ksimpsc week 10

ksimpsc

ksimpsc

Pretty much a regular
Week 1 side 9-9-1 ... totals 2-1... 2H 1-1... teaz/par 1-0... net 13-11 +0.34u
Week 2 side 13-5 ... totals 8-7... 2H 0-1... teaz/par 0-3... net 21-16 +7.7u
Week 3 side 10-5... totals 7-6... 2H 1-0... teaz/par 0-4... net 18-15 +7.14u
Week 4 side 12-7... totals 11-16... 2H 2-0... teaz/par 3-7... net 28-30 -0.78u
Week 5 side 15-12-1... totals 7-9... 2H 1-4... teaz/par 2-3... net 25-28 -4.14u
Week 6 side 14-8... totals 5-10... 2H 1-3... teaz/par 0-1... net 20-22 +0.7u
Week 7 side 14-11... totals 16-5... 2H 2-3... teaz/par 1-3... net 32-22 +22.7u
Week 8 side 8-9-1... totals 13-9... 2H 1-2... teaz/par 3-5... net 25-25 +3.68u
Week 9 side 19-13-1... totals 14-13... 2H 0-1... teaz/par 1-11... net 34-38-1 +0.76u
Season side 114-79-4... totals 83-76... 2H 9-15... teaz/par 11-37... net 217-207-3 +38.1u


locked-1u unless noted
2u Utah -7
2u Utah -4 1H
2u Utah -175 1q
1.5u Miss +3.5
VT -2.5, +110, +7
.5u VT +125
CSU -2.5
Arizona +7.5
FAU -9.5
GT -9
Maryland pk
UTSA -4
Clemson -7
Florida +3.5
NMSU -9
WMU -6.5
SCar +24.5
ND -13
App St -9.5
Army +7
Arkansas -24
UMASS +31.5
sdsu -23.5
Nebraska pk
SouMiss +7
.5u SouMiss +225
Utah St +4
.5u Utah St +162
Texas +7
.5u Texas +235
.5u Vandy -12

2u Utah TT O31.5
2u Utah TT 1H O16.5
1.5u FAU/Marshall U64
BG/Kent U50
MiaOH/Ohio U54
NIU/Toledo U56
Illi/Purdue U48
OhioSt/Iowa U52
Army/AFA U60
CSU/Wyo O52
Cinci/Tulane U54.5
UCF/SMU O74
Wake/ND U56
WKU/Vandy O52
SouMiss/Tenn U48.5
NMSU/TxSt O56
LSU/Bama U48.5
UTEP/MTSU O47
Colo/AzSt U58
Colo/AzSt 1H U30
SCar/UGA 1H U24.5
OSU/Iowa 1H U27
SMiss/Tenn 1H U24.5
ECU/Houston O62
Houston TT O43.5
Arizona TT O34.5
SCar TT 1H O3.5
SDSU TT O37
SDSU TT 1H O20.5

2H BG/Kent U24 -115

3u 4team 13pt Clemson +6, UCF -0.5, ND pk, Fresno St -2
2u 2team 6.5pt Utah -0.5, Clemson -0.5
2u 4team 13pt Utah +6, Clemson +6, SCar +36.5, ND -1.5
4team 13pt Auburn -1.5, Vandy +0.5, Vandy/WKU O41.5, SouMiss +20
4team 13pt SCar +36.5, UtahSt +17, SouMiss +20, VT +16
4team 13pt Auburn -1.5, UMass +46.5, Vandy +0.5, Florida +14.5
2team 6.5pt NMSU -2.5, WMU pk
2team 6pt Navy -2, Clemson -1

.5u parlay Florida, NMSU, Clemson, Utah St, UTSA to win 5.84u
 
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He Hate Me said:
I can't believe that the Hokies are now 2.5 point favorites. Good luck.
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Not a big fan of the card this week. I like a lot of road favorites which is probably a recipe for disaster. I wanted to be on VT here. I would have waited but assumed the line would not flip back. I could be very wrong.
 
s--k said:
Were you at the 2010 Alabama game?
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Yes, I actually was at that game. Guess I am dating myself but that was one of my first years in college. Amazing time to come through the program as a student because in my youth the program was an absolute joke. I actually had a big assembly class with Garcia. He was a big idiot.
 
ksimpsc said:
Yes, I actually was at that game. Guess I am dating myself but that was one of my first years in college. Amazing time to come through the program as a student because in my youth the program was an absolute joke. I actually had a big assembly class with Garcia. He was a big idiot.
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Haha. Cool.

