KJ Club World Cup

KJ

KJ

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6/22

Juve/Real Madrid/Man City ML parlay -112 3* b365
Juventus tt o1.5 -175 3* Fanatics
Juventus tt o2.5 +175 1.5* Fanatics
Juventus tt o3.5 +475 .5* Fanatics
RB Salzburg +.5 +103 3* b365
RB Salzburg ML +290 b365
live HT Red Bull Salzburg tt o.5 +105 2* DK
live HT RBS/Al Hilal BTTS +175 b365

6/23

Atletico tt o1.5 -138 4* b365
1h Atletico ML +120 1.5*
Porto tt o1.5 -188 4* b365
Porto tt o2.5 +162 2* b365
Porto tt o3.5 +450 b365
Porto tt o4.5 +1200 .5* b365
Porto tt o5.5 +2800 .1* b365

6/24

Boca tt o4.5 -200 5* b365
Boca tt o5.5 +100 2.5* b365
Boca tt o6.5 +200 1.5*
Boca tt o7.5 +400 .5*
Boca tt o8.5 +800 .25*
Boca tt o9.5 +1400 .1*
Boca tt o10.5 +2500 .1*
Bayern ML +115 2*
 
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Been treading very lightly in this thing, only a couple carnival parlays to this point but I think we're getting to that point the cream starts rising.

6/22

Juve/Real Madrid/Man City ML parlay -112 3* b365

Going to be more going forward but the 3 European powers should each get 3 points Sunday
 
Al Hilal is a fun team to bet on in the Saudi League, hovering around the top for a reason...they've bought some quality European talent and feature Brazilians up front to supplement Mitrovic. Thing is he's not playing that I know of, hurt and involved in transfer rumors anyway. Now we get Al Hilal off the emotional and insanely eye-popping draw against Real Madrid. Hmm. I think this team likely still would finish around the same spot as RB Salzburg in the Austrian League, there isn't much a difference. So off the emotional draw against the world elite, now going to be favored against RB Salzburg? Yeah I'm not sold. Recent history suggests goals scored and allowed by both squads so there are a bunch of ways to play this.

Before I wager it, I'm prioritizing RB Salzburg goals first, BTTS second, RB Salzburg plus/pk (or ties don't lose) third, then Salzburg ML. Not sure how I'm structuring it yet but this is the best pre-match puzzle I've had fun with so far trying to solve.

South American clubs v Euro powerhouses were always going to be a story and Argie/Brazil have been holding their own so far. The Saudi clubs are a unicorn. And it's perfect after a top team there full of ex Euro studs melded with actual Saudis gets to play a consistent winner from a middle Euro League.

Let's just say I'll have a few units shading Red Bull Salzburg in this one in some fashion. I do not think they should be dogs and think that completely plays into their favor.
 
Also for anyone who cares, Real Madrid and City matches will actually be on TNT/TruTV today. Every match is free on DAZN throughout this but the stream on the tele has sucked. On the laptop it's been fine, just a good 90 seconds behind live betting which is normal. They've chosen some to actually be broadcast on the TNT Sports network which is a lot better than going to DAZN directly through the tv. On phone/laptop/tablet it's shitty with buffering and way behind their cable broadcasts.
 
Lost a long write up on Juve but it's in their best interest to score and win GD if both they and City win then next match ends up draw. Winner of the group avoids RM (hypothetically/reality) in KOs.

Memo, don't do writeups unless asked.

Juventus tt o1.5 -175 3* Fanatics
Juventus tt o2.5 +175 1.5* Fanatics
Juventus tt o3.5 +475 .5* Fanatics
 
Also it will likely be priced in but River Plate will be without their best three midfielders against Inter in their next match. I doubt it will be priced in enough. Just food for thought at the moment but hard to see RP competing well in that one outside of what they are really capable of doing, making it a slug match I guess. Different way to cap that one for me. If Inter shake free they can score a bunch. But River are gonna try to ugly that one up.
 
Basically sitting on City ML -112 at this point which is where I wanted to be before firing at Red Bull. Ugh last minute.

RB Salzburg +.5 +103 3* b365
RB Salzburg ML +290 b365
 
If we get 0-0 at 25 minutes or so I'll look at BTTS, it was -225 pre match and not interested there. Didn't even get a chance to look at team totals but again I like RBS team total if the number gets favorable during live betting.
 
0-0 at HT so going to approach this differently. Only looked at b365 and DK so might be better numbers, not sure

live HT Red Bull Salzburg tt o.5 +105 2* DK
live HT RBS/Al Hilal BTTS +175 b365
 
Interesting that this match ended 0-0. This stat line would suggest that was improbable.

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On to Monday

Insanely crazy situation that Atletico had no business being in but here they are. Must win by two to advance. And you know Brazilians are going to sit back trying to not give up 2 goals. So this one is tough to digest. AM will end up with 75% possession, but does that translate to goals?

Reading up on tiebreaks now...interesting it's rightfully h2h before goal differential in this competition. Never seen that.

Lots to digest on this one. PSG need to win. If they draw and Atletico win, PSG are out. So we in my book need to assume PSG win. Puts them at 6 and Botafogo already at 6. Win and Atletico are at 6 so a three way! Man I love typing that.

