Kentucky Derby Week...
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
You can never leave out Chad's third horse in these turf stakes. Had the same thing happen at Belmont the year American Pharoah won. Slumber was at double digit odds and Chad's third horse in the race and won impressively. If you're playing one of his, then use them all.
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
Well Thousand Words opted out.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Yeah I thought the hustling from the poor break to a sub 47 half would've burned his energy.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Agreed, thought Tiz was going to whip by and then a couple of others too.
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
didn't play him bcuz of the post
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Looking at the chart for the race:
2:00.61 is a really, really good time for Authentic, especially with a 1:10.23 first six furlongs. American Pharoah ran 2:03 on a fast track after 1:11+ for 6f.
Apologies to Timh for going 0 for 2 on the H2H. Thankfully Thousands Words was scratched to eliminate the chance of being 0-4. South Bend actually pulled alongside Major Fed on the turn but then stopped in the stretch to finish DFL.
Not a big surprise that 16, 17 and 18 were all in the super, and Max Player rounding out the Hi-5 was not a surprise either. Mr. Big News finishing third was the shocker. A hidden factor was the decision to give Saez the mount. He had ridden the horse only once before, pulling off an upset win at Oaklawn in April at 46/1 where he made a huge move on the far turn against a torrid pace, moving from 9th to 2nd and then passing Farmington Road in the stretch for the win. So what does Saez do in the Derby? The exact same move! He pushes Mr. Big News into a drive at the start of the turn and moves him from 9th to 3rd by the top of the stretch. This time he wasn't good enough to attack the top two, but with Honor AP and Max Player spinning out of the turn on 9th and 11th, he had more than enough left in the tank to hold 3rd.
Money Moves was probably the most disappointing considering he was bet down to 13/1, He was within about 3 lengths of the lead after 6 furlongs, but that sub 1:11 cooked him and he faded from sixth to twelfth on the turn.
2:00.61 is a really, really good time for Authentic, especially with a 1:10.23 first six furlongs. American Pharoah ran 2:03 on a fast track after 1:11+ for 6f.
Apologies to Timh for going 0 for 2 on the H2H. Thankfully Thousands Words was scratched to eliminate the chance of being 0-4. South Bend actually pulled alongside Major Fed on the turn but then stopped in the stretch to finish DFL.
Not a big surprise that 16, 17 and 18 were all in the super, and Max Player rounding out the Hi-5 was not a surprise either. Mr. Big News finishing third was the shocker. A hidden factor was the decision to give Saez the mount. He had ridden the horse only once before, pulling off an upset win at Oaklawn in April at 46/1 where he made a huge move on the far turn against a torrid pace, moving from 9th to 2nd and then passing Farmington Road in the stretch for the win. So what does Saez do in the Derby? The exact same move! He pushes Mr. Big News into a drive at the start of the turn and moves him from 9th to 3rd by the top of the stretch. This time he wasn't good enough to attack the top two, but with Honor AP and Max Player spinning out of the turn on 9th and 11th, he had more than enough left in the tank to hold 3rd.
Money Moves was probably the most disappointing considering he was bet down to 13/1, He was within about 3 lengths of the lead after 6 furlongs, but that sub 1:11 cooked him and he faded from sixth to twelfth on the turn.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Gandy I played the last DD and had Digital Age at 8-1 with 16, 17 in Derby. Was painful to watch the stretch, as Tiz just didn't have the drive left in him and kept drifting a little right....I just had that bad feeling watching him that he wasn't going to get there. I enjoy trying to figure this game out a little bit, but you guys are really accomplished horse handicappers and I really appreciate your posts and insights. Look forward to Preakness and Breeders.
