Kansas @ Tx A&M

[M.R. Goode]

I have already notice almost everyone liking Kansas here and fundamentally the reasoning appears sound. Kansas has a very good rush D and we all know A&M can't pass. With that being said this is a bad spot for Kansas and here is why:

• How good is Kansas? This is about the same Kansas team as last year. Let's look at the games that have mattered: KSU & Colorado. Last year Kansas won over these two 20-15 and 39-20 at home. This year 19-14 and 30-24 on the road. That is 12 pts at home and 5.5 on the road, margin of victory. That is about the same.
• The Kansas rush defense is not as good as it appears due to the weakness of their schedule. They have not faced a power rush team since last years A & M game. Here are the stats from that game. FD's A&M 20-10, yards 386-288, A&M rushed 4.7 per carry and won TOP battle. The Aggies simply wore them down in the 4 Q. Final result 21-18 in Kansas as a 1 point favorite.
• As we all know the Aggies are a hell of a lot better at Kyle Field than on the road. In fact, A & M has won 7 straight against Kansas and Kansas has never won at Kyle. That is psychological advantage!
• Speaking of psyche advantage, Kansas is going to have tons of pressure in this game. They are top 10 (BCS) for the first time, national TV on the road in a crazy enviroment that they have never expierenced. Better teams than Kansas e.g. Rutgers last year, USF and Cincy this year have failed in this spot.
• I wrote an article about this trend a couple of weeks ago and last week it had two more easy winners (Rutgers & Temple) running the record to 75-41 since 2003. Bet on any conference HD who last week won and covered on the road. I have several angles like this that point for A & M or against Kansas. These are the best situations when you have for one and against the other.
• A & M is 9-2-2 as a home dog since 1998 that includes a 3-0-1 mark against the Big 12 North.

I'm not trying to make a case for TAMU here, I'm just trying to point out it may not be a slam dunk! Use this info as you wish.

 

[Fondybadger]

Some great counter analysis on the game. I'm a bit sketchy on Kansas, but people are talking me into it.

 

[STEED]

Kansas is so beat....so overrated. Look who they've beat. I'm just waiting and wishing on the right opportunity to bet against these losers...

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR bgColor=#233288><TD align=middle width="100%">2007 SCHEDULE
( Click on an event for complete event information )
</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#000000>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=schedtable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=event-table-headings bgColor=#af0a2e><TD class=head-text>Date</TD><TD class=head-text>Opponent / Event</TD><TD class=head-text>Location</TD><TD class=head-text>Time / Result</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000000><TD colSpan=4>

</TD></TR><TR class=tr-hilite id=832025 title=2007,8,01,19,00,00 vAlign=top bgColor=#f1f1f1 origClass="event-listing"><TD class=row-text>09/01/07</TD><TD class=row-text>vs. Central Michigan</TD><TD class=row-text>Lawrence, Kan.</TD><TD class=row-text>W, 52-7</TD></TR><TR class="" id=726104 title=2007,8,08,19,00,00 vAlign=top bgColor=#d1d1d1 origClass="event-listing"><TD class=row-text>09/08/07</TD><TD class=row-text>vs. SE Louisiana
Band Day</TD><TD class=row-text>Lawrence, Kan.</TD><TD class=row-text>W, 62-0</TD></TR><TR class="" id=726106 title=2007,8,15,19,00,00 vAlign=top bgColor=#f1f1f1 origClass="event-listing"><TD class=row-text>09/15/07</TD><TD class=row-text>vs. Toledo
Family Weekend</TD><TD class=row-text>Lawrence, Kan.</TD><TD class=row-text>W, 45-13</TD></TR><TR class="" id=726107 title=2007,8,22,19,00,00 vAlign=top bgColor=#d1d1d1 origClass="event-listing"><TD class=row-text>09/22/07</TD><TD class=row-text>vs. Florida International</TD><TD class=row-text>Lawrence, Kan.</TD><TD class=row-text>W, 55-3</TD></TR><TR class="" id=726109 title=2007,9,06,12,00,00 vAlign=top bgColor=#f1f1f1 origClass="event-listing"><TD class=row-text>10/06/07</TD><TD class=row-text>at Kansas State