You probably know me with dogs...I'm looking between the hedges Saturday...Caught your comments in CK's thread and know you don't like it.
 
s--k said:
Haha. Cool.

You probably know me with dogs...I'm looking between the hedges Saturday...Caught your comments in CK's thread and know you don't like it.
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I will have recap and thoughts up in a bit. Will be nothing to your standard but will throw in my two cents. You should go watch Bentley and Muschamp comments after the game. The mindset they are taking would probably fuel your fire. Let's just say whatever the result Saturday is will not be for lack of effort.
 
Recap of Vandy Game:

Opening Drive TD for Vandy with answering opening drive from SC (6plays, 4plays)
followed by a handful of punts
TD Cocks aided by bad roughing call on a punt (10 plays)
couple of punts then TD by Vandy aided by a sketchy overturn of a no catch call PAT blocked (6 plays)
TD SC Vandy penalty on 3rd and 5 then 36 yard bomb (5 plays)
Vandy INT in own RZ but held to FG
Half

Missed FG from 29yl
Vandy TD - PI on Fenton where he intercepted the ball and ran it back TD next play 36 yards (4 plays)
TD Cocks well orchestrated drive (8 plays)
Vandy turnover on downs 4th and 6 @ SC35
SC FG 39y 10 plays
Vandy TD 14 plays four 3rd down conversions on the drive including a PI on third and 10
Gamecocks punt after Turner up the middle loss 2, Bently complete to turner for 2, Bently Complete to Hayden for 6 punt to Vandy 33
Vandy drive with 3 minutes on the clock and 3 TO fell short at the SC 45 where they went incomplete on third and fourth to end the game.

Nobody probably gives a shit to read a scoring recap of this crap game but I had to go back and watch some of it and get a recap down to see what the hell happened. When SC was up 14 I felt like the game was in the bag. Obviously Vandy was having success in the game on offense but it did not look like we could be stopped either. Then we get in that position again like Tennesee where we are punting to them with time and they try a drive down field to tie the game.

I HATED the series before the punt and final vandy drive. AJ Turner up the middle, weak screen to AJ, tried for first down with Hayden and happy to punt it off only burning about a minute off the clock. If Roper wants to have a certain style I am not going to begrudge him for that in the long run, but this conservative bend-dont-break attitude is such a joke. A team with a sack would run the offense normal and get a couple first down and end the game, but he is content running two awful plays on first and second and then rolling the dice on third to Hayden and then fine settling for the defense to come up with a stop. He is just extremely lucky he has not been bit in the ass doing that. The offense on the team is good in SPITE of Roper. The talent is there obviously, but if Muschamp is going to tie himself to this wagon it may be a short stay here. I have 0 faith he would ever part ways with Roper especially in a year we are overperforming but there is a strong correlation in CFB to scoring points and winning consitently. I would also have 0 faith in Muschamp making a successful OC hire (baffling that hiring a good OC is Muschamps crux when there are coaches out there that can't do the basics right)

I was feeling all game long that we were the right side in that affair but honestly Roper must be taken account of. Any time this season we have had a 14 point lead he stops calling plays that are worth a damn, but for some reason is also really bad at burning clock. So at the end of the day I will take my units won even if they are less than deserved.
 
