Kentucky Derby 135

Clear Vision

Active Member
I know most everyone here focuses mainly on sports and I do as well, but there's a few days out of the year I bet on the horses (Breeders Cup, Triple Crown, whenever I get up to Keeneland) so I wanted to get some discussion going on the Derby.

To me one of the key storylines is whether Regal Ransom runs and whether Join in the Dance makes it in (22nd in earnings), that'll determine what kind of pace there is. If Regal Ransom is the only one in the field then he'll be far and away the pacesetter, if Join in the Dance gets in then he should accompany him on the lead. I'll have more thoughts in the next couple weeks but to me that's something I'll be keeping an eye on, if Regal Ransom is the only true speed horse then there's gonna be a chance that he wires the field, he has that potential.

This year's field is a lot deeper than last year, there's a lot of solid horses unlike last year's field. Hopefully we can get some good discussion going on the Derby and more importantly make it profitable.
 
Good points and will definitely enjoy throwing some thoughts around before I head over to the ville. 1st thought... Choc Candy would definitely benefit from a hot pace! I can't believe I'm leaning to a polytrack horse (Pioneerofthenile). Should be a very, very good betting race! I can't see a fave being any lower than 7-2 and more likely 4-1 unless someone is really really working well. I will dfinitely be using Terrain on the bottom of my exotics. See ya around.
 
I have to delve deeper into it to determine who I like best. Dunkirk is the horse that shows the most potential to me, but then again, I was a big fan of his daddy.

I think this is the deepest and most talented 3-year old class we've had in at least five years (Smarty Jones, Birdstone 2004 closest thing to it)... could be a very entertaining race, but clear vision has a good point - we need a honest, yet not suicidal (Giacomo) pace....
 
I have to delve deeper into it to determine who I like best. Dunkirk is the horse that shows the most potential to me, but then again, I was a big fan of his daddy.

I think this is the deepest and most talented 3-year old class we've had in at least five years (Smarty Jones, Birdstone 2004 closest thing to it)... could be a very entertaining race, but clear vision has a good point - we need a honest, yet not suicidal (Giacomo) pace....


Favoring Dunkirk, you've gotta hope that Pletcher gets Join in the Dance in too to ensure that Regal Ransom isn't out front all by himself Papa Clem has the speed to run up front with Join in the Dance and Regal Ransom, but from watching the Arkansas Derby, I feel like he's going to try to stalk and will be in that group of I Want Revenge, Quality Road, and a few others that'll be moving together.

I agree with you Rex, this is a really deep group of 3 year olds and I doubt we're gonna see the favorite anything below 4-1. I think Quality Road is being overrated for his Florida Derby performance, I haven't gotten around to watching more replays or anything but Gulfstream has been really speed biased, it wasn't setup right for Dunkirk that day. I believe Pletcher even said had he known that, he would have run Dunkirk in the Wood. The quarter crack has to be worrisome for QR too, we saw how well running on a quarter crack worked out for Big Brown last year.

I'm looking forward to more discussion on this as we get closer to Derby time, I'm a relative novice at horse betting but from going to the races I've gotten pretty hooked on it and try to keep up with it pretty well. I'm sure there's some others that can give much more insight than I can.
 
I like Friesian Fire

Thoughts?

Good horse IMO. Could be overlooked a kittle. He should definitely love the distance from a breeding standpoint (A.P.Indy horse) and I will definitely look alot harder if there is any kind of wet track. Things not in his favor are that when he starts in the Derby it will be with 7wks in between races ??!?! And he has yet yet to run 1-1/8.... Both of them together seem hard to overcome and is alot of unknown from a stamina standpoint.
 
quality road's got a crack in his right front foot. from what i read he should be able to go, but things are still up in the air. he's expected to leave for churchill on tuesday, so we'll know probable by then. jerkens is hopeful they can breeze him by sunday.

as for the race, right now im on i want revenge. hes really closed well his last two out, with an impressive win at the wood memorial, after being stuck in the gate. not overly impressive fields in the wood and gotham, but overall i was impressed. one thing that concerns me is that he's 0-2 against pioneerof the nile. we'll see, still got a while to look things over...
 
Quality Road has apparently developed another quarter crack, not as bad as the first one, but I still don't see any way he's a threat in the race (if they're stupid enough to run him) with two quarter cracks. If he doesn't go, then Join in the Dance is in the field and my likely bet on Regal Ransom is probably a no go. I wanted Regal Ransom to have the lead to himself but it doesn't look like that's gonna work out.

Rex, things are shaping up for Dunkirk I think, especially with Join in the Dance getting in. Pletcher has his rabbit that's gonna keep Regal Ransom from running off with it, and Dunkirk sets up more as a closer than many of the other contenders. Like I said before, one of the key storylines leading into the Derby is gonna be how many speed horses get in, now it looks like it's gonna be 2 (Even if QR goes, I'm sure we'll see one of the top 20 not go), I think Pletcher is gonna come out the big winner not just for getting two horses in, but for setting up the race for his monster Dunkirk.