</TD><TD class=row-text>Manhattan, Kan.</TD><TD class=row-text>W, 30-24</TD></TR><TR class="" id=726111 title=2007,9,13,12,30,00 vAlign=top bgColor=#d1d1d1 origClass="event-listing"><TD class=row-text>10/13/07</TD><TD class=row-text>vs. Baylor
K-Day Reunion

</TD><TD class=row-text>Lawrence, Kan.</TD><TD class=row-text>W, 58-10</TD></TR><TR class="" id=726122 title=2007,9,20,17,30,00 vAlign=top bgColor=#f1f1f1 origClass="event-listing" atvs="at" timestamp="2007,9,20,17,30,00" schoolcode="kan" recap="recap" timer="26480249"><TD class=row-text>10/20/07</TD><TD class=row-text>at Colorado

</TD><TD class=row-text>Boulder, Colo.</TD><TD class=row-text>W, 19-14</TD></TR><TR class="" id=726124 title=2007,9,27,19,00,00 vAlign=top bgColor=#d1d1d1 origClass="event-listing" atvs="at" timestamp="2007,9,27,19,00,00" schoolcode="kan" recap="null" timer="26480248"><TD class=row-text>10/27/07</TD><TD class=row-text>at Texas A&M

</TD><TD class=row-text>College Station, Texas</TD><TD class=row-text>6:00 p.m. CT</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[TroyStacks]

this is ur typical bcs spoiler team IMO and kansas will be this years boise perhaps.i'm not getting too high on them or drinking the kool aid so to speak but the season is half over and i likewhat i see despite a semi easy schedule. good health bro

 

[ynnhoj316]

M.R. Goode -

very impressive post.

 

[1kstate]

I cannot WAIT until the KU/Mizzou game

 

[M.R. Goode]

I agree Kstate if they don't get exposed before then!!!

 

[1kstate]

I hope your Aggies run it down their throats this week. I'm sick and tired about hearing that KU is for real.

 

[RJ Esq]

I definitely lean Aggy at 3 or more.

Kansas hasn't experienced such a crazy environment with 80k sheephumpers, nutsqueezers, and pretend soldiers.

Aggy +3 (for real).

 

[E.T.G.]

Kansas hasn't experienced such a crazy environment with 80k sheephumpers, nutsqueezers, and pretend soldiers.

.

:36_11_6:

 

[ynnhoj316]

can aggy score with KU? aggy defense is atrocious.

 

[metsrp86]

I love how this line is this short. Everyone speaks about how Kansas has beaten no one this year.

They thoroughly outplayed KSU. The final score is VERY misleading. Kansas stopped KSU 2 times on third and very long down, but committed a personal foul face mask, rough the kicker to keep one of their touchdown drives alive. They completely shut down KSU in the second half. They couldve had another TD but settled for a field inside the KSU 5 yard near the end of the game.

Speaking of teams that have not beaten anyone this year, how about Aggy? Their only good win of the year was against Ok State at home, and they were statistically outplayed in every category.

The difference in this game is that KU has a solid D and Texas A&M will struggle to stop the KU attack. The only team thats slowed down KU was Colorado at home, and they have slowed everyone at home. KU completely shut down Hugh Charles, who is a decent RB last week. Aggy will be in for a rude awaking this weekend...Go JayHawks!!

 

[carolinablue]

Some thoughts on KU vs A&M...

When one actually takes the time to look at who each team has beaten, there isn't a large discrepancy in the quality of victories if you are really objective about it. I mean A&M's best win was at home vs a decent Okie State team, while Kansas' best win was on the road vs a decent KSU team. A&M's other home wins were Fresno, Monroe, Baylor and Montana State. Not exactly top level competition as they were at least 17 point or more favs in every single one of those games.

We all know that KU hasn't beaten anyone of note at home, but I have no problem giving them credit for beating both Colorado and KSU on the road, because those were tough games against tough teams. I consider those wins much more impressive than A&M's road win against Nebraska and their home win vs Okie State.

