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signalcaller
Guest
Im hoping Kentucky gets back to 6 before I go to work
Just for ETG..Early Dr. Bob Discussion and INGAME
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
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signalcaller
Guest
Well he emails his picks then his clients just hit the shit out of these lines
I played UK ML days ago and will play some on the side now too
SteveMoneydog
Pretty much a regular
Strong Opinion - Rotation #385 Ohio St (-7) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #351 Virginia Tech (+5 1/2) Strong Opinion at +5 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #349 Colorado (-8 1/2) Strong Opinion at -10 or less. 2-Stars at -7 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #406 Middle Tennessee St (+10 1/2) Strong Opinion at +10 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +11 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #307 Utah (+14 1/2) Strong Opinion at +14 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #328 Auburn (-7 1/2) Strong Opinion at -9 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -7 or less (-115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion - Rotation #393 Arizona St (-8) Strong Opinion at -9 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #314 Rutgers (-3 1/2) Strong Opinion at -5 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less (-115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion - Rotation #363 Fresno State (+3 1/2) Strong Opinion at +3 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #351 Virginia Tech (+5 1/2) Strong Opinion at +5 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #349 Colorado (-8 1/2) Strong Opinion at -10 or less. 2-Stars at -7 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #406 Middle Tennessee St (+10 1/2) Strong Opinion at +10 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +11 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #307 Utah (+14 1/2) Strong Opinion at +14 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #328 Auburn (-7 1/2) Strong Opinion at -9 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -7 or less (-115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion - Rotation #393 Arizona St (-8) Strong Opinion at -9 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #314 Rutgers (-3 1/2) Strong Opinion at -5 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less (-115 odds or better).
Strong Opinion - Rotation #363 Fresno State (+3 1/2) Strong Opinion at +3 or more.
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signalcaller
Guest
Rutgers up to 4
3wiggler
Pretty much a regular
MTSU....WOW? Didn't the QB get hurt last week?
Just locked in -8 -110
thegambler
Member
damn im jumping all over nevada at home
they are just a covering machine at home, doesnt matter if its football or basketball
they are just a covering machine at home, doesnt matter if its football or basketball
Saw an 8 and pounced on it..hehe...
Like Fonds said...Illy is like UNLV but better and Wisky struggled. Line moved 4 points real quick from +1 to -3. I am torn on this game and will just chill on it. Wisky defense is weak though.
pretty sure he'll put them up as he gets them
richardtonsj
Pretty much a regular
same here...really like to read his write ups. It does contain some interesting stats which I like to use when capping.
Thanks in advance!!!
:cheers:
smo1a
Pretty much a regular
ahhhh. didn't know wisky opened as fav. looking at sportsbook.com, they opened Illinois -2.5 and show 86% on wisky. something seems off there.
PURPLE & GOLD
Sporting my Footie Pajamas
Doucet IS out for those wondering.
Unless of course its more Miles mind tricks.
He thinks he has Jedi powers now and each week is more impressed with his ability to keep you guessing which of Early's nuts is swollen.
BOB may be hitting at a poor rate but he's dead on with Florida +7ish
Unless of course its more Miles mind tricks.
He thinks he has Jedi powers now and each week is more impressed with his ability to keep you guessing which of Early's nuts is swollen.
BOB may be hitting at a poor rate but he's dead on with Florida +7ish
GridironGems
The Mel Kiper of CTG
Good cause I got Florida +10
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signalcaller
Guest
Purple, Your actually liking the Gators +7?
Mark's Madness
Member
ForzaAzzurri
Pretty much a regular
Anyone know the weather situation in Columbia, SC?? It says rain 60% chance all night long... some mixed T storms, anyone else playing the Under with me?
SteveMoneydog
Pretty much a regular
7 Best Bets and 9 Strong Opinions.
Rotation #388 UCLA (-20 1/2) 4-Stars at -21 or less, 3-Stars from -21 1/2 to -24, 2- Stars from -24 1/2 to -26.
Rotation #355 Nebraska (+7) 3-Stars at +7 or more, 2-Stars from +6 1/2 to +6.
Rotation # 361 Georgia (+1) 3-Stars at pick or dog, 2-Stars from -1 to -2.
Rotation #377 Georgia Tech (-2 1/2) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars at -3 1/2 or -4.
Rotation #383 Florida (+7 1/2) 3-Stars at +7 1/2 or more, 2-Stars from +7 to +6.
Rotation #320 Michigan State (-14 1/2) 2-Stars at -16 or less, 3-Stars at -14 or less.
Rotation #371 Arizona (+4) 2-Stars at +3 or more.
4 Star Selection
****UCLA (-20.5) 39 Notre Dame 6
05:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
UCLA should have won last year’s game against the Irish in South Bend and I doubt that the Bruins will feel sorry for Notre Dame today in a complete mismatch. The Irish finally mustered some offense last week against a sub-par Purdue defense but Notre Dame’s offense has been buried by teams that can put pressure on the quarterback and UCLA can certainly do that. For the season the Irish attack (if you can call it that) has averaged a pathetic 3.3 yards per play and UCLA’s solid defensive unit (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) will bring the heat with sack specialist Bruce Davis (16 sacks since last season) and a slew of other blitzing defenders. My math model projects just 3.5 yppl for Notre Dame in this game and that’s with the more effective Evan Sharpley at quarterback for injured freshman Jimmy Clausen (who may actually play, making it even worse for the Irish attack). Notre Dame does have a solid defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl) but UCLA is even better offensively, averaging 5.7 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.1 yppl to an average attack. That unit will be blessed with good field position given to them by their defense and superior special teams and my math model favors the Bruins by 28 points in this game. In addition to the line value UCLA applies to a very strong 93-29-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator and the Bruins play their best football at home, where they are 18-7-2 ATS under coach Dorrell (2-0 ATS this year). I’ll take UCLA in a 4-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less, for 3-Stars from -21 ½ to -24 points and for 2-Stars from -24 ½ to -26 points.
