Let's get some situational/plan ahead capping.... NFL

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Hello all,

I really wanted to start this thread up a few weeks ago but if you've read the tea leaves of my posts here you know I have been at least planning Part #1 of this bet for 6-7 weeks now.

First things first, I am a Lions fan. I try to be as objective as possible and frankly sometimes the last few years I am overly protective to the wrong side. What I mean by that, I sometimes don't respect us enough.

This year has been trying for Detroit. I say that, in, we once again have the injury bug. Very frustrating. Add in we have our worst OL of the Goff in Detroit era and that's causing some issues.

STILL...

Detroit leads the league in scoring!

The defense was actually ranked #2 in pass defense entering the NY Giants game three weeks ago. That has went out the window and we've lost the best pair of safeties in football (tandem wise) and an improving corner. Simply put, this will be our demise whenever our season ends.

We also have a very up and down pass rush.

We do have Jah Gibbs though and he's on a HOF pace right now. Please stay healthy!

Saint and Jamo are cooking again and that helps out with the loss of Laporta.

Anyways, this is still a playoff caliber team. Even with a loss later today, they win out and have a 93% chance of making the playoffs. Week 18 at Soldier might be epic (could be very good or very bad!).

Anyways, this game at Sofi versus one of the very best is a huge test!

Matty Stafford is the greatest QB in Lions history and people are finally appreciating him since he went to the Rams. He's a champion and one of the toughest QBs in the game.

This Rams team is damn good. They were a few mistakes and some weird play calling away from a Super Bowl last year.

The Rams and Lions have played 3x since the trade. The Lions were 0-7 when they first played. They led 13-3 and 19-17 before finally falling at Sofi. The next two meetings were in the comfy confines of Ford Field. First was the epic wild card game and then the following season opener. Detroit won both and that's left a bad taste in Fratty's mouth.

The Rams are tied with Seattle for the division right now at 10-3. They own the tiebreaker H2H and division record, as of now.

I hate this matchup for Detroit. I think their defense gives us some issues at times and I think Fratty throws well vs this secondary. The Lions will score, because that's what they do, but so will the Rams. I think LAR controls the ball better and is likely a bit more efficient. No doubt in my mind that Stafford has this game circled. This is a statement game for Los Angeles.

Rams will something like 34-24/35-23.

Official bet posted tomorrow morning...

PART #2...

You all know I love these kind of lookahead capping situations..

Quick turnaround for the Rams as they play on Thursday night in Seattle. The Hawks will be sitting at home after today's game versus the Colts. Seattle is a healthy 2 TD favorite and should breeze to a win vs Indianapolis.

This game on TNF is huge for both the division and potentially HFA throughout the NFC playoffs. The winner here will be in prime position and have a leg up on Green Bay. The Rams won the first game back in middle of November 21-19...

Here is the boxscore for a refresher -- take a look and then we'll go over some details --

Screenshot_20251214-002330.png


A few notes --

Darnold had 4 interceptions

Kyren posted 12-91 on the ground. That is misleading though. Before the first quarter was over, three of his runs totalled 82 yards. So, the rest of the game was 9 carries, 9 yards.

As you can see, Seattle dominated the ball in this game

LA led 14-3 at the end of one quarter.

The Rams longest drive after the 1Q was 25 yards. Yes, you read that right!

To sum things up, the Rams are a very good team but they won that game despite their offense for most of the game. The Hawks defense was mighty impressive that day. Both were, in fact. I think this is a spot that the Seattle players are ready for and understand the importance of.

Seattle ML is the target..

CONCLUSION...

Ideally, the Rams coast tomorrow. I honestly hope Seattle struggles a bit at home tomorrow. That will only reinforce my opinion that they are in a lookahead.

Now, do I fear a Rams lookahead? No, I don't. This game is too big to them tomorrow. They have a score to settle after the past few meetings.

So, if tomorrow goes to plan we then play Seattle on Thursday. I personally plan on staking (to win) 2x tomorrow and 1x on Thursday.