Right now, if I had to pick my earliest leans, I'd say they're (not in order)

1. Regal Ransom: Still hoping Join in the Dance doesn't get in, if he does then Regal Ransom loses a lot of luster to me.

2. Dunkirk: Continuing on what I said on RR, if Join in the Dance gets in then I think the pace sets up well for Dunkirk and I think this time he can seal the deal, unlike in the Florida Derby.

3. Papa Clem: Absolutely love this horse's pedigree, Smart Strike has sired some absolute beasts the last few years and I think Clem has the ability to go to the lead or stalk the pace. That versatility is appealing to me, he's got the speed to go up front but he can come off the pace as he did the Arkansas Derby.

I want revenge and pioneer of the nile are appealing as well, but I feel like they're going to be priced where I don't like them as well.
 
Quality Road has apparently developed another quarter crack, not as bad as the first one, but I still don't see any way he's a threat in the race (if they're stupid enough to run him) with two quarter cracks. If he doesn't go, then Join in the Dance is in the field and my likely bet on Regal Ransom is probably a no go. I wanted Regal Ransom to have the lead to himself but it doesn't look like that's gonna work out.

Rex, things are shaping up for Dunkirk I think, especially with Join in the Dance getting in. Pletcher has his rabbit that's gonna keep Regal Ransom from running off with it, and Dunkirk sets up more as a closer than many of the other contenders. Like I said before, one of the key storylines leading into the Derby is gonna be how many speed horses get in, now it looks like it's gonna be 2 (Even if QR goes, I'm sure we'll see one of the top 20 not go), I think Pletcher is gonna come out the big winner not just for getting two horses in, but for setting up the race for his monster Dunkirk.

Right now, if I had to pick my earliest leans, I'd say they're (not in order)

1. Regal Ransom: Still hoping Join in the Dance doesn't get in, if he does then Regal Ransom loses a lot of luster to me.

2. Dunkirk: Continuing on what I said on RR, if Join in the Dance gets in then I think the pace sets up well for Dunkirk and I think this time he can seal the deal, unlike in the Florida Derby.

3. Papa Clem: Absolutely love this horse's pedigree, Smart Strike has sired some absolute beasts the last few years and I think Clem has the ability to go to the lead or stalk the pace. That versatility is appealing to me, he's got the speed to go up front but he can come off the pace as he did the Arkansas Derby.

I want revenge and pioneer of the nile are appealing as well, but I feel like they're going to be priced where I don't like them as well.

Fire crushed Clem by 7.5 lengths in Louisianna and still had more in the tank?
http://southernliberalliving.com/?p=724
 
quality road is OUT for the derby. jerkens was unable to work him out today, after noticing quality road favoring his cracked foot. kind of dissapointing, but its the right move, obviously. still a strong field to look forward to saturday.
 
Also, I know its a week away, but 60% chance of rain for the derby

I hope not! A Wet Derby can get pretty messy... plus it is hard to read a form that is rain soaked.
Never too early to start looking at that... Friesan Fire beat Clem in the slop in LA and he will surely see his odds go down if the track comes up wet. Churchill crew is pretty amazing though... they can work that track especially on oaks & derby day and have a muddy track sealed and someties fast a couple races later... Can't recall exact yrs but they have done wonders in the past.
Hope to have some good insights up tomorrow or organize my stuff on the plane ride to KY on Wed. at worst.

Here is to hoping the winds blow that stuff through early for some nice weather Thurs/Fri/Sat!!
 
My horse Fire worked out real well today.

