Kentucky Derby 2018

GameHunter

GameHunter

Pretty much a regular
2018 KENTUCKY DERBY

Many different people will read this from sophisticated horse aficionados to some who watch one race per year. For the casual fans, please understand in a race like this, the best horse doesn’t always win. There are so many factors to consider like pace of the race, positioning, traffic, track condition, distance and many others. Think about a mile and a quarter human race and put yourself in it. Let’s say you had the lead after a half mile and had been setting a slow, casual pace up to that point. You’d still have a lot of “gas left in the tank” and it would be difficult for the others at the back to gain ground late. Conversely, if you had the lead after a half mile yet had been facing all sorts of competition and had to fight to fend everyone off early on, you might already be on “fumes”, which would set the race up for other runners at the back of the pack. That sums up a lot about horse racing right there. Now, when handicapping a race, the key it not necessarily to pick the most likely horse to win the race, rather to find the best value. In this year’s Derby, one could say that Justified is the most likely horse to win this race. That is why he is the favorite and his odds will be the shortest; however, the key may be to find a horse that may be slightly less likely to win, but based upon his much higher odds, offers the best value. Simply put, let’s say there was a three horse race and I told you #1 would win 50% of the time, #2 will win 30% of the time and #3 will win 20% of the time. Who would you pick to win? If you answered the question already, you are getting left back to repeat this course. You don’t have enough information. The key to betting on horse racing is VALUE and you would need to know more about the odds to ascertain where the value is. Now, let me add in the odds in this fictitious horse race, #1 is 1:2 odds, #2 is 2-1 odds and #3 is 6 to 1. So, if we run this race 100 times, and you bet $2 to win on each, #1 would be a losing proposition (-$50) winning 50% of the time, #2 would be a losing proposition (-$20) winning 30% of the time and #3 would be a winning proposition (+$40) winning 20% of the time. So the best value would be #3 despite the fact that he is the least likely to win.

Lesson: Look for the best value.

Now on to this year’s Run for the Roses, the most exciting two minutes in sports. You don’t necessarily have to agree with my selections but feel free to use this guide and video links to formulate your own opinions and to enjoy the Derby.


#1 FIRENZE FIRE - Winner of the G1 Jerome at Aqueduct at 2:5 odds at a mile; albeit in a field of 6 in the mud.
Was bearing in throughout the stretch. Was an uninspiring 2nd in a 5 horse field at Aqueduct in the Withers. Looked much better as a two year old winning his first two starts and later on winning the G1 Champagne. Has tailed off as a three year old and comes in off two lackluster 4th place finishes. The #1 post in the Derby is probably the worst draw you could have. Not fast enough and showing a pattern of regression. He’s a complete toss for me.

#2 FREE DROP BILLY – Small chestnut colt that should love extra distance. Won the G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland
as a two year old but flopped at the Breeders Cup in the Juvenile after making a strong middle move up the dead rail. Steady pattern as a three year old. Several of his early races found him pinned down on the inside and dealing with traffic so this position in the #2 post is nothing new for him. His sheet numbers are decent and he’s got a shot to hit the bottom of the superfecta ticket at long odds. Has hit the board in 7 out of 8 career races.

#3 PROMISES FULFILLED – Speedball, who should be on the lead early. Won both his two year old races in wire-to-wire fashion and then won the G2 Fountain of Youth as he got to the front and set a very comfortable pace
. It was a different story in the G1 Florida Derby, won by Audible (see below) where he set a fast pace, a 1st quarter of 21.95 on a dead rail, and was inhaled in the far turn and went completely backwards. Will be on the lead as far as he can go but cannot see him being close in the end.

#4 – FLAMEAWAY – Has won on turf, synthetic, dirt, wet and fast surfaces so he certainly is versatile. Has the most wins (5) of any horse in this field. Has some decent early speed but hasn’t had to contend with the type of speed he will see here in the Derby. Was consistent as a two year old but sheet numbers were slow. Wired the filed in the G3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa in February in an absolutely scintillating stretch duel in a field of six
He has improved a lot as a three year old but he would need to improve even further to compete here. Can’t see him improving enough to hit the ticket here but should give a decent effort.