Goal differential would likely put PSG through then it comes down to a win....not GD for Atletico to get through. Curious? I've just spent an hour trying to figure out the scenario and IF PSG get through amongst the three, I believe it comes down to H2H between Atletico/Botafogo.

Pretty crazy set up regardless, hope I read it correctly.
 
Gentleman's draw sets up perfectly in Miami tomorrow night. Brazilians and Messi both through would do well for both. Don't think either care about the knockout opponent really.

Still really chewing hard on how to attack the early matches. So much going on. Usually I'd be on the team with the hammer (Botafogo) team total but Atletico is one of the most dominant defenses on the planet. Likely just be on Atletico and assume PSG take care of business. Seattle are eliminated so might see some pedestrian defense in that one. PSG still actually need to win to secure advancement.
 
Political drama when 97% of the membership goes one direction. I fell for it then one got really personal. Don't do politics when gambling.

6/23

Atletico tt o1.5 -138 4* b365
1h Atletico ML +120 1.5*
 
Usually this is the spot I love the dog when team A needs to score. Thing is team A is an elite team on the world stage and know they need to win by at least two, so they will try to suffocate any Botafogo chances in the back third if those chances ever exist. Expecting something like 17-3 SOG advantage to Atletico. Hope a couple go in.
 
Other early match, think it's PSG 2-0 or 3-0. Not sure there's an advantage there. If 0-0 at HT might get into it.
 
So tonight we get the great debate about how groups work. Clearly, it would be smart for Miami and Palmeiras to take the draw and punt the massive group favorites out of the competition. Thing is, going forward that doesn't mean much because they wouldn't match up with Porto anyway. It's still worth a lot of money to those teams to advance.

What I do know is Porto needs to win and hope. And this team they are playing against should spread 'em fast and often like a Vegas hooker. Ladder time.

6/23

Porto tt o1.5 -188 4* b365
Porto tt o2.5 +162 2* b365
Porto tt o3.5 +450 b365
Porto tt o4.5 +1200 .5* b365
Porto tt o5.5 +2800 .1* b365


Yes, I do believe 6 goals isn't a stretch in this one really if they want to.
 
KJ said:
So tonight we get the great debate about how groups work. Clearly, it would be smart for Miami and Palmeiras to take the draw and punt the massive group favorites out of the competition. Thing is, going forward that doesn't mean much because they wouldn't match up with Porto anyway. It's still worth a lot of money to those teams to advance.

What I do know is Porto needs to win and hope. And this team they are playing against should spread 'em fast and often like a Vegas hooker. Ladder time.

6/23

Porto tt o1.5 -188 4* b365
Porto tt o2.5 +162 2* b365
Porto tt o3.5 +450 b365
Porto tt o4.5 +1200 .5* b365
Porto tt o5.5 +2800 .1* b365


Yes, I do believe 6 goals isn't a stretch in this one really if they want to.
Click to expand...
Definitely goals in this one
 
Looking ahead there will be 4 teams from groups who've played out West and have to actually travel to the East Coast for KO matches. Not really sure how much I'll put into that but it's a factor at least. And PSG are off the incredible CL run....might be a good time to fade them. They need a breather.
 
KJ said:
Looking ahead there will be 4 teams from groups who've played out West and have to actually travel to the East Coast for KO matches. Not really sure how much I'll put into that but it's a factor at least. And PSG are off the incredible CL run....might be a good time to fade them. They need a breather.
Click to expand...

Yes I agree with PSG. They have played non-stop for almost a year. Won all the possible trophies. They did manage to rest some players after clinching league 1 title which I think helped them in CL but they must be getting very tired of playing. Especially in this heat

Also South American teams are in the start/middle of season so they are in peak form physically
 
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KJ said:
So tonight we get the great debate about how groups work. Clearly, it would be smart for Miami and Palmeiras to take the draw and punt the massive group favorites out of the competition. Thing is, going forward that doesn't mean much because they wouldn't match up with Porto anyway. It's still worth a lot of money to those teams to advance.

What I do know is Porto needs to win and hope. And this team they are playing against should spread 'em fast and often like a Vegas hooker. Ladder time.

6/23

Porto tt o1.5 -188 4* b365
Porto tt o2.5 +162 2* b365
Porto tt o3.5 +450 b365
Porto tt o4.5 +1200 .5* b365
Porto tt o5.5 +2800 .1* b365


Yes, I do believe 6 goals isn't a stretch in this one really if they want to.
Click to expand...
Good call. Porto really should have had at least 6.
 
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Boca are -7 in GD and get to play Auckland

Usually I see the heavyweights (Benfica barely qualify) and think gentleman's draw and both go through. But I don't actually think Bayern are good with that. So attacking this group thinking at worse Boca win 7-0 in an effort to advance. Obviously that requires Bayern to win which I think they do. But regardless, Boca need to run it up. Double digits is very much in play.

Boca tt o4.5 -200 5* b365
Boca tt o5.5 +100 2.5* b365
Boca tt o6.5 +200 1.5*
Boca tt o7.5 +400 .5*
Boca tt o8.5 +800 .25*
Boca tt o9.5 +1400 .1*
Boca tt o10.5 +2500 .1*
 
I do think even Bayern backups if needed will be too proud to settle for a draw with Benfica

Bayern ML +115 2*
 
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