Friesan Fire blazes five furlongs in a bullet :57 4/5
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</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>Friesan Fire lit up the morning at Churchill (Ed Van Meter/Horsephotos.com)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>It was a frenetic Monday morning at Churchill Downs, with no fewer than nine Kentucky Derby (G1) hopefuls turning in their final major moves in advance of Saturday's Run for the Roses. Trainer Larry Jones had said he did not expect FRIESAN FIRE (A.P. Indy) to work as fast in his final Derby drill as Hard Spun did two years ago.
He was right. Louisiana Derby (G2) star Friesan Fire worked five furlongs in a bullet :57 4/5, the fastest of 26 works at the distance, with jockey Gabriel Saez up. Hard Spun had worked in :57 3/5 under jockey Mario Pino on the Monday of Derby Week, just five days before his sterling runner-up effort in the 2007 Derby.
"A fifth of a second off," Jones said, adding with a laugh, "that's good, people would have said I worked him too fast."
Working immediately after the renovation break over a fast track, Friesan Fire reeled off fractions of :11 1/5, :22 1/5, :33 3/5, :45 1/5 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.
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"I was very happy with it," Jones said. "Gabe said he thought he went in about a minute. If I could have written the perfect script, I would have had him gallop out in 1:12, but he has been watching those tents every day (on the backside) and I wanted to put the blinkers on to keep him more focused."
Jones, whose horses have run second in the past two editions of the Kentucky Derby, was asked if he felt the Derby gods might smile on him this year.
"I feel blessed to have run in the past two Kentucky Derbys and have horses run well," Jones said referring to Hard Spun and Eight Belles. "If the gods want to smile on me, I'm gonna grin from ear to ear."
Jones said Friesan Fire would walk Tuesday, jog Wednesday and then gallop up to Derby 135.
"Wednesday is going to be an easy day," Jones said. "He may go to the paddock and the gate and walk around and see some folks. We're fine (after this work); he wasn't blowing at all when he came back."
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</TD></TR><TR><TD align=left>Chocolate Candy passed the scene of a scary accident during his work (Ed Van Meter/Horsephotos.com)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>El Camino Real Derby (G3) victor CHOCOLATE CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]), most recently runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), drilled the second-fastest five furlongs in :59 1/5. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer made a beeline from Barn 42 to the clocker's stand on the Churchill Downs backside just before 8:30 a.m. (EDT) and the end of the track's renovation break, getting on the scene in time to watch Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith backtrack Chocolate Candy from the six-furlong gap to the eighth-pole, then turn and ease on in to a five-furlong workout.
As the work began to unfold on the backstretch near the five-eighths pole, a two-horse collision near the finish line occurred and sent track sirens wailing. It also sent Hollendorfer -- and everyone else at the track -- into moments of high anxiety. Fortunately for the Chocolate Candy connections the unhappy incident did not disrupt their business and the tall bay proceeded to carve out splits of :12, :23 3/5, :35 3/5 and :47, galloping out six furlongs in 1:12 4/5.
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"We both saw the horses down," Smith said afterward. "Luckily, it happened over by the outer rail. He (Chocolate Candy) just looked that way for a second, but he turned back and kept on going. We both were able to focus and complete what we had to do."
A slightly shaken Hollendorfer was happy to have the work and the incident behind him.
"We were lucky we got to finish the work," he said heading back to the barn. "So many things can happen. It is worrisome.
"I had told Mike 'Just like Santa Anita' (a reference to a :59 1/5 work turned in by the pair at the California track on April 12). He hit it right on. Now I think my horse has a chance to run well here. He can handle this track and now we know he can run well here. Handling the track is key and he's show us he can."
Smith had little doubt about that subject.
"Sure, he'll handle this track," the rider said. "He'll handle anything. He's a nice colt. His work today felt just like the one at Santa Anita. He's ready to go."
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</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>Pioneerof the Nile was on cruise control (Ed Van Meter/Horsephotos.com)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Regular exercise rider Joe Steiner guided Santa Anita Derby conqueror PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) through a five-furlong work in 1:01, also moments after the track reopened following the renovation break. The Bob Baffert colt posted the 11th-fastest time at the trip. Baffert watched the work from the front side of the track and, as is his custom, was in touch with the rider via radio.
Pioneerof the Nile cruised through fractions of :11 4/5, :23 4/5, :36 and :48 3/5. He was allowed to gallop out a long way and was timed in 1:13 2/5 for the six furlongs.
"He went really nice," Baffert said. "There was a lot of wind. He left the half-mile pole, went five-eighths and he galloped out pretty strong all the way around there. He was moving really well and looked comfortable over the track."
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Pioneerof the Nile has won all four of his starts on synthetic surfaces in California since being moved to Baffert's care late last year. The son of 2004 Kentucky Derby runner-up Empire Maker has trained well on dirt, but the Derby will be his debut on dirt.
"He's got a long stride as it is, but he really moves better over the dirt, I think," Baffert said. "His stride is just tremendous."
Baffert was pleased with the way the colt performed in his final breeze before the Derby.
"He did it pretty effortlessly," Baffert said. "I think he wanted to go a little faster; I wouldn't let him. I was really happy with the work. I'm really excited about the work."
Steiner gave the Santa Anita Derby winner high marks, too.
"It was a comfortable, smooth move," Steiner said. "He just kind of coasted around there and we let him gallop out on his own. He felt perfect."
Steiner, who has been a jockey for nearly 25 years, said he likes the way the colt is approaching the race.
"Mentally, he's focused, he's confident, he's calm," Steiner said. "The way you want a horse to act, he's shown everything. He's like a dream to gallop. He's very kind.
"I think the key at this point is being focused and confident. He's handling all the media and all that stuff around him. It doesn't faze him. And physically, he's right on. With the combination of the two, now it's up to luck."
Steiner said Pioneerof the Nile feels the same way to him on the dirt track at Churchill Downs and the synthetic surfaces in California.