#5 – AUDIBLE – Made his first start on September 27th at Belmont and in a 6 ½ furlong event, was so far back early, he wasn’t even on the screen. How he finished 3rd was absolutely incredible. He won his next two at Aqueduct and then was super-impressive winning the G1 Holy Bull at Gulfstream by 5+ lengths in February
utilizing early speed to get good positioning. He benefited from an extremely fast pace in the G1 Florida Derby set by Promises Fulfilled and came from the back of the pack with a strong move to win by three lengths https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SMGyCc3Y0Q Has shown versatility and one of the strongest closing kicks in this field. Only two starts this year. Castellano is a savvy pilot, who could find him a ground saving trip. Longer distance is a question mark. Said to be training well. #5 post has the most wins in the Kentucky Derby. Three of last 5 Derbies have been won by the Florida Derby winner, including the last two. A strong contender.

#6 - GOOD MAGIC - $1 Million dollar purchase at the Keeneland Yearling Sale in 2016 was always meant to be a good one. Lost his first career start but was ambitiously entered next in the G1 Champagne at Belmont in his 2nd race and he ran a solid second. If that wasn’t ambitious enough, his trainer Chad Brown next entered him in the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile as a maiden and he crushed them https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce30z5aHLA4. Took time off until March and caught a slow pace to chase in his first race back and was an uninspiring 3rd. Then came back to win the Bluegrass at Keeneland in impressive fashion. Solid sheet numbers, lightly race and fresh, good pedigree for distance and outstanding connections despite the fact that Chad Brown has yet to win the Derby. Training very well. Should be decent value. My top choice.

#7 – JUSTIFY – A perfect 3 wins in 3 career race but must overcome the “Apollo Factor.” No horse since 1882 (136 years) has won the Kentucky Derby, who was un-raced as a 2 year old. In his first career race in mid-February at Santa Anita, he fought off a two pronged attack and won by 9+ lengths with an outstanding 104 Beyer figure, the highest figure at that time by any three year old this year. After an impressive six length win in an allowance race, Justify showed his true mettle winning the Santa Anita Derby handily over Bolt D’Oro https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ku4FWV1L9dU. He has outstanding early speed and has demonstrated an ability to pull away deep in the strength, which means going long won’t be a problem. He has posted triple figure Beyers in all 3 races. He has basically been untested in short fields. Today he must overcome the curse of Apollo and contend with a very talented group of horses in a large field. He’s certainly a major contender but he’s a vulnerable favorite. This is his 4th race since mid-February and was bearing in a bit in the stretch in his last. Must be used on tickets but I’m trying to beat him while using him.
 
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#8 – LONE SAILOR – If it’s raining and muddy, you have to respect a “Sailor.” In his second career start, he showed he loves the wet going romping by 11 lengths at Saratoga
Unfortunately, that was the “Sailor’s” only win. He flopped in his first race of 2018 when blinkers were added and they have since been removed. However, he opened some eyes with a strong 2nd in the Louisiana Derby where he received a great ground-saving trip and fast pace to close into. His sheet numbers are a bit slow for top honors but he could hit the bottom of the superfecta ticket with a clean trip. Trainer Tom Amoss has been excelling lately.

#9 – HOFBURG – This colt has the least racing experience in the Derby field with only three career starts, but he has flashed exciting potential this year and is an intriguing under-the-radar horse. He made his career debut back in September at Saratoga, finishing fourth in a seven-furlong maiden race, and then was away for six months before gamely winning a 1 1/16-mile maiden race on the Fountain of Youth undercard at Gulfstream Park. His connections decided to make a big class jump by starting him in the Florida Derby, and Hofburg validated that choice by posting a solid runner-up finish behind Audible, hitting the wire 7 ¾ lengths clear of third-place finisher Mississippi. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott rarely brings 3-year-olds to the Derby and is renowned for patiently developing his charges, so this colt’s presence under indicates just how highly his connections think of him. His pedigree is suitable to the Derby’s mile-and-a-quarter distance, Well rested. He’s still a bit “green” and his sheet numbers are a bit too slow for top honors but he’s another who can fill out the superfecta at a nice price.

