
CarolinaBlue,

That Duke - 'Hoo game is in Charlottesville if I'm not mistaken; you're hoping for an early Christmas at -6'. Try about 17 to 20.
 
lindetrain said:
I'll help you out BAR...

LSU -7
Auburn -5.5
Georgia -4
Michigan -8.5
Penn State -11
Oklahoma -11
Texas -14
Nebraska -1.5
Western Michigan -5
Click to expand...


Thank you sir. I actually ran some quick numbers last night and had WMU as a 4.5..lol. Forgot to post it.

Good stuff
 
The only lines that aren't a little soft there are Georgia, Michigan, and Penn State...I have a tough time seeing the rest of those within 1-2 points of my PR number.

I would guess:

LSU -9.5
Auburn -7
Oklahoma -8.5
Texas -16
Nebraska -3
Western Michigan -2
 
horses said:
CarolinaBlue,

That Duke - 'Hoo game is in Charlottesville if I'm not mistaken; you're hoping for an early Christmas at -6'. Try about 17 to 20.
Click to expand...

Yeah, what I was saying was that I was hoping for Wyoming to pull off a big win vs UVA in week so that I might be able to get some value with the Cavs in a bounceback situation. I am expecting around 17.5 but it won't be that high if Wyoming wins big in week 1, which I don't expect will happen, but honestly wouldn't be shocked if it did.
 
So far I plan on pounding Penn State and LSU and am looking really hard at Sconsin, Northwestern, Oregon, and Nebraska.

Im really high on Nebraska this year and think Wake last year was a fluke. I lost a good chunk last year fading them throughout the year last year thinking they would finally come back to earth and they never did. Keller will be huge this year for Nebraska and I think Callahan will lead them to a very good showing in the Big 12. Im a big fan of Lucky and think he could have a great year this year. Wasnt there something on Purify earlier in the summer. Did I hear injury or suspension or am I just dreaming because him and Keller could have a huge year this year
 
signalcaller said:
So far I plan on pounding Penn State and LSU and am looking really hard at Sconsin, Northwestern, Oregon, and Nebraska.

Im really high on Nebraska this year and think Wake last year was a fluke. I lost a good chunk last year fading them throughout the year last year thinking they would finally come back to earth and they never did. Keller will be huge this year for Nebraska and I think Callahan will lead them to a very good showing in the Big 12. Im a big fan of Lucky and think he could have a great year this year. Wasnt there something on Purify earlier in the summer. Did I hear injury or suspension or am I just dreaming because him and Keller could have a huge year this year
Click to expand...

You would be taking an unbelievable risk betting Nebraska at Wake Forest. Can you imagine what it's like to have the biggest game of your football career on deck (hosting USC), and having to travel out to Bumfuck, North Carolina to play a team who EVERYONE thinks was a fluke last year? It's one of the worst spots of the year, in the entire nation. I could see no reason to bet Nebraska in that game unless they were a PK or a dog.
 
Thats why I said I was looking at them. Thanks linde. Really didnt even notice that yet and that should play a huge factor. Might have re think this one. Great job there
 
No problem. Honestly, I would support a Nebraska play there, if their next game held no significance. But that could kill them.
 
AFA if I can catch a TD or better and looking at a total as these 2 have avg 63 over the last 21 games

TENN if I can get less than -17

UNC would love to have any points here I will def be on UNC no matter what right now

UCLA hoping for -13 or better maybe a little too optomistic lets see

MissSt/Tulane matchup has been decided by 7 or less the L3 of 4 gms so you can see where value may be.

Florida has beaten nonconf opp by nearly 31 ppg so lets see how troy plays in week one and what kind of line we get

KSU has beaten opp by 37-10 avg in L17 openers how will the spartans fair in week one

UVA has beaten Duke on avg of 32-9 with a history of low spreads. Def ooking to play cavs here

TAMU has beaten WAC opp by 28 ppg but i would love to see -20 or better as fresno is no pushover.

TT has beaten home opening opp by 45-16 so comeon vegas gimme soemthing to work with eh?!?!?

FSU has won home openers by 31 ppg and UAB is the worst team out there.-28 or better I am al over it

Wake has lost 11 of 12 to B12 on abg of 22 ppg and Nebraska brings a very solid team. hoping for -14 or better

thats what I am looking at so far in terms of past history and trends.
 
Everyone has pretty much hit the nail on the head w/ Va Tech v LSU (except Hunt trying to down play LSU). Two great defenses, but LSU has advantages at QB (offense as a whole really), home field, and a better defense (although Va Tech has a good D)... so pretty much, LSU is a better team. I look for a LSU -7 line; I don't doubt lindetrain, but I think -9.5 is too high. Of course, the line greatly depends on the Week 1 showings of both teams.

:cheers:
 
blue...LSU may be good, but a good defense keeps you in the game. LSU has a lot of unproven guys on offense so it will be interesting to see them play week 1.
 
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