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UGA game

I was thinking that the line would come out closer to 20 or 21. 25 does seem like a very high line. I alluded to Bentley and Muschamp's comments after the game. Nobody on the team seemed to really care about winning 6 games and bowl eligibility. They are just expecting it at this point. That is refreshing to hear as that air of Success was something Spurrier instilled within the culture, but then let slip through his grasp with the complacency of the recruiting (and coaching staff)

I do think you will see maximum effort out of the Gamecocks and I do think that Muschamp will gameplan this fairly well. Will that be enough? UGA average margin of victory is 30 in SEC games, none of which are particularly amazing SEC teams but neither are the Cocks. Fromm only attempted 7 passes against Florida and has only attempted an average of 17 a game all season long.

The reason I was so down on SC coming into this game was really turned up after watching Vandy gash us. Had Vandy kept running screens to JaMarcus King's side they would have easily won that game. I do not think we stopped that play at scrimmage one single time. The difference for sure is that the Gamecock offense is surely better than where it stood in recent years.

2015 in Athens 52-20 UGA this is the game before UGA played Bama and that line got super shorted and Bama demolished them. Gamecock defense just made Eason look good that game. 2016 in Columbia 28-14 final.

Surely for anyone that likes to play the spots this could be considered a tough spot for UGA coming off FLA with AUB and UK on deck... but is it? They just demolished FLA and ran it down their throats. Look ahead to Auburn for sure but it is not like UGA is coming out of a rough patch of games having played Tenn, Vandy, Mizzou, Fla in their last 4. I would love to hear any discussion on either side of it. For now I am staying away and going to dive into it deeper but I have a hard time seeing us stopping them for the bulk of the game so can we score enough to keep up?
 
other leans

Vandy - Was impressed with the QB play and should be able to replicate a similar game against WKU
NMSU missed the 10 but may not matter- will that line come back down or go up towards 14?
BG - maybe stick to the under
NIU
Clemson -7
WMU
 
How about how pissed Derek Mason was on the final drive when they threw towards the EZ on 3rd down instead of trying to get the first down? I don't know how coaches headsets work and if he gives free reign to the OC, but I would think in moments like that the HC weighs in with what he wants. Or maybe Schurmer freelanced and took a deep shot. I will be interested to read into that.
 
Regarding Georgia, I'm not sure they let down or look ahead. But what about the Missouri game? I remember watching that game saying "wow Georgia can be passed on". Mizzou O is likely better than SC. Maybe I put too much stock in Bentley, but I was thinking he should give them a shot to stay in the game. Need more time to think.
 
If Georgia comes out #1 in the first playoff poll will that put extra pressure on them? Or will they use it as motivation? Never know with that kind of stuff, probably not even worth thinking how they react.
 
Interesting that none of these are on your list. I took

USC +25 -- Power ratings don't come close to justifying this, and it's a flat spot to boot.
Clem -7
LSU +21.5 -- I doubt Bama will score 22
UF +3.5 -- Plus 3.5? Plus???? Is Tony going to cancel my ticket and ban me?

All way off.
 
M.W. said:
Interesting that none of these are on your list. I took

USC +25 -- Power ratings don't come close to justifying this, and it's a flat spot to boot.
Clem -7
LSU +21.5 -- I doubt Bama will score 22
UF +3.5 -- Plus 3.5? Plus???? Is Tony going to cancel my ticket and ban me?

All way off.
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I am considering the Clemson -7 for sure. Yea UF catching 3 is completely wrong and LSU is a pretty favorable line I have just been so confused by some of the SEC play this year.
 
I woke up in a better mood but still mulling over the Cocks+25. Interested to see if that goes up more or starts to drop.

Did take
Clemson -7
Florida +3.5

The LSU pick is also a consideration but I generally hate betting against Bama in any capacity.
 
s--k said:
Regarding Georgia, I'm not sure they let down or look ahead. But what about the Missouri game? I remember watching that game saying "wow Georgia can be passed on". Mizzou O is likely better than SC. Maybe I put too much stock in Bentley, but I was thinking he should give them a shot to stay in the game. Need more time to think.
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i don't see any reason to think you are over rating Bentley. He is not the problem if there is one. I hate to beat a dead horse but the issue is Roper. Bentley and the skill talent have performed well despite him. I am not concerned as much about it as a dog as I am a favorite.