#10 – MY BOY JACK – Taking a lot of “wise guy” money in the early betting. Was bought for $20,000 as a yearling by the Desormeaux outfit that specialized in finding young values that have talent running long distances. Late closing colt is the most experienced horse in the field having run 10 times with 3 wins and 8 in the money finishes. Won both the Southwest and G3 Lexington
impressively. Has developed nicely from his two year old campaign but it’s tough to see him improving more in the Derby considering this is his 5th race in 2018 and he’s coming in off just three weeks’ rest. However, it’s worth closely watching his 3rd pace finish in the Louisiana Derby (See video under #19 Noble Indy). My Boy Jack stormed from dead last and out of the picture to circle the field in an impressive third place finish. He may be small in stature but he can gobble up ground late. He has decent sheet numbers but I find it hard to get excited about his chances due to the recent workload but that explosive move in the Louisiana Derby has me cautious and has me sprinkling him in on the bottom of the superfectas.

#11 – BOLT D’ORO – Looked like the possible Derby favorite as a two year old, posting the best speed figure of any two year old but was beaten by Good Magic in the BC Juvenile after a horrendous trip and more recently was beaten in the San Felipe
but moved up to 1st via a disqualification and was beaten soundly by Justified in the Santa Anita Derby. Was off a bit slowly out of the gate in a few of his early races and he can’t afford that mistake here. Missed some training time in early January and cut his front right hoof in the Santa Anita Derby. He’s bred to go long and is a definite contender but will need to go back to his two year old form. Strong sheet numbers. Have to use.

#12 – ENTICED – Enters the Derby off of a runner-up finish to Vino Rosso in the Wood Memorial. In that race, he was used hard out of the gate, chased the leader and then aggressively made the first move into a collapsing place and was fouled down the stretch., where he was solidly bumped in midstretch. He’s an intriguing longshot to hit the ticket in the Derby. His pedigree for the Derby’s classic distance is one of the best in the field, and he owns a win over Churchill Downs’ main track coming in last fall’s Grade 2 Jockey Club Stakes. On the negative side, his speed figures are a cut below the top contenderand his best career race, by far, came in the one-turn mile Gotham Stakes
at Aqueduct on March 3, one race before his Wood Memorial start. Godolphin owned horses have not been in the money in their 10 Derby tries. And the last 14 horses in the Derby coing from the Wood Memorial failed to hit the ticket. Regardless, he could hit the ticket at huge odds.

#13 – BRAVAZO – After two wins to start 2018, including a game nose win in the Risen Star, he turned in puzzlingly poor performance in the Louisiana Derby, finishing eighth and beaten by 21 ¼ lengths. In that race, he traveled four wide through the backstretch in a stalking position, lugged out entering the far turn, and then folded. His prior two wins as a 3-year-old came after he closely pressed the pace, but he settled farther back in the Louisiana Derby and that may have cost him. He has failed to show up in a few races, which is a concern. He’s not fast enough. Not for me.

#14 – MENDELSSOHN - $3 million purchase as a yearling at Keeneland ($1 million more than any horse at the sale) is the “X” factor. Won the BC Juvenile Turf last year
and then switched to dirt in late March in the UAE Derby in Dubai and absolutely crushed them in Secretariat-like fashion by 18 lengths in an eye popping performance. It was a close race to the ¾’s pole and his acceleration from there was scintillating; worth watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=labLfA2WBDo Some mitigate the effort as that track at UAE was very speed favoring but it was still spectacular. However, UAE winners traveling to the US have nor fared well in the Derby. Then again, he won the BC Juvenile Turf traveling to the US. No European horse has ever won the Derby although he’s not your typical European though as he was bought in Kentucky where he returns for the Derby but then was shipped and trained in Europe under Aidan O’Brien. If he runs anywhere near to what he did in the UAE, he wins this but there’s a chance he bounces backwards here, in which case nothing would surprise me. In a strange way, I will use him on top and at times, not at all.