"You couldn't ask a horse to be doing any better than this," Steiner said.
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</TD></TR><TR><TD align=left>Flying Private sped a quick half-mile (Ed Van Meter/Horsephotos.com)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>A trio of Todd Pletcher-trained Kentucky Derby possibles went through their final serious drills on Monday morning, putting a "put me in coach" spin on activities at Pletcher's Barn 38. Pletcher took up a post in the grandstand and oversaw the works, which began shortly after the renovation break ended at 8:30 a.m. when Hall of Fame jockey-turned-jockey-agent-and-sometimes-exercise-rider Angel Cordero Jr. guided JOIN IN THE DANCE (Sky Mesa) through a five-furlong workout timed in 1:00 1/5. The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) runner-up turned in the fifth-fastest move at the distance.
Join in the Dance now moves up to the 20th spot on the graded earnings list, with the defection of Quality Road (Elusive Quality), and could be a solid pace factor.
"He's an enthusiastic work horse, so it was good to see him settle and work well today," Pletcher said. "He should be ready now."
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Next from the Pletcher barn, just after 9 a.m., came two other Derby candidates, Lexington S. (G2) winner ADVICE (Chapel Royal) and Sham S. (G3) runner-up TAKE THE POINTS (Even the Score).
Advice went off first with exercise rider Kevin Willey up and covered four furlongs in :47 1/5, then galloped out an extra furlong in 1:00. He is already solidly "in" the Derby lineup based on graded earnings, should his connections -- the WinStar Farm crew of Bill Casner and Kenny Troutt -- decide they'd like a third horse in Derby 135. The Kentucky farm already has Hold Me Back (Giant's Causeway) and Mr. Hot Stuff (Tiznow) scheduled to run in the 10-furlong classic, so the thought of wheeling Advice back in two weeks off his Lexington tally has been debated.
"I got him (Advice) finishing up that work in :23 and one," Pletcher said. "It was a good move for him."
Shortly after Advice took care of business, exercise rider Horacio De la Paz had Take the Points ready to rumble five-eighths and he was joined once again by the unstarted potential star (he's by Storm Cat out of champion Serena's Song) Schramsberg, with Cordero on board. The pair had worked in company last week and they went at it again with the unraced chestnut youngster starting out a length or two in front as they went by the five-furlong marker.
Take the Points, who now sits in the 21st spot on the graded earnings list, took dead aim on his workmate around the turn and by the time he'd gone by the wire in 1:00 1/5, he was well clear and drawing out on the less-experienced colt, who was given a final time of 1:01 3/5.
"I was happy to see the work by Take the Points," Pletcher said. "He picked up his workmate and went right on by. He looked good doing it."
The trainer said decisions on who might -- and might not -- be entered in the Derby on Wednesday morning would be made Tuesday. Possible jockey assignments will be fixed then, too.
"We'll see how they come out of these works tomorrow morning," the trainer said. "We're happy with the overall activity today and it sets us up for lots of possibilities."
Lane's End S. (G2) runner-up FLYING PRIVATE (Fusaichi Pegasus) worked four furlongs in :47 2/5 for trainer D. Wayne Lukas after the renovation break . Robby Albarado, who has the mount for Derby 135, was aboard for the move that featured fractions of :23 4/5 for the quarter and :35 4/5 for three-eighths.
"He went well," Albarado said. "It was just a maintenance work with company. Wayne wanted to get a good finish and that's what we got."
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</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>Win Willy's exercise rider was aboard for a weighty reason (Ed Van Meter/Horsephotos.com)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Rebel S. (G2) upsetter WIN WILLY (Monarchos) came out on the track after the break and covered five furlongs in 1:02 2/5 for five furlongs. With exercise rider Eli Lopez aboard, Win Willy cruised through splits of :13 1/5, :25 3/5 and :37 4/5, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:15 3/5. "He looked good, went along nice and smooth," trainer Mac Robertson said. "It looked like he finished strong, which is what I wanted to see."
Robertson said he deliberately used his regular exercise rider, who weighs 140 pounds, rather than jockey Cliff Berry because that particular plan had worked before with Win Willy.
"Coming into the Rebel (on March 14 at Oaklawn), Eli breezed him three times, in what looked like slow times," Robertson said. "He went three-quarters in 1:15 4/5, then a half in :50, and a half in :51 2/5. But that set him up perfectly for the race, and he won big (by 2 1/4, going away).
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"Then, coming into the Arkansas Derby ([G2] on April 11), I had the jockey up in the breezes. It was just different for the horse. With Cliff up, he breezed a half in :48 2/5, and then a bullet half in :48 flat just before the race. And then, of course, he ran fourth in the race.
"So I just thought I'd go back to what worked for us earlier in the year, and had Eli breeze him at Oaklawn last week (a half in :51.20) and then again today.
"We've done all we can do, and now he's gonna belong in there, or he isn't."
MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone), expected to be Canada's first champion two-year-old in the Kentucky Derby starting gate since Talkin Man in 1995, drilled five furlongs in 1:02 under jockey Calvin Borel.
Mine That Bird was ponied to the five-eighths pole easily, broke off slowly for Borel, and was asked to run through the lane at the trainer's instructions. Churchill Downs clockers caught the Chip Woolley trainee in splits of :13, :25 2/5, :37 2/5 and :49 4/5, and a six-furlong gallop-out time of 1:13 1/5.
"Things went super," Woolley said afterward. "I'm really happy with my horse. It's pretty much exactly what I wanted -- he started slower and finished up super-strong. He came back to the barn really playing. That's as good as you are ever going to see him feeling. He's not an animated horse."
Mine That Bird will walk the shedrow Tuesday and "lope" up to the race the rest of the week. Woolley said his gelding may school in the starting gate Wednesday, but will not be schooling in the paddock during racing days this week.
Monday's exercise was delayed approximately 40 minutes because of an on-track accident that temporarily forced the track's closure. Woolley said Mine That Bird was just about to be bandaged and ready to go out when the closure announcement was made.
"Luckily we weren't all the way ready at the time," he said. "It's unfortunate for the horses and horsemen involved any time something like this happens. We just had to be patient."
It was a big morning for Borel, who also worked Kentucky Oaks favorite Rachel Alexandra just moments before being hustled to the Woolley barn via golf cart to partner with his Derby 135 mount.
 
