Learn me... After 14 weeks what do we know?

[B.A.R.]

Actually got to see some football today.

I'm on a Benadryl so just some quickies...

-MCDC is awful. He has heart but he's brutal at game management.

-SF dline ate all day yet Joey B got that to OT. Impressive both ways.

-Buffalo not running a designed RB rush in the 1h is mighty impressive. The strategy worked tho, TB was caught off guard in 3rd on that very first rush (lol 29 yds).

-Early Xmas gifts tonight for live bettors SNF

-The hardest the Giants tried today was the last 5 minutes

 

[wiseplayer]

Every better team won today that meant anything. Next week will be the most difficult week to cap because of the matchups

 

[Big daddy naught]

Buffalo is going no where. They can’t run nor stop the run.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Baker Mayfield had been inflicted with injuries and accordingly slumping. He got himself back on track with an efficient outing this week.

Backing Tennessee under Vrabel after a bye week is most definitely a thing.

Kamara is back in business.

Rashaad Penny seems ready to take over the starting job in Seattle

 

[skanless13]

Buffalo is going no where. They can’t run nor stop the run.

Yeah. I’m finally off them. Takes me awhile to learn lol. And if Allen misses a couple games, they are done. Crazy.

 

[skanless13]

Actually got to see some football today.

I'm on a Benadryl so just some quickies...

-MCDC is awful. He has heart but he's brutal at game management.

-SF dline ate all day yet Joey B got that to OT. Impressive both ways.

-Buffalo not running a designed RB rush in the 1h is mighty impressive. The strategy worked tho, TB was caught off guard in 3rd on that very first rush (lol 29 yds).

-Early Xmas gifts tonight for live bettors SNF

-The hardest the Giants tried today was the last 5 minutes

MCDC?

 

[VirginiaCavs]

MCDC?

Motor City Dan Campbell. I had to google it. Thought BAR was trying to tell us about how he dreamt that ACDC was playing quarterback

 

[scarf31]

Zach Wilson has proved to be the worst QB in the sport. Kid cannot hit dump offs, screens and misses an INSANE amount of the easy throws. Total and complete bust. Perfect for the worst franchise in the sport…at least the Lions try hard.

 

[Gandolf]

A couple of weeks ago @Joe Public noted that some teams would start realizing that their season was over. This week was a demarcation line for the books between teams playing hard every week and teams playing out the string. There was easy money to be had this week that probably won't be there next week.

What do these games have in common?

Pitt 28 Min 36 (Minny -3.5)
Balt 22 Cle 24 (Cle -3)
Dall 27 Wash 20 (Dal -6.5)
SF 26 Cinc 23 (SF -2.5)
Buff 27 Tampa 33 (Tampa -3.5)

All furious comebacks that fell short? Sure. But why did comebacks happen here and not in these games?

Jax 0 Tenn 20 (Titans -8.5)
NO 30 Jets 9 (Saints -4.5)
Sea 33 Hou 13 (Sea -9.5)
Giants 21 LAC 37 (LAC -9)
Det 10 Den 38 (Den -12.5, opened -7.5)

I think you understand why. The top set had both teams still in contention for the playoffs. The bottom set the losers were out of contention (and Seattle too but Russ isn't a quitter). And look at those lines! For all of them you could've gotten away with laying less than 10! Unfortunately you will not see that again this year. So it'll be necessary to start picking off the next tier teams as they fall out of contention.

Three teams to start looking at in that respect played in the 3 games I didn't list:
Atl 29 Car 21 - Panthers have now fallen to 5-8 and still have Cam to QB but don't have CMAC. Next week they go to Buffalo and the line is already 11.5. Falcons by the way are the only dog that won SU this week. Which makes me worried about Arizona tonight.

LV 9 KC 48 - The Raiders are technically still in the hunt but their dysfunction has caught up with them. They might have one hurrah left in them at Cleveland next week, especially if Waller returns.

Chi 30 GB 45 - Did you see Allen Robinson kinda half assing an end zone jump ball at the end of the game? They had their manhood to play for against the guy who owns them and they still fell short. Next week they get the Vikings, a team that still wants to win but really doesn't know how to do it consistently.

BE WARY OF NEXT WEEK. FAVORITES ARE 11-2 THIS WEEK. Next week figures to be difficult.