3 Star Selection
***Georgia Tech (-2.5) 27 MARYLAND 16
09:00 AM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Both of these teams are coming off upset wins but it’s Maryland that applies to a negative 13-40 ATS letdown situation while Georgia Tech applies to a very strong 73-25 ATS statistical match-up indicator. The match-up certainly does favor the Yellow Jackets, as their duo of star running backs Tashard Choice and Jonathan Dwyer (combined to run for 762 yards at 5.8 ypr and 11 touchdowns) will move the chains all day long against a Maryland defense that gas allowed 5.2 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average defense). The Terrapins do defend the pass well but Georgia Tech won’t have to throw too often in this one and Maryland isn’t likely to move the ball by land or by air against a good Yellow Jackets defense that rates at 0.8 yards per play better than average. Georgia Tech is particularly good defending the run (3.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp), so I don’t expect Maryland’s run heavy attack (60% running plays but just average running the ball) to perform very well in this game. Maryland’s backup quarterback Chris Turner came off the bench last week for an injured Jordan Steffy and played well against Rutgers but I doubt that Turner is much better (if at all better) than Steffy and Maryland’s pass attack is normally very poor. Georgia Tech should also win the battle of field position in this game, as their special teams rate as one of the best in the nation. Overall, my math model favors the Yellow Jackets by 9 points in this game and the technical analysis favors them as well. I’ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and I’ll make them a 2-Star at -3 ½ or -4 points.
3 Star Selection
***Georgia 34 TENNESSEE (-1.0) 24
12:30 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Tennessee has no right being favored in this game. The Volunteers have been beaten soundly by the only two good teams that they’ve faced, losing by 14 points at Cal and by 39 points at Florida and playing this game at home is not going to help. Tennessee has a history of playing poorly against good conference foes in Knoxville under coach Fulmer, as the Vols are only 8-23-1 ATS in his tenure when hosting a conference foe with a win percentage of .666 or higher, including 5-21 ATS when not getting at least 3 points (0- 13 ATS since 2001). Even having last week off isn’t going to help Fulmer, as he’s 0-9 ATS in that role after a bye week. Georgia coach Mark Richt, meanwhile, has a habit of beating good teams on the road and his Bulldogs are now 16-5 ATS on the road when not laying 10 points or more, including a straight up win at Alabama a few weeks ago. Georgia is also a much better team than Tennessee. The Bulldogs haven’t been great offensively this season (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) but Tennessee has been a disaster on defense (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense) and they’ve been 0.5 yppl worse than average or worse defensively in all 4 of their games this season (compensating for strength of opposing offenses, of course). Aside from Cal and Florida averaging a combined 8.0 yppl the Vols also gave up 5.4 yppl at home to Southern Miss and Arkansas State, who would combine to average only 4.8 yppl on the road against an average defensive team. Tennessee does have a better than average offensive unit (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) and they are a bit better than that now that Eric Ainge has a healthy throwing hand (his broken pinky finger made it tough for him to throw down the field in the first couple of games), but Georgia’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average and has the advantage in that match-up. My math model favors Georgia by 8 ½ points even after adjusting Ainge’s passing numbers to last year’s level and I’ll take Georgia in a 3-Star Best Bet as an underdog or pick and for 2-Stars from -1 to -2 points.
3 Star Selection
***Florida 25 LSU (-7.5) 24
05:25 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Florida was caught looking ahead to this game and the Gators paid for that by losing to Auburn. However, that upset loss sets the Gators up in a very strong 61-10 ATS situation that has been very good to me over the years. LSU, meanwhile, applies to a negative 29- 67-1 ATS situation and I certainly don’t mind taking the extra points that is the result of last week’s result. Florida certainly didn’t play that poorly last week, as they out- gained Auburn 5.7 yards per play to 4.7 yppl, which is actually 1.6 yppl better than average after compensating for level of opponent and site. LSU, meanwhile, only out- gained Tulane 5.6 yppl to 3.5 yppl, which is only 0.6 yppl better than average when factoring in that Tulane would be out-gained by 1.5 yppl at home against an average team. So LSU actually played worse last week than Florida, so the extra point we’re getting this week is a bit of a gift. LSU has been struggling offensively with Matt Flynn at quarterback, as the Tigers have been only 0.5 yppl better than average with Flynn under center (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average offense). Florida’s defense has only been 0.4 yppl better than average (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense), so LSU’s attack with Flynn at quarterback has only a 0.1 yppl edge over Florida’s defense. LSU’s defense has been incredible in allowing just 2.9 yppl in 5 games (to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average stop unit), but Florida has been 2.0 yppl better than average offensively this season (7.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), so the Tigers also have just a 0.1 yppl advantage over the Gators’ offense. These teams are very close from a yards per play perspective and my math model only favors LSU by 5 ½ points here in Baton Rouge. With a strong situation and line value on our side I’ll take Florida in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ points or more and for 2-Stars from +7 to +6 points.
3 Star Selection
***Nebraska 38 MISSOURI (-7.0) 37
06:15 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
I was surprised that Missouri was favored by so much over a good Nebraska team. I realize that Nebraska’s defense has come into question in recent weeks after getting run over by USC and then allowing Ball State to rack up 610 yards at 40 points the next week, but Nebraska’s defense is actually better than Missouri’s defense and both teams are pretty close offensively. Nebraska has allowed 5.4 yards per play for the season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, so their defense really isn’t as bad as it looked in those two games. Missouri’s defense, however, has played worse than average in all 4 of their games this season (relative to who and where they were playing) and the Tigers have allowed 5.6 yppl to teams that would average only 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. Missouri is slightly better offensively (1.0 yppl better than average compared to Nebraska’s +0.8 yppl offensive rating) but these two teams are about the same from a compensated yards per play basis and Nebraska has the edge in special teams while Missouri has a 1.7 points edge in projected turnovers. Overall, my math model favors Nebraska by 1 ½ points and the Cornhuskers apply to a decent 61-29-1 ATS situation that is based on their recent pointspread failures. I’ll take Nebraska in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +6 ½ or +6 points (strong opinion at +5 ½ or +5 points.