I think I need to research this uga defense a little more. As you said vs mizzou they looked as if they could of be passed on. The DL does not have an outrageous number of sacks or TFL in the last sec games but they do have enough. To me the X factor of the game feels like TO battle and if cocks can have success moving the ball. If Gamecocks can score 14+ like 2016 I would say the 25 is very coverable
 
I was away from home and only had 3 viewing options that weekend so the Miz-UGA game was not a primary game for me. When I checked on it I was surprised to see Miz moving the ball threw the air and they hit some big passes. Checking the box score you'll see they weren't all that consistent in doing it, but had more success than anyone else has had. Now maybe that is a given with their style being what it is compared to the rest of who Georgia has played. I asked something similar when USC played ND, how would ND fair against a team that can pass and run as Irish hadn't faced much of a passing attack to date and they did excellent and USC self destructed. So you just never know, just because UGA hasn't been tested alot through the air doesn't mean they won't handle it well. But I do think that the Miz game may've shown some opportunity to move the ball on their D more than most of the UGA opponents have displayed. Then the other side of the spectrum is how do you slow the Dawg running game? 25.5 is just a shit ton of pts. I know some don't think too highly on SC based on their play and Georgia's stock couldn't be higher right now. I see that number and not only do I think SC can cover, a little part of me even sees upset potential. Take that with a grain of salt because I'm often trying to figure out ways for big upsets and sometimes I'm really wrong. But they feel oh-so-good the rare times you get them right. Not sure how to handle the Georgia O however from an SC D perspective. Any hope?
 
NMSU -9
WMU -6.5

2team 6.5pt NMSU -2.5, WMU pk

I am no Rexxy but that NMSU line drop is either people taking the key number, or a set up. Was 11 and hoping for 10 and getting 9. It may continue to drop but I will take it now.
 
ksimpsc said:
2015 in Athens 52-20 UGA this is the game before UGA played Bama and that line got super shorted and Bama demolished them. Gamecock defense just made Eason look good that game. 2016 in Columbia 28-14 final.

Surely for anyone that likes to play the spots this could be considered a tough spot for UGA coming off FLA with AUB and UK on deck... but is it? They just demolished FLA and ran it down their throats. Look ahead to Auburn for sure but it is not like UGA is coming out of a rough patch of games having played Tenn, Vandy, Mizzou, Fla in their last 4. I would love to hear any discussion on either side of it.
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You're mistaken about 2015. Georgia played Southern the week after beating USC. However, I think this is a similar kind of cathartic victory after three straight double-digit losses to the Gators in years when UF didn't really have the better team.
 
M.W. said:
You're mistaken about 2015. Georgia played Southern the week after beating USC. However, I think this is a similar kind of cathartic victory after three straight double-digit losses to the Gators in years when UF didn't really have the better team.
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It is the same year but I forgot the Southern game in between SC and Bama. UGA beat SC 52-20, played southern and spanked them, then lost to Bama 38-10 on what was like a 4pt line or something very short. I remember I was on Bama huge.
 
App St -9.5
Army +7

BG/Kent U50
MiaOH/Ohio U54
NIU/Toledo U56
Illi/Purdue U48
OhioSt/Iowa U52
Army/AFA U60
CSU/Wyo O52
Cinci/Tulane U54.5
UCF/SMU O74
Wake/ND U56
WKU/Vandy O52
SouMiss/Tenn U48.5
NMSU/TxSt O56
LSU/Bama U48.5

2team 6pt Navy -2, Clemson -1

Navy line was down for me until today, not buying Clemson almost slipping up again in this spot.

Ended up taking Gamecocks last night for 1u and going to sit back and let that play out.

