KJ Bowl Season 2018-19

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KJ

KJ

Bump. Set. Shuma!
+8.80 Championship Week
-5.25 FCS thru 12/15
-73.91 2018 Bowls thru Rose Bowl


Futures

54002 Clemson to win CFP +270 3*



12/28

241 Auburn/Purdue u58 -110 3*
241 1h Auburn/Purdue u28.5 +105 1.5*
244 West Virginia +3 -110 8*
244 West Virginia ML +135 2*
244 West Virginia tt o32 -115 4*
243 Syracuse/WVU o74 -110 5*
247 Iowa St +4 -115 4*
247 Iowa St ML +165 2*

12/29

252 Virginia +4 -115 3*
252 Virginia ML +165
249 Florida/Michigan o50.5 -115 3*
246 Nevada tt o28 -135 10*
245 Ark St/Navada o56.5 -110 5*
245 1h Ark St/Nevada o28 -113 3*
245 1q Ark St/Nevada o10.5 -130 2.5*
256 Clemson tt o34.5 -115 10*
256 1h Clemson -7 +100 2.5*
255 Notre Dame/Clemson o55 -110 5*
253 Oklahoma +14 -108 4*
253 Oklahoma ML +410 .5*
254 Alabama tt u47.5 +100 2*

12/31

258 Cincinnati -5.5 -113 5*
260 Stanford -4 -110 3*
260 Stanford tt o27.5 -115
261 Michigan St/Oregon u45 -110 4*
261 Michigan St tt u22 -115 1.5*
263 Missouri/Oklahoma St o71 -110 10*
263 Missouri tt o41 -110 5*
268 Texas A&M tt o31.5 -115 2.5*
265 Northwestern/Utah u45 -110 4*

1/1

270 Mississippi St tt u23 -125 3*
269 1q Iowa/Mississippi St u9 -120 2.5*
271 Kentucky/Penn St u47.5 -110 5*
271 Kentucky +4.5 -105 3*
271 Kentucky ML +170
272 Penn St tt u26 -120 3*
274 UCF +7 -108 5*
274 UCF ML +225
273 LSU tt u33 +100 10*
275 Ohio St/Washington u58.5 -115 3*
275 Washington +6 -107 2*
275 Washington ML +205 .5*
276 Ohio St tt u31 -125 6*
277 Texas/Georgia o59 -115 16*
277 1h Texas/Georgia o30 -120 8*
277 1q Texas/Georgia o13.5 -120 4*
278 Georgia tt o35.5 -130 6*
277 2h Texas tt o9.5 -115 10*
 
Last edited:
12/15

204 UL-Lafayette +3.5 -113 3*
204 UL-Lafayette ML +145

12/19

214 San Diego St +3 -107 6*
214 San Diego St ML +145 2*

12/21

217 FIU/Toledo o67.5 -115 6*

12/22

222 Memphis -3.5 -115 8*
224 Army -3 -110 4*
225 Buffalo/Troy o53.5 -110 2*

12/26

232 Georgia Tech -4 -112 5*

12/27

238 Wisconsin +3.5 -110 5*
238 Wisconsin ML +155 2*

12/28

243 Syracuse/WVU o74 -110 5*
247 Iowa St +4 -115 4*
247 Iowa St ML +165 2*

12/29

249 Florida/Michigan o50.5 -115 3*

12/31

258 Cincinnati -5.5 -113 5*
263 Missouri/Oklahoma St o71 -110 10*
265 Northwestern/Utah u45 -110 4*

1/1

271 Kentucky/Penn St u47.5 -110 5*
275 Ohio St/Washington u58.5 -115 3*
 
I do have quite a few leans on other games but line movement at this point wouldn't seem to hurt me on those so I'm fine waiting til they get where I want them. No ML on Hawaii yet but it will be played but if it goes to 2.5 I might have to play the line regardless.

Miami in cold NYC can't be desirable, Bahamas Bowl over just will be an auto play when teams with a pulse are there, only thing I think could possibly hurt the biggest one is weather in Memphis. Should see bunches of big plays.
 