2 Star Selection
**MICHIGAN ST. (-14.5) 40 Northwestern 17
09:00 AM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Northwestern was in a good situation last week against an overrated Michigan team and the Wildcats covered the spread in a 16-28 home loss. Competing on the road against a good Michigan State team is another story and Northwestern looks overmatched in this game. The Wildcats have averaged just 5.0 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and that unit will struggle against a solid Spartans’ defense that has been 0.4 yppl better than average this season (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team). There is an equally decisive mismatch on the other side of the ball, as Michigan State’s balanced attack has been 0.5 yppl better than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) is likely to move the ball consistently against a Wildcats’ defense that is 0.6 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team). Northwestern is particularly bad defending the pass (7.6 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppp), so Spartans’ quarterback Brian Hoyer should have no trouble moving the chains on 3rd down if his good running backs Ringer (544 yards at 6.0 ypr) and Caulcrick (373 yards at 4.5 ypr) don’t take care of business on 1st and 2nd down. My math model projects a 500 yards to 298 yards advantage for Michigan State and that should result in a win of 20 points or more. I’ll take Michigan State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -16 points or less and for 3-Stars at -14 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**Arizona 31 OREGON ST. (-4.0) 26
01:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Arizona’s new pass-heavy Texas Tech style offense has struggled a bit against teams with good pass defenses (BYU and Cal), but quarterback Willie Tuitama torched a mediocre New Mexico pass defense 3 weeks ago (8.2 yards per pass play) and averaged 11.2 yppp in last week’s win over Washington State. Arizona matches up very well with an Oregon State defense that is one of the best in the nation at defending the run (3.0 yards per rushing play allowed) while rating at 0.5 yppp worse than average against the pass. The Beavers’ excellent run defense is really going to do them no good against a team that doesn’t care about the running the ball and I expect the Wildcats to move the ball well in this game. Oregon State’s offense will have a tough time keeping up with star WR Sammie Straughter now sidelined indefinitely with a kidney injury after carrying the offense for two weeks. Straughter was one of the best receivers in the nation last season (1293 yards at 17.5 ypc) and Oregon State’s inexperienced quarterbacks struggled the first two games with Straughter sitting out for personal reasons. Straughter returned to the starting lineup for weeks 3 and 4 and Oregon State’s offense totaled 1121 yards and 93 points in those two games, including racking up 514 yards at 6.4 yards per play against a very good Arizona State defense. Straughter caught 15 passes for 262 yards (17.5 ypc) in those two games but he sat out last week and the Beavers’ pass attack went with him (just 3.1 yppp against UCLA). Oregon State is about average in pass offense for the season, but the Beavers are 1.3 yppp worse than average in 3 games without Straughter (4.1 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average team). I actually rate OSU quarterback Sean Canfield at 0.5 yppp worse than average without Straughter and Canfield continues to throw interceptions at a high rate (11 on 163 passes while backup Moevao has thrown 4 picks). Oregon State’s rushing attack is just barely better than average (5.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) and the Beavers are a below average offensive team overall. Oregon State’s only offensive weapon is running back Yvenson Bernard, but Bernard has averaged a sub-par 4.5 ypr in his career (4.6 ypr this season) and Arizona is a good defending the run (3.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team). Overall Arizona rates at 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, so they have an advantage over the OSU attack. Arizona is the better team and I’ll take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (strong opinion from +1 to 2 ½).
Strong Opinion
Utah 26 LOUISVILLE (-14.5) 35
05:00 PM Pacific, 05-Oct-07
Louisville is a tough team to figure, as their defense can’t possibly be as bad as it was against Middle Tennessee State and Syracuse, who are two bad offensive teams that combined to average 40 points and 9.2 yards per play. Louisville has actually played better defensively when focused by the threat of a decent opponent, as they limited Kentucky to 5.8 yppl and held NC State to 5.3 yppl last week. Utah is certainly a team that Louisville has to take seriously even though the Utes have struggled offensively this season so far (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). The return of starting quarterback Brian Johnson to the starting lineup last week didn’t help, as the Utes managed just 5.2 yppl against a Utah State defense that would allow 6.6 yppl on the road to an average team. Utah certainly is capable of a good offensive game given their 5.5 yppl and 44 points they racked up on a good UCLA defense a few weeks ago. Utah does have a solid defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team), so they should slow down the potent Louisville attack (7.4 yppl) a bit. This game really depends on which Louisville defense shows up – the horrible unit that couldn’t stop Middle Tennessee or Syracuse or the unit that played at a decent level against Kentucky and NC State. If Louisville plays defensively at the level they played against the two teams that had to take seriously then my math model would favor the Cardinals by 14 ½ points, but the predicted margin would be considerably less if I use all 5 of Louisville’s games to get their defensive rating. At Louisville’s defensive best the Cardinals still don’t appear to have more than a 50% chance of covering and I’ll favor Utah plus the points.
Strong Opinion
AUBURN (-7.5) 28 Vanderbilt 14
09:30 AM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Auburn is coming off a huge upset win over Florida and you might think that the Tigers would be due for a letdown. That’s what I thought might be the case too until I looked up how home favorites perform after winning straight up as a double-
road underdog. As it turns out teams in that situation are good bets and Auburn applies to a 36-6 ATS subset of a situation based on the premise. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is playing their first road game after 4 home games and the Commodores apply to a negative 23-57-3 ATS situation that plays against road teams after playing 4 or more consecutive home games. Auburn has struggled offensively this season so far (4.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) but quarterback Brandon Cox has proven the last two years that he’s certainly capable of playing better. Vanderbilt does have a solid defense but the Commodores’ offense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average this season (0.2 yppl worse than average with Chris Nickson under center) and Auburn’s defense has allowed just 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive unit. The loss of DE Quentin Groves is worth 1.5 points based on my analysis but my math model still favors Auburn by 10 points and the situation is favorable. The only negative is Vanderbilt’s 11-2 ATS mark as a road underdog the previous 3 seasons, but I’ll consider Auburn a Strong Opinion at -9 points or less and I’d take Auburn in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Arizona St. (-8.0) 37 WASHINGTON ST. 23
01:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
I rated Arizona State as the 6th best team in the nation before the season started and the Sun Devils have not disappointed so far. ASU is 0.8 yards per play better than average on offense (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the Sun Devils are 1.2 yppl better than average defensively – allowing just 4.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. Washington State is a decent team, rating at 0.6 yppl better than average on offense and 0.5 yppl worse than average on defense, but they are not likely to keep this game within single
s. I’ll consider Arizona State a Strong Opinion at -9 points or less and I’d take ASU in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Fresno St. 26 NEVADA (-3.5) 24
01:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Nevada is a perfect 12-0 ATS as a home favorite under coach Ault while Fresno State is only 5-17 ATS in conference road games against teams with a win percentage of .400 or better in 11 seasons under coach Pat Hill. Those are the only things keeping me making Fresno a solid Best Bet, as the Bulldogs appear to be a much better team than Nevada. Nevada’s offense is certainly good, averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team, but Fresno has given up just 4.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. The Bulldogs held Texas A&M to 4.5 yppl (the Aggies would average 5.7 yppl at home against an average team) and they limited a great Oregon offense to 6.6 yppl, which is good considering that the Ducks would average 7.2 yppl at home against an average defense. Nevada has been great offensively the last 3 weeks against bad defensive teams but the Wolf Pack were held to 185 yards at 3.6 yppl by a mediocre Nebraska defense in week 1 and they could have trouble against Fresno’s good defense too. Fresno State’s offense rates at 0.6 yppl worse than average but Nevada is 0.8 yppl worse than average on defense and has allowed an average of 271 yards at 5.9 yards per rushing play in 4 games against teams that would average only 4.1 yprp against an average defensive team. Fresno would love to establish the run and they should be able to in this game. My math model favors Fresno State by 8 ½ points but I decided to use only Nevada’s home game stats since they are so much better at home than they’ve been on the road under coach Ault. Using only Nevada’s home games would still result in the math favoring Fresno by 2 ½ points and I’ll consider Fresno State a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more despite the negative team trends.