I will update record a little later today.

Edit: that is over in CSU game
 
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updated record

1.5u FAU/Marshall U64

already on -9.5 but going to be a tough road to hoe for that.
 
In memory of one of my favorite CTG posters

2u Utah -7
2u Utah -4 1H
2u Utah -175 1q

2u Utah TT O31.5
2u Utah TT 1H O16.5

2u 2team 6.5pt Utah -0.5, Clemson -0.5
2u 4team 13pt Utah +6, Clemson +6, SCar +36.5, ND -1.5

Was going to be making similar plays anyways prior to the Rosen news so hey I will gamble a little more than intended on the same bets I was going to make. Huntley third game back against one of the worst defenses in the country that is allowing avg 6.3 ypp, though their pass defense is much better than their rush defense which is literally the worst in the country. Utah lost their last 4 after winning their first 4 and now at home. Give me the Utes in a route. BOL tonight my brahs \m/
 
Hey there, mr ksimp. Starting with Scare I like a lot of your plays .I played at 23.5. But you gotta remember, I am partial to dogs. Have Utah tonite, liking VPI under a FG. Also gators , LSU , zNew Mexico State , and Clemson. Maryland I’m going to have to give at least 3.5. I think you have a winner at even.
I am the other way on just two games that I can see. I will play Wyoming at home getting 4, and gut tells me So. Cal wins by more than a touchdown.
As Cav would say, BOL, amigo.
 
bull said:
Hey there, mr ksimp. Starting with Scare I like a lot of your plays .I played at 23.5. But you gotta remember, I am partial to dogs. Have Utah tonite, liking VPI under a FG. Also gators , LSU , zNew Mexico State , and Clemson. Maryland I’m going to have to give at least 3.5. I think you have a winner at even.
I am the other way on just two games that I can see. I will play Wyoming at home getting 4, and gut tells me So. Cal wins by more than a touchdown.
As Cav would say, BOL, amigo.
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Thanks mr bull for the thoughts, and glad to hear there is a decent bit of agreement. No big writeup for me this week on the cocks just a number you have to play. I can understand being on the other side of the Arizona play. I have been on them the last few weeks and felt I had to keep riding the Tate train for now. Felt like that was a game they either are close to the very end, or the get blown out. BOL this weekend on the FCS action and to us on the FBS.
 
I'd say I think the ol' Bum would be proud, but he would probably scold me for not playing the 1Q O, 1H O, and game O... and prob some set of 2H O's lol.
 
Arkansas -24

Colo/AzSt U58
Colo/AzSt 1H U30
SCar/UGA 1H U24.5
OSU/Iowa 1H U27
SMiss/Tenn 1H U24.5
 
ksimpsc said:
In memory of one of my favorite CTG posters

2u Utah -7
2u Utah -4 1H
2u Utah -175 1q

2u Utah TT O31.5

2u 2team 6.5pt Utah -0.5, Clemson -0.5
2u 4team 13pt Utah +6, Clemson +6, SCar +36.5, ND -1.5

Was going to be making similar plays anyways prior to the Rosen news so hey I will gamble a little more than intended on the same bets I was going to make. Huntley third game back against one of the worst defenses in the country that is allowing avg 6.3 ypp, though their pass defense is much better than their rush defense which is literally the worst in the country. Utah lost their last 4 after winning their first 4 and now at home. Give me the Utes in a route. BOL tonight my brahs \m/
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Nice call, I didn't have as much faith given how bad they have looked the last two weeks. I did hit the over but I thought it would be due to more even scoring by both teams. UCLA is a dumpster fire.
 
Two Utes said:
Nice call, I didn't have as much faith given how bad they have looked the last two weeks. I did hit the over but I thought it would be due to more even scoring by both teams. UCLA is a dumpster fire.
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it was looking grim through the first but they started to get in a groove. That aided by the fact that Utah decided to keep chucking it down field, and good they did because people were wide open.
 
nThLZfl.jpg
 
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