Any questions? Let me know. Feel free to ask anything Lions, futures etc related!
 
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HUNT said:
Fuck Stafford
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Fuck Aaron Glenn truly sorry for interfering but any chance I get to take a shot at the janitor masquerading as a coach is one I'm always going to take.

Interesting thoughts on the game today and next week and while I mostly agree how can you back Darnold in a big game when we know he's a choker when the chips are on the line.
 
Alright,

So that was a success yesterday regarding the premise of this thread.

Rams ML hit, albeit now you know why I like live betting more than pregame wagers -- there was opportunity to grab LA on the cheap!

The live TT stalk was was perfect too. I'll admit, I only went one unit on my live over 33. That # was hefty and I should have stuck with my gut.

On the side, we saw the Seahawks looking ahead and were able to grab a ML on the live market as well. That certainly was living on the edge.

Don't worry, I had more action yesterday and honestly made some stupid plays - including Detroit live o34.5 but washed that with live over 64.5. I lost some stupid shit earlier in the day as well reading games incorrectly.

My point of this thread was to hopefully help a member of two (and lurkers) make some money. I def feel good when I cap out plays weeks/months ahead of time. That is the most "fun" I have handicapping...

So with that being said, we're onto PART 2!!
 
Seattle ML -108

I said Saturday night as I penned the thread to play this for half the amount of the Sunday "win". With the ML being cheap, I think I'm going with around 67% at this point and then stalk "live".

The Seahawks will be ready for this one. I expect a simple game plan for Darnold. The Lions showed you can score on this team. Although Detroit has the highest scoring offense, the Seattle team has some different weapons can help Sam out.

Playoff atmosphere will only help!

I do hate this is a Thursday though...
 
Love me some Stafford. Between Darnold and Goof, who would one want to have play QB with everything on the line? It’s not even close if you ask me.
Rams -1 makes me think Seattle is gonna be a HUGE public dog.
 
Really tough sport to situation cap since most of December will be divisional rematches. Fwiw this will likely be the first year week 18 will be insanely relevant all over.
 
KJ said:
Really tough sport to situation cap since most of December will be divisional rematches. Fwiw this will likely be the first year week 18 will be insanely relevant all over.
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I wouldn't go that far.

5-6 games will have big implications, about the same as the last few years.
 
B.A.R. said:
Seattle ML -108

I said Saturday night as I penned the thread to play this for half the amount of the Sunday "win". With the ML being cheap, I think I'm going with around 67% at this point and then stalk "live".

The Seahawks will be ready for this one. I expect a simple game plan for Darnold. The Lions showed you can score on this team. Although Detroit has the highest scoring offense, the Seattle team has some different weapons can help Sam out.

Playoff atmosphere will only help!

I do hate this is a Thursday though..
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From everything I’ve read about your capping of this situation from the these two weeks I think it being a Thursday game potentially could put your situational play on steroids with the hawks being at home…really have enjoyed your analysis of this situation as a whole, thank you for the write ups and posting…I’ve already made more than a few bucks on it…think it could be hawks in a comfortable game here
 
Market Derived line on a neutral field is LAR -1/2. I give 2.15 to home team so this basically should be Seattle -1.5. Looking at their first meeting, Seattle looked awfully good besides at the QB position. I'm already tailing but talk me out of a large Seattle bet here @B.A.R. lol
 
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Loves2kickass said:
Market Derived line on a neutral field is LAR -1/2. I give 2.15 to home team so this basically should be Seattle -1.5. Looking at their first meeting, Seattle looked awfully good besides at the QB position. I'm already tailing but talk me out of a large Seattle bet here @B.A.R. lol
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In their last meeting in week 11 the line was LAR -3 @ home. I guess the books are giving the home team about the 2 points since this line opened Rams -1? This is a total situational play.
 