Strong Opinion
Virginia Tech 20 CLEMSON (-5.5) 21
03:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Virginia Tech was expected to be one of the top-10 teams in the nation but their offense has held them back and the Hokies are having a tough time scoring despite great field position bestowed upon them by their defense and special teams. Virginia Tech has averaged only 4.6 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the attack hasn’t gotten any better in 3 games with freshman Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Clemson has a good defense (4.4 yppl allowed) but the Tigers can be run against (4.6 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yprp) and Virginia Tech has a decent rushing attack now that Taylor is adding good yardage from the quarterback position (24 runs for 192 yards). The Hokies’ defense had one horrible game against LSU (599 yards at 8.3 yppl) but they’ve played very well in every other game and held a good North Carolina attack to just 4.4 yppl and 10 points last week. Clemson has a good offense (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but Virginia Tech’s defense is even better, so the Hokies can stay competitive in this game with defense and their great special teams. How good are the Virginia Tech special teams? The Hokies have been out-gained 286 yards at 4.6 yppl to 312 yards at 4.6 yppl and are -1 in turnovers yet they’ve out-scored their opponents by 7.6 points per game thanks to their special teams. Clemson has horrible special teams and I expect at least one big special teams play by the Hokies in this game. With last week’s upset loss at Georgia Tech Clemson is now just 11-25-1 ATS as a conference favorite under coach Bowden, including 4-17-1 ATS if facing a team with a win percentage of .400 or higher. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, applies to a 54-10 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. Clemson is a much better team from the line of scrimmage but my math model favors the Tigers by just 5 ½ points – so the line is fair. The situation certainly favors the Hokies and I’ll consider Virginia Tech a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more and I’d make Virginia Tech a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Colorado (-8.5) 33 BAYLOR 19
04:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Colorado is coming off a huge upset over Oklahoma and the possible letdown is the only thing keeping me from making the underrated Buffaloes a Best Bet. Colorado’s defense has been outstanding all season, allowing just 4.5 yards per play to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team, but the Buffaloes aren’t bad on offense anymore. Colorado has faced a schedule full of very good defensive teams (Arizona State, Florida State, Oklahoma), which is why they’ve averaged just 5.0 yppl (with starting quarterback Hawkins in the game). However, that 5.0 yppl looks pretty good when you consider that the Buffs have faced teams that would combine to allow just 4.8 yppl to an average team. Colorado 31 points against a mediocre Colorado State defense and 42 points against a Miami-Ohio defense that’s a little worse than average, so the Buffaloes should score a good number of points against a sub-par Baylor defense that’s surrendered 5.2 yppl to teams that would average only 4.9 yppp against an average team. The Bears, meanwhile, are worse than average offensively (5.5 yppl with starting QB Szymanski in the game, against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl) and they’ll have trouble scoring against the stingy Buffaloes’ stop unit. My math model favors Colorado by 18 points in this game but the Buffaloes do apply to a negative 33-73 ATS situation that is based on last week’s upset win. That situation is only worth 4 points, so there is still overall value in favor of the Buffs, and perhaps last season’s 31-34 triple overtime loss to Baylor will keep the Buffaloes from letting down. I’ll consider Colorado a Strong Opinion at -10 or less and I’d take Colorado in a 2-Star Best Bet at - 7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
MIDDLE TENN 23 Virginia (-10.5) 27
04:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Virginia is coming off a 44-14 home win over a decent Pitt squad but the Cavailers are simply a different team on the road and I expect them to stumble in this game without any real motivation to play hard. The Cavaliers are 28-12 ATS when motivated by the home crowd but just 12-23 ATS on the road under coach Al Groh. Groh’s team is also 20-11 ATS when motivated by a loss in their previous game and they’re 20-5 ATS with the revenge motive. Playing this game on the road after a win and spread win (with no revenge either) will make it tough for the Cavaliers to play well. In fact, Virginia is 0-16 ATS in their last 16 road games following a game in which they won and covered the spread (0- 14 ATS under Groh) and the Cavaliers also qualify in a very negative 18-73-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation while Middle Tennessee applies to a solid 77-32-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation. The situations favoring Middle Tennessee would give the Blue Raiders a 62.3% chance of covering at a fair line (based on the historical predictability of my situational analysis), but the fair line in this game is 13 points. With that being the case the Raiders have 55.9% chance of covering at +10 points which is not quite good enough to make them a Best Bet. I’ll consider Middle Tennessee State a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more and I’d make Middle Tennessee a Best Bet at +11 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Ohio St. (-7.0) 31 PURDUE 19
05:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Both of these teams are 5-0 but only Ohio State is legit. The Boilermakers’ 5 wins have all come against bad teams that are an average of 11 points worse than average while Ohio State has faced a schedule that is just 2 points worse than average and proved themselves with a convincing 33-14 win at Washington – a team that nearly beat USC last week. Purdue’s offense has generated 6.6 yards per play, but they’ve done so against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team and being only 0.6 yppl better than average offensively is not going to cut it against a dominating Ohio State defense that’s yielded just 3.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine for 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The Buckeyes also have a significant advantage when they have the ball, as they rate at 0.4 yppl better than average with starting quarterback Todd Boeckman under center (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) while Purdue has been 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively by allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would average only 4.8 yppl against an average defense. The Boilermakers just gave up 433 yards at 5.6 yppl to a horrible Notre Dame attack that has averaged only 3.3 yppl for the season. Ohio State also has an edge in special teams and this looks like a comfortable win for the Buckeyes. I’ll consider Ohio State a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less and I’d take Ohio State in a 2- Star Best Bet at -5 or less.
