Kentucky Derby Week...
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
Art Collector OUT
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
You nailed the morning line. Gonna be tough to get value if he wins.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Pretty balanced field pace wise - 4 Early horses, 6 Early/Pressers, 4 Pressers, 4 Sustainers. Tiz the Law should be able to sit tight behind Authentic and NY Traffic and make his move on the far turn. Honor AP and Money Moves will get first run, then its a question of whether a good presser or sustainer like South Bend or Max Player has what it takes.
At first glance the price horses that interest me on the exotics are NY Traffic at 20/1, Money Moves at 30/1, South Bend at 50/1, Max Player at 30/1, Enforceable at 30/1 and Sole Volante at 30/1. Get two of those into the super with Tiz the Law and either Honor AP or Authentic and the payout could be OK. Get Honor AP, Money Moves or Authentic on top and the payouts should be nice.
Will go through horse by horse later in week.
At first glance the price horses that interest me on the exotics are NY Traffic at 20/1, Money Moves at 30/1, South Bend at 50/1, Max Player at 30/1, Enforceable at 30/1 and Sole Volante at 30/1. Get two of those into the super with Tiz the Law and either Honor AP or Authentic and the payout could be OK. Get Honor AP, Money Moves or Authentic on top and the payouts should be nice.
Will go through horse by horse later in week.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
2 - Max Player - The best looking of the sustainer choices IMO. Winner of the Withers, then two clunk up 3rds in the Belmont and Travers. Has improved his speed figure every race in his five race career. Moves from Rice to Assmussen barn, which is a little bit of an upgrade. Had a sharp 5 furlong work on 8/24 at Churchill, so he's shown he can get over the surface. Blew past the Withers field after seeing a hot pace, did not see the same in the Belmont or Travers but still kept coming. Definite exotics play, will probably see lower odds than his 30/1 morning line. Has a puncher's chance at the win.
3 - Enforceable - Stone cold closer won the Lecomte despite an average pace, then was left with too much to do in a slow paced Risen Star. Was a decently bet but a non factor in the Blue Grass and La Derby. Speed figures seem to have topped out about 10 lengths too slow compared to the prime contenders. Looks easily dismiss-able against this field.
4 - Storm the Court - The Juvenile winner last year, 0 for 5 this year, hasn't been able to put that magic run together. Trainer seems unsure how to get this guy back on track, tried him on turf last time with mild results. Has needed to be right at the front early to get his two wins, but that will be a tall order against the likes of Authentic, NY Traffic and King G. If he's leading heading into the first turn you can bet the pace is red hot. He's a toss for me.
5 - Major Fed - Had a good effort in the Indiana Derby last out but speed numbers are a little slow to make him a win contender. 2nd strike is he's been a non-factor in two tries at Churchill. 3rd strike is the barn and jockey are both small time players. Rosario rode him twice but decided running NYRA claimers this week is the place to be. If he can match his last effort he has a shot at 3rd or 4th. But otherwise pass.
7- Money Moves - Lightly raced, still improving heading into his fourth race for Pletcher. Takes the big leap here from n2x to the bright lights. Kind of a mystery. If the field was really weak he might be worth a flyer but Tiz the Law, Honor AP and Authentic have proven their mettle. I'm going to pass on him for the win but he could be a Danza type and finish in the money.
8- South Bend - Wasn't really thought of as a Derby type horse, running grass races in February before the pandemic kicked in. then ran a good second to Dean Martin in the Ohio Derby and picked up more points with his fourth in the Travers small field. And so here we are. The Travers graded out with really strong speed numbers, which puts South Bend in the top half of this field speed wise. He still finished 9+ lengths behind Tiz the Law and a couple of lengths behind closer Max Player. Still, despite those grass starts, he's 3 for 6 on fast tracks and 2 for 3 at Churchill. Put a tiring pace on the field and this one could be a good exotics play at a big number.
9 - Mr. Big News - Don't see much to like here. Took four tries to break his maiden and was bigger than 5/1 in all of them. Went right to the Risen Star and was a so-so fifth. Scored an upset in the slop at Oaklawn and then was basically a no show in the Blue Grass. He's a closer who doesn't make up all that much ground late. Another what-the-hell type if the tracks gets sloppy. Otherwise he's a pass.
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Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
10 - Thousand Words - The higher priced Baffert runner, scored an upset win over Honor AP in the Shared Belief, kinda having his way on the front end in a field of just four. He has his supporters, but when tracking solid paces in his previous three outings he was clearly beaten by Uncle Chuck, faded badly in the Oaklawn slop, and finished well behind Authentic, Honor AP and Storm the Court in the San Felipe. Is his most recent sign of a new horse? Or was that your one chance to catch him at a price. I tend to think its the latter. Maybe an exotics chance.
11 - Necker Island - 0 for 7 in 2020, but last two were show finishes in midwest derbies, finishing behind Major Fed and Attachment Rate, two horses with no chance to win. That should tell you all you need to know.