One weird thing to note is for years now Seattle has played better on the road vs home even though that stadium is one of loudest in nfl. 2 of their 3 losses this year at home. That being said like Seattle. I don't see how Adams plays though they said game time decision. And 1st game Seattle had 4 fg and 4 to and only lost by 2.
 
My biggest problems with going big on Seattle this week:

- The Darnold Big Game factor
- The offense has been starting slowly/sputtering going on 3 weeks now. No TDs at all last week. No TDs in the first half the week before vs Atl, and no TDs until the 4th qtr the week before that vs Minnesota.
- The man down/team rises up theory with Davante Adams
- The passing game has shortened up, which is putting more pressure on the run game. Last 5 weeks Darnold is throwing 7.2 yards per attempt, which is still decent league-wide but nowhere near the explosiveness they had through the first 9 games (an astounding 9.9 yards per attempt).
- They've lost to Baker, Purdy and Stafford. The best QBs they've beaten are Lawrence, Rodgers with 1 game under his belt, Stroud with 2-3 Houston, and Daniels returning from a knee injury. The rest of the QBs were Rattler, Kyler, Brisset, Cam Ward, Max Brosmer, Kirk Cousins and Phillip Rivers. I wish the Cowboys had that schedule, they might still be in the hunt (who am I kidding lol).
 
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Gandolf said:
My biggest problems with going big on Seattle this week:

- The Darnold Big Game factor
- The offense has been starting slowly/sputtering going on 3 weeks now. No TDs at all last week. No TDs in the first half the week before vs Atl, and no TDs until the 4th qtr the week before that vs Minnesota.
- The man down/team rises up theory with Davante Adams
- The passing game has shortened up, which is putting more pressure on the run game. Last 5 weeks Darnold is throwing 7.2 yards per attempt, which is still decent league-wide but nowhere near the explosiveness they had through the first 9 games (an astounding 9.9 yards per attempt).
- They've lost to Baker, Purdy and Stafford. The best QBs they've beaten are Lawrence, Rodgers with 1 game under his belt, Stroud with 2-3 Houston, and Daniels returning from a knee injury. The rest of the QBs were Rattler, Kyler, Brisset, Cam Ward, Max Brosmer, Kirk Cousins and Phillip Rivers. I wish the Cowboys had that schedule, they might still be in the hunt (who am I kidding lol).
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Appreciate this post...

Ill add, much like last year with the Vikings, Darnold is slowly coming back to earth as the season progresses.

They definitely are relying more on that nasty defense and run game now.

Plus, JSN.
 
Gandolf said:
My biggest problems with going big on Seattle this week:

- The Darnold Big Game factor
- The offense has been starting slowly/sputtering going on 3 weeks now. No TDs at all last week. No TDs in the first half the week before vs Atl, and no TDs until the 4th qtr the week before that vs Minnesota.
- The man down/team rises up theory with Davante Adams
- The passing game has shortened up, which is putting more pressure on the run game. Last 5 weeks Darnold is throwing 7.2 yards per attempt, which is still decent league-wide but nowhere near the explosiveness they had through the first 9 games (an astounding 9.9 yards per attempt).
- They've lost to Baker, Purdy and Stafford. The best QBs they've beaten are Lawrence, Rodgers with 1 game under his belt, Stroud with 2-3 Houston, and Daniels returning from a knee injury. The rest of the QBs were Rattler, Kyler, Brisset, Cam Ward, Max Brosmer, Kirk Cousins and Phillip Rivers. I wish the Cowboys had that schedule, they might still be in the hunt (who am I kidding lol).
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And you all know my theories about star players being out. I don't know if Davante qualifies here -- but always something to think about.
 
Lexington 125 said:
Love this thread. Helped push me over on rams lw


Correct me if I’m wrong but I think every divisional dog has covered on Thursdays this year.
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Glad I can contribute, I owe a few of you this year.

As I said earlier in the thread, my plan was to be on LAR Sunday at 2x the about (to win) as this game. So, if we follow that plan we've already won.