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1470390675359379456

 

[2daBank]

I should have sold my bills stock last week w everyone else. I can’t believe these sorry clowns had the nerve to act proud of themselves in the post game presser: You proud you came out and no showed the 1st half? You proud you came back, whoopty fucking do. So you come back just to get ball 1st in ot and look like the same trash who started the game! “Here ya go mr goat, go ahead and show us how to win a game since we clearly don’t have the 1st damn clue how to beat a good team”!! 0-5 now in 1 score games, 0-4 vs teams with winning record. Way to go boys, be proud that you didn’t just quit! You did the bare minimum! Lmfao, you losers are def 1 and done and only reason you getting in playoffs cause schedule so soft.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

I should have sold my bills stock last week w everyone else. I can’t believe these sorry clowns had the nerve to act proud of themselves in the post game presser: You proud you came out and no showed the 1st half? You proud you came back, whoopty fucking do. So you come back just to get ball 1st in ot and look like the same trash who started the game! “Here ya go mr goat, go ahead and show us how to win a game since we clearly don’t have the 1st damn clue how to beat a good team”!! 0-5 now in 1 score games, 0-4 vs teams with winning record. Way to go boys, be proud that you didn’t just quit! You did the bare minimum! Lmfao, you losers are def 1 and done and only reason you getting in playoffs cause schedule so soft.

Damn Banky you should be a motivational speaker. I‘m about ready to yell at Josh Allen myself. Fuck you Buffalo!

 

[2daBank]

Damn Banky you should be a motivational speaker. I‘m about ready to yell at Josh Allen myself. Fuck you Buffalo!

A shit day in nfl where every big dog rolls over and gets clobbered this was only chance for a good game and they proud of themself for playing a good half against mostly prevent defense!

 

[2daBank]

I got news for ya bills while you acting all proud, hardly anybody even saw all your fight, I know I stopped watching at halftime!!

 

[PaintCrew]

All I know is the magic number is now down to 1 for my only oversized NFL wager of the year thanks to @B.A.R. . Should be poppin' some bottles to celebrate the U5 RSW Lions winner next week

 

[2daBank]

Damn Banky you should be a motivational speaker. I‘m about ready to yell at Josh Allen myself. Fuck you Buffalo!

Mfers have to have their qb run for 100 yards cause they incapable of running or stopping the run, these losers nothing close to as advertised. At least I was smart enough to be on pats bandwagon all year

 

[B.A.R.]

All I know is the magic number is now down to 1 for my only oversized NFL wager of the year thanks to @B.A.R. . Should be poppin' some bottles to celebrate the U5 RSW Lions winner next week

Yes, we get the Cards on a short week coming into what should be a dismal atmosphere in Detroit.

Champagne and Caviar all around!

 

[2daBank]

That kid playing d in dallas is a bad mofo! Jerry lucked into that draft pick, have we seen a better rookie defensive player since LT than parsons? He is a straight up game changer!

 

[2daBank]

Now with Lawrence and Gregory (what a play he made on that pick!) Dallas might really be for real. The head coach still a moron and I still say the offense is much better on PlayStation than real life but that d can win games. Diggs was amazing on mclaurin also.

 

[number2]

Zach Wilson has proved to be the worst QB in the sport. Kid cannot hit dump offs, screens and misses an INSANE amount of the easy throws. Total and complete bust. Perfect for the worst franchise in the sport…at least the Lions try hard.

Think Joe Namath sold the Jets soul with his Super Bowl 3 Guranteed……….

Gotta give the kid few more years……we can’t be starting Rookie QB’s every year.

 

[number2]

Saw some tweet regarding the Manning Bros on Monday night.

Players that show up on the show, Their team loses straight up next week.
Gronk, Stadfford , Brady and I forgot who else….crazy stats. The tweet was from end of October. So not sure what the record is now…..

 

[Big daddy naught]

Think Joe Namath sold the Jets soul with his Super Bowl 3 Guranteed……….

Gotta give the kid few more years……we can’t be starting Rookie QB’s every year.

Agree too soon to tell. The team is a dumpster but not a fan

 

[2daBank]

Zach Wilson has proved to be the worst QB in the sport. Kid cannot hit dump offs, screens and misses an INSANE amount of the easy throws. Total and complete bust. Perfect for the worst franchise in the sport…at least the Lions try hard.

Lmfao. Don’t say that to loudly around here, we have a certain someone who thinks he the next great 1!! Surely none of it was Wilson fault!!

 

[Gandolf]

That kid playing d in dallas is a bad mofo! Jerry lucked into that draft pick, have we seen a better rookie defensive player since LT than parsons? He is a straight up game changer!