12 - Sole Volante - Really liked this horse in the Tampa Derby and then he got dusted by King Guilermo. Came back to win a decent one turn mile race at Gulfstream, but then laid an egg at the Belmont. Has been training on turf since the Belmont, so I can only assume he'll end up back on the lawn after this race. Has a really nice closing kick that will aid him on the grass (he's 2 for 2 there) and if the pace is right he could find himself in the money here, but Luca will need to pass 14-15 in the last quarter mile to do it. Churchill is kind track to good grass horses (see Animal Kingdom).
13 - Attachment Rate - Has shown improvement in the last two months but is still many lengths behind the contenders on speed numbers. Is 0 for 2 at Churchill, and still qualifies for non-winners of two. Has lost ground down the stretch in his last two going 9 furlongs, so you have to wonder if he'll be OK going 10. 50/1 on the morning line and rightly so. Pass.
14 - Winning Impression - Another 50/1 shot, has been in bad form of late finishing well back in the same midwest derbies were Necker Island was 3rd. He does have the longshot Dallas Stewart factor going for him, and if there were rain in the forecast I'd be all over him as an exotics play since his two career wins were on off tracks. But the forecast is for a fast track so this guy's poor speed numbers make him a pass.
15 - NY Traffic - Now in the last four post positions things get interesting! NY Traffic comes off a big Haskell effort, almost stealing the race from Authentic in the final jumps. Jockey Paco Lopez is known as one of the hardest charging jocks in the game, so you can be sure this guy is going to be go go go right from the start. He has shown a tenaciousness in the stretch, rarely losing ground despite being in the vanguard most races. Reminds me of Firing Line from the American Pharoah triple crown. Should be right on the pace and in the top 3 at the top of the stretch. Question will be if he can hold his ground. I don't seem him winning as his distance breeding is suspect, but will definitely use in exotics.
16 - Honor A.P. - 2nd choice on morning line has Zenyatta connections of Shirreffs and Money Mike. After finishing behind Authentic in the San Felipe he avenged that loss in the Santa Anita Derby. But then he was unable to corral Thousand Words in the Shared Belief at Del Mar. 2nd-1st-2nd-1st-2nd - You are here. Should get a great trip tucked in behind NY Traffic and saving ground around the turns. Prime win contender.
17 - Tiz the Law - our favorite draws the only post position never to have won at Churchill. He's had a super 2020 campaign so far, with 3 Grade 1 wins and all of them by at least 3 lengths. Manny will have to work out a trip behind the front runners but he's deserving favorite, although 3/5 in an 17 or 18 horse field is a bit steep.
18 - Authentic - Baffert's main burner gets Johnny V in the reins and a quarter mile from the gate to establish position at the front of the field. Out of Into Mischief, there's question as to how he'll handle the 10 furlongs, as he's drifted and lost ground down the stretch in both 9 furlong efforts. If the pace is strong as expected he could be gassed by the time they spin out of the turn. It's hard to dismiss the best horse left in the barn of a two-time triple crown trainer, especially one that's 4 for 5 with a 2nd as his worst race, being piloted by a Hall of Fame jockey, but you need to break some eggs in a field this large and this is a reasonable stand against.
11 - Necker Island - 0 for 7 in 2020, but last two were show finishes in midwest derbies, finishing behind Major Fed and Attachment Rate, two horses with no chance to win. That should tell you all you need to know.
12 - Sole Volante - Really liked this horse in the Tampa Derby and then he got dusted by King Guilermo. Came back to win a decent one turn mile race at Gulfstream, but then laid an egg at the Belmont. Has been training on turf since the Belmont, so I can only assume he'll end up back on the lawn after this race. Has a really nice closing kick that will aid him on the grass (he's 2 for 2 there) and if the pace is right he could find himself in the money here, but Luca will need to pass 14-15 in the last quarter mile to do it. Churchill is kind track to good grass horses (see Animal Kingdom).
13 - Attachment Rate - Has shown improvement in the last two months but is still many lengths behind the contenders on speed numbers. Is 0 for 2 at Churchill, and still qualifies for non-winners of two. Has lost ground down the stretch in his last two going 9 furlongs, so you have to wonder if he'll be OK going 10. 50/1 on the morning line and rightly so. Pass.
14 - Winning Impression - Another 50/1 shot, has been in bad form of late finishing well back in the same midwest derbies were Necker Island was 3rd. He does have the longshot Dallas Stewart factor going for him, and if there were rain in the forecast I'd be all over him as an exotics play since his two career wins were on off tracks. But the forecast is for a fast track so this guy's poor speed numbers make him a pass.
15 - NY Traffic - Now in the last four post positions things get interesting! NY Traffic comes off a big Haskell effort, almost stealing the race from Authentic in the final jumps. Jockey Paco Lopez is known as one of the hardest charging jocks in the game, so you can be sure this guy is going to be go go go right from the start. He has shown a tenaciousness in the stretch, rarely losing ground despite being in the vanguard most races. Reminds me of Firing Line from the American Pharoah triple crown. Should be right on the pace and in the top 3 at the top of the stretch. Question will be if he can hold his ground. I don't seem him winning as his distance breeding is suspect, but will definitely use in exotics.