Live here in the Ville and upset that so many horses are not running now. I think it is a carryover from Eight Belles last year and the negative media coverage it got. Trainers and owners aren't taking any chances, which may not be a bad thing.

I will be playing the Oaks/Derby double -- I'm going to single Rachel Alexandra (heavy favorite in Oaks) and trying to decide on 4 horses for the Derby. Right now, I got POTN, F Fire, Dunkirk and General Quarters. GQ will get me some good odds and I was at Keeneland to see him win the Bluegrass. I just hope he can continue it to get me a little bigger payday.

The favorites will be a little less value after some of the scratches, but still is a hard race to cap because of the amount of horses. It is supposed to rain here the rest of the week (raining now), so take that into account.
 
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<table width="530" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td>Post</td> <td>Horse</td> <td>Trainer</td> <td>Jockey</td> <td>Odds</td> </tr> <tr> <td>1</td> <td>West Side Bernie</td> <td>Kelly Breen</td> <td>Stewart Elliott</td> <td>30-1</td> </tr> <tr class="altrow"> <td>2</td> <td>Musket Man</td> <td>Derek Ryan</td> <td>Eibar Coa</td> <td>20-1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>3</td> <td>Mr. Hot Stuff</td> <td>Eoin Harty</td> <td>John Velazquez</td> <td>30-1</td> </tr> <tr class="altrow"> <td>4</td> <td>Advice</td> <td>Todd Pletcher</td> <td>Rene Douglas</td> <td>30-1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>5</td> <td>Hold Me Back</td> <td>Bill Mott</td> <td>Kent Desormeaux</td> <td>15-1</td> </tr> <tr class="altrow"> <td>6</td> <td>Friesan Fire</td> <td>Larry Jones</td> <td>Gabriel Saez</td> <td>5-1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>7</td> <td>Papa Clem</td> <td>Gary Stute</td> <td>Rafael Bejarano</td> <td>20-1</td> </tr> <tr class="altrow"> <td>8</td> <td>Mine That Bird</td> <td>Bennie Woolley</td> <td>Calvin Borel</td> <td>50-1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>9</td> <td>Join in the Dance</td> <td>Todd Pletcher</td> <td>Chris DeCarlo</td> <td>50-1</td> </tr> <tr class="altrow"> <td>10</td> <td>Regal Ransom</td> <td>Saeed bin Suroor</td> <td>Alan Garcia</td> <td>30-1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>11</td> <td>Chocolate Candy</td> <td>Jerry Hollendorfer</td> <td>Mike Smith</td> <td>20-1</td> </tr> <tr class="altrow"> <td>12</td> <td>General Quarters</td> <td>Tom McCarthy</td> <td>Julien Leparoux</td> <td>20-1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>13</td> <td>I Want Revenge</td> <td>Jeff Mullins</td> <td>Joe Talamo</td> <td>3-1</td> </tr> <tr class="altrow"> <td>14</td> <td>Atomic Rain</td> <td>Kelly Breen</td> <td>Joe Bravo</td> <td>50-1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>15</td> <td>Dunkirk</td> <td>Todd Pletcher</td> <td>Edgar Prado</td> <td>4-1</td> </tr> <tr class="altrow"> <td>16</td> <td>Pioneerof the Nile</td> <td>Bob Baffert</td> <td>Garrett Gomez</td> <td>4-1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>17</td> <td>Summer Bird</td> <td>Tim Ice</td> <td>Chris Rosier</td> <td>50-1</td> </tr> <tr class="altrow"> <td>18</td> <td>Nowhere to Hide</td> <td>Nick Zito</td> <td>Shaun Bridgmohan</td> <td>50-1</td> </tr> <tr> <td>19</td> <td>Desert Party</td> <td>Saeed bin Suroor</td> <td>Ramon Dominguez</td> <td>15-1</td> </tr> <tr class="altrow"> <td>20</td> <td>Flying Private</td> <td>D. Wayne Lukas</td> <td>Robby Albarado</td> <td>50-1</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
I follow this guy Rich Podolsky for sports stuff. Here's his writeup for this weekend.




