KSimp Week 11

ksimpsc

ksimpsc

Pretty much a regular
Week 10 Record:
34-19-2 ATS
15-12 Totals
1-3 ML
3-12 2H or live
7-9 Teaser
1-4 Parlay
+2.23

Overall Record:
333-299-17 ATS including totals
20-31 ML
56-58-3 2H or live
52-61 Teaser
49-59 Parlay
+22.18

ATS
4u Sou Miss -7 (b.5) @ RICE
Buffalo alt line +14.5 -230 3u
2u UNC -13 v Miami
NW -14 (b2)
2u Ark St -14
Cocks +7.5 v Florida
ODU -3 (b.5) v UTEP
Hokies +4.5 (b1) @ GT
BG -3 @ WMU
Tulane +3 -115 @ Army
Georgia St +3 @ Tex St
SDSU -23(b1) v Wyoming
NIU -6 @ Buffalo
APP St -17 @ Idaho
Midd Tenn St -5.5 @ FAU
Navy -21 v SMU
Duke -3 EV v PITT
Memphis +7 @ Houston
AFA +3 v Utah St
UCLA -9.5 (b.5) v Wash St
LSU -6.5 (b.5) v Ark
New Mexico +32
Nevada -1 v SJSU
Utah -5.5 @ AZ
Iowa -9.5 v Minn
New Mexico +32 @ Boise
Vandy -3 (b.5) v Kentucky
K St +6 @ TT
Alabama -7
Houston -4
Nebraska -7

.5u Oaklahoma +4 @ Baylor
.5u Texas +8.5
.5u ND -26.5
.5u OK St -13

TOTALS
Miami/UNC O60
BG/WMU O75 -120
KentSt/Ohio longest TD U41.5 yards
CMU TT O13.5 1H
VT/GT U54
NIU/BUFF U56
BG TT O37.5
BG TT 1H O18.5 -115
ARK/LSU O53
GA/AU U53
OU/Baylor O75.5
GaSou/Troy U58
NT/UT U68 (b1)
UNM/BOISE U58
Minn/Iowa O44 (b1)

.5u FLA/USC U48(b1)
.5u BG/WMU O71
.5u WMU TT O35
.5u WMU TT 1H O18 -105
.5u BG/WMU 1q O14.5 ev
.5u BG/WMU 2q O20 -105
.5u BG/WMU 3q O14.5 -115
.5u BG/WMU 4q O17.5 +105
.5u NIU/Buffalo first score FG/Safety +205
.5u OU TT 1H O18.5
.5u Ucla O20.5 1H TT

ML
.5u ULL -105
.5u COCKS +255

2H or LIVE
.5u 2H NIU -3
.5u Texas +3
.5u ten -17 ev
.5u Kansas +17.5 2H
.5u ga/aub u24.5 2H
2u Tulsa 2H +11
Baylor -140 LIVE
Live wazzu -200

TEASER
2team 7pt Toledo +4, O48
2team 7pt BG +4, BG/WMU O68.5
2team 7pt BG +4, BG/WMU O65
.5u 2team 7pt wmu +10, O65
2team 7pt NIU -1, NIU/Buff U62
3team 10pt VT+12.5, VT/GT O41, ULL+10
3 team 10 pt Tulsa +33, Ga St +12.5, Nevada +11
2 team 7pt Iowa -2.5, O38.5
2 team 7pt Temple, O37.5

PARLAY
parlay 1u to win 1.2u BG, NIU
post #35 ML parlay .5u to win 8.722u
post #55 parlay
parlay .5u to win 20u midd tenn, Old Dom, Vandy, AFA, Ga St, SouMiss, Nevada
UCLA, Colo St, Utah ML parlay 1u

Futures:
Clemson U 9 (9-0)
Houston O 8 (9-0)
Georgia U 9 (6-3)
Ok St O 7.5 (9-0)
BYU O 8 (7-2)
Pitt O 6 (6-3)
Virginia U 4 (3-6)
Indiana O5.5 (4-5)
Boise O 10 (7-2)
Iowa U 7.5 (8-0)
Florida O7 (8-1)
Vandy U3.5 (3-6)