Strong Opinion
RUTGERS (-3.5) 34 Cincinnati 24
05:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
The Scarlet Knights let me down last week in their 24-34 loss to Maryland but they did out play the Terrapins 5.9 yards per play to 5.5 yppl (they were -3 in turnover margin) so they weren’t as bad as the score made them appear to be. Cincinnati, meanwhile, moved their record to 5-0 and the Bearcats are now +14 in turnover margin for the season, which disguises the fact that they are not that much better than an average team. Cincy has averaged 6.5 yppl on offense, but they’ve faced teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team, and the Bearcats are just average on defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 4.9 yppl against an average defense). Cincinnati is not going to be +2.8 turnovers per game going forward and they are going to need to be to beat a Rutgers team that rates at 1.6 yppl better than average on offense (7.9 yppl against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average team) and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively (4.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average stop unit). Rutgers didn’t play well last week against a mediocre Maryland team but they are better than Cincinnati and the Scarlet Knights are 13-5 ATS after a loss since 2003. I’ll consider Rutgers a Strong Opinion at -5 points or less and I’d take Rutgers in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
Rotation #388 UCLA (-20 1/2) 4-Stars at -21 or less, 3-Stars from -21 1/2 to -24, 2- Stars from -24 1/2 to -26.
Rotation #355 Nebraska (+7) 3-Stars at +7 or more, 2-Stars from +6 1/2 to +6.
Rotation # 361 Georgia (+1) 3-Stars at pick or dog, 2-Stars from -1 to -2.
Rotation #377 Georgia Tech (-2 1/2) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars at -3 1/2 or -4.
Rotation #383 Florida (+7 1/2) 3-Stars at +7 1/2 or more, 2-Stars from +7 to +6.
Rotation #320 Michigan State (-14 1/2) 2-Stars at -16 or less, 3-Stars at -14 or less.
Rotation #371 Arizona (+4) 2-Stars at +3 or more.
4 Star Selection
****UCLA (-20.5) 39 Notre Dame 6
05:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
UCLA should have won last year’s game against the Irish in South Bend and I doubt that the Bruins will feel sorry for Notre Dame today in a complete mismatch. The Irish finally mustered some offense last week against a sub-par Purdue defense but Notre Dame’s offense has been buried by teams that can put pressure on the quarterback and UCLA can certainly do that. For the season the Irish attack (if you can call it that) has averaged a pathetic 3.3 yards per play and UCLA’s solid defensive unit (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) will bring the heat with sack specialist Bruce Davis (16 sacks since last season) and a slew of other blitzing defenders. My math model projects just 3.5 yppl for Notre Dame in this game and that’s with the more effective Evan Sharpley at quarterback for injured freshman Jimmy Clausen (who may actually play, making it even worse for the Irish attack). Notre Dame does have a solid defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl) but UCLA is even better offensively, averaging 5.7 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.1 yppl to an average attack. That unit will be blessed with good field position given to them by their defense and superior special teams and my math model favors the Bruins by 28 points in this game. In addition to the line value UCLA applies to a very strong 93-29-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator and the Bruins play their best football at home, where they are 18-7-2 ATS under coach Dorrell (2-0 ATS this year). I’ll take UCLA in a 4-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less, for 3-Stars from -21 ½ to -24 points and for 2-Stars from -24 ½ to -26 points.
3 Star Selection
***Georgia Tech (-2.5) 27 MARYLAND 16
09:00 AM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Both of these teams are coming off upset wins but it’s Maryland that applies to a negative 13-40 ATS letdown situation while Georgia Tech applies to a very strong 73-25 ATS statistical match-up indicator. The match-up certainly does favor the Yellow Jackets, as their duo of star running backs Tashard Choice and Jonathan Dwyer (combined to run for 762 yards at 5.8 ypr and 11 touchdowns) will move the chains all day long against a Maryland defense that gas allowed 5.2 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average defense). The Terrapins do defend the pass well but Georgia Tech won’t have to throw too often in this one and Maryland isn’t likely to move the ball by land or by air against a good Yellow Jackets defense that rates at 0.8 yards per play better than average. Georgia Tech is particularly good defending the run (3.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp), so I don’t expect Maryland’s run heavy attack (60% running plays but just average running the ball) to perform very well in this game. Maryland’s backup quarterback Chris Turner came off the bench last week for an injured Jordan Steffy and played well against Rutgers but I doubt that Turner is much better (if at all better) than Steffy and Maryland’s pass attack is normally very poor. Georgia Tech should also win the battle of field position in this game, as their special teams rate as one of the best in the nation. Overall, my math model favors the Yellow Jackets by 9 points in this game and the technical analysis favors them as well. I’ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and I’ll make them a 2-Star at -3 ½ or -4 points.
3 Star Selection
***Georgia 34 TENNESSEE (-1.0) 24
12:30 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Tennessee has no right being favored in this game. The Volunteers have been beaten soundly by the only two good teams that they’ve faced, losing by 14 points at Cal and by 39 points at Florida and playing this game at home is not going to help. Tennessee has a history of playing poorly against good conference foes in Knoxville under coach Fulmer, as the Vols are only 8-23-1 ATS in his tenure when hosting a conference foe with a win percentage of .666 or higher, including 5-21 ATS when not getting at least 3 points (0- 13 ATS since 2001). Even having last week off isn’t going to help Fulmer, as he’s 0-9 ATS in that role after a bye week. Georgia coach Mark Richt, meanwhile, has a habit of beating good teams on the road and his Bulldogs are now 16-5 ATS on the road when not laying 10 points or more, including a straight up win at Alabama a few weeks ago. Georgia is also a much better team than Tennessee. The Bulldogs haven’t been great offensively this season (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) but Tennessee has been a disaster on defense (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense) and they’ve been 0.5 yppl worse than average or worse defensively in all 4 of their games this season (compensating for strength of opposing offenses, of course). Aside from Cal and Florida averaging a combined 8.0 yppl the Vols also gave up 5.4 yppl at home to Southern Miss and Arkansas State, who would combine to average only 4.8 yppl on the road against an average defensive team. Tennessee does have a better than average offensive unit (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl) and they are a bit better than that now that Eric Ainge has a healthy throwing hand (his broken pinky finger made it tough for him to throw down the field in the first couple of games), but Georgia’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average and has the advantage in that match-up. My math model favors Georgia by 8 ½ points even after adjusting Ainge’s passing numbers to last year’s level and I’ll take Georgia in a 3-Star Best Bet as an underdog or pick and for 2-Stars from -1 to -2 points.