Your Derby Winner: I Want Revenge; One to Avoid: Pioneer of the Nile
Nobody loves a longshot in the Derby more than me. Derby Day is a day for handicappers to make their score because it’s a lot easier to bet against the public than the pros. The public only bets on the races a couple of times a year, and this is one of them.

Because the public overbets the favorites and ignores live underdogs there are some wonderful prices to be had. And as much as I love a good longshot in the Derby I can’t ignore this year’s favorite, I Want Revenge. ‘Revenge’ reminds me of Bobby Frankel’s superhorse a few years ago, Empire Maker. They both won the Wood Memorial so easily you couldn’t imagine how they could ever lose again.

‘Revenge’ has tactical speed and proved he can spot the field seven lengths and still win for fun. In California, when he was just learning the game, he lost twice to Bob Baffert’s Pioneer of the Nile, while looking more impressive both times in defeat. But those races were on synthetic surfaces, not good old fashioned Kentucky dirt. Baffert is scared to death to find out how PON will run on dirt, which is why he kept him on the fake stuff for his final prep.

The great Bill Mott had PON last year and raced him on grass twice and synthetic twice. If Mott thought he would do well on dirt he could have run him on it at Saratoga, but chose the grass instead. So, to me, Pioneer of the Nile is the phony of this crowd. He’ll be second or third choice in the 20 horse field, and you can throw him out of making the exacta.

Mott, though, has a horse in Hold Me Back, who could be the longshot we’re all looking for. Mott has never won the Derby and has only started one other horse in it. It’s a clear signal he thinks this one has a big shot. HMB had one uneventful try on dirt, running out of the money after being four-wide the entire trip. He took time off and Mott brought him back to win the Lanes End in spectacular fashion and then took second in the Blue Grass. He’ll be at least 15-1.

Two others who will be flying at the end will be Chocolate Candy and General Quarters. Chocolate Candy was very impressive closing for second in the Santa Anita derby after having a wide trip while fighting a slow early pace. He’s coming to form perfectly. GQ has been sharp, showing two wins and two seconds in his last five races—all stakes. They’ll both be double digits and both are working well this week. Use them in your boxes.

Godolphin is back with two good horses they bought here last summer and trained all winter in Dubai. They are Regal Ransom, sure to be near the lead, and Desert Party. For a change they look like a contenders and the sheik has won just about every other major race in the world, so why not this one?

To me the big mystery horses are Dunkirk and Friesan Fire. Dunkirk has only had three starts and that’s not a suggested way to beat 19 others at 10 furlongs the first Saturday of May. He’s trained by Todd Pletcher, a great trainer, who’s never won this race. Pletcher is starting a couple others with no chance and it feels like he’s rushing Dunkirk into this spot. Maybe he’s just throwing stuff against the wall, hoping something will stick.

Friesan Fire had either a great or terrible workout earlier in the week, going five furlongs in :57 4/5. Great because the time was so fast. Terrible because he was exhausted at the finish and had nothing left. But he is trained by Larry Jones, who had the second place Derby finishers the last two years, and that’s how he likes to train. FF has won three straight but has been off for seven weeks, which could explain why he was so tired after his work.

So here’s the bet: use I Want Revenge for first, with Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy and General Quarters for second and third, with Desert Party, Regal Ransom, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire and West Side Bernie for third only. For a $1 trifecta part-wheel it will cost $24.If you can afford it, play I Want Revenge in the second spot, with the three originally picked for second on top for another $24. If it hits dinner is on you.
 
I follow this guy Rich Podolsky for sports stuff. Here's his writeup for this weekend.




Your Derby Winner: I Want Revenge; One to Avoid: Pioneer of the Nile
Nobody loves a longshot in the Derby more than me. Derby Day is a day for handicappers to make their score because it’s a lot easier to bet against the public than the pros. The public only bets on the races a couple of times a year, and this is one of them.

Because the public overbets the favorites and ignores live underdogs there are some wonderful prices to be had. And as much as I love a good longshot in the Derby I can’t ignore this year’s favorite, I Want Revenge. ‘Revenge’ reminds me of Bobby Frankel’s superhorse a few years ago, Empire Maker. They both won the Wood Memorial so easily you couldn’t imagine how they could ever lose again.

‘Revenge’ has tactical speed and proved he can spot the field seven lengths and still win for fun. In California, when he was just learning the game, he lost twice to Bob Baffert’s Pioneer of the Nile, while looking more impressive both times in defeat. But those races were on synthetic surfaces, not good old fashioned Kentucky dirt. Baffert is scared to death to find out how PON will run on dirt, which is why he kept him on the fake stuff for his final prep.

The great Bill Mott had PON last year and raced him on grass twice and synthetic twice. If Mott thought he would do well on dirt he could have run him on it at Saratoga, but chose the grass instead. So, to me, Pioneer of the Nile is the phony of this crowd. He’ll be second or third choice in the 20 horse field, and you can throw him out of making the exacta.