16 - Honor A.P. - 2nd choice on morning line has Zenyatta connections of Shirreffs and Money Mike. After finishing behind Authentic in the San Felipe he avenged that loss in the Santa Anita Derby. But then he was unable to corral Thousand Words in the Shared Belief at Del Mar. 2nd-1st-2nd-1st-2nd - You are here. Should get a great trip tucked in behind NY Traffic and saving ground around the turns. Prime win contender.
17 - Tiz the Law - our favorite draws the only post position never to have won at Churchill. He's had a super 2020 campaign so far, with 3 Grade 1 wins and all of them by at least 3 lengths. Manny will have to work out a trip behind the front runners but he's deserving favorite, although 3/5 in an 17 or 18 horse field is a bit steep.
18 - Authentic - Baffert's main burner gets Johnny V in the reins and a quarter mile from the gate to establish position at the front of the field. Out of Into Mischief, there's question as to how he'll handle the 10 furlongs, as he's drifted and lost ground down the stretch in both 9 furlong efforts. If the pace is strong as expected he could be gassed by the time they spin out of the turn. It's hard to dismiss the best horse left in the barn of a two-time triple crown trainer, especially one that's 4 for 5 with a 2nd as his worst race, being piloted by a Hall of Fame jockey, but you need to break some eggs in a field this large and this is a reasonable stand against.
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Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Recap:
Win choices in the multi races - A: 16, 17, No Bs, C: 2, 6
Worth using in spots 2-4 - 8, 10, 15
Worth using in spots 3-4 - 5, 7, 12
For the $1 superfecta I'll look at keying 16 & 17 First/third and use the others in the second/fourth spots: 16, 17 / 2, 6, 8, 10, 15 / 16, 17 / 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 15
Will also play $0,50 tris using 2, 6 on top with 16, 17 keyed: 2, 6 / 16, 17 / 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 15, 16, 17 and 2, 6 / 2, 6, 8, 10, 15, 16, 17 / 16, 17
If 6 is scratched I may throw Authentic back in as a replacement.
Win choices in the multi races - A: 16, 17, No Bs, C: 2, 6
Worth using in spots 2-4 - 8, 10, 15
Worth using in spots 3-4 - 5, 7, 12
For the $1 superfecta I'll look at keying 16 & 17 First/third and use the others in the second/fourth spots: 16, 17 / 2, 6, 8, 10, 15 / 16, 17 / 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 15
Will also play $0,50 tris using 2, 6 on top with 16, 17 keyed: 2, 6 / 16, 17 / 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 15, 16, 17 and 2, 6 / 2, 6, 8, 10, 15, 16, 17 / 16, 17
If 6 is scratched I may throw Authentic back in as a replacement.
aplous
Donkey Hater
Ran a good 2nd to Art Collector at Ellis.....had a tough post at CD in May and wasn't awful......distance shouldn't be an issue. Of all the big prices I guess I like him best to hit the board
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
My A-B list for the Oaks Day pick 5:
Race 8 - A: 1,7 B: 5
Race 9 - A: 2,3 B: 1,6,8
Race 10 - A: 1,2,5,6 B: 3
Race 11 - A: 1,8 B: 2,6
Race 12 - A: 1,5 B: 3,4
I'll probably play a Pick 5 with the A's and roll B-A-A $1 pick 3's. There are a lot of obvious favorites on Friday but there's always one upset that pops in.
Race 8 - A: 1,7 B: 5
Race 9 - A: 2,3 B: 1,6,8
Race 10 - A: 1,2,5,6 B: 3
Race 11 - A: 1,8 B: 2,6
Race 12 - A: 1,5 B: 3,4
I'll probably play a Pick 5 with the A's and roll B-A-A $1 pick 3's. There are a lot of obvious favorites on Friday but there's always one upset that pops in.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
I'll be leaning and rooting for Swiss Skydiver but it's suicidal to leave Gamine off the tickets. Speech is in fine form and should be respected. Shedares likes the Churchill track but I look at the Bris numbers and she's just too slow. I'd rather circle back to Donna Veloce as a price play, she was so good over the winter then fell off the map for 6 months. She's been training well at Delmar and six months at 3YO can show a big difference.
aplous
Donkey Hater
In R11 Monomoy Girl will be a single on a couple small tickets for me. 1, 2, 4, 6 will be C's for me.
Also like Attachment Rate. Long shot for sure & Tiz should win. But like AR as bomb to run well. Showed sneaky speed in last with at Talamo. Would like to see him press again.
aplous
Donkey Hater
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Here are the best bets for the Kentucky Derby
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/09/04/kentucky-derby-picks-best-bets/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/09/04/kentucky-derby-picks-best-bets/
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Hmm, must've read my posts.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Yes, looked to me like he never asked him to run until too late and Beau Recall was rolling at that point. Nice ride for Beau Recall.
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