3 Star Selection
***Florida 25 LSU (-7.5) 24
05:25 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Florida was caught looking ahead to this game and the Gators paid for that by losing to Auburn. However, that upset loss sets the Gators up in a very strong 61-10 ATS situation that has been very good to me over the years. LSU, meanwhile, applies to a negative 29- 67-1 ATS situation and I certainly don’t mind taking the extra points that is the result of last week’s result. Florida certainly didn’t play that poorly last week, as they out- gained Auburn 5.7 yards per play to 4.7 yppl, which is actually 1.6 yppl better than average after compensating for level of opponent and site. LSU, meanwhile, only out- gained Tulane 5.6 yppl to 3.5 yppl, which is only 0.6 yppl better than average when factoring in that Tulane would be out-gained by 1.5 yppl at home against an average team. So LSU actually played worse last week than Florida, so the extra point we’re getting this week is a bit of a gift. LSU has been struggling offensively with Matt Flynn at quarterback, as the Tigers have been only 0.5 yppl better than average with Flynn under center (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average offense). Florida’s defense has only been 0.4 yppl better than average (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense), so LSU’s attack with Flynn at quarterback has only a 0.1 yppl edge over Florida’s defense. LSU’s defense has been incredible in allowing just 2.9 yppl in 5 games (to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average stop unit), but Florida has been 2.0 yppl better than average offensively this season (7.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), so the Tigers also have just a 0.1 yppl advantage over the Gators’ offense. These teams are very close from a yards per play perspective and my math model only favors LSU by 5 ½ points here in Baton Rouge. With a strong situation and line value on our side I’ll take Florida in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ points or more and for 2-Stars from +7 to +6 points.
3 Star Selection
***Nebraska 38 MISSOURI (-7.0) 37
06:15 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
I was surprised that Missouri was favored by so much over a good Nebraska team. I realize that Nebraska’s defense has come into question in recent weeks after getting run over by USC and then allowing Ball State to rack up 610 yards at 40 points the next week, but Nebraska’s defense is actually better than Missouri’s defense and both teams are pretty close offensively. Nebraska has allowed 5.4 yards per play for the season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team, so their defense really isn’t as bad as it looked in those two games. Missouri’s defense, however, has played worse than average in all 4 of their games this season (relative to who and where they were playing) and the Tigers have allowed 5.6 yppl to teams that would average only 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. Missouri is slightly better offensively (1.0 yppl better than average compared to Nebraska’s +0.8 yppl offensive rating) but these two teams are about the same from a compensated yards per play basis and Nebraska has the edge in special teams while Missouri has a 1.7 points edge in projected turnovers. Overall, my math model favors Nebraska by 1 ½ points and the Cornhuskers apply to a decent 61-29-1 ATS situation that is based on their recent pointspread failures. I’ll take Nebraska in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 2-Stars at +6 ½ or +6 points (strong opinion at +5 ½ or +5 points.
2 Star Selection
**MICHIGAN ST. (-14.5) 40 Northwestern 17
09:00 AM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Northwestern was in a good situation last week against an overrated Michigan team and the Wildcats covered the spread in a 16-28 home loss. Competing on the road against a good Michigan State team is another story and Northwestern looks overmatched in this game. The Wildcats have averaged just 5.0 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and that unit will struggle against a solid Spartans’ defense that has been 0.4 yppl better than average this season (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team). There is an equally decisive mismatch on the other side of the ball, as Michigan State’s balanced attack has been 0.5 yppl better than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) is likely to move the ball consistently against a Wildcats’ defense that is 0.6 yppl worse than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team). Northwestern is particularly bad defending the pass (7.6 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppp), so Spartans’ quarterback Brian Hoyer should have no trouble moving the chains on 3rd down if his good running backs Ringer (544 yards at 6.0 ypr) and Caulcrick (373 yards at 4.5 ypr) don’t take care of business on 1st and 2nd down. My math model projects a 500 yards to 298 yards advantage for Michigan State and that should result in a win of 20 points or more. I’ll take Michigan State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -16 points or less and for 3-Stars at -14 points or less.
2 Star Selection
**Arizona 31 OREGON ST. (-4.0) 26
01:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Arizona’s new pass-heavy Texas Tech style offense has struggled a bit against teams with good pass defenses (BYU and Cal), but quarterback Willie Tuitama torched a mediocre New Mexico pass defense 3 weeks ago (8.2 yards per pass play) and averaged 11.2 yppp in last week’s win over Washington State. Arizona matches up very well with an Oregon State defense that is one of the best in the nation at defending the run (3.0 yards per rushing play allowed) while rating at 0.5 yppp worse than average against the pass. The Beavers’ excellent run defense is really going to do them no good against a team that doesn’t care about the running the ball and I expect the Wildcats to move the ball well in this game. Oregon State’s offense will have a tough time keeping up with star WR Sammie Straughter now sidelined indefinitely with a kidney injury after carrying the offense for two weeks. Straughter was one of the best receivers in the nation last season (1293 yards at 17.5 ypc) and Oregon State’s inexperienced quarterbacks struggled the first two games with Straughter sitting out for personal reasons. Straughter returned to the starting lineup for weeks 3 and 4 and Oregon State’s offense totaled 1121 yards and 93 points in those two games, including racking up 514 yards at 6.4 yards per play against a very good Arizona State defense. Straughter caught 15 passes for 262 yards (17.5 ypc) in those two games but he sat out last week and the Beavers’ pass attack went with him (just 3.1 yppp against UCLA). Oregon State is about average in pass offense for the season, but the Beavers are 1.3 yppp worse than average in 3 games without Straughter (4.1 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average team). I actually rate OSU quarterback Sean Canfield at 0.5 yppp worse than average without Straughter and Canfield continues to throw interceptions at a high rate (11 on 163 passes while backup Moevao has thrown 4 picks). Oregon State’s rushing attack is just barely better than average (5.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) and the Beavers are a below average offensive team overall. Oregon State’s only offensive weapon is running back Yvenson Bernard, but Bernard has averaged a sub-par 4.5 ypr in his career (4.6 ypr this season) and Arizona is a good defending the run (3.8 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team). Overall Arizona rates at 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, so they have an advantage over the OSU attack. Arizona is the better team and I’ll take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (strong opinion from +1 to 2 ½).