Not sure how they lucked into it......I suppose they might've taken Surtain if he had dropped to 12, and he would've been just fine. The next team to go defensive last draft was Arizona at #16. Holy jesus imagine if they had gotten Parsons.

The dirty secret is that Jerruh's crew is much better at drafting than their reputation suggests. Whether that means the other guys in the room are going against Jerry's suggestions or what part Jerry actually play at this point, I don't know and really don't care.

I just know that this year's #1 is a stud. Last year's #1 is a stud (Lamb), Last year's #2 is a stud (Diggs). 2019 paid for Cooper, which has worked. 2018 #1 is LVE, which is OK. You have to go back to 2017 to find a flat out miss in Taco Charlton (and TJ Watt went two picks later).

When you hit homers at the top of your draft board for 3 or 4 years, and you can backfill with a couple of serviceable Day 3 picks each year, your team will get good.

 

[Gandolf]

Now with Lawrence and Gregory (what a play he made on that pick!) Dallas might really be for real. The head coach still a moron and I still say the offense is much better on PlayStation than real life but that d can win games. Diggs was amazing on mclaurin also.

It's been awhile since I was more comfortable with the D being on the field than the O, but yesterday was one of those days. With those three healthy they're going to be a wrecking ball against more than just the East. Dak needs to get his head right though. Something is off in his ability to recognize what's happening, he's been just a little late on plays.

 

[twinkie13]

Zach Wilson has proved to be the worst QB in the sport. Kid cannot hit dump offs, screens and misses an INSANE amount of the easy throws. Total and complete bust. Perfect for the worst franchise in the sport…at least the Lions try hard.

Obviously watched the whole thing yesterday

He is awful

 

[twinkie13]

A couple of weeks ago @Joe Public noted that some teams would start realizing that their season was over. This week was a demarcation line for the books between teams playing hard every week and teams playing out the string. There was easy money to be had this week that probably won't be there next week.

What do these games have in common?

Pitt 28 Min 36 (Minny -3.5)
Balt 22 Cle 24 (Cle -3)
Dall 27 Wash 20 (Dal -6.5)
SF 26 Cinc 23 (SF -2.5)
Buff 27 Tampa 33 (Tampa -3.5)

All furious comebacks that fell short? Sure. But why did comebacks happen here and not in these games?

Jax 0 Tenn 20 (Titans -8.5)
NO 30 Jets 9 (Saints -4.5)
Sea 33 Hou 13 (Sea -9.5)
Giants 21 LAC 37 (LAC -9)
Det 10 Den 38 (Den -12.5, opened -7.5)

I think you understand why. The top set had both teams still in contention for the playoffs. The bottom set the losers were out of contention (and Seattle too but Russ isn't a quitter). And look at those lines! For all of them you could've gotten away with laying less than 10! Unfortunately you will not see that again this year. So it'll be necessary to start picking off the next tier teams as they fall out of contention.

Three teams to start looking at in that respect played in the 3 games I didn't list:
Atl 29 Car 21 - Panthers have now fallen to 5-8 and still have Cam to QB but don't have CMAC. Next week they go to Buffalo and the line is already 11.5. Falcons by the way are the only dog that won SU this week. Which makes me worried about Arizona tonight.

LV 9 KC 48 - The Raiders are technically still in the hunt but their dysfunction has caught up with them. They might have one hurrah left in them at Cleveland next week, especially if Waller returns.

Chi 30 GB 45 - Did you see Allen Robinson kinda half assing an end zone jump ball at the end of the game? They had their manhood to play for against the guy who owns them and they still fell short. Next week they get the Vikings, a team that still wants to win but really doesn't know how to do it consistently.

BE WARY OF NEXT WEEK. FAVORITES ARE 11-2 THIS WEEK. Next week figures to be difficult.

Books got lit up

 

[B.A.R.]

View attachment 60409

 

[EL CAPO]

Obviously watched the whole thing yesterday

He is awful

crazy thing is the Jet's offense is competent with Flacco or Mike White. .....the OC isn't half bad, they usually score first few series off gameplan. Lots of presnap motion, spread formations, better O than the Jags and Texans for sure.

Game this week with Dolphins is going to be interesting because last game Flores coming off the Baltimore win just did cover 0 blitz against flacco and flacco burnt him bad until the 4th quarter when flores finally changed it up......would think adjustments favor miami this game. Big part of me says why not continue to fade the jets ? easy money. But dolphins didn't exactly move it easy on the jets. They can't run the ball. Prbly an under play for me.