Just want to put the whole schedule thing in perspective because I hear people talk about it a lot but they aren't taking A&M's schedule into account at the same time.

Not saying this will be a slam dunk by any means (what game is?) but I used a ton of stats, trends, and psychological stuff when I played KSU at home vs KU and we all know how that worked out for me (and tons of others). Should be a fun one to watch, but just wanted to point out that KU may or may not be a fraud, but until someone proves differently, I am done trying to predict when they will be exposed.

 

[M.R. Goode]

You are correct that both of these teams are somewhat unknown but my point was they are about the same teams as last year, same kids, etc. There has been nothing done this year to change that perception, yet.

Also, the pressure they are going to be under due to ranking can't be underestimated. Teams that are not familiar with it usually fold.

I don't want to get in a pissing match here, but Kyle Field is the toughest enviroment to play in the Big 12, statistically speaking. As far back as my stats go they have the 2'nd best win % and 3'rd best H/A % differential in the Big 12. This accounts for everybody's perception that they suck on the road.

 

[Aztec4Life]

I definitely lean Aggy at 3 or more.

Kansas hasn't experienced such a crazy environment with 80k sheephumpers, nutsqueezers, and pretend soldiers.

Aggy +3 (for real).

Classic!

Having said that, I'm on Kansas this week, so...GO Jayhawks!

 

[12 Pounder]

Line Down to -2 at bookmaker

 

[Go play Intramurals]

The Aggies are f*cking awful - KU all the way

 

[carolinablue]

You are correct that both of these teams are somewhat unknown but my point was they are about the same teams as last year, same kids, etc. There has been nothing done this year to change that perception, yet.

Also, the pressure they are going to be under due to ranking can't be underestimated. Teams that are not familiar with it usually fold.

I don't want to get in a pissing match here, but Kyle Field is the toughest enviroment to play in the Big 12, statistically speaking. As far back as my stats go they have the 2'nd best win % and 3'rd best H/A % differential in the Big 12. This accounts for everybody's perception that they suck on the road.

You bring up a ton of good points, so don't want you to mistake my discussion for a pissing match because that is definitely not my style by any means. What makes this forum so great is that guys can have intelligent debate back and forth without it turning into a pissing match, so definitely meant no offense by my post. This is my first time reading your stuff and you definitely bring a lot of great insight to the forum, so glad to have you here contributing. Best of luck this weekend!

 

[Joe Public]

So what you're basically saying, Carolina is:

Shut up, Steed.

A point well made, sir, well made indeed.

 

[M.R. Goode]

I did not think you we're wanting a pissing match Carolina!!! That was intended for some Big 12 compadres who might have taken exception to my blasphemy. Nothing but respect for your opinion and many others at this site, that is why I am here.

 

[Joe Public]

Hey, Mr. G., how's your system coming along?

 

[M.R. Goode]

If you are refering to formula plays, terrible week last week but I did use them for the basis of my 9-1 ATS weekend but I threw out almost all of the losers couldn't bet I could do that again. They are so up and down even the pros are below 50%. Very dissapointing! Almost ready to throw in towel on them!

 

[Joe Public]

Very dissapointing! Almost ready to throw in towel on them!

Ack, that's not good to hear, maybe we can help?

 

[ynnhoj316]

m.r. goode - what are you thoughts on that kid who just decommitted from a&m because of fran's newsletters

 

[royalewithcheese]

KU wins this game by 2-3 TD's.

"The Kansas rush defense is not as good as it appears due to the weakness of their schedule."

TT. The Red Raider very average run defense held the atm rush offense in check enough for them to only eek out 7 points in the whole game.

"As we all know the Aggies are a hell of a lot better at Kyle Field than on the road."

Three BIG 12 Losses just last year alone. Deaddogfield ain't near as intimidating under Francakes. Yea it's loud and stuff, but they haven't sold out a game in a few seasons. (unless TEXAS is in town)

Stephen McGee is still banged up after carrying the ball a rediculous 35 times at NU last week. Star TE Martellyouaboutme Bennett didnt play last week at NU, supposed to play this week.