Strong Opinion
Utah 26 LOUISVILLE (-14.5) 35
05:00 PM Pacific, 05-Oct-07
Louisville is a tough team to figure, as their defense can’t possibly be as bad as it was against Middle Tennessee State and Syracuse, who are two bad offensive teams that combined to average 40 points and 9.2 yards per play. Louisville has actually played better defensively when focused by the threat of a decent opponent, as they limited Kentucky to 5.8 yppl and held NC State to 5.3 yppl last week. Utah is certainly a team that Louisville has to take seriously even though the Utes have struggled offensively this season so far (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). The return of starting quarterback Brian Johnson to the starting lineup last week didn’t help, as the Utes managed just 5.2 yppl against a Utah State defense that would allow 6.6 yppl on the road to an average team. Utah certainly is capable of a good offensive game given their 5.5 yppl and 44 points they racked up on a good UCLA defense a few weeks ago. Utah does have a solid defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team), so they should slow down the potent Louisville attack (7.4 yppl) a bit. This game really depends on which Louisville defense shows up – the horrible unit that couldn’t stop Middle Tennessee or Syracuse or the unit that played at a decent level against Kentucky and NC State. If Louisville plays defensively at the level they played against the two teams that had to take seriously then my math model would favor the Cardinals by 14 ½ points, but the predicted margin would be considerably less if I use all 5 of Louisville’s games to get their defensive rating. At Louisville’s defensive best the Cardinals still don’t appear to have more than a 50% chance of covering and I’ll favor Utah plus the points.
Strong Opinion
AUBURN (-7.5) 28 Vanderbilt 14
09:30 AM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Auburn is coming off a huge upset win over Florida and you might think that the Tigers would be due for a letdown. That’s what I thought might be the case too until I looked up how home favorites perform after winning straight up as a double-
Strong Opinion
Arizona St. (-8.0) 37 WASHINGTON ST. 23
01:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
I rated Arizona State as the 6th best team in the nation before the season started and the Sun Devils have not disappointed so far. ASU is 0.8 yards per play better than average on offense (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the Sun Devils are 1.2 yppl better than average defensively – allowing just 4.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. Washington State is a decent team, rating at 0.6 yppl better than average on offense and 0.5 yppl worse than average on defense, but they are not likely to keep this game within single
Strong Opinion
Fresno St. 26 NEVADA (-3.5) 24
01:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Nevada is a perfect 12-0 ATS as a home favorite under coach Ault while Fresno State is only 5-17 ATS in conference road games against teams with a win percentage of .400 or better in 11 seasons under coach Pat Hill. Those are the only things keeping me making Fresno a solid Best Bet, as the Bulldogs appear to be a much better team than Nevada. Nevada’s offense is certainly good, averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team, but Fresno has given up just 4.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. The Bulldogs held Texas A&M to 4.5 yppl (the Aggies would average 5.7 yppl at home against an average team) and they limited a great Oregon offense to 6.6 yppl, which is good considering that the Ducks would average 7.2 yppl at home against an average defense. Nevada has been great offensively the last 3 weeks against bad defensive teams but the Wolf Pack were held to 185 yards at 3.6 yppl by a mediocre Nebraska defense in week 1 and they could have trouble against Fresno’s good defense too. Fresno State’s offense rates at 0.6 yppl worse than average but Nevada is 0.8 yppl worse than average on defense and has allowed an average of 271 yards at 5.9 yards per rushing play in 4 games against teams that would average only 4.1 yprp against an average defensive team. Fresno would love to establish the run and they should be able to in this game. My math model favors Fresno State by 8 ½ points but I decided to use only Nevada’s home game stats since they are so much better at home than they’ve been on the road under coach Ault. Using only Nevada’s home games would still result in the math favoring Fresno by 2 ½ points and I’ll consider Fresno State a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more despite the negative team trends.