Going to throw these in here as well

309802 Weber St -7 -110 2.5*
309805 S Dakota St -7.5 -110 1.5*
309807 UC Davis/E Washington o71 -110 2.5*

12/8

103 Navy +7 -116 2.5*
 
KJ, Can you give us a little breakdown on Weber St vs Maine? I have no info on this Friday night degen special. GL!
 
wiseplayer said:
KJ, Can you give us a little breakdown on Weber St vs Maine? I have no info on this Friday night degen special. GL!
Click to expand...
I played a number, it's now at 6.5 but much more wanted the 7 in case it moved up. Pretty simply, Weber's only losses have been at Utah and at NAU (inexplicable) but at home year in and out they are tough, even beat E Washington at home this season. Elevation at 4300 feet and should have quite the HFA for this one with Maine having played out their minds against possibly the best team they faced last weekend all season beating Jax St by 28. Yeah they beat WKU (not so great) and lost to CMU earlier in the year for the Chips lone victory. Not so sure most if not all remaining FCS teams wouldn't be favored against CMU at this point.

Throw in that they have to basically fly cross country after the huge win, all signs point to Weber for me.
 
Last edited:
12/15

205 Arizona St/Fresno St u51.5 -110 3*

12/20

216 South Florida +3 -120 2.5*

12/26

234 Cal pk -113 2*

12/27

235 Duke/Temple u56 -115 3*

12/29

252 Virginia +4 -115 3*
252 Virginia ML +165
 
54002 Clemson to win CFP +270 3*

Simply a play assuming value as I think the ND game will be a route. No need to bet a line at 11, will wait for 10 or try to avoid 13 but assuming they win that +270 should present value regardless of who they play in the title game.
 
KJ said:
54002 Clemson to win CFP +270 3*

Simply a play assuming value as I think the ND game will be a route. No need to bet a line at 11, will wait for 10 or try to avoid 13 but assuming they win that +270 should present value regardless of who they play in the title game.
Click to expand...

If you have the option, I think an open parlay with Clemson ML vs ND and then Clemson ML vs Bama/Oklahome would pay more. Assuming Bama wins they would be 7.5 pt dogs?.... (+260-ish on the ML). I guess you would lose value if Oklahoma wins, guessing that game would be close to a pick? -460 vs ND and +260 vs bama would pay +340...
 
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mcculra said:
If you have the option, I think an open parlay with Clemson ML vs ND and then Clemson ML vs Bama/Oklahome would pay more. Assuming Bama wins they would be 7.5 pt dogs?.... (+260-ish on the ML). I guess you would lose value if Oklahoma wins, guessing that game would be close to a pick? -460 vs ND and +260 vs bama would pay +340...
Click to expand...
Can't even do parlays let alone open...hell can't do live betting. Actually not even really sure on the 29th how available I'll be during games so just going this route, more or less to make the 'ship game interesting at all from a wagering perspective if it's Bama/Clemson. Have to assume Clemson would be around +220, possibly less. That's one game I doubt the ML and spreads correlate really well, Clemson ML would see a bunch of wagers at +260
 
KJ said:
Can't even do parlays let alone open...hell can't do live betting. Actually not even really sure on the 29th how available I'll be during games so just going this route, more or less to make the 'ship game interesting at all from a wagering perspective if it's Bama/Clemson. Have to assume Clemson would be around +220, possibly less. That's one game I doubt the ML and spreads correlate really well, Clemson ML would see a bunch of wagers at +260
Click to expand...

Got ya. Just trying to help...
 
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More in a bit, but want this in

205 Arizona St tt u23.5 -105 10*

Quite simply missing N'Keal is the first of many keys, he was the one advantage ASU had over Fresno when they have the ball, and he's rightly sitting this out with nothing to gain as he goes into bowl season as the top WR in the draft according to the many. Big target to loosen up a ridiculously tight Fresno defense was their only hope imo. He made Manny look much more competent than he is. So expecting a heavy dosage of Benjamin to keep the clock running against a great, not good, scoring/RZ defense spells field goals on the occasion the Devils get there.