 

[Gandolf]

The Bengals busted their ass on the back of Joe Cool the entire 4th quarter to tie the game against the Niners. Then they win the toss, and Burrow gets them quickly to the Niner 26 thanks to big throws to Higgins and Uzomah. The Niners defense is reeling and Burrow is up to 348 yards passing.

So what does Zac Taylor do? He takes the foot off the gas pedal and runs it twice with Mixon, who on the day was averaging 3.2 yards/carry. Naturally Mixon gets 3 and 4 yards, setting up a 3rd and 3. The Bengals fail to convert, as they failed 9 times on 13 attempts that day. Burrow for the day was hitting on 74% of his throws, with no picks, yet Taylor chose the lower production run game to set up their struggling third down playcalls right as they were in position to steal a much needed win. He took the ball away from his best player and the momentum away from his own team! #badcoaching

 

[2daBank]

It's been awhile since I was more comfortable with the D being on the field than the O, but yesterday was one of those days. With those three healthy they're going to be a wrecking ball against more than just the East. Dak needs to get his head right though. Something is off in his ability to recognize what's happening, he's been just a little late on plays.

I have no faith whatsoever in the offense. We know mccarthy a boob and I’m not all that impressed by the oc everyone loves. They should be straight lighting teams up with all that talent, a good ol, and a qb making that kind of money, when they not running the ball dak been ass imo. That defense is nasty tho!

 

[VirginiaCavs]

crazy thing is the Jet's offense is competent with Flacco or Mike White. .....the OC isn't half bad, they usually score first few series off gameplan. Lots of presnap motion, spread formations, better O than the Jags and Texans for sure.

Game this week with Dolphins is going to be interesting because last game Flores coming off the Baltimore win just did cover 0 blitz against flacco and flacco burnt him bad until the 4th quarter when flores finally changed it up......would think adjustments favor miami this game. Big part of me says why not continue to fade the jets ? easy money. But dolphins didn't exactly move it easy on the jets. They can't run the ball. Prbly an under play for me.

I think the Bills figured out White by taking away all of White's short passing...0 TD and 4 INT in that game for White, I'd think other teams simply follow the same gameplan.

Wilson is definitely a regression from Flacco. I think he'll throw a few picks against that Dolphin defense also the Jets relied heavily on Elijah Moore in that game but he is on ER. Thinking this time Jets struggle to reach 10 (as opposed to hitting 17) while i'm not sure what changes for Miami.

 

[booksbestfriend]

I have no faith whatsoever in the offense. We know mccarthy a boob and I’m not all that impressed by the oc everyone loves. They should be straight lighting teams up with all that talent, a good ol, and a qb making that kind of money, when they not running the ball dak been ass imo. That defense is nasty tho!

Who you gonna run with? Zeke can't get more than 3 yads.

 

[HUNT]

This rookie qb class is suspect except for Fields. Don't know about Lance yet. Lawrence is one of the worst of all time against the blitz statistically this year.

Wilson was a media propoganda machine.

 

[booksbestfriend]

This rookie qb class is suspect except for Fields. Don't know about Lance yet. Lawrence is one of the worst of all time against the blitz statistically this year.

Wilson was a media propoganda machine.

Joking right...Mac is killing it.

 

[bones]

Is Trevor Lawrence bad, as in really bad? Matt Leinart/Mark Sanchez/Joey Harrington/Heath Shuler/Ryan Leaf bad? I think he may be

 

[VirginiaCavs]

This is Trevor Lawrence's advanced metrics:

PASSING OPPORTUNITY

TEAM PASS PLAYS PER GAME	GAME SCRIPT	ATTEMPTS	RED ZONE ATTEMPTS	DEEP BALL ATTEMPTS	SUPPORTING CAST EFFICIENCY	PROTECTION RATE
35.7 (2.12 pace)	-8.53	426 (35.5 p/g)	36 (3.0 p/g)	42 (3.5 p/g)	-8.29	81.9%
#14	#31	#8	#25	#19	#31	#19

PASSING PRODUCTIVITY

PASSING YARDS	AIR YARDS	COMPLETED AIR YARDS	MONEY THROWS	DANGER PLAYS	INTERCEPTABLE PASSES	PASSING TDS
2514 (209.5 p/g)	3236 (269.7 p/g)	1287 (107.3 p/g)	22	32	34	9 (2.1% rate)
#21	#10	#22	#12	#4	#1	#28