During that NU game, atm lost their best cover guy to an ACL injury for the year, crippling an already horrific pass defense. KU runs the spread, anyone see the atm/TT game?

I look for Mangino to put 8 or 9 in the box to stop atm's run game ala TT and Miami.

On offense, say jailbreak screen and easy slants all day across the middle on atm's "HS like defense" (Fowler actually said this during the thursday night ESPN Miami game) 4-2-5 will be ripped to shreds.

If atm gets behind and have to rely on Stephen McGee's "passing game" it gets real fugly for aggsy.

Total Offense:

KU is #10
A&M is #41

Total Defense:

KU is #5 (#7 in rushing at 78 yards per game)
A&M is #73

Against the three best rushing defenses aggsy has faced this year, they averaged less than 3.7 ypc and lost two of those games.

Aggsy, led by ()arnell, has no clue how to defend the spread.

One aggsy qoute about summed it up for me also:

Bottom line...

A&M sucks against the pass. Spread offenses (remember Tech?) can throw all over us.

My theory is, "If I have to watch us get thrown all over by the likes of these teams, someone is going to pay me to do it." Take KU heavily.

Finally, Mangina > Francakes!

 

[M.R. Goode]

If he just de-committed to TAMU he just wanted to, had nothing with newsletters. As we all should know Fran is gone, regardless of any outcome!!

 

[Pluto Brown]

I know aTm really well and KU somewhat. I think KU's defense is athletic and fast enough to hold about 90% of all offenses pretty well under their averages. aTm's WRs are below average enough and KUs DBs are good enough to let KU keep their DBs out on islands all day with the aggie WRs while they stuff 8-9 guys in the box to stop the aTm run offense. aTm is very one-dimensional, no surprises, and that gets more and more obvious every week of the season... Plus KU has an exciting spread offense, and aTm just lost their best cover guy and they never fare well against the spread... I think KU is really going to think of this as a little more of a coming party for them. I know aTm isnt ranked, but KU really wants to come down to the state of Texas and beat aTm at Kyle Field. They know Kyle Field is known for being hard to win at and they know how much more tradition and history aTm has than them and KU would really like to walk into Kyle Field and try and shut that crowd up... KU is on a roll and doing things their program has never seen, while aTm's got problems at the top and is having an up and down season. Im thinkin something like 31-21 Kansas wins.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great thread...

have an excellent point-counterpoint with 'ahitspat'

 

[HUNT]

yep..great discussion fellas.

 

[RetroVK]

In defense of the aggies. .... any team that names their stadium after me cannot be all bad.

I am tired of fading these inflated kansas lines ... they are driving me to the poor house. I will sit on the sidelines and watch this one.

One thing that i will say is that the colorado run attack and the aggy run attack are very disimilar. Kansas may very well be good... they are certainly good at covering the spread each week. i am not fading them in this spot and i am not playing them as a road favorite against a team i had rated much higher than in the preseason. that is to say ..... if kansas was playing this way vs competition then i could more easily adjust my rating of them ... but i just dont have a friggin clue.

 

[M.R. Goode]

People always say Aggies don't do well against spread but the Aggies don't do well against Texas Tech. They have done okay against Baylor, Missouri and Kansas's spread offense. Tech just has a bad mojo on us.

 

[royalewithcheese]

Mr. Goode, in all fairness, this is only BU's second year to run the spread. And, it's friggin BU - the BIG 12 cupcake.

Mizzou is a 14 point favorite over atm last I checked.

KU wins by 2 TD's....at least.

 

[Dogdoc]

M.R.
It's obvious that even though you stated you didn't want to get into a pissing contest, some will try to goad you into one. You provided good, objective analysis. I think it will be a close game, with A&M trying somewhat successfully to shorten the game & limit KU's opportunities. That said, I have little confidence in Fran's ability to not screw up what I see as an opportunity for a minor upset. GL to all.