 
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Ksimp interested in your thoughts on a Clemson/Scar line in 2 weeks? Guessing somewhere between 14-17. Please don't derail our season in Columbia. :prayer
 
piperdog188 said:
Ksimp interested in your thoughts on a Clemson/Scar line in 2 weeks? Guessing somewhere between 14-17. Please don't derail our season in Columbia. :prayer
Click to expand...
piper my man since Clemson is not playing tough comp really (guess you don't just walk into the carrier dome and steal a win from syracuse) and we will have Florida then Citadel won't see much line shifting from games played unless we somehow beat Florida or Clemson may lose to someone.

the line you said of 14-17 feels low as to what I think will get hung out there. We covered two weeks in a row as +17 against Tenn and ATM (who are really not that great of teams but we did have legit shots to win both of those games) I feel like the line will probably open higher with Clemson being number 1 and our only real win of the season was UNC.

tough to know what will happen. thought that we looked pretty good comparatively the last few weeks as we have all season, maybe the second half of the kentucky game. If they lay a huge number out there I have to be on them. i have a lot of blind hate (not really hate as much as jealousy/hate/love/disdain for dabo/fear of the shit talks to come/ but I just do not think that Clemson is #1 in country and has nearly fallen flat last couple weeks to pull away and win both games and nearly cover.

it is sad to say this but a buddy of mine said if we beat clemson it may be one of the best seasons in school history. If we beat an undefeated team from the ACC to stop Clemson from being #1 and potentially hurt the season while doing absolutely nothing else and losing to UCF at half would still be a decent season lol. I will likely be on the cocks ATS but have little faith we win unless Dabo just goes full Clempsoning. Whose to say the Gamecocks dont go Cocksing and actually be in a position to win to follow that up with a Perry INT, could see it
 
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honestly Shawn Elliot coaching this year against Dabo is a real X Factor. Dabo was going to kick the shit out of Spurrier, and Spurrier knew it probably partly why he dropped. I felt strongly one of the things Spurrier was most proud of while at USC was beating Clemson 5 straight. He talked about it often and loved rubbing it in (one of my favorite moments is when he grabbed the mic out of Kevin Borgmann's hand at the Capitol One Bowl and makes the state championship joke). I am interested to see what we do against Florida this week but I am supremely happy Spurrier dropped off because the season took a sharp uptick once he left. Newer coaches coming in have made a huge impact this season on a lot of teams in CFB.
 
hahaha found that video after talking about it made me think of it. that shit makes me laugh every time. he was such a troll but damn i loved him. lol watch him not even go for the handshake he just wants the mic

[video=youtube;TY3txxefhuM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TY3txxefhuM[/video]
 
4u Sou Miss -7 (b.5) @ RICE

Sou Miss is coming off a bye and just watched the team they throttled 34-14 (UTEP) beat their next opponent. Rice secondary is suspect at best and USM passing offense (completion and attempts) are behind WKU and Marshall with less games played. Conference stats are also misleading for these guys currently because they have played @Miss St and @Nebraska where they covered both and only lost to Nebby by 1 score and had to go to marshall where they got shut down. Meanwhile they have thumped the bottom tier of CUSA beating UNT 49-14, UTSA 32-10, @Char 44-10, UTEP 34-13. No look ahead either as their next game is ODU before they finish the season with LaTech, makes me feel even better about it as next week may be a let down spot after they smack Rice around to get tuned up.
 
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Oh man, I'm rooting for SoCar to beat Clemson solely to enjoy watching their fans meltdown.
 
Cocks +7.5

I will take this. I think the opener was a slight higher but Cocks had a better showing that Florida against Vandy last week and now we got Florida coming into Willy B. Their defense is going to stop us up bigtime so probably a low scoring affair. I will take the points.
 