Devils will have to rely on Herm for motivation here at all...45 minute flight north to basically Tempe -10 degrees isn't exciting other than it's Vegas, a trip the 21 and overs have surely made a few times anyway (likely several u21 as well) to play what I'd expect to be a highly motivated and very good Fresno team in position to take down a power5 who is also missing its best defensive player due to family issues. Fresno should control the clock and if I wasn't so high on the unders, I'd surely be on the favorite as well.

Might look for a HT bet on the Bulldogs if it's close at that point.
 
Just to have something on it, truly know nothing about either. Playing the slightly less bet favorite to score on the fast track in their only tv game sounds like nothing but an educated guess.

200 NC A&T tt o28 +105
 
Back to the well against Maine, if they get me on the red turf gonna have to chalk it up to black bears smelling blood...mine

309816 Eastern Washington -13 -115 2.5*
 
KJ said:
Back to the well against Maine, if they get me on the red turf gonna have to chalk it up to black bears smelling blood...mine

309816 Eastern Washington -13 -115 2.5*
Click to expand...

That’s funny, mr. k j.
 
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Fortunately this has only moved 10 cents considering the FG move on the total

50038 Ohio/SDSU no score first 6 minutes -120 2*
 
215 Marshall tt u27.5 -110 8*
50069 Marshall/USF first score over 6 mins -110 2.5*
216 USF ML +157

USF shouldn't be motivated for this. Marshall should be even less. Should be sloppy conditions.
 
Thought about trying to get creative to combat that awful total but just gonna let that fly and hope for some crazy Bahamas Bowl type stuff in the 1h. Backup QB gets the number into playable range, not sure the ruckus considering the big deal being made over the wind why a backup QB would matter in the same sentence.

217 FIU +7.5 -114 3*
217 FIU ML +230
 
Time to get serious about nothing but football for a few weeks (and holiday NBA), think I've tapped out other than occasional NCAA hoops bets until March. There will be obvious spots to play but conference season just best for me to sit back and observe. Not much soccer til February to focus on either, so time to have fun with bowls and NFL foreseeable future.

Made no secret how much I like the CATS in this one

222 Memphis -3 -120 6*
222 Memphis tt o38 -130 10*

Not sure I do much more in the 2nd game, took Army before the Navy game hoping Navy might clip em but still got the good number.

Will be doing more with both later games surely, don't see reason to push them right now
 
237 Miami/Wisconsin u48 -115 6*

This thing was always shaping up to be trash, now it's looking like a real turd if it's both backup QBs
 
More to get out the way on the early game, if this game doesn't go my way gonna do my best not to chase and keep each game independently, it's a long 10 days, just happens one of my faves kicks it off. No guarantees a chase won't happen in the 2h of this one though.

221 1h Wake Forest/Memphis o36.5 -105 8*
221 1q Wake Forest/Memphis o14.5 -125 5*
55013 Taylor o114.5 rushing yds -110
 
Exhausting, expensive

225 Buffalo/Troy o51.5 -110 4*
225 1h Buffalo/Troy o27 -110 3*
226 Troy tt o25 -105 2.5*
 
I think the winning team is likely getting points here but don't feel like play both side and total in this

228 Hawaii tt o29.5 -115 5*
228 LaTech/Hawaii o61 -115 2.5*
 
Depressing Saturday, knew it was coming before Memphis even kicked off and it only went downhill from there.

Storms and 21 mph winds in Dallas tomorrow, clock shouldn't stop running, neither team was going to throw a ton anyway but weather should diminish even the surprise play to keep the defense honest.

229 Boston College/Boise St u53 -110 7*
229 1h Boston College/Boise St u27 -115 3.5*
 
GL KJ. It should be against Bowl rules to have 3 days in a row without a Bowl game once it starts. Let's get this 1st game started with a W.
 
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wiseplayer said:
GL KJ. It should be against Bowl rules to have 3 days in a row without a Bowl game once it starts. Let's get this 1st game started with a W.
Click to expand...
Man I strictly bet this one early because of weather. Liked it anyway but that lil kicker was all I needed
 
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