EFFICIENCY

YARDS PER ATTEMPT	AIR YARDS PER ATTEMPT	ADJUSTED YARDS PER ATTEMPT	ACCURACY RATING	BEST BALL POINTS ADDED	FANTASY POINTS PER DROPBACK	FANTASY POINTS PER GAME
5.9	7.6	5.0	7.0	4.2 (0.4 p/g)	0.35	13.2
#36	#21	#32	#34	#32	#33	#30

EFFICIENCY

TRUE COMPLETION %	PLAY-ACTION COMPLETION %	RED ZONE COMPLETION %	DEEP BALL COMPLETION %	PRESSURED COMPLETION %	CLEAN POCKET COMPLETION PERCENTAGE	CATCHABLE PASS RATE
62.8%	61.1%	47.2%	33.3%	28.9%	66.6%	70.9%
#35	#21	#28	#23	#36	#31	#31

EFFICIENCY

PRODUCTION PREMIUM	EXPECTED POINTS ADDED (EPA)	TRUE PASSER RATING	TOTAL QBR	RECEIVER TARGET SEPARATION	RECEIVER YAC PER TARGET	DROPPED PASSES
-8.9	-5.8	52.7	33.7	1.44	2.84	26 (2.17 p/g)
#31	#61	#36	#28	#60	#68	#6

 

[Zeke]

Is Trevor Lawrence bad, as in really bad? Matt Leinart/Mark Sanchez/Joey Harrington/Heath Shuler/Ryan Leaf bad? I think he may be

Funny that 4/5 you mentioned are from the PAC 12.

 

[B.A.R.]

Joking right...Mac is killing it.

He loves Mac, think he's already moved him up to 2nd year or better status.

 

[HUNT]

Joking right...Mac is killing it.

Oops. Sans Mac.

 

[HUNT]

Is Trevor Lawrence bad, as in really bad? Matt Leinart/Mark Sanchez/Joey Harrington/Heath Shuler/Ryan Leaf bad? I think he may be

Time will tell but look at those metrics above.

 

[HUNT]

He loves Mac, think he's already moved him up to 2nd year or better status.

He's in my superbowl. You're right.

 

[B.A.R.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1470393073934946304

 

[skanless13]

Motor City Dan Campbell. I had to google it. Thought BAR was trying to tell us about how he dreamt that ACDC was playing quarterback

Yeah, I figured it had something to do with the Lions, but at that late hour my brain wasn’t having it.

 

[skanless13]

Zach Wilson has proved to be the worst QB in the sport. Kid cannot hit dump offs, screens and misses an INSANE amount of the easy throws. Total and complete bust. Perfect for the worst franchise in the sport…at least the Lions try hard.

He’s actually pretty bad. Some of the throws he misses are ridiculous

 

[skanless13]

Rams showed some heart and life today, of course after I jump off them as my Superbowl pick. Arizona confirmed my thoughts that they’re not quite ready for Superbowl run. I know it’s just one game, but something seemed off about then and Kyler tonight.

 

[skanless13]

This rookie qb class is suspect except for Fields. Don't know about Lance yet. Lawrence is one of the worst of all time against the blitz statistically this year.

Wilson was a media propoganda machine.

Excepting Mac for sure. Also, don’t know if we can really judge Lawrence given that he is playing in probably the most dysfunctional environment with the most dysfunctional in-over-his-head coach there is. You could put some amalgamation if Mahomes, Brady, and Rodgers there and he’d still be something like 7 of 55 for 83 yards with 1 TD and 8 INTs/game.

BTW, does my (correct?) use of the word amalgamation get me a paid position here at CTG?

 

[wiseplayer]

Not sure if I’ve ever seen a QB look like Tom Brady 1 game and look worse than Jared Goof the next but if Stafford gets hott, things could get interesting. Especially if they use their very capable running game.

 

[Big daddy naught]

Not sure if I’ve ever seen a QB look like Tom Brady 1 game and look worse than Jared Goof the next but if Stafford gets hott, things could get interesting. Especially if they use their very capable running game.

That’s the problem. You never know which one you’re gonna get

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Rams showed some heart and life today, of course after I jump off them as my Superbowl pick. Arizona confirmed my thoughts that they’re not quite ready for Superbowl run. I know it’s just one game, but something seemed off about then and Kyler tonight.

I can‘t believe D-Hop produces so little