ODU -3 (b.5) v UTEP

Missed the opener here but UTEP off a pretty big win vs Rice now on the road to ODU after they had their big win @UTSA this weekend. ODU coming home I will take their defense and hopefully an offense that now has things moving. Suprisingly ODU is second in the conference behind WKU in passing offense

See DOLLAZ thread for great write up on this game
 
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.5u Oaklahoma +4 @ Baylor

big time game here and OU may be a little over valued how they have been stomping people but I see this being a tight game
 
Hokies +4.5 (b1)

My birds are on the strug this year and can't say I am sad to hear Beamer is retiring. Very winnable game here for them and they need it as the last two of the season will be tough games. UNC probably slaps them and UVA has been playing better
 
My UGA U9 Season Wins bet likely comes down to this Auburn game 6-3 with Auburn, GaSou, and GT on deck. Really want to take Auburn here but I get double burned if they lose the game
 
BG -3

convo in TimH thread but I will just copy and paste what was said there. Tim posted numbers of both teams in his thread. BG having played a much tougher schedule with its only losses @Tennessee first game of the season and the FG loss to Memphis. I feel comfortable taking them here despite going into western michigan which is not an easy place to play (especially when they start rowing) with BGs road wins: Maryland 48-27, Purdue 35-28, Buffalo 28-22

Like I said WMU is no joke you dont just walk into Waldo Stadium and get handed a win. These guys are insane starting with their head coach.
If you have never seen it I will link a video you got to check out. PJ Fleck started some new traditions at WMU if you do not have time to check it move to :24, 1:50, and 2:24

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgHyEbMQ-OE

haha man i almost want to put another unit on it after watching that vid again
 
just getting back to the house, a couple plays I locked from the office

Miami/UNC O60
Memphis/Houston O71.5
 
Tulane +3 -115

Discussion per JML4481 thread: Tulane has seen the option twice this season against much better forms of it. Currently boasting a 3,8ypp but that is skewed with their SOS vs Duke, @GT, @Temple, Houston, @Navy, @Memphis, Uconn

In their game against UCF winning 45-31 they had 4tds 13.23 ypp passing on 17 completions 29 attempts 225 yards, 4.22ypp rushing on 41 attempts for 173 yards

In the Army/Rice game Rice had 2 TDs 13.35 ypp passing on 20 completions 30 attempts 267 yards, 4.71ypp rushing on 35 attempts for 165 yards

Seems like Army is capable of giving up big yardage in the air and the balanced attack worked against them. The play numbers look almost identical to what Tulane is cabale and what Army has already allowed. Army is coming off a slobberknocker rival game with Navy. Per JML4481 Army is allowing a "staggering 96.15% opponent red zone scoring percentage." Very winnable game getting points, me likey
 
thanks Spanish you too, had toledo over teaser i forgot to post but damn knew i should have gone against the steam at Toledo -2.5
 
Georgia St +3 @ Tex St

Both of these teams are on the bottom rung of their conferences both with only two wins but Georgia St has two solid road wins against Ball St and NMSU while Tex St has lost its last two against Georgia Southerm and New Mexico St 31-21 after their win against Sou Ala. Feel like the wrong team is favored here
 
SDSU -23(b1) v Wyoming

SDSU off a bye with Wyoming 3 of last 4 on the road. SDSU run attack should gash Wyoming. Do not like the big number but I do not see Wyoming doing a whole lot here
 
NIU -6

Feel like this line should be something more like 10. Both teams have a decent pedigree so far but NIU is just all around the better team. Having played BC and Ohio St close in losses on top of beating Toledo last week. Hard for me to see NIU dropping to Buffalo this week after beating Toledo who was leading thier division in the MAC. Barring screw ups BG is going to win the MAC East but NIU could step into the top spot this week in the MAC West with a win over Buffalo and WMU losing to BG.
 
going bum style

.5u BG/WMU 1q O14.5 ev
.5u BG/WMU 2q O20 -105
.5u BG/WMU 3q O14.5 -115
.5u BG/WMU 4q O17.5 +105
 
thanks bum and met

Buffalo alt line +14.5 -230 3u putting some faith in buffalo to keep it close
.5u NIU/Buffalo first score FG/Safety +205
 