Strong Opinion
Virginia Tech 20 CLEMSON (-5.5) 21
03:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Virginia Tech was expected to be one of the top-10 teams in the nation but their offense has held them back and the Hokies are having a tough time scoring despite great field position bestowed upon them by their defense and special teams. Virginia Tech has averaged only 4.6 yards per play this season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the attack hasn’t gotten any better in 3 games with freshman Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Clemson has a good defense (4.4 yppl allowed) but the Tigers can be run against (4.6 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.6 yprp) and Virginia Tech has a decent rushing attack now that Taylor is adding good yardage from the quarterback position (24 runs for 192 yards). The Hokies’ defense had one horrible game against LSU (599 yards at 8.3 yppl) but they’ve played very well in every other game and held a good North Carolina attack to just 4.4 yppl and 10 points last week. Clemson has a good offense (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl), but Virginia Tech’s defense is even better, so the Hokies can stay competitive in this game with defense and their great special teams. How good are the Virginia Tech special teams? The Hokies have been out-gained 286 yards at 4.6 yppl to 312 yards at 4.6 yppl and are -1 in turnovers yet they’ve out-scored their opponents by 7.6 points per game thanks to their special teams. Clemson has horrible special teams and I expect at least one big special teams play by the Hokies in this game. With last week’s upset loss at Georgia Tech Clemson is now just 11-25-1 ATS as a conference favorite under coach Bowden, including 4-17-1 ATS if facing a team with a win percentage of .400 or higher. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, applies to a 54-10 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. Clemson is a much better team from the line of scrimmage but my math model favors the Tigers by just 5 ½ points – so the line is fair. The situation certainly favors the Hokies and I’ll consider Virginia Tech a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more and I’d make Virginia Tech a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Colorado (-8.5) 33 BAYLOR 19
04:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Colorado is coming off a huge upset over Oklahoma and the possible letdown is the only thing keeping me from making the underrated Buffaloes a Best Bet. Colorado’s defense has been outstanding all season, allowing just 4.5 yards per play to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team, but the Buffaloes aren’t bad on offense anymore. Colorado has faced a schedule full of very good defensive teams (Arizona State, Florida State, Oklahoma), which is why they’ve averaged just 5.0 yppl (with starting quarterback Hawkins in the game). However, that 5.0 yppl looks pretty good when you consider that the Buffs have faced teams that would combine to allow just 4.8 yppl to an average team. Colorado 31 points against a mediocre Colorado State defense and 42 points against a Miami-Ohio defense that’s a little worse than average, so the Buffaloes should score a good number of points against a sub-par Baylor defense that’s surrendered 5.2 yppl to teams that would average only 4.9 yppp against an average team. The Bears, meanwhile, are worse than average offensively (5.5 yppl with starting QB Szymanski in the game, against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl) and they’ll have trouble scoring against the stingy Buffaloes’ stop unit. My math model favors Colorado by 18 points in this game but the Buffaloes do apply to a negative 33-73 ATS situation that is based on last week’s upset win. That situation is only worth 4 points, so there is still overall value in favor of the Buffs, and perhaps last season’s 31-34 triple overtime loss to Baylor will keep the Buffaloes from letting down. I’ll consider Colorado a Strong Opinion at -10 or less and I’d take Colorado in a 2-Star Best Bet at - 7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
MIDDLE TENN 23 Virginia (-10.5) 27
04:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Virginia is coming off a 44-14 home win over a decent Pitt squad but the Cavailers are simply a different team on the road and I expect them to stumble in this game without any real motivation to play hard. The Cavaliers are 28-12 ATS when motivated by the home crowd but just 12-23 ATS on the road under coach Al Groh. Groh’s team is also 20-11 ATS when motivated by a loss in their previous game and they’re 20-5 ATS with the revenge motive. Playing this game on the road after a win and spread win (with no revenge either) will make it tough for the Cavaliers to play well. In fact, Virginia is 0-16 ATS in their last 16 road games following a game in which they won and covered the spread (0- 14 ATS under Groh) and the Cavaliers also qualify in a very negative 18-73-1 ATS road favorite letdown situation while Middle Tennessee applies to a solid 77-32-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation. The situations favoring Middle Tennessee would give the Blue Raiders a 62.3% chance of covering at a fair line (based on the historical predictability of my situational analysis), but the fair line in this game is 13 points. With that being the case the Raiders have 55.9% chance of covering at +10 points which is not quite good enough to make them a Best Bet. I’ll consider Middle Tennessee State a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more and I’d make Middle Tennessee a Best Bet at +11 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Ohio St. (-7.0) 31 PURDUE 19
05:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
Both of these teams are 5-0 but only Ohio State is legit. The Boilermakers’ 5 wins have all come against bad teams that are an average of 11 points worse than average while Ohio State has faced a schedule that is just 2 points worse than average and proved themselves with a convincing 33-14 win at Washington – a team that nearly beat USC last week. Purdue’s offense has generated 6.6 yards per play, but they’ve done so against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team and being only 0.6 yppl better than average offensively is not going to cut it against a dominating Ohio State defense that’s yielded just 3.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine for 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The Buckeyes also have a significant advantage when they have the ball, as they rate at 0.4 yppl better than average with starting quarterback Todd Boeckman under center (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) while Purdue has been 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively by allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would average only 4.8 yppl against an average defense. The Boilermakers just gave up 433 yards at 5.6 yppl to a horrible Notre Dame attack that has averaged only 3.3 yppl for the season. Ohio State also has an edge in special teams and this looks like a comfortable win for the Buckeyes. I’ll consider Ohio State a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less and I’d take Ohio State in a 2- Star Best Bet at -5 or less.
Strong Opinion
RUTGERS (-3.5) 34 Cincinnati 24
05:00 PM Pacific, 06-Oct-07
The Scarlet Knights let me down last week in their 24-34 loss to Maryland but they did out play the Terrapins 5.9 yards per play to 5.5 yppl (they were -3 in turnover margin) so they weren’t as bad as the score made them appear to be. Cincinnati, meanwhile, moved their record to 5-0 and the Bearcats are now +14 in turnover margin for the season, which disguises the fact that they are not that much better than an average team. Cincy has averaged 6.5 yppl on offense, but they’ve faced teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team, and the Bearcats are just average on defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 4.9 yppl against an average defense). Cincinnati is not going to be +2.8 turnovers per game going forward and they are going to need to be to beat a Rutgers team that rates at 1.6 yppl better than average on offense (7.9 yppl against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average team) and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively (4.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl against an average stop unit). Rutgers didn’t play well last week against a mediocre Maryland team but they are better than Cincinnati and the Scarlet Knights are 13-5 ATS after a loss since 2003. I’ll consider Rutgers a Strong Opinion at -5 points or less and I’d take Rutgers in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
spanishshark
Youngest guy on the forum
Georgia Tech (-2.5) 27 MARYLAND 16 Agree
Florida 25 LSU (-7.5) 24 Disagree LSU wins and covers
Florida 25 LSU (-7.5) 24 Disagree LSU wins and covers
frankiegotti
Power Boat Enthusiast
hopefully that LSU line moves down, i like GT but i don't know if i will pull the trigger as the wood being laid will be obscenly high.
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
Time to start watching the games instead of always depending on the math model, Bobby.
sjsjsj
Pretty much a regular
facebook consensus :36_11_6:
luvthemcowboys
Pretty much a regular
fuck I really liked the gators.
I dont care im going with them anyway
I dont care im going with them anyway
luvthemcowboys
Pretty much a regular
I just check bm and took fl ml 250 had no idea bob could move lines like that.
could have gotten it yesterday for 300
could have gotten it yesterday for 300
GoBucksIndy
Pretty much a regular
DBob is looking awful again. The way he's running I may fade his late night games.
GoBucksIndy
Pretty much a regular
1-6 -14 Stars wow :4_6_202v:..... there are some pissed off customers right now.
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