Mott, though, has a horse in Hold Me Back, who could be the longshot we’re all looking for. Mott has never won the Derby and has only started one other horse in it. It’s a clear signal he thinks this one has a big shot. HMB had one uneventful try on dirt, running out of the money after being four-wide the entire trip. He took time off and Mott brought him back to win the Lanes End in spectacular fashion and then took second in the Blue Grass. He’ll be at least 15-1.

Two others who will be flying at the end will be Chocolate Candy and General Quarters. Chocolate Candy was very impressive closing for second in the Santa Anita derby after having a wide trip while fighting a slow early pace. He’s coming to form perfectly. GQ has been sharp, showing two wins and two seconds in his last five races—all stakes. They’ll both be double digits and both are working well this week. Use them in your boxes.

Godolphin is back with two good horses they bought here last summer and trained all winter in Dubai. They are Regal Ransom, sure to be near the lead, and Desert Party. For a change they look like a contenders and the sheik has won just about every other major race in the world, so why not this one?

To me the big mystery horses are Dunkirk and Friesan Fire. Dunkirk has only had three starts and that’s not a suggested way to beat 19 others at 10 furlongs the first Saturday of May. He’s trained by Todd Pletcher, a great trainer, who’s never won this race. Pletcher is starting a couple others with no chance and it feels like he’s rushing Dunkirk into this spot. Maybe he’s just throwing stuff against the wall, hoping something will stick.

Friesan Fire had either a great or terrible workout earlier in the week, going five furlongs in :57 4/5. Great because the time was so fast. Terrible because he was exhausted at the finish and had nothing left. But he is trained by Larry Jones, who had the second place Derby finishers the last two years, and that’s how he likes to train. FF has won three straight but has been off for seven weeks, which could explain why he was so tired after his work.

So here’s the bet: use I Want Revenge for first, with Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy and General Quarters for second and third, with Desert Party, Regal Ransom, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire and West Side Bernie for third only. For a $1 trifecta part-wheel it will cost $24.If you can afford it, play I Want Revenge in the second spot, with the three originally picked for second on top for another $24. If it hits dinner is on you.


how would that bet be typed out in numbers if i was gonna email my uncle to play it? how would i type the numbers so to make it easier for him
 
It's a little confusing the way he worded it but i think He is gonna key the
13 over the
5-11-12 over the
5-11-12-10-15-19-6-1
for a dollar trifecta. I'll check on the math. Second part is coming.
 
My calulator showed the bet to be $21 not $24.
Second bet
1$ Tri. Wheel
5-11-12 over
13 over
5-11-12-10-15-19-6-1
Cost of this bet $45.
 
thanks..yea thats what i was thinking but also was gettin 21 not 24 so thought i was doin it wrong.. might actuallyt play a bet like that
 
dunkirk reportedly not holding his weight good.. pioneer of the nile may like the slop so if it does rain i will look at him.. revenge absolutely loving the track... he gonna win i think.. bettin him hard
 
I'm going to tail...dont know much about horse betting, but do know one can make some serious change if it hits. Last year Triple Crown, I played the heavy underdogs with no idea and it came through.
 
I am going to the Derby tomorrow....It will be raining alot of the day....Looking for some mudders

I have some bets:

$1 Trifecta for a total of $42

15-Dunkirk
w/ 5-Hold me Back,6-Friesan Fire,7-Papa Clem,10-Regal Ransom,11-Chocolate Candy,13-I Want Revenge,19-Desert Party
w/5,6,7,10,11,13,19

So that is: 15 w/5,6,7,10,11,13,19 w/5,6,7,10,11,13,19

I just think that Dunkirk's last race against Quality Road was the best I had seen. He earned a ton of experience going up against such a good horse. People may knock his size and lack of experience, but I think he will be just fine sitting a couple lengths off the front. His wet track pedigree is also one of the tops in the field.

Playing $20 WPS on 19-Desert Party

This horse has looked very well according to the clockers at the track this week. He is bred to go a long way and is a brother to Kentucky Derby Winner Street Sense. The Odds will also be great on this one.

Just for fun I will be playing another trifecta on a horse that worked very well yesterday...

$1 trifecta for $42

7-Papa Clem
w/1-West Side Bernie,6-Friesan Fire,9-Join in the Dance,10-Regal Ransom,13-I Want Revenge,15-Dunkirk,19-Desert Party
w/1,6,9,10,13,15,19

So that is 7 w/1,6,9,10,13,15,19 w/1,6,9,10,13,15,19

BOL everyone!!

:cheers:
 
I like Regal Ransom to get it done.....+1850 at Greek.

Others:

Desert Party at 14-1
Friesan at 4-1
Nowhere to Hide at 8.5-1
 
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>5/2/2009 4:50 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Regal Ransom vs General Quarters</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55>129</TD><TD width=300>Regal Ransom </TD><TD width=65> +105 </TD><TD width=200> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55>130</TD><TD width=300>General Quarters </TD><TD width=65> -135 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Haven't finalized my plays yet other than my top horse.