[TABLE="width: 326"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: dateCell, align: center"]11/11/2015 @ 08:10 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, align: center"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][105] BOWLING GREEN -165[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: dateCell, align: center"]11/11/2015 @ 08:10 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, align: center"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][107] NO ILLINOIS -275[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: dateCell, align: center"]11/14/2015 @ 07:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, align: center"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][120] CINCINNATI U -900[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: dateCell, align: center"]11/14/2015 @ 03:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, align: center"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][127] MICHIGAN -550[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: dateCell, align: center"]11/14/2015 @ 03:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, align: center"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][130] MARSHALL -475[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: dateCell, align: center"]11/14/2015 @ 12:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, align: center"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][134] MICHIGAN STATE -700[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: dateCell, align: center"]11/14/2015 @ 12:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, align: center"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][137] OHIO STATE -750[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: dateCell, align: center"]11/14/2015 @ 12:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, align: center"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][156] NORTHWESTERN -800[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: dateCell, align: center"]11/14/2015 @ 03:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, align: center"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][163] ARKANSAS STATE -600[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: dateCell, align: center"]11/14/2015 @ 03:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, align: center"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][171] ALABAMA -320[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: dateCell, align: center"]11/14/2015 @ 03:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, align: center"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][174] NORTH CAROLINA -500[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: dateCell, align: center"]11/14/2015 @ 03:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, align: center"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][175] SOUTHERN MISS -300[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: dateCell, align: center"]11/14/2015 @ 03:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, align: center"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][178] NAVY -1600[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: dateCell, align: center"]11/14/2015 @ 12:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, align: center"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][202] LOUISVILLE -625[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: dateCell, align: center"]11/14/2015 @ 08:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell, align: center"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][214] IOWA -490[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

little 15 ML parlay .5u to win 8.722u
 
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.5u 2H NIU -3

lol at that alt line bet, was afraid they would get smashed should have just sat on my NIU bet
 
lol i guess i just needed to will it with that .5u bet haha. thought that missed PAT was going to get me
 
ouch man wmu to score the td from the 3yard line 1st down cashes me on almost everything

+2.82u on the day leaving me +1.82 going into Thursday but man that could have been tasty with just one more score
 
my book keeping has been trash this week, sorry I have been at the office more than at my rig at home and it has screwed me up.

was matching my spread sheet with my card and forgot to post APP St -17 (b1) from -18. Still like it under -20 though and was considering adding a bit more to it
 
2u NW -14 (b2)

Missed the number here earlier in the week but NW with their defense should probably be a bit higher of a favorite. Purdue only seen two wins this year one was from Nebraska while NW is on the grind with only losses to Michigan and Iowa.
 
2u UNC -13

Was surprised to see this line not move any. Two programs going in different directions. One potentially sky high the other potentially into the dirt. Miami got slaughtered by Clemson and I personally think UNC offense is better than Clemson. Miami will score but doubt they keep pace.
 
2u Ark St -14

I learned my lesson betting against Ark St the week of the App St game. I learned first hand how fast their offense can move if they are working. ULM should not be able to keep pace here.
 
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Midd Tenn St -5.5

Lol I love how every year I pick a conference and sit in it. Not really on purpose but more just the games I watch and this year I have been all over this CUSA jenk.

Midd Tenn St has secured itself in the upper middle class of the CUSA. They beat Marshall last week 27-24 to give Marshall their first conference loss. But, they struggle against the upper class of CUSA like LT and WKU (getting stomped by both). They are sporting a 5.9ypp on over 2500 yards rushing and passing this year but with some tough games thrown in the mix. 17-13 loss to Vandy, 27-25 loss @Illi, 37-10 loss @alabama, 58-28 loss @WKU, 45-16 loss @LT. Midd Tenn is also sporting a better overall defense despite the tough schedule. Midd Tenn sports the second best rush offense in the CUSA with 4.8 yards per play and over 200 yards per game against the FAU rush defense, one of the worst in conference, allowing an average 222 yards per game and 5.5ypp.
 
wow +3.295 day leaving me +5.115 going into Friday and had a multisport parlay hit that had BG, NIU, VT ML on it. Did not think that thing had a chance so all in all great day. That VT game was weird but played into my bets nicely. Glad to see the Hhokies got a chance for ol' Frank.
 
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