I did up that a bit when I submitted my play, just due to value.
 
Loves2kickass said:
In their last meeting in week 11 the line was LAR -3 @ home. I guess the books are giving the home team about the 2 points since this line opened Rams -1? This is a total situational play.
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So yeah that's definitely why I was a bit confused. I expected to be laying 120/125/130 at least, on the Hawks ML.

With the Rams laying 3 back just over a month ago, I think many would have just expected that number to be flipped and then maybe a slight adjustment.

Again, take away that early fast start and Seattle controller the game at SoFi.

I'll repeat, the Rams LONGEST drive after the first quarter was 25 yards.
 
Loves2kickass said:
Market Derived line on a neutral field is LAR -1/2. I give 2.15 to home team so this basically should be Seattle -1.5. Looking at their first meeting, Seattle looked awfully good besides at the QB position. I'm already tailing but talk me out of a large Seattle bet here @B.A.R. lol
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Tough to talk you out of much. I think if you're looking for any reasons our guy @Gandolf laid out the contra position pretty well!

I've talked about how huge this game is for Seattle. It's just as big for the Rams. A win here basically seals the division (unless they shit the bed the final two weeks). That basically could be the bye as well.

Still, a lot to decide but the winner here is in great position.
 
Nothing to do with the bet tomorrow but looking at the NFC West ..

Division Records:

SF 4-1
LAR 3-1
SEA 2-2

Conference Records:

SF 8-2
LAR 6-3
SEA 6-3

Rams finish with...

At Atlanta and home to Arizona

Seahawks finish with ...

Road games at Carolina and San Francisco

Niners finish with...

MNF @ Indy and then home games vs Chicago and Seattle


So, Monday night is huge as well. If the Seahawks win tomorrow and SF goes into Indy and wins, things become pretty interesting! I believe that would mean SF controls their own destiny? They win the division tiebreaker and conference tiebreaker. That means a Chicago loss too ..

So, I BELIEVE, we have a shot at a Niners #1 seed still.

Fantastic finish in the West. Reminiscent of the North last season.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Didn't Sean McVay also just have a kid this week? Not a father myself, but isn't that kind of a distraction?
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lowered paternal testosterone. recovers faster the more kids u have. not sure if its his first. but we may see some tears. Gettler LT, McDade TW, Feranil AB, Kuzawa CW. Longitudinal evidence that fatherhood decreases testosterone in human males. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Sep 27;108(39):16194-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1105403108. Epub 2011 Sep 12. PMID: 21911391; PMCID: PMC3182719.
 
Gandolf said:
Detailed weather forecasts, testosterone level analysis....this thread delivers.

Do we have astrological charts on the two QBs
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The Rams open unsteady, as King of Cups reversed shows emotional imbalance or early mistakes. Seattle stays composed, with Nine of Wands reflecting poise and battle-tested focus at home.

In Q2, the Seahawks ignite… The Lovers sparks chemistry and momentum.The Rams adjust, as King of Swords shows calculated, disciplined response.

The second half is a battle. The Rams face Judgement in the 4th, but Ten of Cups reversed as their outcome suggests disharmony or heartbreak… they likely fall short.

Seattle’s Six of Swords shows they navigate the storm and reach their destination, walking out with the win.
 
Loves2kickass said:
The Rams open unsteady, as King of Cups reversed shows emotional imbalance or early mistakes. Seattle stays composed, with Nine of Wands reflecting poise and battle-tested focus at home.

In Q2, the Seahawks ignite… The Lovers sparks chemistry and momentum.The Rams adjust, as King of Swords shows calculated, disciplined response.

The second half is a battle. The Rams face Judgement in the 4th, but Ten of Cups reversed as their outcome suggests disharmony or heartbreak… they likely fall short.

Seattle’s Six of Swords shows they navigate the storm and reach their destination, walking out with the win.
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Finally got the copy link to work. Let's throw out some cards.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2001749606129180998
 
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