#15 – INSTILLED REGARD – This California-based colt will need to step up his game considerably to be a factor in the Derby. He emerged last year with an eye-catching maiden win at Santa Anita Park in his third career start and then strung together back-to-back strong stakes performances in the Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (where he was placed second after Solomini was disqualified) and in the Lecomte Stakes. His 3 ¼-length score in the Lecomte after being shipped to Fair Grounds placed him among the leading Derby contenders for a few weeks, but he subsequently turned in a disappointing fourth-place showing in the Risen Star. Too slow. Hopefully he takes lots of pictures to show his friends on social media he was at the Derby as they may not see him in the picture when they turn for home.

#16 – MAGNUM MOON – Along with Justify, this colt will put the “curse of Apollo” to the sternest test this year since Curlin started in the 2007 Derby. He broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 13 by 4 ½ furlongs in a six-furlong race, and has not been challenged in three subsequent starts, stretching out in distance each time. He drew away from talented horses Quip and Solomini with ease in the Arkansas Derby https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqOYtHbW8vg winning by four lengths despite drifting to the center of the track in midstretch while continuing to run strongly through the finish line. He may have more maturing to do before reaching his full potential, In his last, he set a pedestrian pace and drifted badly, which raises some concern. This is his fifth race of the year and comes in off only three weeks' rest. Some could make a case for him but I can only use at bottom of superfecta tickets.
 
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#17 – SOLOMINI – Well-bred colt co-owned by Zayat Stables enters the Derby after finishing third behind Magnum Moon and Quip in the Arkansas Derby, a race in which he continued to show immaturity and erratic racing action. In that race, he failed to switch leads in the stretch and could not overtake pace-pressing Quip, who held second by a neck. He’s gone up against several of the best horses in his age group since last fall and in six career starts, he’s finished no worse than third, one of those coming when disqualified from first in the Cash Call Futurity
for bumping in deep stretch. But it’s a major concern as to how he’ll fare when racing in heavy traffic against 19 other horses in the Derby. Competitive but sheet numbers are second tier and mid-pack here. Could hit bottom of superfecta but tough to get excited about.

#18 – VINO ROSSO – After two modest efforts in stakes races at Tampa Bay Downs – third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes; fourth in the South Tampa Bay Derby – he responded to a change in scenery edging clear from Enticed (after bumping that foe) and winning the Wood Memorial
in a race that set up perfectly for a closer like him. Could hit bottom of superfecta ticket but horsee coming from the Wood Memorial have not had great recent success at the Derby and I liked Enticed's effort in the Wood better than him.

#19 – NOBLE INDY – One of Todd Pletcher’s four Derby starters and probably the one receiving the least fanfare despite winning three of four career races. Was sensational winning the Louisiana Derby
. He was contesting a hot early pace that collapsed. He was passed in the stretch and came back on to win. Now six weeks later, he draws the #19 post and has to outduel some outstanding horses and then hold off a cavalry charge. He should be an early pace factor but Pletcher’s horses usually don’t run top efforts in the Derby and he would need to improve. Tough for me to consider.

#20 – COMBATANT – This Steve Asmussen trained colt made he Derby field after South Tampa Bay Derby winner Quip was taken out of consideration and pointed to the Preakness Stakes. He gives a consistent effort and has never finished worse than fourth in seven career starts – but he’s only won once, taking a one-turn mile maiden race at Churchill Downs last fall. Consistent sheet numbers but he’s a bit of a methodical closer lacking super acceleration and probably not fast enough to compete to hit the ticket. Throw in Post #20 and just three weeks off since last race and it’s tough to make a case for him.

My selections in order:

#6 GOOD MAGIC

#11 BOLT D’ORO

#14 MENDELSSOHN

#7 JUSTIFY

#5 AUDIBLE


I don’t think they can win but will sprinkle in:

#9 HOFBURG

#12 ENTICED

#16 MAGNUM MOON

#18 VIN ROSSO
 
Impressive stuff, GH, thanks for setting the stage! Over the years I've noted that during two day meets such as this (and BC), trainers tend to hit (and miss) in bunches. My sense is that Chad Brown is not having a good meet so far.
 
Great stuff as always GH. BOL on it today, that 14 sure seems like such a wild card
 
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