I've settled on Dunkirk, I loved his move in the Florida Derby and I think he's set to improve here too. I'll be putting him on top of my exactas and tris, and underneath will likely be both Godolphin horses (I like RR better though), I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, Musketman, GQ, and West Side Bernie in some form or fashion.
 
Just placed a $1 Exacta with Friesan Fire to win (over the field) for $19 per ticket and a $1 Exacta with the field over FF to Place for $19 per ticket. I really think FF finishes in the top two.

My father in law is placing a superfecta bet boxing Friesan Fire and Dunkirk (to be in the top 4) along with the rest of the field. The ticket cost him quite a bit, I think.

I'm not a huge racing fan, but I really like what I have seen out of FF. He's a beast. Good luck tomorrow everybody.
 
My father in law is placing a superfecta bet boxing Friesan Fire and Dunkirk (to be in the top 4) along with the rest of the field. The ticket cost him quite a bit, I think.

$1 super, even with Big Brown winning last year as the fav paid $29k....

Could be even more this year, with that field... Will be a ton of large, live dogs up there near the money...
 
$1 super, even with Big Brown winning last year as the fav paid $29k....

Could be even more this year, with that field... Will be a ton of large, live dogs up there near the money...

That's what he was saying. I think a few years ago it paid like $850k when a big dog or two hit the board.

Who you got tomorrow Hoops? I see you in the PB on blankets occasionally playing the horses.
 
I'm stuck on POTN for some reason.. Slowly getting on the Freisan Fire band wagon... and Musket Man is starting to stare at me, with that big price tag...

I'm really thinking about making a large super ticket, praying, and slamming mint juelips all day long..

This field is just crazy... So many goodies for me.. I about shit my pants watching Dubai earlier in the year, and I can only imagine this will be better...
 
:shake:

Good luck with whatever you decide hoops. No clear cut favorite this year. Sounds like it may come down to track conditions and who runs best on the surface. POTN is a monster but no real experience on dirt scares me a bit. I think he could beat most, if not all, of the horses in this field at his home track. I'm actually more excited to watch the race this year because you just don't know who is going to come out on top. Should be a great race.
 
OK, with I Want Revenge scratched I finalized my Derby Picks.
I'm going to do a $1 Tri. Wheel.
Firesan Fire 6-P.O.T.N. 16 over
F.F 6-P.O.T.N. 16 Dunkirk15-Desert Party19-Choc Candy11-Papa Clem.7 over
F.F 6-P.O.T.N. 16 Dunkirk15-Desert Party19-Choc Candy11-Papa Clem.7
$40 investment
Also $20 WPS on Each
POTN 16-Firesan Fire 6-and Desert Party 19 $180
Total Derby Bets=$220. Good Betting to all.
:cheers:
 
Steve Byk's picks

6th: 75th Churchill Downs (Gr. II), 4+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #3 Kodiak Cowboy 8-5
Next Best: #9 Sok Sok 5-2
Best Value: #8 Silver Edition 12-1
Super Add: #6 Accredit 8-1


7th: 54th Eight Belles (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 7.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #1 Just Jenda 4-1
Best Value: #10 Auspicious 9-2
Next Best: #4 Four Gifts 3-1
Super Add: #7 Loveyou Everybody 15-1


8th: 24th Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #2 Visit 7-2
Best Value: #1 Lemon Chiffon 6-1
Next Best: #7 Ballymore Lady 9-2
Super Add: #3 Tizaqueena 8-1


9th: 23rd Humana Distaff (Gr. I), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #9 Game Face 2-1
Best Value: #7 Royale Michelle 10-1
Next Best: #3 Informed Decision 9-5
Super Add: #5 Secret Gypsy 7-2


10th: 23rd Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Gr. I), 3+, 9f-T ((P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #6 Einstein 2-1
Best Value: #9 Zambezi Sun 10-1
Next Best: #4 Court Vision 7-2
Super Add: #3 Proudinsky 6-1


11th: 135th Kentucky Derby (Gr. I), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Best Value: #11 Chocolate Candy 20-1: Candy Ride colt should relish trip, surface; sharp pre-race work..
Most Likely: #6 Friesan Fire 5-1: Grudgingly respect solid A.P. Indy that may own big tactical edge..
Exotics Use: #5 Hold Me Back 15-1; #10 Regal Ransom 30-1
Super Add: #1 West Side Bernie 30-1; #3 Mr. Hot Stuff 30-1


<$100 P4 Play:

8: 1-2
9: 3-7-9
10: 3-4-6-9
11: 3-5-6-10-11-13-15

2x3x4x7 = 168 x .50 = $84


<$300 P6 Play:

6: 3-6-8-9
7: 1
8: 1-2
9: 3-7-9
10: 6
11: 3-5-6-10-11-15

4x1x2x3x1x6 = 144 x $2 = $288
 
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